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<front>
<journal-meta>
<journal-id journal-id-type="publisher">EGUsphere</journal-id>
<journal-title-group>
<journal-title>EGUsphere</journal-title>
<abbrev-journal-title abbrev-type="publisher">EGUsphere</abbrev-journal-title>
<abbrev-journal-title abbrev-type="nlm-ta">EGUsphere</abbrev-journal-title>
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<publisher><publisher-name>Copernicus Publications</publisher-name>
<publisher-loc>Göttingen, Germany</publisher-loc>
</publisher>
</journal-meta>
<article-meta>
<article-id pub-id-type="doi">10.5194/egusphere-2026-4690</article-id>
<title-group>
<article-title>How well do climate models estimate the historical surface mass balance of the Antarctic ice sheet?</article-title>
</title-group>
<contrib-group><contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Cherblanc</surname>
<given-names>Clément</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1">
<sup>1</sup>
</xref>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff2">
<sup>2</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Amory</surname>
<given-names>Charles</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5906-4303</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff3">
<sup>3</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Boberg</surname>
<given-names>Fredrik</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2589-8422</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1">
<sup>1</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Gossart</surname>
<given-names>Alexandra</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1927-2685</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff4">
<sup>4</sup>
</xref>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff5">
<sup>5</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Hansen</surname>
<given-names>Nicolaj</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0002-4448-8891</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1">
<sup>1</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Hofsteenge</surname>
<given-names>Marte Gé</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5369-5318</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff6">
<sup>6</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Hvidberg</surname>
<given-names>Christine Schøtt</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9665-1339</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff2">
<sup>2</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Marchi</surname>
<given-names>Sylvain</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff7">
<sup>7</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Niwano</surname>
<given-names>Masashi</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3121-3802</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff8">
<sup>8</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Sauerland</surname>
<given-names>Florian</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8382-343X</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff9">
<sup>9</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Souverijns</surname>
<given-names>Niels</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4695-9754</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff5">
<sup>5</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Torres-Alavez</surname>
<given-names>José Abraham</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1">
<sup>1</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Vandecrux</surname>
<given-names>Baptiste</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0002-4169-8973</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff10">
<sup>10</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>van Dalum</surname>
<given-names>Christiaan</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0009-0008-6944-364X</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff6">
<sup>6</sup>
</xref>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff11">
<sup>11</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>van de Berg</surname>
<given-names>Willem Jan</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8232-2040</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff6">
<sup>6</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>van Lipzig</surname>
<given-names>Nicole</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2899-4046</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff9">
<sup>9</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>van Tiggelen</surname>
<given-names>Maurice</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7898-3359</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff6">
<sup>6</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Verro</surname>
<given-names>Kristiina</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3312-3085</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1">
<sup>1</sup>
</xref>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff6">
<sup>6</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Mottram</surname>
<given-names>Ruth</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1016-1997</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1">
<sup>1</sup>
</xref>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff12">
<sup>12</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
</contrib-group><aff id="aff1">
<label>1</label>
<addr-line>Danish Meteorological Institute, Sankt Kjelds Plads 11, Copenhagen, Denmark</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff2">
<label>2</label>
<addr-line>Physics of Ice, Climate and Earth, Niels Bohr Institute, University of Copenhagen, Jagtvej 128 , Copenhagen, Denmark</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff3">
<label>3</label>
<addr-line>Institut des Géosciences de l’Environnement (IGE), Univ. Grenoble Alpes/CNRS/IRD/G-INP, Grenoble, France</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff4">
<label>4</label>
<addr-line>Te Puna Pātiotio | Antarctic Research Centre, Te Herenga Waka | Victoria University of Wellington, Te Whanganui-a-Tara | Wellington, Aotearoa | New Zealand</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff5">
<label>5</label>
<addr-line>Environmental Intelligence, Flemish Institute for Technological Research (VITO), Mol, Belgium</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff6">
<label>6</label>
<addr-line>Institute for Marine and Atmospheric Research (IMAU), Utrecht University, Utrecht, the Netherlands</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff7">
<label>7</label>
<addr-line>Royal Meteorological Institute of Belgium, Climate Modeling and Impact studies, Brussels, Belgium</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff8">
<label>8</label>
<addr-line>Meteorological Research Institute, Japan Meteorological Agency, Tsukuba, Japan</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff9">
<label>9</label>
<addr-line>Department of Earth and Environmental Sciences, KU Leuven, Leuven, Belgium</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff10">
<label>10</label>
<addr-line>Geological Survey of Denmark and Greenland, Øster Voldgade 10, 1350 Copenhagen, Denmark</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff11">
<label>11</label>
<addr-line>Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute, De Bilt, Netherlands</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff12">
<label>12</label>
<addr-line>Department of Environmental Science, iClimate, Aarhus University, Roskilde, Denmark</addr-line>
</aff>
<pub-date pub-type="epub">
<day>14</day>
<month>10</month>
<year>2026</year>
</pub-date>
<volume>2026</volume>
<fpage>1</fpage>
<lpage>53</lpage>
<permissions>
<copyright-statement>Copyright: &#x000a9; 2026 Clément Cherblanc et al.</copyright-statement>
<copyright-year>2026</copyright-year>
<license license-type="open-access">
<license-p>This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License. To view a copy of this licence, visit <ext-link ext-link-type="uri"  xlink:href="https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/</ext-link></license-p>
</license>
</permissions>
<self-uri xlink:href="https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2026/egusphere-2026-4690/">This article is available from https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2026/egusphere-2026-4690/</self-uri>
<self-uri xlink:href="https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2026/egusphere-2026-4690/egusphere-2026-4690.pdf">The full text article is available as a PDF file from https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2026/egusphere-2026-4690/egusphere-2026-4690.pdf</self-uri>
<abstract>
<p>Earth System Model (ESM)-derived Surface Mass Balance (SMB) serves as input for ice sheet models and to make estimates of sea level rise. However, there are few previous studies examining the biases in ESMs when modelling SMB under the historical (1985&amp;ndash;2014) period, which may elucidate biases in future projections. Regional Climate Models (RCMs) are often used as a computationally expensive step in improving modelled SMB at the present day and for future projections. It is also unclear whether they add value to SMB estimates on the Antarctic Ice Sheet (AIS), where the topography of the Plateau is relatively smooth. We evaluate SMB from 4 ESMs, 13 ESM-driven RCM simulations, 3 reanalyses and 13 reanalysis-driven RCM simulations, with 76003 AIS SMB observations compiled in the SUMup dataset. We find that ESMs can have consistent Antarctic-wide biases that are related to their temperature biases, and regional biases specific to each ESM. Downscaling with RCMs greatly improves the modelling of SMB relative to ESMs: they systematically increase the correlation coefficient (R; from 0.71 for ESMs to 0.86 for ESM-driven RCMs) and Perkins Skill Score (PSS; from 0.38 to 0.67), and reduce the Root-Mean-Squared Error (RMSE; from 17.90 cm to 15.60 cm). However, RCM downscaling does not systematically outperform reanalyses according to the same metrics (R from 0.88 to 0.90; PSS from 0.58 to 0.69; and RMSE from 11.45 cm to 11.22 cm). When downscaling, RCMs carry strong biases from their driving models, and performance improvement often stems from regional rather than continent-wide improvements. An important caution in interpreting our results is that observations are unevenly distributed in both time and space, hindering a truly unbiased ice sheet-wide assessment of SMB. However, we find that the density of observations is sufficient to identify the biases between models and observations in Dronning Maud Land and West Antarctica, but there are insufficient measurements in the rest of East Antarctica and the Peninsula, where high added value of RCMs is expected, suggesting that these regions should be a target for future observational campaigns.</p>
</abstract>
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<funding-source>European Space Agency</funding-source>
<award-id>CCI+ phase 2545 Climate Modelling User Group (CCI+ CMUG)</award-id>
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<funding-source>Novo Nordisk Fonden</funding-source>
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<funding-source>Japan Society for the Promotion of Science</funding-source>
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<award-id>JP24K02909</award-id>
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<funding-source>Fonds De La Recherche Scientifique - FNRS</funding-source>
<award-id>O0100718F (EOS ID 30454083)</award-id>
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<funding-source>Belgian Federal Science Policy Office</funding-source>
<award-id>RT/23/PASPARTOUT (PASPARTOUT - Pathways of particles, VOCs and moisture into East-Antarctica in a changing climate) as part of its IMPULS programme.</award-id>
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<funding-source>Université Catholique de Louvain</funding-source>
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</front>
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