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<front>
<journal-meta>
<journal-id journal-id-type="publisher">EGUsphere</journal-id>
<journal-title-group>
<journal-title>EGUsphere</journal-title>
<abbrev-journal-title abbrev-type="publisher">EGUsphere</abbrev-journal-title>
<abbrev-journal-title abbrev-type="nlm-ta">EGUsphere</abbrev-journal-title>
</journal-title-group>
<issn pub-type="epub"></issn>
<publisher><publisher-name>Copernicus Publications</publisher-name>
<publisher-loc>Göttingen, Germany</publisher-loc>
</publisher>
</journal-meta>
<article-meta>
<article-id pub-id-type="doi">10.5194/egusphere-2026-4488</article-id>
<title-group>
<article-title>Towards Resolving Equifinality in Aerosol-Cloud Radiative Forcing Through Process-Level Constraints</article-title>
</title-group>
<contrib-group><contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Stanford</surname>
<given-names>McKenna</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8697-4364</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1">
<sup>1</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Mahfouz</surname>
<given-names>Naser</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7097-1430</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1">
<sup>1</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Muelmenstaedt</surname>
<given-names>Johannes</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1105-6678</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1">
<sup>1</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Mikkelsen</surname>
<given-names>August</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3630-6170</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff2">
<sup>2</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Burrows</surname>
<given-names>Susannah</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0745-7252</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1">
<sup>1</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
</contrib-group><aff id="aff1">
<label>1</label>
<addr-line>Atmospheric, Climate, and Earth Sciences Division, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland, WA, USA</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff2">
<label>2</label>
<addr-line>Department of Atmospheric Science, University of Wyoming, Laramie, WY, USA</addr-line>
</aff>
<pub-date pub-type="epub">
<day>12</day>
<month>08</month>
<year>2026</year>
</pub-date>
<volume>2026</volume>
<fpage>1</fpage>
<lpage>36</lpage>
<permissions>
<copyright-statement>Copyright: &#x000a9; 2026 McKenna Stanford et al.</copyright-statement>
<copyright-year>2026</copyright-year>
<license license-type="open-access">
<license-p>This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License. To view a copy of this licence, visit <ext-link ext-link-type="uri"  xlink:href="https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/</ext-link></license-p>
</license>
</permissions>
<self-uri xlink:href="https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2026/egusphere-2026-4488/">This article is available from https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2026/egusphere-2026-4488/</self-uri>
<self-uri xlink:href="https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2026/egusphere-2026-4488/egusphere-2026-4488.pdf">The full text article is available as a PDF file from https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2026/egusphere-2026-4488/egusphere-2026-4488.pdf</self-uri>
<abstract>
<p>Equifinality&amp;mdash;where multiple parameter combinations produce indistinguishable climate states&amp;mdash;is a fundamental obstacle to calibrating Earth system models (ESMs). Parameter sets that agree well with the observed mean state can produce dramatically different responses to external perturbations, reflecting a mathematical non-uniqueness that standard calibration approaches cannot resolve. This poses a critical challenge for constraining the effective radiative forcing due to aerosol-cloud interactions (ERF&lt;sub&gt;ACI&lt;/sub&gt;), which depends sensitively on cloud responses to aerosol perturbations. We use a perturbed parameter ensemble that, as a minimal working example, varies only two parameters related to warm-rain formation (autoconversion and accretion) and constrain on synthetic observations in a perfect-model setup. Even under ideal conditions, radiation-only constraints produce a fundamentally degenerate, bimodal ERF&lt;sub&gt;ACI&lt;/sub&gt; posterior. Incorporating the observable cloud state (liquid water path, 𝔏) for warm marine stratocumulus clouds can resolve this bimodality, but its utility diminishes with large observational uncertainty. A far more robust constraint is achieved by directly targeting the underlying physical process rates that modulate 𝔏. Process-rate constraints effectively eliminate bimodality and dramatically reduce posterior uncertainty even under large assumed observational uncertainties. As process rates are not directly observable, we test their observable proxies as a tractable alternative, finding they offer only limited additional value over cloud state due to their emergent behavior. These results establish a critical principle for ESM calibration: to achieve robust constraints on ERF&lt;sub&gt;ACI&lt;/sub&gt; and beyond, it is necessary to constrain both the emergent climate state and the physical pathways that govern its formation.</p>
</abstract>
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<funding-group>
<award-group id="gs1">
<funding-source>Pacific Northwest National Laboratory</funding-source>
<award-id>Laboratory Directed Research and Development (LDRD) program Grant #83768</award-id>
</award-group>
<award-group id="gs2">
<funding-source>U.S. Department of Energy</funding-source>
<award-id>Regional &amp; Global Model Analysis (RGMA) DE-SC0025208</award-id>
</award-group>
</funding-group>
</article-meta>
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