Ocean waves erode the waterline of Antarctic ice-shelf fronts and carve a thermo-erosional notch. The notch is hidden from satellites, yet it preconditions front collapse and footloose calving, so the link between notch growth and observable front retreat matters for how wave-exposed ice shelves lose mass. We study this link at the Fimbul Ice Shelf, East Antarctica, in January–February 2024. The widely used White et al. (1980) erosion formulation is extended in two directions: a component-wise spectral treatment of irregular seas, and a breaking-aware wave profile that accounts for shoaling over the submerged ice foot revealed by remotely operated vehicle (ROV) profiling. Forced with hourly ERA5 waves, the extended model predicts about 110 m of cumulative waterline erosion over the matched 7 January–27 February window. Satellite observations show considerably more retreat: about 264 m from an S1-guided Sentinel-2 plateau-break method, and 266 m from manually digitised Sentinel-1 fronts over a slightly longer window. Under the baseline assumptions (α = 1, Δ<em>T</em><sub>wi</sub> = 1 °C), the model therefore falls short of the observed retreat by a factor of about 2.4. Part of this residual may be hydrodynamic, since post-breaking turbulence is not represented; part may be mechanical, because collapse and footloose calving can convert notch erosion into larger observable retreat. Unmeasured near-ice thermal driving remains a first-order uncertainty, and front-position observations alone cannot separate these contributions.