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<front>
<journal-meta>
<journal-id journal-id-type="publisher">EGUsphere</journal-id>
<journal-title-group>
<journal-title>EGUsphere</journal-title>
<abbrev-journal-title abbrev-type="publisher">EGUsphere</abbrev-journal-title>
<abbrev-journal-title abbrev-type="nlm-ta">EGUsphere</abbrev-journal-title>
</journal-title-group>
<issn pub-type="epub"></issn>
<publisher><publisher-name>Copernicus Publications</publisher-name>
<publisher-loc>Göttingen, Germany</publisher-loc>
</publisher>
</journal-meta>
<article-meta>
<article-id pub-id-type="doi">10.5194/egusphere-2026-458</article-id>
<title-group>
<article-title>Impact of Extreme Rainfall on Triggering Conditions and Susceptibility for Shallow landslides: a case study in the Alpes-Maritimes region (France)</article-title>
</title-group>
<contrib-group><contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Armand</surname>
<given-names>Lucie</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1">
<sup>1</sup>
</xref>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff2">
<sup>2</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Chambon</surname>
<given-names>Guillaume</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9812-9683</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1">
<sup>1</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Cerdan</surname>
<given-names>Olivier</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1395-3102</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff2">
<sup>2</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Thiery</surname>
<given-names>Yannick</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0252-3441</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff3">
<sup>3</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Marçot</surname>
<given-names>Nathalie</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff4">
<sup>4</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Ferradou</surname>
<given-names>Louis</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff4">
<sup>4</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Saby</surname>
<given-names>Nicolas</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8964-1194</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff5">
<sup>5</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Bernardie</surname>
<given-names>Séverine</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff2">
<sup>2</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
</contrib-group><aff id="aff1">
<label>1</label>
<addr-line>Univ. Grenoble Alpes, INRAE, CNRS, IRD, Grenoble INP, IGE, 38000 Grenoble, France</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff2">
<label>2</label>
<addr-line>BRGM, F-45060 Orléans, France</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff3">
<label>3</label>
<addr-line>BRGM, F-33600 Pessac, France</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff4">
<label>4</label>
<addr-line>BRGM, F-13276 Marseille, France</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff5">
<label>5</label>
<addr-line>INRAE, Unité Info&amp;Sol, 45075 Orléans, France</addr-line>
</aff>
<pub-date pub-type="epub">
<day>04</day>
<month>02</month>
<year>2026</year>
</pub-date>
<volume>2026</volume>
<fpage>1</fpage>
<lpage>39</lpage>
<permissions>
<copyright-statement>Copyright: &#x000a9; 2026 Lucie Armand et al.</copyright-statement>
<copyright-year>2026</copyright-year>
<license license-type="open-access">
<license-p>This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License. To view a copy of this licence, visit <ext-link ext-link-type="uri"  xlink:href="https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/</ext-link></license-p>
</license>
</permissions>
<self-uri xlink:href="https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2026/egusphere-2026-458/">This article is available from https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2026/egusphere-2026-458/</self-uri>
<self-uri xlink:href="https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2026/egusphere-2026-458/egusphere-2026-458.pdf">The full text article is available as a PDF file from https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2026/egusphere-2026-458/egusphere-2026-458.pdf</self-uri>
<abstract>
<p>Prediction of shallow landslides at the regional scale generally relies on statistical analyses of landslide inventories. Rainfall-duration thresholds and susceptibility maps are among the most common approaches to anticipate future landslide occurrences. However, the outputs and reliability of these approaches can be strongly affected by the representativeness of the landslides included in the inventory. This study specifically investigates the impact of landslides triggered by an extreme rainfall event on the determination of rainfall-duration thresholds and susceptibility maps. We consider the case of Storm Alex, a millennial return period rainfall event, which hit the Alpes-Maritimes region (France) on October 2, 2020. The analysis is based on an inventory of 5,383 shallow landslides, including 1,656 landslides triggered by Storm Alex. The CTRL-T algorithm was used to compute statistical rainfall-duration thresholds with and without the inclusion of Storm Alex landslides. A Random Forest approach was used to produce and compare susceptibility maps under the same two configurations. Results show that: (a) rainfall-duration thresholds derived from datasets including Storm Alex landslides are significantly higher; (b) the exceptional rainfall intensity triggered landslides in areas having an initial lower susceptibility; and (c) including these events in susceptibility modeling alters the spatial distribution of susceptibility values. This study provides a quantitative analysis of the impact of landslides triggered by extreme rainfall events on statistical prediction models.</p>
</abstract>
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<funding-group>
<award-group id="gs1">
<funding-source>Agence Nationale de la Recherche</funding-source>
<award-id>ANR-22-CE04-0021</award-id>
<award-id>ANR-22-EXIR-0003</award-id>
</award-group>
</funding-group>
</article-meta>
</front>
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