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<front>
<journal-meta>
<journal-id journal-id-type="publisher">EGUsphere</journal-id>
<journal-title-group>
<journal-title>EGUsphere</journal-title>
<abbrev-journal-title abbrev-type="publisher">EGUsphere</abbrev-journal-title>
<abbrev-journal-title abbrev-type="nlm-ta">EGUsphere</abbrev-journal-title>
</journal-title-group>
<issn pub-type="epub"></issn>
<publisher><publisher-name>Copernicus Publications</publisher-name>
<publisher-loc>Göttingen, Germany</publisher-loc>
</publisher>
</journal-meta>
<article-meta>
<article-id pub-id-type="doi">10.5194/egusphere-2026-4413</article-id>
<title-group>
<article-title>Propagation of CAMS Aerosol Uncertainty to Clear-sky Solar Irradiance Estimates</article-title>
</title-group>
<contrib-group><contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Moustaka</surname>
<given-names>Anna</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0009-0007-0492-2247</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1">
<sup>1</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Papachristopoulou</surname>
<given-names>Kyriakoula</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8000-5714</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1">
<sup>1</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Charalampous</surname>
<given-names>Georgia</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0009-0004-2161-7197</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff2">
<sup>2</sup>
</xref>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff3">
<sup>3</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Kazadzis</surname>
<given-names>Stelios</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1031-0216</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1">
<sup>1</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
</contrib-group><aff id="aff1">
<label>1</label>
<addr-line>Physicalisch Meteorologisches Observatorium, World Radiation Center, Davos, 7260, Switzerland</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff2">
<label>2</label>
<addr-line>Department of Resilient Society Eratosthenes Centre of Excellence, Limassol, 3012, Cyprus</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff3">
<label>3</label>
<addr-line>Department of Civil Engineering &amp; Geomatics, Cyprus University of Technology, Limassol, 3036, Cyprus</addr-line>
</aff>
<pub-date pub-type="epub">
<day>04</day>
<month>09</month>
<year>2026</year>
</pub-date>
<volume>2026</volume>
<fpage>1</fpage>
<lpage>28</lpage>
<permissions>
<copyright-statement>Copyright: &#x000a9; 2026 Anna Moustaka et al.</copyright-statement>
<copyright-year>2026</copyright-year>
<license license-type="open-access">
<license-p>This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License. To view a copy of this licence, visit <ext-link ext-link-type="uri"  xlink:href="https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/</ext-link></license-p>
</license>
</permissions>
<self-uri xlink:href="https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2026/egusphere-2026-4413/">This article is available from https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2026/egusphere-2026-4413/</self-uri>
<self-uri xlink:href="https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2026/egusphere-2026-4413/egusphere-2026-4413.pdf">The full text article is available as a PDF file from https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2026/egusphere-2026-4413/egusphere-2026-4413.pdf</self-uri>
<abstract>
<p>Atmospheric aerosols strongly influence surface solar radiation (SSR) through scattering and absorption processes, introducing substantial uncertainties into SSR estimates. Despite the increasing use of atmospheric reanalysis products for solar resource assessment, the propagation of aerosol-related uncertainty into SSR calculations remains insufficiently quantified. In this study, we derive aerosol optical depth (AOD) uncertainties for the fourth-generation ECMWF Atmospheric Composition Reanalysis 4 (EAC4) and investigate their propagation into clear-sky estimates of global horizontal irradiance (GHI) and direct normal irradiance (DNI) over the 60&amp;deg; S&amp;ndash;60&amp;deg; N domain for the 2003&amp;ndash;2024 period. Prognostic AOD uncertainties are calculated using collocated EAC4 and Aerosol Robotic Network (AERONET) observations, while the resulting global mean relative AOD uncertainty is approximately 47 %. Radiative kernels are subsequently used to quantify the sensitivity of clear-sky SSR to AOD perturbations, enabling the propagation of AOD uncertainty into GHI and DNI estimates. The results reveal pronounced spatial and seasonal variability, with the largest propagated uncertainties occurring over regions affected by persistent anthropogenic pollution, biomass burning, and desert dust. Relative GHI uncertainties generally remain below 5&amp;ndash;6 %, whereas relative DNI uncertainties frequently exceed 18 % over major aerosol source regions and reach 25&amp;ndash;35 % seasonally under elevated aerosol loading. Overall, the proposed framework provides a computationally efficient methodology for generating uncertainty-aware solar radiation products and supports future investigations of aerosol-driven dimming and brightening, as well as long-term solar energy resource assessments under changing atmospheric conditions.</p>
</abstract>
<counts><page-count count="28"/></counts>
<funding-group>
<award-group id="gs1">
<funding-source>European Partnership on Metrology</funding-source>
<award-id>24GRD04 SOLiD-PV</award-id>
</award-group>
</funding-group>
</article-meta>
</front>
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