FN Clarivate Analytics Web of Science
VR 1.0
PT C
AU Caseau, Y
AF Caseau, Yves
TI CCEM: A System Dynamics Earth Model for Capturing Beliefs Related to the
   Coupling of Energy, Economy and Global Warming
SO IFAC PAPERSONLINE
LA English
DT Proceedings Paper
CT 3rd IFAC Workshop on Integrated Assessment Modeling for Environmental
   Systems (IAMES)
CY MAY 29-31, 2024
CL Savona, ITALY
DE IAM; system dynamics; ecological redirection; energy transition; known
   unknowns; global warming impacts; Anthropocene
AB This paper presents CCEM (Coupling Coarse Earth Models), a system dynamics simulation model that represents the earth as a complex system, with a focus on the feedback loops associated with global warming. CCEM combines five simpler models, addressing energy availability, economic adjustment to energy scarcity, energy transition, global economy and CO2 emissions, and the impact of CO2 emissions on warming and society. The model aims to make implicit beliefs explicit and demonstrate that the same mental model can support various viewpoints by changing beliefs associated with "known unknowns". CCEM, compared with other Integrated Assessment Models (IAM), enriches the feedback loop from global warming to the energy/economy system by representing the impacts of global warming and the associated retroactions. The model introduces a "pain factor" as a non-linear trigger for redirection, accounting for pain from warming, economic results, and energy shortages. CCEM emphasizes that the complex system of energy, economy, climate, and society will evolve chaotically through redirections, making forecasting and planning difficult, but provides a foundation for game theoretical analysis of mitigation and adaptation strategies. Copyright (C) 2024 The Authors. This is an open access article under the CC BY-NC-ND license (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/)
C1 [Caseau, Yves] Natl Acad Technol France, Paris, France.
RP Caseau, Y (corresponding author), Natl Acad Technol France, Paris, France.
EM yves.caseau@academie-technologies.fr
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NR 17
TC 1
Z9 1
U1 1
U2 1
PU ELSEVIER
PI AMSTERDAM
PA RADARWEG 29, 1043 NX AMSTERDAM, NETHERLANDS
SN 2405-8963
J9 IFAC PAPERSONLINE
JI IFAC PAPERSONLINE
PY 2024
VL 58
IS 2
BP 92
EP 98
DI 10.1016/j.ifacol.2024.07.097
EA AUG 2024
PG 7
WC Automation & Control Systems
WE Conference Proceedings Citation Index - Science (CPCI-S)
SC Automation & Control Systems
GA D4O0H
UT WOS:001295980100016
OA gold
DA 2026-06-14
ER

PT J
AU Sverdrup, HU
   Olafsdottir, AH
AF Sverdrup, Harald Ulrik
   Olafsdottir, Anna Hulda
TI Dynamical Modelling of the Global Cement Production and Supply System,
   Assessing Climate Impacts of Different Future Scenarios
SO WATER AIR AND SOIL POLLUTION
LA English
DT Article
DE Systems dynamics; Cement; Concrete; WORLD7; Sustainability; Climate
   change
ID CO2 EMISSIONS; MARKET PRICE; SUSTAINABILITY; INDUSTRY; STOCKS;
   PROJECTION; DEMAND; INPUT
AB The global cement and concrete demand, production, supply, and the general global market price was modelled using the WORLD7 model for different future scenarios. The model was used to analyze some possible measures to reduce the climate impact of cement production. The main result from this study is that three factors may bring regulatory limitations to be imposed on cement production. The contribution of CO2 to the atmosphere, the amount of iron used in construction and the use of energy in production are the main factors that may cause limitations. Cement accounts for about 8% of the global CO2 emissions and energy use at present, and this fraction is projected by the simulations to continue to increase. To reduce CO2 emissions from cement production, ending fossil fuel use for calcination, combined with a change towards using mortar as an alternative for making concrete should be considered. Our conclusion is that the long-term limitation for cement production is the availability of carbon-free energy, and the availability of iron for reinforcement bars. Eliminating the use of hydrocarbons for cement calcination may reduce the future the contribution from cement by 38%. Eliminating the use of hydrocarbons for calcination combined with substituting cement with mortar to 50%, the contribution to the future global average temperature increase is reduced by 62%. Eliminating the use of hydrocarbons for calcination combined with substituting cement with mortar to 90% is a reduction by 90% in the contribution from cement.
C1 [Sverdrup, Harald Ulrik] Norway Inland Univ Appl Sci, Syst Dynam Res Grp, Game Dev & Interact Simulat, Holsetgaten 31, N-2315 Hamar, Norway.
   [Olafsdottir, Anna Hulda] Iceland Meteorol Off, Climate Serv, Adaptat Ctr, Bustadavegur 7-9, IS-105 Reykjavik, Iceland.
RP Sverdrup, HU (corresponding author), Norway Inland Univ Appl Sci, Syst Dynam Res Grp, Game Dev & Interact Simulat, Holsetgaten 31, N-2315 Hamar, Norway.
EM harald.sverdrup@inn.no
RI /R-1238-2018
OI Sverup, Harald Ulrik/0000-0001-6935-8367
FU Inland Norway University Of Applied Sciences
FX Open access funding provided by Inland Norway University Of Applied
   Sciences
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NR 80
TC 31
Z9 37
U1 4
U2 32
PU SPRINGER INT PUBL AG
PI CHAM
PA GEWERBESTRASSE 11, CHAM, CH-6330, SWITZERLAND
SN 0049-6979
EI 1573-2932
J9 WATER AIR SOIL POLL
JI Water Air Soil Pollut.
PD MAR
PY 2023
VL 234
IS 3
AR 191
DI 10.1007/s11270-023-06183-1
PG 27
WC Environmental Sciences; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences; Water
   Resources
WE Science Citation Index Expanded (SCI-EXPANDED)
SC Environmental Sciences & Ecology; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences;
   Water Resources
GA 9V8UL
UT WOS:000948661500003
OA Green Submitted, hybrid
DA 2026-06-14
ER

PT J
AU Bystroff, C
AF Bystroff, Christopher
TI Footprints to singularity: A global population model explains late 20th
   century slow-down and predicts peak within ten years
SO PLOS ONE
LA English
DT Article
ID TECHNOLOGICAL-CHANGE; CLIMATE-CHANGE; GROWTH
AB Projections of future global human population are traditionally made using birth/death trend extrapolations, but these methods ignore limits. Expressing humanity as a K-selected species whose numbers are limited by the global carrying capacity produces a different outlook. Population data for the second millennium up to the year 1970 was fit to a hyper-exponential growth equation, where the rate constant for growth itself grows exponentially due to growth of life-saving technology. The discrepancies between the projected growth and the actual population data since 1970 are accounted for by a decrease in the global carrying capacity due to ecosystem degradation. A system dynamics model that best fits recent population numbers suggests that the global biocapacity may already have been reduced to one-half of its historical value and global carrying capacity may be at its 1965 level and falling. Simulations suggest that population may soon peak or may have already peaked. Population projections depend strongly on the unknown fragility or robustness of the Earth's essential ecosystem services that affect agricultural production. Numbers for the 2020 global census were not available for this study.
C1 [Bystroff, Christopher] Rensselaer Polytech Inst, Dept Comp Sci, Dept Biol Sci, Troy, NY 12180 USA.
C3 Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute
RP Bystroff, C (corresponding author), Rensselaer Polytech Inst, Dept Comp Sci, Dept Biol Sci, Troy, NY 12180 USA.
EM bystrc@rpi.edu
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NR 46
TC 13
Z9 15
U1 0
U2 14
PU PUBLIC LIBRARY SCIENCE
PI SAN FRANCISCO
PA 1160 BATTERY STREET, STE 100, SAN FRANCISCO, CA 94111 USA
SN 1932-6203
J9 PLOS ONE
JI PLoS One
PD MAY 20
PY 2021
VL 16
IS 5
AR e0247214
DI 10.1371/journal.pone.0247214
PG 20
WC Multidisciplinary Sciences
WE Science Citation Index Expanded (SCI-EXPANDED); Social Science Citation Index (SSCI)
SC Science & Technology - Other Topics
GA SW6NW
UT WOS:000664631600007
PM 34014929
OA Green Submitted, gold
DA 2026-06-14
ER

PT J
AU Sverdrup, HU
   Olafsdottir, AH
AF Sverdrup, Harald Ulrik
   Olafsdottir, Anna Hulda
TI Conceptualization and parameterization of the market price mechanism in
   the WORLD6 model for metals, materials, and fossil fuels
SO MINERAL ECONOMICS
LA English
DT Article
DE WORLD6; System dynamics; Metal price; Mining; Recycling; Dynamic
   modeling
ID ORE GRADE; STOCKS; SUSTAINABILITY; DEMAND; FLOWS; RATES
AB A model for market price modeling in an integrated global model for resource supply has been developed and successfully applied in the WORLD6 model. A dynamic market and price model has been developed, based on immediately tradable amounts, affected by supply and demand. Real-world drivers and a systems approach with feedbacks in the price setting and market mechanisms were used in this study, without the model becoming too complex. Observed cause and effects and feedbacks were included, in order to have explanatory power or be truer to economic reality in terms of both structure and parameter settings. The model is adaptive from a fully free dynamic market to a biased or oligarchic market, depending on the condition. The market price model was parameterized for copper, zinc, lead, nickel, iron, aluminum, wolfram, niobium, molybdenum, lithium, vanadium, gold, silver, platinum, palladium, and tin, and for fossil fuels like oil and hard coal. The equation has the shape: price = k x market amount (n), where market amount is the instantly tradable amount of metal in the market arena, k is a metal-specific coefficient, and n is an exponent. The derived equations were applied in the WORLD6 model, making simulations of market price set every day endogenously in the model possible. The price mechanism proposed here perform well in tests against observed data when included in the WORLD6 model. The obtained results were compared to a price curve for coffee and a similar pattern was found.
C1 [Sverdrup, Harald Ulrik; Olafsdottir, Anna Hulda] Univ Iceland, Ind Engn, VR 2,Hjaroarhagi 6, IS-107 Reykjavik, Iceland.
   [Sverdrup, Harald Ulrik] Norse Met AS, Industriveien 23, Elverum, Norway.
C3 University of Iceland
RP Sverdrup, HU (corresponding author), Univ Iceland, Ind Engn, VR 2,Hjaroarhagi 6, IS-107 Reykjavik, Iceland.; Sverdrup, HU (corresponding author), Norse Met AS, Industriveien 23, Elverum, Norway.
EM hus@hi.is
RI Olafsdottir, Anna/R-1238-2018
OI Olafsdottir, Anna/0000-0002-5138-2366; Sverup, Harald
   Ulrik/0000-0001-6935-8367
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NR 93
TC 9
Z9 15
U1 1
U2 18
PU SPRINGER HEIDELBERG
PI HEIDELBERG
PA TIERGARTENSTRASSE 17, D-69121 HEIDELBERG, GERMANY
SN 2191-2203
EI 2191-2211
J9 MINER ECON
JI Miner. Econ.
PD OCT
PY 2020
VL 33
IS 3
BP 285
EP 310
DI 10.1007/s13563-019-00182-7
PG 26
WC Economics
WE Emerging Sources Citation Index (ESCI)
SC Business & Economics
GA OM6IO
UT WOS:000586126100002
DA 2026-06-14
ER

PT J
AU Ansell, T
   Cayzer, S
AF Ansell, Thomas
   Cayzer, Steve
TI Limits to growth redux: A system dynamics model for assessing energy and
   climate change constraints to global growth
SO ENERGY POLICY
LA English
DT Article
DE Limits; Growth; Climate change; Energy; Population; System dynamics
ID TRENDS; IMPACTS; CAPTURE; CROPS; EROI
AB This study investigates the notion of limits to socioeconomic growth with a specific focus on the role of climate change and the declining quality of fossil fuel reserves. A new system dynamics model has been created. The World Energy Model (WEM) is based on the World3 model (The Limits to Growth, Meadows et al., 2004) with climate change and energy production replacing generic pollution and resources factors. WEM also tracks global population, food production and industrial output out to the year 2100. This paper presents a series of WEM's projections; each of which represent broad sweeps of what the future may bring. All scenarios project that global industrial output will continue growing until 2100. Scenarios based on current energy trends lead to a 50% increase in the average cost of energy production and 2.4-2.7 degrees C of global warming by 2100. WEM projects that limiting global warming to 2 degrees C will reduce the industrial output growth rate by 0.1-0.2%. However, WEM also plots industrial decline by 2150 for cases of uncontrolled climate change or increased population growth. The general behaviour of WEM is far more stable than World3 but its results still support the call for a managed decline in society's ecological footprint.
C1 [Ansell, Thomas; Cayzer, Steve] Univ Bath, Bath BA2 7AY, Avon, England.
C3 University of Bath
RP Ansell, T (corresponding author), Pinhead House,Old Barnstaple Rd, Bideford EX39 4NF, Devon, England.
EM tomansell1@hotmail.com
RI Cayzer, Steve/GLU-8192-2022
OI Cayzer, Steve/0000-0002-9854-289X
FU University of Bath
FX This work was supported by the University of Bath
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NR 57
TC 46
Z9 48
U1 1
U2 55
PU ELSEVIER SCI LTD
PI London
PA 125 London Wall, London, ENGLAND
SN 0301-4215
EI 1873-6777
J9 ENERG POLICY
JI Energy Policy
PD SEP
PY 2018
VL 120
BP 514
EP 525
DI 10.1016/j.enpol.2018.05.053
PG 12
WC Economics; Energy & Fuels; Environmental Sciences; Environmental Studies
WE Science Citation Index Expanded (SCI-EXPANDED); Social Science Citation Index (SSCI)
SC Business & Economics; Energy & Fuels; Environmental Sciences & Ecology
GA GO6DC
UT WOS:000440123300048
OA Green Submitted
DA 2026-06-14
ER

PT J
AU Nitzbon, J
   Heitzig, J
   Parlitz, U
AF Nitzbon, Jan
   Heitzig, Jobst
   Parlitz, Ulrich
TI Sustainability, collapse and oscillations in a simple World-Earth model
SO ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS
LA English
DT Article
DE World-Earth modeling; anthropocene; global carbon cycle; energy
   transformation; coevolutionary dynamics; bifurcation analysis
ID SAFE OPERATING SPACE; PLANETARY BOUNDARIES; DYNAMICS; SYSTEM; RESOURCES;
   GEOLOGY
AB The Anthropocene is characterized by close interdependencies between the natural Earth system and the global human society, posing novel challenges to model development. Here we present a conceptual model describing the long-term co-evolution of natural and socio-economic subsystems of Earth. While the climate is represented via a global carbon cycle, we use economic concepts to model socio-metabolic flows of biomass and fossil fuels between nature and society. A well-being-dependent parametrization of fertility and mortality governs human population dynamics.
   Our analysis focuses on assessing possible asymptotic states of the Earth system for a qualitative understanding of its complex dynamics rather than quantitative predictions. Low dimension and simple equations enable a parameter-space analysis allowing us to identify preconditions of several asymptotic states and hence fates of humanity and planet. These include a sustainable co-evolution of nature and society, a global collapse and everlasting oscillations.
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C1 [Nitzbon, Jan; Parlitz, Ulrich] Univ Gottingen, Fac Phys, Inst Nonlinear Dynam, Friedrich Hund Pl 1, D-37077 Gottingen, Germany.
   [Nitzbon, Jan; Heitzig, Jobst] Potsdam Inst Climate Impact Res, POB 601203, D-14412 Potsdam, Germany.
   [Nitzbon, Jan] Alfred Wegener Inst Polar & Marine Res, POB 600149, D-14401 Potsdam, Germany.
   [Parlitz, Ulrich] Max Planck Inst Dynam & Self Org, Fassberg 17, D-37077 Gottingen, Germany.
C3 University of Gottingen; Potsdam Institut fur Klimafolgenforschung;
   Helmholtz Association; Alfred Wegener Institute, Helmholtz Centre for
   Polar & Marine Research; Max Planck Society
RP Nitzbon, J (corresponding author), Univ Gottingen, Fac Phys, Inst Nonlinear Dynam, Friedrich Hund Pl 1, D-37077 Gottingen, Germany.; Nitzbon, J (corresponding author), Potsdam Inst Climate Impact Res, POB 601203, D-14412 Potsdam, Germany.; Nitzbon, J (corresponding author), Alfred Wegener Inst Polar & Marine Res, POB 600149, D-14401 Potsdam, Germany.
EM jan.nitzbon@awi.de
RI Nitzbon, Jan/AAG-8085-2020; Heitzig, Jobst/E-8271-2011; Parlitz,
   Ulrich/NJS-2762-2025
OI Nitzbon, Jan/0000-0001-7205-6298; 
FU German Research Foundation; Gottingen University
FX We acknowledge support by the German Research Foundation and the Open
   Access Publication Funds of the Gottingen University.
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NR 48
TC 23
Z9 25
U1 3
U2 25
PU IOP Publishing Ltd
PI BRISTOL
PA TEMPLE CIRCUS, TEMPLE WAY, BRISTOL BS1 6BE, ENGLAND
SN 1748-9326
J9 ENVIRON RES LETT
JI Environ. Res. Lett.
PD JUL
PY 2017
VL 12
IS 7
AR 074020
DI 10.1088/1748-9326/aa7581
PG 15
WC Environmental Sciences; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
WE Science Citation Index Expanded (SCI-EXPANDED); Social Science Citation Index (SSCI)
SC Environmental Sciences & Ecology; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
GA FK9CE
UT WOS:000413807800001
OA Green Submitted, gold
DA 2026-06-14
ER

PT J
AU Sverdrup, HU
   Ragnarsdottir, KV
AF Sverdrup, Harald U.
   Ragnarsdottir, Kristin Vala
TI A system dynamics model for platinum group metal supply, market price,
   depletion of extractable amounts, ore grade, recycling and stocks-in-use
SO RESOURCES CONSERVATION AND RECYCLING
LA English
DT Article
DE PGM; Mining; Recycling; Modelling; Market; Scarcity
ID MAIN SULFIDE ZONE; BUSHVELD COMPLEX; GROUP ELEMENTS; GREAT DYKE;
   RESOURCES; FUTURE; FLOWS; AVAILABILITY; MINERALOGY; ZIMBABWE
AB The long term development of world primary extraction, market supply, recycling and extractable amounts of the platinum group metals platinum, palladium and rhodium was assessed. The degree of sustainability was estimated using system dynamics modelling. Compiling estimates from different sources, and considering recent technological advances in deep mining suggests that the Ultimately Recoverable Resource (URR) is about 216,000 ton of platinum group metals down to a mining depth of maximum 5 km, significantly more than earlier published estimates. The world supply and production of platinum group metals was calculated using system dynamics methodology to develop the PGM-model for this study. The model combines mining, ore grade changes, trade markets, price mechanisms, supply, demand, estimates of stock-in-use, waste, dissipative losses and recycling into a whole world system. The model was run for the period of 1900-2400. The model outputs were successfully tested on historic data for mining rate, ore grades and platinum market price during 1900-2014. The model indicates that extraction will reach maximum in the period 2020-2050 and that market supply will peak in 2070-2080. The delay is caused by the effect of recycling. The outputs from the model emphasize the importance of recycling, metal conservation and elimination of dissipative losses in order to secure long term sustainable platinum group metals supply. (C) 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
C1 [Sverdrup, Harald U.] Univ Iceland, Ind Engn, Hjardarhagi 6, IS-107 Reykjavik, Iceland.
   [Ragnarsdottir, Kristin Vala] Univ Iceland, Inst Earth Sci, IS-I01 Reykjavik, Iceland.
C3 University of Iceland; University of Iceland
RP Sverdrup, HU (corresponding author), Univ Iceland, Ind Engn, Hjardarhagi 6, IS-107 Reykjavik, Iceland.
EM hus@hi.is
RI Ragnarsdottir, Kristin Vala/L-5369-2016
OI Ragnarsdottir, Kristin Vala/0000-0001-6958-0734
FU German Federal Ministry for Environment; German Environmental Protection
   Agency [FICZ 3712 93 102]
FX This study contributed to the SimRess project ("Models, potential and
   long-term scenarios for resource efficiency"), funded by the German
   Federal Ministry for Environment and the German Environmental Protection
   Agency (FICZ 3712 93 102). Other partners to the SIMRESS project are
   CEC, Lund University, Lund, Sweden, Ecologic Institute, Berlin, Germany;
   the Institute of Economic Structures Research, GWS, Osnabruck, Germany;
   European School of Governance, EUSG, Berlin, Germany. Ullrich Lorenz is
   project officer at the German Environmental Protection Agency (UBA).
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NR 133
TC 102
Z9 121
U1 3
U2 109
PU ELSEVIER
PI AMSTERDAM
PA RADARWEG 29, 1043 NX AMSTERDAM, NETHERLANDS
SN 0921-3449
EI 1879-0658
J9 RESOUR CONSERV RECY
JI Resour. Conserv. Recycl.
PD NOV
PY 2016
VL 114
BP 130
EP 152
DI 10.1016/j.resconrec.2016.07.011
PG 23
WC Engineering, Environmental; Environmental Sciences
WE Science Citation Index Expanded (SCI-EXPANDED); Social Science Citation Index (SSCI)
SC Engineering; Environmental Sciences & Ecology
GA DW3ES
UT WOS:000383525500011
DA 2026-06-14
ER

PT J
AU Sverdrup, HU
AF Sverdrup, Harald Ulrik
TI Modelling global extraction, supply, price and depletion of the
   extractable geological resources with the LITHIUM model
SO RESOURCES CONSERVATION AND RECYCLING
LA English
DT Article
DE Lithium; Mining; Recycling; Price; Resources; System dynamics
ID SPODUMENE PEGMATITES; ION BATTERIES; FUTURE; METALS; AVAILABILITY;
   PROJECTION; RESERVES; PROGRESS; DEMAND; STOCKS
AB The global lithium supply dynamics, market price and duration of the available extractable amounts were explored using an integrated system dynamics model LITHIUM. The model simulations suggest that a maximum level of extraction may be reached 2060, followed by a slow decline in extraction. Because of recycling, the supply is kept up longer and the decline is slower. The supply will initially be sufficient for the demand from new electric vehicles, after 2050, prices may increase because as a feedback from stress to meet demand. After 2050 demand for batteries can no longer be met if the target is to replace all conventional vehicles and the price may rise. If our basic simulation assumptions are right, the lithium resources will be largely exhausted by 2400. The supply situation may be improved by additional efforts to increase recycling and product design to promote recycling ease. The analysis of available extractable resources suggests that resources are about 73 million ton lithium, far larger than several present estimates of resources. Introducing a new resource policy with significantly improved recycling and limiting irreversible lithium losses in the period 2015-2025 may significantly improve the lithium supply situation and potentially prevent lithium scarcity before 2100. (C) 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
C1 [Sverdrup, Harald Ulrik] Univ Iceland, Ind Engn, VR-2,Hjar D Arhagi 6, IS-107 Reykjavik, Iceland.
C3 University of Iceland
RP Sverdrup, HU (corresponding author), Univ Iceland, Ind Engn, VR-2,Hjar D Arhagi 6, IS-107 Reykjavik, Iceland.
EM hus@hi.is
FU German Federal Ministry for Environment; German Environmental Protection
   Agency [FKZ 3712 93 102]
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   Ecologic Institute, Berlin, Germany; the Institute of Economic
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NR 113
TC 110
Z9 134
U1 2
U2 133
PU ELSEVIER
PI AMSTERDAM
PA RADARWEG 29, 1043 NX AMSTERDAM, NETHERLANDS
SN 0921-3449
EI 1879-0658
J9 RESOUR CONSERV RECY
JI Resour. Conserv. Recycl.
PD NOV
PY 2016
VL 114
BP 112
EP 129
DI 10.1016/j.resconrec.2016.07.002
PG 18
WC Engineering, Environmental; Environmental Sciences
WE Science Citation Index Expanded (SCI-EXPANDED); Social Science Citation Index (SSCI)
SC Engineering; Environmental Sciences & Ecology
GA DW3ES
UT WOS:000383525500010
DA 2026-06-14
ER

PT J
AU Sverdrup, HU
   Ragnarsdottir, KV
   Koca, D
AF Sverdrup, Harald U.
   Ragnarsdottir, Kristin Vala
   Koca, Deniz
TI Aluminium for the future: Modelling the global production, market
   supply, demand, price and long term development of the global reserves
SO RESOURCES CONSERVATION AND RECYCLING
LA English
DT Article
DE Aluminium; Mining; Systems dynamics; Reserves; Price
ID IN-USE STOCKS; UNITED-STATES; SUSTAINABILITY; DYNAMICS; COPPER; FLOWS;
   CHINA
AB The reserves, production from mines, supply of aluminium to society and mass fluxes of aluminium in society was assessed using an integrated systems dynamics model (ALUMINIUM) in order to reconstruct the past and investigate potential future scenarios. The investigations for input data show that the mineable aluminium reserves are large, but finite. We get an average value for the ultimately recoverable reserve to be about 20-25 billion ton aluminium. The production of aluminium at present is 50 million ton per year. Continuing business-as-usual consumption with sustained global population growth above 7 billion people combined with a decline in cheap fossil fuels, aluminium may in the long perspective be a more expensive product than today. Should the event of a need for substituting a significant part of copper, iron, steel and stainless steel with aluminium arise, the time to scarcity for aluminium could become an issue within the next four decades. Ultimately, continuation of the aluminium production may in the future become limited by access to energy. Whereas aluminium primary production may go through a peak in the next decades, supply to society will not reach a peak before the end of the century, because of recycling from the stock in society. The model suggests that the supply level will decline to 2014 level sometime around 2250, or 230 years into the future. (C) 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
C1 [Sverdrup, Harald U.] Univ Iceland, Ind Engn, IS-107 Reykjavik, Iceland.
   [Ragnarsdottir, Kristin Vala] Univ Iceland, Inst Earth Sci, IS-107 Reykjavik, Iceland.
   [Koca, Deniz] Lund Univ, Ctr Environm & Climate Res, SE-22100 Lund, Sweden.
C3 University of Iceland; University of Iceland; Lund University
RP Sverdrup, HU (corresponding author), Univ Iceland, Ind Engn, Hjaroarhagi 2-6, IS-107 Reykjavik, Iceland.
EM hus@hi.is
RI Ragnarsdottir, Kristin Vala/L-5369-2016
OI Ragnarsdottir, Kristin Vala/0000-0001-6958-0734; Koca,
   Deniz/0000-0002-1672-3858
FU European Commission; German Federal Ministry of the Environment (BMU),
   Berlin; Federal Environmental Protection Agency (UBA), Dessau, Germany
FX This work started as part of the CONVERGE FP7-Environment research
   project funded by the European Commission (2009-2013). This work is now
   a part of the work done for the SIMRESS project, supported by the German
   Federal Ministry of the Environment (BMU), Berlin and the Federal
   Environmental Protection Agency (UBA), Dessau, Germany. Project officer
   at UBA is Dr. Ullrich Lorenz. Dr. Ashok Khosla and Dr. Ernst U.
   Weizsacker at the UN-IRP and the Club of Rome are thanked for
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NR 130
TC 95
Z9 115
U1 3
U2 77
PU ELSEVIER
PI AMSTERDAM
PA RADARWEG 29, 1043 NX AMSTERDAM, NETHERLANDS
SN 0921-3449
EI 1879-0658
J9 RESOUR CONSERV RECY
JI Resour. Conserv. Recycl.
PD OCT
PY 2015
VL 103
BP 139
EP 154
DI 10.1016/j.resconrec.2015.06.008
PG 16
WC Engineering, Environmental; Environmental Sciences
WE Science Citation Index Expanded (SCI-EXPANDED)
SC Engineering; Environmental Sciences & Ecology
GA CT2FY
UT WOS:000362618600013
DA 2026-06-14
ER

PT J
AU Pasqualino, R
   Jones, AW
   Monasterolo, I
   Phillips, A
AF Pasqualino, Roberto
   Jones, Aled W.
   Monasterolo, Irene
   Phillips, Alexander
TI Understanding Global Systems Today-A Calibration of the World3-03 Model
   between 1995 and 2012
SO SUSTAINABILITY
LA English
DT Article
DE systems dynamics; World3; natural resources; limits to growth; footprint
ID DYNAMICS MODELS; THE-LIMITS; GROWTH; SENSITIVITY; COLLAPSE
AB In 1972 the Limits to Growth report was published. It used the World3 model to better understand the dynamics of global systems and their relationship to finite resource availability, land use, and persistent pollution accumulation. The trends of resource depletion and degradation of physical systems which were identified by Limits to Growth have continued. Although World3 forecast scenarios are based on key measures and assumptions that cannot be easily assessed using available data (i.e., non-renewable resources, persistent pollution), the dynamics of growth components of the model can be compared with publicly available global data trends. Based on Scenario 2 of the Limits to Growth study, we present a calibration of the updated World3-03 model using historical data from 1995 to 2012 to better understand the dynamics of today's economic and resource system. Given that accurate data on physical limits does not currently exist, the dynamics of overshoot to global limits are not assessed. In this paper we offer a new interpretation of the parametrisation of World3-03 using these data to explore how its assumptions on global dynamics, environmental footprints and responses have changed over the past 40 years. The results show that human society has invested more to abate persistent pollution, to increase food productivity and have a more productive service sector.
C1 [Pasqualino, Roberto; Jones, Aled W.; Phillips, Alexander] Anglia Ruskin Univ, Global Sustainabil Inst, Cambridge CB1 1PT, England.
   [Monasterolo, Irene] Boston Univ, Frederick S Pardee Ctr Study Longer Range Future, Boston, MA 02215 USA.
C3 Anglia Ruskin University; Boston University
RP Jones, AW (corresponding author), Anglia Ruskin Univ, Global Sustainabil Inst, East Rd, Cambridge CB1 1PT, England.
EM roberto.pasqualino@anglia.ac.uk; aled.jones@anglia.ac.uk;
   irene.monasterolo@anglia.ac.uk; alexander.phillips@anglia.ac.uk
OI Jones, Aled/0000-0001-7823-9116
FU Dawe Charitable Trust
FX The work related to this paper has been supported by the Dawe Charitable
   Trust. The authors would like to thank the reviewers of this paper for
   very useful and detailed feedback and comments. The paper is much
   stronger as a result of this feedback.
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NR 27
TC 23
Z9 23
U1 0
U2 13
PU MDPI AG
PI BASEL
PA POSTFACH, CH-4005 BASEL, SWITZERLAND
SN 2071-1050
J9 SUSTAINABILITY-BASEL
JI Sustainability
PD AUG
PY 2015
VL 7
IS 8
BP 9864
EP 9889
DI 10.3390/su7089864
PG 26
WC Green & Sustainable Science & Technology; Environmental Sciences;
   Environmental Studies
WE Science Citation Index Expanded (SCI-EXPANDED); Social Science Citation Index (SSCI)
SC Science & Technology - Other Topics; Environmental Sciences & Ecology
GA CR8KM
UT WOS:000361600400007
OA Green Submitted, gold
DA 2026-06-14
ER

PT J
AU Sverdrup, HU
   Ragnarsdottir, KV
   Koca, D
AF Sverdrup, Harald U.
   Ragnarsdottir, Kristin Vala
   Koca, Deniz
TI On modelling the global copper mining rates, market supply, copper price
   and the end of copper reserves
SO RESOURCES CONSERVATION AND RECYCLING
LA English
DT Article
DE Copper; Price; Reserves; Mining; Recycling; Dynamic modelling;
   Sustainability
ID STOCKS; METALS; FLOW
AB The world supply and turnover of copper was modelled using simple empirical estimates and a COPPER systems dynamics model developed for this study. The model combines mining, trade markets, price mechanisms, population dynamics, use in society and waste as well as recycling, into a whole world system. The degree of sustainability and resource time horizon was estimated using four different methods including (1) burn-off rates, (2) peak discovery early warning, (3) Hubbert's production model, and (4) COPPER, a system dynamics model. The ultimately recoverable reserves (URR) have been estimated using different sources that converge around 2800 million tonne, where about 800 million tonne have already been mined, and 2000 million tonne remain. The different methods independently suggest peak copper mine production in the near future. The model was run for a longer period to cover all systems dynamics and delays. The peak production estimates are in a narrow window in time, from 2031 to 2042, with the best model estimate in 2034, or 21 years from the date of writing. In a longer perspective, taking into account price and recycling, the supply of copper to society is estimated to run out sometime after 2400. The outputs from all models put focus on the importance of copper recycling so that society can become more sustainable with respect to copper supply. (C) 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
C1 [Sverdrup, Harald U.] Univ Iceland, IS-107 Reykjavik, Iceland.
   [Ragnarsdottir, Kristin Vala] Univ Iceland, Inst Earth Sci & Sustainabil Studies, IS-101 Reykjavik, Iceland.
   [Koca, Deniz] Lund Univ, Appl Syst Anal & Syst Dynam Grp, SE-22100 Lund, Sweden.
C3 University of Iceland; University of Iceland; Lund University
RP Sverdrup, HU (corresponding author), Univ Iceland, VR II,Hjardahagi 2-6, IS-107 Reykjavik, Iceland.
EM Harald.sverdrup@chemeng.lth.se; vala@hi.is; Deniz.koca@chemeng.lth.se
RI Ragnarsdottir, Kristin Vala/L-5369-2016
OI Ragnarsdottir, Kristin Vala/0000-0001-6958-0734; Koca,
   Deniz/0000-0002-1672-3858
FU VINNOVA; German Federal Ministry for Environment; German Environmental
   Protection Agency; EU FP 7 (Environment)
FX Dr. Ashok Mhos la at the UN-IRP and the Club of Rome is thanked for
   encouraging our work and emphasizing the importance of considering
   future material limits in policy development considerations. This study
   was done as a part of the work that goes into the Real Change and the
   CONVERGE programmes, funded by VINNOVA and EU FP 7 (Environment). It is
   also an input to the SIMRESS project funded by the German Federal
   Ministry for Environment and the German Environmental Protection Agency.
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NR 66
TC 126
Z9 155
U1 1
U2 103
PU ELSEVIER
PI AMSTERDAM
PA RADARWEG 29, 1043 NX AMSTERDAM, NETHERLANDS
SN 0921-3449
EI 1879-0658
J9 RESOUR CONSERV RECY
JI Resour. Conserv. Recycl.
PD JUN
PY 2014
VL 87
BP 158
EP 174
DI 10.1016/j.resconrec.2014.03.007
PG 17
WC Engineering, Environmental; Environmental Sciences
WE Science Citation Index Expanded (SCI-EXPANDED)
SC Engineering; Environmental Sciences & Ecology
GA AJ6BY
UT WOS:000337775900017
DA 2026-06-14
ER

PT J
AU Sverdrup, H
   Koca, D
   Ragnarsdottir, KV
AF Sverdrup, Harald
   Koca, Deniz
   Ragnarsdottir, Kristin Vala
TI Investigating the sustainability of the global silver supply, reserves,
   stocks in society and market price using different approaches
SO RESOURCES CONSERVATION AND RECYCLING
LA English
DT Article
DE Silver; Reserves; Mining; Recycling; Modelling; Sustainability
AB The authors have collected data for the silver market, shedding light on market size, stocks in society and silver flows in society. The world supply from mining, depletion of the remaining reserves, reducing ore grades, market price and turnover of silver was simulated using the SILVER model developed for this study. The model combines mining, trade markets, price mechanisms, populations dynamics, use in society and waste and recycling into an integrated system. At the same time the degree of sustainability and resource time horizon was estimated using different methods such as: 1: burn-off rates, 2: peak discovery early warning, 3: Hubbert's production model, and 4: System dynamic modelling. The Hubbert's model was run for the period of 6000 BC-3000 AD, the SILVER system dynamics model was run for the time range 1840-2340. We have estimated that the ultimately recoverable reserves of silver are in the range 2.7-3.1 million tonne silver at present, of which approximately 1.35-1.46 million tonne have already been mined. The timing estimate range for peak silver production is narrow, in the range 2027-2038, with the best estimate in 2034. By 2240, all silver mines will be nearly empty and exhausted. The outputs from all models converge to emphasize the importance of consistent recycling and the avoidance of irreversible losses to make society more sustainable with respect to silver market supply. (C) 2013 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
C1 [Sverdrup, Harald; Koca, Deniz] Lund Univ, Appl Syst Anal & Dynam Grp, SE-22100 Lund, Sweden.
   [Ragnarsdottir, Kristin Vala] Univ Iceland, Inst Earth Sci & Sustainable Dev, Askja, IS-101 Reykjavik, Iceland.
C3 Lund University; University of Iceland
RP Sverdrup, H (corresponding author), Lund Univ, Appl Syst Anal & Dynam Grp, Box 124, SE-22100 Lund, Sweden.
EM harald.sverdrup@chemeng.lth.se
RI Ragnarsdottir, Kristin Vala/L-5369-2016
OI Ragnarsdottir, Kristin Vala/0000-0001-6958-0734; Koca,
   Deniz/0000-0002-1672-3858
FU EU [227030]; REAL CHANGE programme; Swedish Environmental Protection
   Agency; VINNOVA research board, Sweden; German Federal Ministry of the
   German Environment (BMU), Berlin; Federal Environmental Protection
   Agency (UBA), Dessau
FX K.A. Rasmussen a/s Precious Metals Industries, Hamar, Norway, supported
   our studies with unpublished inside industry information, providing
   access to industrial databases. The company recycles precious metals,
   and contributes by recycling with high yield to preserving silver in
   society. This work was part of a joint effort with the CONVERGE project
   funded under the EU Framework 7 Research programme (Rethinking
   Globalisation in the Light of Contraction and Convergence - Contract no
   227030 under Environment Including Climate Change). The work was also
   supported by the REAL CHANGE programme, funded by the Swedish
   Environmental Protection Agency and the VINNOVA research board, Sweden.
   The project supplies information to the SIMRESS project, supported by
   the German Federal Ministry of the German Environment (BMU), Berlin and
   the Federal Environmental Protection Agency (UBA), Dessau.
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NR 55
TC 80
Z9 99
U1 3
U2 37
PU ELSEVIER
PI AMSTERDAM
PA RADARWEG 29, 1043 NX AMSTERDAM, NETHERLANDS
SN 0921-3449
EI 1879-0658
J9 RESOUR CONSERV RECY
JI Resour. Conserv. Recycl.
PD FEB
PY 2014
VL 83
BP 121
EP 140
DI 10.1016/j.resconrec.2013.12.008
PG 20
WC Engineering, Environmental; Environmental Sciences
WE Science Citation Index Expanded (SCI-EXPANDED)
SC Engineering; Environmental Sciences & Ecology
GA AC3TR
UT WOS:000332444600012
OA hybrid
DA 2026-06-14
ER

PT J
AU Simonovic, SP
AF Simonovic, SP
TI World water dynamics: global modeling of water resources
SO JOURNAL OF ENVIRONMENTAL MANAGEMENT
LA English
DT Article
DE water resources; global modeling; system dynamics; water balance
AB The growing scarcity of fresh and clean water is among the most important issues facing civilization in the 21st century. Despite the growing attention to a chronic, pernicious crisis in world's water resources our ability to correctly assess and predict global water availability, use and balance is still quite limited. An attempt is documented here in modeling global world water resources using system dynamics approach. Water resources sector (quantity and quality) is integrated with five sectors that drive industrial growth: population; agriculture; economy; nonrenewable resources; and persistent pollution. WorldWater model is developed on the basis of the last version of World3 model. Simulations of world water dynamics with, WorldWater indicate that there is a strong relationship between the world water resources and future industrial growth of the world. It is also shown that the water pollution is the most important future water issue on the global level. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.
C1 UWO, Civ & Environm Engn, London, ON, Canada.
C3 Western University (University of Western Ontario)
RP Simonovic, SP (corresponding author), UWO, Civ & Environm Engn, London, ON, Canada.
EM simonovic@uwo.ca
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NR 34
TC 160
Z9 213
U1 1
U2 129
PU ACADEMIC PRESS LTD- ELSEVIER SCIENCE LTD
PI LONDON
PA 24-28 OVAL RD, LONDON NW1 7DX, ENGLAND
SN 0301-4797
EI 1095-8630
J9 J ENVIRON MANAGE
JI J. Environ. Manage.
PD NOV
PY 2002
VL 66
IS 3
BP 249
EP 267
DI 10.1006/jema.2002.0585
PG 19
WC Environmental Sciences
WE Science Citation Index Expanded (SCI-EXPANDED)
SC Environmental Sciences & Ecology
GA 610WM
UT WOS:000178984800004
PM 12448404
DA 2026-06-14
ER

PT J
AU Woodwell, JC
AF Woodwell, JC
TI A simulation model to illustrate feedbacks among resource consumption,
   production, and factors of production in ecological-economic systems
SO ECOLOGICAL MODELLING
LA English
DT Article
DE economic; STELLA; world model
AB A system dynamics production model illustrates feedbacks between economic growth and resource depletion. Man-made capital, renewable natural capital, nonrenewable natural capital, and human capital are factors of production in a Cobb-Douglas production function. Technology in production sets the overall level of efficiency in production. Feedbacks between production and factors of production, and biological and physical limits on the availability of natural resources, place limits on the scale of consumption of those resources. Output rises smoothly or dives toward zero depending on resource consumption strategies and the specification of the technology term in the race against a growing, resource-consuming population. Adjusting parameters within the model and changing the specification of some variables illustrates the isolated effect of resource depletion, technological development, or other factors, on per-capita production. These experiments with the model illustrate competing world views expressed in models of production and resource use, notably in Meadows et al.'s (1972 The Limits to Growth, Universe Books,NY, pp. 204; 1992 Beyond the Limits, Chelsea Green, Vermont, pp. 300) world model and the models of its critics. (C) 1998 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.
C1 Univ Maryland, Inst Ecol Econ, College Pk, MD 20742 USA.
C3 University System of Maryland; University of Maryland College Park
RP Woodwell, JC (corresponding author), Univ Maryland, Inst Ecol Econ, Room 2111 Agr & Life Sci Surge Bldg 296, College Pk, MD 20742 USA.
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NR 17
TC 16
Z9 35
U1 1
U2 27
PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE BV
PI AMSTERDAM
PA PO BOX 211, 1000 AE AMSTERDAM, NETHERLANDS
SN 0304-3800
J9 ECOL MODEL
JI Ecol. Model.
PD OCT 15
PY 1998
VL 112
IS 2-3
BP 227
EP 247
DI 10.1016/S0304-3800(98)00080-5
PG 21
WC Ecology
WE Science Citation Index Expanded (SCI-EXPANDED); Social Science Citation Index (SSCI)
SC Environmental Sciences & Ecology
GA 142BY
UT WOS:000077181100008
DA 2026-06-14
ER

PT J
AU BURNETT, RA
   DIONNE, PJ
AF BURNETT, RA
   DIONNE, PJ
TI GLOBE6 - MULTIREGION INTERACTIVE WORLD SIMULATION
SO SIMULATION
LA English
DT Article
C1 BATTELLE MEM INST,PACIFIC NW LABS,RICHLAND,WA 99352.
C3 United States Department of Energy (DOE); Pacific Northwest National
   Laboratory; Battelle Memorial Institute
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NR 3
TC 0
Z9 0
U1 0
U2 0
PU SIMULATION COUNCILS INC
PI SAN DIEGO
PA PO BOX 17900, SAN DIEGO, CA 92117
SN 0037-5497
J9 SIMULATION
JI Simulation
PY 1973
VL 20
IS 6
BP 192
EP 197
DI 10.1177/003754977302000602
PG 6
WC Computer Science, Interdisciplinary Applications; Computer Science,
   Software Engineering
WE Science Citation Index Expanded (SCI-EXPANDED)
SC Computer Science
GA Q1935
UT WOS:A1973Q193500004
DA 2026-06-14
ER

EF