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<front>
<journal-meta>
<journal-id journal-id-type="publisher">EGUsphere</journal-id>
<journal-title-group>
<journal-title>EGUsphere</journal-title>
<abbrev-journal-title abbrev-type="publisher">EGUsphere</abbrev-journal-title>
<abbrev-journal-title abbrev-type="nlm-ta">EGUsphere</abbrev-journal-title>
</journal-title-group>
<issn pub-type="epub"></issn>
<publisher><publisher-name>Copernicus Publications</publisher-name>
<publisher-loc>Göttingen, Germany</publisher-loc>
</publisher>
</journal-meta>
<article-meta>
<article-id pub-id-type="doi">10.5194/egusphere-2026-4022</article-id>
<title-group>
<article-title>Long-term evolution of stratospheric water vapor from the Hunga eruption</article-title>
</title-group>
<contrib-group><contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Dubé</surname>
<given-names>Kimberlee</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6103-5918</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1">
<sup>1</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Randel</surname>
<given-names>William</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5999-7162</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff2">
<sup>2</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Bourassa</surname>
<given-names>Adam</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1">
<sup>1</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Tegtmeier</surname>
<given-names>Susann</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9206-3161</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1">
<sup>1</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Wang</surname>
<given-names>Xinyue</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1848-1933</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff3">
<sup>3</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Zhang</surname>
<given-names>Jun</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2020-9322</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff2">
<sup>2</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Hlady</surname>
<given-names>Eilidh</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1">
<sup>1</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Brehon</surname>
<given-names>Meghan</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0009-0009-0414-3758</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1">
<sup>1</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Khaykin</surname>
<given-names>Sergey</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5466-1096</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff4">
<sup>4</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Degenstein</surname>
<given-names>Douglas</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1">
<sup>1</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
</contrib-group><aff id="aff1">
<label>1</label>
<addr-line>Institute of Space and Atmospheric Studies, University of Saskatchewan, Saskatoon, SK, Canada</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff2">
<label>2</label>
<addr-line>NSF National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO, USA</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff3">
<label>3</label>
<addr-line>Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, University of Colorado Boulder, Boulder, CO, USA</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff4">
<label>4</label>
<addr-line>Laboratoire Atmosphère Observations Spatiales, UVSQ, CNRS, Sorbonne Université, Guyancourt, France</addr-line>
</aff>
<pub-date pub-type="epub">
<day>06</day>
<month>08</month>
<year>2026</year>
</pub-date>
<volume>2026</volume>
<fpage>1</fpage>
<lpage>28</lpage>
<permissions>
<copyright-statement>Copyright: &#x000a9; 2026 Kimberlee Dubé et al.</copyright-statement>
<copyright-year>2026</copyright-year>
<license license-type="open-access">
<license-p>This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License. To view a copy of this licence, visit <ext-link ext-link-type="uri"  xlink:href="https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/</ext-link></license-p>
</license>
</permissions>
<self-uri xlink:href="https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2026/egusphere-2026-4022/">This article is available from https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2026/egusphere-2026-4022/</self-uri>
<self-uri xlink:href="https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2026/egusphere-2026-4022/egusphere-2026-4022.pdf">The full text article is available as a PDF file from https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2026/egusphere-2026-4022/egusphere-2026-4022.pdf</self-uri>
<abstract>
<p>The Hunga underwater volcanic eruption in January 2022 injected 150 Tg of water vapour (H&lt;sub&gt;2&lt;/sub&gt;O) into the stratosphere, increasing the total stratospheric H&lt;sub&gt;2&lt;/sub&gt;O mass by 10 %. This study investigates the transport of the Hunga H&lt;sub&gt;2&lt;/sub&gt;O within, and out of, the stratosphere from 2022&amp;ndash;2025, using H&lt;sub&gt;2&lt;/sub&gt;O observations from the Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS) and the Atmospheric Chemistry Experiment &amp;ndash; Fourier Transform Spectrometer (ACE-FTS), along with model simulations from the Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model (WACCM) and the FLEXible PARTicle dispersion model (FLEXPART). The Hunga H&lt;sub&gt;2&lt;/sub&gt;O is isolated by using the tropical cold point temperature to account for H&lt;sub&gt;2&lt;/sub&gt;O that entered the stratosphere through the tropical tropopause, rather than via the eruption. The resulting residuals show the detailed evolution of the Hunga H&lt;sub&gt;2&lt;/sub&gt;O over time while it moves to higher latitudes and lower altitudes. Including the lower stratosphere, approximately two-thirds of the Hunga H&lt;sub&gt;2&lt;/sub&gt;O remains in the stratosphere in late 2025. There is good agreement between the observed and modelled H&lt;sub&gt;2&lt;/sub&gt;O above 20 km. However, in the lower stratosphere observations show substantially more H&lt;sub&gt;2&lt;/sub&gt;O compared to the model during 2024 and 2025, suggesting that the modelled transport across the lower stratosphere is too fast. Observations show excess H&lt;sub&gt;2&lt;/sub&gt;O in the tropics in 2023 and 2024, suggesting evidence of recirculation from SH mid-latitudes back to the tropics. This mixing signature is found in WACCM simulations and confirmed in FLEXPART transport calculations. Including the lower stratosphere in the calculation increases the decay time scale of the Hunga stratospheric water vapor by 1&amp;ndash;2 years.</p>
</abstract>
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