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<front>
<journal-meta>
<journal-id journal-id-type="publisher">EGUsphere</journal-id>
<journal-title-group>
<journal-title>EGUsphere</journal-title>
<abbrev-journal-title abbrev-type="publisher">EGUsphere</abbrev-journal-title>
<abbrev-journal-title abbrev-type="nlm-ta">EGUsphere</abbrev-journal-title>
</journal-title-group>
<issn pub-type="epub"></issn>
<publisher><publisher-name>Copernicus Publications</publisher-name>
<publisher-loc>Göttingen, Germany</publisher-loc>
</publisher>
</journal-meta>
<article-meta>
<article-id pub-id-type="doi">10.5194/egusphere-2026-4724</article-id>
<title-group>
<article-title>Accelerating greenhouse gas retrievals with neural network-based forward models</article-title>
</title-group>
<contrib-group><contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Lippert</surname>
<given-names>Fiona</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4174-2230</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1">
<sup>1</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Barr</surname>
<given-names>Andrew Gerald</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4909-2770</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1">
<sup>1</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Herreras-Giralda</surname>
<given-names>Marcos</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff2">
<sup>2</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Momoi</surname>
<given-names>Masahiro</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2551-7834</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff2">
<sup>2</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Rejano</surname>
<given-names>Fernando</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1855-1313</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff2">
<sup>2</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Lu</surname>
<given-names>Sha</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5434-893X</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1">
<sup>1</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Hasekamp</surname>
<given-names>Otto</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1494-2539</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1">
<sup>1</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Dubovik</surname>
<given-names>Oleg</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3482-6460</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff3">
<sup>3</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Malina</surname>
<given-names>Edward</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1055-4598</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff4">
<sup>4</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Landgraf</surname>
<given-names>Jochen</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6069-0598</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1">
<sup>1</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
</contrib-group><aff id="aff1">
<label>1</label>
<addr-line>Space Research Organisation Netherlands (SRON), Leiden, Netherlands</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff2">
<label>2</label>
<addr-line>GRASP SAS, Lille, France</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff3">
<label>3</label>
<addr-line>Univ. Lille, CNRS, UMR 8518 - LOA - Laboratoire d’Optique Atmosphérique, Lille, France</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff4">
<label>4</label>
<addr-line>ESA/ESRIN, Frascati, Italy</addr-line>
</aff>
<pub-date pub-type="epub">
<day>12</day>
<month>08</month>
<year>2026</year>
</pub-date>
<volume>2026</volume>
<fpage>1</fpage>
<lpage>32</lpage>
<permissions>
<copyright-statement>Copyright: &#x000a9; 2026 Fiona Lippert et al.</copyright-statement>
<copyright-year>2026</copyright-year>
<license license-type="open-access">
<license-p>This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License. To view a copy of this licence, visit <ext-link ext-link-type="uri"  xlink:href="https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/</ext-link></license-p>
</license>
</permissions>
<self-uri xlink:href="https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2026/egusphere-2026-4724/">This article is available from https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2026/egusphere-2026-4724/</self-uri>
<self-uri xlink:href="https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2026/egusphere-2026-4724/egusphere-2026-4724.pdf">The full text article is available as a PDF file from https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2026/egusphere-2026-4724/egusphere-2026-4724.pdf</self-uri>
<abstract>
<p>Greenhouse gas (GHG) retrievals rely on repeated evaluations of computationally expensive physics-based forward models, which limit the feasibility of near-real-time retrievals and timely detection of emission hotspots. A promising alternative is to replace these forward models with fast machine learning emulators trained to approximate their input-output mapping, while retaining the overall retrieval algorithm.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Here, we assess the feasibility of this approach in the context of the Sentinel-5 mission, systematically comparing two different emulation strategies: an end-to-end approach, which directly approximates the full forward model with neural networks, and a hybrid approach, which combines fast non-scattering simulations with a neural network-based correction for atmospheric scattering effects. We comprehensively validate each emulator in the full retrieval chain, evaluating their impact on the accuracy of retrieved XCO&lt;sub&gt;2&lt;/sub&gt; and XCH&lt;sub&gt;4&lt;/sub&gt;.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Our results show that a hybrid approach is needed to meet the stringent accuracy requirements on XCH&lt;sub&gt;4&lt;/sub&gt; and XCO&lt;sub&gt;2&lt;/sub&gt;. While the end-to-end emulator achieves large speed-ups exceeding a factor of 300, it introduces considerable errors of 7.22 ppb for XCH&lt;sub&gt;4&lt;/sub&gt; and 4.25 ppm for XCO&lt;sub&gt;2&lt;/sub&gt; compared to full-physics retrievals, and fails to generalize to high-emission scenarios beyond the training range. In contrast, the hybrid approach can effectively leverage the information provided by the non-scattering approximation, reducing emulator-induced retrieval errors to less than 1.5 ppb for XCH&lt;sub&gt;4&lt;/sub&gt; and 0.5 ppm for XCO&lt;sub&gt;2&lt;/sub&gt;, while still being an order of magnitude faster than full-physics retrievals and maintaining robust performance for high-emission scenarios.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Together, these results pave the way for operational deployment of neural network-based forward models in GHG retrievals from Sentinel-5, and more broadly demonstrate the potential of hybrid machine learning emulators to facilitate timely and accurate processing of the rapidly growing data volumes from modern satellite missions.</p>
</abstract>
<counts><page-count count="32"/></counts>
<funding-group>
<award-group id="gs1">
<funding-source>European Space Agency</funding-source>
<award-id>4000143572/24/I-KE</award-id>
</award-group>
</funding-group>
</article-meta>
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