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<front>
<journal-meta>
<journal-id journal-id-type="publisher">EGUsphere</journal-id>
<journal-title-group>
<journal-title>EGUsphere</journal-title>
<abbrev-journal-title abbrev-type="publisher">EGUsphere</abbrev-journal-title>
<abbrev-journal-title abbrev-type="nlm-ta">EGUsphere</abbrev-journal-title>
</journal-title-group>
<publisher><publisher-name>Copernicus Publications</publisher-name>
<publisher-loc>Göttingen, Germany</publisher-loc>
</publisher>
</journal-meta>
<article-meta>
<article-id pub-id-type="doi">10.5194/egusphere-2026-4741</article-id>
<title-group>
<article-title>Bounded Transport-Residual Closure for Solver-Coupled Graph-Based Global Atmospheric Forecasting</article-title>
</title-group>
<contrib-group><contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Deng</surname>
<given-names>Chuanhu</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1">
<sup>1</sup>
</xref>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff2">
<sup>2</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Li</surname>
<given-names>Chaorong</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1">
<sup>1</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Luo</surname>
<given-names>Wenjie</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1">
<sup>1</sup>
</xref>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff2">
<sup>2</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Wang</surname>
<given-names>Zhuo</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1">
<sup>1</sup>
</xref>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff2">
<sup>2</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Zhu</surname>
<given-names>Lihong</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1">
<sup>1</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
</contrib-group><aff id="aff1">
<label>1</label>
<addr-line>School of Computer Science and Technology (School of Artificial Intelligence), Yibin University, Yibin 644000, China</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff2">
<label>2</label>
<addr-line>College of Computer Science and Engineering, Chongqing University of Technology, Chongqing 400054, China</addr-line>
</aff>
<pub-date pub-type="epub">
<day>12</day>
<month>10</month>
<year>2026</year>
</pub-date>
<volume>2026</volume>
<fpage>1</fpage>
<lpage>27</lpage>
<permissions>
<copyright-statement>Copyright: &#x000a9; 2026 Chuanhu Deng et al.</copyright-statement>
<copyright-year>2026</copyright-year>
<license license-type="open-access">
<license-p>This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License. To view a copy of this licence, visit <ext-link ext-link-type="uri"  xlink:href="https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/</ext-link></license-p>
</license>
</permissions>
<self-uri xlink:href="https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2026/egusphere-2026-4741/">This article is available from https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2026/egusphere-2026-4741/</self-uri>
<self-uri xlink:href="https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2026/egusphere-2026-4741/egusphere-2026-4741.pdf">The full text article is available as a PDF file from https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2026/egusphere-2026-4741/egusphere-2026-4741.pdf</self-uri>
<abstract>
<p>Solver-coupled learning offers a structured alternative to direct state-to-state regression for global atmospheric forecasting, but its forecast quality depends on how accurately the embedded coefficient dynamics represent unresolved forcing and coarse-grid numerical effects. We represent these unresolved effects using a bounded transport-residual closure (BTRC) embedded in an explicit sub-stepping solver. Building on the reduced horizontal transport-coefficient dynamics of PASSAT, we separate a retained spherical advection&amp;ndash;curvature operator from aggregate terms omitted, approximated, or numerically distorted by the reduced model, including pressure-gradient, Coriolis, frictional, subgrid, vertical-coupling, and discretization contributions. A graph network estimates a raw aggregate equation discrepancy, which is mapped through a scaled hyperbolic tangent to obtain the BTRC. The resulting closure is inserted into the coefficient-update pathway and modifies the transport coefficients used by subsequent atmospheric state updates. The bound limits the direct closure-induced coefficient increment per Euler sub-step to &lt;em&gt;&amp;delta;t&amp;tau;&lt;/em&gt;, providing a numerical safeguard against unconstrained learned forcing; it is not presented as a proof of global dynamical stability. The BTRC is shared across prognostic channels as a compact directional correction, while an auxiliary node-level gated wavelet branch refines multi-resolution graph features. Experiments on coarse-resolution ERA5 data under WeatherBench-style protocols show the clearest gains for temperature and 500-hPa geopotential (Z500). Near-surface wind fields exhibit more consistent improvements in ACC than in RMSE, and the latter gains are small or not uniformly positive. A residual-free control, &lt;span style=&quot;position: relative;&quot;&gt;&lt;em&gt;R&lt;sub&gt;t&lt;/sub&gt;&lt;/em&gt; &amp;equiv; 0&lt;sup class=&quot;up&quot; style=&quot;position: absolute; top: 0px; left: 2px;&quot;&gt;~&lt;/sup&gt;&lt;/span&gt;, provides targeted evidence that the learned in-solver BTRC materially contributes to the long-lead improvements within the evaluated setting. These results support bounded transport-residual learning as a promising mechanism for improving autoregressive behavior in reduced solver-coupled atmospheric models.</p>
</abstract>
<counts><page-count count="27"/></counts>
<funding-group>
<award-group id="gs1">
<funding-source>Yibin Science and Technology Planning Program</funding-source>
<award-id>2025JC008</award-id>
</award-group>
<award-group id="gs2">
<funding-source>Science and Technology Department of Sichuan Province</funding-source>
<award-id>2024ZYD0089</award-id>
</award-group>
<award-group id="gs3">
<funding-source>Yibin University</funding-source>
<award-id>2024XJYY03</award-id>
<award-id>2025XJZD01</award-id>
</award-group>
</funding-group>
</article-meta>
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