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<front>
<journal-meta>
<journal-id journal-id-type="publisher">EGUsphere</journal-id>
<journal-title-group>
<journal-title>EGUsphere</journal-title>
<abbrev-journal-title abbrev-type="publisher">EGUsphere</abbrev-journal-title>
<abbrev-journal-title abbrev-type="nlm-ta">EGUsphere</abbrev-journal-title>
</journal-title-group>
<publisher><publisher-name>Copernicus Publications</publisher-name>
<publisher-loc>Göttingen, Germany</publisher-loc>
</publisher>
</journal-meta>
<article-meta>
<article-id pub-id-type="doi">10.5194/egusphere-2026-4670</article-id>
<title-group>
<article-title>West African Reservoirs Exhibit Variable Sensitivity to Large-Scale Climate Patterns</article-title>
</title-group>
<contrib-group><contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Kouassi</surname>
<given-names>Valery Bessely Stanislas</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1">
<sup>1</sup>
</xref>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff2">
<sup>2</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Chun</surname>
<given-names>Kwok Pan</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9873-6240</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff3">
<sup>3</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Yao</surname>
<given-names>Blé Anouma Fhorest</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff4">
<sup>4</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Agbenorhevi</surname>
<given-names>Albert Elikplim</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3140-6439</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1">
<sup>1</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Soro</surname>
<given-names>Gneneyougo Emile</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff4">
<sup>4</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Goula</surname>
<given-names>Albert Bi Tié</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff4">
<sup>4</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Kelome-Ahouangnivo</surname>
<given-names>Nelly Carine</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff5">
<sup>5</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Klaus‬‬‬‬‬‬‬‬</surname>
<given-names>Julian</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6301-1634</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff2">
<sup>2</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
</contrib-group><aff id="aff1">
<label>1</label>
<addr-line>Graduate Research Programme on Climate Change and Water Resources (GRP CCWR), West African Science Service Centre on Climate Change and Adapted Land, Use (WASCAL), Institut National de l’Eau, Université d’Abomey-Calavi, Abomey-Calavi, Bénin</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff2">
<label>2</label>
<addr-line>Department of Geography, University of Bonn, Bonn, Germany</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff3">
<label>3</label>
<addr-line>School of Architecture and Environment, University of the West of England, Bristol, UK</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff4">
<label>4</label>
<addr-line>Unité de Formation et de Recherche Sciences et Gestion de l’Environnement (UFR SGE), Université Nangui Abrogoua, Abidjan, Côte d’Ivoire</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff5">
<label>5</label>
<addr-line>Département des Sciences de la Terre, Université d’Abomey-Calavi, Abomey-Calavi, Benin</addr-line>
</aff>
<pub-date pub-type="epub">
<day>06</day>
<month>10</month>
<year>2026</year>
</pub-date>
<volume>2026</volume>
<fpage>1</fpage>
<lpage>40</lpage>
<permissions>
<copyright-statement>Copyright: &#x000a9; 2026 Valery Bessely Stanislas Kouassi et al.</copyright-statement>
<copyright-year>2026</copyright-year>
<license license-type="open-access">
<license-p>This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License. To view a copy of this licence, visit <ext-link ext-link-type="uri"  xlink:href="https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/</ext-link></license-p>
</license>
</permissions>
<self-uri xlink:href="https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2026/egusphere-2026-4670/">This article is available from https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2026/egusphere-2026-4670/</self-uri>
<self-uri xlink:href="https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2026/egusphere-2026-4670/egusphere-2026-4670.pdf">The full text article is available as a PDF file from https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2026/egusphere-2026-4670/egusphere-2026-4670.pdf</self-uri>
<abstract>
<p>Limited understanding of current trends in reservoir surface extent in West Africa and how large-scale climate patterns influence these dynamics challenges efforts to anticipate stress on water resources. To address this gap, we assessed reservoir sensitivity to large scale climate patterns across West Africa. We linked reservoir surface extent dynamics from 1985 to 2022 for 412 reservoirs with ten large-scale climate patterns represented by ten Sea Surface Temperature Anomaly (SSTA) indices, using supervised machine learning approaches and further analyzed the regional clustering in reservoirs responses. Most West African reservoirs, with significant trend, exhibit declining surface extent from 1985 to 2022 and respond primarily to combined Indo-Mediterranean-Atlantic climate signals rather than to single SSTA indices. Western Mediterranean Index (WMED) emerged as the dominant driver and is generally positively associated with reservoir surface extent, while the Eastern Mediterranean Index (EMED) showed contrasting effects. Secondary contributions were observed from Atlantic modes, particularly the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) and the Atlantic Meridional Mode (AMM). Regression coefficients of SSTA indices vary widely across reservoirs, with limited significant spatial clustering, indicating variable sensitivity of reservoirs to large-scale climate patterns potentially shaped by local factors. This spatial heterogeneity further stressed the need to investigate its implication for adaptation strategies, as well as the effects of local management practices and unique reservoir configuration on reservoir sensitivity to large scale climate patterns.</p>
</abstract>
<counts><page-count count="40"/></counts>
<funding-group>
<award-group id="gs1">
<funding-source>Rheinische Friedrich-Wilhelms-Universität Bonn</funding-source>
<award-id>Aargelander scholarships for doctoral candidates from developing countries, 2025</award-id>
</award-group>
<award-group id="gs2">
<funding-source>West African Science Service Centre on Climate Change and Adapted Land Use</funding-source>
<award-id>Doctoral Scholarship, 2021-2022</award-id>
</award-group>
</funding-group>
</article-meta>
</front>
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