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<front>
<journal-meta>
<journal-id journal-id-type="publisher">EGUsphere</journal-id>
<journal-title-group>
<journal-title>EGUsphere</journal-title>
<abbrev-journal-title abbrev-type="publisher">EGUsphere</abbrev-journal-title>
<abbrev-journal-title abbrev-type="nlm-ta">EGUsphere</abbrev-journal-title>
</journal-title-group>
<issn pub-type="epub"></issn>
<publisher><publisher-name>Copernicus Publications</publisher-name>
<publisher-loc>Göttingen, Germany</publisher-loc>
</publisher>
</journal-meta>
<article-meta>
<article-id pub-id-type="doi">10.5194/egusphere-2026-4532</article-id>
<title-group>
<article-title>Characterizing Natural Aerosol Variability and its Uncertainty in the Earth System</article-title>
</title-group>
<contrib-group><contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Mahowald</surname>
<given-names>Natalie</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2873-997X</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1">
<sup>1</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Liddy</surname>
<given-names>Hannah</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff2">
<sup>2</sup>
</xref>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff3">
<sup>3</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Marlon</surname>
<given-names>Jennifer</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8299-9609</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff4">
<sup>4</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Tsigaridis</surname>
<given-names>Kostas</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5328-819X</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff2">
<sup>2</sup>
</xref>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff3">
<sup>3</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Winckler</surname>
<given-names>Gisela</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff5">
<sup>5</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Hamilton</surname>
<given-names>Douglas</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8171-5723</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff6">
<sup>6</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Kok</surname>
<given-names>Jasper</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0464-8325</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff7">
<sup>7</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Sigl</surname>
<given-names>Michael</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff8">
<sup>8</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Abell</surname>
<given-names>Jordan</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff9">
<sup>9</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Aboagye-Okyere</surname>
<given-names>Adwoa</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1">
<sup>1</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Amooli</surname>
<given-names>Joe Adabouk</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0009-0003-6646-318X</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff10">
<sup>10</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Albani</surname>
<given-names>Samuel</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9736-5134</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff11">
<sup>11</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Bauer</surname>
<given-names>Susanne</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7823-8690</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff3">
<sup>3</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Beaudon</surname>
<given-names>Emilie</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8186-6433</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff12">
<sup>12</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Brown</surname>
<given-names>Hunter</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1814-7874</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff13">
<sup>13</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Chellman</surname>
<given-names>Nathan</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff14">
<sup>14</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Cosentino</surname>
<given-names>Nicolás</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9023-2726</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff15">
<sup>15</sup>
</xref>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff16">
<sup>16</sup>
</xref>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff17">
<sup>17</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Goodkin</surname>
<given-names>Nathalie</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9697-5520</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff18">
<sup>18</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Guiterman</surname>
<given-names>Christopher</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff19">
<sup>19</sup>
</xref>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff20">
<sup>20</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Hantson</surname>
<given-names>Stijn</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4607-9204</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff21">
<sup>21</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>He</surname>
<given-names>Chengfei</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff22">
<sup>22</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Intveld</surname>
<given-names>Aviva</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff23">
<sup>23</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Kaplan</surname>
<given-names>Jed</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9919-7613</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff24">
<sup>24</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Klavans</surname>
<given-names>Jeremy</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6156-8981</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff25">
<sup>25</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Lambert</surname>
<given-names>Fabrice</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2192-024X</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff26">
<sup>26</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Liu</surname>
<given-names>Haobo</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0009-0004-5842-9210</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff27">
<sup>27</sup>
</xref>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff28">
<sup>28</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Loutre</surname>
<given-names>Marie-France</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6944-4038</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff29">
<sup>29</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>McConnell</surname>
<given-names>Joe</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9051-5240</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff14">
<sup>14</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>McGraw</surname>
<given-names>Zachary</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0964-3996</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff10">
<sup>10</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Mezuman</surname>
<given-names>Keren</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff2">
<sup>2</sup>
</xref>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff3">
<sup>3</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Miller</surname>
<given-names>Ron</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2122-0443</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff3">
<sup>3</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>O’Mara</surname>
<given-names>Nicholas</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3738-3928</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff4">
<sup>4</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Ong</surname>
<given-names>Maria Rosabelle</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9271-4083</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff18">
<sup>18</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Schmidt</surname>
<given-names>Gavin</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2258-0486</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff3">
<sup>3</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Vachula</surname>
<given-names>Richard</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff30">
<sup>30</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Wu</surname>
<given-names>Lily</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1">
<sup>1</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Zhang</surname>
<given-names>Bingqing</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8478-2016</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff31">
<sup>31</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
</contrib-group><aff id="aff1">
<label>1</label>
<addr-line>Department of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, Cornell University, Ithaca, NY, USA</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff2">
<label>2</label>
<addr-line>Center for Climate Systems Research, Columbia University, New York, USA</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff3">
<label>3</label>
<addr-line>NASA Goddard Institute of Space Studies, New York, NY, USA</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff4">
<label>4</label>
<addr-line>School of the Environment, Yale University, New Haven, CT, USA</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff5">
<label>5</label>
<addr-line>Columbia Climate School and Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory, Columbia University, New York, USA</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff6">
<label>6</label>
<addr-line>Marine, Earth, and Atmospheric Science, North Carolina State University, Raleigh, NC, USA</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff7">
<label>7</label>
<addr-line>Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, University of California – Los Angeles, USA</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff8">
<label>8</label>
<addr-line>University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff9">
<label>9</label>
<addr-line>Department of Earth and Environmental Sciences, Lehigh University, Bethlehem, PA, USA</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff10">
<label>10</label>
<addr-line>Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory, Columbia University, New York, USA</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff11">
<label>11</label>
<addr-line>Department of Environmental and Earth Sciences, University of Milano-Bicocca, Milan, Italy</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff12">
<label>12</label>
<addr-line>School of Earth Sciences, The Ohio State University, Columbus, OH, USA</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff13">
<label>13</label>
<addr-line>University of Wyoming, Laramie, WY, USA</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff14">
<label>14</label>
<addr-line>Division of Hydrologic Sciences, Desert Research Institute, Reno, NV, USA</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff15">
<label>15</label>
<addr-line>Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales, Universidad de Buenos Aires, Buenos Aires, Argentina</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff16">
<label>16</label>
<addr-line>Centro de Investigaciones del Mar y la Atmósfera (CIMA, CONICET-UBA), Buenos Aires, Argentina</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff17">
<label>17</label>
<addr-line>Instituto Franco-Argentino de Estudios sobre el Clima y sus Impactos (IFAECI, IRL 3351, CNRS-CONICET-IRD-UBA), Buenos Aires, Argentina</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff18">
<label>18</label>
<addr-line>Department of Earth and Planetary Sciences, American Museum of Natural History, New York, NY, USA</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff19">
<label>19</label>
<addr-line>Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences, University of Colorado, Boulder, Boulder, CO, USA</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff20">
<label>20</label>
<addr-line>NOAA&apos;s National Centers for Environmental Information, Boulder, CO, USA</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff21">
<label>21</label>
<addr-line>Universidad del Rosario, Bogotá, Colombia</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff22">
<label>22</label>
<addr-line>Department of Marine and Environmental Sciences, Marine Science Center, Northeastern University,  Boston, MA, USA</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff23">
<label>23</label>
<addr-line>Department of Earth and Environmental Sciences and Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory, Columbia University, New York, USA</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff24">
<label>24</label>
<addr-line>Department of Earth, Energy, and Environment, University of Calgary, Calgary, Canada</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff25">
<label>25</label>
<addr-line>Rosenstiel School of Marine, Atmospheric, and Earth Sciences, University of Miami, Miami, FL, USA</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff26">
<label>26</label>
<addr-line>Geography Institute, Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile, Santiago, Chile</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff27">
<label>27</label>
<addr-line>School of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, Georgia Institute of Technology, Atlanta, GA, USA</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff28">
<label>28</label>
<addr-line>Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, Peking University, Beijing, China</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff29">
<label>29</label>
<addr-line>Past Global Changes (PAGES), Hochschulstrasse 4, 3012 Bern, Switzerland</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff30">
<label>30</label>
<addr-line>Department of Geosciences, Auburn University, Auburn, AL, USA</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff31">
<label>31</label>
<addr-line>Department of the Geophysical Sciences, University of Chicago, Chicago, IL, USA</addr-line>
</aff>
<pub-date pub-type="epub">
<day>14</day>
<month>08</month>
<year>2026</year>
</pub-date>
<volume>2026</volume>
<fpage>1</fpage>
<lpage>97</lpage>
<permissions>
<copyright-statement>Copyright: &#x000a9; 2026 Natalie Mahowald et al.</copyright-statement>
<copyright-year>2026</copyright-year>
<license license-type="open-access">
<license-p>This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License. To view a copy of this licence, visit <ext-link ext-link-type="uri"  xlink:href="https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/</ext-link></license-p>
</license>
</permissions>
<self-uri xlink:href="https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2026/egusphere-2026-4532/">This article is available from https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2026/egusphere-2026-4532/</self-uri>
<self-uri xlink:href="https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2026/egusphere-2026-4532/egusphere-2026-4532.pdf">The full text article is available as a PDF file from https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2026/egusphere-2026-4532/egusphere-2026-4532.pdf</self-uri>
<abstract>
<p>Aerosol radiative forcing represents the largest source of uncertainty for calculating present-day climate sensitivity. This uncertainty has been underestimated in climate models, as they have not adequately accounted for uncertainties in the emissions of aerosols prior to the satellite era. This is especially the case for natural aerosols, such as mineral dust and aerosols from biomass burning. In this paper, we take a step towards reducing this uncertainty by providing a roadmap for improved integration of proxy-based observational constraints on past aerosol variability with model simulations. We first review existing literature on the importance of natural aerosol radiative forcing during historical and paleo-time periods, with a focus on the Last Glacial Maximum and the preindustrial era (ca. 1850) to the present. We then compile existing paleo-data archives and describe their ability to constrain emissions of aerosols, highlighting existing gaps. Model-data combinations are available to estimate radiative effects for dust and volcanoes in several time periods, and for biomass burning for preindustrial to present day, but are not available for other aerosols. Modeled feedbacks of aerosols to climate (W/m&lt;sup&gt;2&lt;/sup&gt;/&amp;deg;C) are 10&amp;ndash;100⨉ lower than model-data derived estimates for dust, casting doubt on our ability to successfully model feedbacks in the current generation of Earth system models. Finally, we propose a framework for integrating paleo-archives with models through harmonized datasets, proxy&amp;ndash;model translation metrics, and regularized inversion approaches, and identify priority measurements needed to reduce uncertainty in both aerosol loading and radiative-effect efficiency across climate states.</p>
</abstract>
<counts><page-count count="97"/></counts>
</article-meta>
</front>
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<back>
</back>
</article>