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<front>
<journal-meta>
<journal-id journal-id-type="publisher">EGUsphere</journal-id>
<journal-title-group>
<journal-title>EGUsphere</journal-title>
<abbrev-journal-title abbrev-type="publisher">EGUsphere</abbrev-journal-title>
<abbrev-journal-title abbrev-type="nlm-ta">EGUsphere</abbrev-journal-title>
</journal-title-group>
<issn pub-type="epub"></issn>
<publisher><publisher-name>Copernicus Publications</publisher-name>
<publisher-loc>Göttingen, Germany</publisher-loc>
</publisher>
</journal-meta>
<article-meta>
<article-id pub-id-type="doi">10.5194/egusphere-2026-4363</article-id>
<title-group>
<article-title>From logistic regression to deep learning: machine learning modeling of lightning in ERA5 reanalysis data</article-title>
</title-group>
<contrib-group><contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Burq</surname>
<given-names>Adrien</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0009-0007-1783-203X</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1">
<sup>1</sup>
</xref>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff2">
<sup>2</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Jouhaud</surname>
<given-names>Jean</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff2">
<sup>2</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Xing</surname>
<given-names>Victor</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2480-0208</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff2">
<sup>2</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Bouvier</surname>
<given-names>Victor</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff2">
<sup>2</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Forcadell</surname>
<given-names>Vincent</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff2">
<sup>2</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Taszarek</surname>
<given-names>Mateusz</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9578-5872</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff3">
<sup>3</sup>
</xref>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff4">
<sup>4</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Vrac</surname>
<given-names>Mathieu</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6176-0439</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1">
<sup>1</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Faranda</surname>
<given-names>Davide</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5001-5698</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1">
<sup>1</sup>
</xref>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff5">
<sup>5</sup>
</xref>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff6">
<sup>6</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
</contrib-group><aff id="aff1">
<label>1</label>
<addr-line>Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l’Environnement, UMR 8212 CEA-CNRS-UVSQ, Université Paris-Saclay, IPSL, 91191 Gif-sur-Yvette, France,</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff2">
<label>2</label>
<addr-line>Descartes Underwriting, 148 rue de Courcelles, 75017 Paris, France</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff3">
<label>3</label>
<addr-line>Department of Meteorology and Climatology, Adam Mickiewicz University, Pozna´n, Poland</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff4">
<label>4</label>
<addr-line>Skywarn Poland, Warsaw, Poland</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff5">
<label>5</label>
<addr-line>London Mathematical Laboratory, 8 Margravine Gardens, London, W6 8RH, UK</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff6">
<label>6</label>
<addr-line>Laboratoire de Météorologie Dynamique/IPSL, École Normale Supérieure, PSL Research University, Sorbonne Université, École Polytechnique, IP Paris, CNRS, Paris, 75005, France</addr-line>
</aff>
<pub-date pub-type="epub">
<day>17</day>
<month>08</month>
<year>2026</year>
</pub-date>
<volume>2026</volume>
<fpage>1</fpage>
<lpage>35</lpage>
<permissions>
<copyright-statement>Copyright: &#x000a9; 2026 Adrien Burq et al.</copyright-statement>
<copyright-year>2026</copyright-year>
<license license-type="open-access">
<license-p>This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License. To view a copy of this licence, visit <ext-link ext-link-type="uri"  xlink:href="https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/</ext-link></license-p>
</license>
</permissions>
<self-uri xlink:href="https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2026/egusphere-2026-4363/">This article is available from https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2026/egusphere-2026-4363/</self-uri>
<self-uri xlink:href="https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2026/egusphere-2026-4363/egusphere-2026-4363.pdf">The full text article is available as a PDF file from https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2026/egusphere-2026-4363/egusphere-2026-4363.pdf</self-uri>
<abstract>
<p>Most lightning parameterization schemes rely on local approaches where the predictors are the atmospheric variables in the same grid cell as the output. To validate the hypothesis that large-scale thunderstorm clusters &amp;ndash; such as mesoscale convective systems &amp;ndash; are driven by broad spatial predictor patterns, we model lightning occurrence using architectures capable of processing surrounding grid-cell data rather than relying solely on local point-based inputs. This study develops a deep convolutional neural network (U-Net) to model lightning occurrence across Europe using ERA5 reanalysis data. The model is trained on 13 years of data and evaluated with a leave-one-year-out cross-validation strategy. We compare the performance of the U-Net to several local machine learning models of increasing complexity, including logistic regression, generalized additive model, extreme gradient boosting, and multi-layer perceptron. We find that the U-Net outperforms all single grid cell models in overall performance and on the most extreme events. Through a feature importance study, we find that the most important predictors depend on the model type. Finally we show with a spatial sensitivity study that the U-Net captures mesoscale patterns driving lightning occurrence.</p>
</abstract>
<counts><page-count count="35"/></counts>
<funding-group>
<award-group id="gs1">
<funding-source>Agence Nationale de la Recherche</funding-source>
<award-id>ANR-22-PETA-0016</award-id>
<award-id>ANR-22-EXTR-0005</award-id>
<award-id>ANR-22-EXTR-00011</award-id>
</award-group>
<award-group id="gs2">
<funding-source>Narodowe Centrum Nauki</funding-source>
<award-id>2020/39/D/ST10/00768</award-id>
</award-group>
</funding-group>
</article-meta>
</front>
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