FN Clarivate Analytics Web of Science
VR 1.0
PT J
AU Maghsoodlo, YB
   Anand, M
   Bauch, CT
AF Babazadeh Maghsoodlo, Yazdan
   Anand, Madhur
   Bauch, Chris T.
TI Social dynamics can delay or prevent climate tipping points by speeding
   the adoption of climate change mitigation
SO PROCEEDINGS OF THE ROYAL SOCIETY A-MATHEMATICAL PHYSICAL AND ENGINEERING
   SCIENCES
LA English
DT Article
DE climate tipping points; social-climate dynamics; mitigation strategies;
   social learning rate
ID EARTH SYSTEM; LAND
AB Social dynamics are increasingly integrated into climate change models, yet tipping points in coupled social-climate systems remain understudied. This is concerning given that processes like permafrost thaw and forest dieback can trigger positive feedback loops that accelerate carbon release and global warming. We have developed a coupled model combining an Earth system component with a social behaviour model, each including tipping mechanisms. The climate model includes an additional carbon release term representing tipping reservoirs. The social model captures opinion dynamics shaped by social learning rates, mitigation costs and the strength of social norms. Our results show that weak social norms have little effect on tipping dynamics. However, faster social learning can delay or even prevent climate tipping by accelerating mitigation responses. Simulations reveal nonlinear, regime-dependent dynamics, with bifurcation-like behaviour separating tipping and no-tipping pathways. In some scenarios, a climate tipping point can trigger secondary tipping in social behaviour. Crucially, the model enables estimation of the time to tipping, offering a forward-looking risk measure. These findings underscore the importance of incorporating social feedbacks in climate models to better anticipate, and potentially avoid, catastrophic tipping events.
C1 [Babazadeh Maghsoodlo, Yazdan; Bauch, Chris T.] Univ Waterloo, Dept Appl Math, Waterloo, ON, Canada.
   [Babazadeh Maghsoodlo, Yazdan; Anand, Madhur] Univ Guelph, Sch Environm Sci, Guelph, ON, Canada.
C3 University of Waterloo; University of Guelph
RP Maghsoodlo, YB (corresponding author), Univ Waterloo, Dept Appl Math, Waterloo, ON, Canada.; Maghsoodlo, YB (corresponding author), Univ Guelph, Sch Environm Sci, Guelph, ON, Canada.
EM ybabazad@uwaterloo.ca
OI Bauch, Chris/0000-0001-6214-6601; Babazadeh, Yazdan/0009-0006-3958-9862
FU Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada (NSERC)
FX This research was funded by Natural Sciences and Engineering Research
   Council of Canada (NSERC) Discovery Grants to Chris T. Bauch and Madhur
   Anand.
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NR 58
TC 2
Z9 2
U1 2
U2 3
PU ROYAL SOC
PI LONDON
PA 6-9 CARLTON HOUSE TERRACE, LONDON SW1Y 5AG, ENGLAND
SN 1364-5021
EI 1471-2946
J9 P ROY SOC A-MATH PHY
JI Proc. R. Soc. A-Math. Phys. Eng. Sci.
PD SEP 17
PY 2025
VL 481
IS 2322
AR 20250376
DI 10.1098/rspa.2025.0376
PG 13
WC Multidisciplinary Sciences
WE Science Citation Index Expanded (SCI-EXPANDED)
SC Science & Technology - Other Topics
GA 7IQ8L
UT WOS:001571933400006
DA 2026-06-14
ER

PT J
AU Bechthold, M
   Barfuss, W
   Butz, A
   Breier, J
   Constantino, S
   Heitzig, J
   Schwarz, L
   Vardag, S
   Donges, J
AF Bechthold, Max
   Barfuss, Wolfram
   Butz, Andre
   Breier, Jannes
   Constantino, Sara M.
   Heitzig, Jobst
   Schwarz, Luana
   Vardag, Sanam N.
   Donges, Jonathan F.
TI Social norms and groups structure safe operating spaces in renewable
   resource use in a social-ecological multi-layer network model
SO EARTH SYSTEM DYNAMICS
LA English
DT Article
ID EARTH SYSTEM-ANALYSIS; COLLECTIVE ACTION; DESCRIPTIVE NORMS; SUSTAINABLE
   USE; CLIMATE-CHANGE; HUMAN-BEHAVIOR; REGIME SHIFTS; DYNAMICS; EVOLUTION;
   ANTHROPOCENE
AB Social norms are a key socio-cultural driver of human behaviour and have been identified as a central process in potential social tipping dynamics. They play a central role in governance and thus represent a possible intervention point for collective action problems in the Anthropocene, such as natural resource management. A detailed modelling framework for social norm change is needed to capture the dynamics of human societies and their feedback interactions with the natural environment. To date, resource use models often incorporate social norms in an oversimplified manner, as a robust and detailed coupled social-ecological model, scaling from the local to the global world-Earth scale, is lacking. Here we present a multi-level network framework with a complex contagion process for modelling the dynamics of descriptive and injunctive social norms. The framework is complemented by social groups and their attitudes, which can significantly influence the adoption of social norms. We integrate the modelling concept of norms together with an additional individual learning component into a model of coupled social-ecological dynamics with a closed feedback loop, implemented in the copan:CORE framework for world-Earth modelling. We find that norms generally bifurcate the behaviour space into two extreme states: one sustainable and one unsustainable. Reaching a sustainable (i.e. safe) state becomes more likely with low thresholds of conforming to sustainable norms, as well as lower consideration rates of own resource harvesting success. Modelling both descriptive and injunctive norms independently and dynamically introduces additional intermediate states, e.g. when there are countervailing norms. The shape of the bifurcation depends on the number of groups and members and thus on the social network topology. Where groups are very inert in changing their attitudes and thus consistently convey the same norm, multiple stable basins for sustainability levels are found. Groups influence the dynamics by facilitating or inhibiting the contagion of sustainable behaviour by communicating their norms. The success of a generic social norm intervention is also found to be highly dependent on the group topology. Our findings suggest that explicitly modelling social norm processes together with social groups enriches the dynamics of social-ecological models and determines safe operating spaces. Consequently, both should be taken into account when representing human behaviour in coupled world-Earth models.
C1 [Bechthold, Max; Barfuss, Wolfram; Breier, Jannes; Schwarz, Luana; Donges, Jonathan F.] Potsdam Inst Climate Impact Res, Earth Syst Anal & Earth Resilience Sci Unit, Telegrafenberg A31, D-14473 Potsdam, Germany.
   [Bechthold, Max; Barfuss, Wolfram; Breier, Jannes; Heitzig, Jobst; Schwarz, Luana; Donges, Jonathan F.] Leibniz Assoc, Telegrafenberg A31, D-14473 Potsdam, Germany.
   [Bechthold, Max] Potsdam Univ, Inst Phys & Astron, Potsdam, Germany.
   [Barfuss, Wolfram] Univ Bonn, Ctr Dev Res ZEF, Genscherallee 3, D-53113 Bonn, Germany.
   [Butz, Andre; Vardag, Sanam N.] Heidelberg Univ, Inst Environm Phys, Neuenheimer Feld 229, D-69120 Heidelberg, Germany.
   [Constantino, Sara M.] Stanford Univ, Stanford Doerr Sch Sustainabil, Dept Environm Social Sci, Stanford, CA 94305 USA.
   [Heitzig, Jobst] Potsdam Inst Climate Impact Res, Complex Sci Dept, Telegrafenberg A31, D-14473 Potsdam, Germany.
   [Bechthold, Max; Schwarz, Luana; Donges, Jonathan F.] Max Planck Inst Geoanthropol, Dept Integrat Earth Syst Sci, Kahla Str 10, D-07745 Jena, Germany.
   [Donges, Jonathan F.] Stockholm Univ, Stockholm Resilience Ctr, Frescativagen 8, S-10691 Stockholm, Sweden.
   [Schwarz, Luana] Potsdam Univ, Inst Environm Sci & Geog, Potsdam, Germany.
C3 Potsdam Institut fur Klimafolgenforschung; University of Potsdam;
   University of Bonn; Ruprecht Karls University Heidelberg; Stanford
   University; Potsdam Institut fur Klimafolgenforschung; Max Planck
   Society; Stockholm University; University of Potsdam
RP Bechthold, M (corresponding author), Potsdam Inst Climate Impact Res, Earth Syst Anal & Earth Resilience Sci Unit, Telegrafenberg A31, D-14473 Potsdam, Germany.; Bechthold, M (corresponding author), Leibniz Assoc, Telegrafenberg A31, D-14473 Potsdam, Germany.; Bechthold, M (corresponding author), Potsdam Univ, Inst Phys & Astron, Potsdam, Germany.; Bechthold, M (corresponding author), Max Planck Inst Geoanthropol, Dept Integrat Earth Syst Sci, Kahla Str 10, D-07745 Jena, Germany.
EM maxbecht@pik-potsdam.de
RI Butz, Andre/A-7024-2013; Heitzig, Jobst/E-8271-2011
OI Vardag, Sanam/0000-0003-4959-9336; Barfuss, Wolfram/0000-0002-9077-5242;
   Schwarz, Luana/0000-0003-1726-1509; Bechthold, Max/0009-0007-7113-4814;
   Donges, Jonathan/0000-0001-5233-7703; Heitzig, Jobst/0000-0002-0442-8077
FU European Research Council
FX This work is based on a master's thesis at the University of Heidelberg,
   conducted externally at PIK's FutureLab on Earth Resilience in the
   Anthropocene. The research has been conceived in the scope of the Earth
   Resilience and Sustainability Initiative
   (https://www.earthresiliencesustainability.org, last access: 21 July
   2025). AI tools have been used for a grammar check on a previous version
   of this paper. The authors further acknowledge the support of Hannah
   Prawitz, Niklas Kitzmann, Leander John, Ronja Hotz, and Ricarda
   Winkelmann during the study.
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NR 128
TC 4
Z9 4
U1 2
U2 5
PU COPERNICUS GESELLSCHAFT MBH
PI GOTTINGEN
PA BAHNHOFSALLEE 1E, GOTTINGEN, 37081, GERMANY
SN 2190-4979
EI 2190-4987
J9 EARTH SYST DYNAM
JI Earth Syst. Dynam.
PD AUG 26
PY 2025
VL 16
IS 4
BP 1365
EP 1390
DI 10.5194/esd-16-1365-2025
PG 26
WC Geosciences, Multidisciplinary
WE Science Citation Index Expanded (SCI-EXPANDED)
SC Geology
GA 6LZ9X
UT WOS:001556552400001
OA Green Submitted, gold
DA 2026-06-14
ER

PT J
AU Frieswijk, K
   Zino, L
   Morse, AS
   Cao, M
AF Frieswijk, Kathinka
   Zino, Lorenzo
   Morse, A. Stephen
   Cao, Ming
TI A behavioural-environmental model to study the impact of climate change
   denial on environmental degradation
SO PHYSICA D-NONLINEAR PHENOMENA
LA English
DT Article
DE Climate change; Human behaviour; Mean-field; Modelling; Nonlinear ODEs;
   Oscillatory behaviour
ID SOCIAL-INFLUENCE; ECHO CHAMBERS; POLARIZATION; DYNAMICS; CONSERVATION;
   IMITATION; BELIEFS
AB Climate change is the biggest global threat facing humanity in the coming decades. The scientific community agrees that human activity has been responsible for virtually all global heating over the past two centuries, emphasising the urgent need for the collective adoption of environmentally responsible behaviour. In this paper, we propose a novel behavioural-environmental mathematical model that explores the complex and nonlinear co-evolution of human environmental behaviour and anthropogenic environmental degradation. Our model considers a population of individuals, which includes climate change deniers, interacting on a polarised population structure. In addition to addressing climate change denial, our framework captures other key aspects of the climate crisis by modelling human behaviour through a social learning mechanism inspired by game theory that accounts for social influence, environmental sensitivity, government policies, and the costs associated with environmental-friendly actions. By employing a mean-field approach in the limit of large populations, we derive an analytically tractable set of equations that is easy to simulate. By analysing this set of equations, we shed light into the emergent behaviour of the system. Under reasonable assumptions, we demonstrate global convergence to a periodic solution, with oscillations influenced by climate change deniers and polarisation in a non-trivial manner, as discussed via a campaign of numerical simulations.
C1 [Frieswijk, Kathinka; Cao, Ming] Univ Groningen, Engn & Technol Inst Groningen, Nijenborgh 4, NL-9747 AG Groningen, Netherlands.
   [Frieswijk, Kathinka] Publ Hlth Serv Groningen GGD Groningen, Hanzepl 120, NL-9713 GW Groningen, Netherlands.
   [Zino, Lorenzo] Politecn Torino, Dept Elect & Telecommun, Corso Duca Abruzzi 24, I-10129 Turin, Italy.
   [Morse, A. Stephen] Yale Univ, Dept Elect Engn, 17 Hillhouse Ave, New Haven, CT 06511 USA.
C3 University of Groningen; Polytechnic University of Turin; Yale
   University
RP Zino, L (corresponding author), Politecn Torino, Dept Elect & Telecommun, Corso Duca Abruzzi 24, I-10129 Turin, Italy.
EM kathinka.frieswijk@ggd.groningen.nl; lorenzo.zino@polito.it;
   as.morse@yale.edu; m.cao@rug.nl
RI Cao, Ming/L-5257-2016; Zino, Lorenzo/HKN-7117-2023
OI Cao, Ming/0000-0001-5472-562X; 
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NR 88
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Z9 2
U1 2
U2 6
PU ELSEVIER
PI AMSTERDAM
PA RADARWEG 29, 1043 NX AMSTERDAM, NETHERLANDS
SN 0167-2789
EI 1872-8022
J9 PHYSICA D
JI Physica D
PD JUN
PY 2025
VL 476
AR 134648
DI 10.1016/j.physd.2025.134648
EA APR 2025
PG 15
WC Mathematics, Applied; Physics, Fluids & Plasmas; Physics,
   Multidisciplinary; Physics, Mathematical
WE Science Citation Index Expanded (SCI-EXPANDED)
SC Mathematics; Physics
GA 1HJ5K
UT WOS:001465064800001
OA Green Published, hybrid
DA 2026-06-14
ER

PT J
AU Kumar, AS
   Bauch, CT
   Anand, M
AF Kumar, Athira Satheesh
   Bauch, Chris T.
   Anand, Madhur
TI Climate-denying rumor propagation in a coupled socio-climate model:
   Impact on average global temperature
SO PLOS ONE
LA English
DT Article
ID INFORMATION; BEHAVIOR
AB Individual attitudes vastly affect the transformations we are experiencing and are vital in mitigating or intensifying climate change. A socio-climate model by coupling a model of rumor dynamics in heterogeneous networks to a simple Earth System model is developed, in order to analyze how rumors about climate change impact individuals' opinions when they may choose to either believe or reject the rumors they come across over time. Our model assumes that when individuals experience an increase in the global temperature, they tend to not believe the rumors they come across. The rumor rejectors limit their CO2 emissions to reduce global temperature. Our numerical analysis indicates that, over time, the temperature anomaly becomes less affected by the variations in rumor propagation parameters, and having larger groups (having more members) is more efficient in reducing temperature (by efficiently propagating rumors) than having numerous small groups. It is observed that decreasing the number of individual connections does not reduce the size of the rejector population when there are large numbers of messages sent through groups. Mitigation strategies considered by the rejectors are highly influential. The absence of mitigative behavior in rejectors can cause an increase in the global average temperature by 0.5 degrees C. Our model indicates that rumor propagation in groups has the upper hand in controlling temperature change, compared to individual climate-denying propagation.
C1 [Kumar, Athira Satheesh; Bauch, Chris T.] Univ Waterloo, Dept Appl Math, Waterloo, ON, Canada.
   [Kumar, Athira Satheesh; Anand, Madhur] Univ Guelph, Sch Environm Sci, Guelph, ON, Canada.
C3 University of Waterloo; University of Guelph
RP Kumar, AS (corresponding author), Univ Waterloo, Dept Appl Math, Waterloo, ON, Canada.; Kumar, AS (corresponding author), Univ Guelph, Sch Environm Sci, Guelph, ON, Canada.
EM asathees@uwaterloo.ca
OI Satheesh Kumar, Athira/0009-0008-8863-285X
FU Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada (NSERC)
FX This research was funded by Natural Sciences and Engineering Research
   Council of Canada (NSERC) Discovery Grants to Chris T Bauch and Madhur
   Anand. The funders had no role in study design, data collection and
   analysis, decision to publish, or preparation of the manuscript.
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PU PUBLIC LIBRARY SCIENCE
PI SAN FRANCISCO
PA 1160 BATTERY STREET, STE 100, SAN FRANCISCO, CA 94111 USA
SN 1932-6203
J9 PLOS ONE
JI PLoS One
PD JAN 16
PY 2025
VL 20
IS 1
AR e0317338
DI 10.1371/journal.pone.0317338
PG 18
WC Multidisciplinary Sciences
WE Science Citation Index Expanded (SCI-EXPANDED)
SC Science & Technology - Other Topics
GA 0IN7O
UT WOS:001448205100107
PM 39820587
OA Green Submitted, gold
DA 2026-06-14
ER

PT J
AU Perri, S
   Levin, S
   Cerasoli, S
   Porporato, A
AF Perri, Saverio
   Levin, Simon
   Cerasoli, Sara
   Porporato, Amilcare
TI Socio-political dynamics in clean energy transition
SO ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS
LA English
DT Article
DE climate change; opinion dynamics; emission cuts; socio-political
   feedback; coupled human-natural systems
ID CLIMATE-CHANGE MITIGATION; LAND-USE CHANGE; CO2 FERTILIZATION; TIPPING
   POINTS; SOCIAL NORMS; BOTTOM-UP; TOP-DOWN; POLICY; MODELS; DICE
AB A rapid and effective transition to low-carbon energy production is essential to limit climate change impacts. While the scientific community has mostly focused on research and development and techno-economic aspects, quantifying the role of public acceptability and policy in shaping emission trajectories has been much more elusive. This study investigates the coupled dynamics of nonlinear socio-political acceptance and anthropogenic CO2 emissions, with implications for climate policies and clean energy investments. Our findings show that a top-down policy approach alone may not be sufficient for effective emission cuts, highlighting the need for a multi-level strategy that combines top-down and bottom-up approaches. Additionally, opinion polarization can trigger detrimental CO2 emission oscillations when governments decide to take heavy-handed policy interventions in highly polarized socio-political systems. Delayed perception of climate change damage or abrupt reactions to extreme weather events may also significantly affect emission reduction efforts, although in the opposite direction. Integrating these socio-political dynamics into climate models can enhance our understanding of the complex interplay between human and natural systems, enabling the development of more effective and resilient mitigation strategies.
C1 [Perri, Saverio] St Fe Inst, Santa Fe, NM 87501 USA.
   [Perri, Saverio; Levin, Simon; Porporato, Amilcare] Princeton Univ, High Meadows Environm Inst, Princeton, NJ 08544 USA.
   [Levin, Simon] Princeton Univ, Dept Ecol & Evolutionary Biol, Princeton, NJ USA.
   [Cerasoli, Sara; Porporato, Amilcare] Princeton Univ, Dept Civil & Environm Engn, Princeton, NJ USA.
C3 Princeton University; Princeton University; Princeton University
RP Perri, S (corresponding author), St Fe Inst, Santa Fe, NM 87501 USA.; Perri, S (corresponding author), Princeton Univ, High Meadows Environm Inst, Princeton, NJ 08544 USA.
EM sperri@princeton.edu
RI Porporato, Amilcare/ABD-4842-2022; Levin, Simon/J-1218-2014
OI Cerasoli, Sara/0000-0002-5999-6477; Levin, Simon/0000-0002-8216-5639;
   perri, saverio/0000-0001-6382-1381
FU Office of Applied Complexity at the Santa Fe Institute; Andlinger Center
   for Energy
FX S P and S L acknowledge the support of Princeton University Dean for
   Research, High Meadows Environmental Institute, Andlinger Center for
   Energy and the Environment through the grant 'Feeding the World in
   2020/Resilience, Adaptation, and Systemic Risk'. S P also acknowledges
   the support of the Office of Applied Complexity at the Santa Fe
   Institute.
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NR 121
TC 7
Z9 7
U1 3
U2 16
PU IOP Publishing Ltd
PI Bristol
PA No.2 The Distillery, Glassfields, Avon Street, Bristol, ENGLAND
SN 1748-9326
J9 ENVIRON RES LETT
JI Environ. Res. Lett.
PD JUL 1
PY 2024
VL 19
IS 7
AR 074017
DI 10.1088/1748-9326/ad5031
PG 11
WC Environmental Sciences; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
WE Science Citation Index Expanded (SCI-EXPANDED)
SC Environmental Sciences & Ecology; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
GA US4V6
UT WOS:001250043400001
OA Green Submitted, gold
DA 2026-06-14
ER

PT C
AU Frieswijk, K
   Zino, L
   Cao, M
   Morse, AS
AF Frieswijk, K.
   Zino, L.
   Cao, M.
   Morse, A. S.
TI Modeling the Co-evolution of Climate Impact and Population Behavior: A
   Mean-Field Analysis
SO IFAC PAPERSONLINE
LA English
DT Proceedings Paper
CT 22nd World Congress of the International Federation of Automatic Control
   (IFAC)
CY JUL 09-14, 2023
CL Yokohama, JAPAN
DE multi-agent systems; modeling and decision making in complex systems;
   climate
ID DYNAMICS
AB Motivated by the climate crisis currently ravaging the planet, we propose and analyze a novel framework for the coupled evolution of anthropogenic climate impact and human environmental behavior. Our framework includes a human decision-making process that captures social influence, government policy interventions, and the cost of acting environmentally friendly, modeled within a game-theoretic paradigm. By taking a mean-field approach at the limit of large populations, we derive the equilibria and their local stability characteristics. Subsequently, we study global convergence, showing that the system converges to a periodic solution for almost all initial conditions. Numerical simulations confirm our findings and suggest that the level of environmental impact might become dangerously high before the system reaches the periodic solution, calling for the design of optimal control strategies to influence the system trajectory.
   Copyright (c) 2023 The Authors. This is an open access article under the CC BY-NC-ND license (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/)
C1 [Frieswijk, K.; Cao, M.] Univ Groningen, Discrete Technol & Prod Automat, Engn & Technol Inst Groningen, Groningen, Netherlands.
   [Zino, L.] Politecn Torino, Dept Elect & Telecommun, Turin, Italy.
   [Morse, A. S.] Yale Univ, Dept Elect Engn, New Haven, CT 06511 USA.
C3 University of Groningen; Polytechnic University of Turin; Yale
   University
RP Frieswijk, K (corresponding author), Univ Groningen, Discrete Technol & Prod Automat, Engn & Technol Inst Groningen, Groningen, Netherlands.
EM k.frieswijk@rug.nl; lorenzo.zino@polito.it; m.cao@rug.nl;
   as.morse@yale.edu
RI Zino, Lorenzo/HKN-7117-2023; Cao, Ming/L-5257-2016
OI Zino, Lorenzo/0000-0002-0946-6523; Cao, Ming/0000-0001-5472-562X
FU European Research Council [ERC-CoG-771687]; US Air Force
   [FA9550-16-1-0290]
FX This work was partially supported by the European Research Council
   (ERC-CoG-771687) and by the US Air Force (grant n. FA9550-16-1-0290).
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NR 22
TC 4
Z9 4
U1 0
U2 2
PU ELSEVIER
PI AMSTERDAM
PA RADARWEG 29, 1043 NX AMSTERDAM, NETHERLANDS
SN 2405-8963
J9 IFAC PAPERSONLINE
JI IFAC PAPERSONLINE
PY 2023
VL 56
IS 2
BP 7381
EP 7386
DI 10.1016/j.ifacol.2023.10.355
EA NOV 2023
PG 6
WC Automation & Control Systems
WE Conference Proceedings Citation Index - Science (CPCI-S)
SC Automation & Control Systems
GA CA6B9
UT WOS:001122557300180
OA Green Submitted, gold
DA 2026-06-14
ER

PT J
AU Ecotière, C
   Billiard, S
   André, JB
   Collet, P
   Ferrière, R
   Méléard, S
AF Ecotiere, Claire
   Billiard, Sylvain
   Andre, Jean-Baptiste
   Collet, Pierre
   Ferriere, Regis
   Meleard, Sylvie
TI Human-environment feedback and the consistency of proenvironmental
   behavior
SO PLOS COMPUTATIONAL BIOLOGY
LA English
DT Article
ID CLIMATE-CHANGE; REGIME SHIFTS; DYNAMICS; TIME; RISK; COOPERATION;
   UNCERTAINTY; MODEL
AB Addressing global environmental crises such as anthropogenic climate change requires the consistent adoption of proenvironmental behavior by a large part of a population. Here, we develop a mathematical model of a simple behavior-environment feedback loop to ask how the individual assessment of the environmental state combines with social interactions to influence the consistent adoption of proenvironmental behavior, and how this feeds back to the perceived environmental state. In this stochastic individual-based model, individuals can switch between two behaviors, 'active' (or actively proenvironmental) and 'baseline', differing in their perceived cost (higher for the active behavior) and environmental impact (lower for the active behavior). We show that the deterministic dynamics and the stochastic fluctuations of the system can be approximated by ordinary differential equations and a Ornstein-Uhlenbeck type process. By definition, the proenvironmental behavior is adopted consistently when, at population stationary state, its frequency is high and random fluctuations in frequency are small. We find that the combination of social and environmental feedbacks can promote the spread of costly proenvironmental behavior when neither, operating in isolation, would. To be adopted consistently, strong social pressure for proenvironmental action is necessary but not sufficient-social interactions must occur on a faster timescale compared to individual assessment, and the difference in environmental impact must be small. This simple model suggests a scenario to achieve large reductions in environmental impact, which involves incrementally more active and potentially more costly behavior being consistently adopted under increasing social pressure for proenvironmentalism.
C1 [Ecotiere, Claire; Meleard, Sylvie] Ecole Polytech, IP Paris, CNRS, Ctr Math Appl, Palaiseau, France.
   [Billiard, Sylvain] Univ Lille, Evo Eco Paleo, CNRS, Lille, France.
   [Andre, Jean-Baptiste] PSL Res Univ, CNRS, Inst Jean Nicod, Dept Etud Cognit,ENS,EHESS, Paris, France.
   [Collet, Pierre] Ecole Polytech, IP Paris, CNRS, CPHT, Palaiseau, France.
   [Ferriere, Regis] INSERM, CNRS, ENS PSL, Inst Biol IBENS, Paris, France.
   [Ferriere, Regis] Univ Arizona, Ecol & Evolutionary Biol, Tucson, AZ USA.
   [Ferriere, Regis] Univ Arizona, iGLOBES Int Res Lab, CNRS, ENS PSL, Tucson, AZ USA.
   [Meleard, Sylvie] Inst Univ France, Paris, France.
C3 Institut Polytechnique de Paris; ENSTA Paris; Centre National de la
   Recherche Scientifique (CNRS); Ecole Polytechnique; Centre National de
   la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS); Universite de Lille; Universite PSL;
   Ecole Normale Superieure (ENS); Centre National de la Recherche
   Scientifique (CNRS); Institut Polytechnique de Paris; Ecole
   Polytechnique; Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS);
   Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS); Universite PSL;
   Ecole Normale Superieure (ENS); Institut National de la Sante et de la
   Recherche Medicale (Inserm); University of Arizona; University of
   Arizona; Institut Universitaire de France
RP Ecotière, C (corresponding author), Ecole Polytech, IP Paris, CNRS, Ctr Math Appl, Palaiseau, France.
EM claire.ecotiere@polytechnique.edu
RI ; billiard, sylvain/A-2108-2009; Collet, Pierre/B-4723-2009
OI Ecotiere, Claire/0000-0001-9022-3950; Collet, Pierre/0000-0002-5284-4702
FU We thank Sylvie Dmurger, Jean-Stphane Dhersion and the team of the
   <italic>Mission pour les Initiatives Transverses et
   Interdisciplinaires</italic> at the French National Center for
   Scientific Research (CNRS) for the initial impetus and sup
FX We thank Sylvie Demurger, Jean-Stephane Dhersion and the team of the
   <ITALIC>Mission pour les Initiatives Transverses et
   Interdisciplinaires</ITALIC> at the French National Center for
   Scientific Research (CNRS) for the initial impetus and support to
   develop this research program. We are grateful for the stimulating work
   environment that the summer school organized by the Chair "Modelisation
   Mathematique et Biodiversite" has provided.
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NR 55
TC 6
Z9 6
U1 2
U2 11
PU PUBLIC LIBRARY SCIENCE
PI SAN FRANCISCO
PA 1160 BATTERY STREET, STE 100, SAN FRANCISCO, CA 94111 USA
SN 1553-734X
EI 1553-7358
J9 PLOS COMPUT BIOL
JI PLoS Comput. Biol.
PD SEP
PY 2023
VL 19
IS 9
AR e1011429
DI 10.1371/journal.pcbi.1011429
PG 22
WC Biochemical Research Methods; Mathematical & Computational Biology
WE Science Citation Index Expanded (SCI-EXPANDED)
SC Biochemistry & Molecular Biology; Mathematical & Computational Biology
GA HI8C1
UT WOS:001158949700001
PM 37721943
OA Green Submitted, gold
DA 2026-06-14
ER

PT J
AU Perri, S
   Levin, S
   Hedin, LO
   Wunderling, N
   Porporato, A
AF Perri, Saverio
   Levin, Simon
   Hedin, Lars O.
   Wunderling, Nico
   Porporato, Amilcare
TI Socio-political feedback on the path to net zero
SO ONE EARTH
LA English
DT Article
ID HEALTH CO-BENEFITS; CLIMATE-CHANGE; CLEAN ENERGY; DOMESTIC POLITICS;
   CARBON CAPTURE; POLICY; TRANSITION; TAX; PREFERENCES; COOPERATION
AB Anthropogenic CO2 emissions must soon approach net zero to stabilize the global mean temperature. Although several international agreements have advocated for coordinated climate actions, their implementation has remained below expectations. One of the main challenges of international cooperation is different degrees of socio-political acceptance of decarbonization. Here, we interrogate a minimalistic model of the coupled human-natural system representing the impact of such socio-political acceptance on investments in clean energy infrastructure and the path to net-zero emissions. Despite its simplicity, the model can reproduce complex interactions between human and natural systems, and it can disentangle the effects climate policies from those of socio-political acceptance on the path to net zero. Although perfect coordination remains unlikely, because clean energy investments are limited by myopic economic strategies and policy systems that promote free-riding, more realistic decentralized cooperation with partial efforts from each actor could still lead to significant cuts in emissions.
C1 [Perri, Saverio; Levin, Simon; Hedin, Lars O.; Porporato, Amilcare] Princeton Univ, High Meadows Environm Inst, Guyot Hall, Princeton, NJ 08544 USA.
   [Levin, Simon; Hedin, Lars O.; Porporato, Amilcare] Princeton Univ, Ecol & Evolutionary Biol, 106A Guyot Ln, Princeton, NJ 08544 USA.
   [Wunderling, Nico] Potsdam Inst Climate Impact Res PIK, Earth Syst Anal, Telegrafenberg 31, D-14473 Potsdam, Germany.
   [Wunderling, Nico] Stockholm Univ, Stockholm Resilience Ctr, Albanovagen 28, S-10691 Stockholm, Sweden.
   [Porporato, Amilcare] Princeton Univ, Dept Civil & Environm Engn, 59 Olden St, Princeton, NJ 08540 USA.
C3 Princeton University; Princeton University; Potsdam Institut fur
   Klimafolgenforschung; Stockholm University; Princeton University
RP Perri, S (corresponding author), Princeton Univ, High Meadows Environm Inst, Guyot Hall, Princeton, NJ 08544 USA.
EM sperri@princeton.edu
RI ; Porporato, Amilcare/ABD-4842-2022; Levin, Simon/J-1218-2014;
   Wunderling, Nico/PTF-4644-2026
OI Wunderling, Nico/0000-0002-3566-323X; Porporato,
   Amilcare/0000-0001-9378-207X; Levin, Simon/0000-0002-8216-5639; perri,
   saverio/0000-0001-6382-1381
FU Princeton University; Office of the Provost International Fund; US
   National Science Foundation (NSF) [EAR-1331846, EAR-1338694]; BP through
   the Carbon Mitigation Initiative at Princeton University; Moore
   Foundation; European Research Council Advanced Grant Project ERA
   [ERC-2016-ADG-743080]; High Meadows Environmental Institute; Andlinger
   Center for Energy and the Environment
FX Funding in support of this research was provided by Princeton University
   Dean for Research, High Meadows Environmental Institute, Andlinger
   Center for Energy and the Environment, and the Office of the Provost
   International Fund. We also acknowledge support from the US National
   Science Foundation (NSF) grant nos. EAR-1331846 and EAR-1338694, the BP
   through the Carbon Mitigation Initiative at Princeton University, the
   Moore Foundation, and the European Research Council Advanced Grant
   Project ERA (ERC-2016-ADG-743080).
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NR 186
TC 7
Z9 8
U1 1
U2 22
PU CELL PRESS
PI CAMBRIDGE
PA 50 HAMPSHIRE ST, FLOOR 5, CAMBRIDGE, MA 02139 USA
SN 2590-3330
EI 2590-3322
J9 ONE EARTH
JI One Earth
PD JUN 16
PY 2023
VL 6
IS 6
BP 725
EP 737
DI 10.1016/j.oneear.2023.05.011
EA JUN 2023
PG 14
WC Green & Sustainable Science & Technology; Environmental Sciences;
   Environmental Studies
WE Science Citation Index Expanded (SCI-EXPANDED); Social Science Citation Index (SSCI)
SC Science & Technology - Other Topics; Environmental Sciences & Ecology
GA O4NG0
UT WOS:001043592000001
DA 2026-06-14
ER

PT J
AU Gong, LL
   Yao, WJ
   Gao, J
   Cao, M
AF Gong, Lulu
   Yao, Weijia
   Gao, Jian
   Cao, Ming
TI Limit cycles analysis and control of evolutionary game dynamics with
   environmental feedback
SO AUTOMATICA
LA English
DT Article
DE Replicator-mutator dynamics; Game-environment feedback; Limit cycles;
   Hopf bifurcation; Heteroclinic bifurcation; Local and global stability;
   Incentive-based control
ID POPULATION-DYNAMICS
AB Recently, an evolutionary game dynamics model taking into account the environmental feedback has been proposed to describe the co-evolution of strategic actions of a population of individuals and the state of the surrounding environment; correspondingly a range of interesting dynamic behaviors have been reported. In this paper, we provide new theoretical insight into such behaviors and discuss control options. Instead of the standard replicator dynamics, we use a more realistic and comprehensive model of replicator-mutator dynamics, to describe the strategic evolution of the population. After integrating the environment feedback, we study the effect of mutations on the resulting closed-loop system dynamics. We prove the conditions for two types of bifurcations, Hopf bifurcation and Heteroclinic bifurcation, both of which result in stable limit cycles. These limit cycles have not been identified in existing works, and we further prove that such limit cycles are in fact persistent in a large parameter space and are almost globally stable. In the end, an intuitive control policy based on incentives is applied, and the effectiveness of this control policy is examined by analysis and simulations.(c) 2022 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an open access article under the CC BY license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/).
C1 [Gong, Lulu; Yao, Weijia; Cao, Ming] Univ Groningen, Fac Sci & Engn, ENTEG, NL-9747 AG Groningen, Netherlands.
   [Gao, Jian] Beijing Univ Posts & Telecommun, Sch Sci, Beijing 100876, Peoples R China.
C3 University of Groningen; Beijing University of Posts &
   Telecommunications
RP Cao, M (corresponding author), Univ Groningen, Fac Sci & Engn, ENTEG, NL-9747 AG Groningen, Netherlands.
EM l.gong@rug.nl; w.yao@rug.nl; gao.jian@bupt.edu.cn; m.cao@rug.nl
RI ; Yao, Weijia/JMQ-5571-2023; Cao, Ming/B-6808-2013; Gao,
   Jian/ABI-2947-2020
OI Gong, Lulu/0000-0002-8392-6348; Yao, Weijia/0000-0003-0361-6620; Cao,
   Ming/0000-0001-5472-562X; 
FU European Research Council [ERC-CoG-771687]; China Scholarship Council
   (CSC)
FX The work of M. Cao is supported in part by the European Research Council
   (ERC-CoG-771687) . L. Gong, W. Yao, and J. Gao are funded by China
   Scholarship Council (CSC) . The material in this paper was partially
   presented at the 21st IFAC World Congress (IFAC 2020) , July 12-17,
   2020, Berlin, Germany. This paper was recommended for publication in
   revised form by Associate Editor Kostas Margellos under the direction of
   Editor Christos G. Cassandras.
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PU PERGAMON-ELSEVIER SCIENCE LTD
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EI 1873-2836
J9 AUTOMATICA
JI Automatica
PD NOV
PY 2022
VL 145
AR 110536
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EA AUG 2022
PG 12
WC Automation & Control Systems; Engineering, Electrical & Electronic
WE Science Citation Index Expanded (SCI-EXPANDED)
SC Automation & Control Systems; Engineering
GA 5A9CD
UT WOS:000863176200007
OA Green Submitted, Green Published, hybrid
DA 2026-06-14
ER

PT J
AU Moore, FC
   Lacasse, K
   Mach, KJ
   Shin, YA
   Gross, LJ
   Beckage, B
AF Moore, Frances C.
   Lacasse, Katherine
   Mach, Katharine J.
   Shin, Yoon Ah
   Gross, Louis J.
   Beckage, Brian
TI Determinants of emissions pathways in the coupled climate-social system
SO NATURE
LA English
DT Article
ID GREENHOUSE-GAS CONCENTRATIONS; CARBON FOOTPRINTS AFFECT; NORMS;
   TEMPERATURE; BEHAVIOR; MODELS; EXTENSIONS; INNOVATION; DIFFUSION;
   BELIEFS
AB The ambition and effectiveness of climate policies will be essential in determining greenhouse gas emissions and, as a consequence, the scale of climate change impacts(1,2). However, the socio-politico-technical processes that will determine climate policy and emissions trajectories are treated as exogenous in almost all climate change modelling(3,4). Here we identify relevant feedback processes documented across a range of disciplines and connect them in a stylized model of the climate-social system. An analysis of model behaviour reveals the potential for nonlinearities and tipping points that are particularly associated with connections across the individual, community, national and global scales represented. These connections can be decisive for determining policy and emissions outcomes. After partly constraining the model parameter space using observations, we simulate 100,000 possible future policy and emissions trajectories. These fall into 5 clusters with warming in 2100 ranging between 1.8 degrees C and 3.6 degrees C above the 1880-1910 average. Public perceptions of climate change, the future cost and effectiveness of mitigation technologies, and the responsiveness of political institutions emerge as important in explaining variation in emissions pathways and therefore the constraints on warming over the twenty-first century.
C1 [Moore, Frances C.] Univ Calif Davis, Dept Environm Sci & Policy, Davis, CA 95616 USA.
   [Lacasse, Katherine] Rhode Isl Coll, Dept Psychol, Providence, RI 02908 USA.
   [Mach, Katharine J.] Univ Miami, Rosenstiel Sch Marine & Atmospher Sci, Dept Environm Sci & Policy, 4600 Rickenbacker Causeway, Miami, FL 33149 USA.
   [Mach, Katharine J.] Univ Miami, Leonard & Jayne Abess Ctr Ecosyst Sci & Policy, Miami, FL USA.
   [Shin, Yoon Ah] Arizona State Univ, Global Futures Lab, Tempe, AZ USA.
   [Gross, Louis J.] Univ Tennessee, Dept Ecol & Evolutionary Biol, Knoxville, TN USA.
   [Gross, Louis J.] Univ Tennessee, Dept Math, Knoxville, TN 37996 USA.
   [Beckage, Brian] Univ Vermont, Dept Plant Biol, Burlington, VT USA.
   [Beckage, Brian] Univ Vermont, Dept Comp Sci, Burlington, VT USA.
   [Beckage, Brian] Univ Vermont, Gund Inst Environm, Burlington, VT USA.
C3 University of California System; University of California Davis; Rhode
   Island College; University of Miami; University of Miami; Arizona State
   University; Arizona State University-Tempe; University of Tennessee
   System; University of Tennessee Knoxville; University of Tennessee
   System; University of Tennessee Knoxville; University of Vermont;
   University of Vermont; University of Vermont
RP Moore, FC (corresponding author), Univ Calif Davis, Dept Environm Sci & Policy, Davis, CA 95616 USA.
EM fmoore@ucdavis.edu
OI Lacasse, Katherine/0000-0002-3413-9815; Moore,
   Frances/0000-0003-3866-9642; Gross, Louis/0000-0002-1149-8006; Shin,
   Yoon Ah/0000-0002-2173-6207
FU National Socio-Environmental Synthesis Center (SESYNC) under National
   Science Foundation (NSF) [DBI-1052875]; National Science Foundation
   (NSF) [DBI-1052875]; NSF [1924378, 1300426]; NSF under EPSCoR
   [OIA-1655221]; National Science Foundation through VT EPSCoR [1556770];
   Direct For Biological Sciences [1924378] Funding Source: National
   Science Foundation; Division Of Environmental Biology [1924378] Funding
   Source: National Science Foundation
FX We thank S. Metcalf, D. Rothman, T. Franck and A. Kinzig for discussions
   and comments on this work. This work resulted from a working group
   supported by the National Socio-Environmental Synthesis Center (SESYNC)
   under funding received from the National Science Foundation (NSF)
   DBI-1052875. F.C.M. acknowledges the support of NSF (award no. 1924378).
   K.L. acknowledges the support of the NSF under EPSCoR Cooperative
   Agreement OIA-1655221. L.J.G. acknowledges the support of NSF (award no.
   1300426 to the National Institute for Mathematical and Biological
   Synthesis). B.B. acknowledges the support of the National Science
   Foundation through VT EPSCoR (award no. 1556770).
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NR 102
TC 181
Z9 215
U1 7
U2 348
PU NATURE PORTFOLIO
PI BERLIN
PA HEIDELBERGER PLATZ 3, BERLIN, 14197, GERMANY
SN 0028-0836
EI 1476-4687
J9 NATURE
JI Nature
PD MAR 3
PY 2022
VL 603
IS 7899
BP 103
EP +
DI 10.1038/s41586-022-04423-8
EA FEB 2022
PG 21
WC Multidisciplinary Sciences
WE Science Citation Index Expanded (SCI-EXPANDED); Social Science Citation Index (SSCI)
SC Science & Technology - Other Topics
GA ZL3UV
UT WOS:000756344000001
PM 35173331
OA Bronze
HC Y
HP N
DA 2026-06-14
ER

PT J
AU Pal, S
   Bauch, CT
   Anand, M
AF Pal, Saptarshi
   Bauch, Chris T.
   Anand, Madhur
TI Coupled social and land use dynamics affect dietary choice and
   agricultural land-use extent
SO COMMUNICATIONS EARTH & ENVIRONMENT
LA English
DT Article
ID GREENHOUSE-GAS MITIGATION; IMITATION DYNAMICS; MENTAL MODELS; FOOD;
   MEAT; COOPERATION; CONSUMPTION; VACCINATION; TECHNOLOGY; POPULATION
AB Dietary patterns have long been a driver of global land use. Increasingly, they also respond to it, in part because of social processes that support adoption of eco-conscious diets. Here we develop a coupled social-and-land use mathematical model parameterised for 153 countries. We project global land use for future population, income, and agricultural yield using our coupled dynamical model. We find that coupled social-and-land feedbacks can alter the peak global land use for agriculture by up to 2 billion hectares, depending on the parameter regime. Across all yield scenarios, the model projects that social dynamics will cause an increase in eco-conscious dietary behaviour until the middle of the 21st century, after which it will decline in response to declining land use caused by a shrinking global population. The model also exhibits a regime of synergistic effects whereby simultaneous changes to multiple socio-economic parameters are required to change land use projections. This research demonstrates the value of including coupled social-and-land feedbacks in land use projections.
   Social learning processes regarding eco-conscious dietary choices can substantially alter projections of global peak land use for agriculture, according to a coupled social-and-land use dynamics model
C1 [Pal, Saptarshi; Bauch, Chris T.] Univ Waterloo, Dept Appl Math, Waterloo, ON, Canada.
   [Pal, Saptarshi; Anand, Madhur] Univ Guelph, Sch Environm Sci, Guelph, ON, Canada.
C3 University of Waterloo; University of Guelph
RP Anand, M (corresponding author), Univ Guelph, Sch Environm Sci, Guelph, ON, Canada.
EM manand@uoguelph.ca
OI Bauch, Chris/0000-0001-6214-6601
FU Canada First Research Excellence Fund; James S. McDonnell Foundation;
   NSERC Discovery
FX This work was supported by the Canada First Research Excellence Fund and
   the James S. McDonnell Foundation (both to M.A.) and the NSERC Discovery
   (to both M.A. and C.T.B.).
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NR 54
TC 6
Z9 6
U1 1
U2 21
PU SPRINGERNATURE
PI LONDON
PA CAMPUS, 4 CRINAN ST, LONDON, N1 9XW, ENGLAND
EI 2662-4435
J9 COMMUN EARTH ENVIRON
JI Commun. Earth Environ.
PD SEP 30
PY 2021
VL 2
IS 1
AR 204
DI 10.1038/s43247-021-00255-y
PG 11
WC Environmental Sciences; Geosciences, Multidisciplinary; Meteorology &
   Atmospheric Sciences
WE Science Citation Index Expanded (SCI-EXPANDED)
SC Environmental Sciences & Ecology; Geology; Meteorology & Atmospheric
   Sciences
GA UZ7JD
UT WOS:000702377200002
OA Green Submitted, gold
DA 2026-06-14
ER

PT J
AU Menard, J
   Bury, TM
   Bauch, CT
   Anand, M
AF Menard, Jyler
   Bury, Thomas M.
   Bauch, Chris T.
   Anand, Madhur
TI When conflicts get heated, so does the planet: coupled social-climate
   dynamics under inequality
SO PROCEEDINGS OF THE ROYAL SOCIETY B-BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES
LA English
DT Article
DE social-climate models; evolutionary game theory; mathematical modelling;
   imitation dynamics; social-ecological systems; climate change
ID HUMAN-BEHAVIOR; MODELS; EARTH; COMPETITION; FAIRNESS; POLICIES
AB Climate dynamics are inextricably linked to processes in social systems that are highly unequal. This suggests a need for coupled social-climate models that capture pervasive real-world asymmetries in the population distribution of the consequences of anthropogenic climate change and climate (in)action. Here, we use evolutionary game theory to develop a social-climate model with group structure to investigate how anthropogenic climate change and population heterogeneity coevolve. We find that greater homophily and resource inequality cause an increase in the global peak temperature anomaly by as much as 0.7 degrees C. Also, climate change can structure human populations by driving opinion polarization. Finally, climate mitigation achieved by reducing the cost of mitigation measures paid by individuals tends to be contingent upon socio-economic conditions, whereas policies that achieve communication between different strata of society show climate mitigation benefits across a broad socio-economic regime. We conclude that advancing climate change mitigation efforts can benefit from a social-climate systems perspective.
C1 [Menard, Jyler; Bury, Thomas M.; Bauch, Chris T.] Univ Waterloo, Dept Appl Math, Waterloo, ON N2L 3G1, Canada.
   [Bury, Thomas M.] McGill Univ, Dept Physiol, Montreal, PQ H3G 1Y6, Canada.
   [Bury, Thomas M.; Anand, Madhur] Univ Guelph, Sch Environm Sci, Guelph, ON N1G 2W1, Canada.
C3 University of Waterloo; McGill University; University of Guelph
RP Anand, M (corresponding author), Univ Guelph, Sch Environm Sci, Guelph, ON N1G 2W1, Canada.
EM manand@uoguelph.ca
RI Bury, Thomas M/ABG-4131-2021; Menard, Jyler/LZH-6645-2025
OI Bury, Thomas M/0000-0003-1595-9444; Bauch, Chris/0000-0001-6214-6601; 
FU Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada (NSERC); New
   Frontiers in Research Fund (NFRF) Exploration grant
FX This research was supported by Natural Sciences and Engineering Research
   Council of Canada (NSERC) Discovery grants and a New Frontiers in
   Research Fund (NFRF) Exploration grant to M.A. and C.T.B.
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NR 52
TC 13
Z9 15
U1 1
U2 22
PU ROYAL SOC
PI LONDON
PA 6-9 CARLTON HOUSE TERRACE, LONDON SW1Y 5AG, ENGLAND
SN 0962-8452
EI 1471-2954
J9 P ROY SOC B-BIOL SCI
JI Proc. R. Soc. B-Biol. Sci.
PD SEP 8
PY 2021
VL 288
IS 1958
AR 20211357
DI 10.1098/rspb.2021.1357
PG 10
WC Biology; Ecology; Evolutionary Biology
WE Science Citation Index Expanded (SCI-EXPANDED); Social Science Citation Index (SSCI)
SC Life Sciences & Biomedicine - Other Topics; Environmental Sciences &
   Ecology; Evolutionary Biology
GA UQ1DS
UT WOS:000695812400004
PM 34521252
OA Green Submitted, hybrid
DA 2026-06-14
ER

PT J
AU Müller, PM
   Heitzig, J
   Kurths, J
   Lüdge, K
   Wiedermann, M
AF Mueller, Paul Manuel
   Heitzig, Jobst
   Kurths, Juergen
   Luedge, Kathy
   Wiedermann, Marc
TI Anticipation-induced social tipping: can the environment be stabilised
   by social dynamics?
SO EUROPEAN PHYSICAL JOURNAL-SPECIAL TOPICS
LA English
DT Article
AB In the past decades, human activities caused global Earth system changes, e.g., climate change or biodiversity loss. Simultaneously, these associated impacts have increased environmental awareness within societies across the globe, thereby leading to dynamical feedbacks between the social and natural Earth system. Contemporary modelling attempts of Earth system dynamics rarely incorporate such co-evolutions and interactions are mostly studied unidirectionally through direct or remembered past impacts. Acknowledging that societies have the additional capability for foresight, this work proposes a conceptual feedback model of socio-ecological co-evolution with the specific construct of anticipation acting as a mediator between the social and natural system. Our model reproduces results from previous sociological threshold models with bistability if one assumes a static environment. Once the environment changes in response to societal behaviour, the system instead converges towards a globally stable, but not necessarily desired, attractor. Ultimately, we show that anticipation of future ecological states then leads to metastability of the system where desired states can persist for a long time. We thereby demonstrate that foresight and anticipation form an important mechanism which, once its time horizon becomes large enough, fosters social tipping towards behaviour that can stabilise the environment and prevents potential socio-ecological collapse.
C1 [Mueller, Paul Manuel; Heitzig, Jobst; Wiedermann, Marc] Leibniz Assoc, Potsdam Inst Climate Impact Res, FutureLab Game Theory & Networks Interacting Agen, POB 60 12 03, D-14412 Potsdam, Germany.
   [Mueller, Paul Manuel; Luedge, Kathy] Tech Univ Berlin, Inst Theoret Phys, Hardenbergstr 36, D-10623 Berlin, Germany.
   [Mueller, Paul Manuel] Charit Univ Med Berlin, Dept Neurol, Charitepl 1, D-10117 Berlin, Germany.
   [Kurths, Juergen] Leibniz Assoc, Potsdam Inst Climate Impact Res, Dept Complex Sci, POB 60 12 03, D-14412 Potsdam, Germany.
   [Kurths, Juergen] Sechenov First Moscow State Med Univ, Ctr Anal Complex Syst, Moscow, Russia.
C3 Potsdam Institut fur Klimafolgenforschung; Technical University of
   Berlin; Free University of Berlin; Humboldt University of Berlin;
   Charite Universitatsmedizin Berlin; Potsdam Institut fur
   Klimafolgenforschung; Sechenov First Moscow State Medical University
RP Müller, PM (corresponding author), Leibniz Assoc, Potsdam Inst Climate Impact Res, FutureLab Game Theory & Networks Interacting Agen, POB 60 12 03, D-14412 Potsdam, Germany.; Müller, PM (corresponding author), Tech Univ Berlin, Inst Theoret Phys, Hardenbergstr 36, D-10623 Berlin, Germany.; Müller, PM (corresponding author), Charit Univ Med Berlin, Dept Neurol, Charitepl 1, D-10117 Berlin, Germany.
EM paul-manuel.mueller@charite.de
RI Kurths, Juergen/I-4366-2013; Lüdge, Kathy/GWC-4745-2022; Heitzig,
   Jobst/E-8271-2011
OI Kurths, Juergen/0000-0002-5926-4276; Lüdge, Kathy/0000-0002-4831-8910;
   Wiedermann, Marc/0000-0001-9869-3789; Müller, Paul
   Manuel/0000-0002-9459-7586
FU Projekt DEAL; Leibniz Association (project DOMINOES); Russian Ministry
   of Science and Education "Digital biodesign and personalised
   healthcare"; European Regional Development Fund; BMBF; Land Brandenburg
FX Open Access funding enabled and organized by Projekt DEAL. The European
   Regional Development Fund, BMBF, and the Land Brandenburg supported this
   project by providing resources on the high-performance computer system
   at the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research. M.W. is supported
   by the Leibniz Association (project DOMINOES). J.K. acknowledges support
   from the Russian Ministry of Science and Education "Digital biodesign
   and personalised healthcare".
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U1 0
U2 15
PU SPRINGER HEIDELBERG
PI HEIDELBERG
PA TIERGARTENSTRASSE 17, D-69121 HEIDELBERG, GERMANY
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EI 1951-6401
J9 EUR PHYS J-SPEC TOP
JI Eur. Phys. J.-Spec. Top.
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PY 2021
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IS 16-17
SI SI
BP 3189
EP 3199
DI 10.1140/epjs/s11734-021-00011-5
EA APR 2021
PG 11
WC Physics, Multidisciplinary
WE Science Citation Index Expanded (SCI-EXPANDED); Social Science Citation Index (SSCI)
SC Physics
GA WX9JI
UT WOS:000644343100003
OA Green Submitted, hybrid
DA 2026-06-14
ER

PT J
AU Barfuss, W
   Donges, JF
   Vasconcelos, VV
   Kurths, JU
   Levin, SA
AF Barfuss, Wolfra
   Donges, Jonathan F.
   Vasconcelos, Vitor V.
   Kurths, Juergen
   Levin, Simon A.
TI Caring for the future can turn tragedy into comedy for long-term
   collective action under risk of collapse
SO PROCEEDINGS OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES OF THE UNITED STATES OF
   AMERICA
LA English
DT Article
DE social dilemma; stochastic game; tipping element; time preferences
ID CLIMATE-CHANGE; PUBLIC-GOODS; TIME; UNCERTAINTY; EVOLUTION; COOPERATION;
   GOVERNANCE; DECISIONS; DYNAMICS; BEHAVIOR
AB We will need collective action to avoid catastrophic climate change, and this will require valuing the long term as well as the short term. Shortsightedness and uncertainty have hindered progress in resolving this collective action problem and have been recognized as important barriers to cooperation among humans. Here, we propose a coupled social-ecological dilemma to investigate the interdependence of three well-identified components of this cooperation problem: 1) timescales of collapse and recovery in relation to time preferences regarding future outcomes, 2) the magnitude of the impact of collapse, and 3) the number of actors in the collective. We find that, under a sufficiently severe and time-distant collapse, how much the actors care for the future can transform the game from a tragedy of the commons into one of coordination, and even into a comedy of the commons in which cooperation dominates. Conversely, we also find conditions under which even strong concern for the future still does not transform the problem from tragedy to comedy. For a large number of participating actors, we find that the critical collapse impact, at which these game regime changes happen, converges to a fixed value of collapse impact per actor that is independent of the enhancement factor of the public good, which is usually regarded as the driver of the dilemma. Our results not only call for experimental testing but also help explain why polarization in beliefs about human-caused climate change can threaten global cooperation agreements.
C1 [Barfuss, Wolfra; Donges, Jonathan F.] Leibniz Assoc, Inst Climate Impact Res, Earth Syst Anal, D-14473 Potsdam, Germany.
   [Barfuss, Wolfra; Kurths, Juergen] Leibniz Assoc, Inst Climate Impact Res, Complex Sci, D-14473 Potsdam, Germany.
   [Barfuss, Wolfra] Max Planck Inst Math Sci, D-04103 Leipzig, Germany.
   [Barfuss, Wolfra] Humboldt Univ, Dept Phys, D-12489 Berlin, Germany.
   [Donges, Jonathan F.] Stockholm Univ, Stockholm Resilience Ctr, S-11419 Stockholm, Sweden.
   [Vasconcelos, Vitor V.; Levin, Simon A.] Princeton Univ, Dept Ecol & Evolutionary Biol, Princeton, NJ 08544 USA.
   [Vasconcelos, Vitor V.] Princeton Univ, Andlinger Ctr Energy & Environm, Princeton, NJ 08544 USA.
   [Vasconcelos, Vitor V.] Princeton Univ, Princeton Inst Int & Reg Studies, Princeton, NJ 08544 USA.
   [Kurths, Juergen] Saratov NG Chernyshevskii State Univ, Dept Biol, Saratov 410012, Russia.
C3 Potsdam Institut fur Klimafolgenforschung; Potsdam Institut fur
   Klimafolgenforschung; Max Planck Society; Humboldt University of Berlin;
   Stockholm University; Princeton University; Princeton University;
   Princeton University; Saratov State University
RP Barfuss, W (corresponding author), Leibniz Assoc, Inst Climate Impact Res, Earth Syst Anal, D-14473 Potsdam, Germany.; Barfuss, W (corresponding author), Leibniz Assoc, Inst Climate Impact Res, Complex Sci, D-14473 Potsdam, Germany.; Barfuss, W (corresponding author), Max Planck Inst Math Sci, D-04103 Leipzig, Germany.; Barfuss, W (corresponding author), Humboldt Univ, Dept Phys, D-12489 Berlin, Germany.; Levin, SA (corresponding author), Princeton Univ, Dept Ecol & Evolutionary Biol, Princeton, NJ 08544 USA.
EM barfuss@pik-potsdam.de; slevin@princeton.edu
RI Vasconcelos, Vítor V/JWO-3133-2024; Kurths, Juergen/I-4366-2013; Levin,
   Simon/J-1218-2014; Donges, Jonathan F./HCI-2311-2022
OI Vasconcelos, Vítor V/0000-0002-4621-5272; Levin,
   Simon/0000-0002-8216-5639; Barfuss, Wolfram/0000-0002-9077-5242; 
FU Heinrich Boll Foundation; Earth League's EarthDoc program; European
   Research Council Advanced Grant Project Earth Resilience in the
   Anthropocene; Leibniz Association Project DominoES (Domino effects in
   the Earth system); Princeton Institute for International and Regional
   Studies, Rapid Switch Community; US Defense Advanced Research Projects
   Agency [D17AC00005]; NSF [GEO-1211972]
FX This work was developed in the context of the project on Coevolutionary
   Pathways in the Earth System at the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact
   Research (PIK), within the Princeton-Humboldt Cooperation and Collective
   Cognition Network, and the PrincetonStockholm Resilience Centre-PIK
   Resilience Network. This work emerged from one chapter of the doctoral
   dissertation of W.B. W.B. acknowledges funding from the Heinrich Boll
   Foundation. J.F.D. acknowledges funding from Earth League's EarthDoc
   program, European Research Council Advanced Grant Project Earth
   Resilience in the Anthropocene, and Leibniz Association Project DominoES
   (Domino effects in the Earth system). V.V.V. acknowledges funding from
   the Princeton Institute for International and Regional Studies, Rapid
   Switch Community. S.A.L. and V.V.V. acknowledge funding by the US
   Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency (D17AC00005) and the NSF Grant
   GEO-1211972. We thank Jobst Heitzig for insightful discussions.
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NR 70
TC 68
Z9 78
U1 6
U2 67
PU NATL ACAD SCIENCES
PI WASHINGTON
PA 2101 CONSTITUTION AVE NW, WASHINGTON, DC 20418 USA
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EI 1091-6490
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JI Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U. S. A.
PD JUN 9
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VL 117
IS 23
BP 12915
EP 12922
DI 10.1073/pnas.1916545117
PG 8
WC Multidisciplinary Sciences
WE Science Citation Index Expanded (SCI-EXPANDED); Social Science Citation Index (SSCI)
SC Science & Technology - Other Topics
GA MG3QR
UT WOS:000545949100028
PM 32434908
OA Green Submitted
DA 2026-06-14
ER

PT J
AU Bury, TM
   Bauch, CT
   Anand, M
AF Bury, Thomas M.
   Bauch, Chris T.
   Anand, Madhur
TI Charting pathways to climate change mitigation in a coupled
   socio-climate model
SO PLOS COMPUTATIONAL BIOLOGY
LA English
DT Article
ID SYSTEM
AB Geophysical models of climate change are becoming increasingly sophisticated, yet less effort is devoted to modelling the human systems causing climate change and how the two systems are coupled. Here, we develop a simple socio-climate model by coupling an Earth system model to a social dynamics model. We treat social processes endogenously-emerging from rules governing how individuals learn socially and how social norms develop-as well as being influenced by climate change and mitigation costs. Our goal is to gain qualitative insights into scenarios of potential socio-climate dynamics and to illustrate how such models can generate new research questions. We find that the social learning rate is strongly influential, to the point that variation of its value within empirically plausible ranges changes the peak global temperature anomaly by more than 1 degrees C. Conversely, social norms reinforce majority behaviour and therefore may not provide help when we most need it because they suppress the early spread of mitigative behaviour. Finally, exploring the model's parameter space for mitigation cost and social learning suggests optimal intervention pathways for climate change mitigation. We find that prioritising an increase in social learning as a first step, followed by a reduction in mitigation costs provides the most efficient route to a reduced peak temperature anomaly. We conclude that socio-climate models should be included in the ensemble of models used to project climate change.
   Author summary The importance of anthropogenic CO2 emissions on climate change trajectories is widely acknowledged. However, geophysical climate models rarely account for dynamic human behaviour, which determines the emissions trajectory, and is itself affected by the climate system. Here, using a coupled socio-climate model, we show how social processes can strongly alter climate trajectories and we suggest optimal intervention pathways based on the model projections. Steps to increase social learning surrounding climate change should initially be prioritised for maximum impact, making a subsequent reduction in mitigation costs more effective. Policymakers will benefit from a better understanding of how social and climate processes interact, which can be provided by socio-climate models.
C1 [Bury, Thomas M.; Bauch, Chris T.] Univ Waterloo, Dept Appl Math, Waterloo, ON, Canada.
   [Bury, Thomas M.; Anand, Madhur] Univ Guelph, Sch Environm Sci, Guelph, ON, Canada.
C3 University of Waterloo; University of Guelph
RP Bury, TM (corresponding author), Univ Waterloo, Dept Appl Math, Waterloo, ON, Canada.; Bury, TM (corresponding author), Univ Guelph, Sch Environm Sci, Guelph, ON, Canada.
EM tbury@uwaterloo.ca
RI ; Bury, Thomas M/ABG-4131-2021
OI Bauch, Chris/0000-0001-6214-6601; Bury, Thomas M/0000-0003-1595-9444
FU Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada
   [RGPIN-04210-2014]
FX This research was funded by Natural Sciences and Engineering Research
   Council of Canada Discovery Grants to CTB (RGPIN-04210-2014) and MA
   (URL:
   http://www.nserc-crsng.gc.ca/Professors-Professeurs/Grants-Subs/DGIGP-PS
   IGP_eng.asp). The funders had no role in study design, data collection
   and analysis, decision to publish, or preparation of the manuscript.
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NR 45
TC 54
Z9 60
U1 0
U2 14
PU PUBLIC LIBRARY SCIENCE
PI SAN FRANCISCO
PA 1160 BATTERY STREET, STE 100, SAN FRANCISCO, CA 94111 USA
SN 1553-734X
EI 1553-7358
J9 PLOS COMPUT BIOL
JI PLoS Comput. Biol.
PD JUN
PY 2019
VL 15
IS 6
AR e1007000
DI 10.1371/journal.pcbi.1007000
PG 16
WC Biochemical Research Methods; Mathematical & Computational Biology
WE Science Citation Index Expanded (SCI-EXPANDED); Social Science Citation Index (SSCI)
SC Biochemistry & Molecular Biology; Mathematical & Computational Biology
GA IH7RZ
UT WOS:000474703000014
PM 31170149
OA Green Submitted, gold
DA 2026-06-14
ER

PT J
AU Beckage, B
   Gross, LJ
   Lacasse, K
   Carr, E
   Metcalf, SS
   Winter, JM
   Howe, PD
   Fefferman, N
   Franck, T
   Zia, A
   Kinzig, A
   Hoffman, FM
AF Beckage, Brian
   Gross, Louis J.
   Lacasse, Katherine
   Carr, Eric
   Metcalf, Sara S.
   Winter, Jonathan M.
   Howe, Peter D.
   Fefferman, Nina
   Franck, Travis
   Zia, Asim
   Kinzig, Ann
   Hoffman, Forrest M.
TI Linking models of human behaviour and climate alters projected climate
   change
SO NATURE CLIMATE CHANGE
LA English
DT Article
ID PLANNED BEHAVIOR; FLOOD; RISK; ATTRIBUTION; PERCEPTIONS
AB Although not considered in climate models, perceived risk stemming from extreme climate events may induce behavioural changes that alter greenhouse gas emissions. Here, we link the C-ROADS climate model to a social model of behavioural change to examine how interactions between perceived risk and emissions behaviour influence projected climate change. Our coupled climate and social model resulted in a global temperature change ranging from 3.4-6.2 degrees C by 2100 compared with 4.9 degrees C for the C-ROADS model alone, and led to behavioural uncertainty that was of a similar magnitude to physical uncertainty (2.8 degrees C versus 3.5 degrees C). Model components with the largest influence on temperature were the functional form of response to extreme events, interaction of perceived behavioural control with perceived social norms, and behaviours leading to sustained emissions reductions. Our results suggest that policies emphasizing the appropriate attribution of extreme events to climate change and infrastructural mitigation may reduce climate change the most.
C1 [Beckage, Brian] Univ Vermont, Dept Plant Biol, Burlington, VT 05405 USA.
   [Beckage, Brian] Univ Vermont, Dept Comp Sci, Burlington, VT 05405 USA.
   [Gross, Louis J.; Fefferman, Nina] Univ Tennessee, Dept Ecol & Evolutionary Biol, Knoxville, TN USA.
   [Gross, Louis J.; Fefferman, Nina] Univ Tennessee, Dept Math, Knoxville, TN 37996 USA.
   [Gross, Louis J.; Carr, Eric; Fefferman, Nina] Univ Tennessee, Natl Inst Math & Biol Synth, Knoxville, TN USA.
   [Lacasse, Katherine] Rhode Isl Coll, Dept Psychol, Providence, RI 02908 USA.
   [Metcalf, Sara S.] SUNY Buffalo, Dept Geog, Buffalo, NY USA.
   [Winter, Jonathan M.] Dartmouth Coll, Dept Geog, Hanover, NH 03755 USA.
   [Howe, Peter D.] Utah State Univ, Dept Environm & Soc, Logan, UT 84322 USA.
   [Franck, Travis] Climate Interact, Belmont, MA USA.
   [Zia, Asim] Univ Vermont, Community Dev & Appl Econ, Burlington, VT USA.
   [Kinzig, Ann] Arizona State Univ, Sch Life Sci, Tempe, AZ USA.
   [Hoffman, Forrest M.] Oak Ridge Natl Lab, Oak Ridge, TN USA.
C3 University of Vermont; University of Vermont; University of Tennessee
   System; University of Tennessee Knoxville; University of Tennessee
   System; University of Tennessee Knoxville; University of Tennessee
   System; University of Tennessee Knoxville; Rhode Island College; State
   University of New York (SUNY) System; University at Buffalo, SUNY;
   Dartmouth College; Utah System of Higher Education; Utah State
   University; University of Vermont; Arizona State University; Arizona
   State University-Tempe; United States Department of Energy (DOE); Oak
   Ridge National Laboratory
RP Beckage, B (corresponding author), Univ Vermont, Dept Plant Biol, Burlington, VT 05405 USA.; Beckage, B (corresponding author), Univ Vermont, Dept Comp Sci, Burlington, VT 05405 USA.
EM Brian.Beckage@uvm.edu
RI Fefferman, Nina H/AAQ-7378-2021; Hoffman, Forrest/B-8667-2012; Metcalf,
   Sara/I-8593-2019
OI Fefferman, Nina H/0000-0003-0233-1404; Gross, Louis/0000-0002-1149-8006;
   Beckage, Brian/0000-0002-5908-6924; Hoffman,
   Forrest/0000-0001-5802-4134; Franck, Travis Read/0009-0006-0814-2670;
   zia, asim/0000-0001-8372-6090; Lacasse, Katherine/0000-0002-3413-9815;
   Metcalf, Sara/0000-0003-1263-1902
FU National Institute for Mathematical Biological Synthesis-a synthesis
   centre - National Science Foundation [DBI-1300426]; University of
   Tennessee, Knoxville; National Socio-Environmental Synthesis Center
   under National Science Foundation [DBI-1052875]; National Science
   Foundation through Vermont Established Program to Stimulate Competitive
   Research grant [EPS-1101317, OIA-1556770]; Direct For Biological
   Sciences; Div Of Biological Infrastructure [1300426] Funding Source:
   National Science Foundation; Direct For Biological Sciences; Div Of
   Biological Infrastructure [1052875] Funding Source: National Science
   Foundation; Office Of The Director; Office of Integrative Activities
   [1556770] Funding Source: National Science Foundation
FX This work resulted from a working group jointly supported by both the
   National Institute for Mathematical Biological Synthesis-a synthesis
   centre sponsored by the National Science Foundation through award
   DBI-1300426 with additional support from The University of Tennessee,
   Knoxville-and the National Socio-Environmental Synthesis Center under
   funding received from National Science Foundation award DBI-1052875.
   B.B., J.M.W. and A.Z. additionally acknowledge support from the National
   Science Foundation through Vermont Established Program to Stimulate
   Competitive Research grant numbers EPS-1101317 and OIA-1556770.
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NR 38
TC 139
Z9 154
U1 3
U2 93
PU NATURE PORTFOLIO
PI BERLIN
PA HEIDELBERGER PLATZ 3, BERLIN, 14197, GERMANY
SN 1758-678X
EI 1758-6798
J9 NAT CLIM CHANGE
JI Nat. Clim. Chang.
PD JAN
PY 2018
VL 8
IS 1
BP 79
EP +
DI 10.1038/s41558-017-0031-7
PG 7
WC Environmental Sciences; Environmental Studies; Meteorology & Atmospheric
   Sciences
WE Science Citation Index Expanded (SCI-EXPANDED); Social Science Citation Index (SSCI)
SC Environmental Sciences & Ecology; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
GA FU4RJ
UT WOS:000423840000025
OA Green Submitted
DA 2026-06-14
ER

PT J
AU Heck, V
   Donges, JF
   Lucht, W
AF Heck, Vera
   Donges, Jonathan F.
   Lucht, Wolfgang
TI Collateral transgression of planetary boundaries due to climate
   engineering by terrestrial carbon dioxide removal
SO EARTH SYSTEM DYNAMICS
LA English
DT Article
ID TIPPING ELEMENTS; DYNAMICS; STABILIZATION; FEEDBACKS; INCREASE; PATHWAY
AB The planetary boundaries framework provides guidelines for defining thresholds in environmental variables. Their transgression is likely to result in a shift in Earth system functioning away from the relatively stable Holocene state. As the climate system is approaching critical thresholds of atmospheric carbon, several climate engineering methods are discussed, aiming at a reduction of atmospheric carbon concentrations to control the Earth's energy balance. Terrestrial carbon dioxide removal (tCDR) via afforestation or bioenergy production with carbon capture and storage are part of most climate change mitigation scenarios that limit global warming to less than 2 degrees C.
   We analyse the co-evolutionary interaction of societal interventions via tCDR and the natural dynamics of the Earth's carbon cycle. Applying a conceptual modelling framework, we analyse how the degree of anticipation of the climate problem and the intensity of tCDR efforts with the aim of staying within a "safe" level of global warming might influence the state of the Earth system with respect to other carbon-related planetary boundaries.
   Within the scope of our approach, we show that societal management of atmospheric carbon via tCDR can lead to a collateral transgression of the planetary boundary of land system change. Our analysis indicates that the opportunities to remain in a desirable region within carbon-related planetary boundaries only exist for a small range of anticipation levels and depend critically on the underlying emission pathway. While tCDR has the potential to ensure the Earth system's persistence within a carbon-safe operating space under low-emission pathways, it is unlikely to succeed in a business-as-usual scenario.
C1 [Heck, Vera; Donges, Jonathan F.; Lucht, Wolfgang] Potsdam Inst Climate Impact Res, Earth Syst Anal, Telegraphenberg A62, D-14473 Potsdam, Germany.
   [Donges, Jonathan F.] Stockholm Univ, Stockholm Resilience Ctr, Kraftriket 2B, S-11419 Stockholm, Sweden.
   [Heck, Vera; Lucht, Wolfgang] Humboldt Univ, Dept Geog, Unter Linden 6, D-10099 Berlin, Germany.
   [Lucht, Wolfgang] Humboldt Univ, Integrat Res Inst Transformat Human Environm Syst, Unter Linden 6, D-10099 Berlin, Germany.
C3 Potsdam Institut fur Klimafolgenforschung; Stockholm University;
   Humboldt University of Berlin; Humboldt University of Berlin
RP Heck, V (corresponding author), Potsdam Inst Climate Impact Res, Earth Syst Anal, Telegraphenberg A62, D-14473 Potsdam, Germany.; Heck, V (corresponding author), Humboldt Univ, Dept Geog, Unter Linden 6, D-10099 Berlin, Germany.
EM heck@pik-potsdam.de
RI Donges, Jonathan/HCI-2311-2022; Lucht, Wolfgang/G-2180-2011
OI Donges, Jonathan/0000-0001-5233-7703; Lucht,
   Wolfgang/0000-0002-3398-8575
FU Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft [SPP 1689]; Stordalen Foundation via the
   Planetary Boundaries Research Network (PB.net); Earth League's Earth-Doc
   Programme; European Regional Development Fund; German Federal Ministry
   of Education and Research; Land Brandenburg
FX This research was performed in the context of Potsdam Institute for
   Climate Impact Research's flagship projects COPAN on Coevolutionary
   Pathways and OPEN on Planetary Opportunities and Planetary Boundaries.
   Vera Heck and Wolfgang Lucht were funded by the Deutsche
   Forschungsgemeinschaft in the context of the CE-Land project of the
   Priority Programme "Climate Engineering: Risks, Challenges,
   Opportunities?" (SPP 1689). Jonathan F. Donges thanks the Stordalen
   Foundation via the Planetary Boundaries Research Network (PB.net) and
   the Earth League's Earth-Doc Programme for financial support. The
   authors gratefully acknowledge the European Regional Development Fund,
   the German Federal Ministry of Education and Research and the Land
   Brandenburg for supporting this project by providing resources on the
   high-performance computer system at the Potsdam Institute for Climate
   Impact Research. The authors are grateful to Jobst Heitzig, Dieter
   Gerten, Tim Kittel, Wolfram Barfuss and the two referees for helpful
   comments and discussions.
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NR 58
TC 25
Z9 26
U1 0
U2 31
PU COPERNICUS GESELLSCHAFT MBH
PI GOTTINGEN
PA BAHNHOFSALLEE 1E, GOTTINGEN, 37081, GERMANY
SN 2190-4979
EI 2190-4987
J9 EARTH SYST DYNAM
JI Earth Syst. Dynam.
PD OCT 31
PY 2016
VL 7
IS 4
BP 783
EP 796
DI 10.5194/esd-7-783-2016
PG 14
WC Geosciences, Multidisciplinary
WE Science Citation Index Expanded (SCI-EXPANDED)
SC Geology
GA EB5YV
UT WOS:000387457900001
OA Green Submitted, gold
DA 2026-06-14
ER

PT J
AU Du, JM
   Wu, B
   Wang, L
AF Du, Jinming
   Wu, Bin
   Wang, Long
TI Climate collective risk dilemma with feedback of real-time temperatures
SO EPL
LA English
DT Article
ID SOCIAL DILEMMA; EVOLUTION; PUNISHMENT; TRAGEDY; GAME; COMMUNICATION
AB Controlling global warming through collective cooperation is a non-optional threshold public goods game. Previous models assume that the disaster is a sudden event and it happens with a given probability. It is shown that high risk can pave the way for reaching the cooperative target. These models, however, neglect the temperature dynamics, which is influenced by the collective behaviours. Here, we establish a temperature dynamics, and introduce the feedback between human strategy updating and the temperature change: high temperature will discount individuals' payoffs; while sufficient public goods may decrease the ever-rising temperature. We investigate how the temperature is affected by human behaviour and vice versa. It is found that, on the one hand, the temperature can be stabilized to a relatively safe level in the long run. On the other hand, the cooperation can be promoted and be maintained at a higher level, compared with public goods game models with no such feedback. editor's choice Copyright (C) EPLA, 2014
C1 [Du, Jinming; Wang, Long] Peking Univ, Coll Engn, Ctr Syst & Control, Beijing 100871, Peoples R China.
   [Wu, Bin] Max Planck Inst Evolut Biol, Dept Evolutionary Theory, D-24306 Plon, Germany.
C3 Peking University; Max Planck Society
RP Du, JM (corresponding author), Peking Univ, Coll Engn, Ctr Syst & Control, Beijing 100871, Peoples R China.
RI Du, Jinming/F-8006-2010; Wang, Long/A-7798-2010
OI Du, Jinming/0000-0002-8146-9286; Wang, Long/0000-0001-5600-8157
FU National Natural Science Foundation of China (NSFC) [61020106005,
   61375120]; Max-Planck Society
FX We thank the anonymous referees for their constructive and insightful
   comments. This work was supported by the National Natural Science
   Foundation of China (NSFC) Grants No. 61020106005 and No. 61375120. BW
   gratefully acknowledges sponsorship from the Max-Planck Society.
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NR 41
TC 22
Z9 22
U1 0
U2 34
PU IOP PUBLISHING LTD
PI BRISTOL
PA TEMPLE CIRCUS, TEMPLE WAY, BRISTOL BS1 6BE, ENGLAND
SN 0295-5075
EI 1286-4854
J9 EPL-EUROPHYS LETT
JI EPL
PD SEP
PY 2014
VL 107
IS 6
AR 60005
DI 10.1209/0295-5075/107/60005
PG 6
WC Physics, Multidisciplinary
WE Science Citation Index Expanded (SCI-EXPANDED)
SC Physics
GA AQ8YD
UT WOS:000343125400005
DA 2026-06-14
ER

PT J
AU Jarvis, AJ
   Leedal, DT
   Hewitt, CN
AF Jarvis, A. J.
   Leedal, D. T.
   Hewitt, C. N.
TI Climate-society feedbacks and the avoidance of dangerous climate change
SO NATURE CLIMATE CHANGE
LA English
DT Article
ID PERCEPTIONS; EMISSIONS; POLICY; CARBON
AB The growth in anthropogenic CO2 emissions experienced since the onset of the Industrial Revolution is the most important disturbance operating on the Earth's climate system(1). To avoid dangerous climate change, future greenhouse-gas emissions will have to deviate from business-as-usual trajectories(2). This implies that feedback links need to exist between climate change and societal actions. Here, we show that, consciously or otherwise, these feedbacks can be represented by linking global mean temperature change to the growth dynamics of CO2 emissions. We show that the global growth of new renewable sources of energy post-1990 represents a climate-society feedback of similar to 0.25% yr(-1) per degree increase in global mean temperature. We also show that to fulfil the outcomes negotiated in Durban in 2011, society will have to become similar to 50 times more responsive to global mean temperature change than it has been since 1990. If global energy use continues to grow as it has done historically then this would result in amplification of the long-term endogenous rate of decarbonization from -0.6%yr(-1) to similar to-13%yr(-1). It is apparent that modest levels of feedback sensitivity pay large dividends in avoiding climate change but that the marginal return on this effort diminishes rapidly as the required feedback strength increases.
C1 [Jarvis, A. J.; Leedal, D. T.; Hewitt, C. N.] Univ Lancaster, Lancaster Environm Ctr, Lancaster LA1 4YQ, England.
C3 Lancaster University
RP Jarvis, AJ (corresponding author), Univ Lancaster, Lancaster Environm Ctr, Lancaster LA1 4YQ, England.
EM a.jarvis@lancs.ac.uk
RI ; Hewitt, Charles Nicholas/ABF-9429-2020
OI Leedal, David/0000-0003-0069-3495; Jarvis, Anew
   James/0000-0002-0700-0295; Hewitt, Charles Nicholas/0000-0001-7973-2666
FU EPSRC [EP/I014721/1]; Lancaster University; Engineering and Physical
   Sciences Research Council [EP/I014721/1] Funding Source: researchfish;
   EPSRC [EP/I014721/1] Funding Source: UKRI
FX We thank P. Young and M. Raupach for their comments on early drafts of
   the manuscript. A. Grubler kindly supplied the global primary energy-use
   data. A.J.J. and D.T.L. were supported under EPSRC research grant
   EP/I014721/1. C.N.H. was supported by Lancaster University.
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NR 27
TC 39
Z9 50
U1 0
U2 61
PU NATURE PUBLISHING GROUP
PI LONDON
PA MACMILLAN BUILDING, 4 CRINAN ST, LONDON N1 9XW, ENGLAND
SN 1758-678X
EI 1758-6798
J9 NAT CLIM CHANGE
JI Nat. Clim. Chang.
PD SEP
PY 2012
VL 2
IS 9
BP 668
EP 671
DI 10.1038/NCLIMATE1586
PG 4
WC Environmental Sciences; Environmental Studies; Meteorology & Atmospheric
   Sciences
WE Science Citation Index Expanded (SCI-EXPANDED); Social Science Citation Index (SSCI)
SC Environmental Sciences & Ecology; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
GA 009ME
UT WOS:000309029100012
DA 2026-06-14
ER

PT J
AU Janssen, M
   de Vries, B
AF Janssen, M
   de Vries, B
TI The battle of perspectives: a multi-agent model with adaptive responses
   to climate change
SO ECOLOGICAL ECONOMICS
LA English
DT Article
DE global change; integrated assessment modelling; perspectives;
   multi-agent modelling
AB To evaluate possible futures with regard to economy, energy and climate, a multi-agent modelling approach is used. Agents hold different perspectives on how the world functions (worldview) and how it should be managed (management style) and this is implemented in a simple dynamic model of the economy-energy-climate system. Each perspective is supported by a proportion of the agents, but this proportion changes in response to observations about the real world. In this way the totality of agents learn from their observations. It is concluded that this approach is a good illustration of how adaptive behavior can be included in global change modelling. Some exploratory experiments are done to address the consequences of surprises. (C) 1998 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.
C1 Natl Inst Publ Hlth & Environm, RIVM, Bur Environm Assessment, MNV, NL-3720 Bilthoven, Netherlands.
C3 Netherlands National Institute for Public Health & the Environment
RP Janssen, M (corresponding author), Natl Inst Publ Hlth & Environm, RIVM, Bur Environm Assessment, MNV, POB 1, NL-3720 Bilthoven, Netherlands.
EM Marco.Janssen@rivm.nl
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NR 47
TC 81
Z9 91
U1 0
U2 24
PU ELSEVIER
PI AMSTERDAM
PA RADARWEG 29, 1043 NX AMSTERDAM, NETHERLANDS
SN 0921-8009
EI 1873-6106
J9 ECOL ECON
JI Ecol. Econ.
PD JUL
PY 1998
VL 26
IS 1
BP 43
EP 65
DI 10.1016/S0921-8009(97)00062-1
PG 23
WC Ecology; Economics; Environmental Sciences; Environmental Studies
WE Science Citation Index Expanded (SCI-EXPANDED); Social Science Citation Index (SSCI)
SC Environmental Sciences & Ecology; Business & Economics
GA 111DF
UT WOS:000075421500005
OA Green Submitted
DA 2026-06-14
ER

EF