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<front>
<journal-meta>
<journal-id journal-id-type="publisher">EGUsphere</journal-id>
<journal-title-group>
<journal-title>EGUsphere</journal-title>
<abbrev-journal-title abbrev-type="publisher">EGUsphere</abbrev-journal-title>
<abbrev-journal-title abbrev-type="nlm-ta">EGUsphere</abbrev-journal-title>
</journal-title-group>
<issn pub-type="epub"></issn>
<publisher><publisher-name>Copernicus Publications</publisher-name>
<publisher-loc>Göttingen, Germany</publisher-loc>
</publisher>
</journal-meta>
<article-meta>
<article-id pub-id-type="doi">10.5194/egusphere-2026-4200</article-id>
<title-group>
<article-title>Understanding drivers of inter-model uncertainty in the dynamical response to stratospheric heating</article-title>
</title-group>
<contrib-group><contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Golja</surname>
<given-names>Colleen Marie</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2264-1015</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1">
<sup>1</sup>
</xref>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff2">
<sup>2</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Linz</surname>
<given-names>Marianna</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3241-5062</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff2">
<sup>2</sup>
</xref>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff3">
<sup>3</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Bednarz</surname>
<given-names>Ewa Monika</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7441-0497</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff4">
<sup>4</sup>
</xref>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff5">
<sup>5</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Visioni</surname>
<given-names>Daniele</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7342-2189</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff6">
<sup>6</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Kravitz</surname>
<given-names>Ben</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6318-1150</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff7">
<sup>7</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Dykema</surname>
<given-names>John A.</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff2">
<sup>2</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Frazer</surname>
<given-names>Michelle E.</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff8">
<sup>8</sup>
</xref>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff9">
<sup>9</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Jones</surname>
<given-names>Anthony C.</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3894-2867</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff10">
<sup>10</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Simpson</surname>
<given-names>Isla R.</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff11">
<sup>11</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Watanabe</surname>
<given-names>Shingo</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff12">
<sup>12</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
</contrib-group><aff id="aff1">
<label>1</label>
<addr-line>Department of Physics, Imperial College London, London, UK</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff2">
<label>2</label>
<addr-line>Harvard University John A. Paulson School of Engineering and Applied Sciences, Cambridge, MA, USA</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff3">
<label>3</label>
<addr-line>Reflective, San Francisco, CA, USA</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff4">
<label>4</label>
<addr-line>Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences (CIRES), University of Colorado Boulder, Boulder, CO, USA</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff5">
<label>5</label>
<addr-line>NOAA Chemical Sciences Laboratory, Boulder, CO, USA</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff6">
<label>6</label>
<addr-line>Department of Earth and Atmospheric Science, Cornell University, Ithaca, NY, USA</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff7">
<label>7</label>
<addr-line>Department of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, Indiana University, Bloomington, IN, USA</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff8">
<label>8</label>
<addr-line>Science Systems and Applications Inc., Lanham, MD 20706, USA</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff9">
<label>9</label>
<addr-line>NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, MD 20771, USA</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff10">
<label>10</label>
<addr-line>Department of Mathematics and Statistics, Faculty of Environment, Science and Economy, University of Exeter, Exeter, UK</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff11">
<label>11</label>
<addr-line>National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO, USA</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff12">
<label>12</label>
<addr-line>Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology, Yokohama, Japan</addr-line>
</aff>
<pub-date pub-type="epub">
<day>31</day>
<month>07</month>
<year>2026</year>
</pub-date>
<volume>2026</volume>
<fpage>1</fpage>
<lpage>46</lpage>
<permissions>
<copyright-statement>Copyright: &#x000a9; 2026 Colleen Marie Golja et al.</copyright-statement>
<copyright-year>2026</copyright-year>
<license license-type="open-access">
<license-p>This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License. To view a copy of this licence, visit <ext-link ext-link-type="uri"  xlink:href="https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/</ext-link></license-p>
</license>
</permissions>
<self-uri xlink:href="https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2026/egusphere-2026-4200/">This article is available from https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2026/egusphere-2026-4200/</self-uri>
<self-uri xlink:href="https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2026/egusphere-2026-4200/egusphere-2026-4200.pdf">The full text article is available as a PDF file from https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2026/egusphere-2026-4200/egusphere-2026-4200.pdf</self-uri>
<abstract>
<p>Stratospheric aerosol injection has emerged as a candidate climate intervention strategy to partially offset global surface warming. Previous work has demonstrated that lower stratospheric heating drives modifications to the stratospheric thermal profile, circulation, and water vapor, with downstream consequences for surface climate; however, the impact of stratospheric heating has not previously been characterized across a multi-model ensemble. This work presents first results from the Stratospheric Heating Model Intercomparison Project (SHeatMIP), in which an idealized 0.3 K/day tropical lower-stratospheric heating tendency is imposed across five climate models (CESM, GFDL, GISS, MIROC, UKESM). All models show robust increases in lower-stratospheric temperature, water vapor, and polar night jet strength in both hemispheres, with corresponding surface shifts in the subtropical and eddy-driven jets and a polar cap pressure response resembling a positive North Atlantic Oscillation phase. Despite qualitative agreement, inter-model spread is substantial, with differences of 1 K in the cold point temperature adjustment and 0.38 K in the global mean surface temperature response. The surface temperature spread strongly co-varies with the stratospheric water vapor response (R&lt;sup&gt;2&lt;/sup&gt; = 0.82), implicating water vapor as a key source of surface warming uncertainty. The forced polar vortex response shows strong co-variability with the climatological polar night jet strength (R&lt;sup&gt;2&lt;/sup&gt;=0.98), and projects onto the surface as a polar cap pressure anomaly. The results show that inter-model differences in the response to stratospheric heating may be traceable to the climatological mean state, offering a pathway toward observationally-constrained evaluation of model suitability for SAI research.</p>
</abstract>
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