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<front>
<journal-meta>
<journal-id journal-id-type="publisher">EGUsphere</journal-id>
<journal-title-group>
<journal-title>EGUsphere</journal-title>
<abbrev-journal-title abbrev-type="publisher">EGUsphere</abbrev-journal-title>
<abbrev-journal-title abbrev-type="nlm-ta">EGUsphere</abbrev-journal-title>
</journal-title-group>
<issn pub-type="epub"></issn>
<publisher><publisher-name>Copernicus Publications</publisher-name>
<publisher-loc>Göttingen, Germany</publisher-loc>
</publisher>
</journal-meta>
<article-meta>
<article-id pub-id-type="doi">10.5194/egusphere-2026-4515</article-id>
<title-group>
<article-title>A nested time-window framework for evaluating sub-daily precipitation extremes in two convection permitting model datasets</article-title>
</title-group>
<contrib-group><contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Carlo</surname>
<given-names>Oliver</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1">
<sup>1</sup>
</xref>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff2">
<sup>2</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Fedele</surname>
<given-names>Giusy</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2376-8015</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1">
<sup>1</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Stocchi</surname>
<given-names>Paolo</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7175-3294</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff3">
<sup>3</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Calmanti</surname>
<given-names>Sandro</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0002-4382-7687</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff4">
<sup>4</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Raffa</surname>
<given-names>Mario</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1">
<sup>1</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Mercogliano</surname>
<given-names>Paola</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7236-010X</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1">
<sup>1</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Lionello</surname>
<given-names>Piero</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0779-5681</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff2">
<sup>2</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
</contrib-group><aff id="aff1">
<label>1</label>
<addr-line>CMCC Foundation – Euro-Mediterranean Center on Climate Change, Caserta, Italy</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff2">
<label>2</label>
<addr-line>DiSTeBA – Dipartimento di Scienze e Tecnologie Biologiche ed Ambientali, University of Salento, Lecce, Italy</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff3">
<label>3</label>
<addr-line>ISAC – Istituto di Scienze Atmosferiche e Clima, CNR, Bologna, Italy</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff4">
<label>4</label>
<addr-line>ENEA – Italian National Agency for New Technologies, Rome, Italy</addr-line>
</aff>
<pub-date pub-type="epub">
<day>30</day>
<month>07</month>
<year>2026</year>
</pub-date>
<volume>2026</volume>
<fpage>1</fpage>
<lpage>29</lpage>
<permissions>
<copyright-statement>Copyright: &#x000a9; 2026 Oliver Carlo et al.</copyright-statement>
<copyright-year>2026</copyright-year>
<license license-type="open-access">
<license-p>This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License. To view a copy of this licence, visit <ext-link ext-link-type="uri"  xlink:href="https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/</ext-link></license-p>
</license>
</permissions>
<self-uri xlink:href="https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2026/egusphere-2026-4515/">This article is available from https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2026/egusphere-2026-4515/</self-uri>
<self-uri xlink:href="https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2026/egusphere-2026-4515/egusphere-2026-4515.pdf">The full text article is available as a PDF file from https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2026/egusphere-2026-4515/egusphere-2026-4515.pdf</self-uri>
<abstract>
<p>High-resolution convection-permitting models (CPMs) provide vital datasets for studying localized extreme precipitation and associated multi-hazard risks like landslides and floods. Yet validating CPM datasets against observations remains a challenge. This study evaluates two sub-daily CPM datasets, VHR-REA_IT and LAM-HIND, against observations over a 10-year period across two Italian regions: Emilia-Romagna and Campania. Extreme precipitation is defined using the 95th percentile of wet-event intensities across accumulation durations of 1, 2, 4, 12, and 24 hours.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Conventional verification metrics only partially assess dataset performance and hide differences in the temporal organization of precipitation extremes. Therefore, a new nested time-window framework is presented to better capture the association between short- and long-duration time window extremes (STWEs and LTWEs, respectively). Observations show that STWEs and LTWEs are only partially associated. Depending on region and season, around 7&amp;ndash;15 % of observed 1-hour STWEs are embedded within 24-hour LTWEs. CPMs reproduce this cross-timescale organisation substantially better than ERA5, yet are overestimated, indicating excess temporal persistence of simulated heavy-rainfall. Consequently, LTWEs are more dependable than STWEs, as CPMs distribute short extreme precipitation bursts into longer durations with persistently higher volumes.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Differences between the CPM datasets are small. LAM-HIND exhibits subtly higher detection and event-overlap scores but a higher false-alarm rate and stronger cross-timescale coupling overestimation. VHR-REA_IT more closely reproduces the observed temporal association between short- and long-duration extremes. These differences may stem from the &amp;lsquo;double penalty&amp;rsquo; effect, choice of an intermediate nesting strategy, and sensitivity in resolving sub-grid turbulent fluxes. However, they are both substantially improved over coarse products like ERA5 for sub-daily extreme precipitation.</p>
</abstract>
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