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<journal-meta>
<journal-id journal-id-type="publisher">EGUsphere</journal-id>
<journal-title-group>
<journal-title>EGUsphere</journal-title>
<abbrev-journal-title abbrev-type="publisher">EGUsphere</abbrev-journal-title>
<abbrev-journal-title abbrev-type="nlm-ta">EGUsphere</abbrev-journal-title>
</journal-title-group>
<issn pub-type="epub"></issn>
<publisher><publisher-name>Copernicus Publications</publisher-name>
<publisher-loc>Göttingen, Germany</publisher-loc>
</publisher>
</journal-meta>
<article-meta>
<article-id pub-id-type="doi">10.5194/egusphere-2026-4485</article-id>
<title-group>
<article-title>Towards the European Tephra Hazard Map: Methodology and Catalogue of Footprints</article-title>
</title-group>
<contrib-group><contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Folch</surname>
<given-names>Arnau</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0677-6366</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1">
<sup>1</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Sandri</surname>
<given-names>Laura</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3254-2336</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff2">
<sup>2</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Barsotti</surname>
<given-names>Sara</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff3">
<sup>3</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Aguiar</surname>
<given-names>Simone</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7992-2881</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff4">
<sup>4</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Martínez Montesinos</surname>
<given-names>Beatriz</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0002-4611-6127</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1">
<sup>1</sup>
</xref>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff2">
<sup>2</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Guerrero</surname>
<given-names>Alejandra</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1">
<sup>1</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Tierz</surname>
<given-names>Pablo</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8889-9900</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1">
<sup>1</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Pascual</surname>
<given-names>Heribert</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1">
<sup>1</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Hernandez</surname>
<given-names>Eva</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0009-0007-9296-0752</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1">
<sup>1</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Mingari</surname>
<given-names>Leonardo</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1">
<sup>1</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Costa</surname>
<given-names>Antonio</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0002-4987-6471</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff5">
<sup>5</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
</contrib-group><aff id="aff1">
<label>1</label>
<addr-line>Geociencias Barcelona (GEO3BCN-CSIC), Barcelona, Spain</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff2">
<label>2</label>
<addr-line>Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Sezione di Bologna, Italy</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff3">
<label>3</label>
<addr-line>Icelandic Meteorological Office (IMO), Iceland</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff4">
<label>4</label>
<addr-line>Instituto de Investigação em Vulcanologia e Avaliação de Riscos (IVAR), Ponta Delgada, Portugal</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff5">
<label>5</label>
<addr-line>Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Sezione di Bologna, Sede di Perugia, Italy</addr-line>
</aff>
<pub-date pub-type="epub">
<day>25</day>
<month>09</month>
<year>2026</year>
</pub-date>
<volume>2026</volume>
<fpage>1</fpage>
<lpage>38</lpage>
<permissions>
<copyright-statement>Copyright: &#x000a9; 2026 Arnau Folch et al.</copyright-statement>
<copyright-year>2026</copyright-year>
<license license-type="open-access">
<license-p>This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License. To view a copy of this licence, visit <ext-link ext-link-type="uri"  xlink:href="https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/</ext-link></license-p>
</license>
</permissions>
<self-uri xlink:href="https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2026/egusphere-2026-4485/">This article is available from https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2026/egusphere-2026-4485/</self-uri>
<self-uri xlink:href="https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2026/egusphere-2026-4485/egusphere-2026-4485.pdf">The full text article is available as a PDF file from https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2026/egusphere-2026-4485/egusphere-2026-4485.pdf</self-uri>
<abstract>
<p>Many parts of Europe are exposed to tephra hazards that jeopardise regions around volcanoes and the continental airspace. Quantifying and mapping the impacts from future eruptions is relevant to aviation stakeholders and to national and regional civil protection administrations and agencies. This paper presents a novel methodology for long- and short-term Probabilistic Volcano Hazard Assessment (PVHA) from tephra based on a large catalogue of footprints and associated metadata, each footprint representing a single-scenario model realisation. The methodology is used to generate a first version of the European Tephra Hazard Map (ETHM), a collaborative initiative aiming at providing single- and multi-volcano mappings consistent and homogeneous across spatiotemporal scales and volcanoes. More than 53,000 footprints from 12 European volcanoes were computed by running the FALL3D atmospheric dispersal model on the accelerated partition of the MareNostrum-5 supercomputer. In regional model nests (2 km model grid resolution), footprints identify areas prone to hazardous tephra fallout. At European scale (10 km model grid resolution), footprints delineate hazardous airspace regions in terms of ash concentration at critical flight-level layers. The catalogue of footprints is stored in a Simulation Data Lake (SDL@CINECA) to ensure accessibility and re-usability, as well as to ease the addition of footprints from other volcanoes in the future. In parallel, a lightweight service facilitates downstream hazard mapping and dynamic update of hazard based on user-given Probability Density Functions (PDFs), decoupling the computational workload of simulating the physical process from the actual hazard quantification.</p>
</abstract>
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<funding-group>
<award-group id="gs1">
<funding-source>European Commission</funding-source>
<award-id>101093038</award-id>
<award-id>101058518</award-id>
</award-group>
<award-group id="gs2">
<funding-source>Ministerio de Ciencia e Innovación</funding-source>
<award-id>MCIN/AEI/10.13039/501100011033</award-id>
</award-group>
<award-group id="gs3">
<funding-source>European High Performance Computing Joint Undertaking</funding-source>
<award-id>EHPCREG- 2024R02-128</award-id>
</award-group>
</funding-group>
</article-meta>
</front>
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