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<front>
<journal-meta>
<journal-id journal-id-type="publisher">EGUsphere</journal-id>
<journal-title-group>
<journal-title>EGUsphere</journal-title>
<abbrev-journal-title abbrev-type="publisher">EGUsphere</abbrev-journal-title>
<abbrev-journal-title abbrev-type="nlm-ta">EGUsphere</abbrev-journal-title>
</journal-title-group>
<issn pub-type="epub"></issn>
<publisher><publisher-name>Copernicus Publications</publisher-name>
<publisher-loc>Göttingen, Germany</publisher-loc>
</publisher>
</journal-meta>
<article-meta>
<article-id pub-id-type="doi">10.5194/egusphere-2026-4364</article-id>
<title-group>
<article-title>Road Construction-Triggered Landslides: daily-resolution attribution and pre-construction suitability mapping in the Lali and Baku Gad watersheds of Himalaya, Far-Western Nepal</article-title>
</title-group>
<contrib-group><contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Awasthi</surname>
<given-names>Bhuwan</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2052-2618</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1">
<sup>1</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Ninsawat</surname>
<given-names>Sarawut</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1">
<sup>1</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Tripathi</surname>
<given-names>Nitin Kumar</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1">
<sup>1</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Chao</surname>
<given-names>Kuo-Chieh</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1">
<sup>1</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
</contrib-group><aff id="aff1">
<label>1</label>
<addr-line>Asian Institute of Technology, Thailand</addr-line>
</aff>
<pub-date pub-type="epub">
<day>29</day>
<month>09</month>
<year>2026</year>
</pub-date>
<volume>2026</volume>
<fpage>1</fpage>
<lpage>42</lpage>
<permissions>
<copyright-statement>Copyright: &#x000a9; 2026 Bhuwan Awasthi et al.</copyright-statement>
<copyright-year>2026</copyright-year>
<license license-type="open-access">
<license-p>This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License. To view a copy of this licence, visit <ext-link ext-link-type="uri"  xlink:href="https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/</ext-link></license-p>
</license>
</permissions>
<self-uri xlink:href="https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2026/egusphere-2026-4364/">This article is available from https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2026/egusphere-2026-4364/</self-uri>
<self-uri xlink:href="https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2026/egusphere-2026-4364/egusphere-2026-4364.pdf">The full text article is available as a PDF file from https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2026/egusphere-2026-4364/egusphere-2026-4364.pdf</self-uri>
<abstract>
<p>Monsoon mountain landslide inventories face a trigger-attribution problem: failures caused by road construction can be credited to rainfall when the inventory is observed only quarterly or annually. In two adjacent watersheds in Darchula district, Far-Western Nepal where bulldozer roads began in 2017, we combined daily PlanetScope imagery (2017&amp;ndash;2025), gauge and CHIRPS rainfall at each failure, daily road-construction records, and a quarterly inventory. Failures absent on the last clear image before a construction date and present on it were classed construction-coincident failure (CCF, n = 173 along about 69 km of road); failures mapped from 2016 imagery, before any road existed, gave a pre-road natural baseline (PRN, n = 127). Attribution proceeded by exclusion. The failures were not rainfall-driven: 63.6&amp;nbsp;% fell on dry days by gauge and 78.6&amp;nbsp;% by CHIRPS, with no rainfall correlation at any timescale. They tracked the construction front rather than the older road, 87.3&amp;nbsp;% lying within 50 m of the same-day front against 28.9&amp;nbsp;% of the old road, and they formed a distinct population, smaller and less elongate than the natural failures. One third never reached the inventory, and 60&amp;nbsp;% of those that did had failed on dry days, events a quarterly record would assign to the monsoon. Persistence was then modelled as a second-stage outcome: south-facing aspect and failure size were its dominant and most stable controls across penalised regression, Random Forest, and SHAP, and a four-variable pre-construction map placed about 90&amp;nbsp;% of persistent failures in terrain flagged unsuitable beforehand, holding on an independent watershed. Thus, daily imagery isolates a construction trigger that seasonal inventories conflate with rain, and yields a transferable basis for siting spoil before a road is cut.</p>
</abstract>
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