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<front>
<journal-meta>
<journal-id journal-id-type="publisher">EGUsphere</journal-id>
<journal-title-group>
<journal-title>EGUsphere</journal-title>
<abbrev-journal-title abbrev-type="publisher">EGUsphere</abbrev-journal-title>
<abbrev-journal-title abbrev-type="nlm-ta">EGUsphere</abbrev-journal-title>
</journal-title-group>
<issn pub-type="epub"></issn>
<publisher><publisher-name>Copernicus Publications</publisher-name>
<publisher-loc>Göttingen, Germany</publisher-loc>
</publisher>
</journal-meta>
<article-meta>
<article-id pub-id-type="doi">10.5194/egusphere-2026-4187</article-id>
<title-group>
<article-title>From CMIP6 to eddy-rich models: does very-high resolution improve the representation of Mediterranean heavy precipitation events?</article-title>
</title-group>
<contrib-group><contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Saurral</surname>
<given-names>Ramiro I.</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8600-199X</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1">
<sup>1</sup>
</xref>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff2">
<sup>2</sup>
</xref>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff3">
<sup>3</sup>
</xref>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff4">
<sup>4</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Martín-Perellón</surname>
<given-names>Anna</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1">
<sup>1</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Campos</surname>
<given-names>Diego A.</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9351-7014</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1">
<sup>1</sup>
</xref>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff5">
<sup>5</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>González-Alemán</surname>
<given-names>Juan Jesús</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5940-7356</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff6">
<sup>6</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Loosveldt-Tomas</surname>
<given-names>Saskia</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1">
<sup>1</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Ortega</surname>
<given-names>Pablo</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0002-4135-9621</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1">
<sup>1</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
</contrib-group><aff id="aff1">
<label>1</label>
<addr-line>Barcelona Supercomputing Center (BSC), Barcelona, Spain</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff2">
<label>2</label>
<addr-line>CONICET-Universidad de Buenos Aires. Centro de Investigaciones del Mar y la Atmósfera (CIMA), Buenos Aires, Argentina</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff3">
<label>3</label>
<addr-line>Universidad de Buenos Aires, Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales, Departamento de Ciencias de la  Atmósfera y los Océanos, Buenos Aires, Argentina</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff4">
<label>4</label>
<addr-line>CNRS-IRD-CONICET-UBA. Instituto Franco-Argentino para el Estudio del Clima y sus Impactos (IRL 3351 IFAECI), Buenos Aires, Argentina</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff5">
<label>5</label>
<addr-line>Facultat de Física, Universitat de Barcelona, Barcelona, Spain</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff6">
<label>6</label>
<addr-line>Spanish State Meteorological Agency (AEMET), Department of Science, Madrid, Spain</addr-line>
</aff>
<pub-date pub-type="epub">
<day>07</day>
<month>08</month>
<year>2026</year>
</pub-date>
<volume>2026</volume>
<fpage>1</fpage>
<lpage>37</lpage>
<permissions>
<copyright-statement>Copyright: &#x000a9; 2026 Ramiro I. Saurral et al.</copyright-statement>
<copyright-year>2026</copyright-year>
<license license-type="open-access">
<license-p>This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License. To view a copy of this licence, visit <ext-link ext-link-type="uri"  xlink:href="https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/</ext-link></license-p>
</license>
</permissions>
<self-uri xlink:href="https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2026/egusphere-2026-4187/">This article is available from https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2026/egusphere-2026-4187/</self-uri>
<self-uri xlink:href="https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2026/egusphere-2026-4187/egusphere-2026-4187.pdf">The full text article is available as a PDF file from https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2026/egusphere-2026-4187/egusphere-2026-4187.pdf</self-uri>
<abstract>
<p>&lt;span style=&quot;font-weight: 400;&quot;&gt;The Mediterranean region is a recognized climate-change hotspot where heavy precipitation events are frequently associated with cut-off lows (COLs). However, traditional climate models show limited skill in representing both the climatology of these systems and their relationship with extreme rainfall. Here, we assess the impact of horizontal resolution on the simulation of Mediterranean COLs and associated precipitation using four very-high-resolution simulations from the EERIE project and eighteen standard-resolution CMIP6 models, with ERA5 reanalysis as reference.&lt;/span&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;span style=&quot;font-weight: 400;&quot;&gt;Results show that all models underestimate COL frequency over the Mediterranean, although this bias is substantially reduced in the eddy-rich EERIE simulations, particularly over the western Mediterranean. Reanalysis indicates that COLs contribute to 20&amp;ndash;40 % of total precipitation across much of the region, but their importance increases markedly for upper-tail events, accounting for more than 60 % of precipitation exceeding the 99th percentile over large areas. In contrast, CMIP6 models largely fail to reproduce this enhanced COL contribution to extremes. Several EERIE simulations, however, capture these observed relationships more realistically and produce substantially larger precipitation maxima associated with COLs.&lt;/span&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;span style=&quot;font-weight: 400;&quot;&gt;Future projections suggest a decrease in COL occurrence over the western and central Mediterranean, but contrasting responses in associated extreme precipitation emerge between EERIE and CMIP6 simulations. These results highlight the importance of very-high-resolution climate simulations for representing Mediterranean precipitation extremes and reveal persistent uncertainties in their future evolution.&lt;/span&gt;</p>
</abstract>
<counts><page-count count="37"/></counts>
<funding-group>
<award-group id="gs1">
<funding-source>HORIZON EUROPE Framework Programme</funding-source>
<award-id>101081383</award-id>
</award-group>
</funding-group>
</article-meta>
</front>
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