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<front>
<journal-meta>
<journal-id journal-id-type="publisher">EGUsphere</journal-id>
<journal-title-group>
<journal-title>EGUsphere</journal-title>
<abbrev-journal-title abbrev-type="publisher">EGUsphere</abbrev-journal-title>
<abbrev-journal-title abbrev-type="nlm-ta">EGUsphere</abbrev-journal-title>
</journal-title-group>
<issn pub-type="epub"></issn>
<publisher><publisher-name>Copernicus Publications</publisher-name>
<publisher-loc>Göttingen, Germany</publisher-loc>
</publisher>
</journal-meta>
<article-meta>
<article-id pub-id-type="doi">10.5194/egusphere-2026-4623</article-id>
<title-group>
<article-title>Quantifying the Southern Ocean &lt;em&gt;p&lt;/em&gt;CO&lt;sub&gt;2&lt;/sub&gt; sampling error with synthetic observations from an ocean model</article-title>
</title-group>
<contrib-group><contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Nissen</surname>
<given-names>Cara</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5804-3191</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1">
<sup>1</sup>
</xref>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff2">
<sup>2</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Gray</surname>
<given-names>Alison R.</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1644-7654</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff3">
<sup>3</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Lovenduski</surname>
<given-names>Nicole S.</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5893-1009</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff2">
<sup>2</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Maltrud</surname>
<given-names>Mathew</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff4">
<sup>4</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Conlon</surname>
<given-names>LeAnn</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff4">
<sup>4</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
</contrib-group><aff id="aff1">
<label>1</label>
<addr-line>Department of Freshwater and Marine Ecology, Institute for Biodiversity and Ecosystem Dynamics, University of  Amsterdam, Amsterdam, the Netherlands</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff2">
<label>2</label>
<addr-line>Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences and Institute of Arctic and Alpine Research, University of Colorado, Boulder, Boulder, CO, USA</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff3">
<label>3</label>
<addr-line>School of Oceanography, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff4">
<label>4</label>
<addr-line>Fluid Dynamics and Solid Mechanics (T-3), Los Alamos National Laboratory, Los Alamos, NM, USA</addr-line>
</aff>
<pub-date pub-type="epub">
<day>10</day>
<month>08</month>
<year>2026</year>
</pub-date>
<volume>2026</volume>
<fpage>1</fpage>
<lpage>24</lpage>
<permissions>
<copyright-statement>Copyright: &#x000a9; 2026 Cara Nissen et al.</copyright-statement>
<copyright-year>2026</copyright-year>
<license license-type="open-access">
<license-p>This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License. To view a copy of this licence, visit <ext-link ext-link-type="uri"  xlink:href="https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/</ext-link></license-p>
</license>
</permissions>
<self-uri xlink:href="https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2026/egusphere-2026-4623/">This article is available from https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2026/egusphere-2026-4623/</self-uri>
<self-uri xlink:href="https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2026/egusphere-2026-4623/egusphere-2026-4623.pdf">The full text article is available as a PDF file from https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2026/egusphere-2026-4623/egusphere-2026-4623.pdf</self-uri>
<abstract>
<p>Constraining the Southern Ocean carbon sink is vital for understanding global carbon cycling and climate. Monthly 1&amp;deg;x1&amp;deg; gridded products of surface seawater partial pressure of carbon dioxide (&lt;em&gt;p&lt;/em&gt;CO&lt;sub&gt;2&lt;/sub&gt;) are routinely used to detect change in Southern Ocean carbon cycling. Despite Southern Ocean sampling being sparse and skewed to summer months, the uncertainty arising from incomplete sampling at the monthly 1&amp;deg;x1&amp;deg; scale is unquantified to date, and it remains unclear how this &lt;em&gt;p&lt;/em&gt;CO&lt;sub&gt;2&lt;/sub&gt; sampling error affects estimates of monthly gridded &lt;em&gt;p&lt;/em&gt;CO&lt;sub&gt;2&lt;/sub&gt; products and derived air-sea CO&lt;sub&gt;2&lt;/sub&gt; fluxes. Here, we quantify the Southern Ocean &lt;em&gt;p&lt;/em&gt;CO&lt;sub&gt;2&lt;/sub&gt; sampling error using synthetic observations from an eddy-permitting ocean-sea ice-biogeochemistry configuration of the Energy Exascale Earth System Model. Using instantaneous snapshots of the model state at the times and locations of real-world ship and float observations, we reconstruct gridded monthly 1&amp;deg;x1&amp;deg; &lt;em&gt;p&lt;/em&gt;CO&lt;sub&gt;2&lt;/sub&gt; datasets over 2014&amp;ndash;2023 and compare them with the simulated model &lt;em&gt;p&lt;/em&gt;CO&lt;sub&gt;2&lt;/sub&gt; output, isolating the error due to incomplete observational coverage at the monthly 1&amp;deg;x1&amp;deg; scale. We find that, on average, &lt;em&gt;p&lt;/em&gt;CO&lt;sub&gt;2&lt;/sub&gt; derived from synthetic observations is 13&amp;ndash;14 &lt;em&gt;&amp;mu;&lt;/em&gt;atm lower than the modeled monthly mean, with individual grid cells exhibiting uncertainties up to an order of magnitude larger, primarily caused by undersampling during high-wind events in the Southern Ocean. Our results imply that the rate of oceanic CO&lt;sub&gt;2&lt;/sub&gt; uptake derived from available &lt;em&gt;p&lt;/em&gt;CO&lt;sub&gt;2&lt;/sub&gt; observations is biased high. Since the &lt;em&gt;p&lt;/em&gt;CO&lt;sub&gt;2&lt;/sub&gt; uncertainty due to incomplete observational coverage exceeds other sources of uncertainty in gridded &lt;em&gt;p&lt;/em&gt;CO&lt;sub&gt;2&lt;/sub&gt; data products, e.g., measurement error, it represents a substantial, previously overlooked contribution that should be propagated through gap-filled &lt;em&gt;p&lt;/em&gt;CO&lt;sub&gt;2&lt;/sub&gt; data products and estimates of the Southern Ocean and global ocean carbon sink.</p>
</abstract>
<counts><page-count count="24"/></counts>
<funding-group>
<award-group id="gs1">
<funding-source>U.S. Department of Energy</funding-source>
<award-id>DE-SC0025505</award-id>
</award-group>
<award-group id="gs2">
<funding-source>National Science Foundation</funding-source>
<award-id>2332379</award-id>
<award-id>1946578</award-id>
<award-id>2110258</award-id>
</award-group>
<award-group id="gs3">
<funding-source>NOAA Research</funding-source>
<award-id>NA24OARX431C0057</award-id>
</award-group>
</funding-group>
</article-meta>
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