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<front>
<journal-meta>
<journal-id journal-id-type="publisher">EGUsphere</journal-id>
<journal-title-group>
<journal-title>EGUsphere</journal-title>
<abbrev-journal-title abbrev-type="publisher">EGUsphere</abbrev-journal-title>
<abbrev-journal-title abbrev-type="nlm-ta">EGUsphere</abbrev-journal-title>
</journal-title-group>
<issn pub-type="epub"></issn>
<publisher><publisher-name>Copernicus Publications</publisher-name>
<publisher-loc>Göttingen, Germany</publisher-loc>
</publisher>
</journal-meta>
<article-meta>
<article-id pub-id-type="doi">10.5194/egusphere-2026-4825</article-id>
<title-group>
<article-title>Future Projections of Extreme Wind and Precipitation Associated With Extratropical Cyclones Over North America using Regional Climate Simulations</article-title>
</title-group>
<contrib-group><contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>De Meyer</surname>
<given-names>Victorien</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6566-2716</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1">
<sup>1</sup>
</xref>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff2">
<sup>2</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Di Luca</surname>
<given-names>Alejandro</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1">
<sup>1</sup>
</xref>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff2">
<sup>2</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Chen</surname>
<given-names>Ting-Chen</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff3">
<sup>3</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
</contrib-group><aff id="aff1">
<label>1</label>
<addr-line>Centre ESCER, Université du Québec à Montréal, Montréal, QC, Canada</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff2">
<label>2</label>
<addr-line>Department of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, Université du Québec à Montréal, Montréal, QC, Canada</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff3">
<label>3</label>
<addr-line>Moody’s, London, United Kingdom</addr-line>
</aff>
<pub-date pub-type="epub">
<day>28</day>
<month>08</month>
<year>2026</year>
</pub-date>
<volume>2026</volume>
<fpage>1</fpage>
<lpage>41</lpage>
<permissions>
<copyright-statement>Copyright: &#x000a9; 2026 Victorien De Meyer et al.</copyright-statement>
<copyright-year>2026</copyright-year>
<license license-type="open-access">
<license-p>This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License. To view a copy of this licence, visit <ext-link ext-link-type="uri"  xlink:href="https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/</ext-link></license-p>
</license>
</permissions>
<self-uri xlink:href="https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2026/egusphere-2026-4825/">This article is available from https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2026/egusphere-2026-4825/</self-uri>
<self-uri xlink:href="https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2026/egusphere-2026-4825/egusphere-2026-4825.pdf">The full text article is available as a PDF file from https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2026/egusphere-2026-4825/egusphere-2026-4825.pdf</self-uri>
<abstract>
<p>Extratropical cyclones (ETCs) are a primary driver of extreme precipitation and near-surface wind speed across the mid-latitudes, with major societal and economic consequences over large parts of North America. Yet assessing the future impact of ETCs through the quantification of changes in their associated extremes remains a major challenge, owing to the coarse resolution of global models and the complex interplay of dynamical and thermodynamic mechanisms. Three regional climate simulations from the CRCM6-GEM5 model, covering the NA-CORDEX domain at 12 km grid spacing, and driven by boundary conditions from the EC-Earth3-Veg, MPI-ESM1-2-HR, and MIROC6 CMIP6 atmospheric-ocean general circulation models (AOGCMs), alongside an ERA5-driven simulation, are used to (i) assess the representation of ETC-associated extreme precipitation and &amp;nbsp;winds relative to the ERA5 reanalysis and (ii) project their late-century changes under the SSP3-7.0 scenario. To this end, a novel extreme exceedance framework is used to isolate changes into three physically interpretable drivers: the intensity of ETC-associated extremes, the background extreme threshold, and the frequency of co-occurrence of ETCs and extremes. CRCM6-GEM5 systematically produces stronger hourly extremes than the ERA5 reanalysis, for both precipitation and wind speed. The driving boundary conditions constitute the dominant source of inter-simulation spread in accumulated extreme exceedances, primarily through their control on the frequency of extreme ETC events. Under future climate forcing, all three simulations robustly project an amplification of ETC-associated extreme precipitation over northeastern North America and the adjacent northwestern North Atlantic, driven by a concurrent intensification in individual ETCs and increased occurrence. Elsewhere, large inter-simulation spread in the occurrence response precludes robust conclusions on projected changes. Applying the framework to the most extreme precipitation-producing systems impacting northeastern North America in the historical and future climates, we found a consistent intensification across multiple exceedance metrics in all three simulations. Future changes in ETC-associated extreme wind speed, however, show little coherence across simulations and are dominated by a redistribution of occurrence rather than any systematic intensification. These results underscore the critical role of large-scale boundary conditions in shaping regional projections.</p>
</abstract>
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<funding-group>
<award-group id="gs1">
<funding-source>Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada</funding-source>
<award-id>RGPIN--2020--05631</award-id>
<award-id>576492--2022</award-id>
</award-group>
</funding-group>
</article-meta>
</front>
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