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<front>
<journal-meta>
<journal-id journal-id-type="publisher">EGUsphere</journal-id>
<journal-title-group>
<journal-title>EGUsphere</journal-title>
<abbrev-journal-title abbrev-type="publisher">EGUsphere</abbrev-journal-title>
<abbrev-journal-title abbrev-type="nlm-ta">EGUsphere</abbrev-journal-title>
</journal-title-group>
<issn pub-type="epub"></issn>
<publisher><publisher-name>Copernicus Publications</publisher-name>
<publisher-loc>Göttingen, Germany</publisher-loc>
</publisher>
</journal-meta>
<article-meta>
<article-id pub-id-type="doi">10.5194/egusphere-2026-4053</article-id>
<title-group>
<article-title>From climatology to hazard: environmental regimes and tornado wind-speed exceedance in peninsular Spain and the Balearic Islands</article-title>
</title-group>
<contrib-group><contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Agurto Barragán</surname>
<given-names>Gonzalo</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0009-0009-6321-5723</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1">
<sup>1</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Aroba Páez</surname>
<given-names>Javier</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff2">
<sup>2</sup>
</xref>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff3">
<sup>3</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Gutiérrez-Álvarez</surname>
<given-names>Isidoro</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9078-3007</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1">
<sup>1</sup>
</xref>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff4">
<sup>4</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Gutiérrez de San Miguel Herrera</surname>
<given-names>Enrique</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0596-6766</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1">
<sup>1</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
</contrib-group><aff id="aff1">
<label>1</label>
<addr-line>Radiation and Environmental Physics Group (FRYMA), Research Centre on Natural Resources, Health and the Environment (RENSMA), University of Huelva, 21007, Huelva, Spain</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff2">
<label>2</label>
<addr-line>Department of Information Technologies, University of Huelva, 21007, Huelva, Spain</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff3">
<label>3</label>
<addr-line>Center for Advanced Studies in Physics, Mathematics and Computing (CEAFMC), University of Huelva, 21007, Huelva, Spain</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff4">
<label>4</label>
<addr-line>Platform for Computational Medicine, Andalusian Public Foundation, Progress and Health-FPS, 41092, Seville, Spain</addr-line>
</aff>
<pub-date pub-type="epub">
<day>21</day>
<month>07</month>
<year>2026</year>
</pub-date>
<volume>2026</volume>
<fpage>1</fpage>
<lpage>28</lpage>
<permissions>
<copyright-statement>Copyright: &#x000a9; 2026 Gonzalo Agurto Barragán et al.</copyright-statement>
<copyright-year>2026</copyright-year>
<license license-type="open-access">
<license-p>This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License. To view a copy of this licence, visit <ext-link ext-link-type="uri"  xlink:href="https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/</ext-link></license-p>
</license>
</permissions>
<self-uri xlink:href="https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2026/egusphere-2026-4053/">This article is available from https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2026/egusphere-2026-4053/</self-uri>
<self-uri xlink:href="https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2026/egusphere-2026-4053/egusphere-2026-4053.pdf">The full text article is available as a PDF file from https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2026/egusphere-2026-4053/egusphere-2026-4053.pdf</self-uri>
<abstract>
<p>Tornadoes and waterspouts are infrequent but locally damaging hazards in the Iberian&amp;ndash;Mediterranean region, where uneven reporting and intensity uncertainty hamper their assessment. We compiled an updated 1992&amp;ndash;2025 catalogue for peninsular Spain and the Balearic Islands by merging the national meteorological agency&apos;s tornado records with a pan-European severe-weather database, harmonising event times to UTC and removing duplicates, which yielded 1185 events: 567 tornadoes and 618 waterspouts. The record is temporally heterogeneous, with a late-summer to autumn maximum and a marked diurnal split between morning waterspouts and late-afternoon tornadoes; its rising counts appear to track reporting practices rather than any climatic trend. Using 54 pre-event atmospheric-reanalysis (ERA5) parameters, we tested a six-region geographical framework that proved only partially separable, so a simpler structure emerged: Ward clustering of 50 km hexagonal cells resolves three broad regimes &amp;mdash; shear-dominated in the west and southwest, thermodynamically charged in the central-southeast, and weakly forced in the north and east. Adapting a footprint-based occurrence-to-exceedance model, we derived the first regime-dependent wind-speed exceedance estimates for the region. Notably, the least active regime holds four of the five Enhanced Fujita Scale 3 (EF3) tornadoes and dominates exceedance at 180 and 220 km h⁻&amp;sup1;, so where tornadoes are most frequent is not where the strongest winds are most likely. These results provide a first catalogue-based baseline for regime-dependent tornado and waterspout hazard assessment in peninsular Spain and the Balearic Islands.</p>
</abstract>
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<funding-group>
<award-group id="gs1">
<funding-source>Consejo de Seguridad Nuclear</funding-source>
<award-id>SUBV-4/2022</award-id>
</award-group>
</funding-group>
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