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<front>
<journal-meta>
<journal-id journal-id-type="publisher">EGUsphere</journal-id>
<journal-title-group>
<journal-title>EGUsphere</journal-title>
<abbrev-journal-title abbrev-type="publisher">EGUsphere</abbrev-journal-title>
<abbrev-journal-title abbrev-type="nlm-ta">EGUsphere</abbrev-journal-title>
</journal-title-group>
<issn pub-type="epub"></issn>
<publisher><publisher-name>Copernicus Publications</publisher-name>
<publisher-loc>Göttingen, Germany</publisher-loc>
</publisher>
</journal-meta>
<article-meta>
<article-id pub-id-type="doi">10.5194/egusphere-2026-4624</article-id>
<title-group>
<article-title>Terminal-Guided Back-and-Forth Nudging: Time-Reversed Smoke-Plume Reconstruction with Fourier Neural-Operator Acceleration</article-title>
</title-group>
<contrib-group><contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Glisovic</surname>
<given-names>Petar</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5636-7731</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1">
<sup>1</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Braun</surname>
<given-names>Alexander</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1">
<sup>1</sup>
</xref>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff2">
<sup>2</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Forte</surname>
<given-names>Alessandro</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff3">
<sup>3</sup>
</xref>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff4">
<sup>4</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
</contrib-group><aff id="aff1">
<label>1</label>
<addr-line>Department of Geological Sciences and Geological Engineering, Queen’s University, Kingston, Ontario, Canada</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff2">
<label>2</label>
<addr-line>Department of Physics, Engineering Physics and Astronomy, Queen’s University, Kingston, Ontario, Canada</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff3">
<label>3</label>
<addr-line>University of Florida, Gainesville, FL, USA</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff4">
<label>4</label>
<addr-line>Institut de Physique du Globe de Paris, France</addr-line>
</aff>
<pub-date pub-type="epub">
<day>08</day>
<month>09</month>
<year>2026</year>
</pub-date>
<volume>2026</volume>
<fpage>1</fpage>
<lpage>42</lpage>
<permissions>
<copyright-statement>Copyright: &#x000a9; 2026 Petar Glisovic et al.</copyright-statement>
<copyright-year>2026</copyright-year>
<license license-type="open-access">
<license-p>This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License. To view a copy of this licence, visit <ext-link ext-link-type="uri"  xlink:href="https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/</ext-link></license-p>
</license>
</permissions>
<self-uri xlink:href="https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2026/egusphere-2026-4624/">This article is available from https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2026/egusphere-2026-4624/</self-uri>
<self-uri xlink:href="https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2026/egusphere-2026-4624/egusphere-2026-4624.pdf">The full text article is available as a PDF file from https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2026/egusphere-2026-4624/egusphere-2026-4624.pdf</self-uri>
<abstract>
<p>Reconstructing an earlier smoke plume from a later observation is an ill-posed inverse problem. Diffusion is not reversible, so backward integration amplifies small-scale perturbations rather than recovering structures already erased from the terminal field. Quasi-reversibility (QRV) provides a stabilized backward baseline for the source-forced advection&amp;ndash;diffusion&amp;ndash;removal equation, but it does not ensure that a reconstructed earlier plume remains dynamically consistent with the observed terminal plume when replayed forward. We introduce terminal-guided back-and-forth nudging (TBFN) to reconstruct the plume state when the source history is known or estimated independently. In each short backward window, a QRV-reconstructed candidate is replayed forward to the terminal time, and the resulting mismatch is transported back through the homogeneous QRV dynamics to correct the window&amp;rsquo;s starting condition, iterated until the correction stabilizes. The selected reconstruction is then passed backward to the next window, and the procedure continues across the full interval. Across noise-free identical-twin experiments comprising a reference plume, a transport-dominated high-P&amp;eacute;clet stress test, and a close multi-source plume, TBFN reduces QRV hidden-state (withheld forward truth) errors by approximately one to two orders of magnitude in these controlled configurations. The improvement is concentrated in coherent low-to-intermediate spectral content and does not circumvent the diffusive loss of unsupported short wavelengths. A source-free ablation shows that terminal consistency under an incorrect forcing model can coexist with a severely inaccurate reconstructed history. When the emission history is not independently known, its parameters must therefore be estimated rather than omitted or prescribed without justification. In a separate experiment with fixed transport physics, we train a conditioned Fourier neural operator (Source-FNO) to infer location, ignition time, and strength from a densely sampled plume-evolution history. Across 1,200 held-out test events, Source-FNO recovers these parameters very accurately. However, when the estimated parameters are used to drive the TBFN reconstruction instead of the reference ones, the resulting hidden-state errors are larger near ignition. We also train a chain of window-local FNOs to approximate the physics-based TBFN reconstruction maps and compose them backward in time. Across 150 held-out events under the same fixed transport physics, the learned chain attains mean hidden-state endpoint errors of 8.83 % with the configured event parameters and 9.95 % with Source-FNO estimates. The TBFN teacher generated with the configured parameters has a corresponding error of 9.54 %. Once trained, the chain provides a roughly 10&lt;sup&gt;5&lt;/sup&gt;-fold inference speedup. This combination points toward reconstructing the earliest post-ignition plume state, the hardest part of after-the-fact fire-behavior analysis, fast enough for routine use once the neural operators are trained.</p>
</abstract>
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