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<front>
<journal-meta>
<journal-id journal-id-type="publisher">EGUsphere</journal-id>
<journal-title-group>
<journal-title>EGUsphere</journal-title>
<abbrev-journal-title abbrev-type="publisher">EGUsphere</abbrev-journal-title>
<abbrev-journal-title abbrev-type="nlm-ta">EGUsphere</abbrev-journal-title>
</journal-title-group>
<issn pub-type="epub"></issn>
<publisher><publisher-name>Copernicus Publications</publisher-name>
<publisher-loc>Göttingen, Germany</publisher-loc>
</publisher>
</journal-meta>
<article-meta>
<article-id pub-id-type="doi">10.5194/egusphere-2026-4134</article-id>
<title-group>
<article-title>A Data-Driven Approach to Modelling a Global Distribution of Ice Nucleating Particles</article-title>
</title-group>
<contrib-group><contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Wallentin</surname>
<given-names>Gabriella</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7240-0498</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1">
<sup>1</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Böhmländer</surname>
<given-names>Alexander</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0009-0007-3485-2139</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff2">
<sup>2</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Herbert</surname>
<given-names>Ross</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2188-7136</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff3">
<sup>3</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Wex</surname>
<given-names>Heike</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2129-9323</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff4">
<sup>4</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Beall</surname>
<given-names>Charlotte M.</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff5">
<sup>5</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Bogert</surname>
<given-names>Pia</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff2">
<sup>2</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Brasseur</surname>
<given-names>Zoé</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5387-018X</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff6">
<sup>6</sup>
</xref>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff7">
<sup>7</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Chen</surname>
<given-names>Jie</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5353-1110</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff8">
<sup>8</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Creamean</surname>
<given-names>Jessie M.</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3819-5600</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff9">
<sup>9</sup>
</xref>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff10">
<sup>10</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>DeMott</surname>
<given-names>Paul J.</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3719-1889</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff9">
<sup>9</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Eckermann</surname>
<given-names>Oliver</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0009-0002-2949-2136</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff4">
<sup>4</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Gao</surname>
<given-names>Kunfeng</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9482-3857</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff8">
<sup>8</sup>
</xref>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff11">
<sup>11</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Gong</surname>
<given-names>Xianda</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7274-0639</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff12">
<sup>12</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Henning</surname>
<given-names>Silvia</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9267-7825</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff4">
<sup>4</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Hiranuma</surname>
<given-names>Naruki</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7790-4807</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff13">
<sup>13</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>McCluskey</surname>
<given-names>Christina S.</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3778-4112</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff14">
<sup>14</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Mitsios</surname>
<given-names>Christos</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff11">
<sup>11</sup>
</xref>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff15">
<sup>15</sup>
</xref>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff16">
<sup>16</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Möhler</surname>
<given-names>Ottmar</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7551-9814</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff2">
<sup>2</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Nenes</surname>
<given-names>Athanasios</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3873-9970</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff11">
<sup>11</sup>
</xref>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff15">
<sup>15</sup>
</xref>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff16">
<sup>16</sup>
</xref>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff17">
<sup>17</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Tarn</surname>
<given-names>Mark D.</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5827-4125</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff18">
<sup>18</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Tatzelt</surname>
<given-names>Christian</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff4">
<sup>4</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Tian</surname>
<given-names>Ping</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8795-5605</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff19">
<sup>19</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Tobo</surname>
<given-names>Yutaka</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0951-3315</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff20">
<sup>20</sup>
</xref>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff21">
<sup>21</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Vogel</surname>
<given-names>Franziska</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9605-5684</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff22">
<sup>22</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Welti</surname>
<given-names>André</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3549-1212</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff23">
<sup>23</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Wilbourn</surname>
<given-names>Elise</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2599-9864</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff24">
<sup>24</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Winstone</surname>
<given-names>Jennifer</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1077-4133</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1">
<sup>1</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Hoose</surname>
<given-names>Corinna</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2827-5789</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1">
<sup>1</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
</contrib-group><aff id="aff1">
<label>1</label>
<addr-line>Institute of Meteorology and Climate Research Troposphere Research (IMKTRO), Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT),  Germany</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff2">
<label>2</label>
<addr-line>Institute of Meteorology and Climate Research Atmospheric Aerosol Research (IMKAAF), Karlsruhe Institute of  Technology (KIT), Germany</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff3">
<label>3</label>
<addr-line>Institute for Climate and Atmospheric Science, University of Leeds, UK</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff4">
<label>4</label>
<addr-line>Leibniz Institute for Tropospheric Research, Leibniz Institute, Germany</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff5">
<label>5</label>
<addr-line>Renaissance Philanthropy Fund, USA</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff6">
<label>6</label>
<addr-line>Institute for Atmospheric and Earth System Research/Physics, University of Helsinki, Finland</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff7">
<label>7</label>
<addr-line>SIOS Knowledge Centre, Norway</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff8">
<label>8</label>
<addr-line>Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science, ETH Zürich, Switzerland</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff9">
<label>9</label>
<addr-line>Department of Atmospheric Science, Colorado State University, USA</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff10">
<label>10</label>
<addr-line>Department of Environmental Science, Stockholm University, Sweden</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff11">
<label>11</label>
<addr-line>Laboratory of Atmospheric Processes and Their Impacts, School of Architecture, Civil and Environmental Engineering,  École Polytechnique Fédérale de Lausanne, Switzerland</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff12">
<label>12</label>
<addr-line>Research Center for Industries of the Future, School of Engineering, Westlake University, China</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff13">
<label>13</label>
<addr-line>Physics Department, University of Texas at El Paso, USA</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff14">
<label>14</label>
<addr-line>NSF National Center for Atmospheric Research, USA</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff15">
<label>15</label>
<addr-line>Institute for Chemical Engineering Sciences, Foundation for Research and Technology, Greece</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff16">
<label>16</label>
<addr-line>Department of Chemical Engineering, University of Patras, Greece</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff17">
<label>17</label>
<addr-line>Department of Chemistry, Aarhus University, Denmark</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff18">
<label>18</label>
<addr-line>School of Earth and Environment, University of Leeds, UK</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff19">
<label>19</label>
<addr-line>Beijing Weather Modification Center, China</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff20">
<label>20</label>
<addr-line>National Institute of Polar Research, Japan</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff21">
<label>21</label>
<addr-line>Graduate Institute for Advanced Studies, SOKENDAI, Japan</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff22">
<label>22</label>
<addr-line>Institute of Atmospheric Sciences and Climate (ISAC), National Research Council (CNR), Italy</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff23">
<label>23</label>
<addr-line>Finnish Meteorological Institute, Finland</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff24">
<label>24</label>
<addr-line>West Texas A&amp;M University, USA</addr-line>
</aff>
<pub-date pub-type="epub">
<day>14</day>
<month>07</month>
<year>2026</year>
</pub-date>
<volume>2026</volume>
<fpage>1</fpage>
<lpage>27</lpage>
<permissions>
<copyright-statement>Copyright: &#x000a9; 2026 Gabriella Wallentin et al.</copyright-statement>
<copyright-year>2026</copyright-year>
<license license-type="open-access">
<license-p>This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License. To view a copy of this licence, visit <ext-link ext-link-type="uri"  xlink:href="https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/</ext-link></license-p>
</license>
</permissions>
<self-uri xlink:href="https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2026/egusphere-2026-4134/">This article is available from https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2026/egusphere-2026-4134/</self-uri>
<self-uri xlink:href="https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2026/egusphere-2026-4134/egusphere-2026-4134.pdf">The full text article is available as a PDF file from https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2026/egusphere-2026-4134/egusphere-2026-4134.pdf</self-uri>
<abstract>
<p>Ice nucleating particles (INPs) are rare aerosols essential for cloud ice formation in the mixed-phase temperature range between -38 &amp;deg;C and 0 &amp;deg;C. Due to measurement challenges and limitations in instrument capabilities, the availability of atmospheric observations of INPs remains scarce in time and space. Consequently, no observation-based global distribution of INPs exists so far. This study applies a machine learning (gradient boosting) algorithm to predict the INP concentration over the mixed-phase temperature range across the globe using aerosol mass concentration reanalysis and observed immersion-mode INPs. This proof-of-concept exercise demonstrates that even with limited measurements, the occurrence of INPs can be estimated, following the spatial pattern of key aerosol species. Point-based evaluation metrics, R&lt;sup&gt;2&lt;/sup&gt; and log-based RMSE, reach 0.83 and 0.71 for the gradient boosting model, compared to 0.75 and 0.86 for the linear regression benchmark. Regional INP spectra with temperature extracted from the machine learning model agree within one order of magnitude with observations, except over Antarctica (mean bias factor of 150). INPs in continental (oceanic) regions are well predicted within a mean bias of 2.4 (overestimated within a mean bias of 4) by the machine learning model. The prediction is driven by the strong temperature dependence followed by mid-sized dust particles. This approach can resolve a long-standing source of INP prediction uncertainty in regional weather and climate models.</p>
</abstract>
<counts><page-count count="27"/></counts>
</article-meta>
</front>
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