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<front>
<journal-meta>
<journal-id journal-id-type="publisher">EGUsphere</journal-id>
<journal-title-group>
<journal-title>EGUsphere</journal-title>
<abbrev-journal-title abbrev-type="publisher">EGUsphere</abbrev-journal-title>
<abbrev-journal-title abbrev-type="nlm-ta">EGUsphere</abbrev-journal-title>
</journal-title-group>
<issn pub-type="epub"></issn>
<publisher><publisher-name>Copernicus Publications</publisher-name>
<publisher-loc>Göttingen, Germany</publisher-loc>
</publisher>
</journal-meta>
<article-meta>
<article-id pub-id-type="doi">10.5194/egusphere-2026-4899</article-id>
<title-group>
<article-title>Response of vegetation hydroclimatic stress indicators to global warming and deforestation in the Amazon rainforest</article-title>
</title-group>
<contrib-group><contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Ferreira Correa</surname>
<given-names>Lucas</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1066-3292</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1">
<sup>1</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Bathiany</surname>
<given-names>Sebastian</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9904-1619</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff2">
<sup>2</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Moustakis</surname>
<given-names>Yiannis</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff3">
<sup>3</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Pongratz</surname>
<given-names>Julia</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0372-3960</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1">
<sup>1</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
</contrib-group><aff id="aff1">
<label>1</label>
<addr-line>Department of Geography, Ludwig-Maximilians-Universität München, Munich, 80333, Germany</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff2">
<label>2</label>
<addr-line>Earth System Modelling Group, Department of Aerospace and Geodesy, TUM School of Engineering and Design, Technical University of Munich, Munich Climate Center, Ottobrunn, 85521, Germany</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff3">
<label>3</label>
<addr-line>Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Imperial College London, London, SW7 2AZ, United Kingdom</addr-line>
</aff>
<pub-date pub-type="epub">
<day>11</day>
<month>09</month>
<year>2026</year>
</pub-date>
<volume>2026</volume>
<fpage>1</fpage>
<lpage>31</lpage>
<permissions>
<copyright-statement>Copyright: &#x000a9; 2026 Lucas Ferreira Correa et al.</copyright-statement>
<copyright-year>2026</copyright-year>
<license license-type="open-access">
<license-p>This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License. To view a copy of this licence, visit <ext-link ext-link-type="uri"  xlink:href="https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/</ext-link></license-p>
</license>
</permissions>
<self-uri xlink:href="https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2026/egusphere-2026-4899/">This article is available from https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2026/egusphere-2026-4899/</self-uri>
<self-uri xlink:href="https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2026/egusphere-2026-4899/egusphere-2026-4899.pdf">The full text article is available as a PDF file from https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2026/egusphere-2026-4899/egusphere-2026-4899.pdf</self-uri>
<abstract>
<p>The Amazon rainforest (ARF) plays a key role in regulating the global climate, sustaining exceptional biodiversity, and supporting the cultures of indigenous peoples and local communities. The ARF is also considered a tipping element, as deforestation and global warming may impose sufficient stress to trigger a transition to a tropical savanna state. However, the climate and vegetation responses to deforestation and global warming, as well as associated tipping thresholds, remain incompletely understood. Here, we examine the response of four hydroclimatic indicators to deforestation and warming and discuss their implications for forest stability. We performed four idealized ARF deforestation experiments with the Earth System Model MPI-ESM-HR at 2 &amp;deg;C of global warming. These scenarios were compared against two intact-forest scenarios for pre-industrial climate and for 2 &amp;deg;C warming. Our results show that deforestation of 25 % of the forest area can lead to 70 % being under significant hydroclimatic stress. The area under stress increases to 89 % when combining 25 % deforestation and 2 &amp;deg;C warming, exceeding the deforestation-only effects of 50 % deforestation (82 %). Mean Annual Precipitation (MAP) and Dry Season Length (DSL) show the strongest changes, but behave differently: MAP decreases strongly in and near newly deforested areas, while DSL increases across large forest regions downstream of the deforested areas. Although the rainforest remains stable in the model, the enhanced hydroclimatic stress would likely increase tree mortality in the real world if vegetation cannot adapt. Our results hence emphasize the risk of forest dieback at forcing levels that can be reached within the next few decades.</p>
</abstract>
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<funding-group>
<award-group id="gs1">
<funding-source>HORIZON EUROPE Framework Programme</funding-source>
<award-id>101137601</award-id>
</award-group>
</funding-group>
</article-meta>
</front>
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