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<front>
<journal-meta>
<journal-id journal-id-type="publisher">EGUsphere</journal-id>
<journal-title-group>
<journal-title>EGUsphere</journal-title>
<abbrev-journal-title abbrev-type="publisher">EGUsphere</abbrev-journal-title>
<abbrev-journal-title abbrev-type="nlm-ta">EGUsphere</abbrev-journal-title>
</journal-title-group>
<issn pub-type="epub"></issn>
<publisher><publisher-name>Copernicus Publications</publisher-name>
<publisher-loc>Göttingen, Germany</publisher-loc>
</publisher>
</journal-meta>
<article-meta>
<article-id pub-id-type="doi">10.5194/egusphere-2026-4809</article-id>
<title-group>
<article-title>Quantifying and Predicting the Mesosphere and Lower Thermosphere Density during Austral Summer</article-title>
</title-group>
<contrib-group><contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Zhang</surname>
<given-names>Liang</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1">
<sup>1</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Liu</surname>
<given-names>Zhongfang</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1">
<sup>1</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Zhu</surname>
<given-names>Yajun</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8884-0885</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff2">
<sup>2</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
</contrib-group><aff id="aff1">
<label>1</label>
<addr-line>State Key Laboratory of Marine Geology, Tongji University, Shanghai, 200092, China</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff2">
<label>2</label>
<addr-line>State Key Laboratory of Solar Activity and Space Weather, National Space Science Center, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, 100190, China</addr-line>
</aff>
<pub-date pub-type="epub">
<day>20</day>
<month>08</month>
<year>2026</year>
</pub-date>
<volume>2026</volume>
<fpage>1</fpage>
<lpage>28</lpage>
<permissions>
<copyright-statement>Copyright: &#x000a9; 2026 Liang Zhang et al.</copyright-statement>
<copyright-year>2026</copyright-year>
<license license-type="open-access">
<license-p>This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License. To view a copy of this licence, visit <ext-link ext-link-type="uri"  xlink:href="https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/</ext-link></license-p>
</license>
</permissions>
<self-uri xlink:href="https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2026/egusphere-2026-4809/">This article is available from https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2026/egusphere-2026-4809/</self-uri>
<self-uri xlink:href="https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2026/egusphere-2026-4809/egusphere-2026-4809.pdf">The full text article is available as a PDF file from https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2026/egusphere-2026-4809/egusphere-2026-4809.pdf</self-uri>
<abstract>
<p>The mesosphere and lower thermosphere (MLT, 60&amp;ndash;110 km) are a critical atmosphere-space transition layer, yet its density variability remains poorly quantified. Using 24 years (2002&amp;ndash;2025) of the Sounding of the Atmosphere using Broadband Emission Radiometry (SABER) temperature measurements, we demonstrate that the T80 index&amp;mdash;a temperature-based proxy at 80 km for the strength of austral summer polar upwelling&amp;mdash;dominates MLT density fluctuations. A distinct vertical density dipole emerges over southern high latitudes: stronger upwelling (lower T80) increases density below 77 km via adiabatic cooling, yet substantially reduces density from 83 to 105 km. This dipole peaks near 95 km with a correlation of R = 0.98 and a sensitivity of 3.1 % K&lt;sup&gt;-1&lt;/sup&gt;, jointly shaped by the column adjustment effect and the local thermal effect. Mirroring this high-latitude response, a weaker, negative correlation (peak R = -0.8, -0.5 % K&lt;sup&gt;-1&lt;/sup&gt;) appears over low latitudes (55&amp;deg; S&amp;ndash;35&amp;deg; N, 80&amp;ndash;90 km), establishing an interhemispherically anti-phase density pattern driven by the same upwelling. The T80-density relationship remains robust on daily timescales, with a mean correlation of 0.78 (1.7 % K&lt;sup&gt;-1&lt;/sup&gt;) at 80&amp;deg; S, 95 km. Owing to the strong month-to-month persistence of polar upwelling, the T80 index enables one-month-ahead MLT density predictions with a peak correlation of 0.90. Our results indicate that internal dynamical forcing from summer polar upwelling dominates interannual MLT density variability, while signals from the 11-year solar cycle and long-term CO&lt;sub&gt;2&lt;/sub&gt; cooling cannot be reliably isolated from the 24-year observations.</p>
</abstract>
<counts><page-count count="28"/></counts>
<funding-group>
<award-group id="gs1">
<funding-source>National Natural Science Foundation of China</funding-source>
<award-id>42025602</award-id>
<award-id>41905059</award-id>
</award-group>
</funding-group>
</article-meta>
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