FN Clarivate Analytics Web of Science
VR 1.0
PT J
AU Wessel, J
   Iyer, G
   Wild, T
   Ou, Y
   McJeon, H
   Lamontagne, J
AF Wessel, Jacob
   Iyer, Gokul
   Wild, Thomas
   Ou, Yang
   McJeon, Haewon
   Lamontagne, Jonathan
TI Large Ensemble Exploration of Global Energy Transitions Under National
   Emissions Pledges
SO EARTHS FUTURE
LA English
DT Article
DE multi-sector modeling; energy transition; scenario discovery; nationally
   determined contributions; Paris Agreement; uncertainty analysis
ID CLIMATE-CHANGE MITIGATION; IMPROVING SCENARIO DISCOVERY; INTEGRATED
   ASSESSMENT MODELS; ROBUST DECISION-MAKING; DEEP UNCERTAINTY; MULTIMODEL;
   IMPACTS; OPTIMIZATION; SENSITIVITY; FRAMEWORK
AB Global climate goals require a transition to a deeply decarbonized energy system. Meeting the objectives of the Paris Agreement through countries' nationally determined contributions and long-term strategies represents a complex problem with consequences across multiple systems shrouded by deep uncertainty. Robust, large-ensemble methods and analyses mapping a wide range of possible future states of the world are needed to help policymakers design effective strategies to meet emissions reduction goals. This study contributes a scenario discovery analysis applied to a large ensemble of 5,760 model realizations generated using the Global Change Analysis Model. Eleven energy-related uncertainties are systematically varied, representing national mitigation pledges, institutional factors, and techno-economic parameters, among others. The resulting ensemble maps how uncertainties impact common energy system metrics used to characterize national and global pathways toward deep decarbonization. Results show globally consistent but regionally variable energy transitions as measured by multiple metrics, including electricity costs and stranded assets. Larger economies and developing regions experience more severe economic outcomes across a broad sampling of uncertainty. The scale of CO2 removal globally determines how much the energy system can continue to emit, but the relative role of different CO2 removal options in meeting decarbonization goals varies across regions. Previous studies characterizing uncertainty have typically focused on a few scenarios, and other large-ensemble work has not (to our knowledge) combined this framework with national emissions pledges or institutional factors. Our results underscore the value of large-ensemble scenario discovery for decision support as countries begin to design strategies to meet their goals.
   Most countries have pledged to significantly reduce greenhouse gas emissions over the next few decades. These emissions primarily come from burning fossil fuels for electricity, heat, energy for industrial processes, and transportation fuel. Converting to cleaner forms of energy requires transforming the energy system. However, decision makers must consider the countless, unpredictable ways the future could unfold. Modelers address this "deep uncertainty" by running computer simulations many times and computing how impactful various inputs are on the outcome. We explore different ways countries may meet emissions reduction goals and how impacts vary regionally, considering 11 sources of uncertainty with 5,760 simulations. We find larger economies and developing regions experience the most severe economic outcomes consistently across our wide range of inputs. Further, removing carbon dioxide from the air through engineered and natural solutions allows some flexibility to continue emitting during the transition, but the role of different options varies regionally, and is subject to future costs and the way emissions are priced. Previous work has typically focused on representative scenarios, rather than a "large ensemble," and has not combined this framework with modeling national emissions pledges. These findings are helpful for decisionmakers as countries design strategies to meet their goals.
   Energy transition costs can, by multiple metrics, unevenly impact larger economies, and developing regions under a wide range of futures Regional investment risk has global implications for mitigation pathways, robust to broad uncertainties and with strong relative impacts The relative role of different carbon dioxide removal options in meeting decarbonization goals varies across regions and scenario pathways
C1 [Wessel, Jacob; Lamontagne, Jonathan] Tufts Univ, Dept Civil & Environm Engn, Medford, MA 02155 USA.
   [Iyer, Gokul; Wild, Thomas] Pacific Northwest Natl Lab, Joint Global Change Res Inst, College Pk, MD USA.
   [Iyer, Gokul; Wild, Thomas] Univ Maryland, Ctr Global Sustainabil, Sch Publ Policy, College Pk, MD USA.
   [Wild, Thomas] Univ Maryland, Dept Civil & Environm Engn, College Pk, MD USA.
   [Ou, Yang] Peking Univ, Coll Environm Sci & Engn, Beijing, Peoples R China.
   [Ou, Yang] Peking Univ, Inst Carbon Neutral, Beijing, Peoples R China.
   [McJeon, Haewon] Korea Adv Inst Sci & Technol, Grad Sch Green Growth & Sustainabil, Daejeon, South Korea.
C3 Tufts University; United States Department of Energy (DOE); Pacific
   Northwest National Laboratory; University System of Maryland; University
   of Maryland College Park; University System of Maryland; University of
   Maryland College Park; Peking University; Peking University; Korea
   Advanced Institute of Science & Technology (KAIST)
RP Wessel, J (corresponding author), Tufts Univ, Dept Civil & Environm Engn, Medford, MA 02155 USA.
EM jwesse03@tufts.edu
RI Iyer, Gokul/JKI-1504-2023; Wessel, Jacob/NWH-7853-2025; McJeon,
   Haewon/OVZ-8721-2025; Ou, Yang/GMX-3718-2022
OI Wessel, Jacob/0000-0001-9238-5179; McJeon, Haewon/0000-0003-0348-5704;
   Ou, Yang/0000-0002-1889-6218; Wild, Thomas/0000-0002-6045-7729;
   Lamontagne, Jonathan/0000-0003-3976-1678
FU National Science Foundation; KAIST [G04240056];  [1855982]
FX This material is based upon work supported by the National Science
   Foundation under Grant 1855982. H.M. was supported by KAIST research
   Grant G04240056. The authors acknowledge the Tufts University High
   Performance Compute Cluster () which was utilized for the research
   reported in this paper.
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NR 112
TC 2
Z9 3
U1 3
U2 13
PU AMER GEOPHYSICAL UNION
PI WASHINGTON
PA 2000 FLORIDA AVE NW, WASHINGTON, DC 20009 USA
EI 2328-4277
J9 EARTHS FUTURE
JI Earth Future
PD OCT 22
PY 2024
VL 12
IS 10
AR e2024EF004754
DI 10.1029/2024EF004754
PG 21
WC Environmental Sciences; Geosciences, Multidisciplinary; Meteorology &
   Atmospheric Sciences
WE Science Citation Index Expanded (SCI-EXPANDED)
SC Environmental Sciences & Ecology; Geology; Meteorology & Atmospheric
   Sciences
GA J6E7O
UT WOS:001337983800001
OA Green Submitted, gold
DA 2026-06-25
ER

PT J
AU Speizer, S
   Fuhrman, J
   Lopez, LA
   George, M
   Kyle, P
   Monteith, S
   McJeon, H
AF Speizer, Simone
   Fuhrman, Jay
   Lopez, Laura Aldrete
   George, Mel
   Kyle, Page
   Monteith, Seth
   McJeon, Haewon
TI Integrated assessment modeling of a zero-emissions global transportation
   sector
SO NATURE COMMUNICATIONS
LA English
DT Article
ID GREENHOUSE-GAS EMISSIONS; ENERGY SCENARIOS; MITIGATION; FUELS;
   DECARBONIZATION; CHINA; LIGHT; TECHNOLOGIES; FREIGHT; FUTURES
AB Currently responsible for over one fifth of carbon emissions worldwide, the transportation sector will need to undergo a substantial technological transition to ensure compatibility with global climate goals. Few studies have modeled strategies to achieve zero emissions across all transportation modes, including aviation and shipping, alongside an integrated analysis of feedbacks on other sectors and environmental systems. Here, we use a global integrated assessment model to evaluate deep decarbonization scenarios for the transportation sector consistent with maintaining end-of-century warming below 1.5 degrees C, considering varied timelines for fossil fuel phase-out and implementation of advanced alternative technologies. We highlight the leading low carbon technologies for each transportation mode, finding that electrification contributes most to decarbonization across the sector. Biofuels and hydrogen are particularly important for aviation and shipping. Our most ambitious scenario eliminates transportation emissions by mid-century, contributing substantially to achieving climate targets but requiring rapid technological shifts with integrated impacts on fuel demands and availability and upstream energy transitions.
   To eliminate transport emissions by 2050, low carbon fuels must rapidly replace fossil fuels. The authors model these technological transitions for each transport mode and evaluate economy-wide tradeoffs of varied levels of transport decarbonization.
C1 [Speizer, Simone; Fuhrman, Jay; Kyle, Page] Pacific Northwest Natl Lab, Joint Global Change Res Inst, College Pk, MD USA.
   [Lopez, Laura Aldrete; Monteith, Seth] ClimateWorks Fdn, San Francisco, CA USA.
   [George, Mel] Univ Maryland, Ctr Global Sustainabil, College Pk, MD USA.
   [McJeon, Haewon] Korea Adv Inst Sci & Technol, Grad Sch Green Growth & Sustainabil, Daejeon, South Korea.
C3 United States Department of Energy (DOE); Pacific Northwest National
   Laboratory; University System of Maryland; University of Maryland
   College Park; Korea Advanced Institute of Science & Technology (KAIST)
RP McJeon, H (corresponding author), Korea Adv Inst Sci & Technol, Grad Sch Green Growth & Sustainabil, Daejeon, South Korea.
EM hmcjeon@kaist.ac.kr
RI McJeon, Haewon/OVZ-8721-2025; George, Mel/JMB-0219-2023; Kyle,
   Page/AFP-3602-2022
OI McJeon, Haewon/0000-0003-0348-5704; Alete Lopez, Laura
   Monica/0009-0005-5172-2323; Fuhrman, Jay/0000-0003-1853-6850; Kyle,
   Page/0000-0002-1257-8358; Speizer, Simone/0000-0002-2397-8760
FU ClimateWorks Foundation; National Research Foundation of Korea
   [RS-2023-00219466]
FX This research was supported by the ClimateWorks Foundation. HM was also
   supported by the National Research Foundation of Korea (BP Grant:
   RS-2023-00219466).
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TC 80
Z9 85
U1 35
U2 166
PU NATURE PORTFOLIO
PI BERLIN
PA HEIDELBERGER PLATZ 3, BERLIN, 14197, GERMANY
EI 2041-1723
J9 NAT COMMUN
JI Nat. Commun.
PD MAY 24
PY 2024
VL 15
IS 1
AR 4439
DI 10.1038/s41467-024-48424-9
PG 15
WC Multidisciplinary Sciences
WE Science Citation Index Expanded (SCI-EXPANDED)
SC Science & Technology - Other Topics
GA SG0X2
UT WOS:001233196000010
PM 38789428
OA Green Submitted, gold
HC Y
HP N
DA 2026-06-25
ER



PT J
AU Calvin, K
   Patel, P
   Clarke, L
   Asrar, G
   Bond-Lamberty, B
   Cui, RY
   Di Vittorio, A
   Dorheim, K
   Edmonds, J
   Hartin, C
   Hejazi, M
   Horowitz, R
   Iyer, G
   Kyle, P
   Kim, S
   Link, R
   McJeon, H
   Smith, SJ
   Snyder, A
   Waldhoff, S
   Wise, M
AF Calvin, Katherine
   Patel, Pralit
   Clarke, Leon
   Asrar, Ghassem
   Bond-Lamberty, Ben
   Cui, Ryna Yiyun
   Di Vittorio, Alan
   Dorheim, Kalyn
   Edmonds, Jae
   Hartin, Corinne
   Hejazi, Mohamad
   Horowitz, Russell
   Iyer, Gokul
   Kyle, Page
   Kim, Sonny
   Link, Robert
   McJeon, Haewon
   Smith, Steven J.
   Snyder, Abigail
   Waldhoff, Stephanie
   Wise, Marshall
TI GCAM v5.1: representing the linkages between energy, water, land,
   climate, and economic systems
SO GEOSCIENTIFIC MODEL DEVELOPMENT
LA English
DT Article
ID SHARED SOCIOECONOMIC PATHWAYS; INTEGRATED ASSESSMENT; MODEL; FRAMEWORK;
   WORLD; PROJECTIONS; GENERATION; SCENARIOS; DEMANDS; SECTOR
AB This paper describes GCAM v5.1, an open source model that represents the linkages between energy, water, land, climate, and economic systems. GCAM is a market equilibrium model, is global in scope, and operates from 1990 to 2100 in 5-year time steps. It can be used to examine, for example, how changes in population, income, or technology cost might alter crop production, energy demand, or water withdrawals, or how changes in one region's demand for energy affect energy, water, and land in other regions. This paper describes the model, including its assumptions, inputs, and outputs. We then use 11 scenarios, varying the socioeconomic and climate policy assumptions, to illustrate the results from the model. The resulting scenarios demonstrate a wide range of potential future energy, water, and land uses. We compare the results from GCAM v5.1 to historical data and to future scenario simulations from earlier versions of GCAM and from other models. Finally, we provide information on how to obtain the model.
C1 [Calvin, Katherine; Patel, Pralit; Clarke, Leon; Asrar, Ghassem; Bond-Lamberty, Ben; Cui, Ryna Yiyun; Dorheim, Kalyn; Edmonds, Jae; Hartin, Corinne; Hejazi, Mohamad; Iyer, Gokul; Kyle, Page; Kim, Sonny; Link, Robert; McJeon, Haewon; Smith, Steven J.; Snyder, Abigail; Waldhoff, Stephanie; Wise, Marshall] Pacific Northwest Natl Labs, Joint Global Change Res Inst, College Pk, MD 20740 USA.
   [Di Vittorio, Alan] Lawrence Berkeley Natl Lab, Berkeley, CA USA.
   [Horowitz, Russell] Univ Calif Los Angeles, Los Angeles, CA USA.
C3 United States Department of Energy (DOE); Lawrence Berkeley National
   Laboratory; University of California System; University of California
   Los Angeles
RP Calvin, K (corresponding author), Pacific Northwest Natl Labs, Joint Global Change Res Inst, College Pk, MD 20740 USA.
EM katherine.calvin@pnnl.gov
RI Calvin, Katherine/ADF-2443-2022; Smith, Steven/F-4502-2010; McJeon,
   Haewon/OVZ-8721-2025; Bond-Lamberty, Benjamin/C-6058-2008; Di Vittorio,
   Alan/M-5325-2013; Kyle, Page/AFP-3602-2022; Iyer, Gokul/JKI-1504-2023;
   Asrar, Ghassem/AAK-9517-2020; Dorheim, Kalyn/AAB-4518-2020
OI Calvin, Katherine/0000-0003-2191-4189; Horowitz,
   Russell/0000-0002-0270-3127; Smith, Steven/0000-0003-3248-5607; Hejazi,
   Mohamad/0000-0003-4194-2208; McJeon, Haewon/0000-0003-0348-5704;
   Bond-Lamberty, Benjamin/0000-0001-9525-4633; Di Vittorio,
   Alan/0000-0002-8139-4640; Dorheim, Kalyn/0000-0001-8093-8397; Cui,
   Ryna/0000-0002-1186-8230
FU U.S. Department of Energy, Office of Science, as part of research in
   Multi-Sector Dynamics, Earth and Environmental System Modeling program
FX Major long-term support for GCAM development and support for the
   development of this paper comes from the U.S. Department of Energy,
   Office of Science, as part of research in Multi-Sector Dynamics, Earth
   and Environmental System Modeling program.
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TC 361
Z9 419
U1 11
U2 241
PU COPERNICUS GESELLSCHAFT MBH
PI GOTTINGEN
PA BAHNHOFSALLEE 1E, GOTTINGEN, 37081, GERMANY
SN 1991-959X
EI 1991-9603
J9 GEOSCI MODEL DEV
JI Geosci. Model Dev.
PD FEB 15
PY 2019
VL 12
IS 2
BP 677
EP 698
DI 10.5194/gmd-12-677-2019
PG 22
WC Geosciences, Multidisciplinary
WE Science Citation Index Expanded (SCI-EXPANDED); Social Science Citation Index (SSCI)
SC Geology
GA HL7BE
UT WOS:000458891100001
OA Green Submitted, gold
HC Y
HP N
DA 2026-06-25
ER




PT J
AU Kim, SH
   Hejazi, M
   Liu, L
   Calvin, K
   Clarke, L
   Edmonds, J
   Kyle, P
   Patel, P
   Wise, M
   Davies, E
AF Kim, Son H.
   Hejazi, Mohamad
   Liu, Lu
   Calvin, Katherine
   Clarke, Leon
   Edmonds, Jae
   Kyle, Page
   Patel, Pralit
   Wise, Marshall
   Davies, Evan
TI Balancing global water availability and use at basin scale in an
   integrated assessment model
SO CLIMATIC CHANGE
LA English
DT Article
ID SHARED SOCIOECONOMIC PATHWAYS; SCARCITY; PATTERNS
AB Water is essential for the world's food supply, for energy production, including bioenergy and hydroelectric power, and for power system cooling. Water is already scarce in many regions of the world and could present a critical constraint as society attempts simultaneously to mitigate climate forcing and adapt to climate change, and to provide for a larger and more prosperous human population. Numerous studies have pointed to growing pressures on the world's scarce fresh water resources from population and economic growth, and climate change. This study goes further. We use the Global Change Assessment Model to analyze interactions between population, economic growth, energy, land, and water resources simultaneously in a dynamically evolving system where competing claims on water resources from all claimants-energy, land, and economy-are reconciled with water resource availability-from renewable water, non-renewable groundwater and desalinated water sources-across 14 geopolitical regions, 151 agriculture-ecological zones, and 235 major river basins. We find that previous estimates of global water withdrawal projections are overestimated. Model simulations show that it is more economical in some basins to alter agricultural and energy activities rather than utilize non-renewable groundwater or desalinated water. This study highlights the importance of accounting for water as a binding factor in agriculture, energy and land use decisions in integrated assessment models and implications for global responses to water scarcity, particularly in the trade of agricultural commodities and land-use decisions.
C1 [Kim, Son H.; Hejazi, Mohamad; Liu, Lu; Calvin, Katherine; Clarke, Leon; Edmonds, Jae; Kyle, Page; Patel, Pralit; Wise, Marshall] Joint Global Res Inst, Pacific NW Natl Lab, 5825 Univ Res Court,Suite 3500, College Pk, MD 20740 USA.
   [Davies, Evan] Univ Alberta, Edmonton, AB T6G 1H9, Canada.
C3 United States Department of Energy (DOE); Pacific Northwest National
   Laboratory; University of Alberta
RP Kim, SH (corresponding author), Joint Global Res Inst, Pacific NW Natl Lab, 5825 Univ Res Court,Suite 3500, College Pk, MD 20740 USA.
EM skim@pnnl.gov
RI Calvin, Katherine/ADF-2443-2022; /AAA-2728-2020; Liu, Lu/J-4551-2015;
   Davies, Evan/A-3379-2008; Kyle, Page/AFP-3602-2022
OI Liu, Lu/0000-0002-4939-5432; Davies, Evan/0000-0003-0536-333X; Kyle,
   Page/0000-0002-1257-8358
FU Office of Science of the U.S. Department of Energy through the
   Integrated Assessment Research Program; DOE [DE-AC05-76RL01830]
FX This research was supported by the Office of Science of the U.S.
   Department of Energy through the Integrated Assessment Research Program.
   PNNL is operated for DOE by Battelle Memorial Institute under contract
   DE-AC05-76RL01830.
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NR 45
TC 83
Z9 99
U1 3
U2 60
PU SPRINGER
PI DORDRECHT
PA VAN GODEWIJCKSTRAAT 30, 3311 GZ DORDRECHT, NETHERLANDS
SN 0165-0009
EI 1573-1480
J9 CLIMATIC CHANGE
JI Clim. Change
PD MAY
PY 2016
VL 136
IS 2
BP 217
EP 231
DI 10.1007/s10584-016-1604-6
PG 15
WC Environmental Sciences; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
WE Science Citation Index Expanded (SCI-EXPANDED); Social Science Citation Index (SSCI)
SC Environmental Sciences & Ecology; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
GA DL5NG
UT WOS:000375683200005
OA Green Submitted
DA 2026-06-25
ER


EF