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<front>
<journal-meta>
<journal-id journal-id-type="publisher">EGUsphere</journal-id>
<journal-title-group>
<journal-title>EGUsphere</journal-title>
<abbrev-journal-title abbrev-type="publisher">EGUsphere</abbrev-journal-title>
<abbrev-journal-title abbrev-type="nlm-ta">EGUsphere</abbrev-journal-title>
</journal-title-group>
<publisher><publisher-name>Copernicus Publications</publisher-name>
<publisher-loc>Göttingen, Germany</publisher-loc>
</publisher>
</journal-meta>
<article-meta>
<article-id pub-id-type="doi">10.5194/egusphere-2026-3880</article-id>
<title-group>
<article-title>Calibration Is Not Enough: TAP-Bathy v1.0, a Three-Axis Protocol for Evaluating Spatial Uncertainty in Bathymetry</article-title>
</title-group>
<contrib-group><contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Cui</surname>
<given-names>Xinye</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1">
<sup>1</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Li</surname>
<given-names>Houpu</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1">
<sup>1</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Xiong</surname>
<given-names>Xin</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1">
<sup>1</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Bian</surname>
<given-names>Shaofeng</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1">
<sup>1</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Zhai</surname>
<given-names>Guojun</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff2">
<sup>2</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
</contrib-group><aff id="aff1">
<label>1</label>
<addr-line>Naval University of Engineering, Wuhan 430033, China</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff2">
<label>2</label>
<addr-line>Key Laboratory of Geological Survey and Evaluation (Ministry of Education), China University of Geosciences, Wuhan 430074, China</addr-line>
</aff>
<pub-date pub-type="epub">
<day>30</day>
<month>10</month>
<year>2026</year>
</pub-date>
<volume>2026</volume>
<fpage>1</fpage>
<lpage>34</lpage>
<permissions>
<copyright-statement>Copyright: &#x000a9; 2026 Xinye Cui et al.</copyright-statement>
<copyright-year>2026</copyright-year>
<license license-type="open-access">
<license-p>This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License. To view a copy of this licence, visit <ext-link ext-link-type="uri"  xlink:href="https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/</ext-link></license-p>
</license>
</permissions>
<self-uri xlink:href="https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2026/egusphere-2026-3880/">This article is available from https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2026/egusphere-2026-3880/</self-uri>
<self-uri xlink:href="https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2026/egusphere-2026-3880/egusphere-2026-3880.pdf">The full text article is available as a PDF file from https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2026/egusphere-2026-3880/egusphere-2026-3880.pdf</self-uri>
<abstract>
<p>Calibration is the standard yardstick for spatial uncertainty quantification (UQ), but it is insufficient. On the Amazon Fan, ordinary-kriging variance achieves excellent calibration (ECE = 4.1%) yet carries negligible spatial information(&lt;em&gt;r&lt;/em&gt;&lt;sub&gt;pooled&lt;/sub&gt; = +0.16). On the Blake Escarpment, kriging variance yields below-random block prioritization under the locked evaluation protocol. Motivated by this disconnect, we propose a three-axis protocol for evaluating spatial UQ: calibration, an exact within/cross-patch decomposition of the error&amp;ndash;uncertainty correlation, and operational prioritization at a fixed resurvey budget. Applying the protocol to deep-sea bathymetric reconstruction across three terrains reveals three failure modes that any single axis misses &amp;ndash; calibrated-but-uninformative uncertainty, statistically significant but operationally negligible withinpatch signals, and cross-region ranking reversal via Simpson&amp;rsquo;s paradox. Learned &amp;sigma; carries reliable cross-patch information(&lt;em&gt;r&lt;/em&gt;&lt;sub&gt;cross&lt;/sub&gt; = 0.08&amp;ndash;0.50, locked evaluation protocol; confidence intervals at patch level) and concentrates 1.5&amp;ndash;3&amp;times; the random errorat 10% block-level resurvey budgets and remains above-random at 25%. A deep ensemble produces a near-identical primary endpoint, with the broad failure-mode pattern robust to the epistemic-uncertainty estimator, though secondary operational capture is unstable on the small Region 009 evaluation set. A pre-registered prospective test on an unseen fan/plain region yielded &lt;em&gt;r&lt;/em&gt;&lt;sub&gt;cross&lt;/sub&gt; = 0.358 inside the predicted interval, consistent with retained cross-patch informativeness on new terrain. An eight-region prospective test cleanly falsified the strong (sign-reversal) form of a terrain-coupling prediction. The contribution is a reproducible, scale-aware evaluation protocol: we show &lt;em&gt;how&lt;/em&gt; to assess spatial UQ, not that one estimator universally wins.</p>
</abstract>
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