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<front>
<journal-meta>
<journal-id journal-id-type="publisher">EGUsphere</journal-id>
<journal-title-group>
<journal-title>EGUsphere</journal-title>
<abbrev-journal-title abbrev-type="publisher">EGUsphere</abbrev-journal-title>
<abbrev-journal-title abbrev-type="nlm-ta">EGUsphere</abbrev-journal-title>
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<issn pub-type="epub"></issn>
<publisher><publisher-name>Copernicus Publications</publisher-name>
<publisher-loc>Göttingen, Germany</publisher-loc>
</publisher>
</journal-meta>
<article-meta>
<article-id pub-id-type="doi">10.5194/egusphere-2026-4418</article-id>
<title-group>
<article-title>Agricultural flood risk under seasonally varying rainfall extremes and crop vulnerability</article-title>
</title-group>
<contrib-group><contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Annis</surname>
<given-names>Antonio</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6162-4691</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1">
<sup>1</sup>
</xref>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff2">
<sup>2</sup>
</xref>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff3">
<sup>3</sup>
</xref>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff4">
<sup>4</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Nardi</surname>
<given-names>Fernando</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6562-3159</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff5">
<sup>5</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Marani</surname>
<given-names>Marco</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1493-6913</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1">
<sup>1</sup>
</xref>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff2">
<sup>2</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
</contrib-group><aff id="aff1">
<label>1</label>
<addr-line>Department of Civil, Environmental and Architectural Engineering, University of Padua, Italy</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff2">
<label>2</label>
<addr-line>Research Center on Climate Change Impacts, University of Padova – Rovigo Campus, Italy</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff3">
<label>3</label>
<addr-line>Department of Geosciences, University of Padova, Italy</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff4">
<label>4</label>
<addr-line>Department of Land, Environment, Agriculture and Forestry, University of Padova, Italy</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff5">
<label>5</label>
<addr-line>Department of Civil Engineering and Computer Science Engineering, Tor Vergata University, Italy</addr-line>
</aff>
<pub-date pub-type="epub">
<day>30</day>
<month>07</month>
<year>2026</year>
</pub-date>
<volume>2026</volume>
<fpage>1</fpage>
<lpage>41</lpage>
<permissions>
<copyright-statement>Copyright: &#x000a9; 2026 Antonio Annis et al.</copyright-statement>
<copyright-year>2026</copyright-year>
<license license-type="open-access">
<license-p>This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License. To view a copy of this licence, visit <ext-link ext-link-type="uri"  xlink:href="https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/</ext-link></license-p>
</license>
</permissions>
<self-uri xlink:href="https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2026/egusphere-2026-4418/">This article is available from https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2026/egusphere-2026-4418/</self-uri>
<self-uri xlink:href="https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2026/egusphere-2026-4418/egusphere-2026-4418.pdf">The full text article is available as a PDF file from https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2026/egusphere-2026-4418/egusphere-2026-4418.pdf</self-uri>
<abstract>
<p>Agricultural systems are highly vulnerable to flooding, particularly when extreme precipitation events occur during sensitive crop growth stages. However, most flood-risk assessments rely on static annual hazard scenarios and simplified design storms, neglecting the combined effects of hydrological seasonality, rainfall temporal structure, and crop phenology. In this study, we propose a probabilistic-hydrological-hydraulic framework for agricultural flood-risk assessment under seasonally varying short-duration extreme precipitation. The approach integrates non-asymptotic multivariate frequency analysis, copula-based dependence modelling among rainfall durations, stochastic microcanonical rainfall disaggregation, hydraulic simulations, and crop-specific flood depth-duration vulnerability functions. Flood-hazard maps are generated at the monthly scale and coupled with seasonally varying crop exposure and vulnerability conditions. The framework is applied to a flood-prone agricultural area in northern Italy. Results show that rainfall temporal structure and event duration substantially influence expected annual losses, with long-duration events generally producing the highest damages due to prolonged inundation and waterlogging conditions. The copula-based multi-duration analysis reveals a considerable uncertainty associated with inter-duration dependence, highlighting that the use of a single representative storm duration may significantly bias agricultural flood-risk estimates. The adopted microcanonical rainfall generator also proved effective in reproducing realistic multi-burst rainfall structures and temporally clustered events, which are particularly relevant for representing cumulative soil saturation and flood persistence processes. Overall, the proposed methodology provides a physically consistent and transferable framework for probabilistic agricultural flood-risk assessment and may support climate-risk analyses, adaptation planning, and flood-risk management in agricultural systems exposed to increasingly complex hydrometeorological extremes.</p>
</abstract>
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<funding-source>NextGenerationEU</funding-source>
<award-id>PE0000005</award-id>
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