<?xml version="1.0" encoding="UTF-8"?>
<!DOCTYPE article PUBLIC "-//NLM//DTD Journal Publishing DTD v3.0 20080202//EN" "https://jats.nlm.nih.gov/nlm-dtd/publishing/3.0/journalpublishing3.dtd">
<article xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink" article-type="research-article" specific-use="SMUR" dtd-version="3.0" xml:lang="en">
<front>
<journal-meta>
<journal-id journal-id-type="publisher">EGUsphere</journal-id>
<journal-title-group>
<journal-title>EGUsphere</journal-title>
<abbrev-journal-title abbrev-type="publisher">EGUsphere</abbrev-journal-title>
<abbrev-journal-title abbrev-type="nlm-ta">EGUsphere</abbrev-journal-title>
</journal-title-group>
<issn pub-type="epub"></issn>
<publisher><publisher-name>Copernicus Publications</publisher-name>
<publisher-loc>Göttingen, Germany</publisher-loc>
</publisher>
</journal-meta>
<article-meta>
<article-id pub-id-type="doi">10.5194/egusphere-2026-4287</article-id>
<title-group>
<article-title>Assessing trends in irrigation water withdrawal using a data-driven temporal extrapolation framework</article-title>
</title-group>
<contrib-group><contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Zarpas</surname>
<given-names>Paul</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0009-0000-6002-4811</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1">
<sup>1</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Ramos</surname>
<given-names>Maria-Helena</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1133-4164</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1">
<sup>1</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Tallec</surname>
<given-names>Gaëlle</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1394-4118</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1">
<sup>1</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Allard</surname>
<given-names>Denis</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7944-1906</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff2">
<sup>2</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Sarrazin</surname>
<given-names>Fanny J.</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9928-9566</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1">
<sup>1</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
</contrib-group><aff id="aff1">
<label>1</label>
<addr-line>Université Paris-Saclay, INRAE, UR HYCAR, 1 Rue Pierre-Gilles de Gennes, 92160 Antony, France</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff2">
<label>2</label>
<addr-line>Biostatistisc and Spatial Processes (BioSP), INRAE, Avignon 84914, France</addr-line>
</aff>
<pub-date pub-type="epub">
<day>17</day>
<month>08</month>
<year>2026</year>
</pub-date>
<volume>2026</volume>
<fpage>1</fpage>
<lpage>33</lpage>
<permissions>
<copyright-statement>Copyright: &#x000a9; 2026 Paul Zarpas et al.</copyright-statement>
<copyright-year>2026</copyright-year>
<license license-type="open-access">
<license-p>This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License. To view a copy of this licence, visit <ext-link ext-link-type="uri"  xlink:href="https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/</ext-link></license-p>
</license>
</permissions>
<self-uri xlink:href="https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2026/egusphere-2026-4287/">This article is available from https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2026/egusphere-2026-4287/</self-uri>
<self-uri xlink:href="https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2026/egusphere-2026-4287/egusphere-2026-4287.pdf">The full text article is available as a PDF file from https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2026/egusphere-2026-4287/egusphere-2026-4287.pdf</self-uri>
<abstract>
<p>Assessing long-term trends in irrigation water withdrawal (IWW) is essential for understanding the impacts of climate change on water resources and agricultural systems, yet long-term observations remain scarce. In France, annual IWW observations are only available from 2008 onward through the national water withdrawal database, limiting the analysis of long-term changes. To address this limitation, we develop a data-driven framework to reconstruct annual catchment-scale IWW over the 2000&amp;ndash;2022 period. The approach relies on a generalized additive model (GAM), using structural (e.g., area equipped for irrigation) and hydro-meteorological (e.g., monthly mean temperature) predictors. The model explicitly identifies inter-catchment and inter-annual variability through a decomposition of total IWW into a base IWW term and a relative deviation term. The model is evaluated using a series of Leave-One-Period-Out cross-validation experiments. Results show robust predictive performance across all experiments (RMSE &amp;lt; 2 mm/yr) and reliable uncertainty estimates. The framework was then used to reconstruct annual IWW over the 2000&amp;ndash;2007 period and to generate continuous time series of IWW at the catchment scale over 2000&amp;ndash;2022. The reconstructed time series reveal widespread positive trends, with significant increases detected in 92 % of catchments. Trend analysis indicates that changes in total IWW are primarily driven by the relative deviation component. A regional synthesis further identifies the Mediterranean region as a major hotspot, combining high IWW and strong IWW positive trends.</p>
</abstract>
<counts><page-count count="33"/></counts>
</article-meta>
</front>
<body/>
<back>
</back>
</article>