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<front>
<journal-meta>
<journal-id journal-id-type="publisher">EGUsphere</journal-id>
<journal-title-group>
<journal-title>EGUsphere</journal-title>
<abbrev-journal-title abbrev-type="publisher">EGUsphere</abbrev-journal-title>
<abbrev-journal-title abbrev-type="nlm-ta">EGUsphere</abbrev-journal-title>
</journal-title-group>
<issn pub-type="epub"></issn>
<publisher><publisher-name>Copernicus Publications</publisher-name>
<publisher-loc>Göttingen, Germany</publisher-loc>
</publisher>
</journal-meta>
<article-meta>
<article-id pub-id-type="doi">10.5194/egusphere-2026-4171</article-id>
<title-group>
<article-title>Physics-Based Machine Learning: Opportunities and Challenges for Mantle Convection</article-title>
</title-group>
<contrib-group><contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Valatsou</surname>
<given-names>Marilina</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1">
<sup>1</sup>
</xref>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff7">
<sup>7</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Degen</surname>
<given-names>Denise</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff2">
<sup>2</sup>
</xref>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff3">
<sup>3</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Dannberg</surname>
<given-names>Juliane</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0357-7115</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff4">
<sup>4</sup>
</xref>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff5">
<sup>5</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Gassmöller</surname>
<given-names>Rene</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7098-8198</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff4">
<sup>4</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Wellmann</surname>
<given-names>Florian</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2552-1876</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1">
<sup>1</sup>
</xref>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff6">
<sup>6</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
</contrib-group><aff id="aff1">
<label>1</label>
<addr-line>RWTH Aachen University, Institute for Computational Geoscience, Geothermics and Reservoir Geophysics, Mathieustraße 30, 52074 Aachen, Germany</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff2">
<label>2</label>
<addr-line>Institute for Applied Geosciences, TU Darmstadt, Schnittspahnstr. 9, 64287 Darmstadt, Germany</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff3">
<label>3</label>
<addr-line>GFZ Helmholtz Centre for Geosciences, 14473 Potsdam, Germany</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff4">
<label>4</label>
<addr-line>GEOMAR Helmholtz Centre for Ocean Research, Kiel, Germany</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff5">
<label>5</label>
<addr-line>Christian-Albrecht University of Kiel, Institute of Geosciences, Kiel, Germany</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff6">
<label>6</label>
<addr-line>Fraunhofer Research Institution for Energy Infrastructures and Geothermal Systems (IEG), Am Hochschulcampus 1, 44801 Bochum, Germany</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff7">
<label>7</label>
<addr-line>now at: Institute for Particle Physics and Astrophysics, ETH Zurich, Wolfgang-Pauli-Strasse 27, 8093 Zurich, Switzerland</addr-line>
</aff>
<pub-date pub-type="epub">
<day>22</day>
<month>07</month>
<year>2026</year>
</pub-date>
<volume>2026</volume>
<fpage>1</fpage>
<lpage>28</lpage>
<permissions>
<copyright-statement>Copyright: &#x000a9; 2026 Marilina Valatsou et al.</copyright-statement>
<copyright-year>2026</copyright-year>
<license license-type="open-access">
<license-p>This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License. To view a copy of this licence, visit <ext-link ext-link-type="uri"  xlink:href="https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/</ext-link></license-p>
</license>
</permissions>
<self-uri xlink:href="https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2026/egusphere-2026-4171/">This article is available from https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2026/egusphere-2026-4171/</self-uri>
<self-uri xlink:href="https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2026/egusphere-2026-4171/egusphere-2026-4171.pdf">The full text article is available as a PDF file from https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2026/egusphere-2026-4171/egusphere-2026-4171.pdf</self-uri>
<abstract>
<p>Geodynamic research revolves around understanding the Earth&apos;s subsurface, which often requires solving complex partial differential equations to produce numerical models. Using state-of-the-art solvers to tackle these high-dimensional problems can be computationally demanding, or even prohibitive. A potential solution is to use surrogate models&amp;ndash;methods that reduce the dimensionality of the problem while maintaining its general characteristics. In this work, we focus on developing reliable and efficient surrogate models via physics-based machine learning techniques for mantle convection applications, thus mitigating the computational challenges inherent in direct forward modeling of mantle convection. For this purpose, we employ the non-intrusive reduced basis method (NI-RB), which maintains the accuracy of traditional simulations while significantly reducing computational complexity. The performance of these models is compared against high-dimensional finite element mantle convection models generated from ASPECT, an open-source geodynamical simulation software. We show that the adopted approach significantly speeds up simulations of mantle temperature distribution-enabling rapid multi-query analyses such as global sensitivity studies and uncertainty quantification-while overcoming typical model reduction issues in geodynamics. The results indicate that our surrogate models not only capture the essential dynamics of mantle convection but also offer a balance of computational efficiency and quality of the model. With the potential to transform how geodynamic modeling studies are conducted, these surrogate models hold promise for a more efficient and effective exploration of Earth&apos;s subsurface processes in future studies.</p>
</abstract>
<counts><page-count count="28"/></counts>
<funding-group>
<award-group id="gs1">
<funding-source>Bundesministerium für Umwelt, Naturschutz, nukleare Sicherheit und Verbraucherschutz</funding-source>
<award-id>02E12062C</award-id>
</award-group>
<award-group id="gs2">
<funding-source>Bundesministerium für Forschung, Technologie und Raumfahrt</funding-source>
<award-id>16|S24062</award-id>
</award-group>
<award-group id="gs3">
<funding-source>National Science Foundation</funding-source>
<award-id>EAR-1925677</award-id>
<award-id>EAR-2054605</award-id>
<award-id>EAR-2149126</award-id>
</award-group>
<award-group id="gs4">
<funding-source>Helmholtz-Fonds</funding-source>
<award-id>EBP-01-08</award-id>
</award-group>
</funding-group>
</article-meta>
</front>
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