FN Clarivate Analytics Web of Science
VR 1.0
PT J
AU Liu, Q
   Guo, ZX
   Guo, MX
   Yang, J
   Dong, YC
   Gao, L
AF Liu, Qi
   Guo, Zhaoxia
   Guo, Mengxin
   Yang, Jing
   Dong, Yucheng
   Gao, Lei
TI Assessing the Dynamic Evolution of Global Energy Poverty Under Uncertain
   Climate Trends-Shaped Future Pathways
SO SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT
LA English
DT Article
DE climate targets; energy poverty evolution; sustainable development;
   system dynamics integrated assessment
ID MITIGATION
AB Energy poverty hinders the achievement of Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) and effective climate governance. It is important to assess the dynamic evolution of energy poverty influenced by climate change, socioeconomic development, and energy poverty reduction policies. This study constructs a global energy poverty assessment indicator system with three dimensions: energy availability, affordability, and cleanability. We use a system dynamic integrated assessment model to evaluate the dynamic evolution of global energy poverty from 2025 to 2100 across 192 scenarios considering eight climate categories (targets), three demographic-economic pathways, and three policy clusters. Results show that the energy poverty index (EPI) is most influenced by energy cleanability, followed by affordability and availability. Achieving more stringent climate targets helps to reduce energy poverty, and the two optimal policy combinations identified reduce EPI by up to 22% by 2050 and 41% by 2100. This study provides insights for synergistic climate and energy poverty governance, supporting SDGs advancement.
C1 [Liu, Qi; Guo, Zhaoxia; Guo, Mengxin; Dong, Yucheng] Sichuan Univ, Business Sch, Chengdu, Peoples R China.
   [Yang, Jing] Sichuan Univ, West China Sch Publ Hlth, Chengdu, Peoples R China.
   [Gao, Lei] Commonwealth Sci & Ind Res Org CSIRO, Waite Campus, Adelaide, SA, Australia.
C3 Sichuan University; Sichuan University; Commonwealth Scientific &
   Industrial Research Organisation (CSIRO)
RP Yang, J (corresponding author), Sichuan Univ, West China Sch Publ Hlth, Chengdu, Peoples R China.
EM yangjing5114@scu.edu.cn
RI Dong, Yucheng/J-1668-2017
OI Dong, Yucheng/0000-0002-0028-6796; Liu, Qi/0000-0002-3000-7559
FU National Natural Science Foundation of China [72404200, 72574157]; China
   Postdoctoral Science Foundation [2025M770790, GZC20241170]
FX This research was funded by the National Natural Science Foundation of
   China (Grant Nos, 72404200, 72574157), and the China Postdoctoral
   Science Foundation (Grant Nos, GZC20241170, 2025M770790).
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NR 58
TC 1
Z9 1
U1 19
U2 29
PU WILEY
PI HOBOKEN
PA 111 RIVER ST, HOBOKEN 07030-5774, NJ USA
SN 0968-0802
EI 1099-1719
J9 SUSTAIN DEV
JI Sustain. Dev.
PD MAR
PY 2026
VL 34
SU 2
BP 1203
EP 1220
DI 10.1002/sd.70396
EA NOV 2025
PG 18
WC Development Studies; Green & Sustainable Science & Technology; Regional
   & Urban Planning
WE Social Science Citation Index (SSCI)
SC Development Studies; Science & Technology - Other Topics; Public
   Administration
GA EX3ZI
UT WOS:001607703300001
DA 2026-06-13
ER

PT J
AU Schoenberg, W
   Blanz, B
   Rajah, J
   Callegari, B
   Wells, C
   Breier, J
   Grimeland, M
   Lindqvist, A
   Ramme, L
   Smith, C
   Li, C
   Mashhadi, S
   Muralidhar, A
   Mauritzen, C
AF Schoenberg, William
   Blanz, Benjamin
   Rajah, Jefferson k.
   Callegari, Beniamino
   Wells, Christopher
   Breier, Jannes
   Grimeland, Martin b.
   Lindqvist, Andreas nicolaidis
   Ramme, Lennart
   Smith, Chris
   Li, Chao
   Mashhadi, Sarah
   Muralidhar, Adakudlu
   Mauritzen, Cecilie
TI An overview of FRIDA v2.1: a feedback-based, fully coupled, global
   integrated assessment model of climate and humans
SO GEOSCIENTIFIC MODEL DEVELOPMENT
LA English
DT Article
ID IMPULSE-RESPONSE; EARTH; IMPACT; BEHAVIOR; TEMPERATURE; CONSUMPTION;
   POPULATION; VALIDATION; EMISSIONS; RISKS
AB The current crop of models assessed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) to produce their assessment reports lack endogenous process-based representations of climate-driven changes to human activities, especially beyond the purely economic consequences of climate change. These climate-driven changes in human activities are critical to understanding the co-evolution of the climate and human systems. Earth System Models (ESMs) that represent the climate system and Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs) that represent the human system are typically separate, with assumptions that create coherency coordinated through RCPs and SSPs in ScenarioMIP, the core scenario analysis protocol. This divide limits understanding of climate-human feedback. An alternative aggregated approach, which couples human and natural systems (CHANS) such as the one used to build the Feedback-based knowledge Repository for IntegrateD Assessments "FRIDA" v2.1 IAM documented here, integrates climate and human systems into a unified global model, prioritizing feedback dynamics while maintaining interpretability. FRIDA represents the Earth's radiation balance, carbon cycle, and relevant portions of the water cycle alongside human demographics, economics, agriculture, and human energy use. Built using the System Dynamics method, it contains seven interconnected modules. Each subsystem is calibrated to data and validated to ensure structurally appropriate behaviour representation. FRIDA demonstrates that an aggregate, feedback-driven modelling approach, capturing CHANS interconnections with rigorous measurements of uncertainty, is possible. It complements conventional IAMs by highlighting missing feedback structures that affect future projections. Our work with FRIDA suggests SSP1-Baseline, SSP2-Baseline, and SSP5-Baseline are all overly optimistic on the prospects for future economic growth due to these feedbacks, while SSP3-Baseline and SSP4-Baseline, the SSPs with the highest challenges to adaptation, align more closely with our results. Future work will further refine climate impact representations, energy modelling, policy scenario creation, and stakeholder engagement for informed policymaking.
C1 [Schoenberg, William] Univ Bergen, Syst Dynam Grp, POB 7802, N-5020 Bergen, Norway.
   [Schoenberg, William] Isee Syst Inc, 24 Hanover St Suite 8A, Lebanon, NH 03766 USA.
   [Blanz, Benjamin] Univ Hamburg, Res Unit Sustainabil & Climate Risks, Grindelberg 5, D-20144 Hamburg, Germany.
   [Callegari, Beniamino] Kristiania Univ Appl Sci, Sch Econ Innovat & Technol, Oslo, Norway.
   [Wells, Christopher] Univ Leeds, Sch Earth & Environm, Leeds LS2 9JT, England.
   [Breier, Jannes] Potsdam Inst Climate Impact Res, Telegrafenberg A31, D-14473 Potsdam, Germany.
   [Lindqvist, Andreas nicolaidis] Stockholm Univ, Stockholm Resilience Ctr, Albanovagen 28, S-10691 Stockholm, Sweden.
   [Lindqvist, Andreas nicolaidis] RISE Res Inst Sweden, Ideon Beta5,Scheelevagen 17, S-22370 Lund, Sweden.
   [Ramme, Lennart] Max Planck Inst Meteorol, Bundesstr 53, D-20146 Hamburg, Germany.
   [Smith, Chris] Vrije Univ Brussel, Dept Water & Climate, B-1050 Brussels, Belgium.
   [Smith, Chris] Int Inst Appl Syst Anal IIASA, Energy Climate & Environm Program, Laxenburg, Austria.
   [Mashhadi, Sarah; Muralidhar, Adakudlu; Mauritzen, Cecilie] Norwegian Meteorol Inst, Dept Ocean & Ice, N-0313 Oslo, Norway.
C3 University of Bergen; University of Hamburg; Kristiania University of
   Applied Sciences; University of Leeds; Potsdam Institut fur
   Klimafolgenforschung; Stockholm University; RISE Research Institutes of
   Sweden; Max Planck Society; Vrije Universiteit Brussel; International
   Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA); Norwegian Meteorological
   Institute
RP Schoenberg, W (corresponding author), Univ Bergen, Syst Dynam Grp, POB 7802, N-5020 Bergen, Norway.; Schoenberg, W (corresponding author), Isee Syst Inc, 24 Hanover St Suite 8A, Lebanon, NH 03766 USA.
EM bschoenberg@iseesystems.com
RI /G-7682-2019; Wells, Chris/OSI-4330-2025; Li, Chao/L-1915-2015; Rajah,
   Jefferson/AGC-4174-2022
OI Blanz, Benjamin/0000-0002-7830-7497; Ramme, Lennart/0000-0002-8307-2493;
   Wells, Chris/0000-0003-1958-0984; Nicolaidis Lindqvist,
   Andreas/0000-0002-6323-1397; Schoenberg, William/0000-0003-3529-1066;
   Li, Chao/0000-0003-2556-0891; Rajah, Jefferson/0000-0001-8365-0428
FU HORIZON EUROPE Climate, Energy and Mobility [101081661]; Horizon Europe
   - Pillar II [101081661] Funding Source: Horizon Europe - Pillar II
FX This research was supported by the Horizon Europe research and
   innovation programs under grant agreement no. 101081661 (WorldTrans).
   This work used resources of the Deutsches Klimarechenzentrum (DKRZ)
   granted by its Scientific Steering Committee (WLA) under project IDs
   0033 and 1275.
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NR 117
TC 5
Z9 5
U1 3
U2 8
PU COPERNICUS GESELLSCHAFT MBH
PI GOTTINGEN
PA BAHNHOFSALLEE 1E, GOTTINGEN, 37081, GERMANY
SN 1991-959X
EI 1991-9603
J9 GEOSCI MODEL DEV
JI Geosci. Model Dev.
PD OCT 30
PY 2025
VL 18
IS 21
BP 8047
EP 8069
DI 10.5194/gmd-18-8047-2025
PG 23
WC Geosciences, Multidisciplinary
WE Science Citation Index Expanded (SCI-EXPANDED)
SC Geology
GA 9DN4F
UT WOS:001603769000001
OA Green Submitted, gold
DA 2026-06-13
ER

PT J
AU Rajah, J
   Blanz, B
   Kopainsky, B
   Schoenberg, W
AF Rajah, Jefferson K.
   Blanz, Benjamin
   Kopainsky, Birgit
   Schoenberg, William
TI An endogenous modelling framework of dietary behavioural change in the
   fully coupled human-climate FRIDA v2.1 model
SO GEOSCIENTIFIC MODEL DEVELOPMENT
LA English
DT Article
ID DEMAND-SIDE SOLUTIONS; PROSPECT-THEORY; VALUES; DETERMINANTS;
   PERCEPTIONS; MITIGATION; EXPERIENCE; POLICY; NORMS; MEAT
AB Integrated assessment models (IAMs) occupy a central role in understanding and assessing the intricate interlinkages within the human-climate system for informing climate mitigation and adaptation strategies. However, there has been limited work on explicitly representing the internal social system dynamics that underlie human behavioural responses to climate change within IAMs. Instead, behavioural change and demand-side strategies are assessed with external, non-probabilistic narrative-based scenario analyses. In this paper, we introduce an alternative fully endogenous behavioural change modelling framework within the FRIDA v2.1 model, operationalized with the system dynamics method. Applied to the context of dietary behaviour, the framework models behavioural change as a function of perceived accessibility, descriptive norm, and personal norms, constrained by accessibility and past behaviour. By doing so, it captures the complex social-economic-cultural-environmental feedback processes within the human-climate system that dynamically determine per capita food demand and consumption. Our simulation results show that endogenizing human behaviour leads to lower future demand projections compared to the more prevalent GDP-driven modelling approach. This demonstrates the significant impact of behavioural feedbacks on emission behaviours and thus climate outcomes. Importantly, using an uncertainty approach, our results account for a range of plausible behaviours within the 95 % confidence bounds, which includes scenarios where we observe reversals of sustainable behavioural change in the future. We contribute to the limited work on human behaviour in IAMs, extending the complexity of current representations. Future work will extend this framework to other domains of high-impact behaviours, enhancing the robustness of IAMs for assessing demand-side mitigation.
C1 [Rajah, Jefferson K.; Kopainsky, Birgit; Schoenberg, William] Univ Bergen, Syst Dynam Grp, POB 7802, N-5020 Bergen, Norway.
   [Blanz, Benjamin] Univ Hamburg, Res Unit Sustainabil & Climate Risks, Grindelberg 5, D-20144 Hamburg, Germany.
   [Schoenberg, William] Isee Syst Inc, 24 Hanover St,Suite 8A, Lebanon, NH 03766 USA.
C3 University of Bergen; University of Hamburg
RP Rajah, J (corresponding author), Univ Bergen, Syst Dynam Grp, POB 7802, N-5020 Bergen, Norway.
EM jefferson.rajah@uib.no
RI ; Rajah, Jefferson/AGC-4174-2022; Kopainsky, Birgit/H-5091-2019
OI Schoenberg, William/0000-0003-3529-1066; Rajah,
   Jefferson/0000-0001-8365-0428; Kopainsky, Birgit/0000-0002-1271-8365;
   Blanz, Benjamin/0000-0002-7830-7497
FU HORIZON EUROPE Climate, Energy and Mobility
FX The authors would like to thank Benedikt Tusch and Gard Hammerseng for
   assisting with earlier research that informed this modelling framework;
   Chris Wells for input on extreme events representation; Alex Koberle for
   insights on the SSP framework; and other WorldTrans members who provided
   constructive feedback in consortium meetings. The uncertainty analysis
   ensembles were run using resources of the German Climate Computing
   Centre (DKRZ) with support from Lennart Ramme.
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NR 92
TC 5
Z9 5
U1 0
U2 2
PU COPERNICUS GESELLSCHAFT MBH
PI GOTTINGEN
PA BAHNHOFSALLEE 1E, GOTTINGEN, 37081, GERMANY
SN 1991-959X
EI 1991-9603
J9 GEOSCI MODEL DEV
JI Geosci. Model Dev.
PD SEP 16
PY 2025
VL 18
IS 18
BP 5997
EP 6022
DI 10.5194/gmd-18-5997-2025
PG 26
WC Geosciences, Multidisciplinary
WE Science Citation Index Expanded (SCI-EXPANDED)
SC Geology
GA 7II5D
UT WOS:001571716400001
OA Green Submitted, gold
DA 2026-06-13
ER

PT J
AU Crescenzi, P
   Gambosi, G
   Nasti, L
   Rossi, A
   Natale, E
AF Crescenzi, Pierluigi
   Gambosi, Giorgio
   Nasti, Lucia
   Rossi, Aurora
   Natale, Emanuele
TI A sensitivity analysis of the Earth for all model: Getting the
   giant leap scenario with fewer policies
SO JOURNAL OF INDUSTRIAL ECOLOGY
LA English
DT Article
DE computer simulation; integrated assessment model; limits to growth;
   local sensitivity analysis; system dynamics; Sobol analysis
ID SCIENCE; CLIMATE; GROWTH; LIMITS
AB Integrated assessment models (IAMs) are popular tools used to predict the evolution of human society, a challenging question that science has long tried to address. The World3 model is a popular IAM, designed in the seventies by several scientists convened by the Club of Rome and mostly known for its usage to analyze the so-called limits to growth. The recent Earth for all (E4A) model has been initiated by one of the major co-authors of the World3 model, J & oslash;rgen Randers. It is substantially more complicated than the relatively simple World3 model, and it has been used to compare two different and opposite world development scenarios: the too little too late scenario, in which current policies are assumed to continue, and the giant leap (GL) scenario, in which 21 policies related to five turnarounds are identified to produce significant improvements in six indicators of human well-being. By using global and local sensitivity analyses of the E4A model, we suggest that the evolution of the six indicators in the GL scenario can be approximately reached by focusing on just six policies and three turnarounds (namely, the energy, the inequality, and the poverty turnarounds). The evolution of the six indicators can be even improved by investing "reasonably" more on three of these six policies and by keeping unchanged the remaining three. From a methodological point of view, we exploit both global (Sobol) and local sensitivity analyses to identify the policies that most influence the six indicators, and we subsequently execute a scenario analysis of the identified policies to confirm that they can produce a similar (or even a better) evolution of the indicators themselves.
C1 [Crescenzi, Pierluigi; Nasti, Lucia] Gran Sasso Sci Inst, I-67100 Laquila, Italy.
   [Gambosi, Giorgio] Univ Roma Tor Vergata, Dipartimento Ingn Impresa Mario Lucertini, Rome, Italy.
   [Rossi, Aurora; Natale, Emanuele] Univ Cote Azur, I3S, COATI Team, Sophia Antipolis, France.
   [Rossi, Aurora; Natale, Emanuele] Univ Cote Azur, COATI Team, INRIA, Sophia Antipolis, France.
C3 Gran Sasso Science Institute (GSSI); University of Rome Tor Vergata;
   Universite Cote d'Azur; Universite Cote d'Azur; Inria
RP Crescenzi, P (corresponding author), Gran Sasso Sci Inst, I-67100 Laquila, Italy.
EM pierluigi.crescenzi@gssi.it
RI Gambosi, Giorgio/KIH-1713-2024; Rossi, Aurora/PSL-0987-2026; Natale,
   Emanuele/AAD-3548-2022
OI Natale, Emanuele/0000-0002-8755-3892
FU Ministero dell'Universita e della Ricerca [ARS01 00540]; Agence
   Nationale de la Recherche [ANR-15-IDEX-0001, ANR-17-EURE-0004];
   Universite Cpte d'Azur [AAP2-2022]; Agence Nationale de la Recherche
   (ANR) [ANR-17-EURE-0004, ANR-15-IDEX-0001] Funding Source: Agence
   Nationale de la Recherche (ANR)
FX Ministero dell'Universita e della Ricerca, Grant/Award Number: ARS01
   00540; Agence Nationale de la Recherche, Grant/Award Numbers:
   ANR-15-IDEX-0001, ANR-17-EURE-0004; Universite Cpte d'Azur, Grant/Award
   Number: AAP2-2022
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EI 1530-9290
J9 J IND ECOL
JI J. Ind. Ecol.
PD DEC
PY 2024
VL 28
IS 6
BP 1481
EP 1492
DI 10.1111/jiec.13582
PG 12
WC Green & Sustainable Science & Technology; Engineering, Environmental;
   Environmental Sciences
WE Science Citation Index Expanded (SCI-EXPANDED)
SC Science & Technology - Other Topics; Engineering; Environmental Sciences
   & Ecology
GA Q1A8C
UT WOS:001382108400001
OA Green Submitted, hybrid
DA 2026-06-13
ER

PT J
AU Feder, C
   Callegari, B
   Collste, D
AF Feder, Christophe
   Callegari, Beniamino
   Collste, David
TI The system dynamics approach for a global evolutionary analysis of
   sustainable development
SO JOURNAL OF EVOLUTIONARY ECONOMICS
LA English
DT Article
DE Sustainability; Co-evolution; Systems approach; Macro-selection;
   Co-selection; Q01; E14; E17; F01
ID CLIMATE-CHANGE; COMPLEXITY; INNOVATION; ECONOMICS; SELECTION; POLICY;
   CAPABILITIES; PERSPECTIVE; ENVIRONMENT; GENERATION
AB The challenge of pursuing sustainable development highlights the relevance of the complex mechanisms through which natural and social selection processes affect and are affected by the economic system. Current economic development is unsustainable because it fails to generate long-term systemic compatibility between firms and their natural and social environment. This paper evaluates the issue from an evolutionary perspective by conceptualising unsustainability as the emergence of negative macro-selection effects, arising from both the natural and social domains, and argues for a methodological need for closer integration of system dynamics modelling within the evolutionary field. The Earth4All model is then used to illustrate the complex interactions between economic, social, and natural selection processes. The model results illustrate that the current global development trajectory is strongly unsustainable from both a natural and a social perspective, leading to the emergence of relevant natural and social macro-selection mechanisms, whose systemic interactions bring further complex adverse effects.
C1 [Feder, Christophe] Aosta Valley Univ, Econ & Polit Sci Dept, Aosta, Italy.
   [Callegari, Beniamino] Kristiania, Sch Econ Innovat & Technol, Oslo, Norway.
   [Callegari, Beniamino] Oslo New Univ Coll, Oslo, Norway.
   [Collste, David] Stockholm Univ, Stockholm Resilience Ctr, Stockholm, Sweden.
C3 Universita Della Valle D'aosta; Stockholm University
RP Callegari, B (corresponding author), Kristiania, Sch Econ Innovat & Technol, Oslo, Norway.; Callegari, B (corresponding author), Oslo New Univ Coll, Oslo, Norway.
EM ben.callegari@kristiania.no
RI Feder, Christophe/AHC-3437-2022; Collste, David/GWV-1693-2022
OI Callegari, Beniamino/0000-0001-5513-7299
FU Kristiania University; Club of Rome; Mistra-the Swedish Foundation for
   Strategic Environmental Research [DIA 2019/28]; Formas-a Swedish
   Research Council for Sustainable Development [2021-00416];  [PRIN
   B53D23010030008]
FX Open access funding provided by Kristiania University. College Partial
   financial support was received from the Club of Rome, as part of the
   Earth4All project. David Collste was also partially supported by
   Mistra-the Swedish Foundation for Strategic Environmental Research (DIA
   2019/28) and Formas-a Swedish Research Council for Sustainable
   Development, as part of the national research pro-gramme on climate
   (project number 2021-00416). Christophe Feder was also partially
   supported by the research project PRIN B53D23010030008.
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NR 153
TC 4
Z9 4
U1 0
U2 7
PU SPRINGER
PI NEW YORK
PA ONE NEW YORK PLAZA, SUITE 4600, NEW YORK, NY, UNITED STATES
SN 0936-9937
EI 1432-1386
J9 J EVOL ECON
JI J. Evol. Econ.
PD APR
PY 2024
VL 34
IS 2
BP 351
EP 374
DI 10.1007/s00191-024-00866-6
EA JUL 2024
PG 24
WC Economics
WE Social Science Citation Index (SSCI)
SC Business & Economics
GA ZV6X9
UT WOS:001275421100001
OA hybrid
DA 2026-06-13
ER

PT J
AU Ye, QL
   Liu, Q
   Swamy, D
   Gao, L
   Moallemi, EA
   Rydzak, F
   Eker, S
AF Ye, Quanliang
   Liu, Qi
   Swamy, Deepthi
   Gao, Lei
   Moallemi, Enayat A.
   Rydzak, Felicjan
   Eker, Sibel
TI FeliX 2.0: An integrated model of climate, economy, environment, and
   society interactions
SO ENVIRONMENTAL MODELLING & SOFTWARE
LA English
DT Article
DE System dynamics; Integrated assessment model; Global trajectories;
   Sustainable development; Global modelling; Scenarios
ID PHOSPHORUS; POLICY
AB The Full of Economic-Environment Linkages and Integration dX/dt (FeliX) model is a System Dynamics-based Integrated Assessment Model (IAM), explicitly incorporating human behaviors and their dynamic interactions among global systems. This paper presents FeliX 2.0, describing the detailed framework and key interactions among nine integrated modules. FeliX 2.0 refined its original version in population dynamics, food and land use systems, and socioeconomic settings for poverty analysis. Robust calibration is applied to key variables against their historical data since 1950. Future projections of multiple variables up to 2100 demonstrate coherences between FeliX 2.0 and the IAMs used in IPCC assessments. Both outputs (the robust calibration results and future projections) underscore the efficacy of FeliX 2.0 in capturing complex interdependencies within global systems. FeliX 2.0 stands as an informative tool and offers insights into interactions within the human-Earth system and the analysis of complex economic-environmental-social challenges in short- and long-term future.
C1 [Ye, Quanliang; Eker, Sibel] Radboud Univ Nijmegen, Nijmegen Sch Management, NL-6525 XZ Nijmegen, Netherlands.
   [Liu, Qi] Sichuan Univ, Business Sch, Chengdu, Peoples R China.
   [Swamy, Deepthi; Eker, Sibel] Int Inst Appl Syst Anal IIASA, A-2361 Laxenburg, Austria.
   [Gao, Lei] Commonwealth Sci & Ind Res Org CSIRO, Waite Campus, Urrbrae, SA 5064, Australia.
   [Moallemi, Enayat A.] Commonwealth Sci & Ind Res Org CSIRO, Melbourne, Australia.
   [Rydzak, Felicjan] Felix Consultancy, Wroclaw, Poland.
C3 Radboud University Nijmegen; Sichuan University; International Institute
   for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA); Commonwealth Scientific &
   Industrial Research Organisation (CSIRO); Commonwealth Scientific &
   Industrial Research Organisation (CSIRO)
RP Eker, S (corresponding author), Radboud Univ Nijmegen, Nijmegen Sch Management, NL-6525 XZ Nijmegen, Netherlands.
EM sibel.eker@ru.nl
RI Eker, Sibel/HHS-4681-2022; Moallemi, Enayat A/D-5758-2015; Ye,
   Quanliang/GOV-5427-2022
OI Moallemi, Enayat A/0000-0001-8346-4043; Ye,
   Quanliang/0000-0002-6135-3403; Liu, Qi/0000-0002-3000-7559
FU Horizon Europe research and innovation programs [101081661]; Horizon
   Europe - Pillar II [101081661] Funding Source: Horizon Europe - Pillar
   II
FX <STRONG> </STRONG>This research was supported by Horizon Europe research
   and innovation programs under grant agreement no. 101081661 (WorldTrans)
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NR 81
TC 8
Z9 10
U1 6
U2 28
PU ELSEVIER SCI LTD
PI London
PA 125 London Wall, London, ENGLAND
SN 1364-8152
EI 1873-6726
J9 ENVIRON MODELL SOFTW
JI Environ. Modell. Softw.
PD AUG
PY 2024
VL 179
AR 106121
DI 10.1016/j.envsoft.2024.106121
EA JUN 2024
PG 16
WC Computer Science, Interdisciplinary Applications; Engineering,
   Environmental; Environmental Sciences; Water Resources
WE Science Citation Index Expanded (SCI-EXPANDED)
SC Computer Science; Engineering; Environmental Sciences & Ecology; Water
   Resources
GA XB6J4
UT WOS:001259259600001
OA Green Submitted, hybrid
DA 2026-06-13
ER

PT J
AU Calheiros, T
   Beca, P
   Lourenço, TC
   Eggler, L
   Mediavilla, M
   Ferreras-Alonso, N
   Ramos-Diez, I
   Samsó, R
   Distefano, T
   Pastor, A
AF Calheiros, Tomas
   Beca, Pedro
   Capela Lourenco, Tiago
   Eggler, Lukas
   Mediavilla, Margarita
   Ferreras-Alonso, Noelia
   Ramos-Diez, Ivan
   Samso, Roger
   Distefano, Tiziano
   Pastor, Amandine
TI Assessing Hydropower Potential under Shared Socioeconomic Pathways
   Scenarios Using Integrated Assessment Modelling
SO SUSTAINABILITY
LA English
DT Article
DE hydropower potential; IAM (Integrated Assessment Models); SSPs (Shared
   Socioeconomic Pathways); renewable energy; climate change impacts;
   mitigation and adaptation
ID CLIMATE-CHANGE; IMPACTS; GENERATION; POWER
AB The world is facing a global sustainability crisis affecting environmental systems and society. Addressing these issues requires a multi-dimensional approach that can integrate energy, water, and environment Systems, as well as provide scientific policy advice. In this study, an updated version of an Integrated Assessment Model (IAM) was used, together with new data compatible with Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) projections, to significantly improve the work developed before. SSP climate data (temperature, precipitation, and total radiative forcing) and socioeconomic data (population and GDP) were loaded into the IAM, together with different scenario parameters. By analyzing varying socioeconomic scenarios, mitigation efforts, and adaptation strategies, this study assesses their impact on primary energy demand and, consequently, their impact on hydropower potential production. Our results show diverse energy paths, strongly dependent on the future scenario. Energy demand could increase up to 160%; however, several projections foresee a decline in hydropower production to minus 46% due to both climate change and socioeconomic transformation. Our findings highlight the importance of considering a range of potential future scenarios in energy planning and policy development. The varied outcomes across the considered scenarios emphasize the need for flexibility in strategies to accommodate for uncertainties and address the challenges posed by divergent trajectories in hydropower use and renewable energy shares.
C1 [Calheiros, Tomas; Beca, Pedro; Capela Lourenco, Tiago] Univ Lisbon FCUL U Lisboa, Fac Sci, cE3c Ctr Ecol Evolut & Environm Changes, P-1749016 Lisbon, Portugal.
   [Eggler, Lukas] Austrian Energy Agcy, A-1150 Vienna, Austria.
   [Mediavilla, Margarita; Ferreras-Alonso, Noelia] Univ Valladolid, Grp Energy Econ & Syst Dynam GEEDS, Valladolid 47011, Spain.
   [Ferreras-Alonso, Noelia; Ramos-Diez, Ivan] Ctr Tecnol CARTIF, Parque Tecnol Boecillo, Boecillo 47151, Spain.
   [Samso, Roger] Ctr Ecol Res & Forestry Applicat CREAF, Campus UAB, Barcelona 08193, Spain.
   [Distefano, Tiziano] Univ Florence, Dept Econ & Energy, I-50144 Florence, Italy.
   [Pastor, Amandine] French Natl Res Inst Agr Food & Environm INRAE, F-34000 Montpellier, France.
C3 Universidade de Lisboa; Universidad de Valladolid; Centro de
   Investigacion Ecologica y Aplicaciones Forestales (CREAF-CERCA);
   Autonomous University of Barcelona; University of Barcelona; University
   of Florence; INRAE
RP Calheiros, T (corresponding author), Univ Lisbon FCUL U Lisboa, Fac Sci, cE3c Ctr Ecol Evolut & Environm Changes, P-1749016 Lisbon, Portugal.
EM tlmenezes@fc.ul.pt; pmbeca@fc.ul.pt; tcapela@fc.ul.pt;
   lukas.eggler@energyagency.at; mmediavilla@uva.es; noefer@cartif.es;
   ivaram@cartif.es; r.samso@creaf.uab.cat; amandine.pastor22@gmail.com
RI Samsó, Roger/AAK-7708-2021; Distefano, Tiziano/AAR-2458-2021; Calheiros,
   Tomás/O-7682-2015; /G-7974-2017; Capela Lourenço, Tiago/B-4947-2008;
   Ramos, Iván/F-1540-2016; Beça, Peo/ISA-7579-2023
OI Samsó, Roger/0000-0003-0348-3047; Distefano,
   Tiziano/0000-0002-1593-6480; Calheiros, Tomás/0000-0002-8240-3502;
   Capela Lourenço, Tiago/0000-0002-8796-5993; Ramos,
   Iván/0000-0002-6296-2235; Beça, Peo/0000-0003-3821-0807;
   Ferreras-Alonso, Noelia/0000-0003-2843-6853; Pastor,
   Amandine/0000-0003-4526-7705
FU Fundao para a Cincia e Tecnologia (FCT) [UIDB/00329/2020]
FX T.C., P.B. and T.C.L. acknowledge the support they received from
   cE3c-Center for Ecology, Evolution and Environmental Change through the
   strategic project UIDB/00329/2020, & CHANGE-Global Change and
   Sustainability Institute, Faculty of Sciences, University of Lisbon
   (FCUL/ULisboa), Portugal.
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NR 47
TC 6
Z9 6
U1 1
U2 18
PU MDPI
PI BASEL
PA MDPI AG, Grosspeteranlage 5, CH-4052 BASEL, SWITZERLAND
EI 2071-1050
J9 SUSTAINABILITY-BASEL
JI Sustainability
PD FEB
PY 2024
VL 16
IS 4
AR 1548
DI 10.3390/su16041548
PG 15
WC Green & Sustainable Science & Technology; Environmental Sciences;
   Environmental Studies
WE Science Citation Index Expanded (SCI-EXPANDED); Social Science Citation Index (SSCI)
SC Science & Technology - Other Topics; Environmental Sciences & Ecology
GA IT0B8
UT WOS:001168454000001
OA Green Submitted, gold
DA 2026-06-13
ER

PT J
AU Herbert, É
   Giraud, G
   Louis-Napoléon, A
   Goupil, C
AF Herbert, Eric
   Giraud, Gael
   Louis-Napoleon, Aurelie
   Goupil, Christophe
TI Macroeconomic dynamics in a finite world based on thermodynamic
   potential
SO SCIENTIFIC REPORTS
LA English
DT Article
ID GROWTH; ECONOMICS; MODELS; SOLOW/STIGLITZ; CONSUMPTION; RESOURCES
AB This paper presents a conceptual model describing the medium and long term co-evolution of natural and socio-economic subsystems of Earth. An economy is viewed as an out-of-equilibrium dissipative structure that can only be maintained with a flow of energy and matter. The distinctive approach emphasized here consists in capturing the economic impact of natural ecosystems' depletion by human activities via a pinch of thermodynamic potentials. This viewpoint allows: (i) the full-blown integration of a limited quantity of primary resources into a non-linear macrodynamics that is stock-flow consistent both in terms of matter-energy and economic transactions; (ii) the inclusion of natural and forced recycling; (iii) the inclusion of a friction term which reflects the impossibility to produce (and recycle)goods and services without exuding energy and matter wastes, and (iv) the computation of the anthropically produced entropy as a function of metabolizing intensity and frictions. Analysis and numerical computations confirm the role played by intensity and frictions as key factors for sustainability by contrast with real gdp growth-as well as the interplay between resource scarcity, income inequality, and inflation. A more egalitarian society with moderate inflation turns out to be more sustainable than an unequal society with low inflation. Our approach is flexible enough to allow for various economic models to be embedded into our thermodynamic framework. Finally, we propose the open source ECODYCO software as a first complete realization implementing economic dynamics in a multi-resource environment.
C1 [Herbert, Eric; Louis-Napoleon, Aurelie; Goupil, Christophe] Univ Paris Cite, CNRS, LIED, UMR 8236, F-75013 Paris, France.
   [Giraud, Gael] Georgetown Univ, McCourt Sch Publ Policy, Environm Justice Program, Washington, DC USA.
   [Giraud, Gael; Louis-Napoleon, Aurelie] Chaire Energie & Prosperite, Paris, France.
C3 Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS); CNRS - Institute
   for Humanities & Social Sciences (INSHS); Universite Paris Cite;
   Georgetown University
RP Herbert, É (corresponding author), Univ Paris Cite, CNRS, LIED, UMR 8236, F-75013 Paris, France.
EM eric.herbert@u-paris.fr
FU Chaire Energie et Prosperite
FX This work was funded by Chaire Energie et Prosperite,
   http://www.chair-energy-prosperity.org/en/.The authors would like to
   thank Henri Benisty and Louison Cahen-Fourot for fruitfull discussions.
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NR 113
TC 4
Z9 4
U1 0
U2 4
PU NATURE PORTFOLIO
PI BERLIN
PA HEIDELBERGER PLATZ 3, BERLIN, 14197, GERMANY
SN 2045-2322
J9 SCI REP-UK
JI Sci Rep
PD OCT 21
PY 2023
VL 13
IS 1
AR 18020
DI 10.1038/s41598-023-44699-y
PG 27
WC Multidisciplinary Sciences
WE Science Citation Index Expanded (SCI-EXPANDED)
SC Science & Technology - Other Topics
GA EK0T0
UT WOS:001138708200003
PM 37865677
OA Green Submitted, gold
DA 2026-06-13
ER

PT J
AU Moyer, JD
AF Moyer, Jonathan D.
TI Modeling transformational policy pathways on low growth and negative
   growth scenarios to assess impacts on socioeconomic development and
   carbon emissions
SO SCIENTIFIC REPORTS
LA English
DT Article
ID CLIMATE-CHANGE; INTERNATIONAL-ORGANIZATIONS; DEGROWTH TRANSITION;
   PROJECTIONS; HEALTH; LEVEL; PEACE
AB Degrowth advocates argue for structural transformations in how economies and societies prioritize material wealth accumulation to reduce the negative effects of future anthropogenic climate change. Degrowth proponents argue that human economic activity could be lessened, and societies transformed to prioritize improved wellbeing, reducing the threat of climate change. This paper explores implications of alternative patterns of economic growth with transformational policy pathways (i.e., redistribution) to assess what effects economic growth and broader policies have on changing patterns of human development across both the Global North and South. Using the International Futures model, this article shows that negative growth and societal transformations in the Global North are possible without dramatically damaging long-term global socioeconomic development, though these interventions do not solve the global climate crisis, reducing future cumulative carbon emissions by 10.5% through 2100. On the other hand, a global negative growth scenario will significantly reduce future cumulative carbon emissions (45%) but also dramatically undermines the pursuit of global development goals, like the elimination of poverty. Even with global policies that significantly increase cash transfers to the poor and retired, dramatically improve income inequality, and eliminate military spending, the Global Negative Growth Big Push scenario leads to an increase of 15 percentage points in global extreme poverty by 2100.
C1 [Moyer, Jonathan D.] Univ Denver, Denver, CO 80210 USA.
C3 University of Denver
RP Moyer, JD (corresponding author), Univ Denver, Denver, CO 80210 USA.
EM jmoyer@du.edu
RI Moyer, Jonathan/ABF-9518-2020
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NR 99
TC 16
Z9 16
U1 0
U2 4
PU NATURE PORTFOLIO
PI BERLIN
PA HEIDELBERGER PLATZ 3, BERLIN, 14197, GERMANY
SN 2045-2322
J9 SCI REP-UK
JI Sci Rep
PD SEP 25
PY 2023
VL 13
IS 1
AR 15996
DI 10.1038/s41598-023-42782-y
PG 15
WC Multidisciplinary Sciences
WE Science Citation Index Expanded (SCI-EXPANDED)
SC Science & Technology - Other Topics
GA AD6I3
UT WOS:001116558400032
PM 37749151
OA Green Submitted
DA 2026-06-13
ER

PT J
AU Breach, PA
   Simonovic, SP
AF Breach, Patrick A.
   Simonovic, Slobodan P.
TI ANEMI3: An updated tool for global change analysis
SO PLOS ONE
LA English
DT Article
ID WATER; CARBON
AB The ANEMI model is an integrated assessment model of global change that emphasizes the role of water resources. The model is based on the principles of system dynamics simulation to analyze changes in the Earth system using feedback processes. Securing water resources for the future is a key issue of global change, and ties into global systems of population growth, climate change, carbon cycle, hydrologic cycle, economy, energy production, land use and pollution generation. Here the third iteration of the model-ANEMI3 is described, along with the methods used for parameter estimation and model testing. The main differences between ANEMI3 and previous versions include: (i) implementation of the energy-economy system based on the principles of system dynamics simulation; (ii) incorporation of water supply as an additional sector in the global economy that parallels the production of energy; (iii) inclusion of climate change effects on land yield and potentially arable land for food production, and (iv) addition of nitrogen and phosphorus based nutrient cycles as indicators of global water quality, which affect the development of surface water supplies. The model is intended for analyzing long-term global feedbacks which drive global change. Because of this, there are limitations related to the spatial scale that is used. However, the model's simplicity can be considered a strength, as it allows for the driving feedbacks to be more easily identified. The model in its current form allows for a variety of scenarios to be created to address global issues such as climate change from an integrated perspective, or to examine the change in one model sector on Earth system behaviour. The endogenous structure of the model allows for global change to be driven entirely by model structure rather than exogenous inputs. The new additions to the ANEMI3 model are found to capture long term trends associated with global change, while allowing for the development of water supplies to be represented using an integrated approach considering global economy and surface water quality.
C1 [Breach, Patrick A.; Simonovic, Slobodan P.] Western Univ, Dept Civil & Environm Engn, London, ON, Canada.
C3 Western University (University of Western Ontario)
RP Breach, PA (corresponding author), Western Univ, Dept Civil & Environm Engn, London, ON, Canada.
EM pbreach@uwo.ca
FU Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada - NSERC
FX Work presented in this paper has been supported by the Natural Sciences
   and Engineering Research Council of Canada - NSERC Discovery Grant to
   the second author.
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PD MAY 10
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VL 16
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DI 10.1371/journal.pone.0251489
PG 37
WC Multidisciplinary Sciences
WE Science Citation Index Expanded (SCI-EXPANDED)
SC Science & Technology - Other Topics
GA SW6LC
UT WOS:000664624400051
PM 33970952
OA Green Submitted, gold
DA 2026-06-13
ER

PT J
AU Pulido-Sánchez, D
   Capellán-Pérez, I
   Mediavilla-Pascual, M
   de-Castro-Carranza, C
   Frechoso-Escudero, F
AF Pulido-Sanchez, Daniel
   Capellan-Perez, Inigo
   Mediavilla-Pascual, Margarita
   de-Castro-Carranza, Carlos
   Frechoso-Escudero, Fernando
TI Analysis of the material requirements of global electrical mobility
SO DYNA
LA English
DT Article
DE Transport modes; mineral resources; system dynamics; lithium-ion
   batteries
AB Today, we are witnesses to the early days of a change in mobility technology as oil reserves decline and society's environmental awareness increases. Electric technologies are intended to replace those based on hydrocarbons as they have been initially conceived as more environmentally friendly and energy efficient. However, the problem of the future availability of the materials required for this change has arisen. A large demand for this type of mobility could contribute to the depletion of these resources, leading to major problems for the manufacture of vehicles and all other technologies that use these materials if we do not find alternatives that allow us not to deplete these natural resources. These alternatives may involve not only a change in the materials used in electric vehicles but also the use of different modes of transport.
   The MEDEAS system dynamics simulation model will be used to help us estimate which materials related to the transition in the transport sector might be most critical in the future globally. Once the simulations of different scenarios have been run, we observe that aluminum, copper, cobalt, lithium, manganese and nickel have such a high demand that it would practically exhaust the reserves in several scenarios, so we will propose alternative measures to try to avoid their exhaustion due to the use of this type of mobility.
C1 [Pulido-Sanchez, Daniel] Univ Valladolid, EII, Grp Energia Econ & Dinam Sistemas GEEDS, Paseo Cauce 59, Valladolid 47011, Spain.
   [Capellan-Perez, Inigo] Univ Valladolid, Dept Ingn Sistemas & Automat, EII, Paseo Cauce 59, Valladolid 47011, Spain.
   [Mediavilla-Pascual, Margarita] Univ Valladolid, Dept Ingn Elect, EII, Paseo Cauce 59, Valladolid 47011, Spain.
   [de-Castro-Carranza, Carlos] Univ Valladolid, Escuela Arquitectura, Dept Fis Aplicada, Av Salamanca 18, Valladolid 47014, Spain.
C3 Universidad de Valladolid; Universidad de Valladolid; Universidad de
   Valladolid; Universidad de Valladolid
RP Pulido-Sánchez, D (corresponding author), Univ Valladolid, EII, Grp Energia Econ & Dinam Sistemas GEEDS, Paseo Cauce 59, Valladolid 47011, Spain.
RI Frechoso Escudero, Fernando A/L-4302-2014; Capellán-Pérez,
   Iñigo/H-6069-2015; Mediavilla, Margarita/G-7974-2017
OI Frechoso Escudero, Fernando A/0000-0002-1119-9217; Pulido Sánchez,
   Daniel/0000-0003-3234-0299; Capellán-Pérez, Iñigo/0000-0002-3098-8027;
   Mediavilla, Margarita/0000-0002-9898-7573
FU Basque Government University Groups [IT1337-19]; minecor Challenges
   NewMine ministry project [RTC-2017-6039-5]
FX Also, support for Basque Government University Groups IT1337-19, and
   minecor Challenges NewMine ministry project: RTC-2017-6039-5
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NR 23
TC 4
Z9 5
U1 0
U2 14
PU FEDERACION ASOCIACIONES INGENIEROS INDUSTRIALES ESPANA
PI BILBAO
PA ALAMEDA DE MAZARREDO, BILBAO, 69-48009, SPAIN
SN 0012-7361
EI 1989-1490
J9 DYNA-BILBAO
JI Dyna
PD MAR
PY 2021
VL 96
IS 2
BP 207
EP 213
DI 10.6036/9893
PG 7
WC Engineering, Multidisciplinary
WE Science Citation Index Expanded (SCI-EXPANDED)
SC Engineering
GA QP6XC
UT WOS:000623976500021
DA 2026-06-13
ER

PT J
AU Simonovic, SP
   Breach, PA
AF Simonovic, Slobodan P.
   Breach, Patrick A.
TI The Role of Water Supply Development in the Earth System
SO WATER
LA English
DT Article
DE global change; integrated assessment modelling; system dynamics
   simulation; water resources management; water supply; climate change;
   earth system; feedback
ID FUTURE
AB The ANEMI model is an integrated assessment model of global change that emphasizes the role of water resources. Securing water resources for the future is a key issue of global change and ties into global systems of population growth, climate change carbon cycle, hydrologic cycle, economy, energy production, land use and pollution generation. The focus of the presented work is on the development of global water supplies necessary to keep pace with a growing population and global economy. With the structure of the ANEMI model, a series of experiments are conducted in order to assess: (i) the current role of water supply in the global Earth system; (ii) the level of water stress that can be expected in the future; and (iii) what are the potential effects of water quality on global surface water supply and the distribution of water supply types. The results of model simulations show that surface water resources were sufficient to meet the water demand and water quality is not shown to be a significant factor for the development of surface water supplies. Due to globally aggregated scale, these impacts are averaged and likely understated.
C1 [Simonovic, Slobodan P.; Breach, Patrick A.] Univ Western Ontario, Dept Civil & Environm Engn, London, ON N6A 3K7, Canada.
C3 Western University (University of Western Ontario)
RP Simonovic, SP (corresponding author), Univ Western Ontario, Dept Civil & Environm Engn, London, ON N6A 3K7, Canada.
EM simonovic@uwo.ca; pbreach@uwo.ca
RI Simonovic, Slobodan/R-7250-2017
OI Simonovic, Slobodan/0000-0001-5072-2915
FU Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada
FX This research has been funded by the Discovery Grant to the first author
   by the Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada.
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NR 24
TC 15
Z9 17
U1 2
U2 63
PU MDPI
PI BASEL
PA MDPI AG, Grosspeteranlage 5, CH-4052 BASEL, SWITZERLAND
EI 2073-4441
J9 WATER-SUI
JI Water
PD DEC
PY 2020
VL 12
IS 12
AR 3349
DI 10.3390/w12123349
PG 19
WC Environmental Sciences; Water Resources
WE Science Citation Index Expanded (SCI-EXPANDED)
SC Environmental Sciences & Ecology; Water Resources
GA PL1GR
UT WOS:000602879800001
OA Green Submitted, gold
DA 2026-06-13
ER

PT J
AU de Blas, I
   Mediavilla, M
   Capellán-Pérez, I
   Duce, C
AF de Blas, Ignacio
   Mediavilla, Margarita
   Capellan-Perez, Inigo
   Duce, Carmen
TI The limits of transport decarbonization under the current growth
   paradigm
SO ENERGY STRATEGY REVIEWS
LA English
DT Article
DE Energy transition; Decarbonization; Electric vehicles; Lithium; Degrowth
ID WORLD OIL PRODUCTION; NATURAL-GAS; SUPPLY CONSTRAINTS; ENERGY;
   TRANSITION; FUTURE; MITIGATION; BIOFUELS; PEAK; REQUIREMENTS
AB Achieving ambitious reductions in greenhouse gases (GHG) is particularly challenging for transportation due to the technical limitations of replacing oil-based fuels. We apply the integrated assessment model MEDEAS-World to study four global transportation decarbonization strategies for 2050. The results show that a massive replacement of oil-fueled individual vehicles to electric ones alone cannot deliver GHG reductions consistent with climate stabilization and could result in the scarcity of some key minerals, such as lithium and magnesium. In addition, energy-economy feedbacks within an economic growth system create a rebound effect that counters the benefits of substitution. The only strategy that can achieve the objectives globally follows the Degrowth paradigm, combining a quick and radical shift to lighter electric vehicles and non-motorized modes with a drastic reduction in total transportation demand.
C1 [de Blas, Ignacio; Mediavilla, Margarita; Capellan-Perez, Inigo; Duce, Carmen] Univ Valladolid GEEDS, Grp Energy Econ & Syst Dynam, Valladolid, Spain.
   [de Blas, Ignacio; Mediavilla, Margarita] Univ Valladolid, Dept Syst Engn & Automat Control, Escuela Ingn Ind, Paseo Cauce S-N, Valladolid 47011, Spain.
C3 Universidad de Valladolid
RP de Blas, I (corresponding author), Univ Valladolid GEEDS, Grp Energy Econ & Syst Dynam, Valladolid, Spain.
EM ignaciodeblas@eii.uva.es
RI Mediavilla, Margarita/G-7974-2017; de Blas Sanz, Ignacio/AAC-6413-2020;
   Capellán-Pérez, Iñigo/H-6069-2015
OI Mediavilla, Margarita/0000-0002-9898-7573; de Blas Sanz,
   Ignacio/0000-0002-4827-3839; Capellán-Pérez, Iñigo/0000-0002-3098-8027
FU European Union [691287, 821105]; MODESLOW (Modeling and Simulation of
   scenarios towards a LOW-carbon transition: The Spanish case), a Spanish
   national research project under the Spanish National Research,
   Development and Innovation Program (Ministry of Economy and
   Competitiveness of Spain [ECO2017-85110-R]; Ministry of Economy and
   Competitiveness of Spain [FJCI-2016-28833]
FX This work has been partially developed under the MEDEAS and LOCOMOTION
   projects, funded by the European Union's Horizon 2020 research and
   innovation programme under grant agreement no 691287 and 821105,
   respectively. The authors are thankful as well for the support of
   MODESLOW (Modeling and Simulation of scenarios towards a LOW-carbon
   transition: The Spanish case), a Spanish national research project
   funded under the Spanish National Research, Development and Innovation
   Program (Ministry of Economy and Competitiveness of Spain, ref.
   ECO2017-85110-R). Ifiigo Capellan-Perez acknowledges financial support
   from the Juan de la Cierva Research Fellowship of the Ministry of
   Economy and Competitiveness of Spain (no. FJCI-2016-28833). We thank
   Antonio Garcia-Olivares for support with the collection of the transport
   data, as well as the whole Group of Energy, Economy and Dynamics Systems
   (GEEDS) of the University of Valladolid for indirectly contributing to
   this work during group discussions, and in particular to Fernando
   Frechoso and Gaspar Manzanera for their valuable inputs and comments on
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NR 160
TC 129
Z9 147
U1 1
U2 55
PU ELSEVIER
PI AMSTERDAM
PA RADARWEG 29, 1043 NX AMSTERDAM, NETHERLANDS
SN 2211-467X
EI 2211-4688
J9 ENERGY STRATEG REV
JI Energy Strateg. Rev.
PD NOV
PY 2020
VL 32
AR 100543
DI 10.1016/j.esr.2020.100543
PG 23
WC Energy & Fuels
WE Science Citation Index Expanded (SCI-EXPANDED); Social Science Citation Index (SSCI)
SC Energy & Fuels
GA PH4EC
UT WOS:000600367100006
OA Green Submitted, gold
DA 2026-06-13
ER

PT J
AU Capellán-Pérez, I
   de Blas, I
   Nieto, J
   de Castro, C
   Miguel, LJ
   Carpintero, O
   Mediavilla, M
   Lobejón, LF
   Ferreras-Alonso, N
   Rodrigo, P
   Frechoso, F
   Alvarez-Antelo, D
AF Capellan-Perez, Inigo
   de Blas, Ignacio
   Nieto, Jaime
   de Castro, Carlos
   Javier Miguel, Luis
   Carpintero, Oscar
   Mediavilla, Margarita
   Fernando Lobejon, Luis
   Ferreras-Alonso, Noelia
   Rodrigo, Paula
   Frechoso, Fernando
   Alvarez-Antelo, David
TI MEDEAS: a new modeling framework integrating global biophysical and
   socioeconomic constraints
SO ENERGY & ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCE
LA English
DT Article
ID PHOTOVOLTAIC SOLAR-SYSTEMS; ENERGY INVESTED EROEI; RENEWABLE ENERGY;
   WIND POWER; LAND REQUIREMENTS; TIPPING POINTS; CARBON-CYCLE;
   FOSSIL-FUELS; PART 1; RETURN
AB A diversity of integrated assessment models (IAMs) coexists due to the different approaches developed to deal with the complex interactions, high uncertainties and knowledge gaps within the environment and human societies. This paper describes the open-source MEDEAS modeling framework, which has been developed with the aim of informing decision-making to achieve the transition to sustainable energy systems with a focus on biophysical, economic, social and technological restrictions and tackling some of the limitations identified in the current IAMs. MEDEAS models include the following relevant characteristics: representation of biophysical constraints to energy availability; modeling of the mineral and energy investments for the energy transition, allowing a dynamic assessment of the potential mineral scarcities and computation of the net energy available to society; consistent representation of climate change damages with climate assessments by natural scientists; integration of detailed sectoral economic structure (input-output analysis) within a system dynamics approach; energy shifts driven by physical scarcity; and a rich set of socioeconomic and environmental impact indicators. The potentialities and novel insights that this framework brings are illustrated by the simulation of four variants of current trends with the MEDEAS-world model: the consideration of alternative plausible assumptions and methods, combined with the feedback-rich structure of the model, reveal dynamics and implications absent in classical models. Our results suggest that the continuation of current trends will drive significant biophysical scarcities and impacts which will most likely derive in regionalization (priority to security concerns and trade barriers), conflict, and ultimately, a severe global crisis which may lead to the collapse of our modern civilization. Despite depicting a much more worrying future than conventional projections of current trends, we however believe it is a more realistic counterfactual scenario that will allow the design of improved alternative sustainable pathways in future work.
C1 [Capellan-Perez, Inigo; de Blas, Ignacio; Nieto, Jaime; de Castro, Carlos; Javier Miguel, Luis; Carpintero, Oscar; Mediavilla, Margarita; Fernando Lobejon, Luis; Rodrigo, Paula; Frechoso, Fernando; Alvarez-Antelo, David] Univ Valladolid, Res Grp Energy Econ & Syst Dynam, Escuela Ingenierias Ind, Paseo Cauce S-N, E-47011 Valladolid, Spain.
   [Capellan-Perez, Inigo; de Blas, Ignacio; Javier Miguel, Luis; Mediavilla, Margarita] Univ Valladolid, Dept Syst Engn & Automat Control, Escuela Ingenierias Ind, Paseo Cauce S-N, E-47011 Valladolid, Spain.
   [Nieto, Jaime; Carpintero, Oscar; Fernando Lobejon, Luis] Univ Valladolid, Dept Appl Econ, Av Valle Esgueva 6, Valladolid, Spain.
   [de Castro, Carlos] Univ Valladolid, Dept Appl Phys, Escuela Arquitectura, Av Salamanca 18, Valladolid 47014, Spain.
   [Ferreras-Alonso, Noelia] CARTIF Fdn, Parque Tecnol Boecillo, Valladolid 47151, Spain.
C3 Universidad de Valladolid; Universidad de Valladolid; Universidad de
   Valladolid; Universidad de Valladolid
RP Capellán-Pérez, I (corresponding author), Univ Valladolid, Res Grp Energy Econ & Syst Dynam, Escuela Ingenierias Ind, Paseo Cauce S-N, E-47011 Valladolid, Spain.; Capellán-Pérez, I (corresponding author), Univ Valladolid, Dept Syst Engn & Automat Control, Escuela Ingenierias Ind, Paseo Cauce S-N, E-47011 Valladolid, Spain.
EM inigo.capellan@uva.es
RI ; Nieto Vega, Jaime/OVY-0739-2025; Frechoso Escudero, Fernando
   A/L-4302-2014; Carpintero, Óscar/Q-9065-2016; Miguel González, Luis
   Javier/I-2829-2015; Nieto, Jaime/AAC-6050-2020; Mediavilla,
   Margarita/G-7974-2017; de Blas Sanz, Ignacio/AAC-6413-2020; LOBEJÓN,
   LUIS FERNANDO/AAC-8153-2020; Alvarez-Antelo, David/AAC-6180-2020;
   Capellán-Pérez, Iñigo/H-6069-2015
OI Ferreras-Alonso, Noelia/0000-0003-2843-6853; de Castro,
   Carlos/0000-0002-9760-3363; Nieto Vega, Jaime/0000-0003-4843-250X;
   Frechoso Escudero, Fernando A/0000-0002-1119-9217; Carpintero,
   Óscar/0000-0001-9142-8931; Miguel González, Luis
   Javier/0000-0002-8243-8596; Nieto, Jaime/0000-0002-8925-4319;
   Mediavilla, Margarita/0000-0002-9898-7573; de Blas Sanz,
   Ignacio/0000-0002-4827-3839; LOBEJÓN, LUIS FERNANDO/0000-0002-7577-6933;
   Alvarez-Antelo, David/0000-0001-9738-3981; Capellán-Pérez,
   Iñigo/0000-0002-3098-8027
FU European Union's Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme [691287,
   821105]; MODESLOW (Modeling and Simulation of scenarios towards a
   LOW-carbon transition: The Spanish case), a Spanish national research
   project under the Spanish National Research, Development and Innovation
   Program (Ministry of Economy and Competitiveness of Spain
   [ECO2017-85110-R]; Juan de la Cierva Research Fellowship of the Ministry
   of Economy and Competitiveness of Spain [FJCI-2016-28833]; H2020
   Societal Challenges Programme [691287, 821105] Funding Source: H2020
   Societal Challenges Programme
FX The authors gratefully acknowledge Inaki Arto for assisting with the
   interpretation and use of the WIOD database, Robert W. Howarth for
   sharing his data in relation to methane emissions of fossil fuels, Steve
   Mohr for sharing his world and country-level dataset including the
   scenarios of potential future extraction of fossil fuels, and Jean
   Laherre`re for sharing his forecasts for oil and gas global production.
   The authors also thank the MEDEAS project consortium
   (https://www.medeas.eu) within which the models were developed, and
   especially its coordinator Jordi Sole, Christian Kimmich for his
   collaboration in the elaboration of the world level IOT, Lukas Eggler
   and Roger Samso ' for the revision of the models, as well as the
   contribution of the project partners to the general model validation
   process. A preliminary version of this work was presented at the 11th
   Annual Meeting of the Integrated Assessment Modeling Consortium (IAMC)
   Conference in Seville (November 2018). This work has been partially
   developed under the MEDEAS project, funded by the European Union's
   Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme under grant agreement no.
   691287. This work has also been partially developed under the LOCOMOTION
   project, funded by the European Union's Horizon 2020 research and
   innovation programme under grant agreement no. 821105. The authors are
   thankful as well for the support of MODESLOW (Modeling and Simulation of
   scenarios towards a LOW-carbon transition: The Spanish case), a Spanish
   national research project funded under the Spanish National Research,
   Development and Innovation Program (Ministry of Economy and
   Competitiveness of Spain, ref. ECO2017-85110-R). In~igo Capella ' n-Pe '
   rez also acknowledges financial support from a Juan de la Cierva
   Research Fellowship of the Ministry of Economy and Competitiveness of
   Spain (no. FJCI-2016-28833).
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NR 264
TC 108
Z9 119
U1 1
U2 47
PU ROYAL SOC CHEMISTRY
PI CAMBRIDGE
PA THOMAS GRAHAM HOUSE, SCIENCE PARK, MILTON RD, CAMBRIDGE CB4 0WF, CAMBS,
   ENGLAND
SN 1754-5692
EI 1754-5706
J9 ENERG ENVIRON SCI
JI Energy Environ. Sci.
PD MAR 1
PY 2020
VL 13
IS 3
BP 986
EP 1017
DI 10.1039/c9ee02627d
PG 32
WC Chemistry, Multidisciplinary; Energy & Fuels; Engineering, Chemical;
   Environmental Sciences
WE Science Citation Index Expanded (SCI-EXPANDED); Social Science Citation Index (SSCI)
SC Chemistry; Energy & Fuels; Engineering; Environmental Sciences & Ecology
GA LB2UB
UT WOS:000524490200017
OA hybrid
DA 2026-06-13
ER

PT J
AU Moyer, JD
   Hedden, S
AF Moyer, Jonathan D.
   Hedden, Steve
TI Are we on the right path to achieve the sustainable development goals?
SO WORLD DEVELOPMENT
LA English
DT Article
DE Sustainable Development Goals; Human development; Assessment;
   Projections; Quantitative modelling; Forecasting
ID SHARED SOCIOECONOMIC PATHWAYS; BASE-LINE ANALYSIS; AFRICA; MORTALITY;
   CLIMATE; TRAJECTORIES; FUTURES; UNDER-5; HEALTH; SDGS
AB The Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) call upon all countries to achieve 17 broad development goals by 2030. The SDGs are a central component of many national development plans and foreign aid strategies. While the SDGs have become a central aspect of development planning, how achievable are they under present conditions? This paper explores a dynamic "middle-of-the-road" baseline global development scenario (Shared Socio-economic Pathway 2) using an integrated assessment model (International Futures) to evaluate progress toward target values on nine indicators related to six human development SDGs. We find that, between 2015 and 30, the world will make only limited progress towards achieving those SDGs with our current set of policy priorities. Our study finds that across the variables explored here (nine indicators for 186 countries = 1674 country-indicators), 43 percent had already reached target values by 2015. By 2030, target values are projected to be achieved for 53 percent of country-variables. This paper highlights special difficulty in achieving targets on some SDG indicators (access to safe sanitation, upper secondary school completion, and underweight children) representing persistent development issues that will not be solved without a significant shift in domestic and international aid policies and prioritization. In addition, we highlight 28 particularly vulnerable countries that are not projected to achieve any of the nine human development related target values in a middle-of-the-road scenario. These most vulnerable countries (MVCs) must be the focus of international assistance. (C) 2019 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.
C1 [Moyer, Jonathan D.; Hedden, Steve] Frederick S Pardee Ctr Int Futures, 2201 South Gaylord St, Denver, CO 80203 USA.
   [Moyer, Jonathan D.; Hedden, Steve] Univ Denver, Josef Korbel Sch Int Studies, 2201 South Gaylord St, Denver, CO 80203 USA.
C3 University of Denver
RP Moyer, JD (corresponding author), Frederick S Pardee Ctr Int Futures, 2201 South Gaylord St, Denver, CO 80203 USA.
EM jmoyer@du.edu
RI Moyer, Jonathan/ABF-9518-2020
OI Moyer, Jonathan/0000-0002-6947-0663
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NR 81
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Z9 310
U1 7
U2 172
PU PERGAMON-ELSEVIER SCIENCE LTD
PI OXFORD
PA THE BOULEVARD, LANGFORD LANE, KIDLINGTON, OXFORD OX5 1GB, ENGLAND
SN 0305-750X
EI 1873-5991
J9 WORLD DEV
JI World Dev.
PD MAR
PY 2020
VL 127
AR 104749
DI 10.1016/j.worlddev.2019.104749
PG 13
WC Development Studies; Economics
WE Social Science Citation Index (SSCI)
SC Development Studies; Business & Economics
GA KH9FF
UT WOS:000510953800065
OA hybrid
HC Y
HP N
DA 2026-06-13
ER

PT J
AU Nieto, J
   Carpintero, O
   Miguel, LJ
   de Blas, I
AF Nieto, Jaime
   Carpintero, Oscar
   Miguel, Luis J.
   de Blas, Ignacio
TI Macroeconomic modelling under energy constraints: Global low carbon
   transition scenarios
SO ENERGY POLICY
LA English
DT Article
DE Energy policy; Climate policy; Green growth; Post-growth; Integrated
   assessment models
ID CLIMATE-CHANGE MITIGATION; 2 DEGREES-C; SUSTAINABILITY TRANSITIONS;
   INCOME-DISTRIBUTION; SYSTEM DYNAMICS; FOSSIL-FUELS; GROWTH; EMPLOYMENT;
   IMPACTS; LIMITS
AB Integrated Assessment Models provide a framework to study sustainability transitions and their economic impacts. Models seldom consider energy constraints, taking supply availability for granted and thus suggesting a mere change in the energy mix from non-renewables to renewables. In order to address these limitations, a macro-economic module within a broader system dynamics model (MEDEAS) has been developed. The model has been run for the whole world from 1995 to 2050 under three different scenarios: Business as Usual (BAU), considering no further transition policies and keeping current trends; Green Growth (GG), undertaking the low-carbon transition according to the Paris Agreement set of policies and with high GDP growth standards; and Post-Growth (PG), testing the sustainability transition under a GDP non-growth/degrowth approach. The results reveal the conflict between economic growth, climate policy and the sustainability of resources. Whereas a BAU approach would not even be an option to achieve climate goals, a GG view would not only face the downsizing of economic output, but neither would it be able to achieve the 2 degrees C objective. The success of the PG approach in meeting emissions objectives suggests a redirection from economic growth policies to an industrial policy that incorporates efficiency and redistribution.
C1 [Nieto, Jaime; Carpintero, Oscar] Univ Valladolid, Dept Appl Econ, Ave Valle Esgueva 6, Valladolid, Spain.
   [Nieto, Jaime; Carpintero, Oscar; Miguel, Luis J.; de Blas, Ignacio] Univ Valladolid, Res Grp Energy Econ & Syst Dynam, Paseo Cauce S-N, Valladolid, Spain.
C3 Universidad de Valladolid; Universidad de Valladolid
RP Nieto, J (corresponding author), Univ Valladolid, Dept Appl Econ, Ave Valle Esgueva 6, Valladolid, Spain.
EM jaime.nieto@eco.uva.es
RI Nieto, Jaime/AAC-6050-2020; Carpintero, Óscar/Q-9065-2016; Miguel
   González, Luis Javier/I-2829-2015; Nieto Vega, Jaime/OVY-0739-2025; de
   Blas Sanz, Ignacio/AAC-6413-2020
OI Nieto, Jaime/0000-0002-8925-4319; Carpintero, Óscar/0000-0001-9142-8931;
   Miguel González, Luis Javier/0000-0002-8243-8596; Nieto Vega,
   Jaime/0000-0003-4843-250X; de Blas Sanz, Ignacio/0000-0002-4827-3839
FU European project H2020-LCE-2015-2 [691287]; MODESLOW project MODElling
   and Simulation of scenarios towards a LOW-carbon transition: the Spanish
   case); "Spanish National Research, Development and Innovation Program"
   (Ministry of Economy and Innovation, Spain) [ECO2017-85110-R]
FX We are grateful for the support in the elaboration of this article from
   the European project H2020-LCE-2015-2 (691287) Guiding European Policy
   toward a low-carbon economy. Modelling Energy System Development under
   Environmental and Socioeconomic constraints (MEDEAS). We are thankful as
   well for the support of MODESLOW project MODElling and Simulation of
   scenarios towards a LOW-carbon transition: the Spanish case). We are
   grateful to the Spanish national research project (ECO2017-85110-R)
   funded by the "Spanish National Research, Development and Innovation
   Program" (Ministry of Economy and Innovation, Spain). We are thankful
   for the work developed within the Research Group on Energy, Economy and
   System Dynamics. We would also like to express our gratitude to the
   reviewers for their helpful comments.
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NR 93
TC 116
Z9 128
U1 1
U2 110
PU ELSEVIER SCI LTD
PI London
PA 125 London Wall, London, ENGLAND
SN 0301-4215
EI 1873-6777
J9 ENERG POLICY
JI Energy Policy
PD FEB
PY 2020
VL 137
AR 111090
DI 10.1016/j.enpol.2019.111090
PG 16
WC Economics; Energy & Fuels; Environmental Sciences; Environmental Studies
WE Science Citation Index Expanded (SCI-EXPANDED); Social Science Citation Index (SSCI)
SC Business & Economics; Energy & Fuels; Environmental Sciences & Ecology
GA KO3HQ
UT WOS:000515439900033
DA 2026-06-13
ER

PT J
AU de Blas, I
   Miguel, LJ
   Capellán-Pérez, I
AF de Blas, Ignacio
   Javier Miguel, Luis
   Capellan-Perez, Inigo
TI Modelling of sectoral energy demand through energy intensities in MEDEAS
   integrated assessment model
SO ENERGY STRATEGY REVIEWS
LA English
DT Article; Proceedings Paper
CT Conference on Energy Modelling Platform for Europe (EMP-E) - Modelling
   Clean Energy Pathways
CY SEP 25-26, 2018
CL Brussels, BELGIUM
DE Integrated assessment modelling; Energy intensity; Energy demand;
   Technological change; Electrification
ID EMPIRICAL-ANALYSIS; EFFICIENCY; LIMITS; SUBSTITUTION; CONSTRAINTS;
   INDICATORS; CHALLENGES; EMISSIONS; INDUSTRY; GROWTH
AB The estimation of future energy demand is a key factor for the development of effective alternative policies towards a low carbon economy. This paper describes a novel method to estimate the energy demand in the new integrated assessment framework MEDEAS based on the projection of sectoral final energy intensities. The dynamic of each of the sectoral final energy intensity is broken down into (1) improvement in energy efficiency and (2) substitution of the final energy. The speed of changes in these factors depend on physical supply-demand unbalances in the market, climate mitigation and other energy saving policies and the perception of scarcity of the different economic agents. The simulated case studies in MEDEAS-World under the narrative of the Business-as-usual (BAU) scenario have allowed validating the model's robustness and showing the potentiality of its application.
C1 [de Blas, Ignacio; Javier Miguel, Luis; Capellan-Perez, Inigo] Univ Valladolid, Escuela Ingn Ind, Res Grp Energy Econ & Syst Dynam, Paseo Del Cauce S-N, E-47011 Valladolid, Spain.
   [Javier Miguel, Luis; Capellan-Perez, Inigo] Univ Valladolid, Escuela Ingn Ind, Syst Engn & Automat Control, Paseo Del Cauce S-N, E-47011 Valladolid, Spain.
C3 Universidad de Valladolid; Universidad de Valladolid
RP de Blas, I (corresponding author), Univ Valladolid, Escuela Ingn Ind, Res Grp Energy Econ & Syst Dynam, Paseo Del Cauce S-N, E-47011 Valladolid, Spain.
EM ignaciodeblas@eii.uva.es
RI Miguel González, Luis Javier/I-2829-2015; de Blas Sanz,
   Ignacio/AAC-6413-2020; Capellán-Pérez, Iñigo/H-6069-2015
OI Miguel González, Luis Javier/0000-0002-8243-8596; de Blas Sanz,
   Ignacio/0000-0002-4827-3839; Capellán-Pérez, Iñigo/0000-0002-3098-8027
FU European Union [691287]; Juan de la Cierva Research Fellowship of the
   Ministry of Economy and Competitiveness of Spain [FJCI-2016-28833];
   H2020 Societal Challenges Programme [691287] Funding Source: H2020
   Societal Challenges Programme
FX This work has been partially developed under the MEDEAS project, funded
   by the European Union's Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme
   under grant agreement No 691287. Inigo Capellan-Perez acknowledges
   financial support from the Juan de la Cierva Research Fellowship of the
   Ministry of Economy and Competitiveness of Spain (no. FJCI-2016-28833).
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NR 106
TC 22
Z9 23
U1 0
U2 12
PU ELSEVIER
PI AMSTERDAM
PA RADARWEG 29, 1043 NX AMSTERDAM, NETHERLANDS
SN 2211-467X
EI 2211-4688
J9 ENERGY STRATEG REV
JI Energy Strateg. Rev.
PD NOV
PY 2019
VL 26
AR 100419
DI 10.1016/j.esr.2019.100419
PG 22
WC Energy & Fuels
WE Science Citation Index Expanded (SCI-EXPANDED); Social Science Citation Index (SSCI); Conference Proceedings Citation Index - Science (CPCI-S)
SC Energy & Fuels
GA JX9NX
UT WOS:000504054700052
OA Green Submitted, gold
DA 2026-06-13
ER

PT J
AU Rezny, L
   Bures, V
AF Rezny, Lukas
   Bures, Vladimir
TI Energy Transition Scenarios and Their Economic Impacts in the Extended
   Neoclassical Model of Economic Growth
SO SUSTAINABILITY
LA English
DT Article
DE economic dynamics; energy transition; neoclassical growth model; EROEI;
   feedback structure; system dynamics
ID LIMITS; DYNAMICS; RETURN; EROI; SYSTEM
AB Introduction: Energy return on energy invested (EROEI) of fossil fuels has been declining sharply, while modern renewable energy sources generally have even lower EROEI than fossil fuels. It has been repeatedly proven that economic growth expressed in the form of growth of real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is closely related to intensified energy consumption and escalated usage of natural resources in general. This problem remains scarcely explored in pure economic modelling. Objectives: This study presents a novel model titled Energy Extended Neoclassical Growth Model (EENGM), which focuses on the consequences of declining quantity and quality of extractable fossil fuels and lower quality of the succeeding renewable energy technology for economic growth. Method: The Neoclassical growth model is translated into a system dynamics format and is extended by important feedback mechanisms, which are identified as important from the literature and mostly missing from the analyzed system dynamics models with a similar scope. Two scenarios assess the EENGM performance: business as usual (BAU) and the sustainability strategy (SUS). Results: Sensitivity analysis is performed for the Energy Return on Energy Invested (EROEI) parameter and results in the investment share in GDP varying between 27 and 40%, while the energy sector investment largely displaces investment in other economic sectors. The EENGM is associated with new behavior whereby the underperforming energy sector limits GDP growth and seizes most of the available investment. The adoption of the SUS strategy causes 28% lower cumulative fossil fuel aggregate consumption which still corresponds to higher than 1.5 degrees C global warming compared to the preindustrial levels. Conclusion: The share of consumption in the GDP of an economy undergoing energy transition can approach levels previously seen only in totally war-oriented economies. Even omitting other negative environmental feedback, the feasibility of the successful energy transition of the system in its contemporary form, with the currently available renewable energy technology, seems to be highly uncertain.
C1 [Rezny, Lukas; Bures, Vladimir] Univ Hradec Kralove, Fac Informat & Management, Rokitanskeho 62, Hradec Kralove 50003, Czech Republic.
C3 University of Hradec Kralove
RP Bures, V (corresponding author), Univ Hradec Kralove, Fac Informat & Management, Rokitanskeho 62, Hradec Kralove 50003, Czech Republic.
EM vladimir.bures@uhk.cz
RI ; Bureš, Vladimír/A-4353-2013
OI Režný, Lukáš/0000-0001-6584-6742; Bureš, Vladimír/0000-0001-7788-7445
FU FIM UHK excellence projects
FX Authors would like to thank for the support from the FIM UHK excellence
   projects for the year 2019.
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U2 13
PU MDPI
PI BASEL
PA MDPI AG, Grosspeteranlage 5, CH-4052 BASEL, SWITZERLAND
EI 2071-1050
J9 SUSTAINABILITY-BASEL
JI Sustainability
PD JUL 1
PY 2019
VL 11
IS 13
AR 3644
DI 10.3390/su11133644
PG 25
WC Green & Sustainable Science & Technology; Environmental Sciences;
   Environmental Studies
WE Science Citation Index Expanded (SCI-EXPANDED); Social Science Citation Index (SSCI)
SC Science & Technology - Other Topics; Environmental Sciences & Ecology
GA IL1IB
UT WOS:000477051900142
OA Green Submitted, gold
DA 2026-06-13
ER

PT J
AU Moyer, JD
   Bohl, DK
AF Moyer, Jonathan D.
   Bohl, David K.
TI Alternative pathways to human development: Assessing trade-offs and
   synergies in achieving the Sustainable Development Goals
SO FUTURES
LA English
DT Article
DE Sustainable development goals; Forecasting human development;
   Alternative development pathways; Sustainable development
AB How achievable are the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) across different policy pathways? In this paper we model three alternative policy pathways for achieving SDG targets: technology, lifestyle change, and decentralized governance. We use countries that historically have developed rapidly to scale alternative pathways in an integrated assessment platform and explore the achievability of nine human development related SDGs to 2050. We find that combining all interventions leads to 63 percent of SDG target values achieved by 2030 and 89 percent by 2050, falling short of full achievement. The global technology pathway is the most successful at improving human development while the reduced consumption pathway is least successful. Achievement in lower secondary education, sanitation, and electricity lag behind other indicators across each of these scenarios. We also show that the geographic level of analysis matters significantly in assessing SDG achievement: assessed via global population, many SDGs appear achievable, but assessed at the country level, many small poor countries do not achieve targets in any scenario. This suggests that these most vulnerable countries (MVCs) should be the focus of a global effort to sustainably improve human development.
C1 [Moyer, Jonathan D.; Bohl, David K.] Univ Denver, Josef Korbel Sch Int Studies, 2201 South Gaylord St,Room 1179, Denver, CO 80201 USA.
   [Moyer, Jonathan D.; Bohl, David K.] Frederick S Pardee Ctr Int Futures, Denver, CO USA.
C3 University of Denver
RP Moyer, JD (corresponding author), Univ Denver, Josef Korbel Sch Int Studies, 2201 South Gaylord St,Room 1179, Denver, CO 80201 USA.
EM jmoyer@du.edu
RI Moyer, Jonathan/ABF-9518-2020
OI Moyer, Jonathan/0000-0002-6947-0663
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NR 41
TC 105
Z9 133
U1 0
U2 52
PU ELSEVIER SCI LTD
PI OXFORD
PA THE BOULEVARD, LANGFORD LANE, KIDLINGTON, OXFORD OX5 1GB, OXON, ENGLAND
SN 0016-3287
EI 1873-6378
J9 FUTURES
JI Futures
PD JAN
PY 2019
VL 105
BP 199
EP 210
DI 10.1016/j.futures.2018.10.007
PG 12
WC Economics; Regional & Urban Planning
WE Social Science Citation Index (SSCI)
SC Business & Economics; Public Administration
GA HI9GQ
UT WOS:000456763700017
DA 2026-06-13
ER

PT J
AU Dafermos, Y
   Nikolaidi, M
   Galanis, G
AF Dafermos, Yannis
   Nikolaidi, Maria
   Galanis, Giorgos
TI Climate Change, Financial Stability and Monetary Policy
SO ECOLOGICAL ECONOMICS
LA English
DT Article
DE Ecological macroeconomics; Stock-flow consistent modelling; Climate
   change; Financial stability; Green quantitative easing
ID NATURAL DISASTERS; MODEL; CREDIT; CYCLE; DYNAMICS; SYSTEM; RISK
AB Using a stock-flow-fund ecological macroeconomic model, we analyse (i) the effects of climate change on financial stability and (ii) the financial and global warming implications of a green quantitative easing (QE) programme. Emphasis is placed on the impact of climate change damages on the price of financial assets and the financial position of firms and banks. The model is estimated and calibrated using global data and simulations are conducted for the period 2016-2120. Four key results arise. First, by destroying the capital of firms and reducing their profitability, climate change is likely to gradually deteriorate the liquidity of firms, leading to a higher rate of default that could harm both the financial and the non-financial corporate sector. Second, climate change damages can lead to a portfolio reallocation that can cause a gradual decline in the price of corporate bonds. Third, climate-induced financial instability might adversely affect credit expansion, exacerbating the negative impact of climate change on economic activity. Fourth, the implementation of a green corporate QE programme can reduce climate-induced financial instability and restrict global warming. The effectiveness of this programme depends positively on the responsiveness of green investment to changes in bond yields.
C1 [Dafermos, Yannis] Univ West England, Dept Accounting Econ & Finance, Bristol, Avon, England.
   [Nikolaidi, Maria] Univ Greenwich, Dept Int Business & Econ, London, England.
   [Galanis, Giorgos] Goldsmiths Univ London, Inst Management Studies, London, England.
C3 University of West England; University of Greenwich; University of
   London; Goldsmiths University London
RP Nikolaidi, M (corresponding author), Univ Greenwich, Old Royal Naval Coll, Dept Int Business & Econ, Pk Row, London SE10 9LS, England.
EM M.Nikolaidi@greenwich.ac.uk
RI Dafermos, Yannis/U-3944-2019
OI Dafermos, Yannis/0000-0002-8127-6249; Nikolaidi,
   Maria/0000-0002-8188-5482
FU Network for Social Change; University of the West of England
FX We are grateful to two anonymous referees for their constructive
   comments and suggestions. Earlier versions of the paper were presented
   at the 20th Conference of the Research Network Macroeconomics and
   Macroeconomic Policies (FMM), Berlin, October 2016, the European
   Association for Evolutionary Political Economy (EAEPE) conference,
   Manchester, November 2016, the workshop 'Central banking, climate change
   and environmental sustainability', Bank of England, London, November
   2016, the 12th Conference of the European Society for Ecological
   Economics (ESEE), Budapest, June 2017, the EcoMod2017 Conference,
   Ljubljana, July 2017 and the workshop 'Climate change, the energy
   transition and the financial system', France Strategie and Chair Energy
   et Prosperity, Paris, October 2017. We thank the participants in these
   events, and especially Alex Bowen, for helpful comments. This research
   is part of a project conducted by the New Economics Foundation. The
   financial support from the Network for Social Change is gratefully
   acknowledged. Yannis Dafermos also acknowledges the financial support
   from the Vice Chancellor's Early Career Research scheme of the
   University of the West of England. The usual disclaimers apply.
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NR 52
TC 453
Z9 549
U1 25
U2 431
PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE BV
PI AMSTERDAM
PA PO BOX 211, 1000 AE AMSTERDAM, NETHERLANDS
SN 0921-8009
EI 1873-6106
J9 ECOL ECON
JI Ecol. Econ.
PD OCT
PY 2018
VL 152
BP 219
EP 234
DI 10.1016/j.ecolecon.2018.05.011
PG 16
WC Ecology; Economics; Environmental Sciences; Environmental Studies
WE Science Citation Index Expanded (SCI-EXPANDED); Social Science Citation Index (SSCI)
SC Environmental Sciences & Ecology; Business & Economics
GA GO6BI
UT WOS:000440118700022
OA Green Submitted, hybrid
HC Y
HP N
DA 2026-06-13
ER

PT J
AU Dafermos, Y
   Nikolaidi, M
   Galanis, G
AF Dafermos, Yannis
   Nikolaidi, Maria
   Galanis, Giorgos
TI A stock-flow-fund ecological macroeconomic model
SO ECOLOGICAL ECONOMICS
LA English
DT Article
DE Ecological macroeconomics; Stock-flow consistent modelling; Laws of
   thermodynamics; Climate change; Finance
ID CLIMATE-CHANGE; ECONOMY; GROWTH; TARGETS; IMPACT; RISK
AB This paper develops a stock-flow-fund ecological macroeconomic model that combines the stock-flow consistent approach of Godley and Lavoie with the flow-fund model of Georgescu-Roegen. The model has the following key features. First, monetary and physical stocks and flows are explicitly formalised taking into account the accounting principles and the laws of thermodynamics. Second, Georgescu-Roegen's distinction between stock-flow and fund-service resources is adopted. Third, output is demand-determined but supply constraints might arise either due to environmental damages or due to the exhaustion of natural resources. Fourth, climate change influences directly the components of aggregate demand. Fifth, finance affects macroeconomic activity and the materialisation of investment plans that determine ecological efficiency. The model is calibrated using global data. Simulations are conducted to investigate the trajectories of key environmental, macroeconomic and financial variables under (i) different assumptions about the sensitivity of economic activity to the leverage ratio of firms and (ii) different types of green finance policies. (C) 2016 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V.
C1 [Dafermos, Yannis] Univ West England, Dept Accounting Econ & Finance, Bristol, Avon, England.
   [Nikolaidi, Maria] Univ Greenwich, Dept Int Business & Econ, London, England.
   [Galanis, Giorgos] Goldsmiths Univ London, Inst Management Studies, London, England.
   [Galanis, Giorgos] New Econ Fdn, London, England.
C3 University of West England; University of Greenwich; University of
   London; Goldsmiths University London
RP Dafermos, Y (corresponding author), Univ West England, Frenchay Campus,Coldharbour Lane, Bristol BS16 1QY, Avon, England.
EM Yannis.Dafermos@uwe.ac.uk
RI Dafermos, Yannis/U-3944-2019
OI Dafermos, Yannis/0000-0002-8127-6249; Nikolaidi,
   Maria/0000-0002-8188-5482
FU Network for Social Change
FX We are grateful to Sebastian Berger, Peter Bradley, Vince Daly, Duncan
   Foley, Ewa Karwowski, Andrew Mearman, Jo Michell, Oliver Richters,
   Engelbert Stockhammer and Rafael Wildauer for valuable comments. We are
   also grateful to two anonymous referees for constructive suggestions.
   Earlier versions of this paper were presented at the 19th SCEME Seminar
   in Economic Methodology, Bristol, May 2014, the 18th Conference of the
   Research Network Macroeconomics and Macroeconomic Policies (FMM),
   Berlin, October-November 2014, the 25th Annual Workshop of the
   Post-Keynesian Economics Study Group, London, May 2015, the 11th
   Conference of the European Society for Ecological Economics, Leeds,
   June-July 2015, the Political Economy seminar series of Kingston
   University, London, December 2015 and the MISUM research seminar series
   of Stockholm School of Economics, December 2015. We thank the
   participants for helpful comments. This research is part of a project
   conducted by the New Economics Foundation. The financial support from
   the Network for Social Change is gratefully acknowledged. The usual
   disclaimers apply.
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NR 47
TC 131
Z9 154
U1 1
U2 91
PU ELSEVIER
PI AMSTERDAM
PA RADARWEG 29, 1043 NX AMSTERDAM, NETHERLANDS
SN 0921-8009
EI 1873-6106
J9 ECOL ECON
JI Ecol. Econ.
PD JAN
PY 2017
VL 131
BP 191
EP 207
DI 10.1016/j.ecolecon.2016.08.013
PG 17
WC Ecology; Economics; Environmental Sciences; Environmental Studies
WE Science Citation Index Expanded (SCI-EXPANDED); Social Science Citation Index (SSCI)
SC Environmental Sciences & Ecology; Business & Economics
GA EC6LW
UT WOS:000388248600018
OA Green Submitted, hybrid
DA 2026-06-13
ER

PT J
AU Boumans, R
   Roman, J
   Altman, I
   Kaufman, L
AF Boumans, Roelof
   Roman, Joe
   Altman, Irit
   Kaufman, Les
TI The Multiscale Integrated Model of Ecosystem Services (MIMES):
   Simulating the interactions of coupled human and natural systems
SO ECOSYSTEM SERVICES
LA English
DT Article
DE Simulation modeling; Landscape; Production functions; Forecasts
ID SOCIAL-ECOLOGICAL SYSTEMS
AB In coupled human and natural systems ecosystem services form the link between ecosystem function and what humans want and need from their surroundings. Interactions between natural and human components are bidirectional and define the dynamics of the total system. Here we describe the MIMES, an analytical framework designed to assess the dynamics associated with ecosystem service function and human activities. MIMES integrate diverse types of knowledge and elucidate how benefits from ecosystem services are gained and lost. In MIMES, users formalize how materials are transformed between natural, human, built, and social capitals. This information is synthesized within a systems model to forecast ecosystem services and human-use dynamics under alternative scenarios. The MIMES requires that multiple ecological and human dynamics be specified, and that outputs may be understood through different temporal and spatial lenses to assess the effects of different actions in the short and long term and at different spatial scales. Here we describe how MIMES methodologies were developed in association with three case studies: a global application, a watershed model, and a marine application. We discuss the advantages and disadvantage of the MIMES approach and compare it to other broadly used ecosystem service assessment tools. Published by Elsevier B.V.
C1 [Boumans, Roelof] Accounting Desirable Futures LW, Charlotte, VT 05445 USA.
   [Roman, Joe] Univ Vermont, Gund Inst Ecol Econ, Burlington, VT 05405 USA.
   [Altman, Irit; Kaufman, Les] Boston Univ, Pardee Inst Study Longer Range Future, Program Coupled Human & Nat Syst, Boston, MA 02215 USA.
   [Kaufman, Les] Gordon & Betty Moore Ctr Ecosyst Sci & Econ, Arlington, VA 22202 USA.
C3 University of Vermont; Boston University
RP Boumans, R (corresponding author), Accounting Desirable Futures LW, Charlotte, VT 05445 USA.
EM rboumans@afordablefutures.com
FU Gordon and Betty Moore Foundation; EPA; Earth Economics; Wilderness
   Society; Wild Salmon Center; HARC: Exxon, Sea Plan (Massachusetts);
   MacArthur Foundation; Conservation International
FX The development of MIMES was made possible by support from the Gordon
   and Betty Moore Foundation, EPA, Earth Economics, Wilderness Society,
   Wild Salmon Center, HARC: Exxon, Sea Plan (Massachusetts), the MacArthur
   Foundation, and Conservation International. Our work benefited greatly
   from interactions with colleagues and students of the Gund Institute for
   Ecological Economics, in particular Bob Costanza and Azur Moulaert;
   staff at the Office of Research and Development Interactions between
   humans and ecosystems at EPA, in particular Denis White, Thomas
   Fountain, John Johnston, and Brenda Rashleigh; researchers at Massey
   University, in particular Marjan van den Belt; Ademar Romeiro at
   Unicamp; and the staff of Sea Plan. This paper is a contribution of the
   program on Coupled Human and Natural Systems, Pardee Center for the
   Study of the Longer-Range Future, Boston University.
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NR 52
TC 189
Z9 237
U1 11
U2 233
PU ELSEVIER
PI AMSTERDAM
PA RADARWEG 29, 1043 NX AMSTERDAM, NETHERLANDS
SN 2212-0416
J9 ECOSYST SERV
JI Ecosyst. Serv.
PD APR
PY 2015
VL 12
SI SI
BP 30
EP 41
DI 10.1016/j.ecoser.2015.01.004
PG 12
WC Ecology; Environmental Sciences; Environmental Studies
WE Science Citation Index Expanded (SCI-EXPANDED); Social Science Citation Index (SSCI)
SC Environmental Sciences & Ecology
GA CU6TA
UT WOS:000363665300004
DA 2026-06-13
ER

PT J
AU Arbault, D
   Rivière, M
   Rugani, B
   Benetto, E
   Tiruta-Barna, L
AF Arbault, Damien
   Riviere, Mylene
   Rugani, Benedetto
   Benetto, Enrico
   Tiruta-Barna, Ligia
TI Integrated earth system dynamic modeling for life cycle impact
   assessment of ecosystem services
SO SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT
LA English
DT Article
DE Life Cycle Impact Assessment (LCIA); Life Cycle Assessment (LCA);
   Dynamic modeling; Ecosystem Services (ES); Integrated modeling; Global
   Unified Metamodel of the Biosphere (GUMBO)
ID FOREST MANAGEMENT; LAND-USE; BIODIVERSITY; LCA; VALUATION; FRAMEWORK;
   GOODS
AB Despite the increasing awareness of our dependence on Ecosystem Services (ES), Life Cycle Impact Assessment (LCIA) does not explicitly and fully assess the damages caused by human activities on ES generation. Recent improvements in LCIA focus on specific cause-effect chains, mainly related to land use changes, leading to Characterization Factors (CFs) at the midpoint assessment level. However, despite the complexity and temporal dynamics of ES, current LCIA approaches consider the environmental mechanisms underneath ES to be independent from each other and devoid of dynamic character, leading to constant CFs whose representativeness is debatable. This paper takes a step forward and is aimed at demonstrating the feasibility of using an integrated earth system dynamic modeling perspective to retrieve time- and scenario-dependent CFs that consider the complex interlinkages between natural processes delivering ES. The GUMBO (Global Unified Metamodel of the Biosphere) model is used to quantify changes in ES production in physical terms - leading to midpoint CFs - and changes in human welfare indicators, which are considered here as endpoint CFs. The interpretation of the obtained results highlights the key methodological challenges to be solved to consider this approach as a robust alternative to the mainstream rationale currently adopted in LCIA. Further research should focus on increasing the granularity of environmental interventions in the modeling tools to match current standards in LCA and on adapting the conceptual approach to a spatially-explicit integrated model. (C) 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
C1 [Arbault, Damien; Riviere, Mylene; Rugani, Benedetto; Benetto, Enrico] Publ Res Ctr Henri Tudor, Resource Ctr Environm Technol, L-4362 Esch Sur Alzette, Luxembourg.
   [Arbault, Damien; Riviere, Mylene; Tiruta-Barna, Ligia] Univ Toulouse, INSA, UPS, INP,LISBP, F-31077 Toulouse, France.
   [Arbault, Damien; Riviere, Mylene; Tiruta-Barna, Ligia] INRA, UMR792, Lab Ingn Syst Biol & Proc, F-31400 Toulouse, France.
   [Arbault, Damien; Riviere, Mylene; Tiruta-Barna, Ligia] CNRS, UMR5504, F-31400 Toulouse, France.
C3 Communaute d'universites et etablissements de Toulouse (Comue); Centre
   National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS); CNRS - Institute of
   Physics (INP); Universite de Toulouse (EPE); Institut National des
   Sciences Appliquees de Toulouse; Institut National Polytechnique de
   Toulouse; INRAE; Communaute d'universites et etablissements de Toulouse
   (Comue); Universite de Toulouse (EPE); Institut National des Sciences
   Appliquees de Toulouse; Communaute d'universites et etablissements de
   Toulouse (Comue); Universite de Toulouse (EPE); Institut National des
   Sciences Appliquees de Toulouse; Centre National de la Recherche
   Scientifique (CNRS); CNRS - Institute for Engineering & Systems Sciences
   (INSIS)
RP Benetto, E (corresponding author), Publ Res Ctr Henri Tudor, Resource Ctr Environm Technol, 6A Ave Hauts Fourneaux, L-4362 Esch Sur Alzette, Luxembourg.
EM enrico.benetto@tudor.lu
RI Benetto, Enrico/H-3234-2012; RUGANI, Benedetto/E-8074-2017
OI Benetto, Enrico/0000-0003-1159-9162; RUGANI,
   Benedetto/0000-0002-3525-1382
FU National Research Fund, Luxembourg [1063711]; French National Research
   Fund [EVALEAU ANR-08-ECOT-006-00 0894C0238]
FX This project was supported by the National Research Fund, Luxembourg
   (Ref 1063711) and the French National Research Fund (project EVALEAU
   ANR-08-ECOT-006-00 0894C0238).
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NR 68
TC 59
Z9 62
U1 3
U2 107
PU ELSEVIER
PI AMSTERDAM
PA RADARWEG 29, 1043 NX AMSTERDAM, NETHERLANDS
SN 0048-9697
EI 1879-1026
J9 SCI TOTAL ENVIRON
JI Sci. Total Environ.
PD FEB 15
PY 2014
VL 472
BP 262
EP 272
DI 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2013.10.099
PG 11
WC Environmental Sciences
WE Science Citation Index Expanded (SCI-EXPANDED); Social Science Citation Index (SSCI)
SC Environmental Sciences & Ecology
GA AB6RB
UT WOS:000331916100031
PM 24291626
DA 2026-06-13
ER

PT J
AU Akhtar, MK
   Wibe, J
   Simonovic, SP
   MacGee, J
AF Akhtar, Mohammad K.
   Wibe, Jacob
   Simonovic, Slobodan P.
   MacGee, Jim
TI Integrated assessment model of society-biosphere-climate-economy-energy
   system
SO ENVIRONMENTAL MODELLING & SOFTWARE
LA English
DT Article
DE System dynamics simulation; Feedback; Climate change; Integrated
   assessment modeling; Society-biosphere-climate-economy-energy system;
   Optimization
ID HIGH AMBIENT-TEMPERATURE; SEA-LEVEL; WATER-RESOURCES; DAILY MORTALITY;
   CONJUNCTIVE USE; SURFACE-WATER; HEAT-WAVE; OPTIMIZATION; SIMULATION;
   IMPACT
AB The feedback based integrated assessment model ANEMI_2 represents the society-biosphere-climate-economy-energy system of the earth and biosphere. The ANEMI_2 model is based on the system dynamics simulation approach that (a) allows for the understanding and modeling of complex global change and (b) assists in the investigation of possible policy options for mitigating, and/or adapting to changing global conditions within an integrated assessment modeling framework. This paper outlines the ANEMI_2 model and its nine system components: climate, carbon cycle, land-use, population, food production, hydrologic cycle, water demand, water quality, and energy-economy. To evaluate market and nonmarket costs and benefits of climate change, the ANEMI_2 model integrates an economic optimization approach, with a focus on the international energy stock and fuel price, climate interrelations and temperature change. The model takes into account all major greenhouse gases (GHG) influencing global temperature and sea-level variation. Results from several scenarios (a) compare well with other information available in the scientific literature, (b) present comprehensive response of the society-biosphere-climate-economy-energy system to the selected scenarios, and (c) confirm the support role of the ANEMI_2 model in the policy development and analyses. (C) 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
C1 [Akhtar, Mohammad K.] Minist Forests Lands & Nat Resources Operat, Surrey, BC V3R 1E1, Canada.
   [Wibe, Jacob] Univ Colorado, Dept Econ, Denver, CO 80202 USA.
   [Simonovic, Slobodan P.] Univ Western Ontario, Dept Civil & Environm Engn, London, ON, Canada.
   [MacGee, Jim] Univ Western Ontario, Dept Econ, London, ON, Canada.
C3 University of Colorado System; University of Colorado Denver; Western
   University (University of Western Ontario); Western University
   (University of Western Ontario)
RP Akhtar, MK (corresponding author), Minist Forests Lands & Nat Resources Operat, Suite 200,10428-153 St, Surrey, BC V3R 1E1, Canada.
EM khalediwm@yahoo.com
OI MacGee, James/0000-0003-2890-4020
FU Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada (NSERC)
FX We are grateful to the Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council
   of Canada (NSERC) for its support to Professor Slobodan P. Simonovic and
   his collaborators, through the Strategic Research Grant, which funded
   development of the ANEMI_2 model.
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NR 118
TC 53
Z9 61
U1 1
U2 88
PU ELSEVIER SCI LTD
PI OXFORD
PA THE BOULEVARD, LANGFORD LANE, KIDLINGTON, OXFORD OX5 1GB, OXON, ENGLAND
SN 1364-8152
EI 1873-6726
J9 ENVIRON MODELL SOFTW
JI Environ. Modell. Softw.
PD NOV
PY 2013
VL 49
BP 1
EP 21
DI 10.1016/j.envsoft.2013.07.006
PG 21
WC Computer Science, Interdisciplinary Applications; Engineering,
   Environmental; Environmental Sciences; Water Resources
WE Science Citation Index Expanded (SCI-EXPANDED); Social Science Citation Index (SSCI)
SC Computer Science; Engineering; Environmental Sciences & Ecology; Water
   Resources
GA 260DQ
UT WOS:000327575600001
DA 2026-06-13
ER

PT J
AU Davies, EGR
   Simonovic, SP
AF Davies, Evan G. R.
   Simonovic, Slobodan P.
TI Global water resources modeling with an integrated model of the
   social-economic-environmental system
SO ADVANCES IN WATER RESOURCES
LA English
DT Article
DE Climate change; Global change; Integrated assessment; Sustainability;
   System dynamics; Water resources
ID CLIMATE-CHANGE; DYNAMICS; WORLD; SIMULATION; MANAGEMENT; SCARCITY;
   IMPACTS; QUALITY; APPROPRIATION; AVAILABILITY
AB Awareness of increasing water scarcity has driven efforts to model global water resources for improved insight into water resources infrastructure and management strategies. Most water resources models focus explicitly on water systems and represent socio-economic and environmental change as external drivers. In contrast, the system dynamics-based integrated assessment model employed here, ANEMI, incorporates dynamic representations of these systems, so that their broader changes affect and are affected by water resources systems through feedbacks. Sectors in ANEMI therefore include the global climate system, carbon cycle, economy, population, land use and agriculture, and novel versions of the hydrological cycle, global water use and water quality. Since the model focus is on their interconnections through explicit nonlinear feedbacks, simulations with ANEMI provide insight into the nature and structure of connections between water resources and socio-economic and environmental change. Of particular interest to water resources researchers and modelers will be the simulated effects of a new water stress definition that incorporates both water quality and water quantity effects into the measurement of water scarcity. Five simulation runs demonstrate the value of wastewater treatment and reuse programs and the feedback-effects of irrigated agriculture and greater consumption of animal products. (c) 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
C1 [Davies, Evan G. R.] Univ Alberta, Dept Civil & Environm Engn, Edmonton, AB, Canada.
   [Simonovic, Slobodan P.] Univ Western Ontario, Dept Civil & Environm Engn, London, ON, Canada.
C3 University of Alberta; Western University (University of Western
   Ontario)
RP Davies, EGR (corresponding author), Univ Alberta, Dept Civil & Environm Engn, Edmonton, AB, Canada.
EM evan.davies@ualberta.ca; simonovic@uwo.ca
RI Davies, Evan/A-3379-2008
OI Davies, Evan/0000-0003-0536-333X
FU National Science and Engineering Research Council (NSERC), Canada; NSERC
FX This work was funded by two generous National Science and Engineering
   Research Council (NSERC), Canada, graduate scholarships awarded to
   E.G.R. Davies and an NSERC Strategic Grant awarded to Prof. S.P.
   Simonovic. We also thank the four anonymous reviewers whose comments
   have improved the paper.
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NR 115
TC 192
Z9 226
U1 0
U2 175
PU ELSEVIER SCI LTD
PI OXFORD
PA THE BOULEVARD, LANGFORD LANE, KIDLINGTON, OXFORD OX5 1GB, OXON, ENGLAND
SN 0309-1708
EI 1872-9657
J9 ADV WATER RESOUR
JI Adv. Water Resour.
PD JUN
PY 2011
VL 34
IS 6
BP 684
EP 700
DI 10.1016/j.advwatres.2011.02.010
PG 17
WC Water Resources
WE Science Citation Index Expanded (SCI-EXPANDED); Social Science Citation Index (SSCI)
SC Water Resources
GA 776DI
UT WOS:000291514300002
DA 2026-06-13
ER

PT J
AU Rydzak, F
   Obersteiner, M
   Kraxner, F
AF Rydzak, Felicjan
   Obersteiner, Michael
   Kraxner, Florian
TI Impact of Global Earth Observation - Systemic View across GEOSS Societal
   Benefit Areas
SO INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF SPATIAL DATA INFRASTRUCTURES RESEARCH
LA English
DT Article
DE Earth observation; benefits assessment; modeling; simulation; system
   dynamics
AB The work of the Group on Earth Observation (GEO) is perceived as instrumental to attain sustainable development goals and to be a major driver of how the society-technology-environment system is managed. However, appropriate scientific methodologies to assess the benefits of the Global Earth Observation System of Systems (GEOSS) and validate investments in Earth observation infrastructure have been missing. This paper presents a systems approach to measure and analyze the impact of Global Earth Observation across the nine Societal Benefit Areas defined by GEO. The methodological framework presented here was developed and applied to be complete across space, time and sectors through integration and aggregation. Apart from the general assessment framework, we present some specifics of the numerical tool, which is based on System Dynamics modeling and simulation technique. Our results indicate that though the total system benefits are strongly policy dependent, improvements of GEOSS per se and data availability and interoperability, the accrued benefits are large and have a great potential shaping mankind's course to sustainability.
C1 [Rydzak, Felicjan; Obersteiner, Michael; Kraxner, Florian] Int Inst Appl Syst Anal, Laxenburg, Austria.
C3 International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA)
RP Rydzak, F (corresponding author), Int Inst Appl Syst Anal, Laxenburg, Austria.
EM rydzak@iiasa.ac.at; oberstei@iiasa.ac.at; kraxner@iiasa.ac.at
RI Obersteiner, Michael/ADG-8592-2022
FU EC [037063, 226487, 226364]
FX Support provided by EC FP6 Project GEO-BENE No. 037063, EC FP7 Project
   EuroGEOSS No. 226487 and EC FP7 Project EnerGEO No. 226364
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NR 31
TC 11
Z9 13
U1 0
U2 0
PU EUROPEAN COMMISSION, JOINT RESEARCH CENTRE
PI ISPRA
PA VIA FERMI 1, ISPRA, VA 21020, ITALY
SN 1725-0463
J9 INT J SPAT DATA INFR
JI Int. J. Spat. Data Infrastruct. Res.
PY 2010
VL 5
BP 216
EP 243
DI 10.2902/1725-0463.2010.05.art9
PG 28
WC Geography
WE Emerging Sources Citation Index (ESCI)
SC Geography
GA V5L6E
UT WOS:000219719500009
DA 2026-06-13
ER

PT J
AU Boumans, R
   Costanza, R
   Farley, J
   Wilson, MA
   Portela, R
   Rotmans, J
   Villa, F
   Grasso, M
AF Boumans, R
   Costanza, R
   Farley, J
   Wilson, MA
   Portela, R
   Rotmans, J
   Villa, F
   Grasso, M
TI Modeling the dynamics of the integrated earth system and the value of
   global ecosystem services using the GUMBO model
SO ECOLOGICAL ECONOMICS
LA English
DT Article
DE GUMBO model; integrated earth system; global ecosystem
AB A global unified metamodel of the biosphere (GUMBO) was developed to simulate the integrated earth system and assess the dynamics and values of ecosystem services. It is a 'metamodel' in that it represents a synthesis and a simplification of several existing dynamic global models in both the natural and social sciences at an intermediate level of complexity. The current version of the model contains 234 state variables, 930 variables total, and 1715 parameters. GUMBO is the first global model to include the dynamic feedbacks among human technology, economic production and welfare, and ecosystem goods and services within the dynamic earth system. GUMBO includes modules to simulate carbon, water, and nutrient fluxes through the Atmosphere, Lithosphere, Hydrosphere, and Biosphere of the global system. Social and economic dynamics are simulated within the Anthroposphere. GUMBO links these five spheres across eleven biomes, which together encompass the entire surface of the planet. The dynamics of eleven major ecosystem goods and services for each of the biomes are simulated and evaluated. Historical calibrations from 1900 to 2000 for 14 key variables for which quantitative time-series data was available produced an average R-2 of 0.922. A range of future scenarios representing different assumptions about future technological change, investment strategies and other factors have been simulated. The relative value of ecosystem services in terms of their contribution to supporting both conventional economic production and human well-being more broadly defined were estimated under each scenario, and preliminary conclusions drawn. The value of global ecosystem services was estimated to be about 4.5 times the value of Gross World Product (GWP) in the year 2000 using this approach. The model can be downloaded and run on the average PC to allow users to explore for themselves the complex dynamics of the system and the full range of policy assumptions and scenarios. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.
C1 Univ Maryland, Inst Ecol Econ, Solomons, MD 20688 USA.
   Univ Maryland, Marine Estuarine & Environm Sci Program, College Pk, MD 20742 USA.
   Maastricht Univ, Int Ctr Integrat Studies, NL-6200 MD Maastricht, Netherlands.
C3 University System of Maryland; University of Maryland College Park;
   Maastricht University
RP Boumans, R (corresponding author), Univ Vermont, Sch Nat Resources, Gund Inst Ecol Econ, George D Aiken Ctr, Burlington, VT 05405 USA.
RI /AAE-9555-2019; /AET-5833-2022; Costanza, Robert/A-4912-2008
OI Farley, Joshua/0000-0002-5793-5240; Costanza,
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NR 27
TC 213
Z9 296
U1 2
U2 146
PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE BV
PI AMSTERDAM
PA PO BOX 211, 1000 AE AMSTERDAM, NETHERLANDS
SN 0921-8009
J9 ECOL ECON
JI Ecol. Econ.
PD JUN
PY 2002
VL 41
IS 3
BP 529
EP 560
AR PII S0921-8009(02)00098-8
DI 10.1016/S0921-8009(02)00098-8
PG 32
WC Ecology; Economics; Environmental Sciences; Environmental Studies
WE Science Citation Index Expanded (SCI-EXPANDED); Social Science Citation Index (SSCI)
SC Environmental Sciences & Ecology; Business & Economics
GA 577QQ
UT WOS:000177073400012
DA 2026-06-13
ER

EF