FN Clarivate Analytics Web of Science
VR 1.0
PT J
AU Savitsky, G
   Burnett, G
   Beckage, B
AF Savitsky, Greta
   Burnett, Grace
   Beckage, Brian
TI Carbon, Climate, and Collapse: Coupling Climate Feedbacks and Resource
   Dynamics to Predict Societal Collapse
SO SYSTEMS
LA English
DT Article
DE climate; global change; feedbacks; human-nature dynamics; societal
   collapse; carrying capacity
ID IMPACTS; MODELS
AB Anthropogenic climate change threatens production of essential natural resources, including food, fiber, and fresh water, and provisioning of ecosystem services such as carbon sequestration, increasing the risk of societal collapse. The Human and Nature Dynamics (HANDY) model simulates the effect of resource overexploitation on societal collapse but lacks representation of feedbacks between climate change and resource regeneration in ecological systems. We extend the HANDY model by integrating models of climate change and ecological function to examine the risk of societal collapse. We conducted a sensitivity analysis of our expanded model by systematically varying key parameters to examine the range of plausible socio-ecological conditions and evaluate model uncertainty. We find that lowered greenhouse gas emissions and resilient ecosystems can delay societal collapse by up to approximately 500 years, but that any scenario with greater than net-zero greenhouse gas emissions ultimately leads to societal collapse driven by climate-induced loss of ecosystem function. Reductions in greenhouse gas emissions are the most effective intervention to delay or prevent societal collapse, followed by the conservation and management of resilient ecological systems to sequester atmospheric carbon.
C1 [Savitsky, Greta; Beckage, Brian] Univ Vermont, Dept Plant Biol, Burlington, VT 05405 USA.
   [Burnett, Grace] Univ Vermont, Dept Environm Sci, Burlington, VT 05405 USA.
   [Beckage, Brian] Univ Vermont, Dept Comp Sci, Burlington, VT 05405 USA.
C3 University of Vermont; University of Vermont; University of Vermont
RP Savitsky, G (corresponding author), Univ Vermont, Dept Plant Biol, Burlington, VT 05405 USA.
EM gsavitsk@uvm.edu
OI Beckage, Brian/0000-0002-5908-6924
FU the USDA National Institute of Food and Agriculture Hatch [1025208];
   USDA National Institute of Food and Agriculture Hatch [2436120,
   80NSSC20M0122]; National Science Foundation; National Aeronautics and
   Space Administration
FX B.B. was supported by the USDA National Institute of Food and
   Agriculture Hatch, Project Number 1025208 and National Science
   Foundation Award Number 2436120. G.S. was supported by grant number
   80NSSC20M0122 from the National Aeronautics and Space Administration.
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NR 30
TC 1
Z9 1
U1 0
U2 3
PU MDPI
PI BASEL
PA MDPI AG, Grosspeteranlage 5, CH-4052 BASEL, SWITZERLAND
EI 2079-8954
J9 SYSTEMS-BASEL
JI Systems-Basel
PD AUG 22
PY 2025
VL 13
IS 9
AR 727
DI 10.3390/systems13090727
PG 17
WC Social Sciences, Interdisciplinary
WE Social Science Citation Index (SSCI)
SC Social Sciences - Other Topics
GA 7WC0E
UT WOS:001581040200001
OA Green Submitted, gold
DA 2026-06-14
ER

PT J
AU Farman, M
AF Farman, Muhammad
TI Stability and chaos control of a fractional-order model for CO2
   emissions in the environment
SO MODELING EARTH SYSTEMS AND ENVIRONMENT
LA English
DT Article
DE Carbon dioxide emissions model; Mittag-Leffler kernel; Chaos control;
   Computational analysis
AB The increasing human population is primarily responsible for greenhouse gas emissions, with carbon dioxide being the most major and destructive. To address economic and environmental difficulties, mathematical modeling is increasingly being utilized to turn real-world problems into mathematical equations for simulations, hence improving solution understanding. This study provides a more realistic view of environmental and socioeconomic dynamics by assessing carbon dioxide emissions with a fractal-fractional mathematical model that includes memory effects and genetic characteristics. Fixed point theorems are used to prove the existence and uniqueness of the model's solution, confirming that the system is well-posed. The Lyapunov function is also employed in global stability analysis, which provides insight into the system's long-term behavior. To deal with chaotic events, a linear feedback control technique is used that governs system dynamics around equilibrium points. The study graphically models outcomes using numerical approaches based on Newton's polynomial interpolation method. In order to comprehend the behavior of the system, variations in parameter values to various fractal and fractional orders are investigated while maintaining the stability of the model. The numerical results show that the long-term memory effect, represented by the fractional order derivative, has no effect on steady point stability; nonetheless, solutions tend to approach equilibrium faster while increasing fractional-order. The study emphasizes the role of memory effects on emissions reduction, economic shifts, and environmental recovery, demonstrating the importance of fractional-order mathematical modeling in environmental sustainability and making policy recommendations to minimize carbon dioxide emissions.
C1 [Farman, Muhammad] Near East Univ, Fac Arts & Sci, Dept Math, Mersin, Turkiye.
   [Farman, Muhammad] Khazar Univ, Res Ctr Appl Math, Baku, Azerbaijan.
C3 Near East University; Ministry of Education of Azerbaijan Republic;
   Khazar University
RP Farman, M (corresponding author), Near East Univ, Fac Arts & Sci, Dept Math, Mersin, Turkiye.; Farman, M (corresponding author), Khazar Univ, Res Ctr Appl Math, Baku, Azerbaijan.
EM farmanlink@gmail.com
RI Farman, Muhammad/AAZ-2869-2020
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NR 37
TC 2
Z9 4
U1 0
U2 0
PU SPRINGER HEIDELBERG
PI HEIDELBERG
PA TIERGARTENSTRASSE 17, D-69121 HEIDELBERG, GERMANY
SN 2363-6203
EI 2363-6211
J9 MODEL EARTH SYST ENV
JI Model. Earth Syst. Environ.
PD MAY 26
PY 2025
VL 11
IS 4
AR 258
DI 10.1007/s40808-025-02429-5
PG 22
WC Environmental Sciences
WE Emerging Sources Citation Index (ESCI)
SC Environmental Sciences & Ecology
GA 2ZO8V
UT WOS:001495079500001
DA 2026-06-14
ER

PT J
AU Verma, M
   Verma, AK
AF Verma, Maitri
   Verma, Alok Kumar
TI Modeling the Impact of Renewable Energy Technologies on Atmospheric
   Carbon Dioxide Mitigation
SO JOURNAL OF OPTIMIZATION THEORY AND APPLICATIONS
LA English
DT Article; Early Access
DE Mathematical model; Global warming; Renewable energy; Stability; Optimal
   control
ID ENVIRONMENTAL KUZNETS CURVE; CLIMATE-CHANGE; CO2 EMISSIONS; REDUCTION;
   STABILITY; DYNAMICS; REMOVAL
AB Energy-related carbon dioxide (CO2\documentclass[12pt]{minimal} \usepackage{amsmath} \usepackage{wasysym} \usepackage{amsfonts} \usepackage{amssymb} \usepackage{amsbsy} \usepackage{mathrsfs} \usepackage{upgreek} \setlength{\oddsidemargin}{-69pt} \begin{document}$$\text {CO}_2$$\end{document}) emissions have significantly contributed to the increase in atmospheric CO2\documentclass[12pt]{minimal} \usepackage{amsmath} \usepackage{wasysym} \usepackage{amsfonts} \usepackage{amssymb} \usepackage{amsbsy} \usepackage{mathrsfs} \usepackage{upgreek} \setlength{\oddsidemargin}{-69pt} \begin{document}$$\text {CO}_2$$\end{document} concentrations. Curbing the carbon dioxide emissions associated with energy generation is crucial for reducing the radiative forcing of carbon dioxide and tackling the climate change issue. The use of renewable energy technologies is one of the most advocated avenues to reduce the carbon footprint of the energy sector. This study presents a mathematical model designed to analyze the influence of renewable energy technologies on the control of atmospheric CO2\documentclass[12pt]{minimal} \usepackage{amsmath} \usepackage{wasysym} \usepackage{amsfonts} \usepackage{amssymb} \usepackage{amsbsy} \usepackage{mathrsfs} \usepackage{upgreek} \setlength{\oddsidemargin}{-69pt} \begin{document}$$\text {CO}_2$$\end{document} concentrations. The proposed model consists of a set of nonlinear differential equations that describe the dynamic interplay among the human population, carbon dioxide level, energy use, and renewable energy technologies. An extensive mathematical analysis of the model is presented to delve into the long-term impact of renewable energy technologies on the control of atmospheric CO2\documentclass[12pt]{minimal} \usepackage{amsmath} \usepackage{wasysym} \usepackage{amsfonts} \usepackage{amssymb} \usepackage{amsbsy} \usepackage{mathrsfs} \usepackage{upgreek} \setlength{\oddsidemargin}{-69pt} \begin{document}$$\text {CO}_2$$\end{document} levels. The model's analysis reveals that increasing the adoption rate of renewable energy technologies and improving their efficiency in reducing carbon dioxide emissions contribute to a reduction in the equilibrium CO2\documentclass[12pt]{minimal} \usepackage{amsmath} \usepackage{wasysym} \usepackage{amsfonts} \usepackage{amssymb} \usepackage{amsbsy} \usepackage{mathrsfs} \usepackage{upgreek} \setlength{\oddsidemargin}{-69pt} \begin{document}$$\text {CO}_2$$\end{document} levels in Earth's atmosphere. One of the primary challenges to the widespread implementation of renewable energy technologies is the associated implementation costs. This study identifies optimal control strategies for lowering CO2\documentclass[12pt]{minimal} \usepackage{amsmath} \usepackage{wasysym} \usepackage{amsfonts} \usepackage{amssymb} \usepackage{amsbsy} \usepackage{mathrsfs} \usepackage{upgreek} \setlength{\oddsidemargin}{-69pt} \begin{document}$$\text {CO}_2$$\end{document} levels while simultaneously minimizing the expenses linked to the deployment of renewable energy technologies by employing optimal control theory. Furthermore, sensitivity analysis is conducted to illustrate how changes in key parameters affect the system's dynamics. Numerical simulations confirm the validity of the theoretical conclusions.
C1 [Verma, Maitri; Verma, Alok Kumar] Babasaheb Bhimrao Ambedkar Univ, Sch Phys & Decis Sci, Dept Math, Lucknow 226025, India.
C3 Babasaheb Bhimrao Ambedkar University
RP Verma, M (corresponding author), Babasaheb Bhimrao Ambedkar Univ, Sch Phys & Decis Sci, Dept Math, Lucknow 226025, India.
EM maitri.verma9@gmail.com
RI /AAD-6514-2019; Verma, Maitri/AGJ-4348-2022
OI Verma, Maitri/0000-0003-4992-2156
FU Human Resource Development Group [09/961(0014)/2019-EMR-1]; Council of
   Scientific & Industrial Research (CSIR), New Delhi, India
FX The second author (Alok Kumar Verma) thankfully acknowledges Council of
   Scientific & Industrial Research (CSIR), New Delhi, India for financial
   support in form of senior research fellowship (09/961(0014)/2019-EMR-1).
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NR 48
TC 2
Z9 2
U1 0
U2 9
PU SPRINGER/PLENUM PUBLISHERS
PI NEW YORK
PA 233 SPRING ST, NEW YORK, NY 10013 USA
SN 0022-3239
EI 1573-2878
J9 J OPTIMIZ THEORY APP
JI J. Optim. Theory Appl.
PD 2024 OCT 3
PY 2024
DI 10.1007/s10957-024-02542-y
EA OCT 2024
PG 27
WC Operations Research & Management Science; Mathematics, Applied
WE Science Citation Index Expanded (SCI-EXPANDED)
SC Operations Research & Management Science; Mathematics
GA H6K3P
UT WOS:001324503800001
DA 2026-06-14
ER

PT J
AU Timmermann, A
   Wasay, A
   Raia, P
AF Timmermann, Axel
   Wasay, Abdul
   Raia, Pasquale
TI Phase synchronization between culture and climate forcing
SO PROCEEDINGS OF THE ROYAL SOCIETY B-BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES
LA English
DT Article
DE climate; culture; phase synchronization; consumer-resource model;
   cultural evolution; planetary boundaries
ID CARRYING-CAPACITY; MODEL; ENSO; POPULATION; EXPANSION; DEMOGRAPHY;
   AFRICA; SPACE
AB Over the history of humankind, cultural innovations have helped improve survival and adaptation to environmental stress. This has led to an overall increase in human population size, which in turn further contributed to cumulative cultural learning. During the Anthropocene, or arguably even earlier, this positive sociodemographic feedback has caused a strong decline in important resources that, coupled with projected future transgression of planetary boundaries, may potentially reverse the long-term trend in population growth. Here, we present a simple consumer/resource model that captures the coupled dynamics of stochastic cultural learning and transmission, population growth and resource depletion in a changing environment. The idealized stochastic mathematical model simulates boom/bust cycles between low-population subsistence, high-density resource exploitation and subsequent population decline. For slow resource recovery time scales and in the absence of climate forcing, the model predicts a long-term global population collapse. Including a simplified periodic climate forcing, we find that cultural innovation and population growth can couple with climatic forcing via nonlinear phase synchronization. We discuss the relevance of this finding in the context of cultural innovation, the anthropological record and long-term future resilience of our own predatory species.
C1 [Timmermann, Axel; Wasay, Abdul] IBS Ctr Climate Phys, Busan, South Korea.
   [Timmermann, Axel; Wasay, Abdul] Pusan Natl Univ, Busan, South Korea.
   [Raia, Pasquale] Napoli Univ Napoli Federico II, DiSTAR, Naples, Italy.
C3 Institute for Basic Science - Korea (IBS); Pusan National University
RP Timmermann, A (corresponding author), IBS Ctr Climate Phys, Busan, South Korea.; Timmermann, A (corresponding author), Pusan Natl Univ, Busan, South Korea.
EM axel@ibsclimate.org; mawasay@pusan.ac.kr; pasquale.raia@unina.it
RI Timmermann, Axel/F-4977-2011; Raia, Pasquale/I-8600-2012; Wasay,
   Muhammad Abdul/H-6248-2018
OI Timmermann, Axel/0000-0003-0657-2969; Raia,
   Pasquale/0000-0002-4593-8006; Wasay, Muhammad Abdul/0000-0003-1028-2681
FU Institute for Basic Science, South Korea [IBS-R028-D1]
FX This research was supported by the Institute for Basic Science, South
   Korea, under IBS-R028-D1
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TC 3
Z9 5
U1 0
U2 4
PU ROYAL SOC
PI LONDON
PA 6-9 CARLTON HOUSE TERRACE, LONDON SW1Y 5AG, ENGLAND
SN 0962-8452
EI 1471-2954
J9 P ROY SOC B-BIOL SCI
JI Proc. R. Soc. B-Biol. Sci.
PD JUN 12
PY 2024
VL 291
IS 2024
AR 20240320
DI 10.1098/rspb.2024.0320
PG 12
WC Biology; Ecology; Evolutionary Biology
WE Science Citation Index Expanded (SCI-EXPANDED)
SC Life Sciences & Biomedicine - Other Topics; Environmental Sciences &
   Ecology; Evolutionary Biology
GA WM0Y0
UT WOS:001255180200006
PM 38864318
OA Green Submitted, hybrid
DA 2026-06-14
ER

PT J
AU Donald, P
   Mayengo, M
   Lamburac, AG
AF Donald, Pita
   Mayengo, Maranya
   Lamburac, Aristide G.
TI Mathematical modeling of vehicle carbon dioxide emissions
SO HELIYON
LA English
DT Article
DE Mathematical model; Vehicular emission; Greenhouse gas; Atmospheric
   carbon dioxide; Climate change; Sustainable transportation
ID CO2
AB The demand for transportation, driven by an increasing global population, is continuously rising. This has led to a higher number of vehicles on the road and an increased reliance on fossil fuels. Consequently, the rise in atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) 2 ) levels has contributed to global warming. Therefore, it is important to consider sustainable transportation practices to meet climate change mitigation targets. In this research paper, a non-linear mathematical model is developed to study the dynamics of atmospheric CO2 2 concentration in relation to human population, economic activities, forest biomass, and vehicle population. The developed model is analyzed qualitatively to understand the long-term behavior of the system's dynamics. Model parameters are fitted to actual data of world population, human economic activities, atmospheric CO2, 2 , forest biomass, and vehicle population. It is shown that increased vehicular CO2 2 emissions have a potential contribution to the increase in atmospheric CO2 2 and the decline of human population. Numerical simulations are carried out to verify the analytical findings and we performed global sensitivity analysis to explore the impacts of different sensitive parameters on the CO2 2 dynamics.
C1 [Donald, Pita; Mayengo, Maranya] Nelson Mandela African Inst Sci & Technol NM AIST, Sch Computat & Commun Sci & Engn, POB 447, Arusha, Tanzania.
   [Donald, Pita] Natl Inst Transport NIT, Dept Math Humanities & Social Sci MHSS, POB 705, Dar Es Salaam, Tanzania.
   [Lamburac, Aristide G.] Ardhi Univ ARU, Dept Comp Syst & Math, POB 35176, Dar Es Salaam, Tanzania.
RP Donald, P (corresponding author), Nelson Mandela African Inst Sci & Technol NM AIST, Sch Computat & Commun Sci & Engn, POB 447, Arusha, Tanzania.
EM donaldp@nm-aist.ac.tz
OI Donald, Pita/0000-0002-3142-5314; Mayengo, Maranya
   Makuru/0000-0002-1745-5509
FX No any fund received in accomplishing this study.
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NR 37
TC 7
Z9 8
U1 1
U2 6
PU CELL PRESS
PI CAMBRIDGE
PA 50 HAMPSHIRE ST, FLOOR 5, CAMBRIDGE, MA 02139 USA
EI 2405-8440
J9 HELIYON
JI Heliyon
PD JAN 30
PY 2024
VL 10
IS 2
AR e23976
DI 10.1016/j.heliyon.2024.e23976
EA JAN 2024
PG 14
WC Multidisciplinary Sciences
WE Science Citation Index Expanded (SCI-EXPANDED)
SC Science & Technology - Other Topics
GA E0C3D
UT WOS:001299765300001
PM 38293458
OA Green Submitted, gold
DA 2026-06-14
ER

PT J
AU Henderson, K
   Loreau, M
AF Henderson, Kirsten
   Loreau, Michel
TI A model of Sustainable Development Goals: Challenges and opportunities
   in promoting human well-being and environmental sustainability
SO ECOLOGICAL MODELLING
LA English
DT Article
DE UN Sustainable Development Goals; Well-being; Sustainability;
   Environmental sustainability; Human-nature modeling
ID RENEWABLE RESOURCES; MAPPING SYNERGIES; HUMAN-POPULATION; TRADE-OFFS;
   INEQUALITY; SYSTEMS; ENERGY; WATER
AB The United Nations is dedicated to bringing countries together to solve international problems and to shape a better future. One of the greatest challenges facing society today is meeting the population's basic needs, while protecting the environment, hence the UN Sustainable Development Goals - 17 goals to overcome current and future sustainability challenges. We incorporate the 17 goals into a simplified global socio-ecological model to analyze what actions are necessary to promote a desirable future. We find that the current population size and resource use are not sustainable with any one goal or combination of goals. In the sustainable scenarios described here the global population decreases, while maintaining higher consumption levels. We estimate that sustainability hinges on maintaining an equivalence between natural and agricultural land areas and the human population - approximately 1ha of land per person is necessary to promote human well-being and environmental sustainability. Furthermore, we find that long-term sustainability hinges on changes within the next 50 years and goals that solely target environmental degradation or consumption are too slow to drive sustainability. Social progress is occurring much faster than environmental progress, therefore actions that target shifts in power dynamics, inequality, development and education in lower income countries should be prioritized to maintain ecosystem services and promote well-being. The goals that incorporate a combination of socio-ecological policies (SDGs 3,6,8,9,10,11) promote well-being and sustainability.
C1 [Henderson, Kirsten; Loreau, Michel] CNRS, Stn Ecol Theor & Expt, 2 Route CNRS, F-09200 Moulis, France.
C3 Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS); Communaute
   d'universites et etablissements de Toulouse (Comue)
RP Henderson, K (corresponding author), CNRS, Stn Ecol Theor & Expt, 2 Route CNRS, F-09200 Moulis, France.
EM henderson.api09@gmail.com; michel.loreau@sete.cnrs.fr
FU TULIP Laboratory of Excellence [ANR-10-LABX-41]; European Research
   Council under the European Union [666971]; European Research Council
   (ERC) [666971] Funding Source: European Research Council (ERC)
FX This work was supported by the TULIP Laboratory of Excellence
   (ANR-10-LABX-41) and was conducted within the framework of the BIOSTASES
   Advanced Grant, funded by the European Research Council under the
   European Union's Horizon 2020 research and innovation program (grant
   agreement No 666971). We thank Diego Bengochea for discussions on
   sustainable development.
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NR 53
TC 227
Z9 264
U1 9
U2 133
PU ELSEVIER
PI AMSTERDAM
PA RADARWEG 29, 1043 NX AMSTERDAM, NETHERLANDS
SN 0304-3800
EI 1872-7026
J9 ECOL MODEL
JI Ecol. Model.
PD JAN
PY 2023
VL 475
AR 110164
DI 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2022.110164
EA NOV 2022
PG 9
WC Ecology
WE Science Citation Index Expanded (SCI-EXPANDED)
SC Environmental Sciences & Ecology
GA 6I6ET
UT WOS:000886221800006
HC Y
HP N
DA 2026-06-14
ER

PT J
AU Savitch, E
   Frank, A
   Carroll-Nellenback, J
   Haqq-Misra, J
   Kleidon, A
   Alberti, M
AF Savitch, Ethan
   Frank, Adam
   Carroll-Nellenback, Jonathan
   Haqq-Misra, Jacob
   Kleidon, Axel
   Alberti, Marina
TI Triggering a Climate Change Dominated "Anthropocene": Is It Common among
   Exocivilizations?
SO ASTRONOMICAL JOURNAL
LA English
DT Article
ID HABITABLE PLANETS; COMPLEX LIFE; EVOLUTION; EARTH
AB We seek to model the coupled evolution of a civilization and its host planet through the era when energy harvesting by the civilization drives the planet into new and adverse climate states. In this way, we ask if triggering "Anthropocenes" of the kind humanity is experiencing might be a generic feature of planet-civilization evolution. This question has direct consequences for both the study of astrobiology and the sustainability of human civilization. Furthermore, if Anthropocenes prove fatal for some civilizations then they can be considered as one form of a "Great Filter" and are therefore relevant to discussions of the Fermi Paradox. In this study, we focus on the effects of energy harvesting via combustion and vary the planet's initial chemistry and orbital radius. We find that in this context, the most influential parameter dictating a civilization's fate is their host planet's climate sensitivity, which quantifies how global temperatures change as CO2 is added to the atmosphere. Furthermore, this is in itself a function of the planet's atmospheric CO2 level, so planets with low levels of CO2 will have high climate sensitivities and high probabilities of triggering climate change. Using simulations of the coupled nonlinear model combined with semi-analytic treatments, we find that most planets in our initial parameter space experience diminished growth due to climate effects, an event we call a "climate-dominated Anthropocene."
C1 [Savitch, Ethan; Frank, Adam; Carroll-Nellenback, Jonathan] Univ Rochester, Dept Phys & Astron, Rochester, NY 14620 USA.
   [Haqq-Misra, Jacob] Blue Marble Space Inst Sci, 600 1st Ave,1st Floor, Seattle, WA 98104 USA.
   [Kleidon, Axel] Max Planck Inst Biogeochem, Jena, Germany.
   [Alberti, Marina] Univ Washington, Dept Urban Design & Planning, Seattle, WA 98195 USA.
C3 University of Rochester; Max Planck Society; University of Washington;
   University of Washington Seattle
RP Savitch, E (corresponding author), Univ Rochester, Dept Phys & Astron, Rochester, NY 14620 USA.
RI /O-7843-2014; alberti, marina/JZD-4034-2024
OI Haqq-Misra, Jacob/0000-0003-4346-2611; Carroll-Nellenback,
   Jonathan/0000-0003-3265-7210; Savitch, Ethan/0000-0002-2919-1109;
   alberti, marina/0000-0002-1920-309X
FU NASA [80NSSC20K0622]
FX This work was supported by NASA grant #80NSSC20K0622.
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NR 36
TC 5
Z9 6
U1 2
U2 7
PU IOP Publishing Ltd
PI Bristol
PA No.2 The Distillery, Glassfields, Avon Street, Bristol, ENGLAND
SN 0004-6256
EI 1538-3881
J9 ASTRON J
JI Astron. J.
PD NOV
PY 2021
VL 162
IS 5
AR 196
DI 10.3847/1538-3881/ac1a71
PG 15
WC Astronomy & Astrophysics
WE Science Citation Index Expanded (SCI-EXPANDED)
SC Astronomy & Astrophysics
GA WG7ZQ
UT WOS:000707213600001
OA Green Submitted, Bronze
DA 2026-06-14
ER

PT J
AU Galbraith, ED
AF Galbraith, Eric D.
TI Earth system economics: a biophysical approach to the human component of
   the Earth system
SO EARTH SYSTEM DYNAMICS
LA English
DT Article
ID CLIMATE-CHANGE; MODEL; SUSTAINABILITY; DYNAMICS
AB The study of humans has largely been carried out in isolation from the study of the non-human Earth system. This isolation has encouraged the development of incompatible philosophical, aspirational, and methodological approaches that have proven very difficult to integrate with those used for the non-human remainder of the Earth system. Here, an approach is laid out for the scientific study of the global human system that is intended to facilitate seamless integration with non-human processes by striving for a consistent physical basis, for which the name Earth system economics is proposed. The approach is typified by a foundation on state variables, central among which is the allocation of time amongst activities by human populations, and an orientation towards considering human experience. A framework is elaborated which parses the Earth system into six classes of state variables, including a neural structure class that underpins many essential features of humanity. A working example of the framework is then illustrated with a simple numerical model, considering a global population that is engaged in one of two waking activities: provisioning food or doing something else. The two activities are differentiated by their motivational factors, outcomes on state variables, and associated subjective experience. While the illustrative model is a gross simplification of reality, the results suggest how neural characteristics and subjective experience can emerge from model dynamics. The approach is intended to provide a flexible and widely applicable strategy for understanding the human-Earth system, appropriate for physically based assessments of the past and present, as well as contributing to long-term model projections that are naturally oriented towards improving human well-being.
C1 [Galbraith, Eric D.] McGill Univ, Dept Earth & Planetary Sci, Montreal, PQ, Canada.
   [Galbraith, Eric D.] Univ Autonoma Barcelona, Inst Ciencia & Tecnol Ambientals, Barcelona, Spain.
   [Galbraith, Eric D.] ICREA, Barcelona, Spain.
C3 McGill University; Autonomous University of Barcelona; ICREA
RP Galbraith, ED (corresponding author), McGill Univ, Dept Earth & Planetary Sci, Montreal, PQ, Canada.; Galbraith, ED (corresponding author), Univ Autonoma Barcelona, Inst Ciencia & Tecnol Ambientals, Barcelona, Spain.; Galbraith, ED (corresponding author), ICREA, Barcelona, Spain.
EM eric.galbraith@mcgill.ca
RI Galbraith, Eric/F-9469-2014
OI Galbraith, Eric/0000-0003-4476-4232
FU H2020 European Research Council [BIGSEA 682602]
FX This research has been supported by the H2020 European Research Council
   (grant no. BIGSEA 682602).
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NR 68
TC 5
Z9 6
U1 1
U2 11
PU COPERNICUS GESELLSCHAFT MBH
PI GOTTINGEN
PA BAHNHOFSALLEE 1E, GOTTINGEN, 37081, GERMANY
SN 2190-4979
EI 2190-4987
J9 EARTH SYST DYNAM
JI Earth Syst. Dynam.
PD MAY 27
PY 2021
VL 12
IS 2
BP 671
EP 687
DI 10.5194/esd-12-671-2021
PG 17
WC Geosciences, Multidisciplinary
WE Science Citation Index Expanded (SCI-EXPANDED); Social Science Citation Index (SSCI)
SC Geology
GA SL8QI
UT WOS:000657178800001
OA Green Submitted, gold
DA 2026-06-14
ER

PT J
AU Henderson, K
   Loreau, M
AF Henderson, Kirsten
   Loreau, Michel
TI Unequal access to resources undermines global sustainability
SO SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT
LA English
DT Article
DE Sustainability; Socio-ecological model; Inequality; Resource
   accessibility
ID HUMAN-POPULATION; HUMAN DISPERSAL; INEQUALITY; CONSERVATION; GROWTH
AB Within a global society there exist various land use patterns, inequality, and the movement of people and goods. The various practices and behaviours associated with our current society raise questions about the future sustainability of the human population and the natural environment. We derive a simplified model of the global socio-ecological system in an effort to explore the connections between human well-being and land resources, specifically looking at resource accessibility, conservation initiatives and human migration between two economically diverse regions. We find that the spatial aspect of a global system with two distinct regions allows for faster development of technology, higher peaks in population size, greater natural land degradation, and generally speaking lower population well-being in the long-term. The unequal access to resources and differences in technological progress, alter the outcome of land management (i.e., conservation) and social behaviours (i.e., migration). We conclude that any socio-ecological management practices should be conscientious of the diversity in land access, population size, population well-being and development within the global society, as the potential for unintended consequences is high. (C) 2020 Elsevier B.V. All rights resented.
C1 [Henderson, Kirsten; Loreau, Michel] CNRS, Stn Ecol Theor & Expt, 2 Route CNRS, F-09200 Moulis, France.
C3 Communaute d'universites et etablissements de Toulouse (Comue); Centre
   National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)
RP Henderson, K (corresponding author), CNRS, Stn Ecol Theor & Expt, 2 Route CNRS, F-09200 Moulis, France.
EM kirsten.henderson@sete.cnrs.fr; michel.loreau@sete.cnrs.fr
FU TULIP Laboratory of Excellence [ANK-10-LABX-41]; European Research
   Council under the European Union's Horizon 2020 research and innovation
   programme [666971]
FX This work was supported by the TULIP Laboratory of Excellence
   (ANK-10-LABX-41) and was conducted within the framework of the BIOSTASES
   Advanced Grant, funded by the European Research Council under the
   European Union's Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme (grant
   agreement No 666971). We would like to thank Diego Bangochea and
   Matthieu Barbier for insightful discussions.
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TC 8
Z9 10
U1 1
U2 33
PU ELSEVIER
PI AMSTERDAM
PA RADARWEG 29, 1043 NX AMSTERDAM, NETHERLANDS
SN 0048-9697
EI 1879-1026
J9 SCI TOTAL ENVIRON
JI Sci. Total Environ.
PD APR 1
PY 2021
VL 763
AR 142981
DI 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.142981
EA JAN 2021
PG 10
WC Environmental Sciences
WE Science Citation Index Expanded (SCI-EXPANDED); Social Science Citation Index (SSCI)
SC Environmental Sciences & Ecology
GA PS8QN
UT WOS:000608188700044
PM 33158536
OA Green Submitted, Bronze
DA 2026-06-14
ER

PT J
AU Bologna, M
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AF Bologna, Mauro
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TI Deforestation and world population sustainability: a quantitative
   analysis
SO SCIENTIFIC REPORTS
LA English
DT Article
AB In this paper we afford a quantitative analysis of the sustainability of current world population growth in relation to the parallel deforestation process adopting a statistical point of view. We consider a simplified model based on a stochastic growth process driven by a continuous time random walk, which depicts the technological evolution of human kind, in conjunction with a deterministic generalised logistic model for humans-forest interaction and we evaluate the probability of avoiding the self-destruction of our civilisation. Based on the current resource consumption rates and best estimate of technological rate growth our study shows that we have very low probability, less than 10% in most optimistic estimate, to survive without facing a catastrophic collapse.
C1 [Bologna, Mauro] Univ Tarapaca, Dept Ingn Elect Elect, Arica, Chile.
   [Aquino, Gerardo] Alan Turing Inst, London, England.
   [Aquino, Gerardo] Univ Surrey, Guildford, Surrey, England.
   [Aquino, Gerardo] Goldsmiths Univ London, London, England.
C3 Universidad de Tarapaca; Alan Turing Institute; University of Surrey;
   University of London; Goldsmiths University London
RP Aquino, G (corresponding author), Alan Turing Inst, London, England.; Aquino, G (corresponding author), Univ Surrey, Guildford, Surrey, England.; Aquino, G (corresponding author), Goldsmiths Univ London, London, England.
EM gaquino@turing.ac.uk
RI ; Aquino, Gerardo/HRE-1688-2023
OI Bologna, Mauro/0000-0001-7477-9000; Aquino, Gerardo/0000-0003-3228-7520
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NR 31
TC 70
Z9 95
U1 0
U2 19
PU NATURE PORTFOLIO
PI BERLIN
PA HEIDELBERGER PLATZ 3, BERLIN, 14197, GERMANY
SN 2045-2322
J9 SCI REP-UK
JI Sci Rep
PD MAY 6
PY 2020
VL 10
IS 1
AR 7631
DI 10.1038/s41598-020-63657-6
PG 9
WC Multidisciplinary Sciences
WE Science Citation Index Expanded (SCI-EXPANDED)
SC Science & Technology - Other Topics
GA LP0OS
UT WOS:000534022100024
PM 32376879
OA Green Submitted, gold
DA 2026-06-14
ER

PT J
AU Cazalis, V
   Loreau, M
   Henderson, K
AF Cazalis, Victor
   Loreau, Michel
   Henderson, Kirsten
TI Do we have to choose between feeding the human population and conserving
   nature? Modelling the global dependence of people on ecosystem services
SO SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT
LA English
DT Article
DE Ecosystem services; Human demography; Dynamical model; Food supply;
   Well-being
ID BIODIVERSITY CONSERVATION; EASTER-ISLAND; COLLAPSE; ECONOMICS; SCIENCE;
   LAND
AB The ability of the human population to continue growing depends strongly on the ecosystem services provided by nature. Nature, however, is becoming more and more degraded as the number of individuals increases, which could potentially threaten the future well-being of the human population. We use a dynamic model to conceptualise links between the global proportion of natural habitats and human demography, through four categories of ecosystem services (provisioning, regulating, cultural recreational and informational) to investigate the common future of nature and humanity in terms of size and well-being. Our model shows that there is generally a trade-off between the quality of life and human population size and identifies four short-term scenarios, corresponding to three long-term steady states of the model. First, human population could experience declines if nature becomes too degraded and regulating services diminish; second the majority of the population could be in a famine state, where the population continues to grow with minimal food provision. Between these scenarios, a desirable future scenario emerges from the model. It occurs if humans convert enough land to feed all the population, while maintaining biodiversity and ecosystem services. Finally, we find a fourth scenario, which combines famine and a decline in the population because of an overexploitation of land leading to a decrease in food production. Human demography is embedded in natural dynamics; the two factors should be considered together if we are to identify a desirable future for both nature and humans. (C) 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
C1 [Cazalis, Victor] CNRS, Ctr Biodivers Theory & Modelling, Theoret & Expt Ecol Stn, UMR 5321, 2 Route CNRS, F-09200 Moulis, France.
   Paul Sabatier Univ, 2 Route CNRS, F-09200 Moulis, France.
C3 Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS); CNRS - Institute of
   Ecology & Environment (INEE); Communaute d'universites et etablissements
   de Toulouse (Comue); Communaute d'universites et etablissements de
   Toulouse (Comue); Universite de Toulouse (EPE)
RP Cazalis, V (corresponding author), CNRS, Ctr Biodivers Theory & Modelling, Theoret & Expt Ecol Stn, UMR 5321, 2 Route CNRS, F-09200 Moulis, France.
EM victor.cazalis@laposte.net
OI Cazalis, Victor/0000-0003-0850-883X
FU TULIP Laboratory of Excellence [ANR-10-LABX-41]
FX This work was supported by the TULIP Laboratory of Excellence
   (ANR-10-LABX-41).
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NR 63
TC 37
Z9 49
U1 1
U2 101
PU ELSEVIER
PI AMSTERDAM
PA RADARWEG 29, 1043 NX AMSTERDAM, NETHERLANDS
SN 0048-9697
EI 1879-1026
J9 SCI TOTAL ENVIRON
JI Sci. Total Environ.
PD SEP 1
PY 2018
VL 634
BP 1463
EP 1474
DI 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2018.03.360
PG 12
WC Environmental Sciences
WE Science Citation Index Expanded (SCI-EXPANDED); Social Science Citation Index (SSCI)
SC Environmental Sciences & Ecology
GA GH1HJ
UT WOS:000433153600149
PM 29710645
OA Green Submitted
DA 2026-06-14
ER

PT J
AU Henderson, K
   Loreau, M
AF Henderson, Kirsten
   Loreau, Michel
TI How ecological feedbacks between human population and land cover
   influence sustainability
SO PLOS COMPUTATIONAL BIOLOGY
LA English
DT Article
ID ECOSYSTEM SERVICES; BIODIVERSITY; COLLAPSE; INTENSIFICATION;
   POLLINATORS; INEQUALITY; RESOURCES; SYSTEMS; FOREST; EARTH
AB It is estimated that the Earth's biocapacity is unable to meet current demands, which begs the question: is a sustainable future possible for both humans and the environment? The UN projects a human population of approximately 11 billion by the end of the 21st century; requiring additional agricultural land, greater demands for natural resources, and technological advancements. We model human population over the next century, emphasizing feedbacks between natural and agricultural resource availability and human demography. We argue that an intensive agriculture approach to feeding the growing population is ill-conceived, without considering biodiversity and ecosystem services (e.g., nutrient cycling, pollination, water purification, pest control). The productivity of agricultural land and human population dynamics are dependent on the area of natural land-generally, tipping at 5 billion ha of natural land (approximately 40% of the Earth's terrestrial area). Furthermore, our model shows that an imprudent proactive approach (i.e., focusing on agriculture and ignoring ecosystem services) limits the success of reactive measures (i.e., restoration) in the future, while the inability to react to changes and recover natural systems leads to human population decline.
C1 [Henderson, Kirsten; Loreau, Michel] CNRS, Ctr Biodivers Theory & Modelling, Theoret & Expt Ecol Stn, Moulis, France.
C3 Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)
RP Henderson, K (corresponding author), CNRS, Ctr Biodivers Theory & Modelling, Theoret & Expt Ecol Stn, Moulis, France.
EM kirsten.henderson@sete.cnrs.fr
FU TULIP Laboratory of Excellence [ANR-10-LABX-41]
FX This work was supported by the TULIP Laboratory of Excellence
   (ANR-10-LABX-41). The funders had no role in study design, data
   collection and analysis, decision to publish, or preparation of the
   manuscript.
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NR 54
TC 17
Z9 25
U1 0
U2 27
PU PUBLIC LIBRARY SCIENCE
PI SAN FRANCISCO
PA 1160 BATTERY STREET, STE 100, SAN FRANCISCO, CA 94111 USA
SN 1553-734X
EI 1553-7358
J9 PLOS COMPUT BIOL
JI PLoS Comput. Biol.
PD AUG
PY 2018
VL 14
IS 8
AR e1006389
DI 10.1371/journal.pcbi.1006389
PG 18
WC Biochemical Research Methods; Mathematical & Computational Biology
WE Science Citation Index Expanded (SCI-EXPANDED); Social Science Citation Index (SSCI)
SC Biochemistry & Molecular Biology; Mathematical & Computational Biology
GA GS1OL
UT WOS:000443298500033
PM 30118474
OA Green Submitted, gold
DA 2026-06-14
ER

PT J
AU Weinberger, VP
   Quiñinao, C
   Marquet, PA
AF Weinberger, V. P.
   Quininao, C.
   Marquet, P. A.
TI Innovation and the growth of human population
SO PHILOSOPHICAL TRANSACTIONS OF THE ROYAL SOCIETY B-BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES
LA English
DT Article
DE innovation; human population size; ecosystem services; technology;
   cumulative cultural evolution
ID CULTURAL-EVOLUTION; ECOSYSTEM SERVICES; CLIMATE-CHANGE; DEMOGRAPHY;
   COMPLEXITY; ECONOMICS; DYNAMICS; IMPACT; ANTHROPOCENE; BIODIVERSITY
AB Biodiversity is sustained by and is essential to the services that ecosystems provide. Different species would use these services in different ways, or adaptive strategies, which are sustained in time by continuous innovations. Using this framework, we postulate a model for a biological species (Homo sapiens) in a finite world where innovations, aimed at increasing the flux of ecosystem services (a measure of habitat quality), increase with population size, and have positive effects on the generation of new innovations (positive feedback) as well as costs in terms of negatively affecting the provision of ecosystem services. We applied this model to human populations, where technological innovations are driven by cumulative cultural evolution. Our model shows that depending on the net impact of a technology on the provision of ecosystem services (theta), and the strength of technological feedback (xi), different regimes can result. Among them, the human population can fill the entire planet while maximizing their well-being, but not exhaust ecosystem services. However, this outcome requires positive or green technologies that increase the provision of ecosystem services with few negative externalities or environmental costs, and that have a strong positive feedback in generating newtechnologies of the same kind. If the feedback is small, then the technological stock can collapse together with the human population. Scenarios where technological innovations generate net negative impacts may be associated with a limited technological stock as well as a limited human population at equilibrium and the potential for collapse. The only way to fill the planet with humans under this scenario of negative technologies is by reducing the technological stock to a minimum. Otherwise, the only feasible equilibrium is associated with population collapse. Our model points out that technological innovations per se may not help humans to grow and dominate the planet. Instead, different possibilities unfold for our future depending on their impact on the environment and on further innovation.
   This article is part of the themed issue 'Process and pattern in innovations from cells to societies'.
C1 [Weinberger, V. P.; Marquet, P. A.] Pontificia Univ Catolica Chile, Fac Ciencias Biol, Dept Ecol, Alameda 340, Santiago, Chile.
   [Marquet, P. A.] Pontificia Univ Catolica Chile, Fac Ciencias Biol, Lab Int Cambio Global, LINCGlobal,CSIC PUC, Alameda 340, Santiago, Chile.
   [Weinberger, V. P.; Marquet, P. A.] IEB, Casilla 653, Santiago, Chile.
   [Quininao, C.] Univ Valparaiso, Fac Ingn, CIMFAV, Gen Cruz 222, Valparaiso, Chile.
   [Quininao, C.] Univ OHiggins, Escuela Ingn, Inst Ciencias Ingn, Av Libertador Bernardo OHiggins 611, Rancagua, Chile.
   [Marquet, P. A.] Santa Fe Inst, 1399 Hyde Pk Rd, Santa Fe, NM 87501 USA.
   [Marquet, P. A.] Pontificia Univ Catolica Chile, Ctr Cambio Global PUC Global, Santiago, Chile.
   [Marquet, P. A.] ISCV, Artilleria 470, Valparaiso, Chile.
   [Weinberger, V. P.] Pontificia Univ Catolica Chile, Ctr Appl Ecol & Sustainabil CAPES, Santiago, Chile.
C3 Pontificia Universidad Catolica de Chile; Pontificia Universidad
   Catolica de Chile; Universidad de Valparaiso; Universidad de O'Higgins;
   The Santa Fe Institute; Pontificia Universidad Catolica de Chile;
   Pontificia Universidad Catolica de Chile
RP Marquet, PA (corresponding author), Pontificia Univ Catolica Chile, Fac Ciencias Biol, Dept Ecol, Alameda 340, Santiago, Chile.; Marquet, PA (corresponding author), Pontificia Univ Catolica Chile, Fac Ciencias Biol, Lab Int Cambio Global, LINCGlobal,CSIC PUC, Alameda 340, Santiago, Chile.; Marquet, PA (corresponding author), IEB, Casilla 653, Santiago, Chile.; Marquet, PA (corresponding author), Santa Fe Inst, 1399 Hyde Pk Rd, Santa Fe, NM 87501 USA.; Marquet, PA (corresponding author), Pontificia Univ Catolica Chile, Ctr Cambio Global PUC Global, Santiago, Chile.; Marquet, PA (corresponding author), ISCV, Artilleria 470, Valparaiso, Chile.
EM pmarquet@bio.puc.cl
RI QUININAO, Cristobal/IAO-3370-2023; Marquet, Pablo A/B-7732-2009
OI QUININAO, Cristobal/0000-0003-2934-6825; Marquet, Pablo
   A/0000-0001-6369-9339
FU CONICYT's Programa de Investigacion Asociativa (PIA) [Anillo SOC1405];
   Programa Capital Humano Avanzado from CONICYT; Santa Fe Institute; 
   [CONICYT/SOC1405];  [ICM-MINECON P05-001];  [PFB-CONICYT P-053]
FX C.Q. was partially supported by CONICYT's Programa de Investigacion
   Asociativa (PIA), Anillo SOC1405. V.P.W. is supported by Programa
   Capital Humano Avanzado from CONICYT. P.A.M. acknowledges support from
   projects CONICYT/SOC1405, ICM-MINECON P05-001 and PFB-CONICYT P-053 and
   the Santa Fe Institute.
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NR 90
TC 26
Z9 32
U1 1
U2 103
PU ROYAL SOC
PI LONDON
PA 6-9 CARLTON HOUSE TERRACE, LONDON SW1Y 5AG, ENGLAND
SN 0962-8436
EI 1471-2970
J9 PHILOS T R SOC B
JI Philos. Trans. R. Soc. B-Biol. Sci.
PD DEC 5
PY 2017
VL 372
IS 1735
AR 20160415
DI 10.1098/rstb.2016.0415
PG 11
WC Biology
WE Science Citation Index Expanded (SCI-EXPANDED); Social Science Citation Index (SSCI)
SC Life Sciences & Biomedicine - Other Topics
GA FK4FS
UT WOS:000413446100002
PM 29061888
OA Green Submitted, Bronze
DA 2026-06-14
ER

PT J
AU Lafuite, AS
   Loreau, M
AF Lafuite, A. -S.
   Loreau, M.
TI Time-delayed biodiversity feedbacks and the sustainability of
   social-ecological systems
SO ECOLOGICAL MODELLING
LA English
DT Article
DE Biodiversity; Ecological economics; Ecosystem services; Extinction debt;
   Integrative sustainability threshold; Social-ecological system
ID AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTIVITY GROWTH; HUMAN-POPULATION GROWTH; LAND-USE;
   PLANETARY BOUNDARY; EXTINCTION DEBT; AREA; TECHNOLOGY; RESOURCES
AB The sustainability of coupled social-ecological systems (SESs) hinges on their long-term ecological dynamics. Land conversion generates extinction and functioning debts, i.e. a time-delayed loss of species and associated ecosystem services. Sustainability theory, however, has not so far considered the longterm consequences of these ecological debts on SESs. We investigate this question using a dynamical model that couples human demography, technological change and biodiversity. Human population growth drives land conversion, which in turn reduces biodiversity-dependent ecosystem services to agricultural production (ecological feedback). Technological change brings about a demographic transition leading to a population equilibrium. When the ecological feedback is delayed in time, some SESs experience population overshoots followed by large reductions in biodiversity, human population size and well-being, which we call environmental crises. Using a sustainability criterion that captures the vulnerability of an SES to such crises, we show that some of the characteristics common to modern SESs (e.g. high production efficiency and labor intensity, concave-down ecological relationships) are detrimental to their long-term sustainability. Maintaining sustainability thus requires strong counteracting forces, such as the demographic transition and land-use management. To this end, we provide integrative sustainability thresholds for land conversion, biodiversity loss and human population size - each threshold being related to the others through the economic, technological, demographic and ecological parameters of the SES. Numerical simulations show that remaining within these sustainable boundaries prevents environmental crises from occurring. By capturing the long-term ecological and socio-economic drivers of SESs, our theoretical approach proposes a new way to define integrative conservation objectives that ensure the long-term sustainability of our planet. (C) 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
C1 [Lafuite, A. -S.] CNRS, Ctr Biodivers Theory & Modelling, Theoret & Expt Ecol Stn, Moulis, France.
   Paul Sabatier Univ, Moulis, France.
C3 Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS); Universite de
   Toulouse (EPE); Communaute d'universites et etablissements de Toulouse
   (Comue)
RP Lafuite, AS (corresponding author), CNRS, Ctr Biodivers Theory & Modelling, Theoret & Expt Ecol Stn, Moulis, France.
EM lafuite.as@gmail.com
FU TULIP Laboratory of Excellence [ANR-10-LABX-41]; Midi-Pyrenees Region
FX This work was supported by the TULIP Laboratory of Excellence
   (ANR-10-LABX-41) and the Midi-Pyrenees Region. We would like to thank
   two anonymous reviewers for their careful reading of our manuscript and
   their insightful comments and suggestions. We also thank Francois
   Salanie, Claire de Mazancourt, Bart Haege man, Audrey Valls, Robin
   Delsol, David Shanafelt, Charles Perrings and Ann Kinzig for valuable
   discussions and helpful comments on earlier versions of the manuscript.
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NR 67
TC 30
Z9 35
U1 1
U2 71
PU ELSEVIER
PI AMSTERDAM
PA RADARWEG 29, 1043 NX AMSTERDAM, NETHERLANDS
SN 0304-3800
EI 1872-7026
J9 ECOL MODEL
JI Ecol. Model.
PD MAY 10
PY 2017
VL 351
BP 96
EP 108
DI 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2017.02.022
PG 13
WC Ecology
WE Science Citation Index Expanded (SCI-EXPANDED); Social Science Citation Index (SSCI)
SC Environmental Sciences & Ecology
GA ES1AC
UT WOS:000399259300009
OA Green Submitted
DA 2026-06-14
ER

PT J
AU Manoli, G
   Katul, GG
   Marani, M
AF Manoli, Gabriele
   Katul, Gabriel G.
   Marani, Marco
TI Delay-induced rebounds in CO2 emissions and critical
   time-scales to meet global warming targets
SO EARTHS FUTURE
LA English
DT Article
ID WORLD-POPULATION; CLIMATE-CHANGE; DYNAMICS; ENERGY; LAND
AB While climate science debates are focused on the attainment of peak anthropogenic CO2 emissions and policy tools to reduce peak temperatures, the human-energy-climate system can hold "rebound" surprises beyond this peak. Following the second industrial revolution, global per capita CO2 emissions ( cc) experienced a punctuated growth of about 100% every 60 years, mainly attributable to technological development and its global spread. A model of the human-energy-climate system capable of reproducing past punctuated dynamics shows that rebounds in global CO2 emissions emerge due to delays intrinsic to the diffusion of innovations. Such intrinsic delays in the adoption and spread of low-carbon emitting technologies, together with projected population growth, upset the warming target set by the Paris Agreement. To avoid rebounds and their negative climate effects, model calculations show that the diffusion of climate-friendly technologies must occur with lags one-order of magnitude shorter ( i.e., similar to 6 years) than the characteristic timescale of past punctuated growth in c(c). Radically new strategies to globally implement the technological advances at unprecedented rates are needed if the current emission goals are to be achieved.
C1 [Manoli, Gabriele; Katul, Gabriel G.; Marani, Marco] Duke Univ, Nicholas Sch Environm & Earth Sci, Durham, NC 27708 USA.
   [Marani, Marco] Univ Padua, ICEA Dept, Padua, Italy.
   [Manoli, Gabriele] Swiss Fed Inst Technol, Inst Environm Engn, Zurich, Switzerland.
C3 Duke University; University of Padua; Swiss Federal Institutes of
   Technology Domain; ETH Zurich
RP Manoli, G (corresponding author), Duke Univ, Nicholas Sch Environm & Earth Sci, Durham, NC 27708 USA.; Manoli, G (corresponding author), Swiss Fed Inst Technol, Inst Environm Engn, Zurich, Switzerland.
EM gabriele.manoli@duke.edu
RI Manoli, Gabriele/JNS-4061-2023; Katul, Gabriel/A-7210-2008; Marani,
   Marco/F-9451-2016
OI Manoli, Gabriele/0000-0002-9245-2877; Katul,
   Gabriel/0000-0001-9768-3693; Marani, Marco/0000-0002-1493-6913
FU US National Science Foundation [NSF-EAR-1344703, NSF-EAR-1530233]; Duke
   WISeNet Program - US National Science Foundation [DGE-1068871]
FX The authors acknowledge the support from the US National Science
   Foundation (NSF-EAR-1344703 and NSF-EAR-1530233) and the Duke WISeNet
   Program (also sponsored by the US National Science Foundation, Grant
   #DGE-1068871). All data used for this paper are properly cited and
   listed in the references and supplementary information.
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NR 41
TC 22
Z9 23
U1 0
U2 27
PU AMER GEOPHYSICAL UNION
PI WASHINGTON
PA 2000 FLORIDA AVE NW, WASHINGTON, DC 20009 USA
SN 2328-4277
J9 EARTHS FUTURE
JI Earth Future
PD DEC
PY 2016
VL 4
IS 12
BP 636
EP 643
DI 10.1002/2016EF000431
PG 8
WC Environmental Sciences; Geosciences, Multidisciplinary; Meteorology &
   Atmospheric Sciences
WE Science Citation Index Expanded (SCI-EXPANDED)
SC Environmental Sciences & Ecology; Geology; Meteorology & Atmospheric
   Sciences
GA EI9FO
UT WOS:000392813400009
OA Green Submitted, gold
DA 2026-06-14
ER

PT J
AU Stutz, AJ
AF Stutz, Aaron Jonas
TI Modeling the Pre-Industrial Roots of Modern Super-Exponential Population
   Growth
SO PLOS ONE
LA English
DT Article
ID INTERGENERATIONAL TRANSFERS; EVOLUTIONARY-THEORY; COEVOLUTION;
   INEQUALITY; EMERGENCE; LONGEVITY; SELECTION
AB To Malthus, rapid human population growth-so evident in 18th Century Europe-was obviously unsustainable. In his Essay on the Principle of Population, Malthus cogently argued that environmental and socioeconomic constraints on population rise were inevitable. Yet, he penned his essay on the eve of the global census size reaching one billion, as nearly two centuries of super-exponential increase were taking off. Introducing a novel extension of J. E. Cohen's hallmark coupled difference equation model of human population dynamics and carrying capacity, this article examines just how elastic population growth limits may be in response to demographic change. The revised model involves a simple formalization of how consumption costs influence carrying capacity elasticity over time. Recognizing that complex social resource-extraction networks support ongoing consumption-based investment in family formation and intergenerational resource transfers, it is important to consider how consumption has impacted the human environment and demography-especially as global population has become very large. Sensitivity analysis of the consumption-cost model's fit to historical population estimates, modern census data, and 21st Century demographic projections supports a critical conclusion. The recent population explosion was systemically determined by long-term, distinctly pre-industrial cultural evolution. It is suggested that modern globalizing transitions in technology, susceptibility to infectious disease, information flows and accumulation, and economic complexity were endogenous products of much earlier biocultural evolution of family formation's embeddedness in larger, hierarchically self-organizing cultural systems, which could potentially support high population elasticity of carrying capacity. Modern super-exponential population growth cannot be considered separately from long-term change in the multi-scalar political economy that connects family formation and intergenerational resource transfers to wider institutions and social networks.
C1 [Stutz, Aaron Jonas] Emory Univ, Oxford Coll, Div Hist & Social Sci, Oxford, GA 30054 USA.
   [Stutz, Aaron Jonas] Emory Univ, Dept Anthropol, Atlanta, GA 30322 USA.
C3 Emory University; Emory University
RP Stutz, AJ (corresponding author), Emory Univ, Oxford Coll, Div Hist & Social Sci, Oxford, GA 30054 USA.
EM astutz@emory.edu
RI Stutz, Aaron/JTT-9718-2023
OI Stutz, Aaron/0000-0001-7932-2771
FU Faculty Development Committee of Oxford College of Emory University
FX This project has been supported by a grant from the Faculty Development
   Committee of Oxford College of Emory University. The funders had no role
   in study design, data collection and analysis, decision to publish, or
   preparation of the manuscript.
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NR 78
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JI PLoS One
PD AUG 20
PY 2014
VL 9
IS 8
AR e105291
DI 10.1371/journal.pone.0105291
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WC Multidisciplinary Sciences
WE Science Citation Index Expanded (SCI-EXPANDED); Social Science Citation Index (SSCI)
SC Science & Technology - Other Topics
GA AQ3JB
UT WOS:000342687200068
PM 25141019
OA Green Submitted, gold
DA 2026-06-14
ER

PT J
AU Motesharrei, S
   Rivas, J
   Kalnay, E
AF Motesharrei, Safa
   Rivas, Jorge
   Kalnay, Eugenia
TI Human and nature dynamics (HANDY): Modeling inequality and use of
   resources in the collapse or sustainability of societies
SO ECOLOGICAL ECONOMICS
LA English
DT Article
DE Human-nature dynamics; Societal collapse; Carrying capacity; Overshoot
   vs. sustainability; Economic inequality; Ecological strain
ID EASTER-ISLAND; INSTITUTIONS; POPULATION
AB There are widespread concerns that current trends in resource-use are unsustainable, but possibilities of overshoot/collapse remain controversial. Collapses have occurred frequently in history, often followed by centuries of economic, intellectual, and population decline. Many different natural and social phenomena have been invoked to explain specific collapses, but a general explanation remains elusive.
   In this paper, we build a human population dynamics model by adding accumulated wealth and economic inequality to a predator-prey model of humans and nature. The model structure, and simulated scenarios that offer significant implications, are explained. Four equations describe the evolution of Elites, Commoners, Nature, and Wealth. The model shows Economic Stratification or Ecological Strain can independently lead to collapse, in agreement with the historical record.
   The measure "Carrying Capacity" is developed and its estimation is shown to be a practical means for early detection of a collapse. Mechanisms leading to two types of collapses are discussed. The new dynamics of this model can also reproduce the irreversible collapses found in history. Collapse can be avoided, and population can reach a steady state at maximum carrying capacity if the rate of depletion of nature is reduced to a sustainable level and if resources are distributed equitably. (C) 2014 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V.
C1 [Motesharrei, Safa] Univ Maryland, Sch Publ Policy, College Pk, MD 20742 USA.
   [Motesharrei, Safa] Univ Maryland, Dept Math, College Pk, MD 20742 USA.
   [Rivas, Jorge] Univ Minnesota, Dept Polit Sci, Minneapolis, MN 55455 USA.
   [Kalnay, Eugenia] Univ Maryland, Dept Atmospher & Ocean Sci, College Pk, MD 20742 USA.
   [Kalnay, Eugenia] Univ Maryland, Inst Phys Sci & Technol, College Pk, MD 20742 USA.
C3 University System of Maryland; University of Maryland College Park;
   University System of Maryland; University of Maryland College Park;
   University of Minnesota System; University of Minnesota Twin Cities;
   University System of Maryland; University of Maryland College Park;
   University System of Maryland; University of Maryland College Park
RP Motesharrei, S (corresponding author), Univ Maryland, Sch Publ Policy, College Pk, MD 20742 USA.
EM ssm@umd.edu; jorgerodrigorivas@gmail.com; ekalnay@atmos.umd.edu
RI ; rivas, jorge/KVB-4582-2024; Kalnay, Eugenia/F-4393-2010
OI Mote, Safa/0000-0001-5905-3842; Kalnay, Eugenia/0000-0002-9984-9906
FU NASA/GSFC [NNX12AD03A]; Direct For Biological Sciences; Div Of
   Biological Infrastructure [1052875] Funding Source: National Science
   Foundation; Div Of Biological Infrastructure; Direct For Biological
   Sciences [1639145] Funding Source: National Science Foundation; NASA
   [NNX12AD03A, 52866] Funding Source: Federal RePORTER
FX We are grateful to Profs. Matthias Ruth, Victor Yakovenko, Herman Daly,
   Takemasa Miyoshi, Jim Carton, Fernando Miralles-Wilhelm, and Ning Zeng,
   and Drs. Robert Cahalan and Steve Penny for many useful discussions.
   Study of the "Equitable Society" scenarios (i.e., with Workers and
   Non-Workers), the scenario presented in Section 5.2.5, in particular,
   was suggested by V. Yakovenko. We would also like to thank anonymous
   reviewer No. 1 for having highlighted to us the importance of the
   capability of HANDY to naturally produce irreversible collapses, which
   is not found in earlier models. We would especially like to thank the
   editors of this journal for alerting us to the model and work done by
   Brander and Taylor, of which we were unaware, and allowing us to revise
   our article to account for this new information. This work was partially
   funded through NASA/GSFC grant NNX12AD03A.
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NR 65
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PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE BV
PI AMSTERDAM
PA PO BOX 211, 1000 AE AMSTERDAM, NETHERLANDS
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EI 1873-6106
J9 ECOL ECON
JI Ecol. Econ.
PD MAY
PY 2014
VL 101
BP 90
EP 102
DI 10.1016/j.ecolecon.2014.02.014
PG 13
WC Ecology; Economics; Environmental Sciences; Environmental Studies
WE Science Citation Index Expanded (SCI-EXPANDED); Social Science Citation Index (SSCI)
SC Environmental Sciences & Ecology; Business & Economics
GA AH4SD
UT WOS:000336117400009
OA hybrid
DA 2026-06-14
ER

PT C
AU Grigg, NJ
   Boschetti, F
   Brede, M
   Finnigan, JJ
AF Grigg, N. J.
   Boschetti, F.
   Brede, M.
   Finnigan, J. J.
BE Cornell, S
   Downy, C
   Rounsevell, M
TI A probabilistic approach to exploring low-dimensional global dynamics
SO EARTH SYSTEM SCIENCE 2010: GLOBAL CHANGE, CLIMATE AND PEOPLE
SE Procedia Environmental Sciences
LA English
DT Proceedings Paper
CT Conference on Earth System Science (ESS) - Global Change, Climate and
   People
CY MAY 10-13, 2010
CL Edinburgh, SCOTLAND
SP Quantifying & Understanding Earth System, (QUEST)
DE Low-dimensional modeling; Carbon; Poplulation; GDP; Model uncertainty
AB We demonstrate an approach to low-dimensional modeling of world population, carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions and gross domestic product (GDP) interactions in a way that explicitly characterizes the variability in the data informing model assumptions and the uncertainty in functional relationships. Our model choice was informed by the following considerations and choices. First, even a low-dimensional conceptualization of the interactions between these three global variables requires a model to illuminate the consequences of chains of cause and effect and feedback loops. Such interactions warrant analysis as they offer insights into influences on aggregate global dynamics. Second, rates are constrained to be consistent with world datasets where feasible thereby embedding a data driven philosophy into the dynamic model. Third, a probabilistic approach offers an effective way to deal with uncertain specification of functional relationships and the variability inherent in data informing such relationships. We use the model to highlight key features that result from the relative rates of change in the system and the nature of the feedback loops. Such an aggregated analysis offers a useful lens through which to study and interpret more detailed and realistic integrated models of human-biosphere dynamics. (C) 2011 Published by Elsevier BV. Selection under responsibility of S. Cornell, C. Downy, S. Colston.
C1 [Grigg, N. J.] CSIRO Land & Water, GPO Box 1666, Canberra, ACT 2601, Australia.
   [Boschetti, F.; Brede, M.; Finnigan, J. J.] CSIRO Marine & Atmospher Res, Canberra, ACT 2601, Australia.
C3 Commonwealth Scientific & Industrial Research Organisation (CSIRO);
   CSIRO Land & Water; Commonwealth Scientific & Industrial Research
   Organisation (CSIRO)
RP Grigg, NJ (corresponding author), CSIRO Land & Water, GPO Box 1666, Canberra, ACT 2601, Australia.
EM nicky.grigg@csiro.au
RI Grigg, Nicola/H-1587-2011; Boschetti, Fabio/A-1607-2015
OI Grigg, Nicola/0000-0002-7601-3866; Boschetti, Fabio/0000-0001-8999-6913;
   Finnigan, John Joseph/0000-0003-1073-0886
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   Raupach MR, P NATL ACAD SC UNPUB
NR 7
TC 1
Z9 1
U1 0
U2 2
PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE BV
PI AMSTERDAM
PA SARA BURGERHARTSTRAAT 25, PO BOX 211, 1000 AE AMSTERDAM, NETHERLANDS
SN 1878-0296
J9 PROCEDIA ENVIRON SCI
PY 2011
VL 6
BP 122
EP 135
DI 10.1016/j.proenv.2011.05.013
PG 14
WC Environmental Sciences; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
WE Conference Proceedings Citation Index - Science (CPCI-S)
SC Environmental Sciences & Ecology; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
GA BDA10
UT WOS:000312268000012
OA gold
DA 2026-06-14
ER

EF