FN Clarivate Analytics Web of Science
VR 1.0
PT J
AU Yang, J
   Gao, L
   Guo, ZX
   Dong, YC
   Moallemi, EA
   Eker, S
   Liu, Q
   Chi, ZX
   Liu, FM
   Obersteiner, M
   Bryan, BA
AF Yang, Jing
   Gao, Lei
   Guo, Zhaoxia
   Dong, Yucheng
   Moallemi, Enayat A.
   Eker, Sibel
   Liu, Qi
   Chi, Zengxiao
   Liu, Fengming
   Obersteiner, Michael
   Bryan, Brett A.
TI Integrative Sustainable Development Goal policy portfolios to accelerate
   global progress towards a more sustainable future: a modelling study
SO LANCET PLANETARY HEALTH
LA English
DT Article
ID EMISSIONS
AB Background Progress towards the UN's 17 Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) is far off track. An effective and comprehensive assessment of policy impacts on the SDGs is crucial for accelerating global progress towards their achievement. We aimed to provide a comprehensive assessment of progress towards ten SDGs under future deep uncertainties and identify the most effective policy portfolios that best achieve these SDGs simultaneously. Methods In this study, we used an integrative modelling approach to capture important aspects of the complex behaviours of the global environmental and socioeconomic system. The study was conducted based on the functional enviro-economic linkages integrated nexus model, which is a system dynamics model that simulates interdependencies among global social, economic, and environmental components across 12 sectoral modules, including population, education, economy, poverty, energy, land use, water, food and diet change, fertiliser use, climate, carbon cycle, and biodiversity. The model was constructed with historical data from 1950 to 2021, sourced primarily from official international organisations such as the Food and Agriculture Organization of the UN, the International Energy Agency, the World Bank, the UN Development Programme, and the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. We used 32 SDG assessment indicators to quantify the impacts of 6480 policy portfolios from seven policy clusters interactively on ten SDGs up until 2050. We then used a multiobjective sorting and ranking method to identify robust policy portfolios that most effectively accelerate progress towards the ten SDGs simultaneously across five future socioeconomic pathways. Findings Although single-sector policies can boost progress towards the SDGs, multisectoral policy portfolios consisting of complementary policies from different sectors are required to achieve societal, economic, and environmental goals, and to capitalise on synergies and minimise undesirable trade-offs amongst SDGs. The policy portfolios play a more important role than more general socioeconomic development pathways in accelerating progress towards the SDGs. Two robust policy portfolios composed of seven policies, including ambitious education, energy supply decarbonisation, crop yield increase, sustainable water use, high nitrogen use efficiency, healthy and sustainable dietary change, and climate change mitigation with careful consideration of ecosystem impacts, were the most effective for global sustainable transformations regardless of future uncertainties, effecting up to a 19.6% to 29.5% improvement in overall progress towards the ten SDGs by 2050 compared with a reference policy portfolio without additional policies taken. Interpretation Greater progress towards multiple SDGs can be made through more ambitious policies and their more integrated implementation. Our robust policy portfolios provide general transformation directions for the international community to take coordinated and coherent actions to accelerate progress towards the SDGs. Funding National Natural Science Foundation of China, China Postdoctoral Science Foundation, and China Scholarship Council. Copyright (c) 2025 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an open access article under the CC BY-NC-ND license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/).
C1 [Yang, Jing] Sichuan Univ, West China Sch Publ Hlth, Chengdu, Peoples R China.
   [Yang, Jing; Eker, Sibel; Obersteiner, Michael] Int Inst Appl Syst Anal, Laxenburg, Austria.
   [Gao, Lei] Commonwealth Sci & Ind Res Org, Waite Campus, Adelaide, SA, Australia.
   [Guo, Zhaoxia; Dong, Yucheng; Liu, Qi] Sichuan Univ, Business Sch, Chengdu 610065, Peoples R China.
   [Dong, Yucheng] Xiangjiang Lab, Changsha 410205, Peoples R China.
   [Dong, Yucheng] Hunan Univ Technol & Business, Sch Digital Media Engn & Humanities, Changsha, Peoples R China.
   [Moallemi, Enayat A.] Commonwealth Sci & Ind Res Org, Melbourne, Vic, Australia.
   [Chi, Zengxiao] Shandong Jiaotong Univ, Sch Informat Sci & Elect Engn, Jinan, Peoples R China.
   [Chi, Zengxiao; Liu, Fengming] Shandong Normal Univ, Business Sch, Jinan, Peoples R China.
   [Obersteiner, Michael] Univ Oxford, Environm Change Inst, Oxford, England.
   [Bryan, Brett A.] Deakin Univ, Sch Life & Environm Sci, Melbourne, Vic, Australia.
C3 Sichuan University; International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis
   (IIASA); Commonwealth Scientific & Industrial Research Organisation
   (CSIRO); Sichuan University; Hunan University of Technology & Business;
   Commonwealth Scientific & Industrial Research Organisation (CSIRO);
   Shandong Jiaotong University; Shandong Normal University; University of
   Oxford; Deakin University
RP Guo, ZX; Dong, YC (corresponding author), Sichuan Univ, Business Sch, Chengdu 610065, Peoples R China.; Dong, YC (corresponding author), Xiangjiang Lab, Changsha 410205, Peoples R China.
EM zx.guo@alumni.polyu.edu.hk; ycdong@scu.edu.cn
RI Gao, Lei/F-9698-2010; Eker, Sibel/HHS-4681-2022; Dong,
   Yucheng/J-1668-2017; Bryan, Brett/F-8949-2010; Moallemi,
   Enayat/D-5758-2015; Obersteiner, Michael/ADG-8592-2022
OI Gao, Lei/0000-0003-4272-9417; Dong, Yucheng/0000-0002-0028-6796; Liu,
   Qi/0000-0002-3000-7559; 
FU National Natural Science Foundation of China [72171159, 72088101,
   72404200]; China Postdoctoral Science Foundation [2025M770790,
   GZC20241170]; China Scholarship Council [202106240118]
FX Acknowledgments This research was funded by the National Natural
   Science Foundation of China (72171159, 72088101, and 72404200) , the
   China Postdoctoral Science Foundation (2025M770790 and GZC20241170) ,
   and the China Scholarship Council (202106240118) .
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NR 43
TC 4
Z9 4
U1 10
U2 10
PU ELSEVIER SCI LTD
PI London
PA 125 London Wall, London, ENGLAND
EI 2542-5196
J9 LANCET PLANET HEALTH
JI Lancet Planet. Health
PD DEC
PY 2025
VL 9
IS 12
AR 101318
DI 10.1016/j.lanplh.2025.101318
EA DEC 2025
PG 13
WC Environmental Sciences; Public, Environmental & Occupational Health
WE Science Citation Index Expanded (SCI-EXPANDED); Social Science Citation Index (SSCI)
SC Environmental Sciences & Ecology; Public, Environmental & Occupational
   Health
GA AX2EE
UT WOS:001658906700001
PM 41205618
OA Green Submitted, gold
DA 2026-06-25
ER

PT J
AU Ruan, WJ
   Guo, ZX
   Yang, J
   Gao, L
   Dong, YC
   Liu, Q
AF Ruan, Wenjie
   Guo, Zhaoxia
   Yang, Jing
   Gao, Lei
   Dong, Yucheng
   Liu, Qi
TI Assessing the progress toward achieving energy- and climate-related
   sustainable development goals under four global energy transition
   outlooks
SO SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT
LA English
DT Article
DE climate change; energy transition outlook; progress measurement; system
   dynamics
ID RENEWABLE ENERGY; SCENARIO; IMPACTS; MITIGATION; POVERTY; TECHNOLOGY;
   PATHWAYS; BARRIERS; SYSTEM; SECTOR
AB Climate change is one of the greatest challenges in achieving the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), underscoring the critical need for energy transitions to mitigate the climate crisis. The achievement of two energy- and climate-focused SDGs-SDG 7 (affordable and clean energy) and SDG 13 (climate action)-remains uncertain under potential future global energy transition outlooks. This study evaluates the progress toward achieving SDGs 7 and 13 by 2050 under four representative energy transition outlooks through 14 performance indicators derived from a global system dynamics model. Our results reveal a progressive trend in achieving SDGs 7 and 13 under these energy transition outlooks. The overall progress scores toward these two SDGs are estimated as 16.23% in 2030 and 20.06% in 2050 under the most conservative outlook and 65.35% in 2030 and 88.24% in 2050 under the most radical outlook. Although energy transitions contribute to achieving SDGs 7 and 13, our analysis indicates that the world is far off-track in achieving these SDGs by relying solely on the implementation of energy transition policies. We further suggest promising measures from both the energy sector and other vital sectors to facilitate progress toward achieving the two SDGs.
C1 [Ruan, Wenjie; Guo, Zhaoxia; Yang, Jing; Dong, Yucheng; Liu, Qi] Sichuan Univ, Business Sch, Chengdu, Peoples R China.
   [Gao, Lei] CSIRO, Land & Water Div, Adelaide, SA, Australia.
   [Liu, Qi] Sichuan Univ, Business Sch, Chengdu 610065, Peoples R China.
C3 Sichuan University; Commonwealth Scientific & Industrial Research
   Organisation (CSIRO); CSIRO Land & Water; Sichuan University
RP Liu, Q (corresponding author), Sichuan Univ, Business Sch, Chengdu 610065, Peoples R China.
EM liuqi_67@stu.scu.edu.cn
RI Dong, Yucheng/J-1668-2017; Gao, Lei/F-9698-2010
OI Dong, Yucheng/0000-0002-0028-6796; Liu, Qi/0000-0002-3000-7559; Gao,
   Lei/0000-0003-4272-9417; Yang, Jing/0009-0007-1690-0651
FU General Program of the National Natural Science Foundation of China;
   Sichuan Social Science Planning Project [SC22B115];  [72171159]
FX This research was funded by the General Program of the National Natural
   Science Foundation of China (Grant No., 72171159), and Sichuan Social
   Science Planning Project (Grant No., SC22B115).
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NR 86
TC 18
Z9 19
U1 13
U2 64
PU WILEY
PI HOBOKEN
PA 111 RIVER ST, HOBOKEN 07030-5774, NJ USA
SN 0968-0802
EI 1099-1719
J9 SUSTAIN DEV
JI Sustain. Dev.
PD AUG
PY 2024
VL 32
IS 4
BP 3695
EP 3707
DI 10.1002/sd.2873
EA DEC 2023
PG 13
WC Development Studies; Green & Sustainable Science & Technology; Regional
   & Urban Planning
WE Social Science Citation Index (SSCI)
SC Development Studies; Science & Technology - Other Topics; Public
   Administration
GA A5Y8Z
UT WOS:001129587600001
DA 2026-06-25
ER

PT J
AU Yang, J
   Gao, L
   Liu, Q
   Guo, ZX
AF Yang, Jing
   Gao, Lei
   Liu, Qi
   Guo, Zhaoxia
TI Assessing environmental impacts of response strategies for sustainable
   food system transformation
SO SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT
LA English
DT Article
DE environmental impacts; integrated assessment; response strategies; SDGs;
   sustainable food system; system dynamics
ID GREENHOUSE-GAS EMISSIONS; CLIMATE-CHANGE; LAND-USE; SECURITY; SCENARIOS;
   COUNTRIES; PATHWAYS; CONSEQUENCES; BIODIVERSITY; NITROGEN
AB The global food system is recognized as the largest source of pressure on the Earth's stability, and there is a pressing need for a swift global transformation toward a sustainable food system, which is also crucial for achieving the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) and the Paris Agreement goals. While various response strategies have been developed to achieve the sustainable food system, it remains unclear how different response strategies and their combinations interactively affect global environmental functions. Here, we use a system dynamics-based integrated assessment model to quantitatively assess the effects of five representative response strategies, which are well-recognized to be potential for achieving a sustainable food system, and their combinations on the global environment. We use six boundary indicators, corresponding to six key Earth system processes and indicating the safe-operating spaces of the global food system, to define the global environmental performance. Our results show that the effects of response strategies may have a synergistic effect or counterbalance. While some individual strategies are sufficient to maintain certain boundary indicators within their safe zones, only the combination of all strategies can simultaneously prevent all boundary indicators from entering high-risk zones. More coordinated solutions within and outside the global food system are required to restore all boundary indicators to their safe zones.
C1 [Yang, Jing; Liu, Qi; Guo, Zhaoxia] Sichuan Univ, Business Sch, Chengdu 610065, Peoples R China.
   [Gao, Lei] CSIRO, Adelaide, SA, Australia.
C3 Sichuan University; Commonwealth Scientific & Industrial Research
   Organisation (CSIRO)
RP Guo, ZX (corresponding author), Sichuan Univ, Business Sch, Chengdu 610065, Peoples R China.
EM zx.guo@alumni.polyu.edu.hk
RI ; Gao, Lei/F-9698-2010
OI Liu, Qi/0000-0002-3000-7559; Yang, Jing/0009-0007-1690-0651; Gao,
   Lei/0000-0003-4272-9417
FU This research was funded by the General Program of the National Natural
   Science Foundation of China (Grant No. 72171159), and China Scholarship
   Council (Grant No. 202006240133). [72171159]; General Program of the
   National Natural Science Foundation of China [202006240133]; China
   Scholarship Council
FX This research was funded by the General Program of the National Natural
   Science Foundation of China (Grant No. 72171159), and China Scholarship
   Council (Grant No. 202006240133).
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NR 90
TC 6
Z9 6
U1 2
U2 54
PU WILEY
PI HOBOKEN
PA 111 RIVER ST, HOBOKEN 07030-5774, NJ USA
SN 0968-0802
EI 1099-1719
J9 SUSTAIN DEV
JI Sustain. Dev.
PD JUN
PY 2024
VL 32
IS 3
BP 2435
EP 2453
DI 10.1002/sd.2795
EA OCT 2023
PG 19
WC Development Studies; Green & Sustainable Science & Technology; Regional
   & Urban Planning
WE Social Science Citation Index (SSCI)
SC Development Studies; Science & Technology - Other Topics; Public
   Administration
GA UD6S2
UT WOS:001087003400001
OA Bronze
DA 2026-06-25
ER

PT J
AU Liu, Q
   Yang, J
   Gao, L
   Dong, YC
   Guo, ZX
   Moallemi, EA
   Eker, S
   Obersteiner, M
AF Liu, Qi
   Yang, Jing
   Gao, Lei
   Dong, Yucheng
   Guo, Zhaoxia
   Moallemi, Enayat A.
   Eker, Sibel
   Obersteiner, Michael
TI Robust sensitivity analysis to uncertainties in environmental and
   socio-economic scenarios: A perspective from a global socio-ecological
   system model
SO JOURNAL OF CLEANER PRODUCTION
LA English
DT Article
DE Robust sensitivity analysis; Uncertainty; System dynamics; Planetary
   boundary
ID GREENHOUSE-GAS CONCENTRATIONS; CLIMATE; WATER; EXTENSIONS
AB Uncertainties exist in modelling and simulating complex socio-ecological systems due to unknown, unmeasurable, and uncontrollable occurrence probabilities of future conditions, which are often expressed through multiple representative future scenarios. The sensitivities of uncertain scenario parameters that comprise these scenarios may be different under different scenarios. To largely reduce unnecessary efforts of refining insensitive parameters, it is helpful to identify scenario parameters that remain sensitive in all plausible future scenarios. Based on a well-established global socio-ecological system model-Functional Enviro-economic Linkages Integrated neXus (FeliX), this study conducted robust sensitivity analyses of the scenario parameters that defined five representative environmental and socio-economic scenarios. The study explored their sensitivities on ecoenvironmental carrying capacity represented by six planetary boundary (PB) indicators. A three-step method was proposed for these analyses. First, an uncertainty analysis was adopted to explore the impacts of uncertain scenario parameters on PB indicators in each scenario using the Latin hypercube sampling and nonparametric Kruskal-Wallis test. Second, a sensitivity analysis was utilized to quantify the global sensitivity of each parameter using the Extended Fourier Transform Sensitivity Test (eFAST). Third, we conducted a robust sensitivity analysis and identified 12 common sensitive parameters that remained sensitive under all five scenarios by combining the eFAST's results according to four decision criteria representing different decision preferences. This study provides a better understanding of the sensitivity of scenario parameters on PB indicators influenced by future uncertainties across five representative scenarios in a complex socio-ecological system modelled by FeliX. The findings make it easier to improve and apply FeliX or other socio-ecological system models by focusing on key parameters and understanding important linkages of sectors in socio-ecological systems.
C1 [Liu, Qi; Yang, Jing; Dong, Yucheng; Guo, Zhaoxia] Sichuan Univ, Business Sch, Chengdu 610065, Peoples R China.
   [Gao, Lei] CSIRO, Waite Campus, Adelaide, SA 5064, Australia.
   [Moallemi, Enayat A.] CSIRO, Black Mt, ACT, Australia.
   [Eker, Sibel; Obersteiner, Michael] Int Inst Appl Syst Anal, A-2361 Laxenburg, Austria.
   [Moallemi, Enayat A.; Eker, Sibel] Radboud Univ Nijmegen, Nijmegen Sch Management, Nijmegen, Netherlands.
   [Obersteiner, Michael] Univ Oxford, Environm Change Inst, Oxford, England.
C3 Sichuan University; Commonwealth Scientific & Industrial Research
   Organisation (CSIRO); Commonwealth Scientific & Industrial Research
   Organisation (CSIRO); International Institute for Applied Systems
   Analysis (IIASA); Radboud University Nijmegen; University of Oxford
RP Guo, ZX (corresponding author), Sichuan Univ, Business Sch, Chengdu 610065, Peoples R China.
EM liuqi_67@stu.scu.edu.cn; yang_jing@stu.scu.edu.cn; lei.gao@csiro.au;
   ycdong@scu.edu.cn; zx.guo@alumni.polyu.edu.hk; e.moallemi@deakin.edu.au;
   eker@iiasa.ac.at; michael.obersteiner@ouce.ox.ac.uk
RI Dong, Yucheng/J-1668-2017; Moallemi, Enayat A/D-5758-2015; Obersteiner,
   Michael/ADG-8592-2022; LIU, Qi/I-4900-2017; Eker, Sibel/HHS-4681-2022;
   Gao, Lei/F-9698-2010
OI Dong, Yucheng/0000-0002-0028-6796; Liu, Qi/0000-0002-3000-7559;
   Moallemi, Enayat A/0000-0001-8346-4043; Obersteiner,
   Michael/0000-0001-6981-2769; Eker, Sibel/0000-0003-2264-132X; Gao,
   Lei/0000-0003-4272-9417
FU General Program of the National Natural Science Foundation of China
   [72171159]; Sichuan Social Science Planning Project [SC22B115]; Sichuan
   Circular Economy Research Center [XHJJ-1901]
FX This research was funded by the General Program of the National Natural
   Science Foundation of China (Grant No., 72171159) , Sichuan Social
   Science Planning Project (Grant No., SC22B115) , and Sichuan Circular
   Economy Research Center (Grant No., XHJJ-1901) .
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NR 53
TC 20
Z9 21
U1 2
U2 71
PU ELSEVIER SCI LTD
PI London
PA 125 London Wall, London, ENGLAND
SN 0959-6526
EI 1879-1786
J9 J CLEAN PROD
JI J. Clean Prod.
PD JUL 15
PY 2023
VL 410
AR 137244
DI 10.1016/j.jclepro.2023.137244
EA APR 2023
PG 11
WC Green & Sustainable Science & Technology; Engineering, Environmental;
   Environmental Sciences
WE Science Citation Index Expanded (SCI-EXPANDED)
SC Science & Technology - Other Topics; Engineering; Environmental Sciences
   & Ecology
GA G4XA5
UT WOS:000989190000001
OA Bronze
DA 2026-06-25
ER

PT J
AU Liu, Q
   Gao, L
   Guo, ZX
   Dong, YC
   Moallemi, EA
   Eker, S
   Yang, J
   Obersteiner, M
   Bryan, BA
AF Liu, Qi
   Gao, Lei
   Guo, Zhaoxia
   Dong, Yucheng
   Moallemi, Enayat A.
   Eker, Sibel
   Yang, Jing
   Obersteiner, Michael
   Bryan, Brett A.
TI Robust strategies to end global poverty and reduce environmental
   pressures
SO ONE EARTH
LA English
DT Article
ID CLIMATE-CHANGE; INEQUALITY; COUNTRIES; EDUCATION; SYSTEM; MODEL;
   ERADICATION; SCENARIOS; PATHWAYS; FUTURE
AB Eradicating extreme poverty everywhere by 2030 has proved to be challenging. Uplifting millions out of poverty might lead to exceeding the Earth's environmental boundaries. Using a global integrated assessment model, we assess the effectiveness of 900 strategies under 25 socioeconomic settings in eliminating poverty and quantify their impacts on the Earth system by 2050. Our reference scenario, which follows a post -pandemic economic trend with an annual economic growth rate of 2.05%, projects an extreme poverty rate of 7.34% (uncertainty range 6.29%-8.73%) in 2030. Even under optimistic settings, it may take over two decades to eradicate extreme poverty. Focusing more on environmental drivers of poverty and following historical trends in fiscal policies and social safety nets, we identified two robust strategies characterized by ambitious educational attendance, sustainable dietary choices, low fossil fuel consumption and energy de-mand, and low fertilizer use, which offset negative environmental effects without compromising the poverty eradication gains.
C1 [Liu, Qi; Guo, Zhaoxia; Dong, Yucheng; Yang, Jing] Sichuan Univ, Business Sch, Chengdu 610065, Peoples R China.
   [Liu, Qi; Eker, Sibel; Obersteiner, Michael] Int Inst Appl Syst Anal, A-2361 Laxenburg, Austria.
   [Gao, Lei] Commonwealth Sci & Ind Res Org CSIRO, Waite Campus, Adelaide, SA 5064, Australia.
   [Guo, Zhaoxia; Dong, Yucheng] Sichuan Univ, Soft Sci Inst, Chengdu 610065, Peoples R China.
   [Moallemi, Enayat A.] Commonwealth Sci & Ind Res Org CSIRO, Black Mt, ACT, Australia.
   [Eker, Sibel] Radboud Univ Nijmegen, Nijmegen Sch Management, Nijmegen, Netherlands.
   [Obersteiner, Michael] Univ Oxford, Environm Change Inst, Oxford, England.
   [Bryan, Brett A.] Deakin Univ, Ctr Integrat Ecol, Sch Life & Environm Sci, Melbourne, Vic, Australia.
C3 Sichuan University; International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis
   (IIASA); Commonwealth Scientific & Industrial Research Organisation
   (CSIRO); Sichuan University; Commonwealth Scientific & Industrial
   Research Organisation (CSIRO); Radboud University Nijmegen; University
   of Oxford; Deakin University
RP Guo, ZX; Dong, YC (corresponding author), Sichuan Univ, Business Sch, Chengdu 610065, Peoples R China.; Guo, ZX; Dong, YC (corresponding author), Sichuan Univ, Soft Sci Inst, Chengdu 610065, Peoples R China.
EM zx.guo@alumni.polyu.edu.hk; ycdong@scu.edu.cn
RI ; Eker, Sibel/HHS-4681-2022; Bryan, Brett/F-8949-2010; Obersteiner,
   Michael/ADG-8592-2022; Dong, Yucheng/J-1668-2017; Moallemi, Enayat
   A/D-5758-2015
OI Liu, Qi/0000-0002-3000-7559; Dong, Yucheng/0000-0002-0028-6796;
   Moallemi, Enayat A/0000-0001-8346-4043
FU General Program of the National Natural Science Foundation of China
   [72171159, 71872118]; Sichuan University [SKSYL201819]; China
   Scholarship Council [202006240133]; Deakin University
FX This research was funded by the General Program of the National Natural
   Science Foundation of China (grant nos. 72171159 and 71872118) , Sichuan
   University (grant no. SKSYL201819) , and China Scholarship Council
   (grant no. 202006240133) . E.A.M. received funding for part of this
   research from Deakin University.
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NR 117
TC 17
Z9 21
U1 5
U2 114
PU CELL PRESS
PI CAMBRIDGE
PA 50 HAMPSHIRE ST, FLOOR 5, CAMBRIDGE, MA 02139 USA
SN 2590-3330
EI 2590-3322
J9 ONE EARTH
JI One Earth
PD APR 21
PY 2023
VL 6
IS 4
BP 392
EP 408
DI 10.1016/j.oneear.2023.03.007
EA APR 2023
PG 18
WC Green & Sustainable Science & Technology; Environmental Sciences;
   Environmental Studies
WE Science Citation Index Expanded (SCI-EXPANDED); Social Science Citation Index (SSCI)
SC Science & Technology - Other Topics; Environmental Sciences & Ecology
GA I2IY6
UT WOS:001001084100001
OA Green Submitted, Bronze
DA 2026-06-25
ER

PT J
AU Moallemi, EA
   Eker, S
   Gao, L
   Hadjikakou, M
   Liu, Q
   Kwakkel, J
   Reed, PM
   Obersteiner, M
   Guo, ZX
   Bryan, BA
AF Moallemi, Enayat A.
   Eker, Sibel
   Gao, Lei
   Hadjikakou, Michalis
   Liu, Qi
   Kwakkel, Jan
   Reed, Patrick M.
   Obersteiner, Michael
   Guo, Zhaoxia
   Bryan, Brett A.
TI Early systems change necessary for catalyzing long- term sustainability
   in a post-2030 agenda
SO ONE EARTH
LA English
DT Article
ID PATHWAYS; INNOVATION; POPULATION; MITIGATION; AUSTRALIA; SCENARIOS;
   PROGRESS; IMPACTS; POLICY; ENERGY
AB Progress to date toward the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) has fallen short of expectations and is unlikely to fully meet 2030 targets. Past assessments have mostly focused on short-and medium-term eval-uations, thus limiting the ability to explore the longer-term effects of systemic interactions with time lags and delay. Here we undertake global systems modeling with a longer-term view than previous assessments in or-der to explore the drivers of sustainability progress and how they could play out by 2030, 2050, and 2100 un-der different development pathways and quantitative targets. We find that early planning for systems change to shift from business as usual to more sustainable pathways is important for accelerating progress toward increasingly ambitious targets by 2030, 2050, and 2100. These findings indicate the importance of adopting longer-term timeframes and pathways to ensure that the necessary pre-conditions are in place for sustain -ability beyond the current 2030 Agenda.
C1 [Moallemi, Enayat A.; Hadjikakou, Michalis; Bryan, Brett A.] Deakin Univ, Ctr Integrat Ecol, Sch Life & Environm Sci, Melbourne, Vic, Australia.
   [Eker, Sibel] Radboud Univ Nijmegen, Nijmegen Sch Management, Nijmegen, Netherlands.
   [Eker, Sibel; Liu, Qi] Int Inst Appl Syst Anal, Laxenburg, Austria.
   [Gao, Lei] Commonwealth Sci & Ind Res Org CSIRO, Waite Campus, Urrbrae, SA, Australia.
   [Liu, Qi; Guo, Zhaoxia] Sichuan Univ, Business Sch, Chengdu 610065, Peoples R China.
   [Kwakkel, Jan] Delft Univ Technol, Fac Technol Policy & Management, Delft, Netherlands.
   [Reed, Patrick M.] Cornell Univ, Dept Civil & Environm Engn, Ithaca, NY USA.
   [Obersteiner, Michael] Univ Oxford, Environm Change Inst, Oxford, England.
   [Guo, Zhaoxia] Sichuan Univ, Soft Sci Inst, Chengdu 610065, Peoples R China.
C3 Deakin University; Radboud University Nijmegen; International Institute
   for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA); Commonwealth Scientific &
   Industrial Research Organisation (CSIRO); Sichuan University; Delft
   University of Technology; Cornell University; University of Oxford;
   Sichuan University
RP Moallemi, EA (corresponding author), Deakin Univ, Ctr Integrat Ecol, Sch Life & Environm Sci, Melbourne, Vic, Australia.
EM e.moallemi@deakin.edu.au
RI Moallemi, Enayat A/D-5758-2015; Eker, Sibel/HHS-4681-2022; Gao,
   Lei/F-9698-2010; LIU, Qi/I-4900-2017; Hadjikakou, Michalis/F-1820-2014;
   Reed, Patrick/E-4435-2014; Obersteiner, Michael/ADG-8592-2022; Bryan,
   Brett Anthony/F-8949-2010; Kwakkel, Jan/D-9680-2013
OI Moallemi, Enayat A/0000-0001-8346-4043; Gao, Lei/0000-0003-4272-9417;
   Hadjikakou, Michalis/0000-0002-3667-3982; Reed,
   Patrick/0000-0002-7963-6102; Bryan, Brett Anthony/0000-0003-4834-5641; 
FU Ian Potter Foundation; Deakin University; 4TU.HTSF DeSIRE program
FX B.A.B. and E.A.M. received funding from The Ian Potter Foundation and
   Deakin University for this research. E.A.M. also acknowledges funding
   from the 4TU.HTSF DeSIRE program of the four universities of technology
   in the Netherlands. The graphical abstract was designed by Ooid
   Scientific. Images in Figures 7, 8, 9, and 10 are by Denisse Leon, Doug
   Linstedt, Nathan Dumlao, Note Thanun, Artur Tumasjan, Tuan Nguyen,
   Heamosoo Kim, Louis Reed, Ying Ge, Maria Lupan, Katie Rodriguez,
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   Ibrahim Boran, Max Bender, Jessica Pamp, Patrick Hendry, Markus Winkler,
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NR 121
TC 48
Z9 54
U1 3
U2 83
PU CELL PRESS
PI CAMBRIDGE
PA 50 HAMPSHIRE ST, FLOOR 5, CAMBRIDGE, MA 02139 USA
SN 2590-3330
EI 2590-3322
J9 ONE EARTH
JI One Earth
PD JUL 15
PY 2022
VL 5
IS 7
BP 792
EP 811
DI 10.1016/j.oneear.2022.06.003
EA JUL 2022
PG 21
WC Green & Sustainable Science & Technology; Environmental Sciences;
   Environmental Studies
WE Science Citation Index Expanded (SCI-EXPANDED); Social Science Citation Index (SSCI)
SC Science & Technology - Other Topics; Environmental Sciences & Ecology
GA 3R0VX
UT WOS:000838639500010
OA Green Published, Green Submitted, hybrid
DA 2026-06-25
ER

PT J
AU Moallemi, EA
   Gao, L
   Eker, S
   Bryan, BA
AF Moallemi, Enayat A.
   Gao, Lei
   Eker, Sibel
   Bryan, Brett A.
TI Diversifying models for analysing global change scenarios and
   sustainability pathways
SO GLOBAL SUSTAINABILITY
LA English
DT Article
DE integrated assessment; scenario; SDGs; sustainability; system dynamics;
   uncertainty
ID SHARED SOCIOECONOMIC PATHWAYS; MEAN TEMPERATURE INCREASE; CLIMATE-CHANGE
   RESEARCH; EARTHS CLIMATE; ENERGY; MITIGATION; UNCERTAINTY; TRANSITIONS;
   DECISIONS; EMISSIONS
AB Non-technical summary Models are increasingly used to inform the transformation of human-Earth systems towards a sustainable future, aligned with the sustainable development goals (SDGs). We argue that a greater diversity of models ought to be used for sustainability analysis to better address complexity and uncertainty. We articulate the steps to model global change socioeconomic and climatic scenarios with new models. Through these steps, we generate new scenario projections using a human-Earth system dynamics model. Our modelling brings new insights about the sensitivity of sustainability trends to future uncertainty and their alignment with or divergence from previous model-based scenario projections. Technical summary The future uncertainty and complexity of alternative socioeconomic and climatic scenarios challenge the model-based analysis of sustainable development. Obtaining robust insights requires a systematic processing of uncertainty and complexity not only in input assumptions, but also in the diversity of model structures that simulates the multisectoral dynamics of human and Earth system interactions. Here, we implement the global change scenarios, that is, the shared socioeconomic pathways and the representative concentration pathways, in a feedback-rich, integrated assessment model (IAM) of human-Earth system dynamics, called FeliX, to serve two aims: (1) to provide modellers with well-defined steps for the adoption of established scenarios in new IAMs and (2) to explore the impacts of model uncertainty and its structural complexity on the projection of these scenarios for sustainable development. Our modelling shows internally consistent scenario storylines across sectors, yet with quantitatively different realisations of these scenarios compared to other IAMs due to the new model's structural complexity. The results highlight the importance of enumerating global change scenarios and their uncertainty exploration with a diversity of models of different input assumptions and structures to capture a wider variety of future possibilities and sustainability indicators. Social media summary New study highlights the importance of global change scenario analysis with new, SDG-focused IAMs.
C1 [Moallemi, Enayat A.; Bryan, Brett A.] Deakin Univ, Ctr Integrat Ecol, Sch Life & Environm Sci, Melbourne, Vic, Australia.
   [Gao, Lei] Commonwealth Sci & Ind Res Org CSIRO, Waite Campus, Urrbrae, Australia.
   [Eker, Sibel] Radboud Univ Nijmegen, Nijmegen Sch Management, Nijmegen, Netherlands.
   [Eker, Sibel] Int Inst Appl Syst Anal, Laxenburg, Austria.
C3 Deakin University; Commonwealth Scientific & Industrial Research
   Organisation (CSIRO); Radboud University Nijmegen; International
   Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA)
RP Moallemi, EA (corresponding author), Deakin Univ, Ctr Integrat Ecol, Sch Life & Environm Sci, Melbourne, Vic, Australia.
EM e.moallemi@deakin.edu.au
RI Moallemi, Enayat A/D-5758-2015; Gao, Lei/F-9698-2010; Eker,
   Sibel/HHS-4681-2022; Bryan, Brett Anthony/F-8949-2010
OI Moallemi, Enayat A/0000-0001-8346-4043; Gao, Lei/0000-0003-4272-9417;
   Eker, Sibel/0000-0003-2264-132X; Bryan, Brett
   Anthony/0000-0003-4834-5641
FU Ian Potter Foundation; Deakin University [20190016]
FX This work is funded by The Ian Potter Foundation and Deakin University
   (Grant number: 20190016).
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NR 97
TC 23
Z9 25
U1 0
U2 23
PU CAMBRIDGE UNIV PRESS
PI CAMBRIDGE
PA EDINBURGH BLDG, SHAFTESBURY RD, CB2 8RU CAMBRIDGE, ENGLAND
EI 2059-4798
J9 GLOB SUSTAIN
JI Glob. Sustain.
PD MAR 16
PY 2022
VL 5
AR e7
DI 10.1017/sus.2022.7
PG 17
WC Green & Sustainable Science & Technology; Environmental Sciences;
   Environmental Studies
WE Emerging Sources Citation Index (ESCI)
SC Science & Technology - Other Topics; Environmental Sciences & Ecology
GA 0I9RW
UT WOS:000779750200001
OA gold
DA 2026-06-25
ER

PT J
AU Eker, S
   Reese, G
   Obersteiner, M
AF Eker, Sibel
   Reese, Gerhard
   Obersteiner, Michael
TI Modelling the drivers of a widespread shift to sustainable diets
SO NATURE SUSTAINABILITY
LA English
DT Article
ID PROTECTION MOTIVATION THEORY; CLIMATE-CHANGE; PLANNED BEHAVIOR;
   SOCIAL-INFLUENCE; SENSITIVITY-ANALYSIS; SCENARIO DISCOVERY; MEAT
   CONSUMPTION; FOOD CHOICES; HEALTH; IMPACT
AB A reduction in global meat consumption can significantly reduce the adverse environmental effects of the food system, but it would require widespread dietary changes. Such shifts to sustainable diets depend on several behavioural factors that have not yet been addressed in relation to the food system. This study links a behavioural diet shift model to an integrated assessment model to identify the main drivers of global diet change and its implications for the food system. The results show that the social norm effect (for instance, the extent of vegetarianism in the population that accelerates a further switch to a vegetarian diet) and self-efficacy are the main drivers of widespread dietary changes. These findings stress the importance of value-driven actions motivated either by intrinsic identity or by group dynamics over health and climate risk perceptions in steering diet change dynamics.
C1 [Eker, Sibel; Obersteiner, Michael] Int Inst Appl Syst Anal, Laxenburg, Austria.
   [Reese, Gerhard] Univ Koblenz Landau, Dept Social Environm & Econ Psychol, Landau, Germany.
C3 International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA); RPTU
   University Kaiserslautern
RP Eker, S (corresponding author), Int Inst Appl Syst Anal, Laxenburg, Austria.
EM eker@iiasa.ac.at
RI Reese, Gerhard/U-9446-2019; Eker, Sibel/HHS-4681-2022; Obersteiner,
   Michael/ADG-8592-2022
OI Eker, Sibel/0000-0003-2264-132X; Obersteiner,
   Michael/0000-0001-6981-2769
FU International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA); European
   Research Council Synergy grant [ERC-2013-SyG.610028-IMBALANCE-P]
FX This research was supported by the International Institute for Applied
   Systems Analysis (IIASA) and by the European Research Council Synergy
   grant ERC-2013-SyG.610028-IMBALANCE-P. We thank Hugo Valin for his
   suggestion to use the Global Burden of Disease datasets for modelling
   the health risk of red meat consumption. We thank Ansa Heyl for a
   language check.
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NR 86
TC 146
Z9 159
U1 2
U2 148
PU NATURE PUBLISHING GROUP
PI LONDON
PA MACMILLAN BUILDING, 4 CRINAN ST, LONDON N1 9XW, ENGLAND
SN 2398-9629
J9 NAT SUSTAIN
JI Nat. Sustain.
PD AUG
PY 2019
VL 2
IS 8
BP 725
EP 735
DI 10.1038/s41893-019-0331-1
PG 11
WC Green & Sustainable Science & Technology; Environmental Sciences;
   Environmental Studies
WE Science Citation Index Expanded (SCI-EXPANDED); Social Science Citation Index (SSCI)
SC Science & Technology - Other Topics; Environmental Sciences & Ecology
GA IQ0HF
UT WOS:000480430900022
OA Green Submitted
DA 2026-06-25
ER

PT J
AU Walsh, B
   Ciais, P
   Janssens, IA
   Peñuelas, J
   Riahi, K
   Rydzak, F
   van Vuuren, DP
   Obersteiner, M
AF Walsh, Brian
   Ciais, Philippe
   Janssens, Ivan A.
   Penuelas, Josep
   Riahi, Keywan
   Rydzak, Felicjan
   van Vuuren, Detlef P.
   Obersteiner, Michael
TI Pathways for balancing CO2 emissions and sinks
SO NATURE COMMUNICATIONS
LA English
DT Article
ID CLIMATE; BIOMASS; BIOENERGY
AB In December 2015 in Paris, leaders committed to achieve global, net decarbonization of human activities before 2100. This achievement would halt and even reverse anthropogenic climate change through the net removal of carbon from the atmosphere. However, the Paris documents contain few specific prescriptions for emissions mitigation, leaving various countries to pursue their own agendas. In this analysis, we project energy and land-use emissions mitigation pathways through 2100, subject to best-available parameterization of carbon-climate feedbacks and interdependencies. We find that, barring unforeseen and transformative technological advancement, anthropogenic emissions need to peak within the next 10 years, to maintain realistic pathways to meeting the COP21 emissions and warming targets. Fossil fuel consumption will probably need to be reduced below a quarter of primary energy supply by 2100 and the allowable consumption rate drops even further if negative emissions technologies remain technologically or economically unfeasible at the global scale.
C1 [Walsh, Brian; Riahi, Keywan; Rydzak, Felicjan; Obersteiner, Michael] Int Inst Appl Syst Anal, Schlosspl 1, A-2361 Laxenburg, Austria.
   [Ciais, Philippe] UVSQ, CEA, CNRS, Lab Sci Climat & Environm, F-91190 St Aubin, France.
   [Janssens, Ivan A.] Univ Antwerp, B-2610 Antwerp, Belgium.
   [Penuelas, Josep] UAB, CSIC, CREAF, Global Ecol Unit, Cerdanyola Del Valles 08193, Catalonia, Spain.
   [Penuelas, Josep] CREAF, Cerdanyola Del Valles 08193, Catalonia, Spain.
   [van Vuuren, Detlef P.] PBL Netherlands Environm Assessment Agcy, NL-2594 The Hague, Netherlands.
   [van Vuuren, Detlef P.] Univ Utrecht, Copernicus Inst Sustainable Dev, NL-3584 CS Utrecht, Netherlands.
C3 International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA); Universite
   Paris Saclay; Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS); CEA;
   University of Antwerp; Consejo Superior de Investigaciones Cientificas
   (CSIC); Autonomous University of Barcelona; Centro de Investigacion
   Ecologica y Aplicaciones Forestales (CREAF-CERCA); Centro de
   Investigacion Ecologica y Aplicaciones Forestales (CREAF-CERCA); Utrecht
   University
RP Walsh, B (corresponding author), Int Inst Appl Syst Anal, Schlosspl 1, A-2361 Laxenburg, Austria.
EM walsh@iiasa.ac.at
RI ; Janssens, Ivan/JAN-7752-2023; van Vuuren, Detlef/A-4764-2009;
   Obersteiner, Michael/ADG-8592-2022; Riahi, Keywan/B-6426-2011; Ciais,
   Philippe/A-6840-2011; Penuelas, Josep/D-9704-2011
OI Walsh, Brian/0000-0003-1689-2309; Janssens, Ivan/0000-0002-5705-1787;
   van Vuuren, Detlef/0000-0003-0398-2831; Obersteiner,
   Michael/0000-0001-6981-2769; Riahi, Keywan/0000-0001-7193-3498; 
FU European Research Council Synergy grant [ERC-2013-SyG-610028
   IMBALANCE-P]
FX We acknowledge support from the European Research Council Synergy grant
   ERC-2013-SyG-610028 IMBALANCE-P and the foundational work on the FeliX
   model done by Dr Steffen Fritz, Dr Ian McCallum and Florian Kraxner of
   IIASA. We also thank Dr Joeri Rogelj for reviewing and offering helpful
   comments on the manuscript.
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NR 38
TC 153
Z9 170
U1 1
U2 112
PU NATURE PORTFOLIO
PI BERLIN
PA HEIDELBERGER PLATZ 3, BERLIN, 14197, GERMANY
EI 2041-1723
J9 NAT COMMUN
JI Nat. Commun.
PD APR 13
PY 2017
VL 8
AR 14856
DI 10.1038/ncomms14856
PG 12
WC Multidisciplinary Sciences
WE Science Citation Index Expanded (SCI-EXPANDED)
SC Science & Technology - Other Topics
GA ER8EN
UT WOS:000399051300001
PM 28406154
OA Green Accepted, Green Submitted, gold
DA 2026-06-25
ER

EF