FN Clarivate Analytics Web of Science
VR 1.0


PT J
AU Gicheru, JG
   Ngari, CG
   Njori, PW
AF Gicheru, James Gathungu
   Ngari, Cyrus Gitonga
   Njori, Peter Wanjohi
TI Modeling the role of fossil fuels and human activities in carbon (IV)
   oxide emissions and global warming
SO MODELING EARTH SYSTEMS AND ENVIRONMENT
LA English
DT Article
DE Emissions; Carbon (iv) oxide; Modelling; Simulations; Global warming
ID KEROSENE
AB This study addresses the critical issue of Carbon (IV) Oxide (CO2) emissions, a major contributor to global warming and climate change, and aligns with Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) 13 (Climate Action). While many previous studies focus on CO2 emissions at regional or national levels, this research introduces a global compartmental model to analyze interactions between human activity and fossil fuel consumption. Using a system of ordinary differential equations solved through the Runge-Kutta method and simulated in MATLAB, the study investigates how various factors contribute to CO2 emissions. Results show that increase in human population and increased fossil fuel use leads to rise in CO2 emission. Data fitting based on Newton's Law of Cooling suggests that global temperature could rise by up to 6.57 degrees C, though more realistic estimates range between 0.59 degrees C and 2.46 degrees C over two years. Importantly, increasing plant cover could boost CO2 absorption, offering a significant mitigation strategy. The findings support global efforts to reduce emissions and combat climate-related threats such as rising sea levels, extreme weather, and health risks.
C1 [Gicheru, James Gathungu; Ngari, Cyrus Gitonga; Njori, Peter Wanjohi] Kirinyaga Univ, Kerugoya, Kenya.
RP Gicheru, JG (corresponding author), Kirinyaga Univ, Kerugoya, Kenya.
EM jamesgicheru94@gmail.com; ngaricyrus15@gmail.com; pnjori@kyu.ac.ke
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NR 34
TC 0
Z9 0
U1 3
U2 3
PU SPRINGER HEIDELBERG
PI HEIDELBERG
PA TIERGARTENSTRASSE 17, D-69121 HEIDELBERG, GERMANY
SN 2363-6203
EI 2363-6211
J9 MODEL EARTH SYST ENV
JI Model. Earth Syst. Environ.
PD DEC 29
PY 2025
VL 12
IS 1
AR 67
DI 10.1007/s40808-025-02702-7
PG 14
WC Environmental Sciences
WE Emerging Sources Citation Index (ESCI)
SC Environmental Sciences & Ecology
GA AL0FM
UT WOS:001650628600002
DA 2026-06-14
ER

PT J
AU Mariani, G
   Guiet, J
   Bianchi, D
   Devries, T
   Barrier, N
   Troussellier, M
   Mouillot, D
AF Mariani, Gael
   Guiet, Jerome
   Bianchi, Daniele
   Devries, Tim
   Barrier, Nicolas
   Troussellier, Marc
   Mouillot, David
TI The combined impact of fisheries and climate change on future carbon
   sequestration by oceanic macrofauna
SO NATURE COMMUNICATIONS
LA English
DT Article
ID NATURAL MORTALITY; DIOXIDE REMOVAL; MODEL; SIZE; ECOSYSTEM; PROTOCOL;
   OFFSETS; SYSTEM
AB Although the role of marine macrofauna in the ocean carbon cycle is increasingly understood, the cumulative impacts of fisheries and climate change on this pathway remain overlooked. Here, using a marine ecosystem model, we estimate that each degree of warming reduces macrofauna biomass and carbon export by 4.2% and 2.46%, respectively. Under a high emission scenario (SSP 5-8.5), this translates to a 13.5% +/- 6.6% decline in export by 2100, relative to the 1990s. Fishing further amplifies this reduction by up to 56.7% +/- 16.3%, creating a sequestration deficit of 14.6 +/- 10.3 GtC by 2100. On average, a 1% biomass loss from fishing results in a 0.8% decline in carbon export. However, sequestration durability (similar to 600 years) remains unaffected. While measures restoring commercial macrofaunal biomass could yield carbon benefits comparable to mangrove restoration, multiple uncertainties limit their inclusion in the Nature-based Climate Solution portfolio, highlighting the need for further research.
C1 [Mariani, Gael; Barrier, Nicolas; Troussellier, Marc; Mouillot, David] Univ Montpellier, CNRS, MARBEC, Ifremer, Montpellier, France.
   [Mariani, Gael] World Maritime Univ, Sasakawa Global Ocean Inst, Malmo, Sweden.
   [Guiet, Jerome; Bianchi, Daniele] Univ Calif Los Angeles, Dept Atmospher & Ocean Sci, Los Angeles, CA USA.
   [Devries, Tim] Univ Calif Santa Barbara, Dept Geog, Santa Barbara, CA USA.
   [Devries, Tim] Univ Calif Santa Barbara, Earth Res Inst, Santa Barbara, CA USA.
C3 Ifremer; Universite de Montpellier; Centre National de la Recherche
   Scientifique (CNRS); University of California System; University of
   California Los Angeles; University of California System; University of
   California Santa Barbara; University of California System; University of
   California Santa Barbara
RP Mariani, G (corresponding author), Univ Montpellier, CNRS, MARBEC, Ifremer, Montpellier, France.; Mariani, G (corresponding author), World Maritime Univ, Sasakawa Global Ocean Inst, Malmo, Sweden.
EM gael-mariani@hotmail.com
RI Mouillot, David/HCH-5670-2022; Mariani, Gaël/HZL-5628-2023; Barrier,
   Nicolas/JME-3194-2023
OI Mouillot, David/0000-0003-0402-2605; Mariani, Gaël/0000-0003-3816-5583;
   DeVries, Tim/0000-0002-7771-9430; Barrier, Nicolas/0000-0002-1693-4719
FU La Fondation de la Mer (France); EC | Horizon 2020 Framework Programme
   (EU Framework Programme for Research and Innovation H2020) [101083922]
FX Funding was provided through the PhD scholarship from the University of
   Montpellier to G.M. and the Scholarship of La Fondation de la Mer
   (France) to G.M. Work by G.M. was also partially funded by the European
   Union under grant agreement no. 101083922 (OceanICU). Views and opinions
   expressed are however those of the author(s) only and do not necessarily
   reflect those of the European Union or European Research Executive
   Agency. Neither the European Union nor the granting authority can be
   held responsible for them. JG and DB acknowledge support from the
   National Aeronautics and Space Administration grant 80NSSC25K7430, and
   computational resources from the Expanse system at the San Diego
   Supercomputer Center through allocation TG-OCE170017 from the Advanced
   Cyber infrastructure Coordination Ecosystem: Services and Support
   (ACCESS) program, which is supported by National Science Foundation
   grants 2138259, 2138286, 2138307, 2137603, and 2138296.
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NR 80
TC 2
Z9 2
U1 8
U2 13
PU NATURE PORTFOLIO
PI BERLIN
PA HEIDELBERGER PLATZ 3, BERLIN, 14197, GERMANY
EI 2041-1723
J9 NAT COMMUN
JI Nat. Commun.
PD OCT 27
PY 2025
VL 16
IS 1
AR 8845
DI 10.1038/s41467-025-64576-8
PG 14
WC Multidisciplinary Sciences
WE Science Citation Index Expanded (SCI-EXPANDED)
SC Science & Technology - Other Topics
GA 9DK3B
UT WOS:001603687300027
PM 41145529
OA Green Submitted, gold
DA 2026-06-14
ER



PT J
AU Mehmood, A
   Hassan, M
   Donald, P
   Almazah, MMA
AF Mehmood, Abid
   Hassan, Mohsan
   Donald, Pita
   Almazah, Mohammed M. A.
TI Design of an integral sliding mode controller for reducing
   CO2 emissions in the transport sector to control global
   warming
SO SCIENTIFIC REPORTS
LA English
DT Article
DE Global warming; ISMC; Sensitivity analysis
AB Carbon dioxide (CO2) is the significant contributor to greenhouse gases and plays a crucial role in the greenhouse effect and climate change. The primary source of CO2 emissions is fossil fuel combustion, basically due to human activities and transportation activities. The objective of this research is to develop a dynamic model aimed at mitigating global warming by reducing atmospheric CO2 emissions resulting from the transportation sector. The model includes equations for atmospheric CO2 emissions, human population, vehicle population, and global warming. Initially, the stability of the model at each equilibrium point is determined by analyzing the eigenvalues of the Jacobian matrix. Subsequently, sensitivity analysis is performed to predict the impact of any parameter of a vehicle population and CO2 emissions causing global warming. The vehicle parameters are then optimized by applying an integral sliding mode controller (ISMC) to decrease CO2 emissions and minimize global warming. The ISMC method effectively reduces CO2 emissions and offers stability for human and vehicle populations, ultimately leading to a reduction in global warming. It is has been found that reducing the vehicle population by 20% can lead to about 4% reduction in CO2 emissions. This study integrates optimization control techniques to develop a comprehensive model to address CO2 emissions and global warming, providing a robust framework for sustainable environmental management.
C1 [Mehmood, Abid; Hassan, Mohsan] COMSATS Univ Islamabad, Dept Math, Lahore Campus, Lahore, Pakistan.
   [Donald, Pita] Nelson Mandela African Inst Sci & Technol NM AIST, Sch Computat & Commun Sci & Engn, POB 447, Arusha, Tanzania.
   [Donald, Pita] Natl Inst Transport NIT, Fac Informat & Tech Educ, POB 705, Dar Es Salaam, Tanzania.
   [Almazah, Mohammed M. A.] King Khalid Univ, Coll Sci & Arts Muhyil, Dept Math, Muhyil 61421, Saudi Arabia.
C3 COMSATS University Islamabad (CUI); King Khalid University
RP Donald, P (corresponding author), Nelson Mandela African Inst Sci & Technol NM AIST, Sch Computat & Commun Sci & Engn, POB 447, Arusha, Tanzania.; Donald, P (corresponding author), Natl Inst Transport NIT, Fac Informat & Tech Educ, POB 705, Dar Es Salaam, Tanzania.
EM donaldp@nm-aist.ac.tz
RI Almazah, Mohammed/HKO-9668-2023; Hassan, Mohsan/AGY-1345-2022
OI Hassan, Mohsan/0000-0003-2483-0167
FU Deanship of Research and Graduate Studies at King Khalid University
   under grant number RGP2/70/46. [RGP2/70/46]; Deanship of Research and
   Graduate Studies at King Khalid University
FX The authors extend their appreciation to the Deanship of Research and
   Graduate Studies at King Khalid University for funding this work through
   Large Research Project under grant number RGP2/70/46.
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NR 23
TC 5
Z9 5
U1 10
U2 19
PU NATURE PORTFOLIO
PI BERLIN
PA HEIDELBERGER PLATZ 3, BERLIN, 14197, GERMANY
SN 2045-2322
J9 SCI REP-UK
JI Sci Rep
PD AUG 8
PY 2025
VL 15
IS 1
AR 29100
DI 10.1038/s41598-025-98530-x
PG 15
WC Multidisciplinary Sciences
WE Science Citation Index Expanded (SCI-EXPANDED)
SC Science & Technology - Other Topics
GA 5YC4S
UT WOS:001547097300004
PM 40781361
OA Green Submitted, gold
DA 2026-06-14
ER

PT J
AU Bacca, EJM
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AF Molina Bacca, Edna Johanna
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   Volkholz, Jan
   Frieler, Katja
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   Humpenoeder, Florian
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   Stehfest, Elke
   Popp, Alexander
TI Future land-use pattern projections and their differences within the
   ISIMIP3b framework
SO EARTH SYSTEM DYNAMICS
LA English
DT Article
ID CLIMATE-CHANGE; COVER CHANGE; MODEL; MANAGEMENT; IMPACTS; UNCERTAINTIES;
   AGRICULTURE; SCENARIOS; DRIVERS; RISK
AB Land use is a key human driver affecting Earth's biogeochemical cycles, hydrology, and biodiversity. Therefore, projecting future land use is crucial for global change impact analyses. This study compares harmonized land-use and management trends, analyzing uncertainties through a three-factor variance analysis involving socioeconomic-climate scenarios, land-use models, and climate models. The projected patterns are used as human-forcing inputs for the Intersectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project phase 3b (ISIMIP3b) and multiple impact modeling teams. We employ two models (IMAGE and MAgPIE) to project future land use and management under three socioeconomic-climate scenarios (SSP1-RCP2.6, SSP3-RCP7.0, and SSP5-RCP8.5), driven by impact data like yields, water demand, and carbon stocks from updated climate projections of five global models, considering CO2 fertilization effects. On the global level, there is strong agreement among land-use models on land-use trends in the SSP1-RCP2.6 scenario (low adaptation and mitigation challenges). However, significant differences exist in management-related variables, such as the area allocated for second-generation bioenergy crops. Uncertainty in land-use variables increases with higher spatial resolution, particularly concerning the locations where cropland and grassland shrinkage could occur under this scenario. In SSP5-RCP8.5 and SSP3-RCP7.0, differences among land-use models in global and regional trends are primarily associated with grassland area demand. Concerning the variance analysis, the selection of climate models minimally affects the variance in projections at different scales. However, the influence of the socioeconomic-climate scenarios, the land-use model, and interactions among the underlying factors on projected uncertainty varies for the different land-use and management variables. Our results highlight the need for more intercomparison exercises focusing on future spatially explicit projections to enhance understanding of the intricate interplay between human activities, climate, socioeconomic dynamics, land responses, and their associated uncertainties on the high-resolution level as models evolve. It also underscores the importance of region-specific strategies to balance agricultural productivity, environmental conservation, and sustainable resource use, emphasizing adaptive capacity building, improved land-use management, and targeted conservation efforts.
C1 [Molina Bacca, Edna Johanna; Stevanovic, Miodrag; Bodirsky, Benjamin Leon; Volkholz, Jan; Frieler, Katja; Reyer, Christopher Paul Oliver; Humpenoeder, Florian; Karstens, Kristine; Heinke, Jens; Mueller, Christoph; Dietrich, Jan Philipp; Lotze-Campen, Hermann; Popp, Alexander] Leibniz Assoc, Potsdam Inst Climate Impact Res, Potsdam, Germany.
   [Molina Bacca, Edna Johanna; Karstens, Kristine; Lotze-Campen, Hermann] Humboldt Univ, Dept Agr Econ, Berlin, Germany.
   [Doelman, Jonathan Cornelis; Stehfest, Elke] PBL Netherlands Environm Assessment Agcy, The Hague, Netherlands.
   [Doelman, Jonathan Cornelis] Univ Utrecht, Copernicus Inst Sustainable Dev, Utrecht, Netherlands.
   [Hurtt, George] Univ Maryland, Dept Geog Sci, College Pk, MD USA.
   [Frieler, Katja] Univ Potsdam, Inst Environm Sci & Geog, Potsdam, Germany.
   [Popp, Alexander] Univ Kassel, Fac Organ Agr Sci, Witzenhausen, Germany.
C3 Potsdam Institut fur Klimafolgenforschung; Humboldt University of
   Berlin; Utrecht University; University System of Maryland; University of
   Maryland College Park; University of Potsdam; Universitat Kassel
RP Bacca, EJM (corresponding author), Leibniz Assoc, Potsdam Inst Climate Impact Res, Potsdam, Germany.; Bacca, EJM (corresponding author), Humboldt Univ, Dept Agr Econ, Berlin, Germany.
EM mbacca@pik-potsdam.de
RI Müller, Christoph/E-4812-2016; Lotze-Campen, Hermann/AAA-5093-2020;
   Dietrich, Jan Philipp/ABG-3548-2021; Stevanović, Mioag/B-8303-2018;
   Chini, Louise/LEL-7744-2024; Popp, Alexander/N-7064-2014; Humpenöder,
   Florian/HHN-1081-2022; Bodirsky, Benjamin Leon/ABH-9170-2020; Stehfest,
   Elke/AAZ-4121-2020; Reyer, Christopher/A-5515-2013
OI Stevanović, Mioag/0000-0003-1799-186X; Molina Bacca,
   Edna/0000-0001-6530-1849; Hurtt, George/0000-0001-7278-202X; Humpenöder,
   Florian/0000-0003-2927-9407; Bodirsky, Benjamin
   Leon/0000-0002-8242-6712; Reyer, Christopher/0000-0003-1067-1492
FU European Union's Horizon Europe Research and Innovation program;
   LegumES; NASA Carbon Monitoring System program; COST (European
   Cooperation in Science and Technology); BMBF;  [101056848]; 
   [101135512];  [80NSSC21K1059];  [01LS2105A]
FX The co-authors' work for this research has been supported by the
   European Union's Horizon Europe Research and Innovation program (project
   Wet Horizons (grant no. 101056848) and LegumES (grant no. 101135512)),
   the NASA Carbon Monitoring System program (grant no. 80NSSC21K1059), the
   COST (European Cooperation in Science and Technology), and the BMBF
   (project ABCDR (grant no. 01LS2105A)).
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NR 97
TC 6
Z9 7
U1 8
U2 15
PU COPERNICUS GESELLSCHAFT MBH
PI GOTTINGEN
PA BAHNHOFSALLEE 1E, GOTTINGEN, 37081, GERMANY
SN 2190-4979
EI 2190-4987
J9 EARTH SYST DYNAM
JI Earth Syst. Dynam.
PD JUN 4
PY 2025
VL 16
IS 3
BP 753
EP 801
DI 10.5194/esd-16-753-2025
PG 49
WC Geosciences, Multidisciplinary
WE Science Citation Index Expanded (SCI-EXPANDED)
SC Geology
GA 3JB8V
UT WOS:001501554800001
OA Green Submitted, gold
DA 2026-06-14
ER

PT J
AU van Vuuren, DP
   Doelman, JC
   Tagomori, IS
   Beusen, AHW
   Cornell, SE
   Röckstrom, J
   Schipper, AM
   Stehfest, E
   Ambrosio, G
   van den Berg, M
   Bouwman, L
   Daioglou, V
   Harmsen, M
   Lucas, P
   van der Wijst, KI
   van Zeist, WJ
AF van Vuuren, Detlef P.
   Doelman, Jonathan C.
   Tagomori, Isabela Schmidt
   Beusen, Arthur H. W.
   Cornell, Sarah E.
   Rockstrom, Johan
   Schipper, Aafke M.
   Stehfest, Elke
   Ambrosio, Geanderson
   van den Berg, Maarten
   Bouwman, Lex
   Daioglou, Vassilis
   Harmsen, Mathijs
   Lucas, Paul
   van der Wijst, Kaj-Ivar
   van Zeist, Willem-Jan
TI Exploring pathways for world development within planetary boundaries
SO NATURE
LA English
DT Article
ID TERRESTRIAL BIODIVERSITY; MODEL; WATER; SCENARIOS; OCEAN; LAND; SAFE;
   DEMAND; SYSTEM; FUTURE
AB The pressures humanity has been placing on the environment have put Earth's stability at risk. The planetary boundaries framework serves as a method to define a 'safe operating space for humanity'1,2 and has so far been applied mostly to highlight the currently prevailing unsustainable environmental conditions. The ability to evaluate trends over time, however, can help us explore the consequences of alternative policy decisions and identify pathways for living within planetary boundaries3. Here we use the Integrated Model to Assess the Global Environment4 to project control variables for eight out of nine planetary boundaries under alternative scenarios to 2050, both with and without strong environmental policy measures. The results show that, with current trends and policies, the situation is projected to worsen to 2050 for all planetary boundaries, except for ozone depletion. Targeted interventions, such as implementing the Paris climate agreement, a shift to a healthier diet, improved food, and water- and nutrient-use efficiency, can effectively reduce the degree of transgression of the planetary boundaries, steering humanity towards a more sustainable trajectory (that is, if they can be implemented based on social and institutional feasibility considerations). However, even in this scenario, several planetary boundaries, including climate change, biogeochemical flows and biodiversity, will remain transgressed in 2050, partly as result of inertia. This means that more-effective policy measures will be needed to ensure we are living well within the planetary boundaries.
C1 [van Vuuren, Detlef P.; Doelman, Jonathan C.; Tagomori, Isabela Schmidt; Beusen, Arthur H. W.; Schipper, Aafke M.; Stehfest, Elke; van den Berg, Maarten; Bouwman, Lex; Daioglou, Vassilis; Harmsen, Mathijs; Lucas, Paul] Netherlands Environm Assessment Agcy PBL, The Hague, Netherlands.
   [van Vuuren, Detlef P.; Doelman, Jonathan C.; Ambrosio, Geanderson; Daioglou, Vassilis; van der Wijst, Kaj-Ivar] Univ Utrecht, Copernicus Inst Sustainable Dev, Utrecht, Netherlands.
   [Beusen, Arthur H. W.; Bouwman, Lex] Univ Utrecht, Fac Geosci, Dept Earth Sci Geochem, Utrecht, Netherlands.
   [Cornell, Sarah E.; Rockstrom, Johan] Stockholm Resilience Ctr, Stockholm, Sweden.
   [Rockstrom, Johan] Potsdam Inst Climate Impact Res, Potsdam, Germany.
   [Rockstrom, Johan] Univ Potsdam, Inst Environm Sci & Geog, Potsdam, Germany.
   [Schipper, Aafke M.] Radboud Univ Nijmegen, Radboud Inst Biol & Environm Sci RIBES, Nijmegen, Netherlands.
   [van Zeist, Willem-Jan] Wageningen Econ Res, The Hague, Netherlands.
C3 Utrecht University; Utrecht University; Stockholm University; Potsdam
   Institut fur Klimafolgenforschung; University of Potsdam; Radboud
   University Nijmegen; Wageningen University & Research
RP van Vuuren, DP (corresponding author), Netherlands Environm Assessment Agcy PBL, The Hague, Netherlands.; van Vuuren, DP (corresponding author), Univ Utrecht, Copernicus Inst Sustainable Dev, Utrecht, Netherlands.
EM detlef.vanvuuren@pbl.nl
RI ; van der Wijst, Kaj-Ivar/AAH-1418-2021; van Vuuren, Detlef/A-4764-2009;
   Rockström, Johan/G-1168-2010; Stehfest, Elke/AAZ-4121-2020; Schipper,
   Aafke/C-2758-2011; Bouwman, Lex/B-7053-2012; Daioglou,
   Vassilis/L-7262-2013
OI Doelman, Jonathan/0000-0002-6842-573X; Ambrósio,
   Geanderson/0000-0001-6285-2282; Beusen, Arthur/0000-0003-0104-8615;
   Lucas, Paul/0000-0003-0292-7830; van Vuuren, Detlef/0000-0003-0398-2831;
   Rockström, Johan/0000-0001-8988-2983; Stehfest,
   Elke/0000-0003-3016-2679; 
FU European Research Council under grant ERC-CoG PICASSO [819566]; H2020
   Programme of the European Research Council [101060075, 101056873];
   European Research Council through the Earth Resilience in the
   Anthropocene project [ERC-2016-ADG 743080]; European Union's Horizon
   Europe grant [101081661]; Swedish Research Council Formas grant
   [2020-00371]; Future Earth; European Research Council (ERC) [819566]
   Funding Source: European Research Council (ERC); Formas [2020-00371]
   Funding Source: Formas; Horizon Europe - Pillar II [101081661,
   101060075] Funding Source: Horizon Europe - Pillar II
FX This work was aided by funding from the European Research Council under
   grant ERC-CoG PICASSO (number 819566) to D.P.v.V. and G.A. and also from
   the H2020 Programme of the European Research Council projects
   Brightspace (grant agreement number 101060075) to E.S., J.C.D.,
   W.-J.v.Z., D.P.v.V. and ELEVATE (101056873) to D.P.v.V. and I.S.T. J.R.
   and S.E.C. acknowledge financial support from the European Research
   Council through the Earth Resilience in the Anthropocene project
   (ERC-2016-ADG 743080). S.E.C. also acknowledges partial support from the
   European Union's Horizon Europe grant (101081661) (WorldTrans) and a
   Swedish Research Council Formas grant (2020-00371) (Economics of
   Planetary Boundaries). The paper benefitted from interactions with other
   members of the Earth Commission, funded by Future Earth.
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PU NATURE PORTFOLIO
PI BERLIN
PA HEIDELBERGER PLATZ 3, BERLIN, 14197, GERMANY
SN 0028-0836
EI 1476-4687
J9 NATURE
JI Nature
PD MAY 22
PY 2025
VL 641
IS 8064
DI 10.1038/s41586-025-08928-w
EA MAY 2025
PG 14
WC Multidisciplinary Sciences
WE Science Citation Index Expanded (SCI-EXPANDED)
SC Science & Technology - Other Topics
GA 2XU6A
UT WOS:001488423200001
PM 40369085
OA Green Submitted, hybrid
HC Y
HP N
DA 2026-06-14
ER

PT J
AU Donald, PM
   Salamida, DN
   Panga, PA
   Mayengo, MM
AF Donald, Pita M.
   Salamida, Daudi N.
   Panga, Paul A.
   Mayengo, Maranya M.
TI Modeling and control of global warming driven by transportation-induced
   carbon dioxide emissions through green economy investments
SO RESULTS IN ENGINEERING
LA English
DT Article
DE Global warming; CO2 emission; Climate action; Sustainable economic
   growth; Climate change; Green economy
ID STABILITY
AB Global warming poses a significant threat to the environment and human well-being, necessitating urgent mitigation measures. This study develops a mathematical model to analyze the impact of fossil-fueled vehicle emissions on atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) concentrations and global warming. The model assumes that global warming is driven by rising atmospheric CO2 levels, which are influenced by vehicle population growth. System parameters are calibrated using global datasets on atmospheric CO2 concentration, human population, vehicle production, global temperature, and Gross Domestic Product (GDP). Model validation against global data demonstrates excellent predictive performance, as confirmed by statistical metrics. Sensitivity analysis reveals that vehicle growth rate, CO2-induced global warming, and population-driven temperature increases are key contributors to rising global temperatures. To stabilize the system, investment in the green economy, transitioning from fossil-fueled to clean energy vehicles, and implementing economic policies to curb temperature rise are essential, as confirmed by the numerical simulation of an optimal control problem. Numerical simulations further validate the analytical findings and explore the impact of parameter variations on system behavior. This article integrates an optimal control framework into a dynamic system to formulate data-driven strategies for minimizing global warming while ensuring sustainable economic growth.
C1 [Donald, Pita M.; Salamida, Daudi N.; Panga, Paul A.] Natl Inst Transport NIT, Fac Informat & Tech Educ, POB 705, Dar Es Salaam, Tanzania.
   [Mayengo, Maranya M.] Nelson Mandela African Inst Sci & Technol NM AIST, Sch Computat & Commun Sci & Engn, POB 447, Arusha, Tanzania.
RP Donald, PM (corresponding author), Natl Inst Transport NIT, Fac Informat & Tech Educ, POB 705, Dar Es Salaam, Tanzania.
EM donaldp@nm-aist.ac.tz
OI Donald, Pita/0000-0002-3142-5314
FU National Institute of Transport (NIT)
FX Authors gratefully acknowledge The National Institute of Transport (NIT)
   .
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NR 33
TC 18
Z9 18
U1 18
U2 30
PU ELSEVIER
PI AMSTERDAM
PA RADARWEG 29, 1043 NX AMSTERDAM, NETHERLANDS
SN 2590-1230
J9 RESULTS ENG
JI Results Eng.
PD JUN
PY 2025
VL 26
AR 105048
DI 10.1016/j.rineng.2025.105048
EA APR 2025
PG 16
WC Engineering, Multidisciplinary
WE Emerging Sources Citation Index (ESCI)
SC Engineering
GA 2KV9H
UT WOS:001485056600005
OA Green Submitted, gold
DA 2026-06-14
ER

PT J
AU Guiet, J
   Bianchi, D
   Scherrer, KJN
   Heneghan, RF
   Galbraith, ED
AF Guiet, J.
   Bianchi, D.
   Scherrer, K. J. N.
   Heneghan, R. F.
   Galbraith, E. D.
TI Small Commercial Fish Biomass Limits the Catch Potential in the High
   Seas
SO EARTHS FUTURE
LA English
DT Article
DE High Seas; marine ecosystems; fisheries; energy pathways; ocean
   productivity; climate change
ID GLOBAL PATTERNS; FISHERIES; COMMUNITIES; DEPTH; MODEL
AB The High Seas, lying beyond the boundaries of nations' Exclusive Economic Zones, cover most of the ocean surface and host half of marine primary production. Yet, a tiny fraction of global wild fish catch comes from the High Seas, despite intensifying industrial fishing efforts. The paradoxically small fish catch could reflect economic barriers to exploiting the High Seas - such as the difficulty and cost of fishing in remote ocean parts - or ecological features resulting in a small biomass of commercial fish (10g-100 kg) relative to primary production. We use the coupled biological-economic model BOATS to estimate contributing factors, comparing observed catches with simulations where: (a) fishing cost depends on distance from shore and seafloor depth; (b) catchability depends on seafloor depth or vertical habitat extent; (c) regions with micronutrient limitation have reduced biomass production; (d) the trophic transfer of energy from primary production to demersal food webs depends on water depth; and (e) High Seas biomass migrates to coastal regions. The dominant factor is ecological: commercial fish communities receive much primary production in shallow waters but less in deep waters, limiting exploitable biomass in High Seas. Other factors play a secondary role, with migrations having a potentially large but uncertain role, while economic factors have smaller effects. We estimate the High Seas hosted 25% $\%$ of a global 2.8 +/- $\pm $ 0.7 Gt biomass in the early 20th century, changing to 47% of a global 1.5 +/- $\pm $ 0.4 Gt of commercial fish biomass during the early 21st century. Our results stress the limited potential of High Seas to provide food through wild capture fisheries.
C1 [Guiet, J.; Bianchi, D.] Univ Calif Los Angeles, Dept Atmospher & Ocean Sci, Los Angeles, CA 90095 USA.
   [Scherrer, K. J. N.] Univ Bergen, Dept Biol Sci, Bergen, Norway.
   [Heneghan, R. F.] Griffith Univ, Australian Rivers Inst, Sch Environm & Sci, Nathan, Qld, Australia.
   [Heneghan, R. F.] Univ Sunshine Coast, Sch Sci Technol & Engn, Petrie, Qld, Australia.
   [Galbraith, E. D.] McGill Univ, Earth & Planetary Sci, Montreal, PQ, Canada.
C3 University of California System; University of California Los Angeles;
   University of Bergen; Griffith University; University of the Sunshine
   Coast; McGill University
RP Guiet, J (corresponding author), Univ Calif Los Angeles, Dept Atmospher & Ocean Sci, Los Angeles, CA 90095 USA.
EM jerome.c.guiet@gmail.com
RI Scherrer, Kim/V-3008-2019; Galbraith, Eric/F-9469-2014
OI Heneghan, Ryan/0000-0001-7626-1248; Galbraith, Eric/0000-0003-4476-4232
FU US National Aeronautics and Space Administration [80NSSC21K0420]; US
   National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA); Coordination
   Ecosystem: Services and Support (ACCESS) program [2138259, 2138286,
   2138307, 2137603, 2138296]; National Science Foundation
   [CRC-2020-00108]; Canada Research Chairs Program fund [326896];
   Norwegian Research Council; Global Fisheries and Marine Ecosystems
   Sector
FX D.B. and J.G. acknowledge support from the US National Aeronautics and
   Space Administration (NASA) Grant 80NSSC21K0420. Computational resources
   were provided by the Expanse system at the San Diego Supercomputer
   Center through allocation TG-OCE170017 from the Advanced Cyber
   infrastructure Coordination Ecosystem: Services and Support (ACCESS)
   program, which is supported by National Science Foundation Grants
   2138259, 2138286, 2138307, 2137603, and 2138296. E.D.G. was supported by
   the Canada Research Chairs Program fund number CRC-2020-00108. K.J.N.S
   was supported by the Norwegian Research Council, project 326896. For
   their roles in producing, coordinating, and making available the ISIMIP
   input data and impact model output, we acknowledge the modeling groups,
   the ISIMIP sector coordinators and the ISIMIP cross-sectoral science
   team (listed in Table S1 of this paper) for the Global Fisheries and
   Marine Ecosystems Sector.
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TC 2
Z9 4
U1 1
U2 5
PU AMER GEOPHYSICAL UNION
PI WASHINGTON
PA 2000 FLORIDA AVE NW, WASHINGTON, DC 20009 USA
EI 2328-4277
J9 EARTHS FUTURE
JI Earth Future
PD APR 24
PY 2025
VL 13
IS 4
AR e2024EF004571
DI 10.1029/2024EF004571
PG 16
WC Environmental Sciences; Geosciences, Multidisciplinary; Meteorology &
   Atmospheric Sciences
WE Science Citation Index Expanded (SCI-EXPANDED)
SC Environmental Sciences & Ecology; Geology; Meteorology & Atmospheric
   Sciences
GA 1UP5D
UT WOS:001474032500001
OA Green Submitted, gold
DA 2026-06-14
ER

PT J
AU Mehmood, A
   Hassan, M
   Ali, I
   Jawo, E
AF Mehmood, Abid
   Hassan, Mohsan
   Ali, Irfan
   Jawo, Edrisa
TI A mathematical model for optimizing global warming caused by carbon
   dioxide emissions from energy sector
SO AIP ADVANCES
LA English
DT Article
AB Background: Carbon dioxide levels in the atmosphere are increasing day by day due to diverse sources leading to global warming. Meeting the energy demands of the growing human population results in large-scale carbon dioxide (CO2) production. Effective reduction of CO2 emissions from the energy sector and others through optimization is required to reduce global warming. Model: This paper presents a mathematical model that captures the dynamic relationship between carbon dioxide levels in the atmosphere, human population dynamics, energy use, and the progression of global warming as distinct sections. Real-time data from these sections are utilized to adjust model parameters. Methodology: First, the stability analysis of the proposed model is examined to determine whether solutions remain bounded or converge to specific states on the equilibrium points. Second, sensitivity analysis of the model is investigated and determines the behavior of the dynamic system on changes in parameters. Finally, an optimization technique is applied to the model to reduce global warming by optimizing the level of CO2 emissions from the energy sector. Results: The results of the optimization process show that global warming can be significantly reduced by decreasing CO2 emissions from the energy sector. Novelty: The comprehensive analysis and validation of the proposed model provide valuable insights for developing effective strategies to address climate change.
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C3 COMSATS University Islamabad (CUI); Sukkur IBA University; University of
   the Gambia
RP Jawo, E (corresponding author), Univ Gambia, Sch Arts & Sci, Serrekunda, Gambia.
EM ejawo@utg.edu.gm
RI ; Hassan, Mohsan/AGY-1345-2022
OI Jawo, Eisa/0000-0003-1620-7316; Jawo, Edrisa/0009-0000-6672-7411;
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NR 20
TC 3
Z9 3
U1 5
U2 14
PU AIP Publishing
PI MELVILLE
PA 1305 WALT WHITMAN RD, STE 300, MELVILLE, NY 11747-4501 USA
EI 2158-3226
J9 AIP ADV
JI AIP Adv.
PD FEB 1
PY 2025
VL 15
IS 2
AR 025223
DI 10.1063/5.0255979
PG 10
WC Nanoscience & Nanotechnology; Materials Science, Multidisciplinary;
   Physics, Applied
WE Science Citation Index Expanded (SCI-EXPANDED)
SC Science & Technology - Other Topics; Materials Science; Physics
GA X7O3L
UT WOS:001427191900007
OA gold
DA 2026-06-14
ER

PT J
AU Luchtenbelt, H
   Doelman, J
   Bos, A
   Daioglou, V
   Jägermeyr, J
   Mueller, C
   Stehfest, E
   van Vuuren, D
AF Luchtenbelt, Hermen
   Doelman, Jonathan
   Bos, Astrid
   Daioglou, Vassilis
   Jaegermeyr, Jonas
   Mueller, Christoph
   Stehfest, Elke
   van Vuuren, Detlef
TI Quantifying food security and mitigation risks consequential to climate
   change impacts on crop yields
SO ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS
LA English
DT Article
DE crop productivity; climate change impacts; food security; climate change
   mitigation; integrated assessment modeling
ID TEMPERATURE INCREASE; ELEVATED CO2; MODEL; AVAILABILITY; AGRICULTURE;
   SCENARIOS; RESPONSES
AB Climate change is expected to impact crop yields globally, with some regions benefiting from favorable conditions and CO2 fertilization, while others face adverse effects from altered precipitation and higher temperatures. Changes in crop yields can destabilize the global food system and pose challenges to food security. Moreover, crop production is crucial, as biofuels are becoming increasingly important contributors to climate change mitigation measures aimed at limiting global warming. This study uses the Integrated Model to Assess the Global Environment integrated assessment model framework to analyze different indicators related to food security and climate change mitigation under varying climate change impacts on crop yields. Twelve spatially explicit crop productivity projections were taken from the full archive of the Global Gridded Crop Model Intercomparison of 120 climate-crop model combinations, forced by CMIP6-based climate scenarios. The selection includes two average-performing climate-crop model combinations, two pessimistic combinations that perform one standard deviation below the mean, and two optimistic model combinations that perform one standard deviation above the mean. To single out the effect of climate change on productivity changes, we drew samples from two representative concentration pathways (RCP2.6 and RCP8.5). These productivity projections were applied within an otherwise uniform scenario (SSP2) and analyzed for their effect on total calorie demand, crop prices, and number of people at risk of undernourishment to quantify food security. Risks to climate change mitigation targets were explored by modeling the total bioenergy supply, emissions, and global mean temperature. The results revealed significant differences in the risk of food security and mitigation potential between different regions and climate change scenarios. Across scenarios, the crop area extent can vary up to 2 million km2 due to changing crop yields. The projected change in global hunger ranges from 60 to 160 million undernourished people, indicating uncertainty between climate and crop model combinations. Low-income regions are especially impacted because of their high sensitivity to changes in food prices. Global climate change mitigation ambitions can also deviate by the latter part of the 21st century, as changes in yields will impact biofuel production as well as agriculture, forestry and other land use emissions. The quantitative insights generated by this study highlight the need for global policy efforts to make the agricultural system more adaptive to climate change to handle potential negative impacts.
C1 [Luchtenbelt, Hermen; Doelman, Jonathan; Bos, Astrid; Daioglou, Vassilis; Stehfest, Elke; van Vuuren, Detlef] PBL Netherlands Environm Assessment Agcy, The Hague, Netherlands.
   [Doelman, Jonathan; van Vuuren, Detlef] Univ Utrecht, Copernicus Inst Sustainable Dev, Utrecht, South Africa.
   [Jaegermeyr, Jonas; Mueller, Christoph] Potsdam Inst Climate Impact Res PIK, Potsdam, Germany.
   [Jaegermeyr, Jonas] Columbia Univ, Earth Inst, New York, NY USA.
   [Jaegermeyr, Jonas] NASA, Goddard Inst Space Studies, New York, NY USA.
C3 Potsdam Institut fur Klimafolgenforschung; Columbia University; National
   Aeronautics & Space Administration (NASA); NASA Goddard Space Flight
   Center; Goddard Institute for Space Studies
RP Luchtenbelt, H (corresponding author), PBL Netherlands Environm Assessment Agcy, The Hague, Netherlands.
EM hermen.luchtenbelt@pbl.nl
RI van Vuuren, Detlef/A-4764-2009; Stehfest, Elke/AAZ-4121-2020; Daioglou,
   Vassilis/L-7262-2013; Müller, Christoph/E-4812-2016
OI van Vuuren, Detlef/0000-0003-0398-2831; Luchtenbelt,
   Hermen/0009-0001-2551-1582; Stehfest, Elke/0000-0003-3016-2679;
   Daioglou, Vassilis/0000-0002-6028-352X; Müller,
   Christoph/0000-0002-9491-3550; Doelman, Jonathan/0000-0002-6842-573X
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NR 56
TC 5
Z9 7
U1 23
U2 94
PU IOP Publishing Ltd
PI Bristol
PA No.2 The Distillery, Glassfields, Avon Street, Bristol, ENGLAND
SN 1748-9326
J9 ENVIRON RES LETT
JI Environ. Res. Lett.
PD JAN 1
PY 2025
VL 20
IS 1
AR 014001
DI 10.1088/1748-9326/ad97d3
PG 10
WC Environmental Sciences; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
WE Science Citation Index Expanded (SCI-EXPANDED)
SC Environmental Sciences & Ecology; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
GA O5A8D
UT WOS:001371260500001
OA Green Submitted, gold
DA 2026-06-14
ER

PT J
AU Guiet, J
   Bianchi, D
   Scherrer, KJN
   Heneghan, RF
   Galbraith, ED
AF Guiet, Jerome
   Bianchi, Daniele
   Scherrer, Kim J. N.
   Heneghan, Ryan F.
   Galbraith, Eric D.
TI BOATSv2: new ecological and economic features improve simulations of
   high seas catch and effort
SO GEOSCIENTIFIC MODEL DEVELOPMENT
LA English
DT Article
ID GLOBAL PATTERNS; MARINE ECOSYSTEMS; FISH PRODUCTION; SIZE; FISHERIES;
   MODEL; POPULATIONS
AB Climate change and industrial fishing are having profound effects on marine ecosystems. Numerical models of fish communities and their interaction with fishing can help assess the biogeochemical and socioeconomic dynamics of this coupled human-natural system and how it is changing. However, existing models have significant biases and do not include many processes known to be relevant. Here we describe an updated version of the BiOeconomic mArine Trophic Size-spectrum (BOATS) model for global fish and fishery studies. The model incorporates new ecological and economic features designed to ameliorate prior biases. Recent improvements include reduction of fish growth rates in iron-limited high-nutrient low-chlorophyll regions and the ability to simulate fishery management. Features added to BOATS here for the first time include (1) a separation of pelagic and demersal fish communities to provide an expanded representation of ecological diversity and (2) spatial variation of fishing costs and catchability for more realistic fishing effort dynamics. We also introduce a new set of observational diagnostics designed to evaluate the model beyond the boundary of large marine ecosystems (66 commonly adopted coastal ocean ecoregions). Following a multi-step parameter selection procedure, the updated BOATSv2 model shows comparable performance to the original model in coastal ecosystems, accurately simulating catch, biomass, and fishing effort, and markedly improves the representation of fisheries in the high seas, correcting for excessive high seas and deep-sea catches in the previous version. Improvements mainly stem from separating pelagic and demersal energy pathways, complemented by spatially variable catchability of pelagic fish and depth- and distance-dependent fishing costs. The updated model code is available for simulating both historical and future scenarios.
C1 [Guiet, Jerome; Bianchi, Daniele] Univ Calif Los Angeles, Dept Atmospher & Ocean Sci, Los Angeles, CA 90095 USA.
   [Scherrer, Kim J. N.] Univ Bergen, Dept Biol Sci, N-5020 Bergen, Norway.
   [Heneghan, Ryan F.] Griffith Univ, Sch Environm & Sci, Nathan, Qld, Australia.
   [Galbraith, Eric D.] McGill Univ, Dept Earth & Planetary Sci, Montreal, PQ, Canada.
   [Galbraith, Eric D.] Univ Autonoma Barcelona, Inst Ciencia & Tecnol Ambientals ICTA UAB, Barcelona 08193, Spain.
C3 University of California System; University of California Los Angeles;
   University of Bergen; Griffith University; McGill University; Autonomous
   University of Barcelona
RP Guiet, J (corresponding author), Univ Calif Los Angeles, Dept Atmospher & Ocean Sci, Los Angeles, CA 90095 USA.
EM jerome.c.guiet@gmail.com
RI Scherrer, Kim/V-3008-2019; Galbraith, Eric/F-9469-2014
OI Galbraith, Eric/0000-0003-4476-4232; Heneghan, Ryan/0000-0001-7626-1248
FU National Aeronautics and Space Administration; US National Aeronautics
   and Space Administration (NASA); Advanced Cyberinfrastructure
   Coordination Ecosystem Services and Support (ACCESS) program; National
   Science Foundation; Canada Research Chairs Program; Norwegian Research
   Council
FX Daniele Bianchi and Jerome Guiet acknowledge support from the US
   National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA). Computational
   resources were provided by the Expanse system at the San Diego
   Supercomputer Center from the Advanced Cyberinfrastructure Coordination
   Ecosystem Services and Support (ACCESS) program, which is supported by
   National Science Foundation. Eric D. Galbraith was supported by the
   Canada Research Chairs Program. Kim J. N. Scherrer was supported by the
   Norwegian Research Council.
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TC 4
Z9 4
U1 1
U2 4
PU COPERNICUS GESELLSCHAFT MBH
PI GOTTINGEN
PA BAHNHOFSALLEE 1E, GOTTINGEN, 37081, GERMANY
SN 1991-959X
EI 1991-9603
J9 GEOSCI MODEL DEV
JI Geosci. Model Dev.
PD NOV 27
PY 2024
VL 17
IS 22
BP 8421
EP 8454
DI 10.5194/gmd-17-8421-2024
PG 34
WC Geosciences, Multidisciplinary
WE Science Citation Index Expanded (SCI-EXPANDED)
SC Geology
GA N4D8V
UT WOS:001363873100001
OA Green Submitted, gold
DA 2026-06-14
ER

PT J
AU Ambrósio, G
   Doelman, JC
   Schipper, AM
   Stehfest, E
   van Vuuren, D
AF Ambrosio, Geanderson
   Doelman, Jonathan C.
   Schipper, Aafke M.
   Stehfest, Elke
   van Vuuren, Detlef
TI Global sustainability scenarios lead to regionally different outcomes
   for terrestrial biodiversity
SO ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS
LA English
DT Article
DE biodiversity; scenarios; climate change mitigation; species abundance;
   sustainable development goals
ID CLIMATE-CHANGE; LAND-USE; MODEL
AB Mitigating climate change (CC) and reversing biodiversity decline are urgent and interconnected global priorities. Strategies to address both crises must consider the relationships, synergies and trade-offs between key response measures, including sustainable production and consumption patterns, protected areas (PAs) and climate mitigation policy (CP). In this paper, we review a large set of scenarios (n = 96) from the Integrated Model to Assess the Global Environment (IMAGE) describing future development of land use, greenhouse gas emissions and their impact on CC and biodiversity. We calculate the global mean temperature increase (GMTI) and the Mean Species Abundance (MSA) of plants, a metric indicative of local terrestrial biodiversity intactness. The set includes scenarios with and without specific CP to address CC, PA for biodiversity and demand and supply sustainability measures such as increased energy efficiency and reduced meat consumption. Our findings indicate that scenarios with integrated measures can prevent biodiversity loss at the global scale, yet with clear regional differences. By 2050, 15 out of 30 (50%) scenarios with at least 30% of global land as PAs show positive MSA changes in grasslands and tropical non-forests (Grass & TnF), but only 1 (3%) does so in tropical forests (TF). We demonstrate that pasture and food/feed crops are the main drivers of MSA loss in Grass & TnF and that scenarios with high levels of PAs prevent land conversion and increase biodiversity. By 2100, 28 out of 46 (60%) scenarios with mitigation measures to restrict CC to 2 degrees C or less in 2100 result in positive MSA changes in TF, but only 13 (28%) do so in Grass & TnF, reflecting the larger impacts of land use change in the latter region. These results underscore the importance of time and regionally-tailored approaches to address the biodiversity and CC crises.
C1 [Ambrosio, Geanderson; van Vuuren, Detlef] Univ Utrecht, Copernicus Inst Sustainable Dev, Utrecht, Netherlands.
   [Doelman, Jonathan C.; Schipper, Aafke M.; Stehfest, Elke; van Vuuren, Detlef] PBL Netherlands Environm Assessment Agcy, The Hague, Netherlands.
   [Schipper, Aafke M.] Radboud Univ Nijmegen, Radboud Inst Biol & Environm Sci RIBES, Dept Environm Sci, Nijmegen, Netherlands.
C3 Utrecht University; Radboud University Nijmegen
RP Ambrosio, G (corresponding author), Univ Utrecht, Copernicus Inst Sustainable Dev, Utrecht, Netherlands.
EM g.e.ambrosio@uu.nl
RI Schipper, Aafke/C-2758-2011; Stehfest, Elke/AAZ-4121-2020; van Vuuren,
   Detlef/A-4764-2009
OI Doelman, Jonathan/0000-0002-6842-573X; Stehfest,
   Elke/0000-0003-3016-2679; Ambrósio, Geanderson/0000-0001-6285-2282; van
   Vuuren, Detlef/0000-0003-0398-2831
FU Excellent Science Programme [H2020-EU.1.1, 819566]; PICASSO-European
   Research Council (ERC)
FX This work has been funded through the PICASSO-European Research Council
   (ERC) project under the H2020-EU.1.1 Excellent Science Programme under
   Grant No. 819566. The funders had no role in study design, data
   collection and analysis, publication decisions, or manuscript
   preparation.
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NR 48
TC 5
Z9 6
U1 3
U2 24
PU IOP Publishing Ltd
PI Bristol
PA No.2 The Distillery, Glassfields, Avon Street, Bristol, ENGLAND
SN 1748-9326
J9 ENVIRON RES LETT
JI Environ. Res. Lett.
PD OCT 1
PY 2024
VL 19
IS 10
AR 104055
DI 10.1088/1748-9326/ad73eb
PG 11
WC Environmental Sciences; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
WE Science Citation Index Expanded (SCI-EXPANDED)
SC Environmental Sciences & Ecology; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
GA F2Q3V
UT WOS:001308315300001
OA Green Submitted, gold
DA 2026-06-14
ER

PT J
AU Edelenbosch, OY
   Hof, AF
   van den Berg, M
   de Boer, HS
   Chen, HH
   Daioglou, V
   Dekker, MM
   Doelman, JC
   den Elzen, MGJ
   Harmsen, M
   Mikropoulos, S
   van Sluisveld, MAE
   Stehfest, E
   Tagomori, IS
   van Zeist, WJ
   van Vuuren, DP
AF Edelenbosch, Oreane Y.
   Hof, Andries F.
   van den Berg, Maarten
   de Boer, Harmen Sytze
   Chen, Hsing-Hsuan
   Daioglou, Vassilis
   Dekker, Mark M.
   Doelman, Jonathan C.
   den Elzen, Michel G. J.
   Harmsen, Mathijs
   Mikropoulos, Stratos
   van Sluisveld, Mariesse A. E.
   Stehfest, Elke
   Tagomori, Isabela S.
   van Zeist, Willem-Jan
   van Vuuren, Detlef P.
TI Reducing sectoral hard-to-abate emissions to limit reliance on carbon
   dioxide removal
SO NATURE CLIMATE CHANGE
LA English
DT Article
ID CO2 EMISSIONS; LONG-TERM; ENERGY; MODELS
AB To reach net-zero greenhouse gas targets, carbon dioxide removal (CDR) technologies are required to compensate for residual emissions in the hard-to-abate sectors. However, dependencies on CDR technologies involve environmental, technical and social risks, particularly related to increased land requirements for afforestation and bioenergy crops. Here, using scenarios consistent with the 1.5 degrees C target, we show that demand and technological interventions can substantially lower emission levels in four hard-to-abate sectors (industry, agriculture, buildings and transport) and reduce reliance on the use of bioenergy with carbon capture and storage. Specifically, demand measures and technology-oriented measures could limit peak annual bioenergy with carbon capture and storage use to 0.5-2.2 GtCO2e per year and 1.9-7.0 GtCO2e per year, respectively, compared with 10.3 GtCO2e per year in the default 1.5 degrees C scenario. Dietary change plays a critical role in the demand measures given its large share in residual agricultural emissions.
   Moving towards net-zero emissions requires carbon dioxide removal (CDR) technologies, which bring environmental and socioeconomic risks. This study reveals that demand and technological interventions in hard-to-abate sectors help to achieve net-zero targets with less reliance on CDR.
C1 [Edelenbosch, Oreane Y.; Hof, Andries F.; Chen, Hsing-Hsuan; Daioglou, Vassilis; Dekker, Mark M.; Harmsen, Mathijs; Mikropoulos, Stratos; van Vuuren, Detlef P.] Univ Utrecht, Copernicus Inst Sustainable Dev, Utrecht, Netherlands.
   [Hof, Andries F.] Natl Inst Publ Hlth & Environm RIVM, Bilthoven, Netherlands.
   [van den Berg, Maarten; de Boer, Harmen Sytze; Daioglou, Vassilis; Dekker, Mark M.; Doelman, Jonathan C.; den Elzen, Michel G. J.; Harmsen, Mathijs; van Sluisveld, Mariesse A. E.; Stehfest, Elke; Tagomori, Isabela S.; van Vuuren, Detlef P.] PBL Netherlands Environm Assessment Agcy, The Hague, Netherlands.
   [den Elzen, Michel G. J.] Vrije Univ Amsterdam, Inst Environm Studies IVM, Amsterdam, Netherlands.
   [van Zeist, Willem-Jan] Wageningen Univ & Res, Wageningen Econ Res, The Hague, Netherlands.
C3 Utrecht University; Netherlands National Institute for Public Health &
   the Environment; Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam; Wageningen University &
   Research
RP Edelenbosch, OY (corresponding author), Univ Utrecht, Copernicus Inst Sustainable Dev, Utrecht, Netherlands.
EM o.y.edelenbosch@uu.nl
RI Daioglou, Vassilis/L-7262-2013; den Elzen, Michel/M-2779-2016; Hof,
   Andries/AFB-4199-2022; Stehfest, Elke/AAZ-4121-2020; van Vuuren,
   Detlef/A-4764-2009; van Sluisveld, Mariësse/AAF-7452-2021
OI Daioglou, Vassilis/0000-0002-6028-352X; den Elzen,
   Michel/0000-0002-5128-8150; van den Berg, Maarten/0000-0001-9649-7995;
   Chen, Hsing-Hsuan/0000-0003-1671-3331; Edelenbosch,
   Oreane/0000-0002-6588-5255; Hof, Andries/0000-0002-7568-5038; Schmidt
   Tagomori, Isabela/0000-0002-0469-6055; Doelman,
   Jonathan/0000-0002-6842-573X; Dekker, Mark/0000-0002-3543-6889; 
FU European Union [101056873, 101056868]
FX This work was supported by the European Union's Horizon Europe
   programme, grant agreement no. 101056873 (I.S.T. and D.P.v.V.),
   'Enabling and Leveraging Climate Action towards Net Zero Emissions'
   (ELEVATE) and grant agreement no. 101056868 (O.Y.E., V.D., M.v.S. and
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NR 58
TC 68
Z9 73
U1 12
U2 79
PU NATURE PORTFOLIO
PI BERLIN
PA HEIDELBERGER PLATZ 3, BERLIN, 14197, GERMANY
SN 1758-678X
EI 1758-6798
J9 NAT CLIM CHANGE
JI Nat. Clim. Chang.
PD JUL
PY 2024
VL 14
IS 7
DI 10.1038/s41558-024-02025-y
EA JUN 2024
PG 20
WC Environmental Sciences; Environmental Studies; Meteorology & Atmospheric
   Sciences
WE Science Citation Index Expanded (SCI-EXPANDED); Social Science Citation Index (SSCI)
SC Environmental Sciences & Ecology; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
GA YS4V9
UT WOS:001242154800004
OA Green Submitted, Green Published, hybrid
DA 2026-06-14
ER


PT J
AU Shah, K
   Abdeljawad, T
AF Shah, Kamal
   Abdeljawad, Thabet
TI On complex fractal-fractional order mathematical modeling of CO
   2 emanations from energy sector
SO PHYSICA SCRIPTA
LA English
DT Article
DE CO2 emission model; FFD; mathematical analysis; Stability theory;
   numerical interpretations
ID GROWTH
AB This research work is devoted to undertake a mathematical model for emissions of carbon dioxide (CO2) from energy sector using the concept of fractals-fractional differential (FFD) operator. Here, it should be kept in mind that as the population is expanding, so the need of energy increasing day by day. Burning fossil fuels accounts for a sizable amount of the world's energy production, which increases the concentration of CO2 in the atmosphere and causes the global warming. It's critical to reduce CO2 emissions from the energy industry. Therefore, via the use of FFD operator, we investigate a mathematical model which is addressing the mentioned process. We deduce some qualitative results regarding the existence of such models in real life using mathematical analysis. The aforesaid analysis is based on some fixed points approaches. Additionally, some analysis devoted to stability is also derived for the proposed model. In addition, a numerical algorithms based on modified Euler method is constructed to simulate the results graphically.
C1 [Shah, Kamal; Abdeljawad, Thabet] Prince Sultan Univ, Dept Math & Sci, POB 66833, Riyadh 11586, Saudi Arabia.
   [Shah, Kamal] Univ Malakand, Dept Math, Chakdara Dir L, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa 18000, Pakistan.
   [Abdeljawad, Thabet] China Med Univ, Dept Med Res, Taichung 40402, Taiwan.
   [Abdeljawad, Thabet] Kyung Hee Univ, Dept Math, 26 Kyungheedae Ro, Seoul 02447, South Korea.
   [Abdeljawad, Thabet] Sefako Makgatho Hlth Sci Univ, Sch Sci & Technol, Dept Math & Appl Math, Ga Rankuwa, South Africa.
C3 Prince Sultan University; University of Malakand; China Medical
   University Taiwan; Kyung Hee University; Sefako Makgatho Health Sciences
   University
RP Shah, K; Abdeljawad, T (corresponding author), Prince Sultan Univ, Dept Math & Sci, POB 66833, Riyadh 11586, Saudi Arabia.; Shah, K (corresponding author), Univ Malakand, Dept Math, Chakdara Dir L, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa 18000, Pakistan.; Abdeljawad, T (corresponding author), China Med Univ, Dept Med Res, Taichung 40402, Taiwan.; Abdeljawad, T (corresponding author), Kyung Hee Univ, Dept Math, 26 Kyungheedae Ro, Seoul 02447, South Korea.; Abdeljawad, T (corresponding author), Sefako Makgatho Hlth Sci Univ, Sch Sci & Technol, Dept Math & Appl Math, Ga Rankuwa, South Africa.
EM kshah@psu.edu.sa; tabdeljawad@psu.edu.sa
RI Shah, Kamal/S-8662-2016; Abdeljawad, Thabet/T-8298-2018
OI Shah, Kamal/0000-0002-8851-4844; Abdeljawad, Thabet/0000-0002-8889-3768
FU Prince Sultan University; TAS research lab
FX Authors appreciate Prince Sultan University for support through TAS
   research lab.
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NR 36
TC 30
Z9 34
U1 0
U2 13
PU IOP Publishing Ltd
PI BRISTOL
PA TEMPLE CIRCUS, TEMPLE WAY, BRISTOL BS1 6BE, ENGLAND
SN 0031-8949
EI 1402-4896
J9 PHYS SCRIPTA
JI Phys. Scr.
PD JAN 1
PY 2024
VL 99
IS 1
AR 015226
DI 10.1088/1402-4896/ad1286
PG 14
WC Physics, Multidisciplinary
WE Science Citation Index Expanded (SCI-EXPANDED)
SC Physics
GA CT2H2
UT WOS:001127420300001
OA hybrid
DA 2026-06-14
ER


PT J
AU Kok, MTJ
   Meijer, JR
   van Zeist, WJ
   Hilbers, JP
   Immovilli, M
   Janse, JH
   Stehfest, E
   Bakkenes, M
   Tabeau, A
   Schipper, AM
   Alkemade, R
AF Kok, Marcel T. J.
   Meijer, Johan R.
   van Zeist, Willem-Jan
   Hilbers, Jelle P.
   Immovilli, Marco
   Janse, Jan H.
   Stehfest, Elke
   Bakkenes, Michel
   Tabeau, Andrzej
   Schipper, Aafke M.
   Alkemade, Rob
TI Assessing ambitious nature conservation strategies in a below 2-degree
   and food-secure world
SO BIOLOGICAL CONSERVATION
LA English
DT Article
DE Nature conservation; Half earth; Sharing the planet; Climate change;
   Food security; Solution-oriented scenarios; Biodiversity; Nature's
   contribution to people (NCP)
ID CLIMATE-CHANGE MITIGATION; LAND-USE CHANGE; BIODIVERSITY CONSERVATION;
   SUSTAINABLE INTENSIFICATION; GLOBAL ASSESSMENT; HALF; AGRICULTURE;
   CHALLENGES; MODEL; SCENARIOS
AB Global biodiversity is projected to further decline under a wide range of future socio-economic development pathways, even in sustainability-oriented scenarios. This raises the question how biodiversity can be put on a path to recovery, the core challenge for the implementation of the CBD Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework. We designed two ambitious global conservation strategies, 'Half Earth' (HE) and 'Sharing the Planet' (SP), and evaluated their ability to restore terrestrial and freshwater biodiversity and to provide nature's con-tributions to people (NCP), while also limiting global warming below 2 degrees and ensuring food security. We applied the integrated assessment framework IMAGE with the GLOBIO biodiversity model, using the 'Middle of the Road' Shared Socio-economic Pathway (SSP2) with its projected human population growth as baseline. We found that the HE strategy performs generally better for terrestrial biodiversity (biodiversity intactness (MSA), Area of Habitat, Living Planet Index, Red List Index) in currently still natural regions. The SP strategy yields more improvements for biodiversity in human-used areas, for freshwater biodiversity and for regulating NCP (pest control, pollination, erosion control, water quality). However, both strategies were insufficient to restore biodiversity and corresponded with considerable increases in food security risks and global temperature. Only when we combined the conservation strategies with a portfolio of 'integrated sustainability measures', including climate change mitigation and reductions of food waste and animal product consumption, our scenarios resulted in a restoration of biodiversity and NCP while keeping global warming below two degrees and food security risks below the baseline projection.
C1 [Kok, Marcel T. J.; Meijer, Johan R.; van Zeist, Willem-Jan; Hilbers, Jelle P.; Immovilli, Marco; Janse, Jan H.; Stehfest, Elke; Bakkenes, Michel; Schipper, Aafke M.; Alkemade, Rob] PBL Netherlands Environm Assessment Agcy, The Hague, Netherlands.
   [van Zeist, Willem-Jan; Tabeau, Andrzej] Wageningen Econ Res, The Hague, Netherlands.
   [Hilbers, Jelle P.; Schipper, Aafke M.] Radboud Univ Nijmegen, Dept Environm Sci, Nijmegen, Netherlands.
   [Immovilli, Marco] Wageningen Univ & Res, Sociol Dev & Change, Wageningen, Netherlands.
   [Janse, Jan H.] NIOO KNAW, Netherlands Inst Ecol, Wageningen, Netherlands.
   [Alkemade, Rob] Wageningen Univ & Res, Environm Syst Anal Grp, Wageningen, Netherlands.
C3 Wageningen University & Research; Radboud University Nijmegen;
   Wageningen University & Research; Royal Netherlands Academy of Arts &
   Sciences; Netherlands Institute of Ecology (NIOO-KNAW); Wageningen
   University & Research
RP Kok, MTJ (corresponding author), PBL Netherlands Environm Assessment Agcy, The Hague, Netherlands.
EM marcel.kok@pbl.nl
RI ; Stehfest, Elke/AAZ-4121-2020; Janse, Jan/OUI-7427-2025; Tabeau,
   Andrzej/AAE-8214-2019; Immovilli, Marco/KII-1860-2024; Alkemade,
   R./U-3663-2017; Schipper, Aafke/C-2758-2011
OI Meijer, Johan/0000-0002-1219-7694; 
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NR 165
TC 18
Z9 21
U1 1
U2 39
PU ELSEVIER SCI LTD
PI London
PA 125 London Wall, London, ENGLAND
SN 0006-3207
EI 1873-2917
J9 BIOL CONSERV
JI Biol. Conserv.
PD AUG
PY 2023
VL 284
AR 110068
DI 10.1016/j.biocon.2023.110068
EA JUN 2023
PG 18
WC Biodiversity Conservation; Ecology; Environmental Sciences
WE Science Citation Index Expanded (SCI-EXPANDED)
SC Biodiversity & Conservation; Environmental Sciences & Ecology
GA M4RB8
UT WOS:001030087800001
OA Green Submitted, Green Published, hybrid
DA 2026-06-14
ER



PT J
AU Stegmann, P
   Daioglou, V
   Londo, M
   van Vuuren, DP
   Junginger, M
AF Stegmann, Paul
   Daioglou, Vassilis
   Londo, Marc
   van Vuuren, Detlef P. P.
   Junginger, Martin
TI Plastic futures and their CO2 emissions
SO NATURE
LA English
DT Article
ID INDUSTRY; DEMAND; WASTE; FUEL
AB Plastics show the strongest production growth of all bulk materials and are already responsible for 4.5% of global greenhouse gas emissions(1,2). If no new policies are implemented, we project a doubling of global plastic demand by 2050 and more than a tripling by 2100, with an almost equivalent increase in CO2 emissions. Here we analyse three alternative CO2 emission-mitigation pathways for the global plastics sector until 2100, covering the entire life cycle from production to waste management. Our results show that, through bio-based carbon sequestration in plastic products, a combination of biomass use and landfilling can achieve negative emissions in the long term; however, this involves continued reliance on primary feedstock. A circular economy approach without an additional bioeconomy push reduces resource consumption by 30% and achieves 10% greater emission reductions before 2050 while reducing the potential of negative emissions in the long term. A circular bioeconomy approach combining recycling with higher biomass use could ultimately turn the sector into a net carbon sink, while at the same time phasing out landfilling and reducing resource consumption. Our work improves the representation of material flows and the circular economy in global energy and emission models, and provides insight into long-term dynamics in the plastics sector.
C1 [Stegmann, Paul; Daioglou, Vassilis; Londo, Marc; van Vuuren, Detlef P. P.; Junginger, Martin] Univ Utrecht, Utrecht, Netherlands.
   [Stegmann, Paul; Daioglou, Vassilis; van Vuuren, Detlef P. P.] PBL Netherlands Environm Assessment Agcy, The Hague, Netherlands.
   [Stegmann, Paul] Netherlands Org Appl Sci Res, TNO, Utrecht, Netherlands.
   [Londo, Marc] Netherlands Assoc Renewable Energy, Utrecht, Netherlands.
C3 Utrecht University; Netherlands Organization Applied Science Research
RP Stegmann, P; Daioglou, V (corresponding author), Univ Utrecht, Utrecht, Netherlands.; Stegmann, P; Daioglou, V (corresponding author), PBL Netherlands Environm Assessment Agcy, The Hague, Netherlands.; Stegmann, P (corresponding author), Netherlands Org Appl Sci Res, TNO, Utrecht, Netherlands.
EM paul.stegmann@tno.nl; vassilis.daioglou@pbl.nl
RI ; Londo, Marc/AAQ-7905-2020; van Vuuren, Detlef/A-4764-2009; Daioglou,
   Vassilis/L-7262-2013; Junginger, Martin/A-2687-2009
OI Stegmann, Paul/0000-0003-2683-468X; Londo, Marc/0000-0003-1476-0003; van
   Vuuren, Detlef/0000-0003-0398-2831; Daioglou,
   Vassilis/0000-0002-6028-352X; 
FU Topconsortia voor Kennis en Innovatie programme BioBased Economy; Dutch
   Ministry of Economic Affairs [TKI-BBE-1601]; project SHAPE through
   AXIS/JPI Climate; FORMAS; FFG/BMWFW; DLR/BMBF; NWO; European Union
   [776608]; European Research Council [ERC-CG 819566]
FX The funding of this research is supported by the Topconsortia voor
   Kennis en Innovatie programme BioBased Economy and awarded by the Dutch
   Ministry of Economic Affairs (Project TKI-BBE-1601 Impact assessment BBE
   economy). The project partners include Utrecht University, Netherlands
   Organization for applied scientific research (ECN division), Nouryon,
   Avantium, RWE and Staatsbosbeheer. The contributions of D.P.v.V. and
   V.D. have been partially funded through the project SHAPE, funded
   through AXIS/JPI Climate and by FORMAS (SE), FFG/BMWFW (AT), DLR/BMBF
   and NWO (NL) and with co-funding by the European Union (grant no.
   776608). The contribution of D.P.v.V. also benefited from funding from
   the European Research Council under grant no. ERC-CG 819566 (PICASSO).
   We thank F. Teunissen for improving the quality of English language and
   T. Markus for supporting completion of the figures.
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NR 51
TC 440
Z9 500
U1 41
U2 496
PU NATURE PORTFOLIO
PI BERLIN
PA HEIDELBERGER PLATZ 3, BERLIN, 14197, GERMANY
SN 0028-0836
EI 1476-4687
J9 NATURE
JI Nature
PD DEC 8
PY 2022
VL 612
IS 7939
BP 272
EP +
DI 10.1038/s41586-022-05422-5
PG 18
WC Multidisciplinary Sciences
WE Science Citation Index Expanded (SCI-EXPANDED)
SC Science & Technology - Other Topics
GA 8H2DC
UT WOS:000920844800006
PM 36477132
HC Y
HP N
DA 2026-06-14
ER

PT J
AU Mandley, SJ
   Wicke, B
   Junginger, M
   van Vuuren, DP
   Daioglou, V
AF Mandley, Steven James
   Wicke, Birka
   Junginger, Martin
   van Vuuren, Detlef P.
   Daioglou, Vassilis
TI The implications of geopolitical, socioeconomic, and regulatory
   constraints on European bioenergy imports and associated greenhouse gas
   emissions to 2050
SO BIOFUELS BIOPRODUCTS & BIOREFINING-BIOFPR
LA English
DT Article
DE bioenergy; 2050; Europe; trade; imports; RED II; trade barriers
ID ENERGY; LOGISTICS; DEMAND; CURVES
AB Modern sustainable bioenergy can contribute toward mid-century European energy decarbonization targets by replacing fossil fuels. Fulfilling this role would require access to increased volumes of bioenergy, with extra-EU imports projected to play an important part. Access to this resource on the international marketplace is not governed by Europe's economic competitiveness alone. This study investigates geopolitical, socioeconomic, and regulatory considerations that can influence Europe's bioenergy imports but that are so far underexplored. The effect of these constraints on European import volumes, sourcing regions, mitigation potential, and their implications for European and global emissions is projected to the year 2050 using a global integrated assessment model. The projections show that Europe can significantly increase imports from 1.5 EJ year(-1) in 2020 to 8.1 EJ year(-1) by 2050 whilst remaining compliant with Renewables Energy Directive recast II (RED II) greenhouse gas (GHG) criteria. Under these conditions, bioenergy could provide annual GHG mitigation of 0.44 GtCO(2)eq. in 2050. However, achieving this would require a structural diversification of trading partners from the present. Furthermore, socioeconomic and logistical concerns may limit the feasibility of some of the projected major sourcing regions, including Africa and South America. Failure to overcome these challenges within supplying regions could limit European imports by 60%, reducing annual mitigation to 0.16 GtCO(2)eq. in 2050. From a global perspective, regions with a comparatively carbon-intense energy system offer an alternative destination for globally traded biomass that could increase the mitigative potential of bioenergy. (c) 2022 The Authors. Biofuels, Bioproducts and Biorefining published by Society of Industrial Chemistry and John Wiley & Sons Ltd.
C1 [Mandley, Steven James; Junginger, Martin; van Vuuren, Detlef P.; Daioglou, Vassilis] Univ Utrecht, Copernicus Inst Sustainable Dev, Princetonlaan 8a, NL-3584 CB Utrecht, Netherlands.
   [Mandley, Steven James; van Vuuren, Detlef P.; Daioglou, Vassilis] Netherlands Environm Assessment Agcy, Planbur Leefomgeving PBL, The Hague, Netherlands.
   [Wicke, Birka] Radboud Univ Nijmegen, Radboud Inst Biol & Environm Sci, Dept Environm Sci, Nijmegen, Netherlands.
C3 Utrecht University; Netherlands National Institute for Public Health &
   the Environment; Radboud University Nijmegen
RP Mandley, SJ (corresponding author), Univ Utrecht, Copernicus Inst Sustainable Dev, Princetonlaan 8a, NL-3584 CB Utrecht, Netherlands.
EM s.j.mandley@uu.nl
RI Junginger, Martin/A-2687-2009; van Vuuren, Detlef/A-4764-2009; Daioglou,
   Vassilis/L-7262-2013; Wicke, Birka/D-3102-2011
OI van Vuuren, Detlef/0000-0003-0398-2831; mandley,
   Steven/0000-0002-0353-3908
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NR 44
TC 8
Z9 10
U1 0
U2 5
PU WILEY
PI HOBOKEN
PA 111 RIVER ST, HOBOKEN 07030-5774, NJ USA
SN 1932-104X
EI 1932-1031
J9 BIOFUEL BIOPROD BIOR
JI Biofuels Bioprod. Biorefining
PD NOV
PY 2022
VL 16
IS 6
BP 1551
EP 1567
DI 10.1002/bbb.2421
EA AUG 2022
PG 17
WC Biotechnology & Applied Microbiology; Energy & Fuels
WE Science Citation Index Expanded (SCI-EXPANDED)
SC Biotechnology & Applied Microbiology; Energy & Fuels
GA 5W4FE
UT WOS:000847710700001
OA Green Submitted, hybrid
DA 2026-06-14
ER

PT J
AU Xia, LL
   Robock, A
   Scherrer, K
   Harrison, CS
   Bodirsky, BL
   Weindl, I
   Jägermeyr, J
   Bardeen, CG
   Toon, OB
   Heneghan, R
AF Xia, Lili
   Robock, Alan
   Scherrer, Kim
   Harrison, Cheryl S.
   Bodirsky, Benjamin Leon
   Weindl, Isabelle
   Jagermeyr, Jonas
   Bardeen, Charles G.
   Toon, Owen B.
   Heneghan, Ryan
TI Global food insecurity and famine from reduced crop, marine fishery and
   livestock production due to climate disruption from nuclear war soot
   injection
SO NATURE FOOD
LA English
DT Article
ID SOUTH-ASIA; CONSEQUENCES; MODEL; IMPACTS
AB Calorie availability and extent of food shortages for each nation are estimated following regional or global nuclear war, including impacts on major crops, livestock and fishery production.
   Atmospheric soot loadings from nuclear weapon detonation would cause disruptions to the Earth's climate, limiting terrestrial and aquatic food production. Here, we use climate, crop and fishery models to estimate the impacts arising from six scenarios of stratospheric soot injection, predicting the total food calories available in each nation post-war after stored food is consumed. In quantifying impacts away from target areas, we demonstrate that soot injections larger than 5 Tg would lead to mass food shortages, and livestock and aquatic food production would be unable to compensate for reduced crop output, in almost all countries. Adaptation measures such as food waste reduction would have limited impact on increasing available calories. We estimate more than 2 billion people could die from nuclear war between India and Pakistan, and more than 5 billion could die from a war between the United States and Russia-underlining the importance of global cooperation in preventing nuclear war.
C1 [Xia, Lili; Robock, Alan] Rutgers State Univ, Dept Environm Sci, New Brunswick, NJ 08901 USA.
   [Scherrer, Kim] Univ Autonoma Barcelona, Inst Ciencia & Tecnol Ambientals, Cerdanyola Del Valles, Spain.
   [Scherrer, Kim] Univ Bergen, Dept Biol Sci, Bergen, Norway.
   [Harrison, Cheryl S.] Louisiana State Univ, Ctr Computat & Technol, Dept Ocean & Coastal Sci, Baton Rouge, LA 70803 USA.
   [Bodirsky, Benjamin Leon; Weindl, Isabelle; Jagermeyr, Jonas] Potsdam Inst Climate Impact Res, Potsdam, Germany.
   [Bodirsky, Benjamin Leon] World Vegetable Ctr, Tainan, Taiwan.
   [Jagermeyr, Jonas] NASA, Goddard Inst Space Studies, New York, NY 10025 USA.
   [Jagermeyr, Jonas] Columbia Univ, Ctr Climate Syst Res, New York, NY USA.
   [Bardeen, Charles G.] Natl Ctr Atmospher Res, POB 3000, Boulder, CO 80307 USA.
   [Toon, Owen B.] Univ Colorado, Dept Atmospher & Ocean Sci, Lab Atmospher & Space Phys, Boulder, CO 80309 USA.
   [Heneghan, Ryan] Queensland Univ Technol, Sch Math Sci, Brisbane, Qld, Australia.
C3 Rutgers University System; Rutgers University New Brunswick; Autonomous
   University of Barcelona; University of Bergen; Louisiana State
   University System; Louisiana State University; Potsdam Institut fur
   Klimafolgenforschung; National Aeronautics & Space Administration
   (NASA); NASA Goddard Space Flight Center; Goddard Institute for Space
   Studies; Columbia University; National Center Atmospheric Research
   (NCAR) - USA; University of Colorado System; University of Colorado
   Boulder; Queensland University of Technology (QUT)
RP Xia, LL (corresponding author), Rutgers State Univ, Dept Environm Sci, New Brunswick, NJ 08901 USA.
EM lilixia@envsci.rutgers.edu
RI ; Scherrer, Kim/V-3008-2019; Harrison, Cheryl/IWV-0053-2023; Robock,
   Alan/B-6385-2016; Bodirsky, Benjamin Leon/ABH-9170-2020; TOON,
   OWEN/NBX-4563-2025; Xia, Lili/AAD-9398-2019
OI Heneghan, Ryan/0000-0001-7626-1248; Scherrer, Kim/0000-0001-6198-5745;
   Harrison, Cheryl/0000-0003-4544-947X; Jägermeyr,
   Jonas/0000-0002-8368-0018; Robock, Alan/0000-0002-6319-5656; Bodirsky,
   Benjamin Leon/0000-0002-8242-6712; TOON, OWEN/0000-0002-1394-3062;
   Weindl, Isabelle/0000-0002-7651-6930; 
FU Open Philanthropy Project; European Research Council under the European
   Union's Horizon 2020 Research and Innovation Programme [682602];
   National Science Foundation [AGS-2017113, ENG-2028541]; Research Council
   of Norway [326896]; NASA GISS Climate Impacts Group; European Union's
   Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme [776479, 821010]; German
   Federal Ministry of Education and Research (BMBF) [031B0787B]; H2020
   Societal Challenges Programme [821010, 776479] Funding Source: H2020
   Societal Challenges Programme
FX This study was supported by the Open Philanthropy Project, with partial
   support from the European Research Council under the European Union's
   Horizon 2020 Research and Innovation Programme under grant agreement
   682602. A.R. and L.X. were supported by National Science Foundation
   grants AGS-2017113 and ENG-2028541. K.S. was supported by the European
   Research Council under the European Union's Horizon 2020 Research and
   Innovation Programme under grant agreement 682602 and Research Council
   of Norway project 326896. C.S.H., C.G.B. and O.B.T. were supported by
   the Open Philanthropy Project. J.J. was supported by the NASA GISS
   Climate Impacts Group and the Open Philanthropy Project. B.L.B. has
   received funding from the European Union's Horizon 2020 research and
   innovation programme under grant agreement number 776479 (COACCH) and
   821010 (CASCADES). I.W. and B.L.B. have received funding from the German
   Federal Ministry of Education and Research (BMBF) in the context of the
   project 'FOCUS-Food security and sustained coastal livelihoods through
   linking land and ocean' (031B0787B). R.H. was supported by the European
   Research Council under the European Union's Horizon 2020 Research and
   Innovation Programme under grant agreement 682602. We thank I. Helfand
   for valuable suggestions on the work and D. Lombardozzi for supporting
   CLM5crop simulations.
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NR 51
TC 271
Z9 297
U1 7
U2 51
PU NATURE PORTFOLIO
PI BERLIN
PA HEIDELBERGER PLATZ 3, BERLIN, 14197, GERMANY
EI 2662-1355
J9 NAT FOOD
JI Nat. Food
PD AUG
PY 2022
VL 3
IS 8
BP 586
EP 596
DI 10.1038/s43016-022-00573-0
EA AUG 2022
PG 11
WC Food Science & Technology
WE Science Citation Index Expanded (SCI-EXPANDED)
SC Food Science & Technology
GA 3V6VZ
UT WOS:000840603400002
PM 37118594
OA Green Submitted, hybrid
HC Y
HP N
DA 2026-06-14
ER

PT J
AU Le Mézo, P
   Guiet, JM
   Scherrer, K
   Bianchi, D
   Galbraith, E
AF Le Mezo, Priscilla
   Guiet, Jerome
   Scherrer, Kim
   Bianchi, Daniele
   Galbraith, Eric
TI Global nutrient cycling by commercially targeted marine fish
SO BIOGEOSCIENCES
LA English
DT Article
ID PHOSPHORUS; ECOSYSTEM; NITROGEN; CARBON; OCEAN; STOICHIOMETRY;
   EXCRETION; COMMUNITIES; DEPOSITION; FISHERIES
AB Throughout the course of their lives fish ingest food containing essential elements, including nitrogen (N), phosphorus (P), and iron (Fe). Some of these elements are retained in the fish body to build new biomass, which acts as a stored reservoir of nutrients, while the rest is excreted or egested, providing a recycling flux to water. Fishing activity has modified the fish biomass distribution worldwide and consequently may have altered fish-mediated nutrient cycling, but this possibility remains largely unassessed, mainly due to the difficulty of estimating global fish biomass and metabolic rates. Here we quantify the role of commercially targeted marine fish between 10 g and 100 kg (CTF10 g100 kg) in the cycling of N, P, and Fe in the global ocean and its change due to fishing activity, by using a global size-spectrum model of marine fish populations calibrated to observations of fish catches. Our results show that the amount of nutrients potentially stored in the global pristine CTF10 g100 kg biomass is generally small compared to the ambient surface nutrient concentrations but might be significant in the nutrient-poor regions of the world: the North Atlantic for P, the oligotrophic gyres for N, and the high-nutrient, low-chlorophyll (HNLC) regions for Fe. Similarly, the rate of nutrient removal from the ocean through fishing is globally small compared to the inputs but can be important locally, especially for Fe in the equatorial Pacific and along the western margin of South America and Africa. We also estimate that the cycling rate of elements through CTF10 g100 kg biomass was on the order of 3 % of the primary productivity demand for N, P, and Fe globally, prior to industrial fishing. The corresponding export of nutrients by egestion of fecal matter by CTF(10 g)(100 kg )was 2.3 % (N), 3.0 % (P), and 1 %-22 % (Fe) of the total particulate export flux and was generally more significant in the low-export oligotrophic tropical gyres. Our study supports a significant, direct role of the CTF10 g100 kg fraction of the ichthyosphere in global nutrient cycling, most notably for Fe, which has been substantially modified by industrial fishing. Although we were not able to estimate the roles of smaller species such as mesopelagic fish because of the sparsity of observational data, fishing is also likely to have altered their biomass significantly through trophic cascades, with impacts on biogeochemical cycling that could be of comparable magnitude to the changes we assess here.
C1 [Le Mezo, Priscilla; Scherrer, Kim; Galbraith, Eric] Univ Autonoma Barcelona UAB, Inst Ciencia & Technol Ambientals ICTA, Barcelona, Spain.
   [Le Mezo, Priscilla] ENS Ulm, Lab Meteorol Dynam, Paris, France.
   [Guiet, Jerome; Bianchi, Daniele] Univ Calif Los Angeles, Atmospher & Ocean Sci, Los Angeles, CA USA.
   [Galbraith, Eric] Catalan Inst Res & Adv Studies ICREA, Barcelona, Spain.
   [Galbraith, Eric] McGill Univ, Earth & Planetary Sci, Montreal, PQ, Canada.
C3 Autonomous University of Barcelona; Hospital Universitari Vall d'Hebron;
   Institut Polytechnique de Paris; Ecole Polytechnique; Sorbonne
   Universite; Universite PSL; Ecole Normale Superieure (ENS); University
   of California System; University of California Los Angeles; ICREA;
   McGill University
RP Le Mézo, P (corresponding author), Univ Autonoma Barcelona UAB, Inst Ciencia & Technol Ambientals ICTA, Barcelona, Spain.; Le Mézo, P (corresponding author), ENS Ulm, Lab Meteorol Dynam, Paris, France.
EM priscilla.le-mezo@lmd.ens.fr
RI ; Galbraith, Eric/F-9469-2014; Scherrer, Kim/V-3008-2019
OI Le Mézo, Priscilla K/0000-0002-5695-4845; Bianchi,
   Daniele/0000-0002-6621-0858; Galbraith, Eric/0000-0003-4476-4232;
   Scherrer, Kim/0000-0001-6198-5745
FU European Research Council (ERC) under the European Union [682602];
   California Ocean Protection Council [C0100400]; NASA [80NSSC21K0420];
   French ANR project CIGOEF [ANR-17-CE32-0008-01]; Extreme Science and
   Engineering Discovery Environment (XSEDE) [TG-OCE170017]; European
   Research Council (ERC) [682602] Funding Source: European Research
   Council (ERC)
FX This research has been supported by the European Research Council (ERC)
   under the European Union's Horizon 2020 research and innovation
   programme (BIGSEA, grant no. 682602), the California Ocean Protection
   Council (grant no. C0100400), NASA (grant no. 80NSSC21K0420), the French
   ANR project CIGOEF (grant no. ANR-17-CE32-0008-01), and the Extreme
   Science and Engineering Discovery Environment (XSEDE, grant no.
   TG-OCE170017).
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NR 88
TC 24
Z9 26
U1 1
U2 33
PU COPERNICUS GESELLSCHAFT MBH
PI GOTTINGEN
PA BAHNHOFSALLEE 1E, GOTTINGEN, 37081, GERMANY
SN 1726-4170
EI 1726-4189
J9 BIOGEOSCIENCES
JI Biogeosciences
PD MAY 18
PY 2022
VL 19
IS 10
BP 2537
EP 2555
DI 10.5194/bg-19-2537-2022
PG 19
WC Ecology; Geosciences, Multidisciplinary
WE Science Citation Index Expanded (SCI-EXPANDED)
SC Environmental Sciences & Ecology; Geology
GA 1I0GZ
UT WOS:000796917600001
OA Green Submitted, gold
DA 2026-06-14
ER

PT J
AU Doelman, JC
   Beier, FD
   Stehfest, E
   Bodirsky, BL
   Beusen, AHW
   Humpenöder, F
   Mishra, A
   Popp, A
   van Vuuren, DP
   de Vos, L
   Weindl, I
   Van Zeist, WJ
   Kram, T
AF Doelman, Jonathan C.
   Beier, Felicitas D.
   Stehfest, Elke
   Bodirsky, Benjamin L.
   Beusen, Arthur H. W.
   Humpenoeder, Florian
   Mishra, Abhijeet
   Popp, Alexander
   van Vuuren, Detlef P.
   de Vos, Lotte
   Weindl, Isabelle
   Van Zeist, Willem-Jan
   Kram, Tom
TI Quantifying synergies and trade-offs in the global
   water-land-food-climate nexus using a multi-model scenario approach
SO ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS
LA English
DT Article
DE nexus; integrated assessment; climate change mitigation; food security;
   biodiversity; nitrogen budget; water use
ID MEAN TEMPERATURE INCREASE; GREENHOUSE-GAS EMISSIONS; CHANGE MITIGATION;
   INTEGRATED ASSESSMENT; DEMAND; MODEL; NITROGEN; PRODUCTIVITY;
   AGRICULTURE; ELECTRICITY
AB The human-earth system is confronted with the challenge of providing a range of resources for a growing and more prosperous world population while simultaneously reducing environmental degradation. The sustainable development goals and the planetary boundaries define targets to manage this challenge. Many of these are linked to the land system, such as biodiversity, water, food, nutrients and climate, and are strongly interconnected. A key question is how measures can be designed in the context of multi-dimensional sustainability targets to exploit synergies. To address this, a nexus approach is adopted that acknowledges the interconnectedness between the important sub-systems water, land, food, and climate. This study quantifies synergies and trade-offs from ambitious interventions in different components of this water-land-fod-climate nexus at the global scale. For this purpose, a set of six harmonized scenarios is simulated with the model of agricultural production and its impact on the environment and Integrated model to assess the global environment models. The multi-model approach improves robustness of the results while shedding light on variations coming from different modelling approaches. Our results show that measures in the food component towards healthy diets with low meat consumption have synergies with all other nexus dimensions: Increased natural land improving terrestrial biodiversity (+4% to +8%), lower greenhouse gas emissions from land (-45% to -58%), reduced irrigation water withdrawals to protect or restore hydrological environmental flows (-3% to -24%), and reductions in nitrogen surpluses (-23% to -35%). Climate mitigation measures in line with the Paris Agreement have trade-offs with the water and food components of the nexus, as they adversely affect irrigation water withdrawals (+5% to +30% in 2050 compared to reference scenario) and food prices (+1% to +20%). The analysis of a scenario combining all measures reveals how certain measures are in conflict while others reinforce each other. This study provides an example of a nexus approach to scenario analysis providing input to the next generation of pathways aiming to achieve multiple dimensions of sustainable development.
C1 [Doelman, Jonathan C.; Stehfest, Elke; Beusen, Arthur H. W.; van Vuuren, Detlef P.; de Vos, Lotte; Kram, Tom] PBL Netherlands Environm Assessment Agcy, The Hague, Netherlands.
   [Doelman, Jonathan C.; van Vuuren, Detlef P.] Univ Utrecht, Copernicus Inst Sustainable Dev, Utrecht, Netherlands.
   [Beier, Felicitas D.; Bodirsky, Benjamin L.; Humpenoeder, Florian; Mishra, Abhijeet; Popp, Alexander; Weindl, Isabelle] Potsdam Inst Climate Impact Res PIK, Potsdam, Germany.
   [Beier, Felicitas D.; Mishra, Abhijeet] Humboldt Univ, Dept Agr Econ, Berlin, Germany.
   [de Vos, Lotte] Wageningen Univ & Res, Wageningen Environm Res, Wageningen, Netherlands.
   [Van Zeist, Willem-Jan] Wageningen Univ & Res, Wageningen Econ Res, The Hague, Netherlands.
   [Bodirsky, Benjamin L.] World Vegetable Ctr, Tainan, Taiwan.
   [Beusen, Arthur H. W.] Univ Utrecht, Dept Earth Sci Geochem, Utrecht, Netherlands.
C3 Utrecht University; Potsdam Institut fur Klimafolgenforschung; Humboldt
   University of Berlin; Wageningen University & Research; Wageningen
   University & Research; Utrecht University
RP Doelman, JC (corresponding author), PBL Netherlands Environm Assessment Agcy, The Hague, Netherlands.; Doelman, JC (corresponding author), Univ Utrecht, Copernicus Inst Sustainable Dev, Utrecht, Netherlands.
EM jonathan.doelman@pbl.nl
RI Bodirsky, Benjamin Leon/ABH-9170-2020; Mishra, Abhijeet/ODL-2114-2025;
   Stehfest, Elke/AAZ-4121-2020; van Vuuren, Detlef/A-4764-2009;
   Humpenöder, Florian/HHN-1081-2022; Popp, Alexander/N-7064-2014
OI Bodirsky, Benjamin Leon/0000-0002-8242-6712; de Vos,
   Lotte/0000-0001-5841-9873; Weindl, Isabelle/0000-0002-7651-6930; Beusen,
   Arthur/0000-0003-0104-8615; Mishra, Abhijeet/0000-0002-8287-9922;
   Stehfest, Elke/0000-0003-3016-2679; van Vuuren,
   Detlef/0000-0003-0398-2831; Humpenöder, Florian/0000-0003-2927-9407;
   Doelman, Jonathan/0000-0002-6842-573X; Popp,
   Alexander/0000-0001-9500-1986; Beier, Felicitas
   Dorothea/0000-0002-8725-7663
FU European Union [689150 SIM4NEXUS, 776479, 031B0787B, 776608]; SHAPE
   project which is part of AXIS, an ERA-NET; FORMAS; FFG/BMWFW; DLR/BMBF
   [01LS1907A-B-C]; German Federal Environmental Foundation (DBU)
FX The research benefited from funding under the European Union's Horizon
   2020 research and innovation programme, under Grant agreement no 689150
   SIM4NEXUS. In addition, it received funding from the SHAPE project which
   is part of AXIS, an ERA-NET initiated by JPI Climate, and funded by
   FORMAS (SE), FFG/BMWFW (AT), DLR/BMBF (DE, Grant No. 01LS1907A-B-C), NWO
   (NL) and RCN (NO) with co-funding by the European Union (Grant No.
   776608). It also received funding from the European Union's Horizon 2020
   research and innovation programme under Grant Agreement Nos. 776479
   (COACCH), and 031B0787B (FOCUS). We acknowledge the support by the
   German Federal Environmental Foundation (DBU) through a scholarship for
   FB.
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NR 103
TC 46
Z9 52
U1 9
U2 108
PU IOP Publishing Ltd
PI Bristol
PA No.2 The Distillery, Glassfields, Avon Street, Bristol, ENGLAND
SN 1748-9326
J9 ENVIRON RES LETT
JI Environ. Res. Lett.
PD APR 1
PY 2022
VL 17
IS 4
AR 045004
DI 10.1088/1748-9326/ac5766
PG 18
WC Environmental Sciences; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
WE Science Citation Index Expanded (SCI-EXPANDED); Social Science Citation Index (SSCI)
SC Environmental Sciences & Ecology; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
GA ZQ1EW
UT WOS:000766856700001
OA Green Submitted, gold
DA 2026-06-14
ER

PT J
AU Stegmann, P
   Daioglou, V
   Londo, M
   Junginger, M
AF Stegmann, Paul
   Daioglou, Vassilis
   Londo, Marc
   Junginger, Martin
TI The plastics integrated assessment model (PLAIA): Assessing emission
   mitigation pathways and circular economy strategies for the plastics
   sector
SO METHODSX
LA English
DT Article
DE Plastics; Climate change; Circular economy; Recycling; Waste; Waste
   management; Bioeconomy; Biomass; Greenhouse-gas emissions; Integrated
   assessment modeling
ID LIFE-CYCLE ASSESSMENT; WASTE; FUEL
AB Integrated assessment models (IAM) study the interlinkages between human and natural systems and play a key role in assessing global strategies to reduce global warming. However, they largely neglect the role of materials and the circular economy. With the Plastics Integrated Assessment model (PLAIA), we included plastic production, use, and end-of-life in the IAM IMAGE. PLAIA models the global plastics sector and its impacts up to 2100 for 26 world regions, providing a long-term, dynamic perspective of the sector and its interactions with other socioeconomic and natural systems. This article summarizes the model structure, mathematical formulation, assumptions, and data sources. The model links the upstream chemical production with the downstream production of plastics, their use in different sectors, and their end of life. Therefore, PLAIA can assess material use and emission mitigation strategies throughout the whole life cycle in an IAM, including the impacts of the circular economy on mitigating climate change. PLAIA projects plastics demand, production pathways and specifies the annual plastic waste generation, collection, and the impact of waste management strategies. It shows the fossil and bio-based energy and carbon flows in product stocks, landfills, and the emissions in production and at the end of life.center dot We included plastics production, use, and waste management into an Integrated Assessment Model (IAM).center dot Our model PLAIA provides a long-term, dynamic perspective of the global plastics sector until 2100 and its interactions with other sectors and the environment. center dot PLAIA can assess the impact of material use and emission mitigation strategies throughout the whole life cycle of plastics.(c) 2022 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier B.V. This is an open access article under the CC BY license ( http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ )
C1 [Stegmann, Paul; Daioglou, Vassilis; Londo, Marc; Junginger, Martin] Univ Utrecht, Utrecht, Netherlands.
   [Stegmann, Paul; Daioglou, Vassilis] PBL Netherlands Environm Assessment Agcy, The Hague, Netherlands.
   [Londo, Marc] Netherlands Assoc Renewable Energy NVDE, Utrecht, Netherlands.
C3 Utrecht University
RP Stegmann, P (corresponding author), Univ Utrecht, Utrecht, Netherlands.; Stegmann, P (corresponding author), PBL Netherlands Environm Assessment Agcy, The Hague, Netherlands.
EM p.h.stegmann@uu.nl
RI Londo, Marc/AAQ-7905-2020; Daioglou, Vassilis/L-7262-2013; Junginger,
   Martin/A-2687-2009
OI Londo, Marc/0000-0003-1476-0003; Stegmann, Paul/0000-0003-2683-468X; 
FU Topconsortia voor Kennis en Innovatie programma BioBased Economy
   (Netherlands) - Dutch Ministry of Economic Affairs [TKI-BBE-1601]
FX The funding of this research is supported by the Topconsortia voor
   Kennis en Innovatie programma BioBased Economy (Netherlands), awarded by
   the Dutch Ministry of Economic Affairs (Project Reference TKI-BBE-1601
   Impact assessment BBE economy).
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NR 63
TC 24
Z9 31
U1 0
U2 51
PU ELSEVIER
PI AMSTERDAM
PA RADARWEG 29, 1043 NX AMSTERDAM, NETHERLANDS
EI 2215-0161
J9 METHODSX
JI MethodsX
PY 2022
VL 9
AR 101666
DI 10.1016/j.mex.2022.101666
EA MAR 2022
PG 31
WC Multidisciplinary Sciences
WE Emerging Sources Citation Index (ESCI)
SC Science & Technology - Other Topics
GA 0Y6BZ
UT WOS:000790475700008
PM 35369121
OA Green Submitted, gold
DA 2026-06-14
ER

PT J
AU Beusen, AHW
   Doelman, JC
   Van Beek, LPH
   Van Puijenbroek, PJTM
   Mogollón, JM
   Van Grinsven, HJM
   Stehfest, E
   Van Vuuren, DP
   Bouwman, AF
AF Beusen, A. H. W.
   Doelman, J. C.
   Van Beek, L. P. H.
   Van Puijenbroek, P. J. T. M.
   Mogollon, J. M.
   Van Grinsven, H. J. M.
   Stehfest, E.
   Van Vuuren, D. P.
   Bouwman, A. F.
TI Exploring river nitrogen and phosphorus loading and export to global
   coastal waters in the Shared Socio-economic pathways
SO GLOBAL ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE-HUMAN AND POLICY DIMENSIONS
LA English
DT Article
DE Agriculture; Freshwater; Nitrogen; Phosphorus; Sewage; Scenario
ID ECOLOGICAL SANITATION; FLOWS; DYNAMICS; CYCLES; 20TH-CENTURY;
   AGRICULTURE; TRANSPORT; FIXATION; HYPOXIA; CARBON
AB This global spatially explicit (0.5 by 0.5 degree) analysis presents the nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P) inputs, processing and biogeochemical retention and delivery to surface waters and river export to coastal seas according to the five shared socioeconomic pathways (SSP). Four systems are considered: (i) human system; (ii) agriculture; (iii) aquaculture; (iv) nature. Exploring the changes during 1980-2015 and 2015-2050 according to the SSPs shows that the natural nutrient sources have been declining in the past decades and will continue to decline in all SSPs in future decades due to massive land transformations, while agriculture, human sewage and aquaculture are becoming increasingly dominant (globally up to 80% of nutrient delivery). More efforts than those employed in any of the SSPs are needed to slow down the global nutrient cycles. One of the drivers of the proliferation of harmful algal blooms is the tendency towards increasing N:P ratios in global freshwaters and export to the global coastal seas; this is the result of increasing N:P in inputs in food production, more efficient biogeochemical retention of P than of N in river basins, and groundwater N legacies, which seems to be most pronounced in a united world that strives after sustainability. The diverging strategies to achieve UN Sustainable Development Goals 14 (life below water), 2 (zero hunger) and 6 (clean water and sanitation) therefore require a balanced management system for both N and P in all systems, that accounts for future nutrient legacies.
C1 [Beusen, A. H. W.; Mogollon, J. M.; Bouwman, A. F.] Univ Utrecht, Fac Geosci, Dept Earth Sci Geochem, POB 80021, NL-3508 TA Utrecht, Netherlands.
   [Beusen, A. H. W.; Doelman, J. C.; Van Beek, L. P. H.; Van Puijenbroek, P. J. T. M.; Van Grinsven, H. J. M.; Stehfest, E.; Van Vuuren, D. P.; Bouwman, A. F.] PBL Netherlands Environm Assessment Agcy, POB 30314, NL-2500 GH The Hague, Netherlands.
   [Van Beek, L. P. H.] Univ Utrecht, Fac Geosci, Dept Phys Geog, POB 80-115, NL-3508 TC Utrecht, Netherlands.
   [Mogollon, J. M.] Leiden Univ, Inst Environm Sci CML, POB 9518, NL-2300 RA Leiden, Netherlands.
   [Van Vuuren, D. P.] Univ Utrecht, Fac Geosci, Copernicus Inst Sustainable Dev, POB 80115, NL-3508 TC Utrecht, Netherlands.
   [Bouwman, A. F.] Ocean Univ China, Frontiers Sci Ctr Deep Ocean Multispheres & Earth, Qingdao 266100, Peoples R China.
   [Bouwman, A. F.] Ocean Univ China, Minist Educ, Key Lab Marine Chem Theory & Technol, Qingdao 266100, Peoples R China.
C3 Utrecht University; Utrecht University; Leiden University - Excl LUMC;
   Leiden University; Utrecht University; Ocean University of China; Ocean
   University of China
RP Bouwman, AF (corresponding author), Univ Utrecht, Fac Geosci, Dept Earth Sci Geochem, POB 80021, NL-3508 TA Utrecht, Netherlands.
EM lex.bouwman@pbl.nl
RI ; van Vuuren, Detlef/A-4764-2009; Bouwman, Lex/B-7053-2012; Van Beek,
   Rens/B-4904-2014; Stehfest, Elke/AAZ-4121-2020
OI Beusen, Arthur/0000-0003-0104-8615; van Vuuren,
   Detlef/0000-0003-0398-2831; 
FU International Nitrogen Management System project (INMS) - GEF; PBL
   Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency [869.15.015, 869.15.014]
FX PBL received funding for this work from the International Nitrogen
   Management System project (INMS, http://www.inms.international/) funded
   by GEF and implemented by UNEP. A.F. Bouwman and A.H.W. Beusen received
   support from PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency through
   in-kind contributions to The New Delta 2014 ALW project no. 869.15.015
   and no. 869.15.014.
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NR 87
TC 156
Z9 181
U1 22
U2 169
PU ELSEVIER SCI LTD
PI London
PA 125 London Wall, London, ENGLAND
SN 0959-3780
EI 1872-9495
J9 GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG
JI Glob. Environ. Change-Human Policy Dimens.
PD JAN
PY 2022
VL 72
AR 102426
DI 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2021.102426
EA DEC 2021
PG 16
WC Environmental Sciences; Environmental Studies; Geography
WE Science Citation Index Expanded (SCI-EXPANDED); Social Science Citation Index (SSCI)
SC Environmental Sciences & Ecology; Geography
GA XP4UU
UT WOS:000730862700010
OA Green Submitted, hybrid
HC Y
HP N
DA 2026-06-14
ER

PT J
AU Drouet, L
   Bosetti, V
   Padoan, SA
   Reis, LA
   Bertram, C
   Dalla Longa, F
   Després, J
   Emmerling, J
   Fosse, F
   Fragkiadakis, K
   Frank, S
   Fricko, O
   Fujimori, S
   Harmsen, M
   Krey, V
   Oshiro, K
   Nogueira, LP
   Paroussos, L
   Piontek, F
   Riahi, K
   Rochedo, PRR
   Schaeffer, R
   Takakura, J
   Van der Wijst, KI
   van der Zwaan, B
   van Vuuren, D
   Vrontisi, Z
   Weitzel, M
   Zakeri, B
   Tavoni, M
AF Drouet, Laurent
   Bosetti, Valentina
   Padoan, Simone A.
   Reis, Lara Aleluia
   Bertram, Christoph
   Dalla Longa, Francesco
   Despres, Jacques
   Emmerling, Johannes
   Fosse, Florian
   Fragkiadakis, Kostas
   Frank, Stefan
   Fricko, Oliver
   Fujimori, Shinichiro
   Harmsen, Mathijs
   Krey, Volker
   Oshiro, Ken
   Nogueira, Larissa P.
   Paroussos, Leonidas
   Piontek, Franziska
   Riahi, Keywan
   Rochedo, Pedro R. R.
   Schaeffer, Roberto
   Takakura, Jun'ya
   Van der Wijst, Kaj-Ivar
   van der Zwaan, Bob
   van Vuuren, Detlef
   Vrontisi, Zoi
   Weitzel, Matthias
   Zakeri, Behnam
   Tavoni, Massimo
TI Net zero-emission pathways reduce the physical and economic risks of
   climate change
SO NATURE CLIMATE CHANGE
LA English
DT Article
ID REGIONAL IMPACTS; SOCIAL COST; TEMPERATURE; SCENARIOS; GROWTH; DAMAGE
AB Mitigation pathways allowing for temperature overshoot often ignore the related climate and macroeconomic impacts. Net-zero pathways with limited overshoot could reduce low-probability high-consequence risks and economic loss.
   Mitigation pathways exploring end-of-century temperature targets often entail temperature overshoot. Little is known about the additional climate risks generated by overshooting temperature. Here we assessed the benefits of limiting overshoot. We computed the probabilistic impacts for different warming targets and overshoot levels on the basis of an ensemble of integrated assessment models. We explored both physical and macroeconomic impacts, including persistent and non-persistent climate impacts. We found that temperature overshooting affects the likelihood of many critical physical impacts, such as those associated with heat extremes. Limiting overshoot reduces risk in the right tail of the distribution, in particular for low-temperature targets where larger overshoots arise as a way to lower short-term mitigation costs. We also showed how, after mid-century, overshoot leads to both higher mitigation costs and economic losses from the additional impacts. The study highlights the need to include climate risk analysis in low-carbon pathways.
C1 [Drouet, Laurent; Bosetti, Valentina; Reis, Lara Aleluia; Emmerling, Johannes; Tavoni, Massimo] Ctr Euro Mediterraneo Cambiamenti Climat, RFF CMCC European Inst Econ & Environm, Milan, Italy.
   [Bosetti, Valentina] Bocconi Univ, Dept Econ, Milan, Italy.
   [Bosetti, Valentina] Bocconi Univ, IGIER, Milan, Italy.
   [Padoan, Simone A.] Bocconi Univ Milan, Dept Decis Sci, Milan, Italy.
   [Padoan, Simone A.] Ctr Euro Mediterraneo Cambiamenti Climat CMCC, Milan, Italy.
   [Bertram, Christoph; Piontek, Franziska] Potsdam Inst Climate Impact Res PIK, Potsdam, Germany.
   [Bertram, Christoph; Piontek, Franziska] Leibniz Assoc, Potsdam, Germany.
   [Dalla Longa, Francesco; Nogueira, Larissa P.; van der Zwaan, Bob] TNO Energy Transit, Amsterdam, Netherlands.
   [Despres, Jacques; Fosse, Florian; Weitzel, Matthias] European Commiss, Joint Res Ctr JRC, Seville, Spain.
   [Fragkiadakis, Kostas; Paroussos, Leonidas; Vrontisi, Zoi] E3Modelling, Athens, Greece.
   [Frank, Stefan; Fricko, Oliver; Fujimori, Shinichiro; Krey, Volker; Riahi, Keywan; Zakeri, Behnam] Int Inst Appl Syst Anal IIASA, Laxenburg, Austria.
   [Fujimori, Shinichiro; Oshiro, Ken] Kyoto Univ, Dept Environm Engn, Kyoto, Japan.
   [Fujimori, Shinichiro; Takakura, Jun'ya] Natl Inst Environm Studies NIES, Tsukuba, Ibaraki, Japan.
   [Harmsen, Mathijs; Van der Wijst, Kaj-Ivar; van Vuuren, Detlef] PBL Netherlands Environm Assessment Agcy, The Hague, Netherlands.
   [Harmsen, Mathijs; Van der Wijst, Kaj-Ivar; van Vuuren, Detlef] Univ Utrecht, Copernicus Inst Sustainable Dev, Utrecht, Netherlands.
   [Riahi, Keywan] Graz Univ Technol, Graz, Austria.
   [Rochedo, Pedro R. R.; Schaeffer, Roberto] Univ Fed Rio de Janeiro, CENERGIA COPPE, Rio De Janeiro, Brazil.
   [van der Zwaan, Bob] Univ Amsterdam, Amsterdam, Netherlands.
   [van der Zwaan, Bob] Johns Hopkins Univ, Bologna, Italy.
   [Tavoni, Massimo] Politecn Milan, Dept Management Econ & Ind Engn, Milan, Italy.
C3 Bocconi University; Bocconi University; Bocconi University; Centro
   Euro-Mediterraneo sui Cambiamenti Climatici (CMCC); Potsdam Institut fur
   Klimafolgenforschung; International Institute for Applied Systems
   Analysis (IIASA); Kyoto University; National Institute for Environmental
   Studies - Japan; Utrecht University; Graz University of Technology;
   Universidade Federal do Rio de Janeiro; University of Amsterdam; Johns
   Hopkins University; Polytechnic University of Milan
RP Drouet, L (corresponding author), Ctr Euro Mediterraneo Cambiamenti Climat, RFF CMCC European Inst Econ & Environm, Milan, Italy.
EM laurent.drouet@eiee.org
RI Weitzel, Matthias/AFM-9374-2022; Krey, Volker/ABD-5070-2021; Frank,
   Stefan/AAE-8070-2019; bosetti, valentina/KLY-5840-2024; Riahi,
   Keywan/B-6426-2011; Bertram, Christoph/AAT-9651-2020; EMMERLING,
   Johannes/K-8283-2019; Oshiro, Ken/W-9746-2018; van Vuuren,
   Detlef/A-4764-2009; Drouet, Laurent/J-9894-2019; Zakeri,
   Behnam/HHC-7747-2022; Fragkiadakis, Kostas/AAG-9660-2020; van der Wijst,
   Kaj-Ivar/AAH-1418-2021; Aleluia Reis, Lara/AFV-8907-2022; Schaeffer,
   Roberto/F-9262-2012; Oliver, Fricko/ABE-5732-2020; Fujimori,
   Shinichiro/A-1288-2015; van der Zwaan, Bob/F-4070-2015
OI Weitzel, Matthias/0000-0003-3764-3731; Frank,
   Stefan/0000-0001-5702-8547; bosetti, valentina/0000-0003-4970-0027;
   Bertram, Christoph/0000-0002-0933-4395; EMMERLING,
   Johannes/0000-0003-0916-9913; Oshiro, Ken/0000-0001-6720-409X; van
   Vuuren, Detlef/0000-0003-0398-2831; Després,
   Jacques/0000-0002-9851-9964; Drouet, Laurent/0000-0002-4087-7662;
   Zakeri, Behnam/0000-0001-9647-2878; Fragkiadakis,
   Kostas/0000-0002-1129-0360; Dalla Longa, Francesco/0000-0001-6390-9842;
   Aleluia Reis, Lara/0000-0002-6676-7007; FOSSE,
   Florian/0000-0002-0239-1143; Schaeffer, Roberto/0000-0002-3709-7323;
   Oliver, Fricko/0000-0002-6835-9883; 
FU European Union's Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme
   [821471]; Environment Research and Technology Development Fund of the
   Environmental Restoration and Conservation Agency of Japan
   [JPMEERF20202002]; Sumitomo Foundation
FX We thank H. Held for discussion on the sea-level rise model. This
   research received funding from the European Union's Horizon 2020
   research and innovation programme under grant agreement no. 821471
   (ENGAGE) (L.D., V.B, L.A.R, C.B., F.D.L., J.D., J.E., F.F., S. Frank,
   K.F., O.F., S. Fujimori, M.H., V.K., L.P.N., K.O., L.P., F.P., R.S.,
   J.T., K.R., P.R.R.R, D.v.V., M.T., Z.V., M.W., K.-I.v.d.W, B.Z. and
   B.v.d.Z). S. Fujimori is supported by the Environment Research and
   Technology Development Fund (JPMEERF20202002) of the Environmental
   Restoration and Conservation Agency of Japan and by the Sumitomo
   Foundation.
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NR 40
TC 80
Z9 91
U1 4
U2 80
PU NATURE PORTFOLIO
PI BERLIN
PA HEIDELBERGER PLATZ 3, BERLIN, 14197, GERMANY
SN 1758-678X
EI 1758-6798
J9 NAT CLIM CHANGE
JI Nat. Clim. Chang.
PD DEC
PY 2021
VL 11
IS 12
BP 1070
EP +
DI 10.1038/s41558-021-01218-z
EA NOV 2021
PG 10
WC Environmental Sciences; Environmental Studies; Meteorology & Atmospheric
   Sciences
WE Science Citation Index Expanded (SCI-EXPANDED); Social Science Citation Index (SSCI)
SC Environmental Sciences & Ecology; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
GA XJ7KN
UT WOS:000723552200008
OA Green Submitted, Green Published, Bronze
DA 2026-06-14
ER



PT J
AU De Vos, L
   Biemans, H
   Doelman, JC
   Stehfest, E
   Van Vuuren, DP
AF de Vos, Lotte
   Biemans, Hester
   Doelman, Jonathan C.
   Stehfest, Elke
   van Vuuren, Detlef P.
TI Trade-offs between water needs for food, utilities, and the
   environment-a nexus quantification at different scales
SO ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS
LA English
DT Article
DE integrated assessments; water-energy-food nexus; environmental flow
   requirements; water withdrawals; shared socio-economic pathways (SSPS)
ID SHARED SOCIOECONOMIC PATHWAYS; PLANETARY BOUNDARY; LAND-USE; SCIENCE;
   CLIMATE; MODEL; REQUIREMENTS; AVAILABILITY; WITHDRAWALS; SCENARIOS
AB With a growing population and a changing climate, competition for water resources in the water-energy-food (WEF) nexus is expected to increase. In this study, competing water demands between food production, freshwater ecosystems and utilities (energy, industries and households) are quantified. The potential trade-offs and related impacts are elaborated for different SSP scenarios with the integrated assessment model IMAGE, which includes the global vegetation and hydrology model Lund-Potsdam-Jena managed Land (LPJmL). Results for the 2045-2054 period are evaluated at the global scale and for a selection of 14 hotspot basins and coastal zones. On the global scale, we estimate that an additional 1.7 billion people could potentially face severe water shortage for electricity, industries and households if food production and environmental flows would be prioritized. Zooming in on the hotspots, this translates to up to 70% of the local population. Results furthermore show that up to 33% of river length in the hotspots risks not meeting environmental targets when prioritizing other water demands in the nexus. For local food production, up to 41% might be lost due to competing water demands. The potential trade-offs quantified in this study highlight the competition for resources in the WEF nexus, for which impacts are most notably felt at local scales. This emphasizes the need to simultaneously consider different dimensions of the nexus when developing scenarios that aim to achieve multiple sustainability targets.
C1 [de Vos, Lotte; Biemans, Hester] Wageningen Univ & Res, Wageningen Environm Res, Wageningen, Netherlands.
   [de Vos, Lotte; Doelman, Jonathan C.; Stehfest, Elke; van Vuuren, Detlef P.] PBL Netherlands Environm Assessment Agcy, The Hague, Netherlands.
   [Doelman, Jonathan C.; van Vuuren, Detlef P.] Univ Utrecht, Copernicus Inst Sustainable Dev, Utrecht, Netherlands.
C3 Wageningen University & Research; Utrecht University
RP De Vos, L (corresponding author), Wageningen Univ & Res, Wageningen Environm Res, Wageningen, Netherlands.; De Vos, L (corresponding author), PBL Netherlands Environm Assessment Agcy, The Hague, Netherlands.
EM Lotte.devos@pbl.nl
RI ; Stehfest, Elke/AAZ-4121-2020; van Vuuren, Detlef/A-4764-2009
OI Doelman, Jonathan/0000-0002-6842-573X; Stehfest,
   Elke/0000-0003-3016-2679; van Vuuren, Detlef/0000-0003-0398-2831;
   Biemans, Hester/0000-0001-8750-2553; de Vos, Lotte/0000-0001-5841-9873
FU Dutch Ministry of Agriculture, Nature and Food Security; European
   Union's Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme [689150
   SIM4NEXUS]
FX The research leading to these results has received funding from KB 35
   'Food Security and Valuing Water programme' that is supported by the
   Dutch Ministry of Agriculture, Nature and Food Security. The research
   benefited from funding under the European Union's Horizon 2020 research
   and innovation programme, under grant agreement no 689150 SIM4NEXUS. The
   funders had no role in study design, data collection and analysis,
   decision (what) to publish, or preparation of the manuscript.
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NR 62
TC 20
Z9 22
U1 3
U2 70
PU IOP Publishing Ltd
PI Bristol
PA No.2 The Distillery, Glassfields, Avon Street, Bristol, ENGLAND
SN 1748-9326
J9 ENVIRON RES LETT
JI Environ. Res. Lett.
PD NOV
PY 2021
VL 16
IS 11
AR 115003
DI 10.1088/1748-9326/ac2b5e
PG 13
WC Environmental Sciences; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
WE Science Citation Index Expanded (SCI-EXPANDED); Social Science Citation Index (SSCI)
SC Environmental Sciences & Ecology; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
GA WH1PA
UT WOS:000707457800001
OA Green Submitted, gold
DA 2026-06-14
ER




PT J
AU Verma, M
   Verma, AK
   Misra, AK
AF Verma, Maitri
   Verma, Alok Kumar
   Misra, A. K.
TI Mathematical modeling and optimal control of carbon dioxide emissions
   from energy sector
SO ENVIRONMENT DEVELOPMENT AND SUSTAINABILITY
LA English
DT Article
DE Mathematical model; Energy use; Atmospheric carbon dioxide; Climate
   change mitigation; Optimal control
ID CO2 EMISSIONS; RENEWABLE ENERGY; ECONOMIC-GROWTH; CLIMATE-CHANGE;
   DYNAMICS; CAPTURE; CONSUMPTION; REDUCTION
AB Energy demand is rising day by day and will continue to increase to meet the demand of the growing population. A major portion of global energy production comes from fossil fuel burning, resulting in the increase in the atmospheric burden of global warming gas carbon dioxide (CO2). Cutting down CO2 emission from the energy sector is crucial to meet the climate change mitigation target. This paper is focused on fulfilling two objectives: The first objective is to present a mathematical model that captures the dynamical relationship between the human population, energy use, and atmospheric carbon dioxide, and the second aim is to derive a mathematical framework to effectively utilize the available mitigation options to curtail CO2 emission from energy use by proposing an optimal control problem. The mitigation options that reduce the CO(2)emission rate from energy production, as well as the options that reduce the energy consumption rate, are considered in the modeling process. The proposed mathematical model is analyzed qualitatively to comprehend the system's long-term behavior. The model parameters are fitted to real data of global energy use, population, and CO2 concentration. It is shown that the equilibrium level of CO2 reduces with the increase in the efficiencies of mitigation options to reduce the CO2 emission rate per unit energy use and energy consumption rate. The optimality system is derived analytically by taking the efficiencies of the mitigation options to reduce the CO2 emission rate and energy consumption rate as control variables. Numerical simulations are conducted to validate the theoretical findings and identify the optimal profiles of control variables under different settings of CO2 emission rate, energy consumption rate, and maximum efficiencies of available mitigation options to cut down CO2 emission rate and energy consumption rate. It is found that the development and implementation of more efficient mitigation options and switching to low carbon energy sources bring reduction in the mitigation cost.
C1 [Verma, Maitri; Verma, Alok Kumar] Babasaheb Bhimrao Ambedkar Univ, Sch Phys & Decis Sci, Dept Math, Lucknow 226025, Uttar Pradesh, India.
   [Misra, A. K.] Banaras Hindu Univ, Inst Sci, Dept Math, Varanasi 221005, Uttar Pradesh, India.
C3 Babasaheb Bhimrao Ambedkar University; Banaras Hindu University (BHU)
RP Verma, M (corresponding author), Babasaheb Bhimrao Ambedkar Univ, Sch Phys & Decis Sci, Dept Math, Lucknow 226025, Uttar Pradesh, India.
EM maitri.verma9@gmail.com; alokkrv94@gmail.com; akmisra@bhu.ac.in
RI Verma, Maitri/AGJ-4348-2022
OI Verma, Maitri/0000-0003-4992-2156
FU University Grants Commission, New Delhi, India [F.30-442/2018(BSR)];
   Council of Scientific & Industrial Research (CSIR), New Delhi, India
   [09/961(0014)/2019-EMR-1]
FX Authors are thankful to the handling editor and the anonymous reviewers
   for their useful suggestions. The first author (Maitri Verma) thankfully
   acknowledges University Grants Commission, New Delhi, India for
   financial support in form of UGC-BSR Research Start-Up Grant
   (No.F.30-442/2018(BSR)). The second author (Alok Kumar Verma) thankfully
   acknowledges Council of Scientific & Industrial Research (CSIR), New
   Delhi, India for financial support in form of junior research fellowship
   (09/961(0014)/2019-EMR-1).
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NR 67
TC 41
Z9 44
U1 0
U2 26
PU SPRINGER
PI DORDRECHT
PA VAN GODEWIJCKSTRAAT 30, 3311 GZ DORDRECHT, NETHERLANDS
SN 1387-585X
EI 1573-2975
J9 ENVIRON DEV SUSTAIN
JI Environ. Dev. Sustain.
PD SEP
PY 2021
VL 23
IS 9
BP 13919
EP 13944
DI 10.1007/s10668-021-01245-y
EA JAN 2021
PG 26
WC Green & Sustainable Science & Technology; Environmental Sciences
WE Science Citation Index Expanded (SCI-EXPANDED); Social Science Citation Index (SSCI)
SC Science & Technology - Other Topics; Environmental Sciences & Ecology
GA TS5ZC
UT WOS:000612072200002
DA 2026-06-14
ER

PT J
AU Scherrer, K
   Galbraith, E
AF Scherrer, Kim
   Galbraith, Eric
TI Regulation strength and technology creep play key roles in global
   long-term projections of wild capture fisheries
SO ICES JOURNAL OF MARINE SCIENCE
LA English
DT Article
DE catchability; climate change; collective action; fisheries management;
   future fisheries; management effectiveness; marine ecosystem modelling
ID MARINE FISHERIES; STOCK ASSESSMENT; CLIMATE-CHANGE; MANAGEMENT;
   RESOURCE; FUTURE; SUSTAINABILITY; CATCHABILITY; ECOSYSTEMS; BEHAVIOR
AB Many studies have shown that the global fish catch can only be sustained with effective regulation that restrains overfishing. However, the persistence of weak or ineffective regulation in many parts of the world, coupled with changing technologies and additional stressors like climate change, renders the future of global catches uncertain. Here, we use a spatially resolved, bio-economic size-spectrum model to shed light on the interactive impacts of three globally important drivers over multidecadal timescales: imperfect regulation, technology-driven catchability increase, and climate change. We implement regulation as the adjustment of fishing towards a target level with some degree of effectiveness and project a range of possible trajectories for global fisheries. We find that if technological progress continues apace, increasingly effective regulation is required to prevent overfishing, akin to a Red Queen race. Climate change reduces the possible upper bound for global catches, but its economic impacts can be offset by strong regulation. Ominously, technological progress under weak regulation masks a progressive erosion of fish biomass by boosting profits and generating a temporary stabilization of global catches. Our study illustrates the large degree to which the long-term outlook of global fisheries can be improved by continually strengthening fisheries regulation, despite the negative impacts of climate change.
C1 [Scherrer, Kim; Galbraith, Eric] Univ Autanoma Barcelona, Inst Ciencia & Tecnol Ambientals ICTA, Cerdanyola Del Valles 08193, Spain.
   [Galbraith, Eric] McGill Univ, Dept Earth & Planetary Sci, Montreal, PQ H3A 0E8, Canada.
C3 Autonomous University of Barcelona; McGill University
RP Scherrer, K (corresponding author), Univ Autanoma Barcelona, Inst Ciencia & Tecnol Ambientals ICTA, Cerdanyola Del Valles 08193, Spain.
EM kim.jn.scherrer@gmail.com
RI Scherrer, Kim/V-3008-2019; Galbraith, Eric/F-9469-2014
OI Scherrer, Kim/0000-0001-6198-5745; 
FU European Research Council (ERC) under the European Union's Horizon 2020
   research and innovation programme [682602]
FX This work is funded by the European Research Council (ERC) under the
   European Union's Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme under
   grant agreement 682602.
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NR 82
TC 19
Z9 22
U1 1
U2 16
PU OXFORD UNIV PRESS
PI OXFORD
PA GREAT CLARENDON ST, OXFORD OX2 6DP, ENGLAND
SN 1054-3139
EI 1095-9289
J9 ICES J MAR SCI
JI ICES J. Mar. Sci.
PD DEC
PY 2020
VL 77
IS 7-8
BP 2518
EP 2528
DI 10.1093/icesjms/fsaa109
PG 11
WC Fisheries; Marine & Freshwater Biology; Oceanography
WE Science Citation Index Expanded (SCI-EXPANDED); Social Science Citation Index (SSCI)
SC Fisheries; Marine & Freshwater Biology; Oceanography
GA PW2RP
UT WOS:000610522000014
OA Green Submitted, hybrid
DA 2026-06-14
ER

PT J
AU Scherrer, KJN
   Harrison, CS
   Heneghan, RF
   Galbraith, E
   Bardeen, CG
   Coupe, J
   Jägermeyr, J
   Lovenduski, NS
   Luna, A
   Robock, A
   Stevens, J
   Stevenson, S
   Toon, OB
   Xia, LL
AF Scherrer, Kim J. N.
   Harrison, Cheryl S.
   Heneghan, Ryan F.
   Galbraith, Eric
   Bardeen, Charles G.
   Coupe, Joshua
   Jaegermeyr, Jonas
   Lovenduski, Nicole S.
   Luna, August
   Robock, Alan
   Stevens, Jessica
   Stevenson, Samantha
   Toon, Owen B.
   Xia, Lili
TI Marine wild-capture fisheries after nuclear war
SO PROCEEDINGS OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES OF THE UNITED STATES OF
   AMERICA
LA English
DT Article
DE food from the ocean; fisheries management; abrupt climate change;
   nuclear winter; global food security
ID VOLCANIC-ERUPTIONS; CLIMATE-CHANGE; SOUTH-ASIA; IMPACTS; FISH;
   CONSEQUENCES; MODEL; TWILIGHT; EXPORT
AB Nuclear war, beyond its devastating direct impacts, is expected to cause global climatic perturbations through injections of soot into the upper atmosphere. Reduced temperature and sunlight could drive unprecedented reductions in agricultural production, endangering global food security. However, the effects of nuclear war on marine wild-capture fisheries, which significantly contribute to the global animal protein and micronutrient supply, remain unexplored. We simulate the climatic effects of six war scenarios on fish biomass and catch globally, using a state-of-the-art Earth system model and global process-based fisheries model. We also simulate how either rapidly increased fish demand (driven by food shortages) or decreased ability to fish (due to infrastructure disruptions), would affect global catches, and test the benefits of strong prewar fisheries management. We find a decade-long negative climatic impact that intensifies with soot emissions, with global biomass and catch falling by up to 18 +/- 3% and 29 +/- 7% after a US-Russia war under business-as-usual fishing-similar in magnitude to the end-of-century declines under unmitigated global warming. When war occurs in an overfished state, increasing demand increases short-term (1 to 2 y) catch by at most similar to 30% followed by precipitous declines of up to similar to 70%, thus offsetting only a minor fraction of agricultural losses. However, effective prewar management that rebuilds fish biomass could ensure a short-term catch buffer large enough to replace similar to 43 +/- 35% of today's global animal protein production. This buffering function in the event of a global food emergency adds to the many previously known economic and ecological benefits of effective and precautionary fisheries management.
C1 [Scherrer, Kim J. N.; Heneghan, Ryan F.; Galbraith, Eric] Univ Autonoma Barcelona, Inst Ciencia & Tecnol Ambientals, Cerdanyola Del Valles 08193, Spain.
   [Harrison, Cheryl S.; Luna, August; Stevens, Jessica] Univ Texas Rio Grande Valley, Sch Earth Environm & Marine Sci, Port Isabel, TX 78578 USA.
   [Harrison, Cheryl S.; Lovenduski, Nicole S.] Univ Colorado, Inst Arctic & Alpine Res, Boulder, CO 80309 USA.
   [Galbraith, Eric] McGill Univ, Dept Earth & Planetary Sci, Montreal, PQ H3A 0E8, Canada.
   [Bardeen, Charles G.] Natl Ctr Atmospher Res, Atmospher Chem Observat & Modeling Lab, Boulder, CO 80305 USA.
   [Bardeen, Charles G.; Toon, Owen B.] Univ Colorado, Lab Atmospher & Space Phys, Boulder, CO 80303 USA.
   [Coupe, Joshua; Robock, Alan; Xia, Lili] Rutgers State Univ, Dept Environm Sci, New Brunswick, NJ 08901 USA.
   [Jaegermeyr, Jonas] NASA, Goddard Inst Space Studies, New York, NY 10025 USA.
   [Jaegermeyr, Jonas] Columbia Univ, Ctr Climate Syst Res, New York, NY 10025 USA.
   [Jaegermeyr, Jonas; Toon, Owen B.] Leibniz Assoc, Potsdam Inst Climate Impact Res, Climate Resilience, D-14473 Potsdam, Germany.
   [Lovenduski, Nicole S.] Univ Colorado, Dept Atmospher & Ocean Sci, Boulder, CO 80309 USA.
   [Stevenson, Samantha] Univ Calif Santa Barbara, Bren Sch, Santa Barbara, CA 93117 USA.
C3 Autonomous University of Barcelona; University of Texas System;
   University of Texas Rio Grande Valley; University of Colorado System;
   University of Colorado Boulder; McGill University; National Center
   Atmospheric Research (NCAR) - USA; University of Colorado System;
   University of Colorado Boulder; Rutgers University System; Rutgers
   University New Brunswick; National Aeronautics & Space Administration
   (NASA); NASA Goddard Space Flight Center; Goddard Institute for Space
   Studies; Columbia University; Potsdam Institut fur Klimafolgenforschung;
   University of Colorado System; University of Colorado Boulder;
   University of California System; University of California Santa Barbara
RP Scherrer, KJN (corresponding author), Univ Autonoma Barcelona, Inst Ciencia & Tecnol Ambientals, Cerdanyola Del Valles 08193, Spain.
EM kim.jn.scherrer@gmail.com
RI Coupe, Joshua/HIK-2507-2022; Galbraith, Eric/F-9469-2014; Scherrer,
   Kim/V-3008-2019; Lovenduski, Nicole/V-4014-2019; Harrison,
   Cheryl/IWV-0053-2023; TOON, OWEN/NBX-4563-2025; Robock,
   Alan/B-6385-2016; Xia, Lili/AAD-9398-2019
OI Coupe, Joshua/0000-0002-8652-9970; Galbraith, Eric/0000-0003-4476-4232;
   Scherrer, Kim/0000-0001-6198-5745; Stevenson,
   Samantha/0000-0002-1223-8521; Lovenduski, Nicole/0000-0001-5893-1009;
   Heneghan, Ryan/0000-0001-7626-1248; Jägermeyr,
   Jonas/0000-0002-8368-0018; Harrison, Cheryl/0000-0003-4544-947X; TOON,
   OWEN/0000-0002-1394-3062; Robock, Alan/0000-0002-6319-5656; 
FU European Research Council under the European Union's Horizon 2020
   Research and Innovation Programme [682602]; Spanish Ministry of Science,
   Innovation and Universities, through the Acciones de Programacion
   Conjunta Internacional [PCIN-2017-115]; Open Philanthropy Project
FX This work is funded by the European Research Council under the European
   Union's Horizon 2020 Research and Innovation Programme under Grant
   Agreement 682602, with partial support from the Spanish Ministry of
   Science, Innovation and Universities, through the Acciones de
   Programacion Conjunta Internacional (PCIN-2017-115), and from the Open
   Philanthropy Project. We thank two anonymous reviewers for constructive
   comments that helped improve this manuscript.
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NR 119
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Z9 22
U1 0
U2 16
PU NATL ACAD SCIENCES
PI WASHINGTON
PA 2101 CONSTITUTION AVE NW, WASHINGTON, DC 20418 USA
SN 0027-8424
EI 1091-6490
J9 P NATL ACAD SCI USA
JI Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U. S. A.
PD NOV 24
PY 2020
VL 117
IS 47
BP 29748
EP 29758
DI 10.1073/pnas.2008256117
PG 11
WC Multidisciplinary Sciences
WE Science Citation Index Expanded (SCI-EXPANDED); Social Science Citation Index (SSCI)
SC Science & Technology - Other Topics
GA OY1AU
UT WOS:000593986600021
PM 33168735
OA Green Submitted, hybrid
DA 2026-06-14
ER

PT J
AU Yokohata, T
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AF Yokohata, Tokuta
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   Pokhrel, Yadu
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   Okada, Masashi
   Satoh, Yusuke
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   Fujimori, Shinichiro
   Felfelani, Farshid
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   Hanasaki, Naota
   Takahashi, Kiyoshi
   Yamagata, Yoshiki
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TI MIROC-INTEG-LAND version 1: a global biogeochemical land surface model
   with human water management, crop growth, and land-use change
SO GEOSCIENTIFIC MODEL DEVELOPMENT
LA English
DT Article
ID EARTH SYSTEM MODEL; CLIMATE-CHANGE; PARAMETERIZATION SIB2; STOMATAL
   CONDUCTANCE; TERRESTRIAL GROSS; ATMOSPHERIC GCMS; COUPLED MODEL; CARBON
   BUDGET; COVER CHANGE; FOOD DEMAND
AB Future changes in the climate system could have significant impacts on the natural environment and human activities, which in turn affect changes in the climate system. In the interaction between natural and human systems under climate change conditions, land use is one of the elements that play an essential role. On the one hand, future climate change will affect the availability of water and food, which may impact land-use change. On the other hand, human-induced land-use change can affect the climate system through biogeophysical and biogeochemical effects. To investigate these interrelationships, we developed MIROC-INTEG-LAND (MIROC INTEGrated LAND surface model version 1), an integrated model that combines the land surface component of global climate model MIROC (Model for Interdisciplinary Research on Climate) with water resources, crop production, land ecosystem, and land-use models. The most significant feature of MIROC-INTEG-LAND is that the land surface model that describes the processes of the energy and water balance, human water management, and crop growth incorporates a land use decision-making model based on economic activities. In MIROC-INTEG-LAND, spatially detailed information regarding water resources and crop yields is reflected in the prediction of future land-use change, which cannot be considered in the conventional integrated assessment models. In this paper, we introduce the details and interconnections of the submodels of MIROC-INTEG-LAND, compare historical simulations with observations, and identify various interactions between the submodels. By evaluating the historical simulation, we have confirmed that the model reproduces the observed states well. The future simulations indicate that changes in climate have significant impacts on crop yields, land use, and irrigation water demand. The newly developed MIROC-INTEG-LAND could be combined with atmospheric and ocean models to develop an integrated earth system model to simulate the interactions among coupled natural-human earth system components.
C1 [Yokohata, Tokuta; Ito, Akihiko; Satoh, Yusuke; Hanasaki, Naota; Yamagata, Yoshiki; Emori, Seita] Natl Inst Environm Studies, Ctr Global Environm Res, Tsukuba, Ibaraki 3058506, Japan.
   [Kinoshita, Tsuguki; Masaki, Yoshimitsu] Ibaraki Univ, Coll Agr, Ami, Ibaraki 300393, Japan.
   [Sakurai, Gen; Iizumi, Toshichika; Nishimori, Motoki] Natl Agr & Food Res Org, Inst Agroenvironm Sci, Tsukuba, Ibaraki 3058604, Japan.
   [Pokhrel, Yadu; Felfelani, Farshid] Michigan State Univ, Dept Civil & Environm Engn, E Lansing, MI 48824 USA.
   [Okada, Masashi; Takahashi, Kiyoshi] Natl Inst Environm Studies, Ctr Social & Environm Syst Res, Tsukuba, Ibaraki 3058506, Japan.
   [Kato, Etsushi] Inst Appl Energy, Tokyo 105003, Japan.
   [Nitta, Tomoko] Univ Tokyo, Inst Ind Sci, Kashiwa, Chiba 2778574, Japan.
   [Fujimori, Shinichiro] Kyoto Univ, Grad Sch Engn, Kyoto 6158540, Japan.
   [Masaki, Yoshimitsu] Hirosaki Univ, Grad Sch Sci & Technol, Hirosaki, Aomori 0368561, Japan.
C3 National Institute for Environmental Studies - Japan; Ibaraki
   University; National Agriculture & Food Research Organization - Japan;
   Michigan State University; National Institute for Environmental Studies
   - Japan; University of Tokyo; Kyoto University; Hirosaki University
RP Yokohata, T (corresponding author), Natl Inst Environm Studies, Ctr Global Environm Res, Tsukuba, Ibaraki 3058506, Japan.
EM yokohata@nies.go.jp
RI Emori, Seita/D-1950-2012; Felfelani, Farshid/J-2282-2019; Hanasaki,
   Naota/C-2932-2009; Nitta, Tomoko/AAD-8244-2022; Yokohata,
   Tokuta/N-4540-2019; SATOH, Yusuke/NIU-5230-2025; Yamagata,
   Yoshiki/T-6489-2019; TAKAHASHI, KIYOSHI/AFN-9175-2022; Ito,
   Akihiko/P-2624-2017; Pokhrel, Yadu/J-6440-2013; Kato,
   Etsushi/Q-2623-2018; Fujimori, Shinichiro/A-1288-2015
OI Emori, Seita/0000-0002-9949-5167; Nitta, Tomoko/0000-0001-9918-4716;
   Yokohata, Tokuta/0000-0001-7346-7988; SATOH, Yusuke/0000-0001-6419-7330;
   TAKAHASHI, KIYOSHI/0000-0002-0163-545X; Ito,
   Akihiko/0000-0001-5265-0791; Pokhrel, Yadu/0000-0002-1367-216X; Kato,
   Etsushi/0000-0001-8814-804X; Sakurai, Gen/0000-0002-6667-3924; 
FU Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science and Technology of Japan
   (Integrated Research Program for Advancing Climate Models)
   [JPMXD0717935715]; Ministry of the Environment of Japan (The Environment
   Research and Technology Development Fund) (S-10) [JPMEERF12S11000]
FX This research has been supported by the Ministry of Education, Culture,
   Sports, Science and Technology of Japan (Integrated Research Program for
   Advancing Climate Models) (grant no. JPMXD0717935715) and the Ministry
   of the Environment of Japan (The Environment Research and Technology
   Development Fund (S-10, grant no. JPMEERF12S11000)).
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NR 139
TC 41
Z9 42
U1 2
U2 24
PU COPERNICUS GESELLSCHAFT MBH
PI GOTTINGEN
PA BAHNHOFSALLEE 1E, GOTTINGEN, 37081, GERMANY
SN 1991-959X
EI 1991-9603
J9 GEOSCI MODEL DEV
JI Geosci. Model Dev.
PD OCT 2
PY 2020
VL 13
IS 10
BP 4713
EP 4747
DI 10.5194/gmd-13-4713-2020
PG 35
WC Geosciences, Multidisciplinary
WE Science Citation Index Expanded (SCI-EXPANDED); Social Science Citation Index (SSCI)
SC Geology
GA NZ5LA
UT WOS:000577142700003
OA Green Submitted, gold
DA 2026-06-14
ER

PT J
AU Guiet, J
   Galbraith, ED
   Bianchi, D
   Cheung, WWL
AF Guiet, J.
   Galbraith, E. D.
   Bianchi, D.
   Cheung, W. W. L.
TI Bioenergetic influence on the historical development and decline of
   industrial fisheries
SO ICES JOURNAL OF MARINE SCIENCE
LA English
DT Article
DE environmental driver; fisheries catch; large marine ecosystems; marine
   ecosystem model
ID MARINE PRIMARY PRODUCTION; BODY-MASS; OCEAN; TEMPERATURE; SCALE; CATCH
AB The global wild capture fishery expanded rapidly over the 20th century as fishing technology improved, peaking in the 1990s as most fisheries transitioned to fully- or over-exploited status. Historical records for individual large marine ecosystems (LMEs) tend to echo this same progression, but with local variations in the timing and abruptness of catch peaks. Here, we provide objective descriptions of these catch peaks, which generally progressed from high- to low-latitude LMEs, and attribute the temporal progression to a combination of economic and ecological factors. We show that the ecological factors can be remarkably strong by using a spatially resolved, observationally-constrained, coupled macroecological-economic model to which we impose an idealized, globally homogeneous increase in catchability. The globally-uniform technology creep produces a spatial progression of fishing from high-to-low latitudes that is similar to observations, primarily due to the impact of temperature on ecosystem metabolism. In colder LMEs, low respiration rates allow the build-up of larger pristine standing stocks, so that high-latitude fisheries are profitable earlier, at lower levels of fishing technology. We suggest that these bioenergetic characteristics contributed significantly to the historical progression of this human-ecological system.
C1 [Guiet, J.; Galbraith, E. D.; Bianchi, D.] Univ Autonoma Barcelona, Inst Ciencia & Tecnol Ambientals ICTA UAB, Barcelona 08193, Spain.
   [Guiet, J.] Univ Calif Los Angeles, Dept Atmospher & Ocean Sci, Los Angeles, CA 90095 USA.
   [Galbraith, E. D.] Inst Catalana Recerca & Estudis Avancats ICREA, Barcelona 08010, Spain.
   [Galbraith, E. D.] McGill Univ, Dept Earth & Planetary Sci, Montreal, PQ, Canada.
   [Cheung, W. W. L.] Univ British Columbia, Nippon Fdn Nereus Program, Inst Oceans & Fisheries, Vancouver, BC V6T 1Z4, Canada.
   [Cheung, W. W. L.] Univ British Columbia, Changing Ocean Res Unit, Inst Oceans & Fisheries, Vancouver, BC V6T 1Z4, Canada.
C3 Autonomous University of Barcelona; University of California System;
   University of California Los Angeles; ICREA; McGill University;
   University of British Columbia; University of British Columbia
RP Guiet, J (corresponding author), Univ Autonoma Barcelona, Inst Ciencia & Tecnol Ambientals ICTA UAB, Barcelona 08193, Spain.; Guiet, J (corresponding author), Univ Calif Los Angeles, Dept Atmospher & Ocean Sci, Los Angeles, CA 90095 USA.
EM jerome.c.guiet@gmail.com
RI ; Galbraith, Eric/F-9469-2014; Cheung, William/F-5104-2013
OI Bianchi, Daniele/0000-0002-6621-0858; 
FU European Research Council (ERC) under the European Union's Horizon 2020
   research and innovation programme [682602]; Spanish Ministry of Economy
   and Competitiveness, through the Maria de Maeztu Programme for
   Centres/Units of Excellence in RD [MDM-2015-0552]; NASA grant TunaScape
   [80NSSC17K0290]; California Department of Resources-Ocean Protection
   Council [C0100400]
FX This study has received funding from the European Research Council (ERC)
   under the European Union's Horizon 2020 research and innovation
   programme (682602) and support from the Spanish Ministry of Economy and
   Competitiveness, through the Maria de Maeztu Programme for Centres/Units
   of Excellence in RD (MDM-2015-0552). JG and DB acknowledge support from
   NASA grant TunaScape (award 80NSSC17K0290) and California Department of
   Resources-Ocean Protection Council (C0100400).
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NR 48
TC 7
Z9 7
U1 0
U2 1
PU OXFORD UNIV PRESS
PI OXFORD
PA GREAT CLARENDON ST, OXFORD OX2 6DP, ENGLAND
SN 1054-3139
EI 1095-9289
J9 ICES J MAR SCI
JI ICES J. Mar. Sci.
PD SEP
PY 2020
VL 77
IS 5
BP 1854
EP 1863
DI 10.1093/icesjms/fsaa044
PG 10
WC Fisheries; Marine & Freshwater Biology; Oceanography
WE Science Citation Index Expanded (SCI-EXPANDED)
SC Fisheries; Marine & Freshwater Biology; Oceanography
GA OH6QK
UT WOS:000582719500024
OA Green Submitted, hybrid
DA 2026-06-14
ER



PT J
AU Molotoks, A
   Henry, R
   Stehfest, E
   Doelman, J
   Havlik, P
   Krisztin, T
   Alexander, P
   Dawson, TP
   Smith, P
AF Molotoks, Amy
   Henry, Roslyn
   Stehfest, Elke
   Doelman, Jonathan
   Havlik, Petr
   Krisztin, Tamas
   Alexander, Peter
   Dawson, Terence P.
   Smith, Pete
TI Comparing the impact of future cropland expansion on global biodiversity
   and carbon storage across models and scenarios
SO PHILOSOPHICAL TRANSACTIONS OF THE ROYAL SOCIETY B-BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES
LA English
DT Article
DE land-use change; biodiversity; carbon storage; integrated models
ID LAND-USE CHANGE; CLIMATE-CHANGE; FOOD SECURITY; STOCKS; AGRICULTURE;
   MITIGATION; YIELDS
AB Land-use change is a direct driver of biodiversity and carbon storage loss. Projections of future land use often include notable expansion of cropland areas in response to changes in climate and food demand, although there are large uncertainties in results between models and scenarios. This study examines these uncertainties by comparing three different socio-economic scenarios (SSP1-3) across three models (IMAGE, GLOBIOM and PLUMv2). It assesses the impacts on biodiversity metrics and direct carbon loss from biomass and soil as a direct consequence of cropland expansion. Results show substantial variation between models and scenarios, with little overlap across all nine projections. Although SSP1 projects the least impact, there are still significant impacts projected. IMAGE and GLOBIOM project the greatest impact across carbon storage and biodiversity metrics due to both extent and location of cropland expansion. Furthermore, for all the biodiversity and carbon metrics used, there is a greater proportion of variance explained by the model used. This demonstrates the importance of improving the accuracy of land-based models. Incorporating effects of land-use change in biodiversity impact assessments would also help better prioritize future protection of biodiverse and carbon-rich areas. This article is part of the theme issue 'Climate change and ecosystems: threats, opportunities and solutions'.
C1 [Molotoks, Amy; Smith, Pete] Univ Aberdeen, Inst Biol & Environm Sci, 23 St Machar Dr, Aberdeen AB24 3UU, Scotland.
   [Molotoks, Amy] Univ York, Stockholm Environm Inst York, Dept Environm & Geog, York YO10 5NG, N Yorkshire, England.
   [Henry, Roslyn; Alexander, Peter] Univ Edinburgh, Royal Dick Sch Vet Studies, Sch Geosci, Edinburgh, Midlothian, Scotland.
   [Alexander, Peter] Univ Edinburgh, Royal Dick Sch Vet Studies, Global Acad Agr & Food Secur, Edinburgh, Midlothian, Scotland.
   [Stehfest, Elke; Doelman, Jonathan] PBL Netherlands Environm Assessment Agcy, Bezuidenhoutseweg 30, NL-2594 AV The Hague, Netherlands.
   [Havlik, Petr; Krisztin, Tamas] IIASA, Schlosspl 1, A-2361 Laxenburg, Austria.
   [Dawson, Terence P.] Kings Coll London, Dept Geog, London WC2R 2LS, England.
C3 University of Aberdeen; University of York - UK; University of
   Edinburgh; University of Edinburgh; International Institute for Applied
   Systems Analysis (IIASA); University of London; King's College London
RP Molotoks, A (corresponding author), Univ Aberdeen, Inst Biol & Environm Sci, 23 St Machar Dr, Aberdeen AB24 3UU, Scotland.; Molotoks, A (corresponding author), Univ York, Stockholm Environm Inst York, Dept Environm & Geog, York YO10 5NG, N Yorkshire, England.
EM amy.molotoks@york.ac.uk
RI ; Dawson, Terence/E-4724-2011; Alexander, Peter/AGE-8260-2022; Smith,
   Pete/G-1041-2010; Havlík, Petr/H-1521-2014; Stehfest,
   Elke/AAZ-4121-2020; Krisztin, Tamás/ABE-1438-2020; Molotoks,
   Amy/KHY-4581-2024
OI Havlik, Petr/0000-0001-5551-5085; Dawson, Terence/0000-0002-4314-1378;
   Doelman, Jonathan/0000-0002-6842-573X; Alexander,
   Peter/0000-0001-6010-1186; Smith, Pete/0000-0002-3784-1124; Henry,
   Roslyn/0000-0003-2942-6753; Krisztin, Tamás/0000-0002-9241-8628;
   Molotoks, Amy/0000-0002-1168-1580
FU Belmont Forum/FACCE-JPI DEVIL project [NE/M021327/1]; NERC
   [NE/P019455/1]; Biotechnology and Biological Sciences Research Council
   (BBSRC) EastBio Studentship [BB/M010996/1]; Global Challenges Research
   Fund Trade, Development and the Environment Hub project [ES/S008160/1];
   UK's Global Food Security Programme project 'Resilience of the UK food
   system to Global Shocks' [BB/N020707/1]; Biotechnology and Biological
   Sciences Research Council [BB/N020707/1, 1654839] Funding Source:
   researchfish; Economic and Social Research Council [ES/S008160/1]
   Funding Source: researchfish; Natural Environment Research Council
   [NE/P019455/1, NE/M021327/1] Funding Source: researchfish; BBSRC
   [BB/N020707/1, 1654839] Funding Source: UKRI; GCRF [ES/S008160/1]
   Funding Source: UKRI; NERC [NE/M021327/1, NE/P019455/1] Funding Source:
   UKRI
FX This work contributes to the Belmont Forum/FACCE-JPI DEVIL project
   (grant no. NE/M021327/1) and the NERC funded Soils-R-GGREAT project
   (grant no. NE/P019455/1). A.M. is supported by a Biotechnology and
   Biological Sciences Research Council (BBSRC) EastBio Studentship
   (http://www.eastscotbiodtp.ac.uk/) (grant no. BB/M010996/1) and the
   Global Challenges Research Fund Trade, Development and the Environment
   Hub project (grant no. ES/S008160/1). P.A. and R.H. are supported by the
   UK's Global Food Security Programme project 'Resilience of the UK food
   system to Global Shocks' (grant no. RUGS, BB/N020707/1).
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NR 64
TC 30
Z9 33
U1 3
U2 89
PU ROYAL SOC
PI LONDON
PA 6-9 CARLTON HOUSE TERRACE, LONDON SW1Y 5AG, ENGLAND
SN 0962-8436
EI 1471-2970
J9 PHILOS T R SOC B
JI Philos. Trans. R. Soc. B-Biol. Sci.
PD MAR 16
PY 2020
VL 375
IS 1794
SI SI
AR 20190189
DI 10.1098/rstb.2019.0189
PG 10
WC Biology
WE Science Citation Index Expanded (SCI-EXPANDED); Social Science Citation Index (SSCI)
SC Life Sciences & Biomedicine - Other Topics
GA KF9BO
UT WOS:000509531700020
PM 31983336
OA Green Submitted, Bronze
DA 2026-06-14
ER

PT J
AU Harmsen, JHM
   van Vuuren, DP
   Nayak, DR
   Hof, AF
   Höglund-Isaksson, L
   Lucas, PL
   Nielsen, JB
   Smith, P
   Stehfest, E
AF Harmsen, J. H. M.
   van Vuuren, Detlef P.
   Nayak, Dali R.
   Hof, Andries F.
   Hoeglund-Isaksson, Lena
   Lucas, Paul L.
   Nielsen, Jens B.
   Smith, Pete
   Stehfest, Elke
TI Long-term marginal abatement cost curves of non-CO2
   greenhouse gases
SO ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCE & POLICY
LA English
DT Article
DE Non-CO2; Mitigation; MAC curves; Climate policy
ID NITROUS-OXIDE EMISSIONS; DIETARY NITRATE SUPPLEMENTATION; METHANE
   EMISSIONS; N2O EMISSIONS; CATALYTIC DECOMPOSITION; MANAGEMENT-PRACTICES;
   MITIGATION OPTIONS; CLIMATE-CHANGE; RICE FIELDS; CH4
AB This study presents a new comprehensive set of long-term Marginal Abatement Cost (MAC) curves of all major non-CO2 greenhouse gas emission sources. The work builds on existing short-term MAC curve datasets and recent literature on individual mitigation measures. The new MAC curves include current technology and costs information as well as estimates of technology development and removal of implementation barriers to capture long-term dynamics. Compared to earlier work, we find a higher projected maximum reduction potential (MRP) of nitrous oxide (N2O) and a lower MRP of methane (CH4). The combined MRP for all non-CO2 gases is similar but has been extended to also capture mitigation measures that can be realized at higher implementation costs. When applying the new MAC curves in a cost-optimal, integrated assessment model-based 2.6 W/m(2) scenario, the total non-CO2 mitigation is projected to be 10.9 Mt CO2 equivalents in 2050 (i.e. 58% reduction compared to baseline emissions) and 15.6 Mt CO(2)equivalents in 2100 (i.e. a 71% reduction). In applying the new MAC curves, we account for inertia in thline implementation speed of mitigation measures. Although this does not strongly impact results in an optimal strategy, it means that the contribution of non-CO2 mitigation could be more limited if ambitious climate policy is delayed.
C1 [Harmsen, J. H. M.; van Vuuren, Detlef P.; Hof, Andries F.; Lucas, Paul L.; Nielsen, Jens B.; Stehfest, Elke] PBL Netherlands Environm Assessment Agcy, Bezuidenhoutseweg 30, NL-2594 AV The Hague, Netherlands.
   [Lucas, Paul L.] Univ Utrecht, Copernicus Inst Sustainable Dev, Princetonlaan 8a, NL-3584 CB Utrecht, Netherlands.
   [Nayak, Dali R.; Smith, Pete] Univ Aberdeen, Inst Biol & Environm Sci, Sch Biol Sci, 23 St Machar Dr, Aberdeen AB24 3UU, Scotland.
   [Hoeglund-Isaksson, Lena] Int Inst Appl Syst Anal, Air Qual & Greenhouse Gases Program, A-2361 Laxenburg, Austria.
C3 Utrecht University; University of Aberdeen; International Institute for
   Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA)
RP Harmsen, JHM (corresponding author), PBL Netherlands Environm Assessment Agcy, Bezuidenhoutseweg 30, NL-2594 AV The Hague, Netherlands.
EM Mathijs.harmsen@pbl.nl
RI Stehfest, Elke/AAZ-4121-2020; van Vuuren, Detlef/A-4764-2009; Hof,
   Andries/AFB-4199-2022; Smith, Pete/G-1041-2010
OI van Vuuren, Detlef/0000-0003-0398-2831; Hof,
   Andries/0000-0002-7568-5038; Lucas, Paul/0000-0003-0292-7830; Smith,
   Pete/0000-0002-3784-1124; Nayak, Dali Rani/0000-0003-0653-0662;
   Höglund-Isaksson, Lena/0000-0001-7514-3135
FU KR foundation [G-1503-01733]; Climate Works Foundation [IIA/17/1303];
   Natural Environment Research Council [NE/P019455/1] Funding Source:
   researchfish; NERC [NE/P019455/1] Funding Source: UKRI
FX The research leading to these results has received funding from the KR
   foundation(#G-1503-01733) and the Climate Works Foundation
   (IIA/17/1303). We would like to gratefully thank them and our colleagues
   who have directly or indirectly supported this work.
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NR 92
TC 57
Z9 69
U1 7
U2 111
PU ELSEVIER SCI LTD
PI OXFORD
PA THE BOULEVARD, LANGFORD LANE, KIDLINGTON, OXFORD OX5 1GB, OXON, ENGLAND
SN 1462-9011
EI 1873-6416
J9 ENVIRON SCI POLICY
JI Environ. Sci. Policy
PD SEP
PY 2019
VL 99
BP 136
EP 149
DI 10.1016/j.envsci.2019.05.013
PG 14
WC Environmental Sciences
WE Science Citation Index Expanded (SCI-EXPANDED); Social Science Citation Index (SSCI)
SC Environmental Sciences & Ecology
GA IH4YV
UT WOS:000474498900015
OA Green Submitted
DA 2026-06-14
ER

PT J
AU Daioglou, V
   Doelman, JC
   Wicke, B
   Faaij, A
   van Vuuren, DP
AF Daioglou, Vassilis
   Doelman, Jonathan C.
   Wicke, Birka
   Faaij, Andre
   van Vuuren, Detlef P.
TI Integrated assessment of biomass supply and demand in climate change
   mitigation scenarios
SO GLOBAL ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE-HUMAN AND POLICY DIMENSIONS
LA English
DT Article
DE Bioenergy; Scenario analysis; Climate policy; Land use; Energy system;
   Biochemicals
ID LAND-USE CHANGE; TRANSPORTATION NETWORK; ETHANOL DISTILLERIES; CARBON
   CAPTURE; CO2 CAPTURE; ENERGY; EMISSIONS; BIOENERGY; BIOFUELS; STORAGE
AB Biomass is often seen as a key component of future energy systems as it can be used for heat and electricity production, as a transport fuel, and a feedstock for chemicals. Furthermore, it can be used in combination with carbon capture and storage to provide so-called "negative emissions". At the same time, however, its production will require land, possibly impacting food security, land-based carbon stocks, and other environmental services. Thus, the strategies adopted in the supply, conversion, and use of biomass have a significant impact on its effectiveness as a climate change mitigation measure. We use the IMAGE 3.0 integrated assessment model to project three different global, long term scenarios spanning different socioeconomic futures with varying rates of population growth, economic growth, and technological change, and investigate the role of biomass in meeting strict climate targets. Using these scenarios we highlight different possibilities for biomass supply and demand, and provide insights on the requirements and challenges for the effective use of this resource as a climate change mitigation measure. The results show that in scenarios meeting the 1.5 degrees C target, biomass could exceed 20% of final energy consumption, or 115-180 EJ(Prim)/yr in 2050. Such a supply of bioenergy can only be achieved without extreme levels land use change if agricultural yields improve significantly and effective land zoning is implemented. Furthermore, the results highlight that strict mitigation targets are contingent on the availability of advanced technologies such as lignocellulosic fuels and carbon capture and storage.
C1 [Daioglou, Vassilis; Doelman, Jonathan C.; van Vuuren, Detlef P.] PBL Netherlands Environm Assessment Agcy, POB 30314, NL-2500 GH The Hague, Netherlands.
   [Daioglou, Vassilis; Wicke, Birka; van Vuuren, Detlef P.] Univ Utrecht, Copernicus Inst Sustainable Dev, Princetonlaan 8a, NL-3584 CB Utrecht, Netherlands.
   [Faaij, Andre] Univ Groningen, ESRIG, Blauwborgie 6,POB 221, NL-9700 AE Groningen, Netherlands.
C3 Utrecht University; University of Groningen
RP Daioglou, V (corresponding author), PBL Netherlands Environm Assessment Agcy, POB 30314, NL-2500 The Hague, Netherlands.
EM vassilis.daioglou@pbl.nl
RI Daioglou, Vassilis/L-7262-2013; Wicke, Birka/D-3102-2011; van Vuuren,
   Detlef/A-4764-2009; Faaij, André/AAE-7253-2019
OI Daioglou, Vassilis/0000-0002-6028-352X; Doelman,
   Jonathan/0000-0002-6842-573X; Wicke, Birka/0000-0003-0445-0984; van
   Vuuren, Detlef/0000-0003-0398-2831; 
FU Dutch ministry of 'Economic Affairs, Agriculture and Innovation'; Dutch
   ministry of 'Infrastructure and Environment'
FX This work was conducted within the research program "Knowledge
   Infrastructure for Sustainable Biomass" and was funded by the Dutch
   ministries of 'Economic Affairs, Agriculture and Innovation' and
   'Infrastructure and Environment'.
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NR 56
TC 169
Z9 184
U1 2
U2 125
PU ELSEVIER SCI LTD
PI London
PA 125 London Wall, London, ENGLAND
SN 0959-3780
EI 1872-9495
J9 GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG
JI Glob. Environ. Change-Human Policy Dimens.
PD JAN
PY 2019
VL 54
BP 88
EP 101
DI 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2018.11.012
PG 14
WC Environmental Sciences; Environmental Studies; Geography
WE Science Citation Index Expanded (SCI-EXPANDED); Social Science Citation Index (SSCI)
SC Environmental Sciences & Ecology; Geography
GA HL1OI
UT WOS:000458468400010
OA Green Submitted, Bronze
HC Y
HP N
DA 2026-06-14
ER

PT J
AU Bijl, DL
   Biemans, H
   Bogaart, PW
   Dekker, SC
   Doelman, JC
   Stehfest, E
   van Vuuren, DP
AF Bijl, David L.
   Biemans, Hester
   Bogaart, Patrick W.
   Dekker, Stefan C.
   Doelman, Jonathan C.
   Stehfest, Elke
   van Vuuren, Detlef P.
TI A Global Analysis of Future Water Deficit Based On Different Allocation
   Mechanisms
SO WATER RESOURCES RESEARCH
LA English
DT Article
DE water demand; socioeconomic development; water scarcity; irrigation;
   water-food-energy nexus; integrated assessment model
ID SHARED SOCIOECONOMIC PATHWAYS; SURFACE-WATER; GROUNDWATER DEPLETION;
   SPATIALLY-EXPLICIT; CLIMATE-CHANGE; MODEL; AVAILABILITY; POPULATION;
   RESOURCES; SCARCITY
AB Freshwater scarcity is already an urgent problem in some areas but may increase significantly in the future. To assess future developments, we need to understand how future population growth, agricultural production patterns, energy use, economic development, and climate change may impact the global freshwater cycle. Integrated models provide opportunities for quantitative assessment. In this paper, we further integrate models of hydrology and economics, using the models IMAGE and LPJmL, with explicit accounting for (1) electricity, industry, and municipal and irrigation water use; (2) intersectoral water allocation rules at the 0.5 degrees x0.5 degrees grid scale; and (3) withdrawal, consumption, and return flows. With the integration between hydrology and economy we are able to understand competition dynamics between the different freshwater users at the basin and grid scale. We run model projections for three Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs), more efficient water use, and no expansion of irrigated areas to understand the competition dynamics of these different allocation mechanisms. We conclude that (1) global water withdrawal is projected to increase by 12% in SSP-1, 26% in SSP-2, and 29% in SSP-3 during 2010-2050; (2) water deficits (demand minus allocated water) for nonagricultural uses are small in 2010 but become significant around 2050; (3) interannual variability of precipitation results in variability of water deficits; (4) water use efficiency improvements reduce water withdrawal but have little impact on water deficits; and (5) priority rules at the local level have a large effect on water deficits, whereas limiting the expansion of irrigation has virtually no effect.
C1 [Bijl, David L.; Bogaart, Patrick W.; Dekker, Stefan C.; van Vuuren, Detlef P.] Univ Utrecht, Copernicus Inst Sustainable Dev, Utrecht, Netherlands.
   [Biemans, Hester; Doelman, Jonathan C.; Stehfest, Elke; van Vuuren, Detlef P.] PBL Netherlands Environm Assessment Agcy, The Hague, Netherlands.
   [Biemans, Hester] Wageningen Univ & Res, Water & Food Res Grp, Wageningen, Netherlands.
   [Dekker, Stefan C.] Open Univ, Fac Management Sci & Technol, Heerlen, Netherlands.
C3 Utrecht University; Wageningen University & Research; Open University
   Netherlands
RP Bijl, DL (corresponding author), Univ Utrecht, Copernicus Inst Sustainable Dev, Utrecht, Netherlands.
EM dlbijl@gmail.com
RI Dekker, Stefan/F-5581-2013; van Vuuren, Detlef/A-4764-2009; Stehfest,
   Elke/AAZ-4121-2020
OI Dekker, Stefan/0000-0001-7764-2464; Doelman,
   Jonathan/0000-0002-6842-573X; van Vuuren, Detlef/0000-0003-0398-2831; 
FU Rabobank Foundation
FX The research leading to these results has received funding from the
   Rabobank Foundation. The data shown in the figures are made available in
   the supporting information.
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NR 60
TC 60
Z9 67
U1 7
U2 75
PU AMER GEOPHYSICAL UNION
PI WASHINGTON
PA 2000 FLORIDA AVE NW, WASHINGTON, DC 20009 USA
SN 0043-1397
EI 1944-7973
J9 WATER RESOUR RES
JI Water Resour. Res.
PD AUG
PY 2018
VL 54
IS 8
BP 5803
EP 5824
DI 10.1029/2017WR021688
PG 22
WC Environmental Sciences; Limnology; Water Resources
WE Science Citation Index Expanded (SCI-EXPANDED); Social Science Citation Index (SSCI)
SC Environmental Sciences & Ecology; Marine & Freshwater Biology; Water
   Resources
GA GU6UJ
UT WOS:000445451800036
OA Green Submitted, hybrid
DA 2026-06-14
ER

PT J
AU Sutanudjaja, EH
   van Beek, R
   Wanders, N
   Wada, Y
   Bosmans, JHC
   Drost, N
   van der Ent, RJ
   de Graaf, IEM
   Hoch, JM
   de Jong, K
   Karssenberg, D
   López, PL
   Pessenteiner, S
   Schmitz, O
   Straatsma, MW
   Vannametee, E
   Wisser, D
   Bierkens, MFP
AF Sutanudjaja, Edwin H.
   van Beek, Rens
   Wanders, Niko
   Wada, Yoshihide
   Bosmans, Joyce H. C.
   Drost, Niels
   van der Ent, Ruud J.
   de Graaf, Inge E. M.
   Hoch, Jannis M.
   de Jong, Kor
   Karssenberg, Derek
   Lopez, Patricia Lopez
   Pessenteiner, Stefanie
   Schmitz, Oliver
   Straatsma, Menno W.
   Vannametee, Ekkamol
   Wisser, Dominik
   Bierkens, Marc F. P.
TI PCR-GLOBWB 2: a 5 arcmin global hydrological and water resources model
SO GEOSCIENTIFIC MODEL DEVELOPMENT
LA English
DT Article
ID SURFACE-WATER; GROUNDWATER DEPLETION; INTEGRATED MODEL; CLIMATE;
   DISCHARGE; AVAILABILITY; ABSTRACTIONS; PERFORMANCE; VALIDATION;
   RESERVOIRS
AB We present PCR-GLOBWB 2, a global hydrology and water resources model. Compared to previous versions of PCR-GLOBWB, this version fully integrates water use. Sector-specific water demand, groundwater and surface water withdrawal, water consumption, and return flows are dynamically calculated at every time step and interact directly with the simulated hydrology. PCR-GLOBWB 2 has been fully rewritten in Python and PCRaster Python and has a modular structure, allowing easier replacement, maintenance, and development of model components. PCR-GLOBWB 2 has been implemented at 5 arcmin resolution, but a version parameterized at 30 arcmin resolution is also available. Both versions are available as open-source codes on https://github. com/UU-Hydro/PCR-GLOBWB_model (Sutanudjaja et al., 2017a). PCR-GLOBWB 2 has its own routines for groundwater dynamics and surface water routing. These relatively simple routines can alternatively be replaced by dynamically coupling PCR-GLOBWB 2 to a global two-layer groundwater model and 1-D-2-D hydrodynamic models. Here, we describe the main components of the model, compare results of the 30 and 5 arcmin versions, and evaluate their model performance using Global Runoff Data Centre discharge data. Results show that model performance of the 5 arcmin version is notably better than that of the 30 arcmin version. Furthermore, we compare simulated time series of total water storage (TWS) of the 5 arcmin model with those observed with GRACE, showing similar negative trends in areas of prevalent groundwater depletion. Also, we find that simulated total water withdrawal matches reasonably well with reported water withdrawal from AQUASTAT, while water withdrawal by source and sector provide mixed results.
C1 [Sutanudjaja, Edwin H.; van Beek, Rens; Wanders, Niko; Wada, Yoshihide; Bosmans, Joyce H. C.; van der Ent, Ruud J.; Hoch, Jannis M.; de Jong, Kor; Karssenberg, Derek; Lopez, Patricia Lopez; Schmitz, Oliver; Straatsma, Menno W.; Bierkens, Marc F. P.] Univ Utrecht, Fac Geosci, Dept Phys Geog, Utrecht, Netherlands.
   [Wada, Yoshihide] Int Inst Appl Syst Anal, Laxenburg, Austria.
   [Drost, Niels] Netherlands eSci Ctr, Amsterdam, Netherlands.
   [de Graaf, Inge E. M.] Univ Freiburg, Fac Environm & Nat Resources, Chair Environm Hydrol Syst, Freiburg, Germany.
   [Hoch, Jannis M.; Lopez, Patricia Lopez] Deltares, Unit Inland Water Syst, Delft, Netherlands.
   [Pessenteiner, Stefanie] Karl Franzens Univ Graz, Dept Geog & Reg Sci, Graz, Austria.
   [Vannametee, Ekkamol] Chulalongkorn Univ, Dept Geog, Bangkok, Thailand.
   [Wisser, Dominik] Food & Agr Org United Nat, Rome, Italy.
   [Wisser, Dominik] Univ New Hampshire, Inst Study Earth Oceans &Space, Durham, NH 03824 USA.
   [Bierkens, Marc F. P.] Deltares, Unit Soil & Groundwater Syst, Utrecht, Netherlands.
C3 Utrecht University; International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis
   (IIASA); University of Freiburg; Deltares; University of Graz;
   Chulalongkorn University; Food & Agriculture Organization of the United
   Nations (FAO); University System Of New Hampshire; University of New
   Hampshire; Deltares
RP Sutanudjaja, EH (corresponding author), Univ Utrecht, Fac Geosci, Dept Phys Geog, Utrecht, Netherlands.
EM E.H.Sutanudjaja@uu.nl
RI ; Bierkens, Marc F.P/JAC-9727-2023; van der Ent, Ruud/K-8593-2016;
   Schmitz, Oliver/I-7007-2019; De Graaf, Inge/AAG-7199-2019; Vannametee,
   Ekkamol/AGY-7779-2022; de Jong, Kor/AAC-6235-2020; Hoch,
   Jannis/N-7745-2018; Wanders, Niko/AAJ-2334-2021; Van Beek,
   Rens/B-4904-2014; /AGF-8977-2022; Wada, Yoshihide/F-3595-2012
OI Drost, Niels/0000-0001-9795-7981; Bierkens, Marc
   F.P/0000-0002-7411-6562; Straatsma, Menno/0000-0002-2035-301X; Wisser,
   Dominik/0000-0001-8368-3801; van der Ent, Ruud/0000-0001-5450-4333;
   Schmitz, Oliver/0000-0002-0493-851X; Sutanudjaja,
   Edwin/0000-0002-3426-4069; Bosmans, Joyce/0000-0001-7697-5136;
   Karssenberg, Derek/0000-0002-6475-363X; De Graaf,
   Inge/0000-0001-7748-868X; Vannametee, Ekkamol/0000-0002-2259-6234; de
   Jong, Kor/0000-0002-8650-9961; Hoch, Jannis/0000-0003-3570-6436;
   Wanders, Niko/0000-0002-7102-5454; Wada, Yoshihide/0000-0003-4770-2539
FU Netherlands Organisation for Scientific Research (NWO)
FX We thank Utrecht University and various grants and projects that
   directly or indirectly contributed to the development of PCR-GLOBWB 2.
   The authors are very grateful to all the contributors (as acknowledged
   in the references) who provided the data sets used in this study. We
   acknowledge the Netherlands Organisation for Scientific Research (NWO)
   for the grant that enabled us to use the national supercomputer
   Cartesius with the help of SURFsara Amsterdam. The authors thank the two
   anonymous reviewers for their constructive comments and suggestions that
   helped to improve the paper. We are also grateful to the editors for
   their efficient handling of the review process.
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NR 123
TC 416
Z9 463
U1 13
U2 215
PU COPERNICUS GESELLSCHAFT MBH
PI GOTTINGEN
PA BAHNHOFSALLEE 1E, GOTTINGEN, 37081, GERMANY
SN 1991-959X
EI 1991-9603
J9 GEOSCI MODEL DEV
JI Geosci. Model Dev.
PD JUN 20
PY 2018
VL 11
IS 6
BP 2429
EP 2453
DI 10.5194/gmd-11-2429-2018
PG 25
WC Geosciences, Multidisciplinary
WE Science Citation Index Expanded (SCI-EXPANDED)
SC Geology
GA GJ8JT
UT WOS:000435636400003
OA Green Submitted, Green Accepted, gold
HC Y
HP N
DA 2026-06-14
ER

PT J
AU van Vuuren, DP
   Stehfest, E
   Gernaat, DEHJ
   van den Berg, M
   Bijl, DL
   de Boer, HS
   Daioglou, V
   Doelman, JC
   Edelenbosch, OY
   Harmsen, M
   Hof, AF
   van Sluisveld, MAE
AF van Vuuren, Detlef P.
   Stehfest, Elke
   Gernaat, David E. H. J.
   van den Berg, Maarten
   Bijl, David L.
   de Boer, Harmen Sytze
   Daioglou, Vassilis
   Doelman, Jonathan C.
   Edelenbosch, Oreane Y.
   Harmsen, Mathijs
   Hof, Andries F.
   van Sluisveld, Mariesse A. E.
TI Alternative pathways to the 1.5°C target reduce the need for negative
   emission technologies
SO NATURE CLIMATE CHANGE
LA English
DT Article
ID CULTURED MEAT; CO2 EMISSIONS; TEMPORAL DYNAMICS; CARBON; SCENARIOS;
   MODEL; CHALLENGES; CONSISTENT
AB Mitigation scenarios that achieve the ambitious targets included in the Paris Agreement typically rely on greenhouse gas emission reductions combined with net carbon dioxide removal (CDR) from the atmosphere, mostly accomplished through large-scale application of bioenergy with carbon capture and storage, and afforestation. However, CDR strategies face several difficulties such as reliance on underground CO2 storage and competition for land with food production and biodiversity protection. The question arises whether alternative deep mitigation pathways exist. Here, using an integrated assessment model, we explore the impact of alternative pathways that include lifestyle change, additional reduction of non-CO2 greenhouse gases and more rapid electrification of energy demand based on renewable energy. Although these alternatives also face specific difficulties, they are found to significantly reduce the need for CDR, but not fully eliminate it. The alternatives offer a means to diversify transition pathways to meet the Paris Agreement targets, while simultaneously benefiting other sustainability goals.
C1 [van Vuuren, Detlef P.; Stehfest, Elke; Gernaat, David E. H. J.; van den Berg, Maarten; de Boer, Harmen Sytze; Daioglou, Vassilis; Doelman, Jonathan C.; Edelenbosch, Oreane Y.; Harmsen, Mathijs; Hof, Andries F.; van Sluisveld, Mariesse A. E.] PBL Netherlands Environm Assessment Agcy, The Hague, Netherlands.
   [van Vuuren, Detlef P.; Gernaat, David E. H. J.; Bijl, David L.; de Boer, Harmen Sytze; Daioglou, Vassilis; Edelenbosch, Oreane Y.; Harmsen, Mathijs; Hof, Andries F.; van Sluisveld, Mariesse A. E.] Univ Utrecht, Copernicus Inst Sustainable Dev, Utrecht, Netherlands.
C3 Utrecht University
RP Van Vuuren, DP (corresponding author), PBL Netherlands Environm Assessment Agcy, The Hague, Netherlands.; Van Vuuren, DP (corresponding author), Univ Utrecht, Copernicus Inst Sustainable Dev, Utrecht, Netherlands.
EM Detlef.vanvuuren@pbl.nl
RI van Sluisveld, Mariësse/AAF-7452-2021; Hof, Andries/AFB-4199-2022;
   Daioglou, Vassilis/L-7262-2013; van Vuuren, Detlef/A-4764-2009;
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TC 552
Z9 609
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PU NATURE PUBLISHING GROUP
PI LONDON
PA MACMILLAN BUILDING, 4 CRINAN ST, LONDON N1 9XW, ENGLAND
SN 1758-678X
EI 1758-6798
J9 NAT CLIM CHANGE
JI Nat. Clim. Chang.
PD MAY
PY 2018
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IS 5
BP 391
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DI 10.1038/s41558-018-0119-8
PG 10
WC Environmental Sciences; Environmental Studies; Meteorology & Atmospheric
   Sciences
WE Science Citation Index Expanded (SCI-EXPANDED); Social Science Citation Index (SSCI)
SC Environmental Sciences & Ecology; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
GA GE3VB
UT WOS:000431139900021
OA Green Submitted, Bronze
HC Y
HP N
DA 2026-06-14
ER


PT J
AU Verma, M
   Misra, AK
AF Verma, Maitri
   Misra, A. K.
TI Optimal control of anthropogenic carbon dioxide emissions through
   technological options: a modeling study
SO COMPUTATIONAL & APPLIED MATHEMATICS
LA English
DT Article
DE Mathematical model; CO2 gas; Technological options; Optimal control
ID CO2 CAPTURE; FORESTRY RESOURCES; CLIMATE-CHANGE; HUMAN HEALTH;
   POPULATION; MITIGATION; DEPLETION; GAS; ATMOSPHERE; MICROALGAE
AB The anthropogenic emission of carbon dioxide (CO2) is the prime culprit for the menace of global warming. To achieve the goal of mitigation of global warming, it is crucial to curb the anthropogenic carbon dioxide emissions. The prime anthropogenic source of CO2 is fossil fuel burning. In this paper, we propose a nonlinear mathematical model to study the impact of technological options, used for the reduction of CO2 emissions from fossil fuel burning and industrial processes, on the control of atmospheric CO2. In the modeling process, it is assumed that the technological options are implemented to curb the CO2 emissions from the source at a rate proportional to the anthropogenic CO2 emissions. Model analysis reveals that the atmospheric level ofCO(2) can be effectively reduced by increasing the implementation rate of technological options and their efficiency. The strategies which optimally reduce atmospheric CO2 levels while minimizing the cost associated with the implementation of technological options are identified using optimal control theory. Numerical simulation has been carried out to illustrate theoretical results.
C1 [Verma, Maitri; Misra, A. K.] Banaras Hindu Univ, Dept Math, Fac Sci, Varanasi 221005, Uttar Pradesh, India.
C3 Banaras Hindu University (BHU)
RP Misra, AK (corresponding author), Banaras Hindu Univ, Dept Math, Fac Sci, Varanasi 221005, Uttar Pradesh, India.
EM akmisra@bhu.ac.in
RI Verma, Maitri/AGJ-4348-2022
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NR 51
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Z9 34
U1 0
U2 12
PU SPRINGER HEIDELBERG
PI HEIDELBERG
PA TIERGARTENSTRASSE 17, D-69121 HEIDELBERG, GERMANY
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EI 1807-0302
J9 COMPUT APPL MATH
JI Comput. Appl. Math.
PD MAR
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VL 37
IS 1
BP 605
EP 626
DI 10.1007/s40314-016-0364-2
PG 22
WC Mathematics, Applied
WE Science Citation Index Expanded (SCI-EXPANDED)
SC Mathematics
GA FX4XA
UT WOS:000426080800032
DA 2026-06-14
ER

PT J
AU Tokimatsu, K
   Wachtmeister, H
   McLellan, B
   Davidsson, S
   Murakami, S
   Höök, M
   Yasuoka, R
   Nishio, M
AF Tokimatsu, Koji
   Wachtmeister, Henrik
   McLellan, Benjamin
   Davidsson, Simon
   Murakami, Shinsuke
   Hook, Mikael
   Yasuoka, Rieko
   Nishio, Masahiro
TI Energy modeling approach to the global energy-mineral nexus: A first
   look at metal requirements and the 2 °C target
SO APPLIED ENERGY
LA English
DT Article; Proceedings Paper
CT 8th International Conference on Applied Energy (ICAE)
CY OCT 08-11, 2016
CL Beijing Inst Technol, Beijing, PEOPLES R CHINA
SP Appl Energy Innovat Inst, Malardalen UNiv, China Assoc Sci & Technologies, HOME Program, Sichuan Univ, Jiangsu Univ, China Univ Min & Technol, Tianjin Univ, Tongji Univ, SW Jiaotong Univ, Xian Jiaotong Univ, Collaborat Innovat Ctr Elect Vehicles Beijing, Technol Unnovat Local Scale Optimum Integrat Battery Energy Storage, BAIC, BJEV, YuTong, Shenwu Grp
HO Beijing Inst Technol
DE Energy-mineral nexus; Energy modeling; 2 degrees C target; Zero
   emissions scenario; Metal requirement
ID RESOURCE CONSTRAINTS; RENEWABLE ENERGY; BY-PRODUCT; SOLAR;
   SUSTAINABILITY; AVAILABILITY; TECHNOLOGIES; CRITICALITY; LIMITATIONS;
   PROJECTION
AB Stringent GHG emission cuts are required for meeting the so-called Paris Agreement. Due to higher metal intensities of renewable energy, such a transition must also include required amounts of metal. This study estimates the metal requirement for various power generation technology mix scenarios by using a cost-minimizing energy model on the global energy-mineral nexus. Two energy and climate scenarios were developed to represent primarily economic efficiency and environmental performance, respectively, under climate policies with net zero emissions satisfying the 2 degrees C target, and without any constraints (i.e. Business As Usual). Based on the future additions of various power generation technologies, metal requirements and cumulative production were estimated in zero-order and conservative scenarios, to compare with production levels in 2015 and reserves. The results suggest that there may be cause for concern about metal requirement and/or availability in PV, nuclear, and (Plug-in Hybrid) Electric Vehicles in 2100. For PV in the Gas & Ren scenario, most of the metal usage exceeded their production levels and the reserves. It is concluded that mineral availability and production rates should be given greater attention for planning and modeling of sustainable energy systems. (C) 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
C1 [Tokimatsu, Koji] Tokyo Inst Technol, Midori Ku, 4259 Nagatsuta, Yokohama, Kanagawa 2268503, Japan.
   [Tokimatsu, Koji; Nishio, Masahiro] Natl Inst Adv Ind Sci & Technol, 1-2-1 Namiki, Tsukuba, Ibaraki 3058564, Japan.
   [Wachtmeister, Henrik; Davidsson, Simon; Hook, Mikael] Uppsala Univ, Dept Earth Sci, Global Energy Syst, Villavagen 16, SE-75121 Uppsala, Sweden.
   [McLellan, Benjamin] Kyoto Univ, Grad Sch Energy Sci, Sakyo Ku, Yoshida Honmachi, Kyoto 6068501, Japan.
   [Murakami, Shinsuke] Univ Tokyo, Sch Engn, Bunkyo Ku, 7-3-1 Hongo, Tokyo 1138656, Japan.
   [Yasuoka, Rieko] Syst Res Ctr Co Ltd, Minato Ku, KY Bldg,3-16-7 Toranomon, Tokyo 1050001, Japan.
C3 Institute of Science Tokyo; Tokyo Institute of Technology; National
   Institute of Advanced Industrial Science & Technology (AIST); Uppsala
   University; Kyoto University; University of Tokyo
RP Tokimatsu, K (corresponding author), Tokyo Inst Technol, Midori Ku, 4259 Nagatsuta, Yokohama, Kanagawa 2268503, Japan.
EM tokimatsu.k.ac@mtitech.ac.jp
RI Davidsson Kurland, Simon/A-3635-2016; TOKIMATSU, Koji/KYP-1841-2024;
   McLellan, Benjamin/HLH-5239-2023; Höök, Mikael/I-3479-2019;
   /L-1912-2018; Murakami, Shinsuke/K-4622-2012
OI Davidsson Kurland, Simon/0000-0003-0794-5536; McLellan,
   Benjamin/0000-0002-4802-3864; Höök, Mikael/0000-0002-6379-7104;
   Murakami, Shinsuke/0000-0002-0022-4333
FU National Institute of Advanced Industrial Science and Technology (AIST);
   Arai Science and Technology Foundation; TEPCO Memorial Foundation
FX The first author gives his deepest thank to National Institute of
   Advanced Industrial Science and Technology (AIST) and other research
   funds including Arai Science and Technology Foundation and TEPCO
   Memorial Foundation for supporting to this study.
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NR 76
TC 77
Z9 90
U1 4
U2 41
PU ELSEVIER SCI LTD
PI OXFORD
PA THE BOULEVARD, LANGFORD LANE, KIDLINGTON, OXFORD OX5 1GB, OXON, ENGLAND
SN 0306-2619
EI 1872-9118
J9 APPL ENERG
JI Appl. Energy
PD DEC 1
PY 2017
VL 207
BP 494
EP 509
DI 10.1016/j.apenergy.2017.05.151
PG 16
WC Energy & Fuels; Engineering, Chemical
WE Science Citation Index Expanded (SCI-EXPANDED); Social Science Citation Index (SSCI); Conference Proceedings Citation Index - Science (CPCI-S)
SC Energy & Fuels; Engineering
GA FO9RP
UT WOS:000417229300043
DA 2026-06-14
ER

PT J
AU Pettifor, H
   Wilson, C
   McCollum, D
   Edelenbosch, OY
AF Pettifor, H.
   Wilson, C.
   McCollum, D.
   Edelenbosch, O. Y.
TI Modelling social influence and cultural variation in global low-carbon
   vehicle transitions
SO GLOBAL ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE-HUMAN AND POLICY DIMENSIONS
LA English
DT Article
DE Social influence; Behavioural realism; Vehicle choice; AFV
ID ALTERNATIVE FUEL VEHICLES; CHOICE; PREFERENCES; DIFFUSION; TRANSPORT;
   DEMAND; IMPACT
AB We present a unique and transparent approach for incorporating social influence effects into global integrated assessment models used to analyse climate change mitigation. We draw conceptually on Rogers (2003) diffusion of innovations, introducing heterogeneous and interconnected consumers who vary in their aversion to new technologies. Focussing on vehicle choice, we conduct novel empirical research to parameterise consumer risk aversion and how this is shaped by social and cultural influences. We find robust evidence for social influence effects, and variation between countries as a function of cultural differences. We then formulate an approach to modelling social influence which is implementable in both simulation and optimisation-type models. We use two global integrated assessment models (IMAGE and MESSAGE) to analyse four scenarios that introduce social influence and cultural differences between regions. These scenarios allow us to explore the interactions between consumer preferences and social influence. We find that incorporating social influence effects into global models accelerates the early deployment of electric vehicles and stimulates more widespread deployment across adopter groups. Incorporating cultural variation leads to significant differences in deployment between culturally divergent regions such as the USA and China. Our analysis significantly extends the ability of global integrated assessment models to provide policy-relevant analysis grounded in real world processes.
C1 [Pettifor, H.; Wilson, C.] Univ East Anglia, Tyndall Ctr Climate Change Res, Norwich NR4 7TJ, Norfolk, England.
   [McCollum, D.] IIASA, Energy Program, Laxenburg, Austria.
   [Edelenbosch, O. Y.] PBL Netherlands Environm Assessment Agcy, Bilthoven, Netherlands.
C3 University of East Anglia; International Institute for Applied Systems
   Analysis (IIASA)
RP Pettifor, H (corresponding author), Univ East Anglia, Tyndall Ctr Climate Change Res, Norwich NR4 7TJ, Norfolk, England.
EM H.h.pettifor@uea.ac.uk; charlie.wilson@uea.ac.uk;
   D.mccollum@liasa.ac.at; Oreane.edelenbosch@pbl.n
RI ; Pettifor, Hazel/AAF-6393-2020; Wilson, Charlie/D-4127-2011
OI Edelenbosch, Oreane/0000-0002-6588-5255; Pettifor,
   Hazel/0000-0003-3901-2693; McCollum, David/0000-0003-1293-0179; Wilson,
   Charlie/0000-0001-8164-3566
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NR 59
TC 54
Z9 58
U1 0
U2 33
PU ELSEVIER SCI LTD
PI OXFORD
PA THE BOULEVARD, LANGFORD LANE, KIDLINGTON, OXFORD OX5 1GB, OXON, ENGLAND
SN 0959-3780
EI 1872-9495
J9 GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG
JI Glob. Environ. Change-Human Policy Dimens.
PD NOV
PY 2017
VL 47
BP 76
EP 87
DI 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2017.09.008
PG 12
WC Environmental Sciences; Environmental Studies; Geography
WE Science Citation Index Expanded (SCI-EXPANDED); Social Science Citation Index (SSCI)
SC Environmental Sciences & Ecology; Geography
GA FQ5IL
UT WOS:000418392300008
OA Green Submitted
DA 2026-06-14
ER

PT J
AU Thornton, PE
   Calvin, K
   Jones, AD
   Di Vittorio, AV
   Bond-Lamberty, B
   Chini, L
   Shi, XY
   Mao, JF
   Collins, WD
   Edmonds, J
   Thomson, A
   Truesdale, J
   Craig, A
   Branstetter, ML
   Hurtt, G
AF Thornton, Peter E.
   Calvin, Katherine
   Jones, Andrew D.
   Di Vittorio, Alan V.
   Bond-Lamberty, Ben
   Chini, Louise
   Shi, Xiaoying
   Mao, Jiafu
   Collins, William D.
   Edmonds, Jae
   Thomson, Allison
   Truesdale, John
   Craig, Anthony
   Branstetter, Marcia L.
   Hurtt, George
TI Biospheric feedback effects in a synchronously coupled model of human
   and Earth systems
SO NATURE CLIMATE CHANGE
LA English
DT Article
ID CLIMATE-CHANGE; LAND-USE; CO2; UNCERTAINTIES; SCENARIOS; RESPONSES
AB Fossil fuel combustion and land-use change are the two largest contributors to industrial-era increases in atmospheric `CO2 concentration(1). Projections of these are thus fundamental inputs for coupled Earth system models (ESMs) used to estimate the physical and biological consequences of future climate system forcing(2,3). While historical data sets are available to inform past and current climate analyses(4,5), assessments of future climate change have relied on projections of energy and land use from energy-economic models, constrained by assumptions about future policy, land-use patterns and socio-economic development trajectories(6). Here we show that the climatic impacts on land ecosystems drive significant feedbacks in energy, agriculture, land use and carbon cycle projections for the twenty-first century. We find that exposure of human-appropriated land ecosystem productivity to biospheric change results in reductions of land area used for crops; increases in managed forest area and carbon stocks; decreases in global crop prices; and reduction in fossil fuel emissions for a low-mid-range forcing scenario(7). The feedbacks between climate-induced biospheric change and human system forcings to the climate system-demonstrated here-are handled inconsistently, or excluded altogether, in the one-way asynchronous coupling of energy-economic models to ESMs used to date(1,8,9).
C1 [Thornton, Peter E.; Shi, Xiaoying; Mao, Jiafu] Oak Ridge Natl Lab, Div Environm Sci, Climate Change Sci Inst, POB 2008, Oak Ridge, TN 37831 USA.
   [Calvin, Katherine; Bond-Lamberty, Ben; Edmonds, Jae] Pacific Northwest Natl Lab, Joint Global Change Res Inst, College Pk, MD 20740 USA.
   [Jones, Andrew D.; Di Vittorio, Alan V.; Collins, William D.; Truesdale, John; Craig, Anthony] Lawrence Berkeley Natl Lab, Berkeley, CA 94720 USA.
   [Chini, Louise; Hurtt, George] Univ Maryland, College Pk, MD 20742 USA.
   [Thomson, Allison] Field Market, 777 N Capitol St NE, Washington, DC 20002 USA.
   [Branstetter, Marcia L.] Oak Ridge Natl Lab, Comp Sci & Math Div, Climate Change Sci Inst, Oak Ridge, TN 37831 USA.
C3 United States Department of Energy (DOE); Oak Ridge National Laboratory;
   United States Department of Energy (DOE); Pacific Northwest National
   Laboratory; United States Department of Energy (DOE); Lawrence Berkeley
   National Laboratory; University System of Maryland; University of
   Maryland College Park; United States Department of Energy (DOE); Oak
   Ridge National Laboratory
RP Thornton, PE (corresponding author), Oak Ridge Natl Lab, Div Environm Sci, Climate Change Sci Inst, POB 2008, Oak Ridge, TN 37831 USA.
EM thorntonpe@ornl.gov; jet@ucar.edu; anthony.p.craig@gmail.com
RI Jones, Andrew/M-4363-2013; Mao, Jiafu/B-9689-2012; Hurtt,
   George/A-8450-2012; Thornton, Peter/B-9145-2012; Shi,
   Xiaoying/C-4447-2012; Chini, Louise/LEL-7744-2024; Di Vittorio,
   Alan/M-5325-2013; Collins, William/J-3147-2014; Calvin,
   Katherine/ADF-2443-2022; Bond-Lamberty, Benjamin/C-6058-2008; Thoon,
   Allison/GRO-3207-2022
OI Jones, Andrew/0000-0002-1913-7870; Mao, Jiafu/0000-0002-2050-7373;
   Hurtt, George/0000-0001-7278-202X; Thornton, Peter/0000-0002-4759-5158;
   Shi, Xiaoying/0000-0001-8994-5032; Collins, William/0000-0002-4463-9848;
   Bond-Lamberty, Benjamin/0000-0001-9525-4633; Thoon,
   Allison/0000-0001-5326-1755
FU US Department of Energy, Office of Science, Office of Biological and
   Environmental Research; Accelerated Climate Modeling for Energy (ACME)
   project; US Department of Energy Office of Science User Facility
   [DE-AC05-00OR22725]; Office of Science of the US Department of Energy
   [DE-AC02-05CH11231]; National Science Foundation; Office of Science of
   the US Department of Energy; US Department of Energy
   [DE-AC02-05CH11231]; Laboratory Directed Research and Development
   Program of Oak Ridge National Laboratory, US Department of Energy
FX This work was supported by the US Department of Energy, Office of
   Science, Office of Biological and Environmental Research, including
   support from the Accelerated Climate Modeling for Energy (ACME) project.
   This research used resources of the Oak Ridge Leadership Computing
   Facility, which is a US Department of Energy Office of Science User
   Facility supported under Contract DE-AC05-00OR22725. This research used
   resources of the National Energy Research Scientific Computing Center, a
   DOE Office of Science User Facility supported by the Office of Science
   of the US Department of Energy under Contract No. DE-AC02-05CH11231.
   This work used the Community Earth System Model, CESM and the Global
   Change Assessment Model, GCAM. The National Science Foundation and the
   Office of Science of the US Department of Energy support the CESM
   project. The authors acknowledge long-term support for GCAM development
   from the Integrated Assessment Research Program in the Office of Science
   of the US Department of Energy. Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory is
   supported by the US Department of Energy under Contract No.
   DE-AC02-05CH11231. Initial research by P.E.T., J.M. and X.S. was
   sponsored by the Laboratory Directed Research and Development Program of
   Oak Ridge National Laboratory, managed by UT-Battelle, LLC, for the US
   Department of Energy. We thank J. Gulledge for comments on the
   manuscript.
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NR 32
TC 52
Z9 71
U1 1
U2 91
PU NATURE PORTFOLIO
PI BERLIN
PA HEIDELBERGER PLATZ 3, BERLIN, 14197, GERMANY
SN 1758-678X
EI 1758-6798
J9 NAT CLIM CHANGE
JI Nat. Clim. Chang.
PD JUL
PY 2017
VL 7
IS 7
BP 496
EP +
DI 10.1038/NCLIMATE3310
PG 6
WC Environmental Sciences; Environmental Studies; Meteorology & Atmospheric
   Sciences
WE Science Citation Index Expanded (SCI-EXPANDED); Social Science Citation Index (SSCI)
SC Environmental Sciences & Ecology; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
GA EZ2NG
UT WOS:000404545400016
OA Green Submitted
DA 2026-06-14
ER

PT J
AU Galbraith, ED
   Carozza, DA
   Bianchi, D
AF Galbraith, E. D.
   Carozza, D. A.
   Bianchi, D.
TI A coupled human-Earth model perspective on long-term trends in the
   global marine fishery
SO NATURE COMMUNICATIONS
LA English
DT Article
ID CLIMATE-CHANGE; RECRUITMENT; PROJECTIONS; MANAGEMENT; DEPENDENCE;
   CATCHES; SHIFTS; OCEAN; STOCK; SIZE
AB The global wild marine fish harvest increased fourfold between 1950 and a peak value near the end of the 20th century, reflecting interactions between anthropogenic and ecological forces. Here, we examine these interactions in a bio-energetically constrained, spatially and temporally resolved model of global fisheries. We conduct historical hindcasts with the model, which suggest that technological progress can explain most of the 20th century increase of fish harvest. In contrast, projections extending this rate of technological progress into the future under open access suggest a long-term decrease in harvest due to overfishing. Climate change is predicted to gradually decrease the global fish production capacity, though our model suggests that this is of secondary importance to social and economic factors. Our study represents a novel way to integrate human-ecological interactions within a single model framework for long-term simulations.
C1 [Galbraith, E. D.] ICREA, Pg Lluis Companys 23, Barcelona 08010, Spain.
   [Galbraith, E. D.] Univ Autonoma Barcelona, ICTA, Dept Math, E-08193 Barcelona, Spain.
   [Galbraith, E. D.; Carozza, D. A.] McGill Univ, Dept Earth & Planetary Sci, Montreal, PQ H3A 0E8, Canada.
   [Carozza, D. A.] Univ Quebec, Dept Math, Montreal, PQ H3C 3P8, Canada.
   [Bianchi, D.] Univ Calif Los Angeles, Dept Atmospher & Ocean Sci, Los Angeles, CA 90095 USA.
C3 ICREA; Autonomous University of Barcelona; McGill University; University
   of Quebec; University of Quebec Montreal; University of California
   System; University of California Los Angeles
RP Galbraith, ED (corresponding author), ICREA, Pg Lluis Companys 23, Barcelona 08010, Spain.; Galbraith, ED (corresponding author), Univ Autonoma Barcelona, ICTA, Dept Math, E-08193 Barcelona, Spain.; Galbraith, ED (corresponding author), McGill Univ, Dept Earth & Planetary Sci, Montreal, PQ H3A 0E8, Canada.
EM eric.galbraith@uab.cat
RI Galbraith, Eric/F-9469-2014
OI Galbraith, Eric/0000-0003-4476-4232; Bianchi,
   Daniele/0000-0002-6621-0858; Carozza, David A/0000-0001-7343-9442
FU Marine Environmental Prediction and Response (MEOPAR) Network Centre of
   Excellence; Canadian Foundation for Advanced Research (CIFAR); Spanish
   Ministry of Economy and Competitiveness, through the Maria de Maeztu
   Programme for Centres/Units of Excellence in RD [MDM-2015-0552];
   European Research Council (ERC) under the European Union's Horizon 2020
   research and innovation programme [682602]; University of California Los
   Angeles; ICREA Funding Source: Custom
FX We thank the Canadian Foundation for Innovation (CFI) for providing
   computing infrastructure, and the Marine Environmental Prediction and
   Response (MEOPAR) Network Centre of Excellence and Canadian Foundation
   for Advanced Research (CIFAR) for funding support. EDG acknowledges
   financial support from the Spanish Ministry of Economy and
   Competitiveness, through the Maria de Maeztu Programme for Centres/Units
   of Excellence in R&D (MDM-2015-0552). This project has received funding
   from the European Research Council (ERC) under the European Union's
   Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme (grant agreement No
   682602, BIGSEA). D.B. acknowledges financial support from a Faculty
   Research Grant from University of California Los Angeles.
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NR 53
TC 70
Z9 75
U1 1
U2 38
PU NATURE PORTFOLIO
PI BERLIN
PA HEIDELBERGER PLATZ 3, BERLIN, 14197, GERMANY
EI 2041-1723
J9 NAT COMMUN
JI Nat. Commun.
PD MAR 27
PY 2017
VL 8
AR 14884
DI 10.1038/ncomms14884
PG 7
WC Multidisciplinary Sciences
WE Science Citation Index Expanded (SCI-EXPANDED); Social Science Citation Index (SSCI)
SC Science & Technology - Other Topics
GA EP5EQ
UT WOS:000397402200001
PM 28345669
OA Green Submitted, gold
DA 2026-06-14
ER



PT J
AU Carozza, DA
   Bianchi, D
   Galbraith, ED
AF Carozza, David A.
   Bianchi, Daniele
   Galbraith, Eric D.
TI Formulation, General Features and Global Calibration of a
   Bioenergetically-Constrained Fishery Model
SO PLOS ONE
LA English
DT Article
ID CLIMATE-CHANGE IMPACTS; MARINE ECOSYSTEMS; FLEET DYNAMICS; BODY-MASS;
   SIZE; TEMPERATURE; ECONOMICS; SCALE; OCEAN; STOCK
AB Human exploitation of marine resources is profoundly altering marine ecosystems, while climate change is expected to further impact commercially-harvested fish and other species. Although the global fishery is a highly complex system with many unpredictable aspects, the bioenergetic limits on fish production and the response of fishing effort to profit are both relatively tractable, and are sure to play important roles. Here we describe a generalized, coupled biological-economic model of the global marine fishery that represents both of these aspects in a unified framework, the BiOeconomic mArine Trophic Size-spectrum (BOATS) model. BOATS predicts fish production according to size spectra as a function of net primary production and temperature, and dynamically determines harvest spectra from the biomass density and interactive, prognostic fishing effort. Within this framework, the equilibrium fish biomass is determined by the economic forcings of catchability, ex-vessel price and cost per unit effort, while the peak harvest depends on the ecosystem parameters. Comparison of a large ensemble of idealized simulations with observational databases, focusing on historical biomass and peak harvests, allows us to narrow the range of several uncertain ecosystem parameters, rule out most parameter combinations, and select an optimal ensemble of model variants. Compared to the prior distributions, model variants with lower values of the mortality rate, trophic efficiency, and allometric constant agree better with observations. For most acceptable parameter combinations, natural mortality rates are more strongly affected by temperature than growth rates, suggesting different sensitivities of these processes to climate change. These results highlight the utility of adopting large-scale, aggregated data constraints to reduce model parameter uncertainties and to better predict the response of fisheries to human behaviour and climate change.
C1 [Carozza, David A.; Bianchi, Daniele; Galbraith, Eric D.] McGill Univ, Dept Earth & Planetary Sci, Montreal, PQ, Canada.
   [Carozza, David A.] Univ Quebec, Dept Math, Montreal, PQ, Canada.
   [Bianchi, Daniele] Univ Calif Los Angeles, Dept Atmospher & Ocean Sci, Los Angeles, CA USA.
   [Galbraith, Eric D.] ICREA, Barcelona 08010, Spain.
   [Galbraith, Eric D.] Univ Autonoma Barcelona, ICTA, E-08193 Barcelona, Spain.
   [Galbraith, Eric D.] Univ Autonoma Barcelona, Dept Math, E-08193 Barcelona, Spain.
C3 McGill University; University of Quebec; University of Quebec Montreal;
   University of California System; University of California Los Angeles;
   ICREA; Autonomous University of Barcelona; Autonomous University of
   Barcelona
RP Carozza, DA (corresponding author), McGill Univ, Dept Earth & Planetary Sci, Montreal, PQ, Canada.; Carozza, DA (corresponding author), Univ Quebec, Dept Math, Montreal, PQ, Canada.
EM david.carozza@gmail.com
RI ; Galbraith, Eric/F-9469-2014
OI Bianchi, Daniele/0000-0002-6621-0858; Carozza, David
   A/0000-0001-7343-9442; Galbraith, Eric/0000-0003-4476-4232
FU Social Sciences and Humanities Research Council of Canada through a
   Joseph-Armand Bombardier Canada Graduate Scholarship (SSHRC); Marine
   Environmental Observation Prediction and Response Network (MEOPAR);
   Birks Family Foundation; Department of Earth and Planetary Sciences for
   a LeRoy Memorial Fellowship in Earth and Planetary Sciences; Canada
   Foundation for Innovation (CFI); European Research Council (ERC) under
   the European Union's Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme
   [682602]; ICREA Funding Source: Custom
FX This research was supported by the Social Sciences and Humanities
   Research Council of Canada through a Joseph-Armand Bombardier Canada
   Graduate Scholarship (SSHRC,
   www.sshrc-crsh.gc.ca/home-accueil-eng.aspx), by the Marine Environmental
   Observation Prediction and Response Network (MEOPAR, http://meopar.ca)
   for a doctoral fellowship and operational support, the Birks Family
   Foundation for a doctoral bursary (http://birksfamilyfoundation.ca), the
   friends of Captain O.E. LeRoy and the Department of Earth and Planetary
   Sciences for a LeRoy Memorial Fellowship in Earth and Planetary Sciences
   (www.mcgill.ca/eps/home). This research was also supported by the Canada
   Foundation for Innovation (CFI, www.innovation.ca) and Compute Canada
   (www.computecanada.ca) for computing infrastructure. This project has
   received funding from the European Research Council (ERC) under the
   European Union's Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme (grant
   agreement No 682602). The funders had no role in study design, data
   collection and analysis, decision to publish, or preparation of the
   manuscript.
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NR 79
TC 31
Z9 32
U1 0
U2 17
PU PUBLIC LIBRARY SCIENCE
PI SAN FRANCISCO
PA 1160 BATTERY STREET, STE 100, SAN FRANCISCO, CA 94111 USA
SN 1932-6203
J9 PLOS ONE
JI PLoS One
PD JAN 19
PY 2017
VL 12
IS 1
AR e0169763
DI 10.1371/journal.pone.0169763
PG 28
WC Multidisciplinary Sciences
WE Science Citation Index Expanded (SCI-EXPANDED); Social Science Citation Index (SSCI)
SC Science & Technology - Other Topics
GA EI3HP
UT WOS:000392381100023
PM 28103280
OA Green Submitted, gold
DA 2026-06-14
ER



PT J
AU Popp, A
   Calvin, K
   Fujimori, S
   Havlik, P
   Humpenöder, F
   Stehfest, E
   Bodirsky, BL
   Dietrich, JP
   Doelmann, JC
   Gusti, M
   Hasegawa, T
   Kyle, P
   Obersteiner, M
   Tabeau, A
   Takahashi, K
   Valin, H
   Waldhoff, S
   Weindl, I
   Wise, M
   Kriegler, E
   Lotze-Campen, H
   Fricko, O
   Riahi, K
   van Vuuren, DP
AF Popp, Alexander
   Calvin, Katherine
   Fujimori, Shinichiro
   Havlik, Petr
   Humpenoeder, Florian
   Stehfest, Elke
   Bodirsky, Benjamin Leon
   Dietrich, Jan Philipp
   Doelmann, Jonathan C.
   Gusti, Mykola
   Hasegawa, Tomoko
   Kyle, Page
   Obersteiner, Michael
   Tabeau, Andrzej
   Takahashi, Kiyoshi
   Valin, Hugo
   Waldhoff, Stephanie
   Weindl, Isabelle
   Wise, Marshall
   Kriegler, Elmar
   Lotze-Campen, Hermann
   Fricko, Oliver
   Riahi, Keywan
   van Vuuren, Detlef P.
TI Land-use futures in the shared socio-economic pathways
SO GLOBAL ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE-HUMAN AND POLICY DIMENSIONS
LA English
DT Article
DE Scenarios; Land use; Emissions; Mitigation; Food prices; Integrated
   assessment; SSP
ID GREENHOUSE-GAS MITIGATION; CLIMATE-CHANGE; FOOD DEMAND; AGRICULTURE;
   MODEL; INTENSIFICATION; SCENARIOS; BENEFITS
AB In the future, the land system will be facing new intersecting challenges. While food demand, especially for resource-intensive livestock based commodities, is expected to increase, the terrestrial system has large potentials for climate change mitigation through improved agricultural management, providing biomass for bioenergy, and conserving or even enhancing carbon stocks of ecosystems. However, uncertainties in future socio-economic land use drivers may result in very different land-use dynamics and consequences for land-based ecosystem services. This is the first study with a systematic interpretation of the Shared Socio-Economic Pathways (SSPs) in terms of possible land-use changes and their consequences for the agricultural system, food provision and prices as well as greenhouse gas emissions. Therefore, five alternative Integrated Assessment Models with distinctive land-use modules have been used for the translation of the SSP narratives into quantitative projections. The model results reflect the general storylines of the SSPs and indicate a broad range of potential land-use futures with global agricultural land of 4900 mio ha in 2005 decreasing by 743 mio ha until 2100 at the lower (SSP1) and increasing by 1080 mio ha (SSP3) at the upper end. Greenhouse gas emissions from land use and land use change, as a direct outcome of these diverse land-use dynamics, and agricultural production systems differ strongly across SSPs (e.g. cumulative land use change emissions between 2005 and 2100 range from -54 to 402 Gt CO2). The inclusion of land-based mitigation efforts, particularly those in the most ambitious mitigation scenarios, further broadens the range of potential land futures and can strongly affect greenhouse gas dynamics and food prices. In general, it can be concluded that low demand for agricultural commodities, rapid growth in agricultural productivity and globalized trade, all most pronounced in a SSP1 world, have the potential to enhance the extent of natural ecosystems, lead to lowest greenhouse gas emissions from the land system and decrease food prices over time. The SSP-based land use pathways presented in this paper aim at supporting future climate research and provide the basis for further regional integrated assessments, biodiversity research and climate impact analysis. (C) 2016 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an open access article under the CC BY license (http://creativecothmons.org/licenses/by/4.0/).
C1 [Popp, Alexander; Humpenoeder, Florian; Bodirsky, Benjamin Leon; Dietrich, Jan Philipp; Weindl, Isabelle; Kriegler, Elmar; Lotze-Campen, Hermann] Potsdam Inst Climate Impact Res PIK, POB 60 12 03, D-14412 Potsdam, Germany.
   [Calvin, Katherine; Kyle, Page; Waldhoff, Stephanie; Wise, Marshall] Univ Maryland, Pacif Northwest Natl Lab, Joint Global Change Res Inst, 5825 Univ Res Court,Suite 3500, College Pk, MD 20740 USA.
   [Fujimori, Shinichiro] Natl Inst Environm Studies NIES, Tsukuba, Ibaraki, Japan.
   [Havlik, Petr; Gusti, Mykola; Obersteiner, Michael; Valin, Hugo; Fricko, Oliver; Riahi, Keywan] Int Inst Appl Syst Anal IIASA, Vienna, Austria.
   [Stehfest, Elke; Doelmann, Jonathan C.] PBL Netherlands Environm Assessment Agcy, Postbus 30314, NL-2500 GH The Hague, Netherlands.
   [Riahi, Keywan; van Vuuren, Detlef P.] Graz Univ Technol, Graz, Austria.
   [Tabeau, Andrzej] Wageningen Univ & Res, Wageningen Econ Res Part, Wageningen, Netherlands.
   [Bodirsky, Benjamin Leon] Commonwealth Sci & Ind Res Org, St Lucia, Qld, Australia.
   [Gusti, Mykola] Lviv Polytech Natl Univ, 12 Bandera St, UA-79013 Lvov, Ukraine.
   [Weindl, Isabelle] Leibniz Inst Agr Engn & Bioecon ATB, Max Eyth Allee 100, D-14469 Potsdam, Germany.
   [Lotze-Campen, Hermann] Humboldt Univ, D-10099 Berlin, Germany.
   [van Vuuren, Detlef P.] Univ Utrecht, Copernicus Inst Sustainable Dev, Heidelberglaan 2, NL-3584 CS Utrecht, Netherlands.
C3 Potsdam Institut fur Klimafolgenforschung; University System of
   Maryland; University of Maryland College Park; National Institute for
   Environmental Studies - Japan; Graz University of Technology; Wageningen
   University & Research; Commonwealth Scientific & Industrial Research
   Organisation (CSIRO); Ministry of Education & Science of Ukraine; Lviv
   Polytechnic National University; Leibniz Association; Leibniz Institut
   fur Agrartechnik und Biookonomie (ATB); Humboldt University of Berlin;
   Utrecht University
RP Popp, A (corresponding author), Potsdam Inst Climate Impact Res PIK, POB 60 12 03, D-14412 Potsdam, Germany.
EM popp@pik-potsdam.de
RI Hasegawa, Tomoko/AAB-2616-2019; Oliver, Fricko/ABE-5732-2020; Valin,
   Hugo/Z-1557-2019; Tabeau, Andrzej/AAE-8214-2019; Fujimori,
   Shinichiro/A-1288-2015; Bodirsky, Benjamin Leon/ABH-9170-2020; Dietrich,
   Jan Philipp/ABG-3548-2021; Obersteiner, Michael/ADG-8592-2022; Stehfest,
   Elke/AAZ-4121-2020; Gusti, Mykola/D-4818-2018; Havlík, Petr/H-1521-2014;
   Calvin, Katherine/ADF-2443-2022; Kyle, Page/AFP-3602-2022; Kriegler,
   Elmar/I-3048-2016; van Vuuren, Detlef/A-4764-2009; Lotze-Campen,
   Hermann/AAA-5093-2020; Humpenöder, Florian/HHN-1081-2022; TAKAHASHI,
   KIYOSHI/AFN-9175-2022; Popp, Alexander/N-7064-2014; Riahi,
   Keywan/B-6426-2011
OI Oliver, Fricko/0000-0002-6835-9883; Valin, Hugo/0000-0002-0618-773X;
   Fujimori, Shinichiro/0000-0001-7897-1796; Bodirsky, Benjamin
   Leon/0000-0002-8242-6712; Obersteiner, Michael/0000-0001-6981-2769;
   Gusti, Mykola/0000-0002-2576-9217; Kyle, Page/0000-0002-1257-8358;
   Kriegler, Elmar/0000-0002-3307-2647; van Vuuren,
   Detlef/0000-0003-0398-2831; Havlik, Petr/0000-0001-5551-5085;
   Lotze-Campen, Hermann/0000-0002-0003-5508; Humpenöder,
   Florian/0000-0003-2927-9407; TAKAHASHI, KIYOSHI/0000-0002-0163-545X;
   Popp, Alexander/0000-0001-9500-1986; Weindl,
   Isabelle/0000-0002-7651-6930; Riahi, Keywan/0000-0001-7193-3498
FU European Union [603542, 266018]; Ministry of the Environment, Japan
   [2-1402]; Integrated Assessment Research Program in the Office of
   Science of the U.S. Department of Energy; Grants-in-Aid for Scientific
   Research [15K16164] Funding Source: KAKEN
FX PBL and PIK gratefully acknowledge funding from the European Union's
   Seventh Framework Program under grant agreement no. 603542 (LUC4C).
   IIASAs analysis contributing to this study was partly conducted in
   partnership with the CGIAR Research Program on Climate Change,
   Agriculture and Food Security (CCAFS) and supported by the European
   Union-funded project An integration of mitigation and adaptation options
   for sustainable livestock production under climate change (ANIMALCHANGE)
   (Grant 266018). NIES is grateful for the research support of the "Global
   Environmental Research Fund" (2-1402) provided by the Ministry of the
   Environment, Japan. PNNL gratefully acknowledges research support
   provided by the Integrated Assessment Research Program in the Office of
   Science of the U.S. Department of Energy.
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NR 67
TC 532
Z9 565
U1 13
U2 385
PU ELSEVIER SCI LTD
PI OXFORD
PA THE BOULEVARD, LANGFORD LANE, KIDLINGTON, OXFORD OX5 1GB, OXON, ENGLAND
SN 0959-3780
EI 1872-9495
J9 GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG
JI Glob. Environ. Change-Human Policy Dimens.
PD JAN
PY 2017
VL 42
BP 331
EP 345
DI 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2016.10.002
PG 15
WC Environmental Sciences; Environmental Studies; Geography
WE Science Citation Index Expanded (SCI-EXPANDED); Social Science Citation Index (SSCI)
SC Environmental Sciences & Ecology; Geography
GA EL5AS
UT WOS:000394634500028
OA Green Submitted, hybrid
HC Y
HP N
DA 2026-06-14
ER

PT J
AU van Vuuren, DP
   Stehfest, E
   Gernaat, DEHJ
   Doelman, JC
   Van den Berg, M
   Harmsen, M
   de Boer, HS
   Bouwman, LF
   Daioglou, V
   Edelenbosch, OY
   Girod, B
   Kram, T
   Lassaletta, L
   Lucas, PL
   van Meijl, H
   Müller, C
   van Ruijven, BJ
   van der Sluis, S
   Tabeau, A
AF van Vuuren, Detlef P.
   Stehfest, Elke
   Gernaat, David E. H. J.
   Doelman, Jonathan C.
   Van den Berg, Maarten
   Harmsen, Mathijs
   de Boer, Harmen Sytze
   Bouwman, Lex F.
   Daioglou, Vassilis
   Edelenbosch, Oreane Y.
   Girod, Bastien
   Kram, Tom
   Lassaletta, Luis
   Lucas, Paul L.
   van Meijl, Hans
   Mueller, Christoph
   van Ruijven, Bas J.
   van der Sluis, Sietske
   Tabeau, Andrzej
TI Energy, land-use and greenhouse gas emissions trajectories under a green
   growth paradigm
SO GLOBAL ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE-HUMAN AND POLICY DIMENSIONS
LA English
DT Article
DE Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSPs); Sustainable development;
   Integrated assessment; Climate change research; Scenarios
ID CLIMATE-CHANGE RESEARCH; SCENARIO FRAMEWORK; AGRICULTURE; WORLD
AB This paper describes the possible developments in global energy use and production, land use, emissions and climate changes following the SSP1 storyline, a development consistent with the green growth (or sustainable development) paradigm (a more inclusive development respecting environmental boundaries). The results are based on the implementation using the IMAGE 3.0 integrated assessment model and are compared with a) other IMAGE implementations of the SSPs (SSP2 and SSP3) and b) the SSP1 implementation of other integrated assessment models. The results show that a combination of resource efficiency, preferences for sustainable production methods and investment in human development could lead to a strong transition towards a more renewable energy supply, less land use and lower anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions in 2100 than in 2010, even in the absence of explicit climate policies. At the same time, climate policy would still be needed to reduce emissions further, in order to reduce the projected increase of global mean temperature from 3 degrees C (SSP1 reference scenario) to 2 or 1.5 degrees C (in line with current policy targets). The SSP1 storyline could be a basis for further discussions on how climate policy can be combined with achieving other societal goals. (C) 2017 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an open access article under the CC BY-NC-ND license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/).
C1 [van Vuuren, Detlef P.; Stehfest, Elke; Gernaat, David E. H. J.; Doelman, Jonathan C.; Van den Berg, Maarten; Harmsen, Mathijs; de Boer, Harmen Sytze; Bouwman, Lex F.; Daioglou, Vassilis; Edelenbosch, Oreane Y.; Kram, Tom; Lassaletta, Luis; Lucas, Paul L.; van der Sluis, Sietske] PBL Netherlands Environm Assessment Agcy, POB 303, NL-3720 AH Bilthoven, Netherlands.
   [van Vuuren, Detlef P.; Gernaat, David E. H. J.; Harmsen, Mathijs; Daioglou, Vassilis; Edelenbosch, Oreane Y.] Univ Utrecht, Copernicus Inst Sustainable Dev, Utrecht, Netherlands.
   [Bouwman, Lex F.] Univ Utrecht, Dept Geosci, Utrecht, Netherlands.
   [Girod, Bastien] Swiss Fed Inst Technol, Dept Management Technol & Econ, Chair Sustainabil & Technol, Swiss Fed Inst Technol Zurich, Zurich, Switzerland.
   [van Meijl, Hans; Tabeau, Andrzej] LEI Wageningen Univ & Res Ctr, Wageningen, Netherlands.
   [Mueller, Christoph] Potsdam Inst Climate Impact Res PIK, Potsdam, Germany.
   [van Ruijven, Bas J.] Natl Ctr Atmospher Res, POB 3000, Boulder, CO 80307 USA.
C3 Utrecht University; Utrecht University; Swiss Federal Institutes of
   Technology Domain; ETH Zurich; Wageningen University & Research; Potsdam
   Institut fur Klimafolgenforschung; National Center Atmospheric Research
   (NCAR) - USA
RP van Vuuren, DP (corresponding author), PBL Netherlands Environm Assessment Agcy, POB 303, NL-3720 AH Bilthoven, Netherlands.
EM Detlef.vanvuuren@pbl.nl
RI /C-3663-2009; van Ruijven, Bas/G-8106-2011; van Vuuren,
   Detlef/A-4764-2009; Daioglou, Vassilis/L-7262-2013; Tabeau,
   Andrzej/AAE-8214-2019; Müller, Christoph/E-4812-2016; Stehfest,
   Elke/AAZ-4121-2020; van Meijl, Hans/G-6223-2015; Bouwman,
   Lex/B-7053-2012; Lassaletta, Luis/D-3894-2009
OI Lucas, Paul/0000-0003-0292-7830; van Ruijven, Bas/0000-0003-1232-5892;
   van Vuuren, Detlef/0000-0003-0398-2831; Doelman,
   Jonathan/0000-0002-6842-573X; Daioglou, Vassilis/0000-0002-6028-352X;
   Müller, Christoph/0000-0002-9491-3550; Edelenbosch,
   Oreane/0000-0002-6588-5255; van Meijl, Hans/0000-0002-2455-6869;
   Bouwman, Lex/0000-0002-2045-1859; Lassaletta, Luis/0000-0001-9428-2149
FU European Union [308329, 603942, 603542]
FX The authors would like to thank first of the researchers of other
   research groups involved in the SSPs - as the development of the IMAGE
   scenarios greatly benefited from the constructive comments received
   throughout the process. The development of the IMAGE SSPs also benefited
   from the funding from the European Union's Seventh
   ProgrammeFP7/2007-2013 under grant agreement no 308329 (ADVANCE), no
   603942 (PATHWAYS) and no 603542 (LUC4C).
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NR 54
TC 652
Z9 728
U1 7
U2 270
PU ELSEVIER SCI LTD
PI OXFORD
PA THE BOULEVARD, LANGFORD LANE, KIDLINGTON, OXFORD OX5 1GB, OXON, ENGLAND
SN 0959-3780
EI 1872-9495
J9 GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG
JI Glob. Environ. Change-Human Policy Dimens.
PD JAN
PY 2017
VL 42
BP 237
EP 250
DI 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2016.05.008
PG 14
WC Environmental Sciences; Environmental Studies; Geography
WE Science Citation Index Expanded (SCI-EXPANDED); Social Science Citation Index (SSCI)
SC Environmental Sciences & Ecology; Geography
GA EL5AS
UT WOS:000394634500022
OA Green Submitted, hybrid
HC Y
HP N
DA 2026-06-14
ER

PT J
AU Costello, C
   Ovando, D
   Clavelle, T
   Strauss, CK
   Hilborn, R
   Melnychuk, MC
   Branch, TA
   Gaines, SD
   Szuwalski, CS
   Cabral, RB
   Rader, DN
   Leland, A
AF Costello, Christopher
   Ovando, Daniel
   Clavelle, Tyler
   Strauss, C. Kent
   Hilborn, Ray
   Melnychuk, Michael C.
   Branch, Trevor A.
   Gaines, Steven D.
   Szuwalski, Cody S.
   Cabral, Reniel B.
   Rader, Douglas N.
   Leland, Amanda
TI Global fishery prospects under contrasting management regimes
SO PROCEEDINGS OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES OF THE UNITED STATES OF
   AMERICA
LA English
DT Article
DE fishery recovery; fishery reform; rights-based fishery management;
   bioeconomic model
ID RIGHTS; CONSERVATION; ECONOMICS
AB Data from 4,713 fisheries worldwide, representing 78% of global reported fish catch, are analyzed to estimate the status, trends, and benefits of alternative approaches to recovering depleted fisheries. For each fishery, we estimate current biological status and forecast the impacts of contrasting management regimes on catch, profit, and biomass of fish in the sea. We estimate unique recovery targets and trajectories for each fishery, calculate the year-by-year effects of alternative recovery approaches, and model how alternative institutional reforms affect recovery outcomes. Current status is highly heterogeneous-the median fishery is in poor health (overfished, with further overfishing occurring), although 32% of fisheries are in good biological, although not necessarily economic, condition. Our business-as-usual scenario projects further divergence and continued collapse for many of the world's fisheries. Applying sound management reforms to global fisheries in our dataset could generate annual increases exceeding 16 million metric tons (MMT) in catch, $53 billion in profit, and 619 MMT in biomass relative to business as usual. We also find that, with appropriate reforms, recovery can happen quickly, with the median fishery taking under 10 y to reach recovery targets. Our results show that commonsense reforms to fishery management would dramatically improve overall fish abundance while increasing food security and profits.
C1 [Costello, Christopher; Ovando, Daniel; Clavelle, Tyler; Gaines, Steven D.; Szuwalski, Cody S.; Cabral, Reniel B.] Univ Calif Santa Barbara, Bren Sch Environm Sci & Management, Santa Barbara, CA 93106 USA.
   [Strauss, C. Kent; Rader, Douglas N.; Leland, Amanda] Environm Def Fund, New York, NY 10010 USA.
   [Hilborn, Ray; Melnychuk, Michael C.; Branch, Trevor A.] Univ Washington, Sch Aquat & Fishery Sci, Seattle, WA 98195 USA.
C3 University of California System; University of California Santa Barbara;
   Environmental Defense Fund; University of Washington; University of
   Washington Seattle
RP Costello, C (corresponding author), Univ Calif Santa Barbara, Bren Sch Environm Sci & Management, Santa Barbara, CA 93106 USA.
EM costello@bren.ucsb.edu
RI Hilborn, Ray/D-6332-2013; Ovando, Dan/AGG-8630-2022; Branch,
   Trevor/A-5691-2009; Gaines, Steven/Y-3234-2019; Melnychuk, Michael
   Colin/A-4680-2013
OI Ovando, Dan/0000-0003-2120-7345; Gaines, Steven/0000-0002-7604-3483;
   Melnychuk, Michael Colin/0000-0002-6088-7657; Cabral,
   Reniel/0000-0002-1137-381X
FU David and Lucile Packard Foundation; Waitt Foundation; Helmsley
   Charitable Trust
FX We are grateful to National Center for Ecological Analysis and Synthesis
   for computation support. We acknowledge financial support from the David
   and Lucile Packard Foundation, Waitt Foundation, and Helmsley Charitable
   Trust.
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NR 32
TC 509
Z9 563
U1 3
U2 242
PU NATL ACAD SCIENCES
PI WASHINGTON
PA 2101 CONSTITUTION AVE NW, WASHINGTON, DC 20418 USA
SN 0027-8424
J9 P NATL ACAD SCI USA
JI Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U. S. A.
PD MAY 3
PY 2016
VL 113
IS 18
BP 5125
EP 5129
DI 10.1073/pnas.1520420113
PG 5
WC Multidisciplinary Sciences
WE Science Citation Index Expanded (SCI-EXPANDED)
SC Science & Technology - Other Topics
GA DL1MH
UT WOS:000375395700059
PM 27035953
OA Green Submitted
HC Y
HP N
DA 2026-06-14
ER

PT J
AU Müller, C
   Stehfest, E
   van Minnen, JG
   Strengers, B
   von Bloh, W
   Beusen, AHW
   Schaphoff, S
   Kram, T
   Lucht, W
AF Mueller, Christoph
   Stehfest, Elke
   van Minnen, Jelle G.
   Strengers, Bart
   von Bloh, Werner
   Beusen, Arthur H. W.
   Schaphoff, Sibyll
   Kram, Tom
   Lucht, Wolfgang
TI Drivers and patterns of land biosphere carbon balance reversal
SO ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS
LA English
DT Article
DE terrstrial carbon balance; vegetation dynamics; climate sensitivity;
   land-use change; land biosphere; modelling; integrated assessment
ID CLIMATE-CHANGE; TERRESTRIAL VEGETATION; PLANT GEOGRAPHY; CYCLE FEEDBACK;
   MODEL; DROUGHT; AGRICULTURE; UNCERTAINTY; SENSITIVITY; MORTALITY
AB The carbon balance of the land biosphere is the result of complex interactions between land, atmosphere and oceans, including climatic change, carbon dioxide fertilization and land-use change. While the land biosphere currently absorbs carbon dioxide from the atmosphere, this carbon balance might be reversed under climate and land-use change ('carbon balance reversal'). A carbon balance reversal would render climate mitigation much more difficult, as net negative emissions would be needed to even stabilize atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations. We investigate the robustness of the land biosphere carbon sink under different socio-economic pathways by systematically varying climate sensitivity, spatial patterns of climate change and resulting land-use changes. For this, we employ a modelling framework designed to account for all relevant feedback mechanisms by coupling the integrated assessment model IMAGE with the process-based dynamic vegetation, hydrology and crop growth model LPJmL. We find that carbon balance reversal can occur under a broad range of forcings and is connected to changes in tree cover and soil carbon mainly in northern latitudes. These changes are largely a consequence of vegetation responses to varying climate and only partially of land-use change and the rate of climate change. Spatial patterns of climate change as deduced from different climate models, substantially determine how much pressure in terms of global warming and land-use change the land biosphere will tolerate before the carbon balance is reversed. A reversal of the land biosphere carbon balance can occur as early as 2030, although at very low probability, and should be considered in the design of so-called peak-and-decline strategies.
C1 [Mueller, Christoph; von Bloh, Werner; Schaphoff, Sibyll; Lucht, Wolfgang] Potsdam Inst Climate Impact Res, Telegraphenberg A31, D-14473 Potsdam, Germany.
   [Stehfest, Elke; van Minnen, Jelle G.; Strengers, Bart; Beusen, Arthur H. W.; Kram, Tom] PBL Netherlands Environm Assessment Agcy, NL-3720 AH Bilthoven, Netherlands.
   [Lucht, Wolfgang] Humboldt Univ, Dept Geog, D-10099 Berlin, Germany.
C3 Potsdam Institut fur Klimafolgenforschung; Humboldt University of Berlin
RP Müller, C (corresponding author), Potsdam Inst Climate Impact Res, Telegraphenberg A31, D-14473 Potsdam, Germany.
EM Christoph.Mueller@pik-potsdam.de
RI Lucht, Wolfgang/G-2180-2011; Müller, Christoph/E-4812-2016; Stehfest,
   Elke/AAZ-4121-2020
OI Lucht, Wolfgang/0000-0002-3398-8575; Beusen, Arthur/0000-0003-0104-8615;
   Müller, Christoph/0000-0002-9491-3550; 
FU MAC-MIT project [01LN1317A]; KULUNDA project through the German Federal
   Ministry of Education and Research (BMBF) [01LL0905L]; Open Access fund
   of the Leibniz Association
FX CM acknowledges financial support from the MAC-MIT project (01LN1317A)
   and the KULUNDA project (01LL0905L) funded through the German Federal
   Ministry of Education and Research (BMBF). The publication of this
   article was funded by the Open Access fund of the Leibniz Association.
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NR 65
TC 48
Z9 51
U1 1
U2 87
PU IOP Publishing Ltd
PI Bristol
PA No.2 The Distillery, Glassfields, Avon Street, Bristol, ENGLAND
SN 1748-9326
J9 ENVIRON RES LETT
JI Environ. Res. Lett.
PD APR
PY 2016
VL 11
IS 4
AR 044002
DI 10.1088/1748-9326/11/4/044002
PG 11
WC Environmental Sciences; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
WE Science Citation Index Expanded (SCI-EXPANDED)
SC Environmental Sciences & Ecology; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
GA DL6JZ
UT WOS:000375746800005
OA Green Submitted, gold
DA 2026-06-14
ER

PT J
AU van Sluisveld, MAE
   Martínez, SH
   Daioglou, V
   van Vuuren, DP
AF van Sluisveld, Mariesse A. E.
   Martinez, Sara Herreras
   Daioglou, Vassilis
   van Vuuren, Detlef P.
TI Exploring the implications of lifestyle change in 2°C mitigation
   scenarios using the IMAGE integrated assessment model
SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE
LA English
DT Article
DE Lifestyle change; Behavioral change; Integrated assessment modeling; 2
   degrees C; Mitigation
ID ENERGY-CONSUMPTION; BEHAVIOR; DEMAND
AB Most model studies focus on technical solutions in order to meet the 2 degrees C climate target, such as renewable, carbon capture and energy efficiency technologies. Such studies show that it becomes increasingly more difficult to attain the 2 degrees C target with carbon price driven technical solutions alone. This indicates the need to focus more on non-economic and non-technological drivers of energy system transformations, which are generally not explicitly included in long-term scenario studies. This study implements a set of lifestyle change measures for residential energy use, mobility and waste management in the integrated assessment model IMAGE. We analyze the implications of these lifestyle changes in a business-as-usual and 2 degrees C climate mitigation reference case. We find that lifestyle change measures included in this study mostly affect the end-use sectors. By 2050, the measures reduce CO2 emissions in the residential sector by about 13% and in the transport sector by about 35% compared to baseline emissions. The indirect implications in the industry and energy supply sectors were found to be negligible. In mitigation scenarios the contribution of lifestyle measures is dampened in end-use sectors as they overlap with more technical measures. Yet, as they may create opportunities to mitigate in sectors without more radical changes in (1) the energy infrastructure and (2) on the short term, it leads to a more cost-efficient mitigation strategy. Further research in how behavior can be internalized into integrated assessment studies is recommendable. (C) 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
C1 [van Sluisveld, Mariesse A. E.; Martinez, Sara Herreras; Daioglou, Vassilis; van Vuuren, Detlef P.] Univ Utrecht, Copernicus Inst Sustainable Dev, NL-3584 CS Utrecht, Netherlands.
   [van Sluisveld, Mariesse A. E.; van Vuuren, Detlef P.] PBL Netherlands Environm Assessment Agcy, NL-3720 BA Bilthoven, Netherlands.
C3 Utrecht University
RP van Sluisveld, MAE (corresponding author), PBL Netherlands Environm Assessment Agcy, POB 303, NL-3720 BA Bilthoven, Netherlands.
EM mariesse.vansluisveld@pbl.nl
RI van Sluisveld, Mariësse/AAF-7452-2021; Daioglou, Vassilis/L-7262-2013;
   van Vuuren, Detlef/A-4764-2009
OI van Sluisveld, Mariësse/0000-0002-3600-2425; Daioglou,
   Vassilis/0000-0002-6028-352X; van Vuuren, Detlef/0000-0003-0398-2831;
   Herreras Martinez, Sara/0000-0002-7878-6168
FU European Union [282846, 603942]
FX The research leading to these results has received funding from the
   European Union Seventh Framework Programme FP7/2007-2013 under grant
   agreement no. 282846 (LIMITS) and no. 603942 (PATHWAYS). The authors
   would like to thank Bastien Girod at ETH Zurich for providing comments
   and suggestions that helped in the improvement of this article.
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NR 58
TC 84
Z9 92
U1 1
U2 41
PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC
PI NEW YORK
PA STE 800, 230 PARK AVE, NEW YORK, NY 10169 USA
SN 0040-1625
EI 1873-5509
J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC
JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang.
PD JAN
PY 2016
VL 102
BP 309
EP 319
DI 10.1016/j.techfore.2015.08.013
PG 11
WC Business; Regional & Urban Planning
WE Social Science Citation Index (SSCI)
SC Business & Economics; Public Administration
GA DA5RX
UT WOS:000367861300031
OA Green Submitted, Bronze
DA 2026-06-14
ER

PT J
AU Misra, AK
   Verma, M
   Venturino, E
AF Misra, A. K.
   Verma, Maitri
   Venturino, Ezio
TI Modeling the control of atmospheric carbon dioxide through
   reforestation: effect of time delay
SO MODELING EARTH SYSTEMS AND ENVIRONMENT
LA English
DT Article
DE Mathematical model; CO2 gas; Forest biomass; Reforestation efforts; Time
   delay; Hopf-bifurcation
ID FORESTRY RESOURCES; POPULATION; DEFORESTATION; MITIGATION; DEPLETION;
   BIOMASS; IMPACT
AB Carbon dioxide (CO2) is the prime greenhouse gas responsible for the threat of global warming. Forest biomass plays an important role in sequestration of carbon dioxide from the atmosphere but the global forest biomass is declining with an alarming rate due to human activities. In this scenario, reforestation is crucial to reduce the atmospheric burden of CO2. In this paper, we propose a nonlinear mathematical model to study the effect of reforestation as well as the delay involved in between the measurement of forest data and implementation of reforestation efforts on the control of atmospheric concentration of CO2. Model analysis shows that the atmospheric concentration of CO2 decreases due to reforestation but a longer delay in between measurement of forest biomass and implementation of reforestation efforts has destabilizing effect on the dynamics of the system. The critical value of this time delay is found analytically. The Hopf-bifurcation analysis is performed by taking time delay as bifurcation parameter. The stability and direction of bifurcating periodic solutions arising through Hopf-bifurcations are also discussed.
C1 [Misra, A. K.; Verma, Maitri] Banaras Hindu Univ, Fac Sci, Dept Math, Varanasi 221005, Uttar Pradesh, India.
   [Venturino, Ezio] Univ Torino, Dipartimento Matemat Giuseppe Peano, I-10123 Turin, Italy.
C3 Banaras Hindu University (BHU); University of Turin
RP Misra, AK (corresponding author), Banaras Hindu Univ, Fac Sci, Dept Math, Varanasi 221005, Uttar Pradesh, India.
EM akmisra_knp@yahoo.com; maitri.verma9@gmail.com; ezio.venturino@unito.it
RI Verma, Maitri/AGJ-4348-2022; Venturino, Ezio/C-5221-2011
OI Verma, Maitri/0000-0003-4992-2156; 
FU University Grants Commission, New Delhi, India
   [MRP-MAJOR-MATH-2013-26774]; National Board of Higher Mathematics,
   Department of Atomic Energy, Government of India
   [2/40(7)/2015/RD-II/4951]
FX Authors are thankful to the handling editor and reviewer for their
   useful suggestions those improved the quality of the paper. The first
   author thankfully acknowledges the University Grants Commission, New
   Delhi, India for providing financial support under major research
   project (MRP-MAJOR-MATH-2013-26774). The second author is thankful to
   National Board of Higher Mathematics, Department of Atomic Energy,
   Government of India for providing financial support in form of
   postdoctoral fellowship (No: 2/40(7)/2015/R&D-II/4951).
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NR 30
TC 53
Z9 56
U1 0
U2 7
PU SPRINGER HEIDELBERG
PI HEIDELBERG
PA TIERGARTENSTRASSE 17, D-69121 HEIDELBERG, GERMANY
SN 2363-6203
EI 2363-6211
J9 MODEL EARTH SYST ENV
JI Model. Earth Syst. Environ.
PD OCT
PY 2015
VL 1
IS 3
AR 24
DI 10.1007/s40808-015-0028-z
PG 17
WC Environmental Sciences
WE Emerging Sources Citation Index (ESCI)
SC Environmental Sciences & Ecology
GA VF5KG
UT WOS:000443078300016
OA Bronze
DA 2026-06-14
ER

PT J
AU van Vuuren, DP
   Kok, M
   Lucas, PL
   Prins, AG
   Alkemade, R
   van den Berg, M
   Bouwrnan, L
   van der Esch, S
   Jeuken, M
   Kram, T
   Stehfest, E
AF van Vuuren, Detlef P.
   Kok, Marcel
   Lucas, Paul L.
   Prins, Anne Gerdien
   Alkemade, Rob
   van den Berg, Maurits
   Bouwrnan, Lex
   van der Esch, Stefan
   Jeuken, Michel
   Kram, Tom
   Stehfest, Elke
TI Pathways to achieve a set of ambitious global sustainability objectives
   by 2050: Explorations using the IMAGE integrated assessment model
SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE
LA English
DT Article; Proceedings Paper
CT IIASA 40th Anniversary Conference
CY OCT 24-26, 2012
CL Laxenburg, AUSTRIA
DE Integrated assessment; Modelling; Sustainable development; Global change
ID FOOD SECURITY; CHALLENGES; STRATEGIES; FRAMEWORK; SCENARIOS; FUTURE
AB In 2012, governments worldwide renewed their commitments to a more sustainable development that would eradicate poverty, halt climate change and conserve ecosystems, and initiated a process to create a long-term vision by formulating Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). Although progress in achieving a more sustainable development has been made in some areas, overall, actions have not been able to bend the trend in critical areas (including those related to the so-called food-water-energy nexus). Here, we analyze how different combinations of technological measures and behavioral changes could contribute to achieving a set of sustainability objectives, taking into account the interlinkages between them. The objectives include eradicating hunger, providing universal access to modern energy, preventing dangerous climate change, conserving biodiversity and controlling air pollution. The analysis identifies different pathways that achieve these objectives simultaneously, but they all require substantial transformations in the energy and food systems, that go far beyond historic progress and currently formulated policies. The analysis also shows synergies and trade-offs between achieving the different objectives, concluding that achieving them requires a comprehensive approach. The scenario analysis does not point at a fundamental trade-off between the objectives related to poverty eradication and those related to environmental sustainability. The different pathways of achieving the set of long-term objectives and their implications for short-term action can contribute to building a comprehensive strategy to meet the SDGs by proposing near-term actions. (C) 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
C1 [van Vuuren, Detlef P.; Kok, Marcel; Lucas, Paul L.; Prins, Anne Gerdien; Alkemade, Rob; van den Berg, Maurits; Bouwrnan, Lex; van der Esch, Stefan; Kram, Tom; Stehfest, Elke] PBL Netherlands Environm Assessment Agcy, NL-3720 AH Bilthoven, Netherlands.
   [van Vuuren, Detlef P.; Bouwrnan, Lex] Univ Utrecht, Utrecht, Netherlands.
   [Alkemade, Rob] Wageningen Univ & Res Ctr WUR, Wageningen, Netherlands.
   [van den Berg, Maurits] EC Joint Res Ctr JRC IES, Ispra, Italy.
   [Jeuken, Michel] Deltares, Delft, Netherlands.
C3 Utrecht University; Wageningen University & Research; European
   Commission Joint Research Centre; EC JRC ISPRA Site; Deltares
RP van Vuuren, DP (corresponding author), PBL Netherlands Environm Assessment Agcy, POB 303, NL-3720 AH Bilthoven, Netherlands.
RI Alkemade, Rob/U-3663-2017; Bouwman, Lex/B-7053-2012; van Vuuren,
   Detlef/A-4764-2009; Stehfest, Elke/AAZ-4121-2020
OI Alkemade, Rob/0000-0001-8761-1768; Bouwman, Lex/0000-0002-2045-1859;
   Lucas, Paul/0000-0003-0292-7830; van Vuuren, Detlef/0000-0003-0398-2831;
   van den Berg, Maurits/0000-0001-9584-4182; 
FU European Union [603942]
FX This article benefited from funding from the European Union Seventh
   Framework Programme (FP7/2007-2013) under grant agreement no 603942
   (PATHWAYS).
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NR 55
TC 166
Z9 188
U1 2
U2 174
PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC
PI NEW YORK
PA STE 800, 230 PARK AVE, NEW YORK, NY 10169 USA
SN 0040-1625
EI 1873-5509
J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC
JI Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang.
PD SEP
PY 2015
VL 98
BP 303
EP 323
DI 10.1016/j.techfore.2015.03.005
PG 21
WC Business; Regional & Urban Planning
WE Social Science Citation Index (SSCI); Conference Proceedings Citation Index - Social Science &amp; Humanities (CPCI-SSH)
SC Business & Economics; Public Administration
GA CS5QV
UT WOS:000362134000024
OA Green Submitted
DA 2026-06-14
ER

PT J
AU Beusen, AHW
   Van Beek, LPH
   Bouwman, AF
   Mogollón, JM
   Middelburg, JJ
AF Beusen, A. H. W.
   Van Beek, L. P. H.
   Bouwman, A. F.
   Mogollon, J. M.
   Middelburg, J. J.
TI Coupling global models for hydrology and nutrient loading to simulate
   nitrogen and phosphorus retention in surface water description of
   IMAGE-GNM and analysis of performance
SO GEOSCIENTIFIC MODEL DEVELOPMENT
LA English
DT Article
ID RIVER BASIN-SCALE; LAND-USE CHANGE; SPATIALLY EXPLICIT; FUTURE
   PROJECTIONS; COASTAL NITROGEN; SOIL CARBON; DENITRIFICATION; NITRATE;
   RUNOFF; N2O
AB The Integrated Model to Assess the Global Environment-Global Nutrient Model (IMAGE-GNM) is a global distributed, spatially explicit model using hydrology as the basis for describing nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P) delivery to surface water, transport and in-stream retention in rivers, lakes, wetlands and reservoirs. It is part of the integrated assessment model IMAGE, which studies the interaction between society and the environment over prolonged time periods. In the IMAGE-GNM model, grid cells receive water with dissolved and suspended N and P from upstream grid cells; inside grid cells, N and P are delivered to water bodies via diffuse sources (surface runoff, shallow and deep groundwater, riparian zones; litterfall in floodplains; atmospheric deposition) and point sources (wastewater); N and P retention in a water body is calculated on the basis of the residence time of the water and nutrient uptake velocity; subsequently, water and nutrients are transported to downstream grid cells. Differences between model results and observed concentrations for a range of global rivers are acceptable given the global scale of the uncalibrated model. Sensitivity analysis with data for the year 2000 showed that runoff is a major factor for N and P delivery, retention and river export. For both N and P, uptake velocity and all factors used to compute the subgrid in-stream retention are important for total in-stream retention and river export. Soil N budgets, wastewater and all factors determining litterfall in floodplains are important for N delivery to surface water. For P the factors that determine the P content of the soil (soil P content and bulk density) are important factors for delivery and river export.
C1 [Beusen, A. H. W.; Bouwman, A. F.; Mogollon, J. M.; Middelburg, J. J.] Univ Utrecht, Fac Geosci, Dept Earth Sci Geochem, NL-3508 TA Utrecht, Netherlands.
   [Beusen, A. H. W.; Bouwman, A. F.] PBL Netherlands Environm Assessment Agcy, NL-3720 AH Bilthoven, Netherlands.
   [Van Beek, L. P. H.] Univ Utrecht, Fac Geosci, Dept Phys Geog, NL-3508 TC Utrecht, Netherlands.
C3 Utrecht University; Utrecht University
RP Beusen, AHW (corresponding author), Univ Utrecht, Fac Geosci, Dept Earth Sci Geochem, POB 80021, NL-3508 TA Utrecht, Netherlands.
EM arthur.beusen@pbl.nl
RI Middelburg, Jack/B-4951-2011; Van Beek, Rens/B-4904-2014; Bouwman,
   Lex/B-7053-2012
OI Middelburg, Jack/0000-0003-3601-9072; Bouwman, Lex/0000-0002-2045-1859;
   Beusen, Arthur/0000-0003-0104-8615; Mogollón, José
   Manuel/0000-0002-7110-5470
FU Water, Climate and Ecosystems project; Sustainability strategic theme of
   Utrecht University; Global Environment Facility (GEF); United Nations
   Environment Programme (UNEP); Intergovernmental Oceanographic Commission
   of the UNESCO (IOC/UNESCO); UNEP/GEF project Global Foundations; EU
   (MSCA award) [H2020, 661163]; Marie Curie Actions (MSCA) [661163]
   Funding Source: Marie Curie Actions (MSCA)
FX This paper was supported by the Water, Climate and Ecosystems project,
   part of the Sustainability strategic theme of Utrecht University
   (http://wce.uu.nl/), and contributes to the Netherlands Earth System
   Science Centre (NESSC, http://www.nessc.nl/). We gratefully acknowledge
   financial support from the Global Environment Facility (GEF), United
   Nations Environment Programme (UNEP), Intergovernmental Oceanographic
   Commission of the UNESCO (IOC/UNESCO) and other partners through the
   UNEP/GEF project Global Foundations for Reducing Nutrient Enrichment and
   Oxygen Depletion from Land-based Pollution in Support of Global Nutrient
   Cycle (GNC project). Additional funding was provided by the EU H2020
   (MSCA award 661163 to J.M. Mogollon).
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NR 107
TC 88
Z9 115
U1 4
U2 73
PU COPERNICUS GESELLSCHAFT MBH
PI GOTTINGEN
PA BAHNHOFSALLEE 1E, GOTTINGEN, 37081, GERMANY
SN 1991-959X
EI 1991-9603
J9 GEOSCI MODEL DEV
JI Geosci. Model Dev.
PY 2015
VL 8
IS 12
BP 4045
EP 4067
DI 10.5194/gmd-8-4045-2015
PG 23
WC Geosciences, Multidisciplinary
WE Science Citation Index Expanded (SCI-EXPANDED)
SC Geology
GA CZ6XG
UT WOS:000367243700014
OA Green Submitted, gold
DA 2026-06-14
ER

PT J
AU Collins, WD
   Craig, AP
   Truesdale, JE
   Di Vittorio, AV
   Jones, AD
   Bond-Lamberty, B
   Calvin, KV
   Edmonds, JA
   Kim, SH
   Thomson, AM
   Patel, P
   Zhou, Y
   Mao, J
   Shi, X
   Thornton, PE
   Chini, LP
   Hurtt, GC
AF Collins, W. D.
   Craig, A. P.
   Truesdale, J. E.
   Di Vittorio, A. V.
   Jones, A. D.
   Bond-Lamberty, B.
   Calvin, K. V.
   Edmonds, J. A.
   Kim, S. H.
   Thomson, A. M.
   Patel, P.
   Zhou, Y.
   Mao, J.
   Shi, X.
   Thornton, P. E.
   Chini, L. P.
   Hurtt, G. C.
TI The integrated Earth system model version 1: formulation and
   functionality
SO GEOSCIENTIFIC MODEL DEVELOPMENT
LA English
DT Article
ID LAND-COVER CHANGE; ANTHROPOGENIC CLIMATE-CHANGE; WOOD-HARVEST; USE
   TRANSITIONS; CHANGE IMPACTS; WIND-SPEED; ENERGY USE; CARBON;
   21ST-CENTURY; REANALYSIS
AB The integrated Earth system model (iESM) has been developed as a new tool for projecting the joint human/climate system. The iESM is based upon coupling an integrated assessment model (IAM) and an Earth system model (ESM) into a common modeling infrastructure. IAMs are the primary tool for describing the human-Earth system, including the sources of global greenhouse gases (GHGs) and short-lived species (SLS), land use and land cover change (LULCC), and other resource-related drivers of anthropogenic climate change. ESMs are the primary scientific tools for examining the physical, chemical, and biogeochemical impacts of human-induced changes to the climate system. The iESM project integrates the economic and human-dimension modeling of an IAM and a fully coupled ESM within a single simulation system while maintaining the separability of each model if needed. Both IAM and ESM codes are developed and used by large communities and have been extensively applied in recent national and international climate assessments. By introducing heretofore-omitted feed-backs between natural and societal drivers, we can improve scientific understanding of the human-Earth system dynamics. Potential applications include studies of the interactions and feedbacks leading to the timing, scale, and geographic distribution of emissions trajectories and other human influences, corresponding climate effects, and the subsequent impacts of a changing climate on human and natural systems. This paper describes the formulation, requirements, implementation, testing, and resulting functionality of the first version of the iESM released to the global climate community.
C1 [Collins, W. D.] Univ Calif Berkeley, Berkeley, CA 94720 USA.
   [Collins, W. D.; Craig, A. P.; Truesdale, J. E.] Univ Calif Berkeley, Lawrence Berkeley Natl Lab, Berkeley, CA 94720 USA.
   [Bond-Lamberty, B.; Calvin, K. V.; Edmonds, J. A.; Kim, S. H.; Thomson, A. M.; Patel, P.; Zhou, Y.] Joint Global Change Res Inst, College Pk, MD USA.
   [Mao, J.; Shi, X.; Thornton, P. E.] Oak Ridge Natl Lab, Oak Ridge, TN USA.
   [Chini, L. P.; Hurtt, G. C.] Univ Maryland, College Pk, MD 20742 USA.
C3 University of California System; University of California Berkeley;
   United States Department of Energy (DOE); Lawrence Berkeley National
   Laboratory; University of California System; University of California
   Berkeley; United States Department of Energy (DOE); Oak Ridge National
   Laboratory; University System of Maryland; University of Maryland
   College Park
RP Collins, WD (corresponding author), Univ Calif Berkeley, Berkeley, CA 94720 USA.
EM wdcollins@lbl.gov
RI Calvin, Katherine/ADF-2443-2022; Mao, Jiafu/B-9689-2012; Bond-Lamberty,
   Benjamin/C-6058-2008; Thornton, Peter/B-9145-2012; Shi,
   Xiaoying/C-4447-2012; Collins, William/J-3147-2014; Jones,
   Andrew/M-4363-2013; Chini, Louise/LEL-7744-2024; Thoon,
   Allison/GRO-3207-2022; Di Vittorio, Alan/M-5325-2013; Hurtt,
   George/A-8450-2012; /L-8862-2013; Zhou, Yuyu/ABF-1638-2020
OI Calvin, Katherine/0000-0003-2191-4189; Mao, Jiafu/0000-0002-2050-7373;
   Bond-Lamberty, Benjamin/0000-0001-9525-4633; Thornton,
   Peter/0000-0002-4759-5158; Shi, Xiaoying/0000-0001-8994-5032; Collins,
   William/0000-0002-4463-9848; Jones, Andrew/0000-0002-1913-7870; Chini,
   Louise/0000-0002-9070-3505; Kim, Son H/0000-0001-5195-489X; Thoon,
   Allison/0000-0001-5326-1755; Di Vittorio, Alan/0000-0002-8139-4640;
   Hurtt, George/0000-0001-7278-202X; 
FU US Department of Energy [DE-AC02-05CH11231, DE-AC05-76RL01830]; National
   Science Foundation; Integrated Assessment Research Program in the Office
   of Science of the US Department of Energy (DOE SC-IARP); Office of
   Biological and Environmental Research of the US Department of Energy;
   UT-BATTELLE for the DOE [DE-AC05-00OR22725]
FX This research was supported in part by the Director, Office of Science,
   Office of Biological and Environmental Research of the US Department of
   Energy under contract no. DE-AC02-05CH11231 to the Lawrence Berkeley
   National Laboratory as part of their Earth system modeling program. The
   authors used resources of the National Energy Research Scientific
   Computing Center (NERSC), also supported by the Office of Science of the
   US Department of Energy, under contract no. DE-AC02-05CH11231. The CESM
   project is supported by the National Science Foundation and the Office
   of Science (BER) of the US Department of Energy. Computing resources
   were provided by the Climate Simulation Laboratory at NCAR's
   Computational and Information Systems Laboratory (CISL), sponsored by
   the National Science Foundation and other agencies. NCAR is sponsored by
   the National Science Foundation. The authors are also grateful for
   research support provided by the Integrated Assessment Research Program
   in the Office of Science of the US Department of Energy (DOE SC-IARP).
   This research used Evergreen computing resources at the Pacific
   Northwest National Laboratory's Joint Global Change Research Institute
   at the University of Maryland in College Park, which is supported by DOE
   SC-IARP. Pacific Northwest National Laboratory is operated by Battelle
   for the US Department of Energy under contract DE-AC05-76RL01830. The
   research was supported in part by support from the Office of Biological
   and Environmental Research of the US Department of Energy extended to
   the Oak Ridge National Laboratory. Oak Ridge National Laboratory is
   managed by UT-BATTELLE for the DOE under Contract DE-AC05-00OR22725.
   This research also used resources of the Oak Ridge Leadership Computing
   Facility at the Oak Ridge National Laboratory, which is supported by the
   Office of Science of the US Department of Energy under contract no.
   DE-AC05-00OR22725. The views and opinions expressed in this paper are
   those of the authors alone.
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NR 66
TC 66
Z9 75
U1 2
U2 60
PU COPERNICUS GESELLSCHAFT MBH
PI GOTTINGEN
PA BAHNHOFSALLEE 1E, GOTTINGEN, 37081, GERMANY
SN 1991-959X
EI 1991-9603
J9 GEOSCI MODEL DEV
JI Geosci. Model Dev.
PY 2015
VL 8
IS 7
BP 2203
EP 2219
DI 10.5194/gmd-8-2203-2015
PG 17
WC Geosciences, Multidisciplinary
WE Science Citation Index Expanded (SCI-EXPANDED)
SC Geology
GA CO1LQ
UT WOS:000358917100017
OA Green Submitted, gold
DA 2026-06-14
ER

PT J
AU Pokhrel, YN
   Koirala, S
   Yeh, PJF
   Hanasaki, N
   Longuevergne, L
   Kanae, S
   Oki, T
AF Pokhrel, Yadu N.
   Koirala, Sujan
   Yeh, Pat J. -F.
   Hanasaki, Naota
   Longuevergne, Laurent
   Kanae, Shinjiro
   Oki, Taikan
TI Incorporation of groundwater pumping in a global Land Surface Model with
   the representation of human impacts
SO WATER RESOURCES RESEARCH
LA English
DT Review
DE Land Surface Model; human impacts; irrigation; groundwater pumping; U;
   S; Aquifers; GRACE
ID WATER-TABLE DYNAMICS; HIGH-PLAINS AQUIFER; FRESH-WATER; ANTHROPOGENIC
   IMPACTS; CLIMATE-CHANGE; UNITED-STATES; PART I; IRRIGATION; STORAGE;
   RESOURCES
AB Observations indicate that groundwater levels are declining in many regions around the world. Simulating such depletion of groundwater at the global scale still remains a challenge because most global Land Surface Models (LSMs) lack the physical representation of groundwater dynamics in general and well pumping in particular. Here we present an integrated hydrologic model, which explicitly simulates groundwater dynamics and pumping within a global LSM that also accounts for human activities such as irrigation and reservoir operation. The model is used to simulate global water fluxes and storages with a particular focus on groundwater withdrawal and depletion in the High Plains Aquifer (HPA) and Central Valley Aquifer (CVA). Simulated global groundwater withdrawal and depletion for the year 2000 are 570 and 330 km(3) yr(-1), respectively; the depletion agrees better with observations than our previous model result without groundwater representation, but may still contain certain uncertainties and is on the higher side of other estimates. Groundwater withdrawals from the HPA and CVA are approximate to 22 and approximate to 9 km(3) yr(-1), respectively, which are also consistent with the observations of approximate to 24 and approximate to 13 km(3) yr(-1). The model simulates a significant decline in total terrestrial water storage in both regions as caused mainly by groundwater storage depletion. Groundwater table declined by approximate to 14 cm yr(-1) in the HPA during 2003-2010; the rate is even higher (approximate to 71 cm yr(-1)) in the CVA. These results demonstrate the potential of the developed model to study the dynamic relationship between human water use, groundwater storage, and the entire hydrologic cycle.
C1 [Pokhrel, Yadu N.] Michigan State Univ, Dept Civil & Environm Engn, E Lansing, MI 48824 USA.
   [Koirala, Sujan] Max Planck Inst Biogeochem, Dept Biogeochem Integrat, D-07745 Jena, Germany.
   [Yeh, Pat J. -F.] Natl Univ Singapore, Dept Civil & Environm Engn, Singapore 117548, Singapore.
   [Hanasaki, Naota] Natl Inst Environm Studies, Tsukuba, Ibaraki, Japan.
   [Longuevergne, Laurent] Univ Rennes, UMR CNRS Geosci Rennes 6118, Rennes, France.
   [Kanae, Shinjiro] Tokyo Inst Technol, Dept Civil Engn, Tokyo 152, Japan.
   [Oki, Taikan] Univ Tokyo, Inst Ind Sci, Tokyo, Japan.
C3 Michigan State University; Max Planck Society; National University of
   Singapore; National Institute for Environmental Studies - Japan;
   Universite de Rennes; Institute of Science Tokyo; Tokyo Institute of
   Technology; University of Tokyo
RP Pokhrel, YN (corresponding author), Michigan State Univ, Dept Civil & Environm Engn, E Lansing, MI 48824 USA.
EM ypokhrel@egr.msu.edu
RI Yeh, Pat J-F/B-2758-2011; Longuevergne, Laurent/F-4641-2010; Kanae,
   Shinjiro/E-5606-2010; Pokhrel, Yadu/J-6440-2013; Koirala,
   Sujan/J-6502-2016; Hanasaki, Naota/C-2932-2009; Oki, Taikan/E-5778-2010
OI Yeh, Pat J-F/0000-0001-7629-3362; Longuevergne,
   Laurent/0000-0003-3169-743X; Kanae, Shinjiro/0000-0002-3176-4957;
   Pokhrel, Yadu/0000-0002-1367-216X; Oki, Taikan/0000-0003-4067-4678
FU Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science, and Technology (MEXT),
   Japan; Japan Society for the Promotion of Science KAKENHI [23226012];
   Grants-in-Aid for Scientific Research [23226012] Funding Source: KAKEN
FX We would like to thank Bridget Scanlon for providing with the data for
   the CVA. We also thank Hyungjun Kim for the forcing data. The study was
   partially supported by the Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports,
   Science, and Technology (MEXT), Japan and the Japan Society for the
   Promotion of Science KAKENHI, Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (S)
   (23226012). Different data set used for model evaluation was obtained
   from various sources described in section 2.6. While the irrigation and
   groundwater withdrawal data can be downloaded freely from the FAO
   website (http://www.fao.org/nr/water/aquastat/main/index.stm), the other
   data should be obtained from the authors of the references provided in
   the paper.
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NR 102
TC 181
Z9 208
U1 5
U2 111
PU AMER GEOPHYSICAL UNION
PI WASHINGTON
PA 2000 FLORIDA AVE NW, WASHINGTON, DC 20009 USA
SN 0043-1397
EI 1944-7973
J9 WATER RESOUR RES
JI Water Resour. Res.
PD JAN
PY 2015
VL 51
IS 1
BP 78
EP 96
DI 10.1002/2014WR015602
PG 19
WC Environmental Sciences; Limnology; Water Resources
WE Science Citation Index Expanded (SCI-EXPANDED)
SC Environmental Sciences & Ecology; Marine & Freshwater Biology; Water
   Resources
GA CB8OO
UT WOS:000349889800005
DA 2026-06-14
ER

PT J
AU Di Vittorio, AV
   Chini, LP
   Bond-Lamberty, B
   Mao, J
   Shi, X
   Truesdale, J
   Craig, A
   Calvin, K
   Jones, A
   Collins, WD
   Edmonds, J
   Hurtt, GC
   Thornton, P
   Thomson, A
AF Di Vittorio, A. V.
   Chini, L. P.
   Bond-Lamberty, B.
   Mao, J.
   Shi, X.
   Truesdale, J.
   Craig, A.
   Calvin, K.
   Jones, A.
   Collins, W. D.
   Edmonds, J.
   Hurtt, G. C.
   Thornton, P.
   Thomson, A.
TI From land use to land cover: restoring the afforestation signal in a
   coupled integrated assessment-earth system model and the implications
   for CMIP5 RCP simulations
SO BIOGEOSCIENCES
LA English
DT Article
ID CLIMATE-CHANGE; WOOD-HARVEST; USE TRANSITIONS; CARBON-CYCLE; CO2;
   IMPACTS; STABILIZATION; AGRICULTURE; SCENARIOS; EMISSIONS
AB Climate projections depend on scenarios of fossil fuel emissions and land use change, and the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) AR5 parallel process assumes consistent climate scenarios across integrated assessment and earth system models (IAMs and ESMs). The CMIP5 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5) project used a novel "land use harmonization" based on the Global Land use Model (GLM) to provide ESMs with consistent 1500-2100 land use trajectories generated by historical data and four IAMs. A direct coupling of the Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM), GLM, and the Community ESM (CESM) has allowed us to characterize and partially address a major gap in the CMIP5 land coupling design: the lack of a corresponding land cover harmonization. For RCP4.5, CESM global afforestation is only 22% of GCAM's 2005 to 2100 afforestation. Likewise, only 17% of GCAM's 2040 afforestation, and zero pasture loss, were transmitted to CESM within the directly coupled model. This is a problem because GCAM relied on afforestation to achieve RCP4.5 climate stabilization. GLM modifications and sharing forest area between GCAM and GLM within the directly coupled model did not increase CESM afforestation. Modifying the land use translator in addition to GLM, however, enabled CESM to include 66% of GCAM's afforestation in 2040, and 94% of GCAM's pasture loss as grassland and shrubland losses. This additional afforestation increases CESM vegetation carbon gain by 19 PgC and decreases atmospheric CO2 gain by 8 ppmv from 2005 to 2040, which demonstrates that CESM without additional afforestation simulates a different RCP4.5 scenario than prescribed by GCAM. Similar land cover inconsistencies exist in other CMIP5 model results, primarily because land cover information is not shared between models. Further work to harmonize land cover among models will be required to increase fidelity between IAM scenarios and ESM simulations and realize the full potential of scenario-based earth system simulations.
C1 [Di Vittorio, A. V.; Truesdale, J.; Craig, A.; Jones, A.; Collins, W. D.] Univ Calif Berkeley, Lawrence Berkeley Natl Lab, Berkeley, CA 94720 USA.
   [Chini, L. P.; Hurtt, G. C.] Univ Maryland, College Pk, MD 20742 USA.
   [Bond-Lamberty, B.; Calvin, K.; Edmonds, J.; Thomson, A.] Pacific NW Natl Lab, Joint Global Change Res Inst, College Pk, MD USA.
   [Mao, J.; Shi, X.; Thornton, P.] Oak Ridge Natl Lab, Climate Change Sci Inst, Oak Ridge, TN USA.
C3 University of California System; University of California Berkeley;
   United States Department of Energy (DOE); Lawrence Berkeley National
   Laboratory; University System of Maryland; University of Maryland
   College Park; United States Department of Energy (DOE); Pacific
   Northwest National Laboratory; United States Department of Energy (DOE);
   Oak Ridge National Laboratory
RP Di Vittorio, AV (corresponding author), Univ Calif Berkeley, Lawrence Berkeley Natl Lab, Berkeley, CA 94720 USA.
EM avdivittorio@lbl.gov
RI Chini, Louise/LEL-7744-2024; Collins, William/J-3147-2014;
   Bond-Lamberty, Benjamin/C-6058-2008; Jones, Andrew/M-4363-2013; Shi,
   Xiaoying/C-4447-2012; Thoon, Allison/GRO-3207-2022; Hurtt,
   George/A-8450-2012; Thornton, Peter/B-9145-2012; Di Vittorio,
   Alan/M-5325-2013; Mao, Jiafu/B-9689-2012; Calvin,
   Katherine/ADF-2443-2022
OI Chini, Louise/0000-0002-9070-3505; Collins, William/0000-0002-4463-9848;
   Bond-Lamberty, Benjamin/0000-0001-9525-4633; Jones,
   Andrew/0000-0002-1913-7870; Shi, Xiaoying/0000-0001-8994-5032; Thoon,
   Allison/0000-0001-5326-1755; Hurtt, George/0000-0001-7278-202X;
   Thornton, Peter/0000-0002-4759-5158; Di Vittorio,
   Alan/0000-0002-8139-4640; Mao, Jiafu/0000-0002-2050-7373; Calvin,
   Katherine/0000-0003-2191-4189
FU US Department of Energy, Office of Science, Office of Biological and
   Environmental Research [DE-AC02-05CH11231]; National Science Foundation;
   Office of Science (Biological and Environmental Research) of the US
   Department of Energy; National Aeronautics and Space Administration
FX We are extremely grateful to Peter Lawrence (National Center for
   Atmospheric Research) for providing the original CESM land use
   translation code. We also thank the reviewers for helping us clarify and
   strengthen this paper. This material is based on work supported by the
   US Department of Energy, Office of Science, Office of Biological and
   Environmental Research under Award Number DE-AC02-05CH11231 as part of
   the Integrated Assessment Research and Earth System Modeling Programs.
   This project used resources of the National Energy Research Scientific
   Computing Center (NERSC), which is a DOE Office of Science User
   Facility. The CESM project is supported by the National Science
   Foundation and the Office of Science (Biological and Environmental
   Research) of the US Department of Energy. We also gratefully acknowledge
   the support of the National Aeronautics and Space Administration.
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NR 49
TC 32
Z9 33
U1 1
U2 22
PU COPERNICUS GESELLSCHAFT MBH
PI GOTTINGEN
PA BAHNHOFSALLEE 1E, GOTTINGEN, 37081, GERMANY
SN 1726-4170
EI 1726-4189
J9 BIOGEOSCIENCES
JI Biogeosciences
PY 2014
VL 11
IS 22
BP 6435
EP 6450
DI 10.5194/bg-11-6435-2014
PG 16
WC Ecology; Geosciences, Multidisciplinary
WE Science Citation Index Expanded (SCI-EXPANDED)
SC Environmental Sciences & Ecology; Geology
GA AW6CJ
UT WOS:000346356800020
OA Green Submitted, gold
DA 2026-06-14
ER

PT J
AU Wada, Y
   Wisser, D
   Bierkens, MFP
AF Wada, Y.
   Wisser, D.
   Bierkens, M. F. P.
TI Global modeling of withdrawal, allocation and consumptive use of surface
   water and groundwater resources
SO EARTH SYSTEM DYNAMICS
LA English
DT Article
ID CLIMATE-CHANGE; ANTHROPOGENIC IMPACTS; INTEGRATED MODEL; RUNOFF; MAP;
   REQUIREMENTS; AVAILABILITY; DEPLETION; SCHEME; YIELD
AB To sustain growing food demand and increasing standard of living, global water withdrawal and consumptive water use have been increasing rapidly. To analyze the human perturbation on water resources consistently over large scales, a number of macro-scale hydrological models (MHMs) have been developed in recent decades. However, few models consider the interaction between terrestrial water fluxes, and human activities and associated water use, and even fewer models distinguish water use from surface water and groundwater resources. Here, we couple a global water demand model with a global hydrological model and dynamically simulate daily water withdrawal and consumptive water use over the period 1979-2010, using two re-analysis products: ERA-Interim and MERRA. We explicitly take into account the mutual feedback between supply and demand, and implement a newly developed water allocation scheme to distinguish surface water and groundwater use. Moreover, we include a new irrigation scheme, which works dynamically with a daily surface and soil water balance, and incorporate the newly available extensive Global Reservoir and Dams data set (GRanD). Simulated surface water and groundwater withdrawals generally show good agreement with reported national and subnational statistics. The results show a consistent increase in both surface water and groundwater use worldwide, with a more rapid increase in groundwater use since the 1990s. Human impacts on terrestrial water storage (TWS) signals are evident, altering the seasonal and interannual variability. This alteration is particularly large over heavily regulated basins such as the Colorado and the Columbia, and over the major irrigated basins such as the Mississippi, the Indus, and the Ganges. Including human water use and associated reservoir operations generally improves the correlation of simulated TWS anomalies with those of the GRACE observations.
C1 [Wada, Y.] Univ Utrecht, Dept Phys Geog, NL-3584 CS Utrecht, Netherlands.
   [Wisser, D.] Univ Bonn, Ctr Dev Res ZEF, D-53113 Bonn, Germany.
   [Wisser, D.] Univ New Hampshire, Inst Study Earth Oceans & Space, Durham, NH 03824 USA.
   [Bierkens, M. F. P.] Deltares, Unit Soil & Groundwater Syst, NL-3584 CB Utrecht, Netherlands.
C3 Utrecht University; University of Bonn; University System Of New
   Hampshire; University of New Hampshire; Deltares
RP Wada, Y (corresponding author), Univ Utrecht, Dept Phys Geog, Heidelberglaan 2, NL-3584 CS Utrecht, Netherlands.
EM y.wada@uu.nl
RI Wada, Yoshihide/F-3595-2012; /AGF-8977-2022; Bierkens, Marc
   F.P/JAC-9727-2023
OI Wada, Yoshihide/0000-0003-4770-2539; Wisser,
   Dominik/0000-0001-8368-3801; Bierkens, Marc F.P/0000-0002-7411-6562
FU Research Focus Earth and Sustainability of Utrecht University [FM0906]
FX We thank three anonymous reviewers and Petra Doll for their constructive
   and thoughtful suggestions, which substantially helped to improve the
   quality of the manuscript. We also thank L. P. H. van Beek for the
   useful discussion and his support. Y. Wada was financially supported by
   Research Focus Earth and Sustainability of Utrecht University (Project
   FM0906: Global Assessment of Water Resources). The authors are very
   grateful to all the contributors (as acknowledged in the references) who
   provided the data sets used in this study.
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NR 112
TC 637
Z9 726
U1 3
U2 371
PU COPERNICUS GESELLSCHAFT MBH
PI GOTTINGEN
PA BAHNHOFSALLEE 1E, GOTTINGEN, 37081, GERMANY
SN 2190-4979
EI 2190-4987
J9 EARTH SYST DYNAM
JI Earth Syst. Dynam.
PY 2014
VL 5
IS 1
BP 15
EP 40
DI 10.5194/esd-5-15-2014
PG 26
WC Geosciences, Multidisciplinary
WE Science Citation Index Expanded (SCI-EXPANDED)
SC Geology
GA AK9QN
UT WOS:000338761800002
OA Green Submitted, gold
DA 2026-06-14
ER

PT J
AU Jones, AD
   Collins, WD
   Edmonds, J
   Torn, MS
   Janetos, A
   Calvin, KV
   Thomson, A
   Chini, LP
   Mao, JF
   Shi, XY
   Thornton, P
   Hurtt, GC
   Wise, M
AF Jones, Andrew D.
   Collins, William D.
   Edmonds, James
   Torn, Margaret S.
   Janetos, Anthony
   Calvin, Katherine V.
   Thomson, Allison
   Chini, Louise P.
   Mao, Jiafu
   Shi, Xiaoying
   Thornton, Peter
   Hurtt, George C.
   Wise, Marshall
TI Greenhouse Gas Policy Influences Climate via Direct Effects of Land-Use
   Change
SO JOURNAL OF CLIMATE
LA English
DT Article
ID COVER CHANGE; WOOD-HARVEST; USE TRANSITIONS; SYSTEM MODEL; SCENARIOS;
   IMPACTS; FUTURE; FOREST; DEFORESTATION; SENSITIVITY
AB Proposed climate mitigation measures do not account for direct biophysical climate impacts of land-use change (LUC), nor do the stabilization targets modeled for phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) representative concentration pathways (RCPs). To examine the significance of such effects on global and regional patterns of climate change, a baseline and an alternative scenario of future anthropogenic activity are simulated within the Integrated Earth System Model, which couples the Global Change Assessment Model, Global Land-Use Model, and Community Earth System Model. The alternative scenario has high biofuel utilization and approximately 50% less global forest cover than the baseline, standard RCP4.5 scenario. Both scenarios stabilize radiative forcing from atmospheric constituents at 4.5 W m(-2) by 2100. Thus, differences between their climate predictions quantify the biophysical effects of LUC. Offline radiative transfer and land model simulations are also utilized to identify forcing and feedback mechanisms driving the coupled response. Boreal deforestation is found to strongly influence climate because of increased albedo coupled with a regional-scale water vapor feedback. Globally, the alternative scenario yields a twenty-first-century warming trend that is 0.5 degrees C cooler than baseline, driven by a 1 W m(-2) mean decrease in radiative forcing that is distributed unevenly around the globe. Some regions are cooler in the alternative scenario than in 2005. These results demonstrate that neither climate change nor actual radiative forcing is uniquely related to atmospheric forcing targets such as those found in the RCPs but rather depend on particulars of the socioeconomic pathways followed to meet each target.
C1 [Jones, Andrew D.; Collins, William D.; Torn, Margaret S.] Univ Calif Berkeley, Lawrence Berkeley Natl Lab, Berkeley, CA 94720 USA.
   [Jones, Andrew D.; Collins, William D.; Torn, Margaret S.] Univ Calif Berkeley, Berkeley, CA 94720 USA.
   [Edmonds, James; Janetos, Anthony; Calvin, Katherine V.; Thomson, Allison; Wise, Marshall] Pacific NW Natl Lab, College Pk, MD USA.
   [Edmonds, James; Janetos, Anthony; Calvin, Katherine V.; Thomson, Allison; Wise, Marshall] Joint Global Change Res Inst, College Pk, MD USA.
   [Mao, Jiafu; Shi, Xiaoying; Thornton, Peter] Oak Ridge Natl Lab, Oak Ridge, TN USA.
   [Chini, Louise P.; Hurtt, George C.] Univ Maryland, College Pk, MD 20742 USA.
C3 University of California System; University of California Berkeley;
   United States Department of Energy (DOE); Lawrence Berkeley National
   Laboratory; University of California System; University of California
   Berkeley; United States Department of Energy (DOE); Pacific Northwest
   National Laboratory; United States Department of Energy (DOE); Oak Ridge
   National Laboratory; University System of Maryland; University of
   Maryland College Park
RP Jones, AD (corresponding author), Univ Calif Berkeley, Lawrence Berkeley Natl Lab, 1 Cyclotron Rd,MS 74-0171, Berkeley, CA 94720 USA.
EM adjones@lbl.gov
RI Mao, Jiafu/B-9689-2012; Hurtt, George/A-8450-2012; Shi,
   Xiaoying/C-4447-2012; Thoon, Allison/GRO-3207-2022; Torn,
   Margaret/D-2305-2015; Jones, Andrew/M-4363-2013; Thornton,
   Peter/B-9145-2012; Calvin, Katherine/ADF-2443-2022; Collins,
   William/J-3147-2014; Chini, Louise/LEL-7744-2024
OI Mao, Jiafu/0000-0002-2050-7373; Hurtt, George/0000-0001-7278-202X; Shi,
   Xiaoying/0000-0001-8994-5032; Thoon, Allison/0000-0001-5326-1755; Torn,
   Margaret/0000-0002-8174-0099; Jones, Andrew/0000-0002-1913-7870;
   Thornton, Peter/0000-0002-4759-5158; Calvin,
   Katherine/0000-0003-2191-4189; Collins, William/0000-0002-4463-9848; 
FU Office of Science, Office of Biological and Environmental Research,
   Climate Change Research Division, of the U.S. Department of Energy
   [DE-AC02-05CH11231]; Office of Science of the U.S. Department of Energy
   [DE-AC02-05CH11231]; National Science Foundation; Office of Science
   (Biological and Environmental Research) of the U.S. Department of Energy
FX This work was supported by the Director, Office of Science, Office of
   Biological and Environmental Research, Climate Change Research Division,
   of the U.S. Department of Energy under Contract DE-AC02-05CH11231. In
   addition, this research used resources of the National Energy Research
   Scientific Computing Center, which is supported by the Office of Science
   of the U.S. Department of Energy under Contract DE-AC02-05CH11231. The
   CESM project is supported by the National Science Foundation and the
   Office of Science (Biological and Environmental Research) of the U.S.
   Department of Energy.
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NR 48
TC 49
Z9 52
U1 1
U2 68
PU AMER METEOROLOGICAL SOC
PI BOSTON
PA 45 BEACON ST, BOSTON, MA 02108-3693 USA
SN 0894-8755
EI 1520-0442
J9 J CLIMATE
JI J. Clim.
PD JUN
PY 2013
VL 26
IS 11
BP 3657
EP 3670
DI 10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00377.1
PG 14
WC Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
WE Science Citation Index Expanded (SCI-EXPANDED)
SC Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
GA 155HT
UT WOS:000319739300011
OA Green Submitted, Bronze
DA 2026-06-14
ER

PT J
AU Pokhrel, Y
   Hanasaki, N
   Koirala, S
   Cho, J
   Yeh, PJF
   Kim, H
   Kanae, S
   Oki, T
AF Pokhrel, Yadu
   Hanasaki, Naota
   Koirala, Sujan
   Cho, Jaeil
   Yeh, Pat J. -F.
   Kim, Hyungjun
   Kanae, Shinjiro
   Oki, Taikan
TI Incorporating Anthropogenic Water Regulation Modules into a Land Surface
   Model
SO JOURNAL OF HYDROMETEOROLOGY
LA English
DT Article
ID GLOBAL PRECIPITATION; INTEGRATED MODEL; SOIL-MOISTURE; IRRIGATION; PART;
   PARAMETERIZATION; TRANSPIRATION; RESOURCES; HYDROLOGY; CLIMATE
AB Anthropogenic activities have been significantly perturbing global freshwater flows and groundwater reserves. Despite numerous advances in the development of land surface models (LSMs) and global terrestrial hydrological models (GHMs), relatively few studies have attempted to simulate the impacts of anthropogenic activities on the terrestrial water cycle using the framework of LSMs. From the comparison of simulated terrestrial water storage with the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) satellite observations it is found that a process-based LSM, the Minimal Advanced Treatments of Surface Interaction and Runoff (MATSIRO), outperforms the bucket-model-based OHM called H08 in simulating hydrologic variables, particularly in water-limited regions. Therefore, the water regulation modules of H08 are incorporated into MATSIRO. Further, a new irrigation scheme based on the soil moisture deficit is developed. Incorporation of anthropogenic water regulation modules significantly improves river discharge simulation in the heavily regulated global river basins. Simulated irrigation water withdrawal for the year 2000 (2462 km(3) yr(-1)) agrees well with the estimates provided by the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO). Results indicate that irrigation changes surface energy balance, causing a maximum increase of similar to 50 W m(-2) in latent heat flux averaged over June-August. Moreover, unsustainable anthropogenic water use in 2000 is estimated to be similar to 450 km(3) yr(-1), which corresponds well with documented records of groundwater overdraft, representing an encouraging improvement over the previous modeling studies. Globally, unsustainable water use accounts for similar to 40% of blue water used for irrigation. The representation of anthropogenic activities in MATSIRO makes the model a suitable tool for assessing potential anthropogenic impacts on global water resources and hydrology.
C1 [Pokhrel, Yadu; Yeh, Pat J. -F.; Kim, Hyungjun; Oki, Taikan] Univ Tokyo, Inst Ind Sci, Tokyo 1538505, Japan.
   [Hanasaki, Naota] Natl Inst Environm Studies, Tsukuba, Ibaraki, Japan.
   [Koirala, Sujan; Kanae, Shinjiro] Tokyo Inst Technol, Dept Mech & Environm Informat, Tokyo 152, Japan.
   [Cho, Jaeil] Kyushu Univ, Fukuoka 812, Japan.
   [Kim, Hyungjun] Univ Calif Irvine, Ctr Hydrol Modeling, Irvine, CA USA.
C3 University of Tokyo; National Institute for Environmental Studies -
   Japan; Institute of Science Tokyo; Tokyo Institute of Technology; Kyushu
   University; University of California System; University of California
   Irvine
RP Pokhrel, Y (corresponding author), Univ Tokyo, Inst Ind Sci, 4-6-1 Meguro, Tokyo 1538505, Japan.
EM pokhrel@rainbow.iis.u-tokyo.ac.jp
RI KIM, HYUNGJUN/I-5099-2014; Cho, Jaeil/F-6039-2011; Hanasaki,
   Naota/C-2932-2009; Oki, Taikan/E-5778-2010; Kanae, Shinjiro/E-5606-2010;
   Koirala, Sujan/J-6502-2016; Yeh, Pat J-F/B-2758-2011; Pokhrel,
   Yadu/J-6440-2013
OI KIM, HYUNGJUN/0000-0003-1083-8416; Cho, Jaeil/0000-0002-3375-4357; Oki,
   Taikan/0000-0003-4067-4678; Kanae, Shinjiro/0000-0002-3176-4957; Yeh,
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FU Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science and Technology (MEXT);
   Ministry of Environment [S5]; JSPS [23226012]; Grants-in-Aid for
   Scientific Research [23226012] Funding Source: KAKEN
FX We wish to thank P. Doll and F. Portmann for providing global irrigation
   estimates of the WaterGAP model. We also thank the Global Runoff Data
   Center and GRACE science project for providing valuable datasets. We are
   also grateful to Y. Ishizaki for the support in model settings and S.
   Yoshikawa for helping with data preparation. The first author
   acknowledges the support by the Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports,
   Science and Technology (MEXT). This work was partially supported by
   Global Environment Research Fund (GERF; S5) from the Ministry of
   Environment, JSPS KAKENHI, Grants-in-Aid for Scientific Research
   (S)(23226012), and Innovative Program of Climate Change Projection for
   the 21st Century from MEXT. We also thank three anonymous reviewers for
   the constructive comments that improved the manuscript.
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NR 80
TC 224
Z9 247
U1 5
U2 102
PU AMER METEOROLOGICAL SOC
PI BOSTON
PA 45 BEACON ST, BOSTON, MA 02108-3693, UNITED STATES
SN 1525-755X
EI 1525-7541
J9 J HYDROMETEOROL
JI J. Hydrometeorol.
PD FEB
PY 2012
VL 13
IS 1
BP 255
EP 269
DI 10.1175/JHM-D-11-013.1
PG 15
WC Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
WE Science Citation Index Expanded (SCI-EXPANDED)
SC Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
GA 890IN
UT WOS:000300138400015
OA Bronze
DA 2026-06-14
ER

PT J
AU van Vuuren, DP
   Stehfest, E
   den Elzen, MGJ
   Kram, T
   van Vliet, J
   Deetman, S
   Isaac, M
   Goldewijk, KK
   Hof, A
   Beltran, AM
   Oostenrijk, R
   van Ruijven, B
AF van Vuuren, Detlef P.
   Stehfest, Elke
   den Elzen, Michel G. J.
   Kram, Tom
   van Vliet, Jasper
   Deetman, Sebastiaan
   Isaac, Morna
   Goldewijk, Kees Klein
   Hof, Andries
   Beltran, Angelica Mendoza
   Oostenrijk, Rineke
   van Ruijven, Bas
TI RCP2.6: exploring the possibility to keep global mean temperature
   increase below 2°C
SO CLIMATIC CHANGE
LA English
DT Article
ID GREENHOUSE-GAS; BIO-ENERGY; CONCENTRATION TARGETS; CARBON CAPTURE;
   POTENTIAL ROLE; SCENARIOS; EMISSIONS; STORAGE; COSTS; STRATEGIES
AB The RCP2.6 emission and concentration pathway is representative of the literature on mitigation scenarios aiming to limit the increase of global mean temperature to 2 degrees C. These scenarios form the low end of the scenario literature in terms of emissions and radiative forcing. They often show negative emissions from energy use in the second half of the 21st century. The RCP2.6 scenario is shown to be technically feasible in the IMAGE integrated assessment modeling framework from a medium emission baseline scenario, assuming full participation of all countries. Cumulative emissions of greenhouse gases from 2010 to 2100 need to be reduced by 70% compared to a baseline scenario, requiring substantial changes in energy use and emissions of non-CO2 gases. These measures (specifically the use of bio-energy and reforestation measures) also have clear consequences for global land use. Based on the RCP2.6 scenario, recommendations for further research on low emission scenarios have been formulated. These include the response of the climate system to a radiative forcing peak, the ability of society to achieve the required emission reduction rates given political and social inertia and the possibilities to further reduce emissions of non-CO2 gases.
C1 [van Vuuren, Detlef P.; Stehfest, Elke; den Elzen, Michel G. J.; Kram, Tom; van Vliet, Jasper; Deetman, Sebastiaan; Isaac, Morna; Goldewijk, Kees Klein; Hof, Andries; Beltran, Angelica Mendoza; Oostenrijk, Rineke; van Ruijven, Bas] PBL Netherlands Environm Assessment Agcy, NL-3720 BA Bilthoven, Netherlands.
   [van Vuuren, Detlef P.] Univ Utrecht, Dept Geog, Utrecht, Netherlands.
C3 Utrecht University
RP van Vuuren, DP (corresponding author), PBL Netherlands Environm Assessment Agcy, POB 303, NL-3720 BA Bilthoven, Netherlands.
EM detlef.vanvuuren@pbl.nl
RI van Vuuren, Detlef/A-4764-2009; Hof, Andries/AFB-4199-2022; den Elzen,
   Michel/M-2779-2016; Mendoza Beltran, Angelica/K-8298-2013; Deetman,
   Sebastiaan/M-8211-2013; Klein Goldewijk, Kees/L-5567-2013; van Ruijven,
   Bas/G-8106-2011; Stehfest, Elke/AAZ-4121-2020
OI van Vuuren, Detlef/0000-0003-0398-2831; Hof,
   Andries/0000-0002-7568-5038; van Vliet, Jasper/0000-0001-7055-0815; den
   Elzen, Michel/0000-0002-5128-8150; Mendoza Beltran,
   Angelica/0000-0001-5837-5970; Deetman, Sebastiaan/0000-0002-1820-658X;
   Klein Goldewijk, Kees/0000-0003-2714-7507; van Ruijven,
   Bas/0000-0003-1232-5892; 
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NR 47
TC 1813
Z9 1919
U1 6
U2 260
PU SPRINGER
PI DORDRECHT
PA VAN GODEWIJCKSTRAAT 30, 3311 GZ DORDRECHT, NETHERLANDS
SN 0165-0009
EI 1573-1480
J9 CLIMATIC CHANGE
JI Clim. Change
PD NOV
PY 2011
VL 109
IS 1-2
SI SI
BP 95
EP 116
DI 10.1007/s10584-011-0152-3
PG 22
WC Environmental Sciences; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
WE Science Citation Index Expanded (SCI-EXPANDED)
SC Environmental Sciences & Ecology; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
GA 852IE
UT WOS:000297350200006
OA Green Submitted, hybrid
DA 2026-06-14
ER

PT J
AU van Vuuren, DP
   Stehfest, E
   den Elzen, MGJ
   van Vliet, J
   Isaac, M
AF van Vuuren, Detlef P.
   Stehfest, Elke
   den Elzen, Michel G. J.
   van Vliet, Jasper
   Isaac, Morna
TI Exploring IMAGE model scenarios that keep greenhouse gas radiative
   forcing below 3 W/m2 in 2100
SO ENERGY ECONOMICS
LA English
DT Article
DE Scenarios; Integrated assessment; Concentration targets
ID COSTS; TARGETS; REDUCTIONS; EMISSIONS
AB A high probability of limiting temperature increase to 2 degrees C requires a radiative forcing below 3 W/m(2), around the end of this century, according to current knowledge. This paper identifies conditions under which achieving such low radiative forcing levels is feasible. Calculations here show that such targets could be achieved, based on technical and physical considerations, provided some key conditions are met. These key conditions include early participation by major sectors and regions in sufficiently stringent policy regimes. and a wide portfolio of mitigation options. Bio-energy and carbon capture and storage (CCS) play an important role in achieving low stabilisation targets. This would require optimistic assumptions with respect to the expansion of the area needed for food production, to allow space for bio-energy crops, and a significant increase in the efficiency of second-generation biofuels. The sensitivity analysis shows that if certain technologies are removed from the available portfolio, low targets - especially the 2.6 W/m(2) target - are no longer within reach. (C) 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
RP van Vuuren, DP (corresponding author), Netherlands Environm Assessment Agcy, POB 303, NL-3720 AH Bilthoven, Netherlands.
EM detlef.vanvuuren@pbl.nl
RI den Elzen, Michel/M-2779-2016; van Vuuren, Detlef/A-4764-2009; Stehfest,
   Elke/AAZ-4121-2020
OI den Elzen, Michel/0000-0002-5128-8150; van Vliet,
   Jasper/0000-0001-7055-0815; van Vuuren, Detlef/0000-0003-0398-2831; 
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NR 59
TC 58
Z9 67
U1 0
U2 22
PU ELSEVIER
PI AMSTERDAM
PA RADARWEG 29, 1043 NX AMSTERDAM, NETHERLANDS
SN 0140-9883
EI 1873-6181
J9 ENERG ECON
JI Energy Econ.
PD SEP
PY 2010
VL 32
IS 5
BP 1105
EP 1120
DI 10.1016/j.eneco.2010.03.001
PG 16
WC Economics
WE Social Science Citation Index (SSCI)
SC Business & Economics
GA 670VE
UT WOS:000283454600016
DA 2026-06-14
ER

PT J
AU Stehfest, E
   Bouwman, L
   van Vuuren, DP
   den Elzen, MGJ
   Eickhout, B
   Kabat, P
AF Stehfest, Elke
   Bouwman, Lex
   van Vuuren, Detlef P.
   den Elzen, Michel G. J.
   Eickhout, Bas
   Kabat, Pavel
TI Climate benefits of changing diet
SO CLIMATIC CHANGE
LA English
DT Article
ID GREENHOUSE-GAS; DISTRIBUTIONS; TARGETS; MEAT
AB Climate change mitigation policies tend to focus on the energy sector, while the livestock sector receives surprisingly little attention, despite the fact that it accounts for 18% of the greenhouse gas emissions and for 80% of total anthropogenic land use. From a dietary perspective, new insights in the adverse health effects of beef and pork have lead to a revision of meat consumption recommendations. Here, we explored the potential impact of dietary changes on achieving ambitious climate stabilization levels. By using an integrated assessment model, we found a global food transition to less meat, or even a complete switch to plant-based protein food to have a dramatic effect on land use. Up to 2,700 Mha of pasture and 100 Mha of cropland could be abandoned, resulting in a large carbon uptake from regrowing vegetation. Additionally, methane and nitrous oxide emission would be reduced substantially. A global transition to a low meat-diet as recommended for health reasons would reduce the mitigation costs to achieve a 450 ppm CO2-eq. stabilisation target by about 50% in 2050 compared to the reference case. Dietary changes could therefore not only create substantial benefits for human health and global land use, but can also play an important role in future climate change mitigation policies.
C1 [Stehfest, Elke; Bouwman, Lex; van Vuuren, Detlef P.; den Elzen, Michel G. J.; Eickhout, Bas] Netherlands Environm Assessment Agcy, Global Sustainabil & Climate, NL-3720 AH Bilthoven, Netherlands.
   [Bouwman, Lex; Kabat, Pavel] Wageningen Univ Res Ctr, Earth Syst Sci & Climate Change Grp, NL-6700 AA Wageningen, Netherlands.
C3 Netherlands National Institute for Public Health & the Environment;
   Wageningen University & Research
RP Stehfest, E (corresponding author), Netherlands Environm Assessment Agcy, Global Sustainabil & Climate, POB 303, NL-3720 AH Bilthoven, Netherlands.
EM Elke.Stehfest@pbl.nl
RI ; van Vuuren, Detlef/A-4764-2009; Kabat, Pavel/AAJ-2245-2020; Stehfest,
   Elke/AAZ-4121-2020; den Elzen, Michel/M-2779-2016; Bouwman,
   Lex/B-7053-2012
OI Harbo, Lotte Junker/0000-0002-1753-8187; van Vuuren,
   Detlef/0000-0003-0398-2831; Kabat, Pavel/0009-0000-6148-0448; den Elzen,
   Michel/0000-0002-5128-8150; Bouwman, Lex/0000-0002-2045-1859
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NR 50
TC 580
Z9 693
U1 0
U2 479
PU SPRINGER
PI DORDRECHT
PA VAN GODEWIJCKSTRAAT 30, 3311 GZ DORDRECHT, NETHERLANDS
SN 0165-0009
EI 1573-1480
J9 CLIMATIC CHANGE
JI Clim. Change
PD JUL
PY 2009
VL 95
IS 1-2
BP 83
EP 102
DI 10.1007/s10584-008-9534-6
PG 20
WC Environmental Sciences; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
WE Science Citation Index Expanded (SCI-EXPANDED)
SC Environmental Sciences & Ecology; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
GA 462OL
UT WOS:000267365400007
DA 2026-06-14
ER

PT J
AU Voldoire, A
   Eickhout, B
   Schaeffer, M
   Royer, JF
   Chauvin, F
AF Voldoire, Aurore
   Eickhout, Bas
   Schaeffer, Michiel
   Royer, Jean-Francois
   Chauvin, Fabrice
TI Climate simulation of the twenty-first century with interactive land-use
   changes
SO CLIMATE DYNAMICS
LA English
DT Article
ID COVER CHANGE; TROPICAL DEFORESTATION; VEGETATION; MODEL; SCALE;
   DYNAMICS; IMPACT; SCHEME; VARIABILITY; SENSITIVITY
AB To include land-use dynamics in a general circulation model (GCM), the physical system has to be linked to a system that represents socio-economy. This issue is addressed by coupling an integrated assessment model, IMAGE2.2, to an ocean-atmosphere GCM, CNRM-CM3. In the new system, IMAGE2.2 provides CNRM-CM3 with all the external forcings that are scenario dependent: greenhouse gas (GHGs) concentrations, sulfate aerosols charge and land cover. Conversely, the GCM gives IMAGE changes in mean temperature and precipitation. With this new system, we have run an adapted scenario of the IPCC SRES scenario family. We have chosen a single scenario with maximum land-use changes (SRES A2), to illustrate some important feedback issues. Even in this two-way coupled model set-up, land use in this scenario is mainly driven by demographic and agricultural practices, which overpowers a potential influence of climate feedbacks on land-use patterns. This suggests that for scenarios in which socio-economically driven land-use change is very large, land-use changes can be incorporated in GCM simulations as a one-way driving force, without taking into account climate feedbacks. The dynamics of natural vegetation is more closely linked to climate but the time-scale of changes is of the order of a century. Thus, the coupling between natural vegetation and climate could generate important feedbacks but these effects are relevant mainly for multi-centennial simulations.
C1 CNRS, CNRM, GAME, Meteo France, F-31057 Toulouse 1, France.
   Netherlands Environm Assessment Agcy, Bilthoven, Netherlands.
   Univ Wageningen & Res Ctr, Wageningen, Netherlands.
C3 Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS); Netherlands
   National Institute for Public Health & the Environment; Wageningen
   University & Research
RP Voldoire, A (corresponding author), CNRS, CNRM, GAME, Meteo France, 42 Ave G Coriolis, F-31057 Toulouse 1, France.
EM aurore.voldoire@meteo.fr
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   Michiel/0000-0003-0052-5088
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NR 52
TC 29
Z9 43
U1 0
U2 19
PU SPRINGER
PI NEW YORK
PA ONE NEW YORK PLAZA, SUITE 4600, NEW YORK, NY, UNITED STATES
SN 0930-7575
EI 1432-0894
J9 CLIM DYNAM
JI Clim. Dyn.
PD AUG
PY 2007
VL 29
IS 2-3
BP 177
EP 193
DI 10.1007/s00382-007-0228-y
PG 17
WC Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
WE Science Citation Index Expanded (SCI-EXPANDED)
SC Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
GA 178EI
UT WOS:000247203600004
OA Green Submitted
DA 2026-06-14
ER

PT J
AU Schaeffer, M
   Eickhout, B
   Hoogwijk, M
   Strengers, B
   van Vuuren, D
   Leemans, R
   Opsteegh, T
AF Schaeffer, M.
   Eickhout, B.
   Hoogwijk, M.
   Strengers, B.
   van Vuuren, D.
   Leemans, R.
   Opsteegh, T.
TI CO2 and albedo climate impacts of extratropical carbon and
   biomass plantations
SO GLOBAL BIOGEOCHEMICAL CYCLES
LA English
DT Article
ID LAND-COVER CHANGES; INTERMEDIATE-COMPLEXITY; NORTHERN-HEMISPHERE;
   DECADAL VARIABILITY; SURFACE ALBEDO; MODEL; SYSTEM; SENSITIVITY;
   VEGETATION; FOREST
AB We explored the climate impacts for two land-use change scenarios, aimed at mitigating the buildup of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. Using the integrated assessment model IMAGE 2.2, we found that the large-scale implementation in the extratropics of either carbon-sequestration or modern-biomass plantations decreases the CO2 concentration with 70-80 ppmv by the year 2100 compared to a nonmitigation baseline. In a coupled land/atmosphere/ocean/sea-ice model this moderates global warming over the 21st century by 10%. However, the carbon-sequestration option raises the absorption of solar radiation due to a lower albedo compared to the scenario involving modern-biomass plantations (for biofuels production). The albedo-induced difference in global mean temperature is as large as the mitigation by CO2 changes in the two scenarios compared to the baseline. Further, an atmospheric circulation change in the carbon-plantation scenario weakens the supply of moisture from the oceans to North Africa and central Eurasia. In our model this decreases annual mean precipitation over North Africa by up to 10% and further increases summer temperatures over Eurasia. These findings lead us to conclude that other climate impacts than just CO2 changes have to be taken into account when discussing climate-change mitigation options that involve land-use changes.
C1 Netherlands Environm Assessment Agcy MNP RIVM, NL-3720 AH Bilthoven, Netherlands.
   Univ Wageningen & Res Ctr, Environm Syst Anal Grp, NL-6700 DD Wageningen, Netherlands.
   Univ Utrecht, Fac Phys & Astron, Inst Marine & Atmospher Res Utrecht, NL-3508 TA Utrecht, Netherlands.
C3 Netherlands National Institute for Public Health & the Environment;
   Wageningen University & Research; Utrecht University
RP Schaeffer, M (corresponding author), Univ Wageningen & Res Ctr, Environm Syst Anal Grp, Bode 145,POB 8080, NL-6700 DD Wageningen, Netherlands.
EM Michael.Schaeffer@wur.nl; bas.eickhout@mnp.nl; m.hoogwijk@ecofys.nl;
   bart.strengers@mnp.nl; detlef.van.vuuren@mnp.nl; rik.leemans@wur.nl;
   j.d.opsteegh@phys.uu.nl
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NR 58
TC 40
Z9 44
U1 0
U2 16
PU AMER GEOPHYSICAL UNION
PI WASHINGTON
PA 2000 FLORIDA AVE NW, WASHINGTON, DC 20009 USA
SN 0886-6236
EI 1944-9224
J9 GLOBAL BIOGEOCHEM CY
JI Glob. Biogeochem. Cycle
PD JUN 22
PY 2006
VL 20
IS 2
AR GB2020
DI 10.1029/2005GB002581
PG 15
WC Environmental Sciences; Geosciences, Multidisciplinary; Meteorology &
   Atmospheric Sciences
WE Science Citation Index Expanded (SCI-EXPANDED)
SC Environmental Sciences & Ecology; Geology; Meteorology & Atmospheric
   Sciences
GA 057LV
UT WOS:000238598200001
OA Green Submitted, Bronze
DA 2026-06-14
ER

PT J
AU van Vuuren, DP
   Eickhout, B
   Lucas, PL
   den Elzen, MGJ
AF van Vuuren, D. P.
   Eickhout, B.
   Lucas, P. L.
   den Elzen, M. G. J.
TI Long-term multi-gas scenarios to stabilise radiative forcing - Exploring
   costs and benefits within an integrated assessment framework
SO ENERGY JOURNAL
LA English
DT Article
ID GLOBAL WARMING POTENTIALS; EMISSIONS; REGIMES
AB This paper presents a set of multi-gas mitigation scenarios that aim for stabilisation of greenhouse gas radiative forcing in 2150 at levels from 3.7 to 5.3 W/m(2). At the moment, non-CO2 gasses (methane, nitrous oxide, PFCs, HFCs and SF6) contribute to about a quarter of the global emissions. The analysis shows that including these non-CO2 gases in mitigation analysis is crucial in formulating a cost-effective response. For stabilisation at 4.5 W/m(2), a multi-gas approach leads to 40% lower costs than an approach that would focus at CO2- only. Within the assumptions used in this study, the non-CO2 gasses contribution to total reduction is very large under less stringent targets (up to 60%), but declines under stringent targets. While stabilising at 3.7 W/m(2) obviously leads to larger environmental benefits than the 4.5 W/m(2) case (temperature increase in 2100 are 1.9 and 2.3 degrees C, respectively), the costs of the lower target are higher (0.80% and 0.34% of GDP in 2100, respectively). Improving knowledge on how future reduction potential for non-CO2 gasses could develop is shown to be a crucial research question.
C1 Netherlands Environm Assessment Agcy, MNP, RIVM, NL-3720 BA Bilthoven, Netherlands.
C3 Netherlands National Institute for Public Health & the Environment
RP van Vuuren, DP (corresponding author), Netherlands Environm Assessment Agcy, MNP, RIVM, POB 303, NL-3720 BA Bilthoven, Netherlands.
EM Detlef.van.Vuuren@mnp.nl
RI van Vuuren, Detlef/A-4764-2009; den Elzen, Michel/M-2779-2016
OI van Vuuren, Detlef/0000-0003-0398-2831; Lucas, Paul/0000-0003-0292-7830;
   den Elzen, Michel/0000-0002-5128-8150
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NR 46
TC 90
Z9 104
U1 0
U2 33
PU INT ASSOC ENERGY ECONOMICS
PI CLEVELAND
PA 28790 CHAGRIN BLVD, STE 210, CLEVELAND, OH 44122 USA
SN 0195-6574
EI 1944-9089
J9 ENERG J
JI Energy J.
PY 2006
SI 3
BP 201
EP 233
PG 33
WC Economics; Energy & Fuels; Environmental Studies
WE Science Citation Index Expanded (SCI-EXPANDED); Social Science Citation Index (SSCI)
SC Business & Economics; Energy & Fuels; Environmental Sciences & Ecology
GA 153WM
UT WOS:000245467100011
DA 2026-06-14
ER

PT J
AU Fischer, G
   Shah, M
   Tubiello, FN
   van Velhuizen, H
AF Fischer, G
   Shah, M
   Tubiello, FN
   van Velhuizen, H
TI Socio-economic and climate change impacts on agriculture: an integrated
   assessment, 1990-2080
SO PHILOSOPHICAL TRANSACTIONS OF THE ROYAL SOCIETY B-BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES
LA English
DT Article
DE agriculture; crop production; climate change; food security; sub-Saharan
   Africa; risk of hunger
ID COUPLED MODEL; ELEVATED CO2; LAND-USE; CROP; US; SIMULATION; RESPONSES
AB A comprehensive assessment of the impacts of climate change on agro-ecosystems over this century is developed, up to 2080 and at a global level, albeit with significant regional detail. To this end an integrated ecological-economic modelling framework is employed, encompassing climate scenarios, agro-ecological zoning information, socio-economic drivers, as well as world food trade dynamics. Specifically, global simulations are performed using the FAO/IIASA agro-ecological zone model, in conjunction with IIASAs global food system model, using climate variables from five different general circulation models, under four different socio-economic scenarios from the intergovernmental panel on climate change. First, impacts of different scenarios of climate change on bio-physical soil and crop growth determinants of yield are evaluated on a 5' X 5' latitude/longitude global grid; second, the extent of potential agricultural land and related potential crop production is computed. The detailed bio-physical results are then fed into an economic analysis, to assess how climate impacts may interact with alternative development pathways, and key trends expected over this century for food demand and production, and trade, as well as key composite indices such as risk of hunger and malnutrition, are computed. This modelling approach connects the relevant bio-physical and socioeconomic variables within a unified and coherent framework to produce a global assessment of food production and security under climate change. The results from the study suggest that critical impact asymmetries due to both climate and socio-economic structures may deepen current production and consumption gaps between developed and developing world; it is suggested that adaptation of agricultural techniques will be central to limit potential damages under climate change.
C1 Int Inst Appl Syst Anal, A-2361 Laxenburg, Austria.
   Columbia Univ, Goddard Inst Space Studies, New York, NY 10027 USA.
C3 International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA); National
   Aeronautics & Space Administration (NASA); NASA Goddard Space Flight
   Center; Goddard Institute for Space Studies; Columbia University
RP Fischer, G (corresponding author), Int Inst Appl Syst Anal, A-2361 Laxenburg, Austria.
EM fisher@iiasa.ac.at
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NR 47
TC 636
Z9 785
U1 5
U2 356
PU ROYAL SOC
PI LONDON
PA 6-9 CARLTON HOUSE TERRACE, LONDON SW1Y 5AG, ENGLAND
SN 0962-8436
EI 1471-2970
J9 PHILOS T R SOC B
JI Philos. Trans. R. Soc. B-Biol. Sci.
PD NOV 29
PY 2005
VL 360
IS 1463
BP 2067
EP 2083
DI 10.1098/rstb.2005.1744
PG 17
WC Biology
WE Science Citation Index Expanded (SCI-EXPANDED)
SC Life Sciences & Biomedicine - Other Topics
GA 986CS
UT WOS:000233427400008
PM 16433094
OA Green Submitted
DA 2026-06-14
ER

PT J
AU Bouwman, AF
   Van der Hoek, KW
   Eickhout, B
   Soenario, I
AF Bouwman, AF
   Van der Hoek, KW
   Eickhout, B
   Soenario, I
TI Exploring changes in world ruminant production systems
SO AGRICULTURAL SYSTEMS
LA English
DT Article
DE livestock production; ruminant; feed; grassland
AB In the past 30 years world production of ruminant meat and milk has increased by about 40%, while the global area of grassland has increased by only 4%. This is because most of the increase in ruminant meat and milk production has been achieved by increasing the production in mixed and landless production systems and much less so in pastoral systems. Pastoral systems depend almost exclusively on grazing, while mixed and landless systems rely on a mix of concentrates (food crops) and roughage, consisting of grass, fodder crops, crop residues, and other sources of feedstuffs. A model was developed to describe these two aggregated production systems for different world regions, each having typical production characteristics, such as milk production per animal for dairy cattle, and off-take rates and carcass weights for non-dairy cattle, sheep and goats. The energy needed by the animals for the production of meat and milk is calculated on the basis of requirements for maintenance, grazing and labour, pregnancy, and lactation. We implemented the FAO Agriculture Towards 2030 projection for crop and livestock production and assumed that the past trend in the area of grassland will continue in the coming three decades. This assumption implies a rapid intensification of grassland management with a 33% increase in global grass consumption, which will only be possible with increasing fertilizer inputs, use of grass-clover mixtures and improved grassland management. (c) 2004 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
C1 Natl Inst Publ Hlth & Environm, Netherlands Environm Assessment Agcy, NL-3720 BA Bilthoven, Netherlands.
   Natl Inst Publ Hlth & Environm, Lab Environm Monitoring, NL-3720 BA Bilthoven, Netherlands.
C3 Netherlands National Institute for Public Health & the Environment;
   Netherlands National Institute for Public Health & the Environment
RP Bouwman, AF (corresponding author), Natl Inst Publ Hlth & Environm, Netherlands Environm Assessment Agcy, POB 1, NL-3720 BA Bilthoven, Netherlands.
EM lex.bouwman@rivm.nl
RI Bouwman, Lex/B-7053-2012
OI Bouwman, Lex/0000-0002-2045-1859
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NR 29
TC 258
Z9 285
U1 1
U2 102
PU ELSEVIER SCI LTD
PI London
PA 125 London Wall, London, ENGLAND
SN 0308-521X
EI 1873-2267
J9 AGR SYST
JI Agric. Syst.
PD MAY
PY 2005
VL 84
IS 2
BP 121
EP 153
DI 10.1016/j.agsy.2004.05.006
PG 33
WC Agriculture, Multidisciplinary
WE Science Citation Index Expanded (SCI-EXPANDED)
SC Agriculture
GA 915MU
UT WOS:000228309100001
DA 2026-06-14
ER

PT J
AU Alcamo, J
   Kreileman, GJJ
   Bollen, JC
   vandenBorn, GJ
   Gerlagh, R
   Krol, MS
   Toet, AMC
   deVries, HJM
AF Alcamo, J
   Kreileman, GJJ
   Bollen, JC
   vandenBorn, GJ
   Gerlagh, R
   Krol, MS
   Toet, AMC
   deVries, HJM
TI Baseline scenarios of global environmental change
SO GLOBAL ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE-HUMAN AND POLICY DIMENSIONS
LA English
DT Article
ID CLIMATE SCENARIOS; MODEL; ATMOSPHERE; EMISSIONS
AB This paper presents three baseline scenarios of no policy action computed by the IMAGE 2 model, These scenarios cover a wide range of coupled global change indicators, including: energy demand and consumption; food demand, consumption, and production; changes in land cover including changes in extent of agricultural land and forest; emissions of greenhouse gases and ozone precursors; and climate change and its impacts on sea level rise, crop productivity and natural vegetation. Scenario information is available for the entire world with regional and grid scale detail, and covers from 1970 to 2100. The scenarios indicate that the coming decades could be a period of relatively rapid global environmental change as compared to the period before and after, The natural vegetation in industrialized regions could be threatened by climate change, but abandonment of agricultural lands could also make new lands available for reforestation and revegetation. The is true far most of Asia and Here the impacts of climate change on vegetation may not be as significant as in temperate climates, but the demand for food will lead to a significant expansion of agricultural lands at the expense of remaining forests and other natural areas. Copyright (C) 1996 Elsevier Science Ltd
C1 FREE UNIV AMSTERDAM,AMSTERDAM,NETHERLANDS.
   NATL INST PUBL HLTH & ENVIRONM,NL-3720 BA BILTHOVEN,NETHERLANDS.
C3 Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam; Netherlands National Institute for Public
   Health & the Environment
RP Alcamo, J (corresponding author), UNIV KASSEL,D-3500 KASSEL,GERMANY.
RI ; Krol, Maarten S/M-5997-2013
OI Gerlagh, Reyer/0000-0001-9781-9212; Krol, Maarten S/0000-0002-6755-3692
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NR 19
TC 53
Z9 63
U1 0
U2 11
PU ELSEVIER SCI LTD
PI OXFORD
PA THE BOULEVARD, LANGFORD LANE, KIDLINGTON, OXFORD, OXON, ENGLAND OX5 1GB
SN 0959-3780
J9 GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG
JI Glob. Environ. Change-Human Policy Dimens.
PD SEP
PY 1996
VL 6
IS 4
BP 261
EP 303
DI 10.1016/S0959-3780(96)00026-X
PG 43
WC Environmental Sciences; Environmental Studies; Geography
WE Science Citation Index Expanded (SCI-EXPANDED)
SC Environmental Sciences & Ecology; Geography
GA WC911
UT WOS:A1996WC91100002
DA 2026-06-14
ER

PT J
AU GOLDEWIJK, KK
   VANMINNEN, JG
   KREILEMAN, GJJ
   VLOEDBELD, M
   LEEMANS, R
AF GOLDEWIJK, KK
   VANMINNEN, JG
   KREILEMAN, GJJ
   VLOEDBELD, M
   LEEMANS, R
TI SIMULATING THE CARBON FLUX BETWEEN THE TERRESTRIAL ENVIRONMENT AND THE
   ATMOSPHERE
SO WATER AIR AND SOIL POLLUTION
LA English
DT Article
DE CLIMATE CHANGE; BIOGEOPHYSICAL FEEDBACKS; GEOGRAPHICALLY EXPLICIT GLOBAL
   C-CYCLE MODEL; CO2 FERTILIZATION; SOIL RESPIRATION; LAND COVER CHANGE
ID WATER-USE EFFICIENCY; FEEDBACK PROCESSES; CO2 CONCENTRATIONS; MANAGED
   FORESTS; GLOBAL CHANGE; ELEVATED CO2; LAND-USE; STORAGE; MODEL;
   BIOSPHERE
AB A Terrestrial C Cycle model that is incorporated in the Integrated Model to Assess the Greenhouse Effect (IMAGE 2.0) is described. The model is a geographically explicit implementation of a model that simulates the major C fluxes in different compartments of the terrestrial biosphere and between the biosphere and the atmosphere. Climatic parameters, land cover and atmospheric C concentrations determine the result of the dynamic C simulations. The impact of changing land cover patterns, caused by anthropogenic activities (shifting agriculture, de- and afforestation) and climatic change are modeled implicitly. Feedback processes such as CO2 fertilization and temperature effects on photosynthesis, respiration and decomposition are modeled explicitly. The major innovation of this approach is that the consequences of climate change are taken into account instantly and that their results can be quantified on a global medium-resolution grid. The objectives of this paper are to describe the C cycle model in detail, present the linkages with other parts of the IMAGE 2.0 framework, and give an array of different simulations to validate and test the robustness of this modeling approach. The computed global net primary production (NPP) for the terrestrial biosphere in 1990 was 60.6 Gt C a-1, with a global net ecosystem production (NEP) of 2.4 Gt C a-1. The simulated C flux as result from land cover changes was 1.1 Gt C a-1, so that the terrestrial biosphere in 1990 acted as a C sink of 1.3 Gt C a-1. Global phytomass amounted 567.5 Gt C and the dead biomass pool was 1517.7 Gt C. IMAGE 2.0 simulated for the period 1970 - 2050 a global average temperature increase of 1.6-degrees-C and a global average precipitation increase of 0.1 mm/day. The CO2 concentration in 2050 was 522.2 ppm. The computed NPP for the year 2050 is 82.5 Gt C a-1, with a NEP of 8.1 Gt C a-1. Projected land cover changes result in a C flux of 0.9 Gt C a-1, so that the terrestrial biosphere will be a strong sink of 7.2 Gt C a-1. The amount of phytomass hardly changed (600.7 Gt C) but the distribution over the different regions had. Dead biomass increased significantly to 1667.2 Gt C.
RP GOLDEWIJK, KK (corresponding author), NATL INST PUBL HLTH & ENVIRONM PROTECT,MODELING GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE PROGRAM,POB 1,3720 BA BILTHOVEN,NETHERLANDS.
RI Leemans, Rik/A-1548-2009; Klein Goldewijk, Kees/L-5567-2013
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NR 82
TC 42
Z9 45
U1 0
U2 21
PU KLUWER ACADEMIC PUBL
PI DORDRECHT
PA SPUIBOULEVARD 50, PO BOX 17, 3300 AA DORDRECHT, NETHERLANDS
SN 0049-6979
J9 WATER AIR SOIL POLL
JI Water Air Soil Pollut.
PD JUL
PY 1994
VL 76
IS 1-2
BP 199
EP 230
DI 10.1007/BF00478340
PG 32
WC Environmental Sciences; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences; Water
   Resources
WE Science Citation Index Expanded (SCI-EXPANDED)
SC Environmental Sciences & Ecology; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences;
   Water Resources
GA NT309
UT WOS:A1994NT30900008
DA 2026-06-14
ER

EF