﻿FN Clarivate Analytics Web of Science
VR 1.0
PT J
AU Oostdijk, M
   Elsler, LG
   Van Deelen, J
   Auping, WL
   Kwakkel, J
   Schadeberg, A
   Vastenhoud, BMJ
   Nedelciu, CE
   Berzaghi, F
   Prellezo, R
   Wisz, MS
AF Oostdijk, Maartje
   Elsler, Laura G.
   Van Deelen, Julie
   Auping, Willem L.
   Kwakkel, Jan
   Schadeberg, Amanda
   Vastenhoud, Berthe M. J.
   Nedelciu, Claudiu Eduard
   Berzaghi, Fabio
   Prellezo, Raul
   Wisz, Mary S.
TI Modeling fisheries and carbon sequestration ecosystem services under
   deep uncertainty in the ocean twilight zone
SO AMBIO
LA English
DT Article
DE Blue carbon; Carbon sequestration; Deep uncertainty; Mesopelagic
   fishery; Social-ecological modeling
ID MESOPELAGIC FISHES; SCENARIO DISCOVERY; MANAGEMENT; IMPACTS; SYSTEM;
   DYNAMICS; ECOLOGY; DRIVE
AB Mesopelagic fishes are a vital component of the biological carbon pump and are, to date, largely unexploited. In recent years, there has been an increased interest in harvesting the mesopelagic zone to produce fish feed for aquaculture. However, great uncertainties exist in how the mesopelagic zone interacts with the climate and food webs, presenting a dilemma for policy. Here, we investigate the consequences of potential policies relating to mesopelagic harvest quotas with a dynamic social-ecological modeling approach, combining system dynamics and global sensitivity analyses informed by participatory modeling. Our analyses reveal that, in simulations of mesopelagic fishing scenarios, uncertainties about mesopelagic fish population dynamics have the most pronounced influence on potential outcomes. The analysis also shows that prioritizing the development of the fishing industry over environmental protection would lead to a significantly higher social cost of climate change to society. Given the large uncertainties and the potential large impacts on oceanic carbon sequestration, a precautionary approach to developing mesopelagic fisheries is warranted.
C1 [Oostdijk, Maartje] Agr Univ Iceland, Fac Agr Sci, Keldnaholt,Arleynir 22, IS-112 Reykjavik, Iceland.
   [Berzaghi, Fabio] World Maritime Univ, Ocean Sustainabil Governance & Management, Fiskehamnsgatan 1, S-21118 Malmo, Sweden.
   [Wisz, Mary S.] Univ Iceland, Sci Inst, Saemundargata 2, IS-101 Reykjavik, Iceland.
   [Elsler, Laura G.] Harvard TH Chan Sch Publ Hlth, Boston, MA 02115 USA.
   [Van Deelen, Julie; Auping, Willem L.; Kwakkel, Jan] Delft Univ Technol, Fac Technol Policy & Management, Dept Multiactor Syst, Policy Anal Sect, Jaffalaan 5, NL-2628 BX Delft, Netherlands.
   [Schadeberg, Amanda] Wageningen Univ, Environm Econ & Nat Resources Grp, Hollandseweg 1, NL-6706 KN Wageningen, Netherlands.
   [Schadeberg, Amanda] Wageningen Univ, Environm Policy Grp, Hollandseweg 1, NL-6706 KN Wageningen, Netherlands.
   [Vastenhoud, Berthe M. J.] Tech Univ Denmark, Natl Inst Aquat Resources, Kemitorvet 201, DK-2800 Lyngby, Denmark.
   [Nedelciu, Claudiu Eduard] Univ Bergen, Dept Geog, Syst Dynam Grp, Fosswinckelsgate 6, N-5007 Bergen, Norway.
   [Prellezo, Raul] AZTI Marine Res Unit Txatxarramendi Ugartea Z G, Sukarrieta 48395, Spain.
C3 University of Iceland; Harvard University; Harvard T.H. Chan School of
   Public Health; Delft University of Technology; Wageningen University &
   Research; Wageningen University & Research; Technical University of
   Denmark; University of Bergen
RP Oostdijk, M (corresponding author), Agr Univ Iceland, Fac Agr Sci, Keldnaholt,Arleynir 22, IS-112 Reykjavik, Iceland.; Auping, WL (corresponding author), Delft Univ Technol, Fac Technol Policy & Management, Dept Multiactor Syst, Policy Anal Sect, Jaffalaan 5, NL-2628 BX Delft, Netherlands.
EM maartjeoostdijk@gmail.com; l.elsler@outlook.com;
   vandeelen.julie@technopolis-group.com; W.L.Auping@tudelft.nl;
   j.h.kwakkel@tudelft.nl; amanda.schadeberg@wur.nl; bmjv@aqua.dtu.dk;
   Claudiu.Nedelciu@uib.no; fab@wmu.se; rprellezo@azti.es; msw@wmu.se
RI Kwakkel, Jan/D-9680-2013; Auping, Willem/ABE-5689-2021; Schadeberg,
   Amanda/PIF-8024-2026; Wisz, Mary/J-7826-2013; Prellezo, Raul/B-8231-2009
OI Auping, Willem/0000-0003-1898-643X; Schadeberg,
   Amanda/0000-0003-4758-7331; Vastenhoud, Berthe Maria
   Johanna/0000-0002-1729-5998; 
FU Horizon 2020 Framework Programme [2019-2023, 817669]; Horizon 2020
   project MEESO Ecologically and Economically Sustainable Mesopelagic
   Fisheries [817806]; European Union's Horizon 2020 research and
   innovation program; H2020 Societal Challenges Programme [817806] Funding
   Source: H2020 Societal Challenges Programme
FX This work is delivered as part of the Horizon 2020 project MEESO
   Ecologically and Economically Sustainable Mesopelagic Fisheries
   (2019-2023), Grant Agreement No. 817669. RP acknowledges funding from
   the European Union's Horizon 2020 research and innovation program under
   Grant Agreements No. 817806 (SUMMER). We thank the stakeholders for
   participating in our interview campaign and the workshop. We also thank
   Marloes Kraan for her leading role in organizing the two stakeholder
   workshops and Rolf Groeneveld for supporting the organization of the
   stakeholder workshops, and comments on the paper. We also thank two
   anonymous reviewers for their constructive comments.
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NR 91
TC 14
Z9 15
U1 0
U2 12
PU SPRINGER
PI DORDRECHT
PA VAN GODEWIJCKSTRAAT 30, 3311 GZ DORDRECHT, NETHERLANDS
SN 0044-7447
EI 1654-7209
J9 AMBIO
JI Ambio
PD NOV
PY 2024
VL 53
IS 11
BP 1632
EP 1648
DI 10.1007/s13280-024-02044-1
EA AUG 2024
PG 17
WC Engineering, Environmental; Environmental Sciences
WE Science Citation Index Expanded (SCI-EXPANDED)
SC Engineering; Environmental Sciences & Ecology
GA H2Q9A
UT WOS:001302296100002
PM 39207669
OA Green Submitted, hybrid
DA 2026-06-14
ER

PT J
AU Quang, RGT
   Kourantidou, M
   Jin, D
AF Quang, Rohan Gowda Thanh
   Kourantidou, Melina
   Jin, Di
TI Assessing the potential economic effects of mesopelagic fisheries as a
   novel source of fishmeal
SO NATURAL RESOURCE MODELING
LA English
DT Article
DE aquaculture; fishmeal; forage fisheries; markets; mesopelagic;
   profitability
ID CARBON
AB The continuous growth of the aquaculture industry implies increased demand for efficient sources of aquafeed, such as fishmeal. Pelagic fish are a desirable source of fishmeal due to their high nutritional content. Nevertheless, several pelagic stocks that have been exploited extensively for fishmeal production face ecological limits due to commercial exploitation, and the aquaculture industry is now seeking novel, efficient, and sustainable sources of aquafeed. The mesopelagic zone, an ecosystem with many scientific uncertainties, is being considered as a potential source for fishmeal, largely owing to the abundance of mesopelagic fish and their robust nutritional profile. However, both the ecological and economic viability of commercial exploitation of mesopelagic fish are not yet well understood. To understand the conditions that would make such an endeavor economically viable in the context of global fishmeal production systems, we use a bioeconomic model that assesses the economic consequences of including mesopelagic fish as a fishmeal source. Through simulations, we assess the economic implications of this hypothetical mesopelagic fishery on major pelagic fishmeal production systems. The mesopelagic fishery can be economically profitable for harvesters, and its addition to global fishmeal production reduces fishmeal market price, thus making it more accessible to aquaculture farmers and less profitable for pelagic fishers. While this may reduce fishing pressure on pelagic forage-fish stocks, the implications of commercial exploitation of mesopelagic on key ecosystem services remain a concern.
   The continuous growth of the aquaculture industry implies increased demand for efficient sources of aquafeed, such as fishmeal. Several pelagic stocks that have been exploited extensively for fishmeal production face ecological limits due to commercial exploitation, and the aquaculture industry is now seeking novel, efficient, and sustainable sources of aquafeed. The mesopelagic zone is being considered as a potential source for fishmeal. However, both the ecological and economic viability of commercial exploitation of mesopelagic fish are not yet well understood. We use a bioeconomic model to assess the economic consequences of including mesopelagic fish as a fishmeal source and the economic implications of this hypothetical fishery on major pelagic fishmeal production systems. The results show that mesopelagic fishery could be profitable for harvesters, and its addition to global fishmeal production would reduce fishmeal market price, thus making it more accessible to aquaculture farmers and less profitable for pelagic fishers.
C1 [Quang, Rohan Gowda Thanh] Pomona Coll, Biol Dept, Claremont, CA USA.
   [Kourantidou, Melina; Jin, Di] Woods Hole Oceanog Inst, Marine Policy Ctr, Woods Hole, MA USA.
   [Kourantidou, Melina] Univ Southern Denmark, Dept Sociol Environm & Business Econ, Esbjerg, Denmark.
   [Kourantidou, Melina] Univ Bretagne Occidentale, AMURE, Plouzane, France.
   [Jin, Di] Woods Hole Oceanog Inst, Marine Policy Ctr, Falmouth, MA 02543 USA.
C3 Claremont Colleges; Pomona College; Woods Hole Oceanographic
   Institution; University of Southern Denmark; Universite de Bretagne
   Occidentale; Ifremer; Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution
RP Jin, D (corresponding author), Woods Hole Oceanog Inst, Marine Policy Ctr, Falmouth, MA 02543 USA.
EM djin@whoi.edu
RI ; Jin, Di/KHX-5887-2024
OI Kourantidou, Melina/0000-0001-9595-3354; Jin, Di/0000-0002-6403-7983
FU WHOI's Ocean Twilight Zone program which is part of the Audacious
   Project, a collaborative endeavor, housed at TED; WHOI Summer Student
   Fellowship program
FX This study is supported by WHOI's Ocean Twilight Zone program which is
   part of the Audacious Project, a collaborative endeavor, housed at TED.
   Rohan Gowda Thanh Quang would like to thank the WHOI Summer Student
   Fellowship program for support. We also wish to thank the two anonymous
   reviewers for their constructive comments.
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NR 45
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PU WILEY
PI HOBOKEN
PA 111 RIVER ST, HOBOKEN 07030-5774, NJ USA
SN 0890-8575
EI 1939-7445
J9 NAT RESOUR MODEL
JI Nat. Resour. Model.
PD AUG
PY 2024
VL 37
IS 3
DI 10.1111/nrm.12398
EA APR 2024
PG 19
WC Environmental Sciences; Mathematics, Interdisciplinary Applications
WE Science Citation Index Expanded (SCI-EXPANDED)
SC Environmental Sciences & Ecology; Mathematics
GA C4T9Y
UT WOS:001208136700001
OA Green Submitted, gold
DA 2026-06-14
ER

PT J
AU Buendia-Hernandez, FA
   Alvarez-Garcia, FJ
   OrtizBevia, MJ
   RuizdeElvira, A
AF Buendia-Hernandez, Francisco A.
   Alvarez-Garcia, Francisco J.
   OrtizBevia, Maria J.
   RuizdeElvira, Antonio
TI Dynamic modeling of air traffic emissions with a two variable system
SO INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF SUSTAINABLE TRANSPORTATION
LA English
DT Article
DE Air traffic emissions; emissions stabilization; environmental policies;
   feedbacks; two variable model
ID CLIMATE-CHANGE; AVIATION EMISSIONS; CARBON EMISSIONS; CO2 EMISSIONS;
   TRANSPORT; IMPACTS; ATTITUDES
AB Greenhouse gases emissions modify the radiative balance of the Earth, causing changes in its climate. Climate Change is considered one of the greatest threats to economic and social stability. Aviation is responsible for around a 2.5% of greenhouse gases emissions. This contribution is steadily increasing, thus the interest of assessing the impacts that different policies might have on it. The simple feedback model proposed here was intended as a tool in order to investigate the stabilization issue. The model was based on the relationship between the number of air traffic passengers and the associated CO2 emissions. It incorporated a representation of the feedback of the technological innovation on the emissions rate and of those of the socioeconomic response to the climatic impact on the passengers number. The model parameters were estimated using data from a variety of robust air traffic sources. However, it was found that neither of the feedback terms succeeded at stabilizing the emissions, although they might slow down their growth. In addition, there is also a nonlinear version of the model that includes a representation of the passengers perception of insecurity, similar to the one experienced in the current pandemic. This model favors the stability of both, the number of passengers and CO2 emissions, as it would also be able to control unprecedented situations.
C1 [Buendia-Hernandez, Francisco A.; Alvarez-Garcia, Francisco J.; OrtizBevia, Maria J.; RuizdeElvira, Antonio] Univ Alcala, Dept Fis & Matemat, Madrid 28801, Spain.
C3 Universidad de Alcala
RP OrtizBevia, MJ (corresponding author), Univ Alcala, Dept Fis & Matemat, Madrid 28801, Spain.
EM mjose.ortiz@uah.es
RI ; BUENDIA, FRANCISCO/PDW-2615-2025
OI Ruiz de Elvira, Antonio/0000-0001-9067-0865; OrtizBevia, Maria
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NR 43
TC 6
Z9 6
U1 0
U2 8
PU TAYLOR & FRANCIS INC
PI PHILADELPHIA
PA 530 WALNUT STREET, STE 850, PHILADELPHIA, PA 19106 USA
SN 1556-8318
EI 1556-8334
J9 INT J SUSTAIN TRANSP
JI Int. J. Sustain. Transp.
PD NOV 3
PY 2021
VL 16
IS 11
BP 1003
EP 1012
DI 10.1080/15568318.2021.1959683
EA JUL 2021
PG 10
WC Green & Sustainable Science & Technology; Environmental Studies;
   Transportation
WE Social Science Citation Index (SSCI)
SC Science & Technology - Other Topics; Environmental Sciences & Ecology;
   Transportation
GA 5X1SQ
UT WOS:000686415600001
DA 2026-06-14
ER

PT J
AU Nguyen, RT
   Eggert, RG
   Severson, MH
   Anderson, CG
AF Nguyen, Ruby T.
   Eggert, Roderick G.
   Severson, Mike H.
   Anderson, Corby G.
TI Global Electrification of Vehicles and Intertwined Material Supply
   Chains of Cobalt, Copper and Nickel
SO RESOURCES CONSERVATION AND RECYCLING
LA English
DT Article
ID FUTURE; FLOWS; BATTERIES; TRACKING
AB Electric vehicles (EVs) will be an important part of a low-carbon economy. Future EV adoption depends on overcoming multiple barriers, including charging infrastructure, sufficient electricity generation, and the availability of battery raw materials at acceptable costs, including cobalt, copper and nickel - which typically are co-produced. Various EV projections have been made, along with associated requirements for battery raw materials (demand). There have been separate assessments of the availability of raw materials (supply). However, integrated assessments of supply and demand and their interaction over time are lacking to support decision-making. Using a dynamic market model that reflects the co-produced nature of cobalt, copper and nickel production as well as recycling, we estimate global output of these three metals under different EV growth scenarios from 2020 to 2040. Results suggest that starting in 2025, replacement demand for battery raw materials becomes important. Thus, estimates for future material demand that consider only demands from new EVs are incomplete and misleading. EV deployment and associated increased demand for raw materials will have a greater impact on prices for cobalt than nickel and, in turn, for nickel than copper. High EV deployment scenarios will be difficult to achieve without larger supplies of copper, nickel and cobalt than forthcoming under the conditions modeled here, which anticipates a six-year time lag between a demand increase and the expansion of metal-production capacity. Shortening battery lifetimes and improving collection and recycling rates increase secondary supply, but the extent to which these factors support additional EV deployment is mixed.
C1 [Nguyen, Ruby T.; Severson, Mike H.] Idaho Natl Lab, Idaho Falls, ID 83402 USA.
   [Eggert, Roderick G.; Anderson, Corby G.] Colorado Sch Mines, Golden, CO 80401 USA.
C3 United States Department of Energy (DOE); Idaho National Laboratory;
   Colorado School of Mines
RP Nguyen, RT (corresponding author), Idaho Natl Lab, Idaho Falls, ID 83402 USA.
EM ruby.nguyen@inl.gov
RI ; Nguyen, Ruby/O-5931-2019
OI Severson, Mike/0000-0002-3895-7698; Nguyen, Ruby/0000-0002-5791-5004
FU Critical Materials Institute, an Energy Innovation Hub - U.S. Department
   of Energy, Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy, Advanced
   Manufacturing Office [AL-12-350-001]; U.S. Department of Energy
   [DE-AC07-05ID14517]
FX This work is supported by the Critical Materials Institute, an Energy
   Innovation Hub funded by the U.S. Department of Energy, Office of Energy
   Efficiency and Renewable Energy, Advanced Manufacturing Office under
   Grant AL-12-350-001. (c) This manuscript has been authored by Battelle
   Energy Alliance, LLC under Contract No. DE-AC07-05ID14517 with the U.S.
   Department of Energy. The United States Government retains and the
   publisher, by accepting the article for publication, acknowledges that
   the United States Government retains a nonexclusive, paid-up,
   irrevocable, world-wide license to publish or reproduce the published
   form of this manuscript, or allow others to do so, for United States
   Government purposes.
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NR 55
TC 87
Z9 99
U1 4
U2 90
PU ELSEVIER
PI AMSTERDAM
PA RADARWEG 29, 1043 NX AMSTERDAM, NETHERLANDS
SN 0921-3449
EI 1879-0658
J9 RESOUR CONSERV RECY
JI Resour. Conserv. Recycl.
PD APR
PY 2021
VL 167
AR 105198
DI 10.1016/j.resconrec.2020.105198
EA FEB 2021
PG 11
WC Engineering, Environmental; Environmental Sciences
WE Science Citation Index Expanded (SCI-EXPANDED)
SC Engineering; Environmental Sciences & Ecology
GA SE4CF
UT WOS:000652020200001
OA Green Submitted
DA 2026-06-14
ER

PT J
AU Vidal, O
   Rostom, FZ
   François, C
   Giraud, G
AF Vidal, Olivier
   Rostom, Fatma Zahra
   Francois, Cyril
   Giraud, Gael
TI Prey-Predator Long-Term Modeling of Copper Reserves, Production,
   Recycling, Price, and Cost of Production
SO ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCE & TECHNOLOGY
LA English
DT Article
ID NATURAL-RESOURCES; DYNAMIC-ANALYSIS; GLOBAL TRENDS; SCARCITY; DEMAND;
   STOCKS; AVAILABILITY; INDICATORS; METALS; IMPACT
AB The dynamics of copper production is modeled with a prey-predator approach linking the evolution of reserves to that of industrial wealth. Our model differs from earlier approaches in that it does not require a priori knowledge of the initial stock of resources. The model variables and a long-term reference price are estimated from historical data, taking into account the combined effects on price and reserve of technological improvements and changes in ore grade. The business-as-usual scenarios invariably lead to a peak of primary production by the middle of the century. The peak of production is not the result of the complete exhaustion of exploitable copper but of the combination of (1) the deviation of growth of reserves from the exponential historical trend and (2) the incapacity of technological improvements to offset the increase in production costs. In the leveled-off-demand scenario for which future demand is simulated based on assumed evolutions of world population and gross domestic product per capita, no collapse of primary production is observed within the century for optimistic regeneration of reserves and a collection-recycling rate reaching 70% by 2100, at constant energy prices.
C1 [Vidal, Olivier; Francois, Cyril] Univ Grenoble Alpes, ISTerre, F-38400 Gieres, France.
   [Vidal, Olivier; Giraud, Gael] CNRS, F-75016 Paris, France.
   [Rostom, Fatma Zahra] Univ Paris 1 Pantheon Sorbonne, F-75013 Paris, France.
   [Rostom, Fatma Zahra; Giraud, Gael] Chaire Energie & Prosperite, F-75002 Paris, France.
   [Giraud, Gael] Agence Francaise Dev, F-75012 Paris, France.
C3 Communaute Universite Grenoble Alpes; Universite Grenoble Alpes (UGA);
   Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS); Institut de
   Recherche pour le Developpement (IRD); Universite Gustave-Eiffel;
   Universite Savoie Mont Blanc; Centre National de la Recherche
   Scientifique (CNRS)
RP Vidal, O (corresponding author), Univ Grenoble Alpes, ISTerre, F-38400 Gieres, France.; Vidal, O (corresponding author), CNRS, F-75016 Paris, France.
EM olivier.vidal@univ-grenoble-alpes.fr
RI vidal, olivier/E-7285-2012
FU SURFER (ADEME)
FX This study was financed by the projects REMINER (Mission
   interdisciplinaire du CNRS) and SURFER (ADEME). The authors thank the
   three anonymous reviewers for their valuable comments.
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NR 67
TC 17
Z9 23
U1 1
U2 35
PU AMER CHEMICAL SOC
PI WASHINGTON
PA 1155 16TH ST, NW, WASHINGTON, DC 20036 USA
SN 0013-936X
EI 1520-5851
J9 ENVIRON SCI TECHNOL
JI Environ. Sci. Technol.
PD OCT 1
PY 2019
VL 53
IS 19
BP 11323
EP 11336
DI 10.1021/acs.est.9b03883
PG 14
WC Engineering, Environmental; Environmental Sciences
WE Science Citation Index Expanded (SCI-EXPANDED); Social Science Citation Index (SSCI)
SC Engineering; Environmental Sciences & Ecology
GA JC0TU
UT WOS:000488993500030
PM 31432667
DA 2026-06-14
ER

PT J
AU Rammelt, CF
   van Schie, M
AF Rammelt, Crelis Ferdinand
   van Schie, Maarten
TI Ecology and equity in global fisheries: Modelling policy options using
   theoretical distributions
SO ECOLOGICAL MODELLING
LA English
DT Article
DE Fishing economy; System dynamics; Ecological economics; Environmental
   justice; Political ecology
ID ECONOMIC-SYSTEMS; MANAGEMENT; SUSTAINABILITY; STELLA
AB Global fisheries present a typical case of political ecology or environmental injustice, i.e. a problem of distribution of resources within ecological limits. We built a stock-flow model to visualize this challenge and its dynamics, with both an ecological and a social dimension. We incorporated theoretical distributions for non-linear variables that serve to calibrate the model as well as facilitate real-time exploration of scenarios. These scenarios represent potential policy interventions aimed at addressing ecology and equity concerns in fishing. Model results show oscillation representative of predator-prey dynamics, as well as various degrees of stabilisation, inequality in resource extraction and/or collapse. Our results support the view that the most effective policy choices directly affect the growth of physical capital for ecological stabilisation, and in the social dimension reduce inequity in political control over the accumulation of capital and allocation of resources. (C) 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
C1 [Rammelt, Crelis Ferdinand] Univ Utrecht, Dept Human Geog & Planning, Int Dev Studies, Fac Geosci, Heidelberglaan 2, NL-3508 TC Utrecht, Netherlands.
   [van Schie, Maarten] Bijltjespad 30B, NL-1018 KH Amsterdam, Netherlands.
C3 Utrecht University
RP Rammelt, CF (corresponding author), Univ Utrecht, Dept Human Geog & Planning, Int Dev Studies, Fac Geosci, Heidelberglaan 2, NL-3508 TC Utrecht, Netherlands.
EM c.f.rammelt@uu.nl; schiemaartenvan@gmail.com
RI Rammelt, Crelis/LDG-1551-2024
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NR 21
TC 4
Z9 4
U1 0
U2 45
PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE BV
PI AMSTERDAM
PA PO BOX 211, 1000 AE AMSTERDAM, NETHERLANDS
SN 0304-3800
EI 1872-7026
J9 ECOL MODEL
JI Ecol. Model.
PD OCT 10
PY 2016
VL 337
BP 107
EP 122
DI 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2016.06.011
PG 16
WC Ecology
WE Science Citation Index Expanded (SCI-EXPANDED); Social Science Citation Index (SSCI)
SC Environmental Sciences & Ecology
GA DV0EQ
UT WOS:000382591200012
OA Green Submitted, Bronze
DA 2026-06-14
ER

PT J
AU Glöser-Chahoud, S
   Hartwig, J
   Wheat, ID
   Faulstich, M
AF Gloeser-Chahoud, Simon
   Hartwig, Johannes
   Wheat, I. David
   Faulstich, Martin
TI The cobweb theorem and delays in adjusting supply in metals' markets
SO SYSTEM DYNAMICS REVIEW
LA English
DT Article
ID SYSTEM DYNAMICS; ADAPTIVE EXPECTATIONS; MODEL; RATES; PRICE
AB Global industrial metal markets have experienced a drastic price decline over the past years. In this paper we link the dynamics of raw material markets and commodity price fluctuations to a delayed adjustment of supply. Drawing on the classical cobweb theorem we show how the implementation of this theorem using system dynamics may yield a valuable explanation, not only for the recent price decline, but also for possible future price movements. Starting from a simple cobweb model of general industrial markets, we couple the price-adjusting mechanics to the global copper market and demonstrate how a simple market model can be merged with a physical material flow model. This model captures both market dynamics and technical aspects of raw material processing, recycling and substitution and adds an explanation for the widely accepted fact that the cost structure of the copper industry cannot explain current price levels. Finally, we compare the system dynamics forecasting model with a traditional econometric forecasting method and found the system dynamics model to be more intuitive and better suited to capture and convey the structural market fundamentals. Copyright (c) 2017 System Dynamics Society
C1 [Gloeser-Chahoud, Simon] Fraunhofer Inst Syst & Innovat Res ISI, Karlsruhe, Germany.
   [Gloeser-Chahoud, Simon; Faulstich, Martin] Tech Univ Clausthal, CUTEC Inst, Clausthal Zellerfeld, Germany.
   [Hartwig, Johannes] M Five GmbH Mobil Futures Innovat Econ, Karlsruhe, Germany.
   [Hartwig, Johannes; Wheat, I. David] Univ Bergen, Bergen, Norway.
C3 Fraunhofer Gesellschaft; Fraunhofer Germany; Fraunhofer Systems &
   Innovation Research; The Clausthal Institute for Environmental
   Technologies; TU Clausthal; University of Bergen
RP Glöser-Chahoud, S (corresponding author), Fraunhofer Inst Syst & Innovat Res ISI, Karlsruhe, Germany.; Glöser-Chahoud, S (corresponding author), Tech Univ Clausthal, CUTEC Inst, Clausthal Zellerfeld, Germany.
EM simon.gloeser@isi.fraunhofer.de
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NR 69
TC 11
Z9 15
U1 0
U2 13
PU WILEY
PI HOBOKEN
PA 111 RIVER ST, HOBOKEN 07030-5774, NJ USA
SN 0883-7066
EI 1099-1727
J9 SYST DYNAM REV
JI Syst. Dyn. Rev.
PD JUL-DEC
PY 2016
VL 32
IS 3-4
BP 279
EP 308
DI 10.1002/sdr.1565
PG 30
WC Management; Social Sciences, Mathematical Methods
WE Social Science Citation Index (SSCI)
SC Business & Economics; Mathematical Methods In Social Sciences
GA ET9RH
UT WOS:000400644800007
DA 2026-06-14
ER

PT J
AU Merino, G
   Barange, M
   Mullon, C
   Rodwell, L
AF Merino, Gorka
   Barange, Manuel
   Mullon, Christian
   Rodwell, Lynda
TI Impacts of global environmental change and aquaculture expansion on
   marine ecosystems
SO GLOBAL ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE-HUMAN AND POLICY DIMENSIONS
LA English
DT Article
DE Climate change; Sustainable food production; Aquaculture; Fishmeal;
   Fisheries; Globalization; Fisheries management; Optimal/sub-optimal
   adaptive management
ID FISH-MEAL; CLIMATE-CHANGE; WORLD FISH; FISHERIES; OIL; GLOBALIZATION;
   VARIABILITY; AQUAFEEDS; BANDITS
AB The stability of world's reduction fisheries and the global fishmeal market they support is explored through a geographically-specific, global bio-economic model, driven by three interactive forcing factors: climate-driven changes in the biological production of regional fish stocks, the potential global expansion of aquaculture demand for fishmeal and differential management schemes. The model captures approximately 85% of the world's fishmeal and fish oil data and is driven by trade data from the period 1997-2004. Twenty-year model simulations are conducted considering, on the production side, a random recruitment variability of the fish stocks supporting all regional production systems, plus an El Nino-type perturbation altering the productivity of Peruvian and Chilean stocks. The production systems are confronted with two alternative aquaculture expansion scenarios, allowing for the quantification of the synergism between regional climate-driven fluctuations and economic globalization of marine commodities in determining sustainable and unsustainable pathways for the world's reduction fisheries. The simulation results are compared to trends in regional climate indices, trade information from international markets and aquaculture and small pelagic fisheries data. The work pioneers the quantification of the double exposure created by climate variability and change and economic globalization on particular natural resources and explains the stakes involved in the development of fishmeal trade for global aquaculture expansion for marine fish populations. The results demonstrate that regional stocks can recover from climate-driven fluctuations unless these act simultaneously to an expansion in international market demand, and are subject to sub-optimal management schemes. It is argued that the dynamics of the fishmeal price since the early 1990 already responds to the balance between climatic variability in production and market developments, as mimicked by the model. Furthermore, under sub-optimal management scenarios, a sequential pattern of overexploitation emerges as an endogenous property of the interaction between regional climatic disturbances and a globalized trade system. It is concluded that the way we manage climate impacts, both at regional and global level, will determine the sustainability of the world's reduction fisheries, a conclusion that could be extended to other, similarly affected, natural resources. (C) 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
C1 [Merino, Gorka; Barange, Manuel] Plymouth Marine Lab, Plymouth PL1 3DH, Devon, England.
   [Merino, Gorka; Rodwell, Lynda] Univ Plymouth, Sch Marine Sci & Engn, Plymouth PL4 8AA, Devon, England.
   [Mullon, Christian] Ctr Rech Halieut, Unite Rech Ecosyst Upwelling, F-34200 Sete, France.
C3 Plymouth Marine Laboratory; University of Plymouth
RP Merino, G (corresponding author), Plymouth Marine Lab, Prospect Pl, Plymouth PL1 3DH, Devon, England.
EM gmerin@pml.ac.uk
RI ; Barange, Manuel/D-2689-2016; /D-5979-2018; , Gorka/D-5979-2018
OI Rodwell, Lynda/0000-0002-6580-2974; Barange, Manuel/0000-0002-1508-0483;
   , Gorka/0000-0001-6170-9396
FU Natural Environment Research Council of the UK; NERC [pml010005,
   NE/F001517/1] Funding Source: UKRI; Natural Environment Research Council
   [NE/F001517/1, pml010005] Funding Source: researchfish
FX Funding for this study has been provided by the Natural Environment
   Research Council of the UK as a contribution to the QUEST-Fish project
   (http://web.pml.ac.uk/quest-fish). The authors would like to thank
   Damien Eloire (PML, UK) and Guillermo Bejarano for his assistance in
   producing the figures, Drs M. Niquen (IMARPE, Peru), P. Freon (IRD,
   France) and J. F. Mittaine (IFFO, UK) and the World Bank for providing
   valuable data and Drs F. Maynou (CSIC, Spain) and G. Pilling (CEFAS, UK)
   and an anonymous reviewer for their valuable comments.
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NR 44
TC 59
Z9 65
U1 0
U2 98
PU ELSEVIER SCI LTD
PI OXFORD
PA THE BOULEVARD, LANGFORD LANE, KIDLINGTON, OXFORD OX5 1GB, OXON, ENGLAND
SN 0959-3780
EI 1872-9495
J9 GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG
JI Glob. Environ. Change-Human Policy Dimens.
PD OCT
PY 2010
VL 20
IS 4
SI SI
BP 586
EP 596
DI 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2010.07.008
PG 11
WC Environmental Sciences; Environmental Studies; Geography
WE Science Citation Index Expanded (SCI-EXPANDED); Social Science Citation Index (SSCI)
SC Environmental Sciences & Ecology; Geography
GA 682XR
UT WOS:000284436800007
DA 2026-06-14
ER

PT J
AU Merino, G
   Barange, M
   Mullon, C
AF Merino, Gorka
   Barange, Manuel
   Mullon, Christian
TI Climate variability and change scenarios for a marine commodity:
   Modelling small pelagic fish, fisheries and fishmeal in a globalized
   market
SO JOURNAL OF MARINE SYSTEMS
LA English
DT Article; Proceedings Paper
CT Symposium on Advances in Marine Ecosystem Modelling Research
CY JUN 23-26, 2008
CL Plymouth, ENGLAND
DE Small pelagic fisheries; Fish meal; Economic models; Fishery management;
   Climate variability and change; Economic globalization
ID PRIMARY PRODUCTIVITY; REGIME SHIFTS; WORLD FISH; AQUACULTURE; DYNAMICS;
   IMPACTS
AB The world's small pelagic fish populations, their fisheries, fishmeal and fish oil production industries and markets are part of a globalised production and consumption system. The potential for climate variability and change to alter the balance in this system is explored by means of bioeconomic models at two different temporal scales, with the objective of investigating the interactive nature of environmental and human-induced changes on this globalised system. Short-term (interannual) environmental impacts on fishmeal production are considered by including an annual variable production rate on individual small pelagic fish stocks over a 10-year simulation period. These impacts on the resources are perceived by the fishmeal markets, where they are confronted by two aquaculture expansion hypotheses. Long-term (2080) environmental impacts on the same stocks are estimated using long-term primary production predictions as proxies for the species' carrying capacities, rather than using variable production rates, and are confronted on the market side by two alternative fishmeal management scenarios consistent with IPCC-type storylines. The two scenarios, World Markets and Global Commons, are parameterized through classic equilibrium solutions for a global surplus production bioeconomic model, namely maximum sustainable yield and open access, respectively. The fisheries explicitly modelled in this paper represent 70% of total fishmeal production, thus encapsulating the expected dynamics of the global production and consumption system. Both short and long-term simulations suggest that the sustainability of the small pelagic resources, in the face of climate variability and change, depends more on how society responds to climate impacts than on the magnitude of climate alterations per se. (C) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
C1 [Merino, Gorka; Barange, Manuel] Plymouth Marine Lab, Plymouth PL1 3DH, Devon, England.
   [Merino, Gorka] Univ Plymouth, Sch Earth Ocean & Environm Sci, Plymouth PL4 8AA, Devon, England.
   [Mullon, Christian] Ctr Rech Halieut, Unite Rech Ecosyst Upwelling, F-34200 Sete, France.
C3 Plymouth Marine Laboratory; University of Plymouth
RP Merino, G (corresponding author), Plymouth Marine Lab, Prospect Pl, Plymouth PL1 3DH, Devon, England.
EM gmerin@pml.ac.uk
RI /D-5979-2018; Barange, Manuel/D-2689-2016; , Gorka/D-5979-2018
OI Barange, Manuel/0000-0002-1508-0483; , Gorka/0000-0001-6170-9396
FU NERC [pml010005, NE/F001517/1] Funding Source: UKRI; Natural Environment
   Research Council [pml010005, NE/F001517/1] Funding Source: researchfish
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NR 59
TC 47
Z9 51
U1 2
U2 47
PU ELSEVIER
PI AMSTERDAM
PA RADARWEG 29, 1043 NX AMSTERDAM, NETHERLANDS
SN 0924-7963
EI 1879-1573
J9 J MARINE SYST
JI J. Mar. Syst.
PD APR
PY 2010
VL 81
IS 1-2
SI SI
BP 196
EP 205
DI 10.1016/j.jmarsys.2009.12.010
PG 10
WC Geosciences, Multidisciplinary; Marine & Freshwater Biology;
   Oceanography
WE Science Citation Index Expanded (SCI-EXPANDED); Social Science Citation Index (SSCI); Conference Proceedings Citation Index - Science (CPCI-S)
SC Geology; Marine & Freshwater Biology; Oceanography
GA 576TV
UT WOS:000276172700016
DA 2026-06-14
ER

PT J
AU Mullon, C
   Mittaine, JF
   Thébaud, O
   Péron, G
   Merino, G
   Barange, M
AF Mullon, C.
   Mittaine, J-F.
   Thebaud, O.
   Peron, G.
   Merino, G.
   Barange, M.
TI MODELING THE GLOBAL FISHMEAL AND FISH OIL MARKETS
SO NATURAL RESOURCE MODELING
LA English
DT Article
DE Bio-economic modeling; networks economics; small pelagic fisheries;
   fishmeal; fish oil
ID BIOECONOMIC SIMULATION-MODEL; FISHERIES; ANCHOVY; SARDINE; VARIABILITY;
   AQUACULTURE; DYNAMICS
AB P>To explore the drivers of change in the complex system relating small pelagic fisheries and fishmeal/fish oil markets, to identify the interactions between these drivers and their overall impacts, we propose a bio-economic model, coupling the ecological and the economic dynamics of these global commodities. The model enables an analysis of the consequences of both global and local changes in the environment of production systems. Through sensitivity analysis of specific input parameters, we evaluate the robustness of the overall system to such changes and show that local responses of production systems and markets cannot be considered in isolation from the set of interactions at global level.
C1 [Mullon, C.] Unite Rech Ecosyst Marins Exploites, F-34200 Sete, France.
   [Mittaine, J-F.] Conservatoire Natl Arts & Metiers, Paris, France.
   [Thebaud, O.; Peron, G.] IFREMER, UMR AMURE, Dept Econ Maritime, F-29280 Plouzane, France.
   [Merino, G.; Barange, M.] Plymouth Marine Lab, Plymouth PL1 3, Devon, England.
C3 Ifremer; Institut de Recherche pour le Developpement (IRD); Universite
   de Montpellier; heSam Universite; Conservatoire National Arts & Metiers
   (CNAM); Universite de Bretagne Occidentale; Ifremer; Plymouth Marine
   Laboratory
RP Mullon, C (corresponding author), Unite Rech Ecosyst Marins Exploites, Ave Jean Monnet, F-34200 Sete, France.
EM Christian.Mullon@ird.fr
RI /D-5979-2018; Barange, Manuel/D-2689-2016; Thebaud, Olivier/D-9792-2011;
   , Gorka/D-5979-2018
OI Barange, Manuel/0000-0002-1508-0483; Thebaud,
   Olivier/0000-0001-8665-3827; , Gorka/0000-0001-6170-9396
FU ANR (France); QUEST_FISH project (UK)
FX This research is part of the program of the IRD Research Unit, Upwelling
   Ecosystems. Christian Mullon and Olivier Thebaud have been supported by
   the program CHALOUPE founded by ANR (France). Gorka Merino and Manuel
   Barange have been supported by QUEST_FISH project (UK). We thank Pierre
   Lopez for his work on the figures. We thank Pierre Freon for many
   advices and suggestions. We finally thank the anonymous referees of the
   paper for pertinent remarks.
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NR 54
TC 35
Z9 41
U1 0
U2 17
PU WILEY
PI HOBOKEN
PA 111 RIVER ST, HOBOKEN 07030-5774, NJ USA
SN 0890-8575
EI 1939-7445
J9 NAT RESOUR MODEL
JI Nat. Resour. Model.
PD NOV
PY 2009
VL 22
IS 4
BP 564
EP 609
DI 10.1111/j.1939-7445.2009.00053.x
PG 46
WC Environmental Sciences; Mathematics, Interdisciplinary Applications
WE Science Citation Index Expanded (SCI-EXPANDED)
SC Environmental Sciences & Ecology; Mathematics
GA 515KS
UT WOS:000271469300005
OA Bronze
DA 2026-06-14
ER

EF