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<front>
<journal-meta>
<journal-id journal-id-type="publisher">EGUsphere</journal-id>
<journal-title-group>
<journal-title>EGUsphere</journal-title>
<abbrev-journal-title abbrev-type="publisher">EGUsphere</abbrev-journal-title>
<abbrev-journal-title abbrev-type="nlm-ta">EGUsphere</abbrev-journal-title>
</journal-title-group>
<issn pub-type="epub"></issn>
<publisher><publisher-name>Copernicus Publications</publisher-name>
<publisher-loc>Göttingen, Germany</publisher-loc>
</publisher>
</journal-meta>
<article-meta>
<article-id pub-id-type="doi">10.5194/egusphere-2026-4400</article-id>
<title-group>
<article-title>Millennial-scale sensitivity of Pine Island and Thwaites Glaciers to effective pressure and ocean melt parameterisations</article-title>
</title-group>
<contrib-group><contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Trevers</surname>
<given-names>Matt</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4199-3945</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1">
<sup>1</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Cornford</surname>
<given-names>Stephen L.</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1844-274X</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1">
<sup>1</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Payne</surname>
<given-names>Antony J.</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8825-8425</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff2">
<sup>2</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
</contrib-group><aff id="aff1">
<label>1</label>
<addr-line>Centre for Polar Observation and Modelling, School of Geographical Sciences, University of Bristol, Bristol, UK</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff2">
<label>2</label>
<addr-line>School of Environmental Sciences, University of Liverpool, Liverpool, UK</addr-line>
</aff>
<pub-date pub-type="epub">
<day>05</day>
<month>08</month>
<year>2026</year>
</pub-date>
<volume>2026</volume>
<fpage>1</fpage>
<lpage>23</lpage>
<permissions>
<copyright-statement>Copyright: &#x000a9; 2026 Matt Trevers et al.</copyright-statement>
<copyright-year>2026</copyright-year>
<license license-type="open-access">
<license-p>This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License. To view a copy of this licence, visit <ext-link ext-link-type="uri"  xlink:href="https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/</ext-link></license-p>
</license>
</permissions>
<self-uri xlink:href="https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2026/egusphere-2026-4400/">This article is available from https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2026/egusphere-2026-4400/</self-uri>
<self-uri xlink:href="https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2026/egusphere-2026-4400/egusphere-2026-4400.pdf">The full text article is available as a PDF file from https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2026/egusphere-2026-4400/egusphere-2026-4400.pdf</self-uri>
<abstract>
<p>Pine Island and Thwaites Glaciers, situated in the Amundsen Sea Embayment in West Antarctica, are the two largest modern-day contributors of sea level rise from Antarctica, and their potential future retreat threatens the stability of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet over coming centuries. Here we present numerical simulations exploring the sensitivity of both glaciers to reducing the basal friction (bed-weakening) in response to ice thinning and the rate of ice shelf melting over millennial timescales. We find that bed-weakening leads to faster rates of retreat and sea level rise when confined to the grounding zone, but expanding the region of bed-weakening delayed retreat instead. Pine Island Glacier is highly sensitive to increases in the ocean melt rate, while Thwaites Glacier is more sensitive to bed-weakening. The sea level contribution from Thwaites Glacier over the next century is particularly insensitive to changes in ocean melting. Despite the relatively weak buttressing from the Thwaites Ice Shelf, it still provides sufficient support locally to suppress the rapid retreat that occurred with the complete removal of all floating ice. These results highlight the sensitivity of sea level projections to the relatively poorly known basal effective pressure, and the need for future ice flow models to be coupled with with highly-skilled basal hydrology models.</p>
</abstract>
<counts><page-count count="23"/></counts>
<funding-group>
<award-group id="gs1">
<funding-source>Natural Environment Research Council</funding-source>
<award-id>NE/Y503320/1</award-id>
</award-group>
</funding-group>
</article-meta>
</front>
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<back>
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