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<front>
<journal-meta>
<journal-id journal-id-type="publisher">EGUsphere</journal-id>
<journal-title-group>
<journal-title>EGUsphere</journal-title>
<abbrev-journal-title abbrev-type="publisher">EGUsphere</abbrev-journal-title>
<abbrev-journal-title abbrev-type="nlm-ta">EGUsphere</abbrev-journal-title>
</journal-title-group>
<issn pub-type="epub"></issn>
<publisher><publisher-name>Copernicus Publications</publisher-name>
<publisher-loc>Göttingen, Germany</publisher-loc>
</publisher>
</journal-meta>
<article-meta>
<article-id pub-id-type="doi">10.5194/egusphere-2026-3872</article-id>
<title-group>
<article-title>ESD Ideas: A &quot;Butterfly&quot; on Orbital Timescales: Weak Millennial Forcing or &amp;ldquo;Brief&amp;rdquo; Human Impact May Dramatically Change the Rhythmicity of the Long-Memory Ice-Climate System</article-title>
</title-group>
<contrib-group><contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Verbitsky</surname>
<given-names>Mikhail</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2423-0284</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1">
<sup>1</sup>
</xref>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff2">
<sup>2</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
</contrib-group><aff id="aff1">
<label>1</label>
<addr-line>Gen5 Group, LLC, Newton, MA, USA</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff2">
<label>2</label>
<addr-line>UCLouvain, Earth and Life Institute, Louvain-la-Neuve, Belgium</addr-line>
</aff>
<pub-date pub-type="epub">
<day>10</day>
<month>07</month>
<year>2026</year>
</pub-date>
<volume>2026</volume>
<fpage>1</fpage>
<lpage>4</lpage>
<permissions>
<copyright-statement>Copyright: &#x000a9; 2026 Mikhail Verbitsky</copyright-statement>
<copyright-year>2026</copyright-year>
<license license-type="open-access">
<license-p>This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License. To view a copy of this licence, visit <ext-link ext-link-type="uri"  xlink:href="https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/</ext-link></license-p>
</license>
</permissions>
<self-uri xlink:href="https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2026/egusphere-2026-3872/">This article is available from https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2026/egusphere-2026-3872/</self-uri>
<self-uri xlink:href="https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2026/egusphere-2026-3872/egusphere-2026-3872.pdf">The full text article is available as a PDF file from https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2026/egusphere-2026-3872/egusphere-2026-3872.pdf</self-uri>
<abstract>
<p>We demonstrate that (a) the patterns of the Pleistocene climate history as different as classic reconstructions of Lisiecki and Raymo (2005) and the new one of Clark et al (2025) may both be produced by the same long-memory ice-climate system under different initial conditions or under slightly different millennial forcing, and (b) even single &amp;ldquo;brief&amp;rdquo; (on orbital timescales, i.e., a few hundred years) pulse-perturbation of the forcing, consistent with a possible human impact, may fundamentally change the dynamics of the global ice-climate system for hundreds of thousands years, making the time series we have not observed in the past.</p>
</abstract>
<counts><page-count count="4"/></counts>
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</front>
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