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<front>
<journal-meta>
<journal-id journal-id-type="publisher">EGUsphere</journal-id>
<journal-title-group>
<journal-title>EGUsphere</journal-title>
<abbrev-journal-title abbrev-type="publisher">EGUsphere</abbrev-journal-title>
<abbrev-journal-title abbrev-type="nlm-ta">EGUsphere</abbrev-journal-title>
</journal-title-group>
<issn pub-type="epub"></issn>
<publisher><publisher-name>Copernicus Publications</publisher-name>
<publisher-loc>Göttingen, Germany</publisher-loc>
</publisher>
</journal-meta>
<article-meta>
<article-id pub-id-type="doi">10.5194/egusphere-2026-4812</article-id>
<title-group>
<article-title>Sustained Late-Nineteenth-Century Monsoon Drought in Seoul and the Indian Ocean&amp;ndash;North Atlantic Forcing of Its Circulation Weakening</article-title>
</title-group>
<contrib-group><contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Moon</surname>
<given-names>Byung-Kwon</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9005-7136</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1">
<sup>1</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
</contrib-group><aff id="aff1">
<label>1</label>
<addr-line>Division of Science Education and Institute of Fusion Science, Jeonbuk National University, Jeonju, 54896, Republic of  Korea</addr-line>
</aff>
<pub-date pub-type="epub">
<day>18</day>
<month>08</month>
<year>2026</year>
</pub-date>
<volume>2026</volume>
<fpage>1</fpage>
<lpage>13</lpage>
<permissions>
<copyright-statement>Copyright: &#x000a9; 2026 Byung-Kwon Moon</copyright-statement>
<copyright-year>2026</copyright-year>
<license license-type="open-access">
<license-p>This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License. To view a copy of this licence, visit <ext-link ext-link-type="uri"  xlink:href="https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/</ext-link></license-p>
</license>
</permissions>
<self-uri xlink:href="https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2026/egusphere-2026-4812/">This article is available from https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2026/egusphere-2026-4812/</self-uri>
<self-uri xlink:href="https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2026/egusphere-2026-4812/egusphere-2026-4812.pdf">The full text article is available as a PDF file from https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2026/egusphere-2026-4812/egusphere-2026-4812.pdf</self-uri>
<abstract>
<p>The Cheugugi rain-gauge record of Seoul, Republic of Korea (1777&amp;ndash;1907), is among the world&apos;s longest instrumental daily precipitation records and a rare quantitative gauge of the pre-industrial East Asian monsoon. Here, we reconcile it against the original chronicle and use it to document, and attribute, a severe sustained rainy-season drought from 1881 to 1907: rainy-season (June&amp;ndash;August, JJA) precipitation fell ~27 % and annual totals 28 % (with a Pettitt change point in 1880, &lt;em&gt;p&lt;/em&gt; &amp;asymp; 0.01), with the contribution of days &amp;gt;100 mm falling by ~43 %. Three distinct record channels &amp;ndash; the gauge, a separate documentary reconstruction, and qualitative rain reports in the Seungjeongwon Ilgi &amp;ndash; registered the same shift, arguing against any decay in observational practice. In the Twentieth Century Reanalysis, the unconstrained precipitation field did not resolve the drought, whereas its pressure-constrained circulation registered a weakened monsoon low. Pacemaker experiments (10 members each) were conducted to identify the oceanic driver, prescribing the observed sea-surface-temperature anomalies over the tropical Pacific, North Atlantic, and Indian Ocean individually and globally. The historical forcing produced a significant weakening of the low-level monsoon circulation over Korea: a nearly 8 m depression of the JJA 850 hPa geopotential height (&lt;em&gt;p&lt;/em&gt; &amp;lt; 0.001, the most robust signal), weakened southerly inflow, and significant reduction in the vertically integrated moisture supply. The geopotential-height weakening was driven principally by the Indian Ocean, the largest single-basin contributor, together with the North Atlantic, and not by the tropical Pacific despite its El Ni&amp;ntilde;o-like state. The reconciled record supplies a pre-industrial monsoon baseline and, with the experiments, attributes the monsoon-circulation weakening that accompanied the historical Korean drought to Indian Ocean and North Atlantic cooling. Future work should disentangle the tropical-cyclone contribution to the heavy-rainfall deficit and confirm the attribution with additional models.</p>
</abstract>
<counts><page-count count="13"/></counts>
<funding-group>
<award-group id="gs1">
<funding-source>National Research Foundation of Korea</funding-source>
<award-id>RS-2024-00443714</award-id>
</award-group>
</funding-group>
</article-meta>
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