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<front>
<journal-meta>
<journal-id journal-id-type="publisher">EGUsphere</journal-id>
<journal-title-group>
<journal-title>EGUsphere</journal-title>
<abbrev-journal-title abbrev-type="publisher">EGUsphere</abbrev-journal-title>
<abbrev-journal-title abbrev-type="nlm-ta">EGUsphere</abbrev-journal-title>
</journal-title-group>
<issn pub-type="epub"></issn>
<publisher><publisher-name>Copernicus Publications</publisher-name>
<publisher-loc>Göttingen, Germany</publisher-loc>
</publisher>
</journal-meta>
<article-meta>
<article-id pub-id-type="doi">10.5194/egusphere-2026-4067</article-id>
<title-group>
<article-title>Hard to Beat, Not Impossible: Improving Seasonal Ensemble Streamflow Predictions (ESP) in Mountainous Catchments</article-title>
</title-group>
<contrib-group><contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Sota</surname>
<given-names>Jerónimo</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1">
<sup>1</sup>
</xref>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff2">
<sup>2</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Mendoza</surname>
<given-names>Pablo A.</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0263-9698</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1">
<sup>1</sup>
</xref>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff2">
<sup>2</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Lagos-Zúñiga</surname>
<given-names>Miguel</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff3">
<sup>3</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
</contrib-group><aff id="aff1">
<label>1</label>
<addr-line>Department of Civil Engineering, Universidad de Chile, Santiago, Chile</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff2">
<label>2</label>
<addr-line>Advanced Mining Technology Center (AMTC), Universidad de Chile, Santiago, Chile</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff3">
<label>3</label>
<addr-line>Departamento de Obras Civiles, Universidad Técnica Federico Santa María, Santiago, Chile</addr-line>
</aff>
<pub-date pub-type="epub">
<day>28</day>
<month>08</month>
<year>2026</year>
</pub-date>
<volume>2026</volume>
<fpage>1</fpage>
<lpage>41</lpage>
<permissions>
<copyright-statement>Copyright: &#x000a9; 2026 Jerónimo Sota et al.</copyright-statement>
<copyright-year>2026</copyright-year>
<license license-type="open-access">
<license-p>This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License. To view a copy of this licence, visit <ext-link ext-link-type="uri"  xlink:href="https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/</ext-link></license-p>
</license>
</permissions>
<self-uri xlink:href="https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2026/egusphere-2026-4067/">This article is available from https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2026/egusphere-2026-4067/</self-uri>
<self-uri xlink:href="https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2026/egusphere-2026-4067/egusphere-2026-4067.pdf">The full text article is available as a PDF file from https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2026/egusphere-2026-4067/egusphere-2026-4067.pdf</self-uri>
<abstract>
<p>The Ensemble Streamflow Prediction (ESP) method has been extensively applied in operational forecasting and is widely considered a robust benchmark for predicting spring&amp;ndash;summer snowmelt runoff in mountain environments. Nevertheless, it remains unclear how, when and where the implementation of data assimilation and/or post-processing techniques offer potential for improving the quality of seasonal and monthly streamflow forecasts during the snowmelt season. Here, we compare alternative ESP hindcast configurations &amp;ndash; implemented with the conceptual rainfall-runoff model HBV.IANIGLA &amp;ndash; across 21 Andean catchments spanning a pronounced hydroclimatic gradient (28&amp;ndash;37&amp;deg; S), focusing on spring-summer (i.e., September&amp;ndash;March) streamflow hindcasts produced for five initialization times over a 38-year period (September/1982&amp;ndash;March/2020). Data assimilation experiments include the ensemble Kalman Filter (EnKF) and the Sequential Importance Resampling Particle Filter (SIR-PF), and the suite of post-processing techniques includes Quantile Mapping, Linear Regression, Trace Weighting and Random Forest. For completeness, the alternative ESP configurations are also compared against a simple statistical model using initial hydrologic conditions (IHCs) &amp;ndash; computed as the sum of simulated soil and snow water storages &amp;ndash; as the only predictand. Results show that, at the seasonal scale, the advantage of SIR-PF over EnKF becomes evident only for hindcasts initialized on August 1 or later, while post-processing can substantially degrade skill at lead times of two months or longer. However, combining data assimilation and post-processing for September 1 initializations improves skill and reliability of raw ESP monthly hindcasts, particularly at the beginning and end of the snowmelt season. The simple IHC-based statistical method also improves reliability at both seasonal and monthly scales, despite mixed results for other metrics. Finally, catchment attributes help explain where improvements are most likely: seasonal gains are favored in semi-arid basins with lower precipitation and runoff, higher aridity, and poorer hydrologic model performance, whereas monthly gains show distinct geographic and hydroclimatic patterns.</p>
</abstract>
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