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<front>
<journal-meta>
<journal-id journal-id-type="publisher">EGUsphere</journal-id>
<journal-title-group>
<journal-title>EGUsphere</journal-title>
<abbrev-journal-title abbrev-type="publisher">EGUsphere</abbrev-journal-title>
<abbrev-journal-title abbrev-type="nlm-ta">EGUsphere</abbrev-journal-title>
</journal-title-group>
<issn pub-type="epub"></issn>
<publisher><publisher-name>Copernicus Publications</publisher-name>
<publisher-loc>Göttingen, Germany</publisher-loc>
</publisher>
</journal-meta>
<article-meta>
<article-id pub-id-type="doi">10.5194/egusphere-2026-4586</article-id>
<title-group>
<article-title>UPSurgeML (v1.0) &amp;ndash; A Machine Learning Workflow for Probabilistic Ensemble Forecast of Tropical Cyclone Storm Surge</article-title>
</title-group>
<contrib-group><contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Daneshvar</surname>
<given-names>Fariborz</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8375-4697</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1">
<sup>1</sup>
</xref>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff2">
<sup>2</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Mani</surname>
<given-names>Soroosh</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1">
<sup>1</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Pringle</surname>
<given-names>William</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2877-4812</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff3">
<sup>3</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Velissariou</surname>
<given-names>Panagiotis</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff4">
<sup>4</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Yang</surname>
<given-names>Zizang</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1">
<sup>1</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Seroka</surname>
<given-names>Gregory</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1">
<sup>1</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Myers</surname>
<given-names>Edward</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1">
<sup>1</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Moghimi</surname>
<given-names>Saeed</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1">
<sup>1</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
</contrib-group><aff id="aff1">
<label>1</label>
<addr-line>Coast Survey Development Laboratory, Office of Coast Survey, NOAA National Ocean Service, Silver Spring, MD, USA</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff2">
<label>2</label>
<addr-line>Ocean Associates Inc. (OAI), Arlington,VA, USA</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff3">
<label>3</label>
<addr-line>Environmental Science Division, Argonne National Laboratory</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff4">
<label>4</label>
<addr-line>Cooperative Programs for the Advancement of Earth System Science (CPAESS), University Corporation for Atmospheric Research (UCAR), Boulder, CO, USA</addr-line>
</aff>
<pub-date pub-type="epub">
<day>15</day>
<month>09</month>
<year>2026</year>
</pub-date>
<volume>2026</volume>
<fpage>1</fpage>
<lpage>22</lpage>
<permissions>
<copyright-statement>Copyright: &#x000a9; 2026 Fariborz Daneshvar et al.</copyright-statement>
<copyright-year>2026</copyright-year>
<license license-type="open-access">
<license-p>This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License. To view a copy of this licence, visit <ext-link ext-link-type="uri"  xlink:href="https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/</ext-link></license-p>
</license>
</permissions>
<self-uri xlink:href="https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2026/egusphere-2026-4586/">This article is available from https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2026/egusphere-2026-4586/</self-uri>
<self-uri xlink:href="https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2026/egusphere-2026-4586/egusphere-2026-4586.pdf">The full text article is available as a PDF file from https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2026/egusphere-2026-4586/egusphere-2026-4586.pdf</self-uri>
<abstract>
<p>UPSurgeML is an open-source software package for probabilistic storm surge analysis. The code is written in Python, C, and Fortran, and the codebase complies with the National Centers for Environmental Prediction&amp;rsquo;s (NCEP) guidelines, making it suitable for deployment on High Performance Computers (HPC) like the Weather and Climate Operational Supercomputing System (WCOSS). By utilizing an unstructured mesh, UPSurgeML refines the prediction of water elevations in complex coastal regions. It provides both deterministic and probabilistic storm surge forecasts driven by a small ensemble of hurricane forecasts. UPSurgeML uses parametric hurricane wind and pressure fields, and astronomical tide forcing with a hydrodynamic ocean model to simulate water elevations. Unlike the current Probabilistic Surge (PSurge) model utilized by the National Hurricane Center (NHC), UPSurgeML employs a machine learning surrogate modeling framework. This approach enables a smaller (order of magnitude reduction) hydrodynamic ensemble size that would otherwise be necessary. Consequently, UPSurgeML provides high-resolution water elevation probability fields and exceedance levels with reasonably low computational cost, and has demonstrated its usability as experimental guidance during the hurricane seasons.</p>
</abstract>
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