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<front>
<journal-meta>
<journal-id journal-id-type="publisher">EGUsphere</journal-id>
<journal-title-group>
<journal-title>EGUsphere</journal-title>
<abbrev-journal-title abbrev-type="publisher">EGUsphere</abbrev-journal-title>
<abbrev-journal-title abbrev-type="nlm-ta">EGUsphere</abbrev-journal-title>
</journal-title-group>
<issn pub-type="epub"></issn>
<publisher><publisher-name>Copernicus Publications</publisher-name>
<publisher-loc>Göttingen, Germany</publisher-loc>
</publisher>
</journal-meta>
<article-meta>
<article-id pub-id-type="doi">10.5194/egusphere-2026-4214</article-id>
<title-group>
<article-title>MJO unlocks the stratospheric polar vortex influence on winter extreme precipitation over South China</article-title>
</title-group>
<contrib-group><contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Zhou</surname>
<given-names>Fang</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6059-0108</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1">
<sup>1</sup>
</xref>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff2">
<sup>2</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Han</surname>
<given-names>Shuo</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1">
<sup>1</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Yin</surname>
<given-names>Zhicong</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1">
<sup>1</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Han</surname>
<given-names>Tingting</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1">
<sup>1</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Hu</surname>
<given-names>Dingzhu</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1">
<sup>1</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
</contrib-group><aff id="aff1">
<label>1</label>
<addr-line>State Key Laboratory of Climate System Prediction and Risk Management/Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster, Ministry of Education/Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and  Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters, School of Atmospheric Sciences, Nanjing University of  Information Science and Technology, Nanjing 210044, China</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff2">
<label>2</label>
<addr-line>The Institute of Atmospheric Environment/Northeast China Cold Vortex Research Key Laboratory, China Meteorological Administration, Shenyang 110002, China</addr-line>
</aff>
<pub-date pub-type="epub">
<day>11</day>
<month>08</month>
<year>2026</year>
</pub-date>
<volume>2026</volume>
<fpage>1</fpage>
<lpage>19</lpage>
<permissions>
<copyright-statement>Copyright: &#x000a9; 2026 Fang Zhou et al.</copyright-statement>
<copyright-year>2026</copyright-year>
<license license-type="open-access">
<license-p>This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License. To view a copy of this licence, visit <ext-link ext-link-type="uri"  xlink:href="https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/</ext-link></license-p>
</license>
</permissions>
<self-uri xlink:href="https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2026/egusphere-2026-4214/">This article is available from https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2026/egusphere-2026-4214/</self-uri>
<self-uri xlink:href="https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2026/egusphere-2026-4214/egusphere-2026-4214.pdf">The full text article is available as a PDF file from https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2026/egusphere-2026-4214/egusphere-2026-4214.pdf</self-uri>
<abstract>
<p>Winter extreme precipitation over South China (SC) exerts profound impacts, yet its stratospheric drivers remain limited understood, with a long-standing puzzle of the statistically weak linkage between the stratospheric polar vortex (SPV) and SC rainfall extremes. Here, using observational analyses and CMIP6 historical simulations, we demonstrate that a Eurasia-shifted SPV (ESSPV) can increase SC winter extreme precipitation, but this modulation is strictly phase-locked to the Madden&amp;ndash;Julian Oscillation (MJO), occurring predominantly during MJO phases 2&amp;ndash;5. Two synergistic pathways explain this phenomenon. First, the ESSPV excites a Rossby wave across Eurasia, inducing a low-level northeasterly anomaly north of SC that strengthens local moisture convergence. Second, the ESSPV couples with the westerly quasi-biennial oscillation (WQBO), which amplifies the MJO-associated anomalous anticyclone over the western North Pacific and enhances low-latitude moisture transport toward SC. CMIP6 multi-model analyses further confirm that the fidelity of MJO phase 2&amp;ndash;5-associated western North Pacific anticyclone determines a model&apos;s ability to reproduce the observed linkage, firmly establishing the MJO as the indispensable gateway linking the SPV to SC extreme precipitation.</p>
</abstract>
<counts><page-count count="19"/></counts>
<funding-group>
<award-group id="gs1">
<funding-source>National Natural Science Foundation of China</funding-source>
<award-id>42394125</award-id>
</award-group>
<award-group id="gs2">
<funding-source>National Key Research and Development Program of China</funding-source>
<award-id>2024YFC3013100</award-id>
</award-group>
</funding-group>
</article-meta>
</front>
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