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<front>
<journal-meta>
<journal-id journal-id-type="publisher">EGUsphere</journal-id>
<journal-title-group>
<journal-title>EGUsphere</journal-title>
<abbrev-journal-title abbrev-type="publisher">EGUsphere</abbrev-journal-title>
<abbrev-journal-title abbrev-type="nlm-ta">EGUsphere</abbrev-journal-title>
</journal-title-group>
<issn pub-type="epub"></issn>
<publisher><publisher-name>Copernicus Publications</publisher-name>
<publisher-loc>Göttingen, Germany</publisher-loc>
</publisher>
</journal-meta>
<article-meta>
<article-id pub-id-type="doi">10.5194/egusphere-2026-4734</article-id>
<title-group>
<article-title>Forecasting the 12 November 2019 Venice &lt;em&gt;Acqua Alta&lt;/em&gt; event: the role of baroclinic compounding effects</article-title>
</title-group>
<contrib-group><contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Goglio</surname>
<given-names>Anna Chiara</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9024-7394</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1">
<sup>1</sup>
</xref>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff2">
<sup>2</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Clementi</surname>
<given-names>Emanuela</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1">
<sup>1</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Pinardi</surname>
<given-names>Nadia</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4765-0775</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff2">
<sup>2</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Boccaletti</surname>
<given-names>Giulio</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1">
<sup>1</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Oddo</surname>
<given-names>Paolo</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4451-3898</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff2">
<sup>2</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Mentaschi</surname>
<given-names>Lorenzo</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff2">
<sup>2</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
</contrib-group><aff id="aff1">
<label>1</label>
<addr-line>CMCC Foundation - Euro-Mediterranean Center on Climate Change, Bologna, Italy</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff2">
<label>2</label>
<addr-line>Alma Mater Studiorum - University of Bologna, Bologna, Italy</addr-line>
</aff>
<pub-date pub-type="epub">
<day>21</day>
<month>08</month>
<year>2026</year>
</pub-date>
<volume>2026</volume>
<fpage>1</fpage>
<lpage>24</lpage>
<permissions>
<copyright-statement>Copyright: &#x000a9; 2026 Anna Chiara Goglio et al.</copyright-statement>
<copyright-year>2026</copyright-year>
<license license-type="open-access">
<license-p>This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License. To view a copy of this licence, visit <ext-link ext-link-type="uri"  xlink:href="https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/</ext-link></license-p>
</license>
</permissions>
<self-uri xlink:href="https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2026/egusphere-2026-4734/">This article is available from https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2026/egusphere-2026-4734/</self-uri>
<self-uri xlink:href="https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2026/egusphere-2026-4734/egusphere-2026-4734.pdf">The full text article is available as a PDF file from https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2026/egusphere-2026-4734/egusphere-2026-4734.pdf</self-uri>
<abstract>
<p>The northern Adriatic Sea is known to be threatened by extreme sea level events. Venice is exposed to these events, locally known as &lt;em&gt;Acqua Alta&lt;/em&gt;, which cause the flooding of the historical city centre. Despite its relevance, a comprehensive analysis of extreme &lt;em&gt;Acqua Alta&lt;/em&gt; events that considers all possible compounding drivers, including baroclinic contributions, is, to our knowledge, still missing. In this work, numerical results based on the &lt;em&gt;Copernicus Marine Mediterranean Analysis and Forecasting System&lt;/em&gt; are analyzed to better understand the physical mechanisms underlying the 12 November 2019 &lt;em&gt;Acqua Alta&lt;/em&gt; event and to assess individual processes playing a role in the event dynamics.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;The novel finding of this study is the identification of the contribution of baroclinic dynamics. We estimate a net baroclinic contribution of 7 cm (4 %) to the 175 cm sea level peak. We show for the first time that internal seiches along the northern Adriatic slope contribute to the dynamics of the &lt;em&gt;Acqua Alta&lt;/em&gt; event. Moreover, we identify a northern Adriatic density front and quantify its contribution to the time-mean positive northward sea level slope.</p>
</abstract>
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