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<front>
<journal-meta>
<journal-id journal-id-type="publisher">EGUsphere</journal-id>
<journal-title-group>
<journal-title>EGUsphere</journal-title>
<abbrev-journal-title abbrev-type="publisher">EGUsphere</abbrev-journal-title>
<abbrev-journal-title abbrev-type="nlm-ta">EGUsphere</abbrev-journal-title>
</journal-title-group>
<issn pub-type="epub"></issn>
<publisher><publisher-name>Copernicus Publications</publisher-name>
<publisher-loc>Göttingen, Germany</publisher-loc>
</publisher>
</journal-meta>
<article-meta>
<article-id pub-id-type="doi">10.5194/egusphere-2026-4864</article-id>
<title-group>
<article-title>Constraining the Effects of Anthropogenic Emissions and Meteorological Variabilities on summertime PM&lt;sub&gt;2.5&lt;/sub&gt; and surface ozone changes over eastern China during 2015&amp;ndash;2024</article-title>
</title-group>
<contrib-group><contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Zeng</surname>
<given-names>Ganquan</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1">
<sup>1</sup>
</xref>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff2">
<sup>2</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Weng</surname>
<given-names>Xiang</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0957-9640</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1">
<sup>1</sup>
</xref>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff2">
<sup>2</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Wang</surname>
<given-names>Haofan</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0009-0006-9568-512X</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff3">
<sup>3</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Wang</surname>
<given-names>Haolin</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8783-3782</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff4">
<sup>4</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Li</surname>
<given-names>Shuai</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0009-0000-7276-2184</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1">
<sup>1</sup>
</xref>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff2">
<sup>2</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>He</surname>
<given-names>Guowen</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0746-4057</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1">
<sup>1</sup>
</xref>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff2">
<sup>2</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Li</surname>
<given-names>Ke</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9181-3562</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff5">
<sup>5</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Gao</surname>
<given-names>Meng</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8657-3541</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff6">
<sup>6</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Lu</surname>
<given-names>Xiao</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5989-0912</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1">
<sup>1</sup>
</xref>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff2">
<sup>2</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
</contrib-group><aff id="aff1">
<label>1</label>
<addr-line>School of Atmospheric Sciences, Sun Yat-sen University, and Southern Marine Science and Engineering Guangdong Laboratory (Zhuhai), Zhuhai, 519082, China</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff2">
<label>2</label>
<addr-line>Guangdong Provincial Observation and Research Station for Climate Environment and Air Quality Change in the Pearl River Estuary, Zhuhai, 519082, China</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff3">
<label>3</label>
<addr-line>College of Resources and Environment, Chengdu University of Information Technology, Chengdu, 610225, China</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff4">
<label>4</label>
<addr-line>School of GeoSciences, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, EH9 3FF, UK</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff5">
<label>5</label>
<addr-line>Jiangsu Key Laboratory of Atmospheric Environment Monitoring and Pollution Control, Collaborative Innovation Center of Atmospheric Environment and Equipment Technology, School of Environmental Science and Engineering, Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Nanjing, 210044, China</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff6">
<label>6</label>
<addr-line>Department of Geography, Hong Kong Baptist University, Hong Kong SAR, China</addr-line>
</aff>
<pub-date pub-type="epub">
<day>31</day>
<month>08</month>
<year>2026</year>
</pub-date>
<volume>2026</volume>
<fpage>1</fpage>
<lpage>34</lpage>
<permissions>
<copyright-statement>Copyright: &#x000a9; 2026 Ganquan Zeng et al.</copyright-statement>
<copyright-year>2026</copyright-year>
<license license-type="open-access">
<license-p>This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License. To view a copy of this licence, visit <ext-link ext-link-type="uri"  xlink:href="https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/</ext-link></license-p>
</license>
</permissions>
<self-uri xlink:href="https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2026/egusphere-2026-4864/">This article is available from https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2026/egusphere-2026-4864/</self-uri>
<self-uri xlink:href="https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2026/egusphere-2026-4864/egusphere-2026-4864.pdf">The full text article is available as a PDF file from https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2026/egusphere-2026-4864/egusphere-2026-4864.pdf</self-uri>
<abstract>
<p>Severe fine particulate matter (PM&lt;sub&gt;2.5&lt;/sub&gt;) and ozone pollution pose major air quality concerns in China. Chemical transport models (CTMs) are widely used to attribute their long-term trends to anthropogenic emissions and meteorological variabilities, but inherent uncertainties often yield inconsistent results across models. Here, we develop a bias correction framework that integrates a multi-layer perceptron (MLP) neural network to jointly constrain PM&lt;sub&gt;2.5&lt;/sub&gt; and ozone attributions simulated by two independent CTMs, CMAQ and GEOS-Chem, over eastern China during 2015&lt;span&gt;&amp;ndash;&lt;/span&gt;2024. This framework improves simulated pollutant concentrations, spatial distributions, and interannual variabilities, providing a robust foundation for attribution analysis. During 2015&lt;span&gt;&amp;ndash;&lt;/span&gt;2024, anthropogenic emission changes accounted for 69&lt;span&gt;&amp;ndash;&lt;/span&gt;83 % of the observed PM&lt;sub&gt;2.5&lt;/sub&gt; decline and 56&lt;span&gt;&amp;ndash;&lt;/span&gt;63 % of ozone changes across both corrected models, with meteorological variabilities contributing the remainder. Emission changes dominate the PM&lt;sub&gt;2.5&lt;/sub&gt; decreases in 2015&lt;span&gt;&amp;ndash;&lt;/span&gt;2019, but the benefits weaken during 2019&lt;span&gt;&amp;ndash;&lt;/span&gt;2024 despite continued declines in major PM&lt;sub&gt;2.5&lt;/sub&gt; precursors. For ozone, anthropogenic emissions drive increases during 2015&lt;span&gt;&amp;ndash;&lt;/span&gt;2019, but become effective for mitigating ozone thereafter. Meteorological variabilities exacerbate ozone increase in 2015&lt;span&gt;&amp;ndash;&lt;/span&gt;2019 but exert smaller impacts in later years. Crucially, the MLP correction reduces the inter-model attribution discrepancies from 136 % to 14 % for PM&lt;sub&gt;2.5&lt;/sub&gt; and from 19 % to 8 % for ozone. These findings confirm the dominant role of emission changes in decadal (2015&lt;span&gt;&amp;ndash;&lt;/span&gt;2024) trends in summertime PM&lt;sub&gt;2.5&lt;/sub&gt; and ozone in China, and underscore that sustained, coordinated emission reductions remain essential for mitigating both pollutants. Furthermore, they highlight the value of coupling state-of-the-art, mechanism-based CTMs with machine learning to reliably attribute long-term air quality trends.</p>
</abstract>
<counts><page-count count="34"/></counts>
<funding-group>
<award-group id="gs1">
<funding-source>National Key Research and Development Program of China</funding-source>
<award-id>2024YFC3714200</award-id>
</award-group>
<award-group id="gs2">
<funding-source>National Natural Science Foundation of China</funding-source>
<award-id>42375092</award-id>
</award-group>
<award-group id="gs3">
<funding-source>Basic and Applied Basic Research Foundation of Guangdong Province</funding-source>
<award-id>2025B1515020034</award-id>
</award-group>
</funding-group>
</article-meta>
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