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<front>
<journal-meta>
<journal-id journal-id-type="publisher">EGUsphere</journal-id>
<journal-title-group>
<journal-title>EGUsphere</journal-title>
<abbrev-journal-title abbrev-type="publisher">EGUsphere</abbrev-journal-title>
<abbrev-journal-title abbrev-type="nlm-ta">EGUsphere</abbrev-journal-title>
</journal-title-group>
<issn pub-type="epub"></issn>
<publisher><publisher-name>Copernicus Publications</publisher-name>
<publisher-loc>Göttingen, Germany</publisher-loc>
</publisher>
</journal-meta>
<article-meta>
<article-id pub-id-type="doi">10.5194/egusphere-2026-4283</article-id>
<title-group>
<article-title>Novel analogue-based and geostatistical approaches for space-time prediction of environmental variables</article-title>
</title-group>
<contrib-group><contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Gerber</surname>
<given-names>Loïc</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9565-8459</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1">
<sup>1</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Gravey</surname>
<given-names>Mathieu</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0871-1507</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff2">
<sup>2</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Mariéthoz</surname>
<given-names>Grégoire</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8820-2808</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1">
<sup>1</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
</contrib-group><aff id="aff1">
<label>1</label>
<addr-line>Faculty of Geosciences and Environment, University of Lausanne, Switzerland</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff2">
<label>2</label>
<addr-line>Institute for Interdisciplinary Mountain Research, Austrian Academy of Sciences, Innsbruck, Austria</addr-line>
</aff>
<pub-date pub-type="epub">
<day>07</day>
<month>09</month>
<year>2026</year>
</pub-date>
<volume>2026</volume>
<fpage>1</fpage>
<lpage>29</lpage>
<permissions>
<copyright-statement>Copyright: &#x000a9; 2026 Loïc Gerber et al.</copyright-statement>
<copyright-year>2026</copyright-year>
<license license-type="open-access">
<license-p>This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License. To view a copy of this licence, visit <ext-link ext-link-type="uri"  xlink:href="https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/</ext-link></license-p>
</license>
</permissions>
<self-uri xlink:href="https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2026/egusphere-2026-4283/">This article is available from https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2026/egusphere-2026-4283/</self-uri>
<self-uri xlink:href="https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2026/egusphere-2026-4283/egusphere-2026-4283.pdf">The full text article is available as a PDF file from https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2026/egusphere-2026-4283/egusphere-2026-4283.pdf</self-uri>
<abstract>
<p>In many environmental applications, it is important to obtain accurate and coherent reconstructions of environmental maps. These can be for example spatial representations of hydrological variables or satellite-based remote sensing products. To do this, analogue-based methods provide a fast and interpretable approach that is based on replicating patterns coming from historical observations and predictor similarity. However, their classical weighted-average aggregation tends to smooth spatial variability and attenuate extremes. This study evaluates whether analogue-based reconstruction of MODIS evapotranspiration (ET) over the Ebro watershed can be improved through local analogue selection and stochastic pattern-based aggregation. Several strategies are compared, including domain-wise and tile-wise analogue selection, inverse-distance weighted averaging, and two Multiple-Point Statistics simulation techniques, &lt;em&gt;chessQS &lt;/em&gt;and a new method named Anchor Sampling. Weighted averaging provides the best pixel-wise accuracy, image-structure agreement, and computational efficiency, while tile-wise analogue selection yields only marginal improvements over domain-wise selection. Anchor Sampling offers the most balanced stochastic option, improving variogram agreement, timestep water-balance error, and tail-value statistics while remaining closer to the deterministic baseline than &lt;em&gt;chessQS&lt;/em&gt;. In contrast, &lt;em&gt;chessQS &lt;/em&gt;increases spatial flexibility but reduces reconstruction accuracy and image-structure agreement in the present application. The results indicate that stochastic aggregation can help preserve aspects of spatial variability and distributions, but that simple analogue averaging remains a strong baseline for ET map reconstruction, unless the realism of the spatial structure or uncertainty representation are specifically required.</p>
</abstract>
<counts><page-count count="29"/></counts>
<funding-group>
<award-group id="gs1">
<funding-source>Schweizerischer Nationalfonds zur Förderung der Wissenschaftlichen Forschung</funding-source>
<award-id>204130</award-id>
</award-group>
</funding-group>
</article-meta>
</front>
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