FN Clarivate Analytics Web of Science
VR 1.0
PT J
AU Chikhani, P
   Renne, J
AF Chikhani, Pauline
   Renne, Jean-Paul
TI An analytical framework to price long-dated climate-exposed assets
SO QUANTITATIVE ECONOMICS
LA English
DT Article
DE Integrated assessment model; term structure model; temperature risk
   premium; climate linkers; C32; E43; G12; H43; Q54
ID SOCIAL COST; IMPULSE-RESPONSE; AFFINE PROCESSES; RUN RISKS; CARBON;
   UNCERTAINTY; TEMPERATURE; MARKET; EMISSIONS; POLICY
AB This paper uses a tractable stochastic integrated-assessment model to analyze the influence of climate change on asset returns across time and maturity. Quasi-analytical, or recursive, formulas allow to price various long-dated assets, including fixed-income products, derivatives, and equities. We find that climate risks will increasingly drive down long-term risk-free yields, reducing them by about 30 basis points by the end of the century. This decline reflects weaker growth and increased uncertainty, leading to a rise in precautionary savings. We illustrate the concept of climate risk premiums by examining model-implied prices of long-term assets vulnerable to sea level rise or temperatures. Climate risk premiums are particularly sensitive to damage assumptions.
C1 [Chikhani, Pauline; Renne, Jean-Paul] Univ Lausanne, Fac Business & Econ HEC, Lausanne, Switzerland.
C3 University of Lausanne
RP Renne, J (corresponding author), Univ Lausanne, Fac Business & Econ HEC, Lausanne, Switzerland.
EM pauline.chikhani@unil.ch; jean-paul.renne@unil.ch
OI Chikhani, Pauline/0009-0005-6804-9067
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NR 121
TC 0
Z9 0
U1 3
U2 3
PU WILEY
PI HOBOKEN
PA 111 RIVER ST, HOBOKEN 07030-5774, NJ USA
SN 1759-7323
EI 1759-7331
J9 QUANT ECON
JI Quant. Econ.
PD NOV
PY 2025
VL 16
IS 4
BP 1093
EP 1146
DI 10.3982/QE2570
PG 54
WC Economics
WE Social Science Citation Index (SSCI)
SC Business & Economics
GA L7324
UT WOS:001629858400002
OA gold
DA 2026-06-14
ER

PT J
AU Rodés-Bachs, C
   Drouet, L
   Rafaj, P
   Tavoni, M
   Reis, LA
AF Rodes-Bachs, Claudia
   Drouet, Laurent
   Rafaj, Peter
   Tavoni, Massimo
   Reis, Lara Aleluia
TI Beyond the limit: The estimated air pollution damages of overshooting
   the temperature target
SO SCIENCE ADVANCES
LA English
DT Article
ID PREMATURE HUMAN MORTALITY; FINE PARTICULATE MATTER; HEALTH CO-BENEFITS;
   GLOBAL BURDEN; ECONOMIC-IMPACTS; PARIS AGREEMENT; CLIMATE; DISEASE;
   EXPOSURE; MODEL
AB Exposure to outdoor air pollution results in millions of premature deaths and illnesses that are associated with substantial economic loss. According to the Global Burden of Disease, outdoor air pollution was responsible for 4.7 million deaths in 2021. Climate change mitigation policies could provide cobenefits by reducing air pollution. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change AR6 report explores scenarios using an updated carbon budget approach-the net-zero pathways-designed to avoid temporary overshoot of the 1.5 degrees C temperature limit. We assess whether net-zero pathways consistently improve air pollution outcomes using a global source-receptor air pollution model to estimate concentrations, health impacts, and economic damages. To analyze key uncertainties, we apply multiple relative risk functions and economic damage models. Our findings show that stringent climate policies, avoiding overshoot and keeping below 2 degrees C, offer substantial health and economic cobenefits, particularly for China and India, and avoid 207,000 premature deaths and 2269 billion USD2020 in damages by 2030.
C1 [Rodes-Bachs, Claudia] Basque Ctr Climate Change, Leioa, Spain.
   [Rodes-Bachs, Claudia; Drouet, Laurent; Tavoni, Massimo; Reis, Lara Aleluia] CMCC Fdn, Euro Mediterranean Ctr Climate Change, Lecce, Italy.
   [Drouet, Laurent; Tavoni, Massimo; Reis, Lara Aleluia] RFF CMCC European Inst Econ & Environm, Milan, Italy.
   [Rafaj, Peter] Int Inst Appl Syst Anal IIASA, A-2361 Laxenburg, Austria.
   [Tavoni, Massimo] Politecn Milan, Milan, Italy.
C3 Basque Centre for Climate Change (BC3); Centro Euro-Mediterraneo sui
   Cambiamenti Climatici (CMCC); International Institute for Applied
   Systems Analysis (IIASA); Polytechnic University of Milan
RP Rodés-Bachs, C (corresponding author), Basque Ctr Climate Change, Leioa, Spain.; Rodés-Bachs, C (corresponding author), CMCC Fdn, Euro Mediterranean Ctr Climate Change, Lecce, Italy.
EM claudia.rodes@bc3research.org
RI ; Aleluia Reis, Lara/AFV-8907-2022; Rafaj, Peter/MEO-0441-2025; Drouet,
   Laurent/J-9894-2019
OI tavoni, massimo/0000-0001-5069-4707; Rodés-Bachs,
   Clàudia/0000-0001-6696-7685; Aleluia Reis, Lara/0000-0002-6676-7007;
   Rafaj, Peter/0000-0003-1000-5617; Drouet, Laurent/0000-0002-4087-7662
FU European Union's Horizon Europe Research and Innovation Program under
   the ENGAGE project [821471]; AdJUST (Advancing the understanding of
   challenges, policy options and measures to achieve a JUST EU energy
   transition) project [101069880]; GRINS (Growing Resilient, INclusive and
   Sustainable) project [PE00000018]
FX This work was funded by the European Union's Horizon Europe Research and
   Innovation Program under the ENGAGE project (grant number 821471),
   AdJUST (Advancing the understanding of challenges, policy options and
   measures to achieve a JUST EU energy transition) project (grant number
   101069880), and the GRINS (Growing Resilient, INclusive and Sustainable)
   project (grant number PE00000018).
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NR 96
TC 4
Z9 4
U1 7
U2 10
PU AMER ASSOC ADVANCEMENT SCIENCE
PI WASHINGTON
PA 1200 NEW YORK AVE, NW, WASHINGTON, DC 20005 USA
EI 2375-2548
J9 SCI ADV
JI Sci. Adv.
PD OCT 17
PY 2025
VL 11
IS 42
AR eadu7590
DI 10.1126/sciadv.adu7590
PG 12
WC Multidisciplinary Sciences
WE Science Citation Index Expanded (SCI-EXPANDED)
SC Science & Technology - Other Topics
GA 8TH9Q
UT WOS:001596837700025
PM 41105773
OA Green Submitted, gold
DA 2026-06-14
ER

PT J
AU Jessop, N
   Arendarczyk, B
   Alexander, P
AF Jessop, Nicholas
   Arendarczyk, Bart
   Alexander, Peter
TI Implying climate impact from carbon prices and consumption
SO CLIMATE POLICY
LA English
DT Article; Early Access
DE Carbon pricing; environmental economics; integrated assessment
   modelling; climate policy curves
ID ECONOMIC-DEVELOPMENT; SOCIAL COST; EMISSIONS
AB The value of the social cost of carbon (SCC) remains contested, despite having been described as the single most important concept in the economics of climate change. The SCC represents the discounted reduction in welfare caused by the release of an additional tonne of carbon dioxide equivalent (tCO2e) greenhouse gas emissions into the atmosphere. In practice, many estimates of the SCC are not robust or comparable, due to technical issues, including parameter estimation in climate assessment models. Using a market-based approach to calculate climate change metrics can avoid some of the controversy associated with calculating the SCC and subjectivity in deriving temperature alignment from transition plans. This study inverts results from an integrated assessment model commonly used to calculate the optimal SCC. A relationship is inferred between carbon price and both climate damages and implied temperature alignment. Using national data on effective cost of carbon (ECC), i.e. current carbon prices, the global market-implied temperature alignment is 3 degrees C of warming. Using carbon consumption data to calculate implied climate impact, the per capita impact of higher-income countries is significantly higher than in low- and medium-income countries. The findings suggest that globally an ECC above $85/tCO2e may be required for implied temperature alignment to fall below 2 degrees C of warming. However, both higher-income economies and those with high per capita carbon consumption levels may need to set their ECC at twice this level if their climate impact is to fall below a level aligned with limiting warming to 2 degrees C.
C1 [Jessop, Nicholas] Heriot Watt Univ, Sch Math & Comp Sci, Edinburgh EH14 4AS, Scotland.
   [Arendarczyk, Bart; Alexander, Peter] Univ Edinburgh, Sch Geosci, Edinburgh, Scotland.
   [Alexander, Peter] Univ Edinburgh, Global Acad Agr & Food Secur, Royal Dick Sch Vet Studies, Edinburgh, Midlothian, Scotland.
C3 Heriot Watt University; University of Edinburgh; University of Edinburgh
RP Jessop, N (corresponding author), Heriot Watt Univ, Sch Math & Comp Sci, Edinburgh EH14 4AS, Scotland.
EM nj4001@hw.ac.uk
RI Alexander, Peter/AGE-8260-2022
OI Alexander, Peter/0000-0001-6010-1186
FU HORIZON; EU; MOSAIC
FX PA & BA acknowledge the support of EU Horizon projects ForestPaths and
   MOSAIC.
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NR 54
TC 1
Z9 1
U1 1
U2 3
PU TAYLOR & FRANCIS LTD
PI ABINGDON
PA 2-4 PARK SQUARE, MILTON PARK, ABINGDON OR14 4RN, OXON, ENGLAND
SN 1469-3062
EI 1752-7457
J9 CLIM POLICY
JI Clim. Policy
PD 2025 JUL 23
PY 2025
DI 10.1080/14693062.2025.2531094
EA JUL 2025
PG 14
WC Environmental Studies; Public Administration
WE Social Science Citation Index (SSCI)
SC Environmental Sciences & Ecology; Public Administration
GA 5CX4K
UT WOS:001532694800001
OA Green Published, hybrid
DA 2026-06-14
ER

PT J
AU Hambel, C
   van der Ploeg, F
AF Hambel, Christoph
   van der Ploeg, Frederick
TI Policy transition risk, carbon premiums, and asset prices
SO JOURNAL OF MONETARY ECONOMICS
LA English
DT Article
DE Carbon premium; Green transition; Policy transition risks; Physical
   risks
ID RARE DISASTERS; EMISSIONS
AB We analyze the effects of policy transition risk on asset pricing and the green transition using a global two-sector, macro-finance model of climate and the economy. Policy transition risk results from probabilistic changes between three policy states: no, modest, and ambitious carbon pricing. We show that policy transition risk leads to carbon premiums (i.e. higher expected returns on brown than on green assets), especially if the economy is still quite carbon-intensive and close to the temperature cap, and thus accelerate the green transition. Increased transition risk leads to more precautionary saving and falls in the risk-free rate. We offer extensions to deal with physical risks (temperature-related risk of climate disasters and climate tipping), technology transition risk, and more realistic policy tipping with endogenous transition probabilities.
C1 [Hambel, Christoph] Tilburg Univ, Tilburg Sch Econ & Management TiSEM, Dept Econometr & Operat Res, POB 90153, NL-5000 LE Tilburg, Netherlands.
   [Hambel, Christoph] Netspar, Tilburg, Netherlands.
   [van der Ploeg, Frederick] Univ Oxford, Dept Econ, Manor Rd Bldg, Oxford OX1 3UQ, England.
   [van der Ploeg, Frederick] Univ Amsterdam, POB 15551, NL-1001 NB Amsterdam, Netherlands.
   [van der Ploeg, Frederick] CEPR, London, England.
   [van der Ploeg, Frederick] CESifo, Munich, Germany.
C3 Tilburg University; Tilburg University; University of Oxford; University
   of Amsterdam; Centre for Economic Policy Research - UK; Leibniz
   Association; Ifo Institut
RP van der Ploeg, F (corresponding author), Univ Oxford, Dept Econ, Manor Rd Bldg, Oxford OX1 3UQ, England.
EM C.Hambel@tilburguniversity.edu; rick.vanderploeg@economics.ox.ac.uk
RI Hambel, Christoph/AAL-7645-2021
OI Hambel, Christoph/0000-0002-8061-5210
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NR 66
TC 7
Z9 8
U1 24
U2 56
PU ELSEVIER
PI AMSTERDAM
PA RADARWEG 29, 1043 NX AMSTERDAM, NETHERLANDS
SN 0304-3932
EI 1873-1295
J9 J MONETARY ECON
JI J. Monetary Econ.
PD JUN
PY 2025
VL 152
AR 103780
DI 10.1016/j.jmoneco.2025.103780
EA MAY 2025
PG 17
WC Business, Finance; Economics
WE Social Science Citation Index (SSCI)
SC Business & Economics
GA 3AT1S
UT WOS:001495872400004
OA Green Published, Green Submitted, hybrid
DA 2026-06-14
ER

PT J
AU Maurer, H
   Semmler, W
AF Maurer, Helmut
   Semmler, Willi
TI Multi-objective optimal control with carbon emission and temperature
   constraints: for achieving a low-fossil-fuel economy
SO CENTRAL EUROPEAN JOURNAL OF OPERATIONS RESEARCH
LA English
DT Article
DE Climate change model; Mitigation; Optimal control; Discretization
   methods; Turnpike solution; Fiscal policy
AB In this paper we propose multi-objective control to deal with climate change and climate risks and the transition to a low carbon economy. Extending our previous collaborative work as in Atolia et al. (Math Control Related Fields, 13:583-604, 2023), we again build on the Nordhaus type DICE model to include various optimal macroeconomic policies such as mitigation, adaptation and climate-related infrastructure investment studying the dynamics of the decarbonizing of the economy. Based on a finite horizon model that includes the threats of climate disasters arising from CO2\documentclass[12pt]{minimal} \usepackage{amsmath} \usepackage{wasysym} \usepackage{amsfonts} \usepackage{amssymb} \usepackage{amsbsy} \usepackage{mathrsfs} \usepackage{upgreek} \setlength{\oddsidemargin}{-69pt} \begin{document}$$CO_2$$\end{document} emissions and temperature rise, we deal with preventive measures such as adaptation reducing disaster effects. Our optimal control problem of finite horizon is consisting of a dynamical system with five-dimensional state vector representing stocks of private capital, green capital, public capital, stock of brown energy in the ground, carbon emissions, and temperature. The objective function captures preferences over consumption but is also impacted by atmospheric CO2\documentclass[12pt]{minimal} \usepackage{amsmath} \usepackage{wasysym} \usepackage{amsfonts} \usepackage{amssymb} \usepackage{amsbsy} \usepackage{mathrsfs} \usepackage{upgreek} \setlength{\oddsidemargin}{-69pt} \begin{document}$$CO_2$$\end{document}, climate risks events and by mitigation and adaptation policies. Given the numerous challenges to climate change policies with multiple objectives the control vector is eight-dimensional including mitigation, adaptation and infrastructure investment. The optimal control problem is studied under various state constraints. In two scenarios we compute the Pareto front for a bi-objective control problem. Optimization over the Pareto front provides us with suitable weights for the two objectives. In particular we explore the role of CO2\documentclass[12pt]{minimal} \usepackage{amsmath} \usepackage{wasysym} \usepackage{amsfonts} \usepackage{amssymb} \usepackage{amsbsy} \usepackage{mathrsfs} \usepackage{upgreek} \setlength{\oddsidemargin}{-69pt} \begin{document}$$CO_2$$\end{document} constraints, as the Kyoto Protocol has suggested, and temperature constraints, as the Copenhagen-Paris agreements have proposed.
C1 [Maurer, Helmut] Univ Munster, Inst Anal & Numer, Einsteinstr 62, D-48149 Munster, Germany.
   [Semmler, Willi] New Sch, Dept Econ, 6E 16th St, New York, NY 10003 USA.
   [Semmler, Willi] Univ Bielefeld, Bielefeld, Germany.
   [Semmler, Willi] IIASA, Laxenburg, Austria.
C3 University of Munster; The New School; University of Bielefeld;
   International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA)
RP Semmler, W (corresponding author), New Sch, Dept Econ, 6E 16th St, New York, NY 10003 USA.; Semmler, W (corresponding author), Univ Bielefeld, Bielefeld, Germany.; Semmler, W (corresponding author), IIASA, Laxenburg, Austria.
EM helmut.maurer@uni-muenster.de; SemmlerW@newschool.edu
FU International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA)
FX We thank Tato Khundadze for valuable assistance. We also want to thank
   Manoj Atolia and Prakash Loungani for cooperation on the issues
   addressed in this paper.
CR [Anonymous], 2018, About us
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NR 27
TC 1
Z9 1
U1 3
U2 7
PU SPRINGER
PI NEW YORK
PA ONE NEW YORK PLAZA, SUITE 4600, NEW YORK, NY, UNITED STATES
SN 1435-246X
EI 1613-9178
J9 CENT EUR J OPER RES
JI Cent. Europ. J. Oper. Res.
PD JUN
PY 2025
VL 33
IS 2
SI SI
BP 449
EP 471
DI 10.1007/s10100-025-00970-3
EA APR 2025
PG 23
WC Operations Research & Management Science
WE Science Citation Index Expanded (SCI-EXPANDED)
SC Operations Research & Management Science
GA 2CO6Y
UT WOS:001465488200001
OA Green Submitted, hybrid
DA 2026-06-14
ER

PT J
AU Chiani, L
   Borgonovo, E
   Plischke, E
   Tavoni, M
AF Chiani, Leonardo
   Borgonovo, Emanuele
   Plischke, Elmar
   Tavoni, Massimo
TI Global sensitivity analysis of integrated assessment models with
   multivariate outputs
SO RISK ANALYSIS
LA English
DT Article
DE climate change; global sensitivity analysis; integrated assessment
   models; uncertainty quantification
ID CLIMATE-CHANGE; UNCERTAINTY IMPORTANCE; CO2 EMISSIONS; PATHWAYS
AB Risk assessments of complex systems are often supported by quantitative models. The sophistication of these models and the presence of various uncertainties call for systematic robustness and sensitivity analyses. The multivariate nature of their response challenges the use of traditional approaches. We propose a structured methodology to perform uncertainty quantification and global sensitivity analysis for risk assessment models with multivariate outputs. At the core of the approach are novel sensitivity measures based on the theory of optimal transport. We apply the approach to the uncertainty quantification and global sensitivity analysis of emissions pathways estimated via an eminent open-source climate-economy model (RICE50+). The model has many correlated inputs and multivariate outputs. We use up-to-date input distributions and long-term projections of key demographic and socioeconomic drivers. The sensitivity of the model is explored under alternative policy architectures: a cost-benefit analysis with and without international cooperation and a cost-effective analysis consistent with the Paris Agreement objective of keeping temperature increase below 2 degrees C. In the cost-benefit scenarios, the key drivers of uncertainty are the emission intensity of the economy and the emission reduction costs. In the Paris Agreement scenario, the main driver is the sensitivity of the climate system, followed by the projected carbon intensity. We present insights at the multivariate model output level and discuss how the importance of inputs changes across regions and over time.
C1 [Chiani, Leonardo; Tavoni, Massimo] Politecn Milan, Dept Management Econ & Ind Engn, Milan, Italy.
   [Chiani, Leonardo; Tavoni, Massimo] CMCC Fdn, Euro Mediterranean Ctr Climate Change, Milan, Italy.
   [Chiani, Leonardo; Tavoni, Massimo] RFF CMCC European Inst Econ & Environm, Milan, Italy.
   [Borgonovo, Emanuele] Bocconi Univ, Dept Decis Sci, Via Roentgen 1, I-20136 Milan, Italy.
   [Borgonovo, Emanuele] Bocconi Univ, Bocconi Inst Data Sci & Analyt, Via Roentgen 1, I-20136 Milan, Italy.
   [Plischke, Elmar] Helmholtz Zentrum Dresden Rossendorf, Inst Resource Ecol, Dresden, Germany.
C3 Polytechnic University of Milan; Centro Euro-Mediterraneo sui
   Cambiamenti Climatici (CMCC); Bocconi University; Bocconi University;
   Helmholtz Association; Helmholtz-Zentrum Dresden-Rossendorf (HZDR)
RP Borgonovo, E (corresponding author), Bocconi Univ, Dept Decis Sci, Via Roentgen 1, I-20136 Milan, Italy.; Borgonovo, E (corresponding author), Bocconi Univ, Bocconi Inst Data Sci & Analyt, Via Roentgen 1, I-20136 Milan, Italy.
EM emanuele.borgonovo@unibocconi.it
RI Borgonovo, Emanuele/MTF-6253-2025; Chiani, Leonardo/NWI-1274-2025
OI Chiani, Leonardo/0009-0007-2491-6290
FU European Union's European Research Council (ERC) [101044703]; German
   Federal Ministry for the Environment, Nature Conservation, Nuclear
   Safety, and Consumer Protection (BMUV) [02E21112B]; European Research
   Council (ERC) [101044703] Funding Source: European Research Council
   (ERC)
FX The authors thank the editors, Professors Terje Aven and Tony Cox for
   their editorial efforts, and are grateful to two anonymous reviewers for
   their very perceptive comments. L. Chiani and M. Tavoni acknowledge
   funding from the European Union's European Research Council (ERC), Grant
   project No 101044703 (EUNICE). E. Plischke acknowledges funding by the
   German Federal Ministry for the Environment, Nature Conservation,
   Nuclear Safety, and Consumer Protection (BMUV) under grant #02E21112B.
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NR 83
TC 7
Z9 8
U1 5
U2 14
PU WILEY
PI HOBOKEN
PA 111 RIVER ST, HOBOKEN 07030-5774, NJ USA
SN 0272-4332
EI 1539-6924
J9 RISK ANAL
JI Risk Anal.
PD AUG
PY 2025
VL 45
IS 8
BP 2132
EP 2156
DI 10.1111/risa.70002
EA FEB 2025
PG 25
WC Public, Environmental & Occupational Health; Mathematics,
   Interdisciplinary Applications; Social Sciences, Mathematical Methods
WE Science Citation Index Expanded (SCI-EXPANDED); Social Science Citation Index (SSCI)
SC Public, Environmental & Occupational Health; Mathematics; Mathematical
   Methods In Social Sciences
GA 7ET7J
UT WOS:001427733300001
PM 39986893
OA Green Submitted, hybrid
DA 2026-06-14
ER

PT J
AU Chiquier, S
   Gurgel, A
   Morris, J
   Chen, YHH
   Paltsev, S
AF Chiquier, Solene
   Gurgel, Angelo
   Morris, Jennifer
   Chen, Yen-Heng Henry
   Paltsev, Sergey
TI Integrated assessment of carbon dioxide removal portfolios: land,
   energy, and economic trade-offs for climate policy
SO ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS
LA English
DT Article
DE carbon dioxide removal; negative emissions technologies; net-zero;
   scalability; sustainability; mitigation pathway
ID LIFE-CYCLE ASSESSMENT; BIOCHAR SYSTEMS; CO2 REMOVAL; DEPLOYMENT; RISKS
AB Carbon dioxide removal (CDR) is crucial to achieve the Paris Agreement's 1.5 degrees C-2 degrees C goals. However, climate mitigation scenarios have primarily focused on bioenergy with carbon capture and storage (BECCS), afforestation/reforestation, and recently direct air carbon capture and storage (DACCS). This narrow focus exposes future climate change mitigation strategies to technological, institutional, and ecological pressures by overlooking the variety of existing CDR options, each with distinct characteristics-including, but not limited to, mitigation potential, cost, co-benefits, and adverse side-effects. This study expands the scope by evaluating CDR portfolios, consisting of any single CDR approach-BECCS, afforestation/reforestation, DACCS, biochar, and enhanced weathering-or a combination of them. We analyse the value of deploying these CDR portfolios to meet 1.5 degrees C goals, as well as their global and regional implications for land, energy, and policy costs. We find that diversifying CDR approaches is the most cost-effective net-zero strategy. Without the overreliance on any single approach, land and energy impacts are reduced and redistributed. A diversified CDR portfolio thus exhibits lower negative side-effects, but still poses challenges related to environmental impacts, logistics or accountability. We also investigate a CDR portfolio designed to support more scalable and sustainable climate mitigation strategies, and identify trade-offs between reduced economic benefits and lower environmental impacts. Rather than a one-size-fits-all scaling down, the CDR portfolio undergoes strategic realignment, with regional customization based on techno-economic factors and bio-geophysical characteristics. Moreover, we highlight the importance of nature-based removals, especially in Brazil, Latin America, and Africa, where potentials for avoided deforestation are the greatest, emphasizing their substantial benefits, not only for carbon sequestration, but also for preserving planetary well-being and human health. Finally, this study reveals that incentivizing timely and large-scale CDR deployment by policy and financial incentives could reduce the risk of deterring climate change mitigation, notably by minimizing carbon prices.
C1 [Chiquier, Solene; Gurgel, Angelo; Morris, Jennifer; Chen, Yen-Heng Henry; Paltsev, Sergey] MIT, Ctr Sustainabil Sci & Strategy, Cambridge, MA 02139 USA.
   [Chiquier, Solene; Gurgel, Angelo; Morris, Jennifer; Chen, Yen-Heng Henry; Paltsev, Sergey] MIT, Energy Initiat, Cambridge, MA 02139 USA.
   [Chiquier, Solene] IFP Energies Nouvelles, CarMa IFP Sch Chair, Rueil Malmaison, France.
C3 Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT); Massachusetts Institute of
   Technology (MIT); IFP Energies Nouvelles
RP Chiquier, S (corresponding author), MIT, Ctr Sustainabil Sci & Strategy, Cambridge, MA 02139 USA.; Chiquier, S (corresponding author), MIT, Energy Initiat, Cambridge, MA 02139 USA.; Chiquier, S (corresponding author), IFP Energies Nouvelles, CarMa IFP Sch Chair, Rueil Malmaison, France.
EM chiquier@mit.edu
RI Gurgel, Angelo/D-9446-2013; Chiquier, Solene/KSM-9022-2024
OI Chiquier, Solene/0000-0002-2730-574X; Paltsev,
   Sergey/0000-0003-3287-0732
FU Chair CarMa IFP School Chair (S C); MIT Center for Sustainability
   Science and Strategy
FX This research was supported by the Chair CarMa IFP School Chair (S C)
   and by the MIT Center for Sustainability Science and Strategy (formerly
   MIT Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change) (S C, A G,
   H C, J M and S P). The authors thank John Reilly for his expertise and
   insightful feedback on the development and analysis of the scenarios
   presented here. The EPPA model employed in this study is supported by an
   international consortium of government, industry and foundation sponsors
   of the MIT Center for Sustainability Science and Strategy (see the list
   at: https://globalchange.mit.edu/sponsors/current).
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NR 83
TC 15
Z9 18
U1 16
U2 44
PU IOP Publishing Ltd
PI BRISTOL
PA TEMPLE CIRCUS, TEMPLE WAY, BRISTOL BS1 6BE, ENGLAND
SN 1748-9326
J9 ENVIRON RES LETT
JI Environ. Res. Lett.
PD FEB 1
PY 2025
VL 20
IS 2
AR 024002
DI 10.1088/1748-9326/ada4c0
PG 12
WC Environmental Sciences; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
WE Science Citation Index Expanded (SCI-EXPANDED)
SC Environmental Sciences & Ecology; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
GA S3B4M
UT WOS:001397018100001
OA Green Submitted, gold
DA 2026-06-14
ER

PT C
AU Biswas, P
   Osika, Z
   Tamassia, I
   Whorra, A
   Zatarain-Salazar, J
   Kwakkel, J
   Oliehoek, FA
   Murukannaiah, PK
AF Biswas, Palok
   Osika, Zuzanna
   Tamassia, Isidoro
   Whorra, Adit
   Zatarain-Salazar, Jazmin
   Kwakkel, Jan
   Oliehoek, Frans A.
   Murukannaiah, Pradeep K.
BE Kwok, J
TI Exploring Equity of Climate Policies using Multi-Agent Multi-Objective
   Reinforcement Learning
SO PROCEEDINGS OF THE THIRTY-FOURTH INTERNATIONAL JOINT CONFERENCE ON
   ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE (IJCAI 2025)
LA English
DT Proceedings Paper
CT 34th International Joint Conference on Artificial Intelligence-IJCAI
CY AUG 16-22, 2025
CL Montreal, CANADA
ID INTEGRATED ASSESSMENT; MODEL
AB Addressing climate change requires coordinated policy efforts of nations worldwide. These efforts are informed by scientific reports, which rely in part on Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs), prominent tools used to assess the economic impacts of climate policies. However, traditional IAMs optimize policies based on a single objective, limiting their ability to capture the trade-offs among economic growth, temperature goals, and climate justice. As a result, policy recommendations have been criticized for perpetuating inequalities, fueling disagreements during policy negotiations. We introduce JUSTICE, the first framework integrating IAM with Multi-Objective Multi-Agent Reinforcement Learning (MOMARL). By incorporating multiple objectives, JUSTICE generates policy recommendations that shed light on equity while balancing climate and economic goals. Further, using multiple agents can provide a realistic representation of the interactions among the diverse policy actors. We identify equitable Pareto-optimal policies using our framework, which facilitates deliberative decision-making by presenting policymakers with the inherent trade-offs in climate and economic policy.
C1 [Biswas, Palok; Osika, Zuzanna; Tamassia, Isidoro; Whorra, Adit; Zatarain-Salazar, Jazmin; Kwakkel, Jan; Oliehoek, Frans A.; Murukannaiah, Pradeep K.] Delft Univ Technol, Delft, Netherlands.
C3 Delft University of Technology
RP Biswas, P (corresponding author), Delft Univ Technol, Delft, Netherlands.
EM p.biswas@tudelft.nl; z.osika@tudelft.nl; isidorotamassia@gmail.com;
   aditwhorra@gmail.com; j.zatarainsalazar@tudelft.nl;
   j.h.kwakkel@tudelft.nl; f.a.oliehoek@tudelft.nl;
   p.k.murukannaiah@tudelft.nl
RI ; Kwakkel, Jan/D-9680-2013
OI Tamassia, Isidoro/0009-0004-0950-2960; 
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NR 42
TC 0
Z9 0
U1 1
U2 1
PU ASSOC COMPUTATIONAL LINGUISTICS-ACL
PI STROUDSBURG
PA 209 N EIGHTH STREET, STROUDSBURG, PA 18360 USA
BN 978-1-956792-06-5
PY 2025
BP 9573
EP 9581
PG 9
WC Computer Science, Artificial Intelligence; Computer Science, Theory &
   Methods
WE Conference Proceedings Citation Index - Science (CPCI-S)
SC Computer Science
GA BZ8VB
UT WOS:001634925300422
DA 2026-06-14
ER

PT J
AU Grubb, M
   Lange, RJ
   Cerkez, N
   Sognnaes, I
   Wieners, C
   Salas, P
AF Grubb, Michael
   Lange, Rutger-Jan
   Cerkez, Nicolas
   Sognnaes, Ida
   Wieners, Claudia
   Salas, Pablo
TI Dynamic determinants of optimal global climate policy
SO STRUCTURAL CHANGE AND ECONOMIC DYNAMICS
LA English
DT Article
DE Climate Change; Optimal abatement; Induced innovation; Path dependence;
   dependence Globalcost-benefit
ID DIRECTED TECHNICAL CHANGE; ECONOMICS; ENVIRONMENT; TRANSITION; INERTIA;
   GROWTH; DAMAGE; TAXES; COST; PATH
AB We explore the impact of dynamic characteristics of greenhouse-gas emitting systems, such as inertia, induced innovation, and path-dependency, on optimal responses to climate change. Our compact and analytically tractable model, applied with stylized damage assumptions to derive optimal pathways, highlights how simple dynamic parameters affect responses including the optimal current effort and the cost of delay. The conventional cost-benefit result (i.e., an optimal policy with rising marginal costs that reflects discounted climate damages) arises only as a special case in which the dynamic characteristics of emitting systems are assumed to be insignificant. Our analysis highlights and distinguishes from the (often implicit) assumption in many cost-benefit models, which neglect inertia and assume exogenous technology progress. This tends to defer action. More generally, our model yields useful policy insights for the transition to deep decarbonization, showing that enhanced early action may greatly reduce both damages and abatement costs in the long run.
C1 [Grubb, Michael] UCL, Inst Sustainable Resources, London, England.
   [Lange, Rutger-Jan] Erasmus Univ, Dept Econometr, Rotterdam, Netherlands.
   [Cerkez, Nicolas] Univ Oxford, Dept Int Dev, Oxford, England.
   [Wieners, Claudia] Univ Utrecht, Inst Marine & Atmospher Res, Utrecht, Netherlands.
   [Salas, Pablo] Int Finance Corp, Washington, DC USA.
   [Sognnaes, Ida] Ctr Int Climate & Environm Res, Oslo, Norway.
   [Salas, Pablo] Univ Cambridge, Cambridge Ctr Environm Energy & Nat Resource Gover, Cambridge, England.
C3 University of London; University College London; Erasmus University
   Rotterdam; Erasmus University Rotterdam - Excl Erasmus MC; University of
   Oxford; Utrecht University; University of Cambridge
RP Grubb, M (corresponding author), UCL, Inst Sustainable Resources, London, England.
EM m.grubb@ucl.ac.uk; lange@ese.eur.nl; nicolas.cerkez@qeh.ox.ac.uk;
   ida.sognnas@cicero.oslo.no; c.e.wieners@uu.nl; psalasbravo@ifc.org
RI Grubb, Michael/ITU-1302-2023; Wieners, Claudia/IWL-8792-2023; Lange,
   Rutger-Jan/H-3881-2019
OI Grubb, Michael/0000-0003-2393-3041; Lange,
   Rutger-Jan/0000-0001-7657-5001
FU Joseph Rowntree Trust; ESRC [ES/N013174/1]; ClimateWorks Foundation
   [19-1466]
FX Funding from the Joseph Rowntree Trust (Salas and Grubb), the ESRC
   program "Rebuilding Macroeconomics"(Cerkez and Grubb), the ESRC
   (ES/N013174/1) (Salas), ClimateWorks Foundation (ID# 19-1466) (Grubb and
   Wieners), and Paul and Michelle Gilding (Prince of Wales Global
   Sustainability Fellowship in Radical Innovation and Disruption) (Salas)
   is gratefully acknowledged.
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NR 56
TC 3
Z9 5
U1 2
U2 10
PU ELSEVIER
PI AMSTERDAM
PA RADARWEG 29, 1043 NX AMSTERDAM, NETHERLANDS
SN 0954-349X
EI 1873-6017
J9 STRUCT CHANGE ECON D
JI Struct. Change and Econ. Dyn.
PD DEC
PY 2024
VL 71
BP 490
EP 508
DI 10.1016/j.strueco.2024.07.005
PG 19
WC Economics
WE Social Science Citation Index (SSCI)
SC Business & Economics
GA T7U0B
UT WOS:001406995800001
OA Green Submitted, hybrid
DA 2026-06-14
ER

PT J
AU Shayegh, S
   Reissl, S
   Roshan, E
   Calcaterra, M
AF Shayegh, Soheil
   Reissl, Severin
   Roshan, Elnaz
   Calcaterra, Matteo
TI An assessment of different transition pathways to a green global economy
SO COMMUNICATIONS EARTH & ENVIRONMENT
LA English
DT Article
ID ENDOGENOUS TECHNOLOGICAL-CHANGE; RENEWABLE ENERGY; DICE MODEL; CLIMATE;
   INVESTMENT; SYSTEM; COSTS; POWER; JOBS
AB Transitioning to a green economy is urgently needed to achieve the climate targets by the end of this century. Here we investigate alternative pathways for the transition of the global economy from one dominated by the fossil-fueled (brown) sector to one dominated by the low-emission (green) sector. We modify a well-known integrated assessment model of climate change and economy to consider three transition pathways: Linear, Delayed, and Fast. Our results indicate that the main burden of the green transition lies on capital formation, accumulation, and transfers facilitated by full R&D investment in the green sector's productivity. We also find that transition pathways rely on different mechanisms to achieve their targets. The Delayed pathway relies on the combination of higher green capital investment and an increase in green capital productivity through R&D investment, while the Fast pathway requires substantial transfers of capital from the brown sector coupled with high abatement efforts.
   Alternative low emission transition pathways rely on different mechanisms to achieve their targets with full research and development investment in the green sector's productivity being a key factor in the green transition, suggests an analysis using a modified integrated assessment model.
C1 [Shayegh, Soheil; Reissl, Severin; Calcaterra, Matteo] Ctr Euromediterraneo Cambiamenti Climat, RFF CMCC European Inst Econ & Environm EIEE, Milan, Italy.
   [Roshan, Elnaz] Univ Hamburg, Res Unit Sustainabil & Global Change, Hamburg, Germany.
C3 University of Hamburg
RP Shayegh, S (corresponding author), Ctr Euromediterraneo Cambiamenti Climat, RFF CMCC European Inst Econ & Environm EIEE, Milan, Italy.
EM soheil.shayegh@cmcc.it
RI Shayegh, Soheil/I-4109-2014; Calcaterra, Matteo/NXX-8689-2025
OI Shayegh, Soheil/0000-0002-8960-8244; Calcaterra,
   Matteo/0000-0001-9465-2082; Reissl, Severin/0000-0002-5614-5669
FU European Union [101036458]; European Union's Horizon Europe researchand
   innovation program [101081604]; EC | Horizon 2020 Framework Programme
   (EU Framework Programme for Research and Innovation H2020) [101036458 -
   LOCALISED -]; European Union [101081604 - PRISMA]; European Union's
   Horizon Europe researchand innovation program
FX This project has received funding from the European Union's Horizon 2020
   research and innovation program under grant agreement No 101036458 -
   LOCALISED - Localised decarbonization pathways for citizens, local
   administrations and businesses to inform for mitigation and adaptation
   action. We acknowledge the full LOCALISED project team for their
   support. This project has also received funding from the European
   Union's Horizon Europe researchand innovation program under grant
   agreement No 101081604 - PRISMA - Net-Zero Pathway Research Through
   Integrated Assessment Model Advancements.
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TC 18
Z9 19
U1 7
U2 19
PU SPRINGERNATURE
PI LONDON
PA CAMPUS, 4 CRINAN ST, LONDON, N1 9XW, ENGLAND
EI 2662-4435
J9 COMMUN EARTH ENVIRON
JI Commun. Earth Environ.
PD NOV 29
PY 2023
VL 4
IS 1
AR 448
DI 10.1038/s43247-023-01109-5
PG 12
WC Environmental Sciences; Geosciences, Multidisciplinary; Meteorology &
   Atmospheric Sciences
WE Science Citation Index Expanded (SCI-EXPANDED)
SC Environmental Sciences & Ecology; Geology; Meteorology & Atmospheric
   Sciences
GA Z2WK3
UT WOS:001110728100002
OA Green Submitted, gold
DA 2026-06-14
ER

PT J
AU Smith, CJ
   Al Khourdajie, A
   Yang, P
   Folini, D
AF Smith, Christopher J.
   Al Khourdajie, Alaa
   Yang, Pu
   Folini, Doris
TI Climate uncertainty impacts on optimal mitigation pathways and social
   cost of carbon
SO ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS
LA English
DT Article
DE uncertainty; mitigation; economics; climate
ID IMPULSE-RESPONSE; MODEL; EMISSIONS; TEMPERATURE; FRAMEWORK; ENERGY
AB Emissions pathways used in climate policy analysis are often derived from integrated assessment models. However, such emissions pathways do not typically include climate feedbacks on socioeconomic systems and by extension do not consider climate uncertainty in their construction. We use a well-known cost-benefit integrated assessment model, the Dynamic Integrated Climate-Economy (DICE) model, with its climate component replaced by the Finite-amplitude Impulse Response (FaIR) model (v2.1). The climate uncertainty in FaIR is sampled with an ensemble that is consistent with historically observed climate and Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) assessed ranges of key climate variables such as equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS). By varying discounting assumptions, three scenarios are produced: a pathway similar to the 'optimal welfare' scenario of DICE that has similar warming outcomes to current policies, and pathways that limit warming to 'well-below' 2 degrees C and 1.5 degrees C with a short-term overshoot, aiming to meet Paris Agreement long-term temperature goals. Climate uncertainty alone is responsible for a factor of five variation (5%-95% range) in the social cost of carbon (SCC) in the 1.5 degrees C overshoot scenario, with the spread in SCC increasing in relative terms with increasing stringency of climate target. CO2 emissions trajectories resulting from the optimal level of emissions abatement in all pathways are also sensitive to climate uncertainty, with 2050 emissions ranging from -12 to +14 GtCO(2) yr(-1) in the 1.5 degrees C scenario. ECS and the strength of present-day aerosol effective radiative forcing are strong determinants of SCC and mid-century CO2 emissions. This shows that narrowing climate uncertainty leads to more refined estimates for the social cost of carbon and provides more certainty about the optimal rate of emissions abatement. Including climate and climate uncertainty in integrated assessment model derived emissions scenarios would address a key missing feedback in scenario construction.
C1 [Smith, Christopher J.] Univ Leeds, Priestley Int Ctr Climate, Woodhouse Lane, Leeds LS2 9JT, W Yorkshire, England.
   [Smith, Christopher J.; Al Khourdajie, Alaa] Int Inst Appl Syst Anal, Energy Climate & Environm Program, Schlosspl 1, A-2361 Laxenburg, Austria.
   [Al Khourdajie, Alaa] Imperial Coll, Ctr Environm Policy, South Kensington Campus, London SW7 2AZ, England.
   [Yang, Pu] Univ Oxford, Energy & Power Grp, Oxford OX2 0ES, England.
   [Yang, Pu] Univ Exeter, Exeter Sustainable Finance Ctr, Exeter EX4 4PU, England.
   [Folini, Doris] Swiss Fed Inst Technol, Inst Climate & Atmospher Sci, Univ Str 16, CH-8092 Zurich, Switzerland.
C3 University of Leeds; International Institute for Applied Systems
   Analysis (IIASA); Imperial College London; University of Oxford;
   University of Exeter; Swiss Federal Institutes of Technology Domain; ETH
   Zurich
RP Smith, CJ (corresponding author), Univ Leeds, Priestley Int Ctr Climate, Woodhouse Lane, Leeds LS2 9JT, W Yorkshire, England.; Smith, CJ (corresponding author), Int Inst Appl Syst Anal, Energy Climate & Environm Program, Schlosspl 1, A-2361 Laxenburg, Austria.
EM c.j.smith1@leeds.ac.uk
RI Al Khourdajie, Alaa/AEI-9327-2022; Yang, Pu/P-1074-2019; Smith,
   Christopher/HMV-0917-2023
OI Al Khourdajie, Alaa/0000-0003-1376-7529; Yang, Pu/0000-0002-9902-4322;
   Smith, Christopher/0000-0003-0599-4633
FU NERC-IIASA Collaborative Research Fellowship [NE/T009381/1]; Engineering
   and Physical Sciences Research Council, United Kingdom; Climate
   Compatible Growth programme - UK government; Swiss National Science
   Foundation (SNF); Horizon Europe project WorldTrans;  [EP/P022820/1]; 
   [101081661]
FX C J S was supported by a NERC-IIASA Collaborative Research Fellowship
   (NE/T009381/1) and Horizon Europe project WorldTrans (101081661). A A K
   was supported by the Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council,
   United Kingdom, grant/award no. EP/P022820/1. P Y was supported by the
   Climate Compatible Growth programme, which is funded by UK aid from the
   UK government. The views expressed herein do not necessarily reflect the
   UK government's official policies. D F was supported by the Swiss
   National Science Foundation (SNF) under project ID Can Economic Policy
   Mitigate Climate-Change?'. For the purpose of open access, the author
   has applied a Creative Commons Attribution (CC BY) license to any Author
   Accepted Manuscript version arising. The authors declare no conflicts of
   interest.
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U2 34
PU IOP Publishing Ltd
PI Bristol
PA No.2 The Distillery, Glassfields, Avon Street, Bristol, ENGLAND
SN 1748-9326
J9 ENVIRON RES LETT
JI Environ. Res. Lett.
PD SEP 1
PY 2023
VL 18
IS 9
AR 094024
DI 10.1088/1748-9326/acedc6
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WC Environmental Sciences; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
WE Science Citation Index Expanded (SCI-EXPANDED)
SC Environmental Sciences & Ecology; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
GA P5GH3
UT WOS:001050953500001
OA Green Submitted, gold
DA 2026-06-14
ER

PT J
AU Liao, H
   Ye, HY
AF Liao, Hua
   Ye, Huiying
TI Endogenous economic structure, climate change, and the optimal abatement
   path
SO STRUCTURAL CHANGE AND ECONOMIC DYNAMICS
LA English
DT Article
DE Economic structure; Dynamic intertemporal optimization; Integrated
   assessment modelling; Abatement pathway; Investment rate
ID GROWTH; MODEL; INTENSITY
AB This paper endogenizes economic structure in Nordhaus's standard DICE model, and builds a dynamic inter-temporal optimization model to determine long-term CO2 mitigation policy. Two basic macroeconomic sectors that vary in carbon intensity and suffer different damage from climate change are incorporated: one producing consumer goods, and another producing capital goods. The model finds a bidirectional interaction between climate change and economic structure. Climate change is able to reverse structure transition by decreasing investment rate. Meanwhile, economic structure evolution affects the choice of policies for managing climate change. Compared to the standard DICE model, our results show that we are likely to face a more severe climate situation; therefore, deeper mitigation efforts are called for, which requires investing an average of 3.2% of GDP per year for 2 degrees C warming goal. Mitigation efforts can become more effective for the economy as economic structure evolves and evokes future investment response, which will be determined not only by the normal intertemporal trade-off between present-day and future consumption, but also by another trade-off between high and low carbon-intensive goods.
C1 [Liao, Hua; Ye, Huiying] Beijing Inst Technol, Ctr Energy & Environm Policy Res, Beijing 100081, Peoples R China.
   [Liao, Hua; Ye, Huiying] Beijing Inst Technol, Sch Management & Econ, Beijing 100081, Peoples R China.
   [Liao, Hua] Beijing Inst Technol BIT, Ctr Energy & Environm Policy Res CEEP, Beijing 100081, Peoples R China.
C3 Beijing Institute of Technology; Beijing Institute of Technology
RP Liao, H (corresponding author), Beijing Inst Technol BIT, Ctr Energy & Environm Policy Res CEEP, Beijing 100081, Peoples R China.
EM hliao@bit.edu.cn
RI Liao, Hua/C-4931-2012
OI Liao, Hua/0000-0002-4835-927X
FU National Science Fund for Distinguished Young Scholars [71925008];
   National Natural Science Foundation of China [72293603]; BIT Research
   and Innovation Promoting Project [2022YCXY039]
FX This work was supported by the National Science Fund for Distinguished
   Young Scholars (71925008), National Natural Science Foundation of China
   (72293603) and the BIT Research and Innovation Promoting Project
   (2022YCXY039). The authors appreciate the constructive suggestions from
   the anonymous reviewers and the insightful comments from the 2021
   INFORMS Annual Meeting. We thank participants at seminars at the Beijing
   Institute of Technology for their comments. The views expressed in this
   paper are solely the authors' own and do not necessarily reflect the
   views of the supporting agencies and authors' affiliations. The authors
   alone are responsible for any remaining deficiencies.
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   Standardi, Gabriele
   van Vuuren, Detlef
TI New damage curves and multimodel analysis suggest lower optimal
   temperature
SO NATURE CLIMATE CHANGE
LA English
DT Article
ID CLIMATE-CHANGE; CARBON EMISSIONS; SOCIAL COST; MODEL; UNCERTAINTY;
   TARGETS
AB Cost-benefit analysis of climate change depends heavily on the damage function used, and it is difficult to get credible information. Multimodel comparison with newly developed bottom-up damage functions indicates the optimal temperature could be much lower than previously estimated.
   Economic analyses of global climate change have been criticized for their poor representation of climate change damages. Here we develop and apply aggregate damage functions in three economic Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs) with different degrees of complexity. The damage functions encompass a wide but still incomplete set of climate change impacts based on physical impact models. We show that with medium estimates for damage functions, global damages are in the range of 10% to 12% of GDP by 2100 in a baseline scenario with 3 degrees C temperature change, and about 2% in a well-below 2 degrees C scenario. These damages are much higher than previous estimates in benefit-cost studies, resulting in optimal temperatures below 2 degrees C with central estimates of damages and discount rates. Moreover, we find a benefit-cost ratio of 1.5 to 3.9, even without considering damages that could not be accounted for, such as biodiversity losses, health and tipping points.
C1 [van der Wijst, Kaj-Ivar; Hof, Andries; van Vuuren, Detlef] PBL Netherlands Environm Assessment Agcy, The Hague, Netherlands.
   [van der Wijst, Kaj-Ivar; Hof, Andries; van Vuuren, Detlef] Univ Utrecht, Copernicus Inst Sustainable Dev, Utrecht, Netherlands.
   [Bosello, Francesco; Dasgupta, Shouro; Drouet, Laurent; Emmerling, Johannes; Parrado, Ramiro; Standardi, Gabriele] Fdn Ctr Euro Mediterraneo Cambiamenti Climat, RFF CMCC European Inst Econ & Environm EIEE, Milan, Italy.
   [Bosello, Francesco; Dasgupta, Shouro; Parrado, Ramiro; Standardi, Gabriele] Univ Ca Foscari, CMCC Ca Foscari Ctr Euro Mediterraneo Cambiamenti, Venice, Italy.
   [Bosello, Francesco] Ca Foscari Univ Venice, Dept Environm Sci Informat & Stat, Venice, Italy.
   [Dasgupta, Shouro] London Sch Econ & Polit Sci LSE, Grantham Res Inst Climate Change & Environm, London, England.
   [Leimbach, Marian; Piontek, Franziska] Potsdam Inst Climate Impact Res, Potsdam, Germany.
   [Leimbach, Marian; Piontek, Franziska] Leibniz Assoc, Potsdam, Germany.
C3 Utrecht University; Universita Ca Foscari Venezia; Universita Ca Foscari
   Venezia; University of London; London School Economics & Political
   Science; Potsdam Institut fur Klimafolgenforschung
RP van der Wijst, KI (corresponding author), PBL Netherlands Environm Assessment Agcy, The Hague, Netherlands.; van der Wijst, KI (corresponding author), Univ Utrecht, Copernicus Inst Sustainable Dev, Utrecht, Netherlands.
EM k.vanderwijst@uu.nl
RI ; van Vuuren, Detlef/A-4764-2009; Dasgupta, Shouro/ABE-7831-2020; van
   der Wijst, Kaj-Ivar/AAH-1418-2021; Drouet, Laurent/J-9894-2019;
   EMMERLING, Johannes/K-8283-2019; Hof, Andries/AFB-4199-2022;
   /ABE-6686-2020
OI STANDARDI, Gabriele/0000-0002-4989-2201; van Vuuren,
   Detlef/0000-0003-0398-2831; Leimbach, Marian/0000-0002-3932-4702;
   Dasgupta, Shouro/0000-0003-4080-8066; van der Wijst,
   Kaj-Ivar/0000-0002-9588-7059; Drouet, Laurent/0000-0002-4087-7662;
   EMMERLING, Johannes/0000-0003-0916-9913; Hof,
   Andries/0000-0002-7568-5038; Parrado, Ramiro/0000-0002-0951-1013; 
FU European Union's Horizon 2020 Framework Programme for Research and
   Innovation [776479]; European Commission [821124]; H2020 Societal
   Challenges Programme [776479] Funding Source: H2020 Societal Challenges
   Programme
FX The research presented in this paper and all authors benefitted from
   funding under the European Union's Horizon 2020 Framework Programme for
   Research and Innovation under Grant Agreement No. 776479 for the project
   CO-designing the Assessment of Climate Change costs (COACCH,
   https://www.coacch.eu) and from the European Commission Horizon 2020
   Programme H2020/2019-2023 under Grant Agreement No. 821124 (NAVIGATE).
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NR 63
TC 38
Z9 44
U1 3
U2 47
PU NATURE PORTFOLIO
PI BERLIN
PA HEIDELBERGER PLATZ 3, BERLIN, 14197, GERMANY
SN 1758-678X
EI 1758-6798
J9 NAT CLIM CHANGE
JI Nat. Clim. Chang.
PD MAY
PY 2023
VL 13
IS 5
BP 434
EP +
DI 10.1038/s41558-023-01636-1
EA MAR 2023
PG 12
WC Environmental Sciences; Environmental Studies; Meteorology & Atmospheric
   Sciences
WE Science Citation Index Expanded (SCI-EXPANDED); Social Science Citation Index (SSCI)
SC Environmental Sciences & Ecology; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
GA AR5Y5
UT WOS:000955633200011
OA Green Submitted
DA 2026-06-14
ER

PT J
AU Wu, CG
   Dong, H
   Ou, JJ
   Li, D
   Song, YY
   Luo, CL
   Yu, ZX
   Liang, BH
   Yu, YX
   Qin, PZ
   Qi, ZH
   Cai, ZW
AF Wu, Chenguang
   Dong, Hang
   Ou, Jiajun
   Li, Dan
   Song, Yuanyuan
   Luo, Chunliang
   Yu, Zixun
   Liang, Boheng
   Yu, Yingxin
   Qin, Pengzhe
   Qi, Zenghua
   Cai, Zongwei
TI Climate change and population aging may impact the benefits of improved
   air quality on cardiovascular mortality in Guangzhou: epidemiological
   evidence and policy implications
SO ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCE-ADVANCES
LA English
DT Article
ID PARTICULATE MATTER; TIME-SERIES; ATMOSPHERIC-PRESSURE; PM2.5 POLLUTION;
   CHINA; RISKS
AB Air pollution is the primary environmental risk factor contributing to global cardiovascular mortality. In China, a series of air pollution control policies launched in 2013 have led to substantial improvements in air quality over the past 10 years. However, the health benefits of improved air quality on cardiovascular mortality remain unclear under the combined effects of climate change and population aging. In this study, we investigated dynamic changes in the contribution of air pollution, meteorological conditions and aging to cardiovascular mortality over 9 years (2013-2021) in Guangzhou, China using generalized additive models and machine learning analysis. Although the air quality in Guangzhou has continuously improved since 2013, cardiovascular mortality has increased since 2019 and approached 2013 levels in 2021. Use of the SHapley Additive exPlanation (SHAP) approach to interpret the model outputs revealed that meteorological factors have gradually replaced air pollutants as the main environmental factors affecting cardiovascular mortality since 2016. Concurrently, the impact of population aging on cardiovascular mortality has increased year-on-year. Our results provide important insights into improved air quality related health benefits that could aid development of an early warning service system and national environmental and public health policy related to climate change and population aging.
   Dynamic changes in the contribution of air pollution, meteorological conditions and aging to cardiovascular mortality.
C1 [Wu, Chenguang; Ou, Jiajun; Li, Dan; Yu, Zixun; Yu, Yingxin; Qi, Zenghua] Guangdong Univ Technol, Inst Environm Hlth & Pollut Control, Sch Environm Sci & Engn, Guangdong Hong Kong Macao Joint Lab Contaminants E, Rm 510,Engn Facil Bldg 3, Hong Kong 510006, Guangdong, Peoples R China.
   [Dong, Hang; Liang, Boheng; Qin, Pengzhe] Guangzhou Ctr Dis Control & Prevent, Chron Noncommunicable Dis Prevent & Control Dept, 1 Qide Rd, Guangzhou 510403, Peoples R China.
   [Song, Yuanyuan; Cai, Zongwei] Hong Kong Baptist Univ, Dept Chem, State Key Lab Environm & Biol Anal, Hong Kong, Peoples R China.
   [Luo, Chunliang] Qijiang Dist Ctr Dis Control & Prevent, Chongqing 400800, Peoples R China.
C3 Guangdong University of Technology; Hong Kong Baptist University
RP Qi, ZH (corresponding author), Guangdong Univ Technol, Inst Environm Hlth & Pollut Control, Sch Environm Sci & Engn, Guangdong Hong Kong Macao Joint Lab Contaminants E, Rm 510,Engn Facil Bldg 3, Hong Kong 510006, Guangdong, Peoples R China.; Qin, PZ (corresponding author), Guangzhou Ctr Dis Control & Prevent, Chron Noncommunicable Dis Prevent & Control Dept, 1 Qide Rd, Guangzhou 510403, Peoples R China.
EM 396508@qq.com; zenghuaqi@gdut.edu.cn
RI Cai, Zongwei/ABD-4001-2020; LI, Dan/O-5900-2014; Ou,
   Jiajun/IZE-4588-2023; SONG, YUANYUAN/AAA-9816-2020; Qi,
   Zenghua/AFI-3792-2022; yu, yingxin/GYU-0749-2022
OI Cai, Zongwei/0000-0002-8724-7684; 
FU National Key Research and Development Program of China [12303320];
   General Research Fund from the Hong Kong Research Grants Council
   [pdjh2023a0162]; Special Funds for the Cultivation of Guangdong College
   Students' Scientific and Technological Innovation, "Climbing Program"
   Special Funds [2019YFC1804604]; National Key Research and Development
   Project [202201011617]; Guangzhou Science and Technology Planning
   Project [202206010190]; Key R&D Plans of Guangzhou Science and
   Technology
FX This work was supported by the General Research Fund from the Hong Kong
   Research Grants Council (12303320), Special Funds for the Cultivation of
   Guangdong College Students' Scientific and Technological Innovation,
   "Climbing Program" Special Funds (pdjh2023a0162), the National Key
   Research and Development Project (2019YFC1804604), Guangzhou Science and
   Technology Planning Project (202201011617), Key R&D Plans of Guangzhou
   Science and Technology (202206010190).
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NR 60
TC 0
Z9 0
U1 4
U2 19
PU ROYAL SOC CHEMISTRY
PI CAMBRIDGE
PA THOMAS GRAHAM HOUSE, SCIENCE PARK, MILTON RD, CAMBRIDGE CB4 0WF, CAMBS,
   ENGLAND
EI 2754-7000
J9 ENVIRON SCI-ADV
JI Environ. Sci.-Adv.
PD FEB 6
PY 2023
VL 2
IS 2
BP 215
EP 226
DI 10.1039/d2va00303a
PG 12
WC Engineering, Environmental; Environmental Sciences
WE Emerging Sources Citation Index (ESCI)
SC Engineering; Environmental Sciences & Ecology
GA Y8FY8
UT WOS:001107575200001
OA gold
DA 2026-06-14
ER

PT J
AU Reis, LA
   Tavoni, M
AF Reis, Lara Aleluia
   Tavoni, Massimo
TI Glasgow to Paris-The impact of the Glasgow commitments for the Paris
   climate agreement
SO ISCIENCE
LA English
DT Article
ID AIR-QUALITY; PLEDGES; MODELS
AB In the Glasgow COP26, several major emitters have announced new climate neutrality commitments. Others revised their nationally determined contributions (NDC). The climate, energy, and economic repercussion of these revised pledges is still unclear. Here, using a detailed-process integrated assessment model (WITCH), we analyze the impact of the Glasgow net-zero commitments and compare it to scenarios consistent with the Paris' agreement. We find that-if fully implemented-the Glasgow strategies would help close the gap to 2 degrees C , covering more than 80% of the world's needed emission reductions by 2070. The pledged commitments would exceed 1.5 degrees C, with a temperature increase (50% likelihood) of 1.6 degrees C-1.8 degrees C by the end of the century. We find that the Glasgow net-zero pledges would require substantial increases in investment in electric transportation and power generation in all major economies. Compared to a scenario with uniform carbon taxation, Glasgow differentiated pledges' do not significantly increase global policy costs, are more fair, and save more lives by promoting cleaner air. However, they delay coal phase-out and increase the need for negative emission technologies.
C1 [Reis, Lara Aleluia; Tavoni, Massimo] Ctr Euro Mediterraneo Cambiamenti Climat CMCC, RFF CMCC European Inst Econ & Environm EIEE, Milan, Italy.
   [Tavoni, Massimo] Politecn Milan, Dept Management Econ & Ind Engn, Milan, Italy.
C3 Centro Euro-Mediterraneo sui Cambiamenti Climatici (CMCC); Polytechnic
   University of Milan
RP Reis, LA (corresponding author), Ctr Euro Mediterraneo Cambiamenti Climat CMCC, RFF CMCC European Inst Econ & Environm EIEE, Milan, Italy.
EM lara.aleluia@eiee.org
RI Aleluia Reis, Lara/AFV-8907-2022
OI Aleluia Reis, Lara/0000-0002-6676-7007
FU European Union [821471, 101056873]; RFF-RITE project "ADVANCING GLOBAL
   EFFORTS TO ADDRESS CLIMATE CHANGE RISKS"; Horizon Europe - Pillar II
   [101056873] Funding Source: Horizon Europe - Pillar II
FX This research received funding from the European Union's Horizon 2020
   research and innovation program under grant agreement no. 821471
   (ENGAGE) ; from the European Union's Horizon Europe research and
   innovation programme under grant agreement no. 101056873 (ELEVATE) ; and
   from the RFF-RITE project "ADVANCING GLOBAL EFFORTS TO ADDRESS CLIMATE
   CHANGE RISKS".
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TC 15
Z9 15
U1 1
U2 9
PU CELL PRESS
PI CAMBRIDGE
PA 50 HAMPSHIRE ST, FLOOR 5, CAMBRIDGE, MA 02139 USA
EI 2589-0042
J9 ISCIENCE
JI iScience
PD FEB 17
PY 2023
VL 26
IS 2
AR 105933
DI 10.1016/j.isci.2023.105933
EA JAN 2023
PG 25
WC Multidisciplinary Sciences
WE Science Citation Index Expanded (SCI-EXPANDED)
SC Science & Technology - Other Topics
GA H5PT7
UT WOS:000996487600001
PM 36718361
OA Green Submitted, gold
DA 2026-06-14
ER

PT J
AU Carlino, A
   Tavoni, M
   Castelletti, A
AF Carlino, Angelo
   Tavoni, Massimo
   Castelletti, Andrea
TI Self-Adaptive Multi-Objective Climate Policies Align Mitigation and
   Adaptation Strategies
SO EARTHS FUTURE
LA English
DT Article
DE integrated assessment models; decision-making under deep uncertainty;
   climate economics; climate change mitigation; climate change adaptation;
   multi-objective optimization
ID STOCHASTIC INTEGRATED ASSESSMENT; SOCIAL COST; TIPPING POINTS;
   ASSESSMENT MODELS; ECONOMIC DAMAGES; IMPULSE-RESPONSE; UNCERTAINTY;
   TEMPERATURE; CARBON; IMPACTS
AB Intensifying climate change impacts can divert the economic resources away from emission reduction toward adaptation to reduce rising damages, jeopardizing temperature stabilization within safe levels. Indeed, the traditional static welfare-maximizing climate policy design leads to a conflict between mitigation and adaptation, invalidating the recently established consistency of cost-benefit analysis with the Paris Agreement's targets. Here, we show that this tension can be resolved by integrating multi-objective optimization and feedback control in the Dynamic Integrated Climate Economy model to design self-adaptive climate policies trading off welfare maximization with the Paris Agreement compliance. These policies allow adjusting against uncertainty as information on the socio-climatic system accumulates, thus representing the policy-making process more realistically. We show that, the costs being the same as in traditional methods, warming above 2 degrees C and the probability of overshooting can be drastically reduced, emphasizing the need for integrating adaptation and mitigation strategies and the value of embracing a self-adaptive, multi-objective perspective.
C1 [Carlino, Angelo; Castelletti, Andrea] Politecn Milan, Dept Elect Informat & Bioengn, Milan, Italy.
   [Tavoni, Massimo] Politecn Milan, Dept Management Econ & Ind Engn, Milan, Italy.
   [Tavoni, Massimo; Castelletti, Andrea] Ctr Euro Mediterraneo Cambiamenti Climat, RFF CMCC European Inst Econ & Environm EIEE, Milan, Italy.
C3 Polytechnic University of Milan; Polytechnic University of Milan
RP Castelletti, A (corresponding author), Politecn Milan, Dept Elect Informat & Bioengn, Milan, Italy.; Castelletti, A (corresponding author), Ctr Euro Mediterraneo Cambiamenti Climat, RFF CMCC European Inst Econ & Environm EIEE, Milan, Italy.
EM andrea.castelletti@polimi.it
RI Castelletti, Andrea/AAG-7111-2020
OI Castelletti, Andrea/0000-0002-7923-1498; tavoni,
   massimo/0000-0001-5069-4707; Carlino, Angelo/0000-0002-8403-9070
FU European Union [821124]
FX The research leading to these results received funding from the European
   Union's Horizon 2020 research and innovation program under Grant 821124
   (NAVIGATE).
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NR 110
TC 2
Z9 2
U1 1
U2 25
PU AMER GEOPHYSICAL UNION
PI WASHINGTON
PA 2000 FLORIDA AVE NW, WASHINGTON, DC 20009 USA
EI 2328-4277
J9 EARTHS FUTURE
JI Earth Future
PD OCT
PY 2022
VL 10
IS 10
AR e2022EF002767
DI 10.1029/2022EF002767
PG 20
WC Environmental Sciences; Geosciences, Multidisciplinary; Meteorology &
   Atmospheric Sciences
WE Science Citation Index Expanded (SCI-EXPANDED)
SC Environmental Sciences & Ecology; Geology; Meteorology & Atmospheric
   Sciences
GA 5N0UP
UT WOS:000871506600001
OA Green Submitted, gold
DA 2026-06-14
ER

PT J
AU Malafry, L
   Brinca, P
AF Malafry, Laurence
   Brinca, Pedro
TI Climate policy in an unequal world: Assessing the cost of risk on
   vulnerable households
SO ECOLOGICAL ECONOMICS
LA English
DT Article
DE Climate change; Inequality; Risk; Optimal carbon policy
ID INTEGRATED ASSESSMENT; CARBON TAX; MITIGATION; ECONOMICS; INCOME
AB Policy makers concerned with setting optimal values for carbon instruments to address climate change externalities often employ integrated assessment models (IAMs). In the past, these tools have relied on representative agent assumptions or other restrictive behaviour and welfare aggregations. However, there is an important trend in the economics of climate change towards including a greater degree of heterogeneity. In the face of global inequality and significant vulnerability of asset poor households, we relax the complete markets assumption and introduce a realistic degree of global household inequality. In contrast to the representative agent framework, we find that a household's position on the global wealth distribution predicts the identity of their most-preferred carbon price. Specifically, poor agents prefer strong public action against climate change to mitigate the risk for which they are implicitly more vulnerable. We find that the carbon tax fills the role of insurance, reducing the volatility of future welfare. It is this role that drives the wedge between rich and poor households' policy preferences, even in the absence of redistribution. Taking into account the risk channel, we derive an optimal tax value four times larger than standard estimates from representative agent models.
C1 [Malafry, Laurence] Univ Oslo, Oslo, Norway.
   [Brinca, Pedro] Univ Nova Lisboa, Nova Sch Business & Econ, Campus Carcavelos, P-2775405 Carcavelos, Portugal.
C3 University of Oslo; Universidade Nova de Lisboa
RP Malafry, L (corresponding author), Univ Oslo, Oslo, Norway.
EM laurence.malafry@econ.uio.no
OI Malafry, Laurence/0000-0002-2858-5149; Brinca, Pedro/0000-0002-3399-6081
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NR 45
TC 6
Z9 11
U1 0
U2 37
PU ELSEVIER
PI AMSTERDAM
PA RADARWEG 29, 1043 NX AMSTERDAM, NETHERLANDS
SN 0921-8009
EI 1873-6106
J9 ECOL ECON
JI Ecol. Econ.
PD APR
PY 2022
VL 194
AR 107309
DI 10.1016/j.ecolecon.2021.107309
EA JAN 2022
PG 12
WC Ecology; Economics; Environmental Sciences; Environmental Studies
WE Science Citation Index Expanded (SCI-EXPANDED); Social Science Citation Index (SSCI)
SC Environmental Sciences & Ecology; Business & Economics
GA 0V0SP
UT WOS:000788056700018
OA Green Submitted
DA 2026-06-14
ER

PT J
AU Reis, LA
   Drouet, L
   Tavoni, M
AF Reis, Lara Aleluia
   Drouet, Laurent
   Tavoni, Massimo
TI Internalising health-economic impacts of air pollution into climate
   policy: a global modelling study
SO LANCET PLANETARY HEALTH
LA English
DT Article
ID CO-BENEFITS; QUALITY; EMISSIONS
AB Background Climate change and air pollution are two major societal problems. Their complex interplay calls for an advanced evaluation framework that can support decision making. Previous assessments have looked at the cobenefits of climate policies for air pollution, but few have optimised air pollution benefits. In our study, we lay out a modelling framework that internalises air pollution's economic impacts on human mortality, while considering climate constraints and aerosol feedback.
   Methods We developed a modelling framework based on an integrated assessment model (World Induced Technical Change Hybrid [WITCH]) designed to assess optimal climate change mitigation policies. We included structural and end-of-pipe measures in a detailed process integrated assessment model, that is hard-linked to air pollution and climate models. We analysed a large set of baseline scenarios, including five shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs). SSP scenarios were also tested with three different levels of value per statistical life, and were combined with the Paris Agreement temperature targets (TM), focusing on the 2 degrees C and 1.5 degrees C TTs by the end of the century.
   Findings We found that, in the baseline scenarios, where no policies are applied, the number of annual premature deaths grew before declining slightly to 4.45 (range 3.86-6.11) million annual premature deaths by 2050. Reaching the Paris Agreement TT decreases mortality by approximately 0.47 million premature deaths by 2050 (up to 1.28 million premature deaths in SSP3-1.5 degrees C) with respect to the baseline. We showed that welfare-maximising policies accounting for air pollution benefits reduces premature mortality by 1.62 million deaths annually. This is three times greater than the co-benefits of climate policies. China is the region where most of the avoided mortality is possible, whereas the reforming economies (ie, non-EU eastern European countries, including Russia) region has the greatest welfare benefits. We find that global and regional welfare increases when air pollution impacts are internalised, with no negative repercussions on global inequality.
   Interpretation Air pollution control strategies are found to be an important complement to structural emission reductions. Accounting for air pollution impacts reduces climate mitigation costs and inequality and increases global and regional welfare. Results are robust to a broad set of scenarios and assumptions, including debated normative choices on how to value improved health. Copyright (C) 2022 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd.
C1 [Reis, Lara Aleluia; Drouet, Laurent; Tavoni, Massimo] RFF CMCC European Inst Econ & Environm EIEE, Ctr Euromediterraneo Cambiamenti Climat CMCC, I-20144 Milan, Italy.
   [Tavoni, Massimo] Politecn Milan, Dept Management Econ & Ind Engn, Milan, Italy.
C3 Centro Euro-Mediterraneo sui Cambiamenti Climatici (CMCC); Polytechnic
   University of Milan
RP Reis, LA (corresponding author), RFF CMCC European Inst Econ & Environm EIEE, Ctr Euromediterraneo Cambiamenti Climat CMCC, I-20144 Milan, Italy.
EM lara.aleluia@eiee.org
RI Drouet, Laurent/J-9894-2019; Aleluia Reis, Lara/AFV-8907-2022
OI Drouet, Laurent/0000-0002-4087-7662; 
FU EU Commission project: INNOPATHS; EU Commission project: NAVIGATE; EU
   Commission project: ENGAGE; EU Commission project: COMMIT
FX EU Commission projects: INNOPATHS, NAVIGATE, ENGAGE, and COMMIT.
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NR 31
TC 62
Z9 73
U1 6
U2 67
PU ELSEVIER SCI LTD
PI London
PA 125 London Wall, London, ENGLAND
EI 2542-5196
J9 LANCET PLANET HEALTH
JI Lancet Planet. Health
PD JAN
PY 2022
VL 6
IS 1
BP E40
EP E48
DI 10.1016/S2542-5196(21)00259-X
PG 9
WC Environmental Sciences; Public, Environmental & Occupational Health
WE Science Citation Index Expanded (SCI-EXPANDED); Social Science Citation Index (SSCI)
SC Environmental Sciences & Ecology; Public, Environmental & Occupational
   Health
GA YJ5TY
UT WOS:000744596400009
PM 34998459
OA Green Submitted, gold
DA 2026-06-14
ER

PT J
AU Schultes, A
   Piontek, F
   Soergel, B
   Rogelj, J
   Baumstark, L
   Kriegler, E
   Edenhofer, O
   Luderer, G
AF Schultes, Anselm
   Piontek, Franziska
   Soergel, Bjoern
   Rogelj, Joeri
   Baumstark, Lavinia
   Kriegler, Elmar
   Edenhofer, Ottmar
   Luderer, Gunnar
TI Economic damages from on-going climate change imply deeper near-term
   emission cuts
SO ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS
LA English
DT Article
DE climate change; climate mitigation; climate impacts; integrated
   assessment
ID INTEGRATED ASSESSMENT MODELS; CUMULATIVE CARBON EMISSIONS; SOCIAL COST;
   TIPPING POINTS; TEMPERATURE; GROWTH; POLICY; SCENARIOS; WEATHER; TARGETS
AB Pathways toward limiting global warming to well below 2 C-circle, as used by the IPCC in the Fifth Assessment Report, do not consider the climate impacts already occurring below 2 C-circle. Here we show that accounting for such damages significantly increases the near-term ambition of transformation pathways. We use econometric estimates of climate damages on GDP growth and explicitly model the uncertainty in the persistence time of damages. The Integrated Assessment Model we use includes the climate system and mitigation technology detail required to derive near-term policies. We find an optimal carbon price of $115 per tonne of CO2 in 2030. The long-term persistence of damages, while highly uncertain, is a main driver of the near-term carbon price. Accounting for damages on economic growth increases the gap between the currently pledged nationally determined contributions and the welfare-optimal 2030 emissions by two thirds, compared to pathways considering the 2 C-circle limit only.
C1 [Schultes, Anselm; Piontek, Franziska; Soergel, Bjoern; Baumstark, Lavinia; Kriegler, Elmar; Edenhofer, Ottmar; Luderer, Gunnar] Potsdam Inst Climate Impact Res PIK, POB 60 12 03, D-14412 Potsdam, Germany.
   [Schultes, Anselm; Piontek, Franziska; Soergel, Bjoern; Baumstark, Lavinia; Kriegler, Elmar; Edenhofer, Ottmar; Luderer, Gunnar] Leibniz Assoc, POB 60 12 03, D-14412 Potsdam, Germany.
   [Rogelj, Joeri] Int Inst Appl Syst Anal IIASA, Energy Climate & Environm Programme, A-2361 Laxenburg, Austria.
   [Rogelj, Joeri] Imperial Coll London, Ctr Environm Policy, Grantham Inst Climate Change & Environm, London SW7 2AZ, England.
   [Edenhofer, Ottmar] Mercator Res Inst Global Commons & Climate Change, Torgauer Str 12-15, D-10829 Berlin, Germany.
   [Edenhofer, Ottmar] Tech Univ Berlin, Secretariat EB 4-1,Str 17,Juni 145, D-10623 Berlin, Germany.
   [Kriegler, Elmar] Univ Potsdam, Fac Econ & Social Sci, August Bebel Str 89, D-14482 Potsdam, Germany.
   [Luderer, Gunnar] Tech Univ Berlin, Global Energy Syst Anal, Berlin, Germany.
C3 Potsdam Institut fur Klimafolgenforschung; International Institute for
   Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA); Imperial College London; Technical
   University of Berlin; University of Potsdam; Technical University of
   Berlin
RP Schultes, A (corresponding author), Potsdam Inst Climate Impact Res PIK, POB 60 12 03, D-14412 Potsdam, Germany.; Schultes, A (corresponding author), Leibniz Assoc, POB 60 12 03, D-14412 Potsdam, Germany.
EM a.schultes@gmail.com
RI ; Rogelj, Joeri/I-7108-2012; Luderer, Gunnar/G-2967-2012; Edenhofer,
   Ottmar/E-1886-2013; Kriegler, Elmar/I-3048-2016
OI Soergel, Bjoern/0000-0002-2630-7081; Rogelj, Joeri/0000-0003-2056-9061;
   Bautark, Lavinia/0000-0002-6979-6671; Luderer,
   Gunnar/0000-0002-9057-6155; Edenhofer, Ottmar/0000-0001-6029-5208; 
FU Leibniz Gemeinschaft through the ENGAGE project; CHIPS project, part of
   AXIS; ERA-NET initiated by JPI Climate; FORMAS; DLR/BMBF [01LS1904A];
   AEI; ANR; European Union [776608]; H2020 Societal Challenges Programme
   [776608] Funding Source: H2020 Societal Challenges Programme
FX A S and F P received funding from the Leibniz Gemeinschaft through the
   ENGAGE project. F P also acknowledges funding through the CHIPS project,
   part of AXIS, an ERA-NET initiated by JPI Climate, funded by FORMAS
   (SE), DLR/BMBF (DE, Grant No. 01LS1904A), AEI (ES) and ANR (FR) with
   cofunding by the European Union (Grant No. 776608). A S thanks Anastasia
   Linnik for comments that helped improve the manuscript.
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NR 69
TC 16
Z9 16
U1 2
U2 26
PU IOP Publishing Ltd
PI Bristol
PA No.2 The Distillery, Glassfields, Avon Street, Bristol, ENGLAND
SN 1748-9326
J9 ENVIRON RES LETT
JI Environ. Res. Lett.
PD OCT
PY 2021
VL 16
IS 10
AR 104053
DI 10.1088/1748-9326/ac27ce
PG 10
WC Environmental Sciences; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
WE Science Citation Index Expanded (SCI-EXPANDED); Social Science Citation Index (SSCI)
SC Environmental Sciences & Ecology; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
GA WK8QP
UT WOS:000709986000001
OA Green Submitted, gold
DA 2026-06-14
ER

PT J
AU Kotlikoff, L
   Kubler, F
   Polbin, A
   Scheidegger, S
AF Kotlikoff, Laurence
   Kubler, Felix
   Polbin, Andrey
   Scheidegger, Simon
TI Pareto-improving carbon-risk taxation
SO ECONOMIC POLICY
LA English
DT Article
ID OVERLAPPING GENERATIONS MODEL; SOCIAL-SECURITY; CLIMATE; UNCERTAINTY;
   SENSITIVITY; ECONOMICS; POLICY; GROWTH; TAXES; COST
AB Anthropogenic climate change produces two conceptually distinct negative economic externalities. The first is an expected path of climate damage. The second, the focus of this paper, is an expected path of economic risk. To isolate the climate-risk problem, we consider three mean-zero, symmetric shocks in our 12-period, overlapping generations model. These shocks impact dirty energy usage (carbon emissions), the relationship between carbon concentration and temperature and the connection between temperature and damages. By construction, our model exhibits a de minimis climate problem absent its shocks. However, due to non-linearities, symmetric shocks deliver negatively skewed impacts, including the potential for climate disasters. As we show, Pareto-improving carbon taxation can dramatically lower climate risk, in general, and disaster risk, in particular. The associated climate-risk tax, which is focused exclusively on limiting climate risk, can be as large as, or larger than, the carbon average-damage tax, which is focused exclusively on limiting average damage.
C1 [Kotlikoff, Laurence] Boston Univ, Dept Econ, Boston, MA 02215 USA.
   Natl Bur Econ Res, Cambridge, MA USA.
   Gaidar Inst, Moscow, Russia.
   Univ Zurich, Inst Banking & Finance, Zurich, Switzerland.
   Swiss Finance Inst, Zurich, Switzerland.
   Russian Presidential Acad Natl Econ, Moscow, Russia.
   Univ Lausanne, Dept Finance, Lausanne, Switzerland.
C3 Boston University; National Bureau of Economic Research; University of
   Zurich; Swiss Finance Institute (SFI); Russian Presidential Academy of
   National Economy & Public Administration; University of Lausanne
RP Kotlikoff, L (corresponding author), Boston Univ, Dept Econ, Boston, MA 02215 USA.
OI Kubler, Felix/0000-0002-9404-878X
FU University of Zurich; Swiss National Science Foundation (SNF); Swiss
   Platform for Advanced Scientific Computing (PASC); Swiss National
   Supercomputing Center (CSCS) [995]; MIT Sloan School of Management;
   Cowles Foundation at Yale University; Gaidar Institute; Boston
   University; University of Lausanne
FX The authors thank Doris Folini for highly valuable input. They also
   thank Bartosz Ma~ckowiak and Christian Bayer for discussing our work at
   the 72nd Economic Policy Panel meeting, seminar participants at the BIS,
   the University of Lausanne and three anonymous referees for many helpful
   comments. Finally, they thank the Gaidar Institute, Boston University,
   the University of Lausanne, the University of Zurich and the Swiss
   National Science Foundation (SNF), under project ID `Can Economic Policy
   Mitigate Climate-Change?', and the Swiss Platform for Advanced
   Scientific Computing (PASC), under project ID `Computing Equilibria in
   Heterogeneous Agent Macro Models on Contemporary HPC Platforms', for
   research support and the Swiss National Supercomputing Center (CSCS)
   under project ID 995. S.S. gratefully acknowledges support from the MIT
   Sloan School of Management and the Cowles Foundation at Yale University.
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NR 62
TC 8
Z9 15
U1 1
U2 17
PU OXFORD UNIV PRESS
PI OXFORD
PA GREAT CLARENDON ST, OXFORD OX2 6DP, ENGLAND
SN 0266-4658
EI 1468-0327
J9 ECON POLICY
JI Econ. Policy
PD JUL
PY 2021
VL 36
IS 107
BP 551
EP 589
DI 10.1093/epolic/eiab008
PG 39
WC Economics
WE Social Science Citation Index (SSCI)
SC Business & Economics
GA YI0YG
UT WOS:000743582400006
DA 2026-06-14
ER

PT J
AU Marangoni, G
   Lamontagne, JR
   Quinn, JD
   Reed, PM
   Keller, K
AF Marangoni, Giacomo
   Lamontagne, Jonathan R.
   Quinn, Julianne D.
   Reed, Patrick M.
   Keller, Klaus
TI Adaptive mitigation strategies hedge against extreme climate futures
SO CLIMATIC CHANGE
LA English
DT Article
DE Climate risk management; Adaptive mitigation pathways; Integrated
   assessment modelling; Multi-objective optimization; Direct policy search
ID RISK-MANAGEMENT; TIPPING POINTS; TEMPERATURE; ECONOMICS; MODELS; IMPACT
AB The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change agreed to "strengthen the global response to the threat of climate change, in the context of sustainable development and efforts to eradicate poverty" (UNFCCC 2015). Designing a global mitigation strategy to support this goal poses formidable challenges. For one, there are trade-offs between the economic costs and the environmental benefits of averting climate impacts. Furthermore, the coupled human-Earth systems are subject to deep and dynamic uncertainties. Previous economic analyses typically addressed either the former, introducing multiple objectives, or the latter, making mitigation actions responsive to new information. This paper aims at bridging these two separate strands of literature. We demonstrate how information feedback from observed global temperature changes can jointly improve the economic and environmental performance of mitigation strategies. We focus on strategies that maximize discounted expected utility while also minimizing warming above 2 degrees C, damage costs, and mitigation costs. Expanding on the Dynamic Integrated Climate-Economy (DICE) model and previous multi-objective efforts, we implement closed-loop control strategies, map the emerging trade-offs and quantify the value of the temperature information feedback under both well-characterized and deep climate uncertainties. Adaptive strategies strongly reduce high regrets, guarding against mitigation overspending for less sensitive climate futures, and excessive warming for more sensitive ones.
C1 [Marangoni, Giacomo] Politecn Milan, Dept Management Econ & Ind Engn, Milan, Italy.
   [Marangoni, Giacomo] Ctr Euro Mediterraneo Cambiamenti Climat, RFF CMCC European Inst Econ & Environm, Milan, Italy.
   [Lamontagne, Jonathan R.] Tufts Univ, Dept Civil & Environm Engn, Medford, MA 02155 USA.
   [Quinn, Julianne D.] Univ Virginia, Dept Engn Syst & Environm, Charlottesville, VA USA.
   [Reed, Patrick M.] Cornell Univ, Sch Civil & Environm Engn, Ithaca, NY 14853 USA.
   [Keller, Klaus] Penn State Univ, Dept Geosci, University Pk, PA 16802 USA.
   [Keller, Klaus] Penn State Univ, Earth & Environm Syst Inst, University Pk, PA 16802 USA.
C3 Polytechnic University of Milan; Tufts University; University of
   Virginia; Cornell University; Pennsylvania Commonwealth System of Higher
   Education (PCSHE); Pennsylvania State University; Pennsylvania State
   University - University Park; Pennsylvania Commonwealth System of Higher
   Education (PCSHE); Pennsylvania State University; Pennsylvania State
   University - University Park
RP Marangoni, G (corresponding author), Politecn Milan, Dept Management Econ & Ind Engn, Milan, Italy.; Marangoni, G (corresponding author), Ctr Euro Mediterraneo Cambiamenti Climat, RFF CMCC European Inst Econ & Environm, Milan, Italy.
EM giacomo.marangoni@polimi.it
RI ; Marangoni, Giacomo/HTL-9547-2023; Reed, Patrick/E-4435-2014
OI Quinn, Julianne/0000-0001-7806-4416; Keller, Klaus/0000-0002-5451-8687;
   Marangoni, Giacomo/0000-0003-3994-380X; Reed,
   Patrick/0000-0002-7963-6102; Lamontagne, Jonathan/0000-0003-3976-1678
FU Politecnico di Milano within the CRUI-CARE Agreement; National Science
   Foundation through the Network for Sustainable Climate Risk Management
   (SCRiM) [GEO-1240507]; European Research Council under the European
   Union; ERC [336155]; H2020 European Commission Project NAVIGATE
   [821124]; Penn State Center for Climate Risk Management; European
   Research Council (ERC) [336155] Funding Source: European Research
   Council (ERC)
FX Open access funding provided by Politecnico di Milano within the
   CRUI-CARE Agreement. This work was partially supported by the National
   Science Foundation through the Network for Sustainable Climate Risk
   Management (SCRiM) under NSF cooperative agreement GEO-1240507, the
   European Research Council under the European Union's Seventh Framework
   Programme (FP7/2007-2013), the ERC grant agreement no 336155 (COBHAM),
   the H2020 European Commission Project NAVIGATE under Grant Agreement no
   821124, and the Penn State Center for Climate Risk Management. Any
   opinions, findings, and conclusions or recommendations expressed in this
   material are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the
   views of the funding entities.
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NR 50
TC 9
Z9 10
U1 1
U2 14
PU SPRINGER
PI DORDRECHT
PA VAN GODEWIJCKSTRAAT 30, 3311 GZ DORDRECHT, NETHERLANDS
SN 0165-0009
EI 1573-1480
J9 CLIMATIC CHANGE
JI Clim. Change
PD JUN
PY 2021
VL 166
IS 3-4
AR 37
DI 10.1007/s10584-021-03132-x
PG 17
WC Environmental Sciences; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
WE Science Citation Index Expanded (SCI-EXPANDED)
SC Environmental Sciences & Ecology; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
GA 5H6RH
UT WOS:000867803800001
OA Green Submitted, hybrid
DA 2026-06-14
ER

PT J
AU van der Wijst, KI
   Hof, AF
   van Vuuren, DP
AF van der Wijst, Kaj-Ivar
   Hof, Andries F.
   van Vuuren, Detlef P.
TI On the optimality of 2°C targets and a decomposition of uncertainty
SO NATURE COMMUNICATIONS
LA English
DT Article
ID SOCIAL COST; CLIMATE; CARBON; POLICY; MODEL; ABATEMENT
AB Determining international climate mitigation response strategies is a complex task. Integrated Assessment Models support this process by analysing the interplay of the most relevant factors, including socio-economic developments, climate system uncertainty, damage estimates, mitigation costs and discount rates. Here, we develop a meta-model that disentangles the uncertainties of these factors using full literature ranges. This model allows comparing insights of the cost-minimising and cost-benefit modelling communities. Typically, mitigation scenarios focus on minimum-cost pathways achieving the Paris Agreement without accounting for damages; our analysis shows doing so could double the initial carbon price. In a full cost-benefit setting, we show that the optimal temperature target does not exceed 2.5 degrees C when considering medium damages and low discount rates, even with high mitigation costs. With low mitigation costs, optimal temperature change drops to 1.5 degrees C or less. The most important factor determining the optimal temperature is the damage function, accounting for 50% of the uncertainty. Determining attractive response strategies for international climate policy is a complex task. Here, the authors develop a meta-model that disentangles the main uncertainties using full literature ranges and use it to directly compare the insights of the cost-minimising and cost-benefit modelling communities.
C1 [van der Wijst, Kaj-Ivar; Hof, Andries F.; van Vuuren, Detlef P.] PBL Netherlands Environm Assessment Agcy, The Hague, Netherlands.
   [van der Wijst, Kaj-Ivar; Hof, Andries F.; van Vuuren, Detlef P.] Univ Utrecht, Copernicus Inst Sustainable Dev, Utrecht, Netherlands.
C3 Utrecht University
RP van der Wijst, KI (corresponding author), PBL Netherlands Environm Assessment Agcy, The Hague, Netherlands.; van der Wijst, KI (corresponding author), Univ Utrecht, Copernicus Inst Sustainable Dev, Utrecht, Netherlands.
EM kajivar.vanderwijst@pbl.nl
RI van der Wijst, Kaj-Ivar/AAH-1418-2021; Hof, Andries/AFB-4199-2022; van
   Vuuren, Detlef/A-4764-2009
OI van der Wijst, Kaj-Ivar/0000-0002-9588-7059; Hof,
   Andries/0000-0002-7568-5038; van Vuuren, Detlef/0000-0003-0398-2831
FU European Union's Horizon 2020 Framework Programme for Research and
   Innovation [776479]; H2020 Societal Challenges Programme [776479]
   Funding Source: H2020 Societal Challenges Programme
FX The research presented in this paper benefitted from funding under the
   European Union's Horizon 2020 Framework Programme for Research and
   Innovation under grant agreement no. 776479 for the project CO-designing
   the Assessment of Climate Change costs. https://www.coacch.eu.
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NR 44
TC 23
Z9 24
U1 0
U2 15
PU NATURE PORTFOLIO
PI BERLIN
PA HEIDELBERGER PLATZ 3, BERLIN, 14197, GERMANY
EI 2041-1723
J9 NAT COMMUN
JI Nat. Commun.
PD MAY 6
PY 2021
VL 12
IS 1
AR 2575
DI 10.1038/s41467-021-22826-5
PG 11
WC Multidisciplinary Sciences
WE Science Citation Index Expanded (SCI-EXPANDED); Social Science Citation Index (SSCI)
SC Science & Technology - Other Topics
GA SK8RR
UT WOS:000656486400001
PM 33958594
OA Green Submitted, gold
DA 2026-06-14
ER

PT J
AU Kornek, U
   Klenert, D
   Edenhofer, O
   Fleurbaey, M
AF Kornek, Ulrike
   Klenert, David
   Edenhofer, Ottmar
   Fleurbaey, Marc
TI The social cost of carbon and inequality: When local redistribution
   shapes global carbon prices
SO JOURNAL OF ENVIRONMENTAL ECONOMICS AND MANAGEMENT
LA English
DT Article
DE Optimal taxation; Inequality; Climate change; Social cost of carbon;
   Carbon tax
ID CLIMATE-CHANGE; DAMAGE COSTS; EMISSIONS; POVERTY; POLICY; GROWTH; TAXES;
   TEMPERATURE; MODELS
AB The social cost of carbon is a central metric for optimal carbon prices. Previous literature shows that inequality significantly influences the social cost of carbon, but mostly omits het-erogeneity below the national level. We present an optimal taxation model of the social cost of carbon that accounts for inequality between and within countries. We find that climate and distributional policy can generally not be separated. If only one country does not compen-sate low-income households for disproportionate damages, the social cost of carbon tends to increase globally. Optimal carbon prices remain roughly unchanged if national redistribu-tion leaves inequality between households unaffected by climate change and if the utility of households is approximately logarithmic in consumption. (c) 2021 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Inc. This is an open access article under the CC BY-NC-ND license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/).
C1 [Kornek, Ulrike; Edenhofer, Ottmar] Mercator Res Inst Global Commons & Climate Change, EUREF Campus 19, D-10829 Berlin, Germany.
   [Kornek, Ulrike] Christian Albrechts Univ Kiel, Chair Environm & Resource Econ, Wilhelm Sehlig Pl 1, D-24118 Kiel, Germany.
   [Klenert, David] European Commiss, Joint Res Ctr, C Inca Garcilaso 3, Seville 41092, Spain.
   [Edenhofer, Ottmar] Potsdam Inst Climate Impact Res, POB 60 12 03, D-14412 Potsdam, Germany.
   [Edenhofer, Ottmar] Tech Univ Berlin, Dept Econ Climate Change, Str 17 Juni 145, D-10623 Berlin, Germany.
   [Fleurbaey, Marc] CNRS, 48 Bd Jourdan, F-75014 Paris, France.
   [Fleurbaey, Marc] Paris Sch Econ, 48 Bd Jourdan, F-75014 Paris, France.
C3 University of Kiel; Potsdam Institut fur Klimafolgenforschung; Technical
   University of Berlin; Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique
   (CNRS); Paris School of Economics
RP Kornek, U (corresponding author), Mercator Res Inst Global Commons & Climate Change, EUREF Campus 19, D-10829 Berlin, Germany.
EM kornek@mcc-berlin.net
RI Edenhofer, Ottmar/E-1886-2013; Fleurbaey, Marc/HHS-9231-2022
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TC 33
Z9 39
U1 4
U2 104
PU ACADEMIC PRESS INC ELSEVIER SCIENCE
PI SAN DIEGO
PA 525 B ST, STE 1900, SAN DIEGO, CA 92101-4495 USA
SN 0095-0696
EI 1096-0449
J9 J ENVIRON ECON MANAG
JI J.Environ.Econ.Manage.
PD MAY
PY 2021
VL 107
AR 102450
DI 10.1016/j.jeem.2021.102450
EA APR 2021
PG 31
WC Business; Economics; Environmental Studies
WE Social Science Citation Index (SSCI)
SC Business & Economics; Environmental Sciences & Ecology
GA WR8JI
UT WOS:000714741000009
OA Green Submitted, Green Published, hybrid
DA 2026-06-14
ER

PT J
AU Lupi, V
   Marsiglio, S
AF Lupi, Veronica
   Marsiglio, Simone
TI Population growth and climate change: A dynamic integrated
   climate-economy-demography model*
SO ECOLOGICAL ECONOMICS
LA English
DT Article
DE Climate Change; Population Growth; Population Policy
ID SOCIAL COST; POLICY; FUTURE
AB We explore the bidirectional relationship between population growth and climate change: while population determines carbon emissions which drive climate change, climate change impacts the mortality rate and so population growth. Such population-climate feedback effects suggest that demographic policy may represent an alternative to traditional mitigation policies. We explore this possibility by introducing a population policy aiming at imposing a cap on population growth into an extended global integrated assessment model of climateeconomy with endogenous fertility choices and temperature-related mortality. We show that the social costs of environmental policies, as reflected by both the social cost of carbon and social welfare, substantially increase by accounting for endogenous population change, but demographic policy allows to significantly reduce such costs. This clearly suggests that population growth does matter and so population policy may represent an effective mitigation tool to complement standard climate policies.
C1 [Lupi, Veronica] Univ Milan, Dept Econ Management & Quantitat Methods, Milan, Italy.
   [Lupi, Veronica] Bocconi Univ, GREEN Ctr Res Geog Resources Environm Energy & Ne, Milan, Italy.
   [Marsiglio, Simone] Univ Pisa, Dept Econ & Management, Pisa, Italy.
C3 University of Milan; Bocconi University; University of Pisa
RP Lupi, V (corresponding author), Univ Milan, Dept Econ Management & Quantitat Methods, Milan, Italy.; Lupi, V (corresponding author), Bocconi Univ, GREEN Ctr Res Geog Resources Environm Energy & Ne, Milan, Italy.
EM veronica.lupi1@unimi.it; simone.marsiglio@unipi.it
RI ; /K-2863-2012
OI LUPI, VERONICA/0000-0002-9101-0858; 
FU University di Pisa [PRA_2020_79]
FX We are indebted to three anonymous referees for their constructive
   comments on an earlier draft of the paper. We also wish to thank
   Valentina Bosetti, Enrica De Cian and Marzio Galeotti for insightful
   discussions and feedback. All remaining errors and omissions are our own
   sole responsibility. Simone Marsiglio acknowledges financial support
   from the University di Pisa under the "PRA -Progetti di Ricerca di
   Ateneo" (Institutional Research Grants) -Project no. PRA_2020_79
   "Sustainable development: economic, environmental and social issues".
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PU ELSEVIER
PI AMSTERDAM
PA RADARWEG 29, 1043 NX AMSTERDAM, NETHERLANDS
SN 0921-8009
EI 1873-6106
J9 ECOL ECON
JI Ecol. Econ.
PD JUN
PY 2021
VL 184
AR 107011
DI 10.1016/j.ecolecon.2021.107011
EA MAR 2021
PG 16
WC Ecology; Economics; Environmental Sciences; Environmental Studies
WE Science Citation Index Expanded (SCI-EXPANDED); Social Science Citation Index (SSCI)
SC Environmental Sciences & Ecology; Business & Economics
GA RH8DU
UT WOS:000636442900011
OA Green Submitted
DA 2026-06-14
ER

PT J
AU Junne, T
   Cao, KK
   Miskiw, KK
   Hottenroth, H
   Naegler, T
AF Junne, Tobias
   Cao, Karl-Kien
   Miskiw, Kim Kira
   Hottenroth, Heidi
   Naegler, Tobias
TI Considering Life Cycle Greenhouse Gas Emissions in Power System
   Expansion Planning for Europe and North Africa Using Multi-Objective
   Optimization
SO ENERGIES
LA English
DT Article
DE energy system modeling; life cycle assessment; multi-objective
   optimization
ID ENVIRONMENTAL CO-BENEFITS; CARBON-DIOXIDE EMISSIONS; ENERGY SYSTEM;
   IMPACTS; STORAGE; MODEL; WIND; SIDE
AB We integrate life cycle indicators for various technologies of an energy system model with high spatiotemporal detail and a focus on Europe and North Africa. Using multi-objective optimization, we calculate a pareto front that allows us to assess the trade-offs between system costs and life cycle greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions of future power systems. Furthermore, we perform environmental ex-post assessments of selected solutions using a broad set of life cycle impact categories. In a system with the least life cycle GHG emissions, the costs would increase by similar to 63%, thereby reducing life cycle GHG emissions by similar to 82% compared to the cost-optimal solution. Power systems mitigating a substantial part of life cycle GHG emissions with small increases in system costs show a trend towards a deployment of wind onshore, electricity grid and a decline in photovoltaic plants and Li-ion storage. Further reductions are achieved by the deployment of concentrated solar power, wind offshore and nuclear power but lead to considerably higher costs compared to the cost-optimal solution. Power systems that mitigate life cycle GHG emissions also perform better for most impact categories but have higher ionizing radiation, water use and increased fossil fuel demand driven by nuclear power. This study shows that it is crucial to consider upstream GHG emissions in future assessments, as they represent an inheritable part of total emissions in ambitious energy scenarios that, so far, mainly aim to reduce direct CO2 emissions.
C1 [Junne, Tobias; Cao, Karl-Kien; Miskiw, Kim Kira; Naegler, Tobias] German Aerosp Ctr DLR, Dept Energy Syst Anal, Inst Networked Energy Syst, D-70563 Stuttgart, Germany.
   [Hottenroth, Heidi] Pforzheim Univ, Inst Ind Ecol INEC, D-75175 Pforzheim, Germany.
   [Miskiw, Kim Kira] Karlsruhe Inst Technol, Inst Ind Prod, Chair Energy Econ, D-76187 Karlsruhe, Germany.
C3 Helmholtz Association; German Aerospace Centre (DLR); Helmholtz
   Association; Karlsruhe Institute of Technology
RP Junne, T (corresponding author), German Aerosp Ctr DLR, Dept Energy Syst Anal, Inst Networked Energy Syst, D-70563 Stuttgart, Germany.
EM Tobias.Junne@dlr.de; Karl-Kien.Cao@dlr.de; Kim.Miskiw@partner.kit.edu;
   Heidi.Hottenroth@hs-pforzheim.de; Tobias.Naegler@dlr.de
RI ; Cao, Karl-Kiên/AAF-6110-2020
OI Miskiw, Kim K/0009-0009-1389-4844; Naegler, Tobias/0000-0003-2390-1672;
   Cao, Karl-Kiên/0000-0002-9720-0337; Junne, Tobias/0000-0002-1576-8069
FU German Federal Ministry for Economic Affairs and Energy within the
   project "Integrated Sustainability Assessment and Optimization of Energy
   Systems" (InNOSys) [03ET4058]
FX This research was funded by the German Federal Ministry for Economic
   Affairs and Energy within the project "Integrated Sustainability
   Assessment and Optimization of Energy Systems" (InNOSys), grant number
   03ET4058.
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NR 60
TC 21
Z9 22
U1 2
U2 17
PU MDPI
PI BASEL
PA MDPI AG, Grosspeteranlage 5, CH-4052 BASEL, SWITZERLAND
EI 1996-1073
J9 ENERGIES
JI Energies
PD MAR
PY 2021
VL 14
IS 5
AR 1301
DI 10.3390/en14051301
PG 26
WC Energy & Fuels
WE Science Citation Index Expanded (SCI-EXPANDED)
SC Energy & Fuels
GA QV8IT
UT WOS:000628208700001
OA Green Submitted, Green Published, gold
DA 2026-06-14
ER

PT J
AU Hambel, C
   Kraft, H
   Schwartz, E
AF Hambel, Christoph
   Kraft, Holger
   Schwartz, Eduardo
TI Optimal carbon abatement in a stochastic equilibrium model with climate
   change
SO EUROPEAN ECONOMIC REVIEW
LA English
DT Article
DE Climate change economics; Carbon abatement; Social cost of carbon; GDP
   Growth; Stochastic differential utility
ID MARKET PARTICIPATION; RARE DISASTERS; DAMAGE COSTS; TEMPERATURE; RISK;
   SENSITIVITY; MITIGATION; SATURATION; POLICY; TIME
AB There is much discussion in the literature about the resources society should commit to ameliorate the effects of climate change. The optimal greenhouse gas abatement strategy has a direct relation to the social cost of carbon (SCC) which measures the externalities incurred in emitting one ton of carbon dioxide into the atmosphere. This paper studies a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model involving climate change which allows for a systematic analysis of the SCC. One special feature of the framework is that it considers feedback effects on the temperature dynamics. We compare two approaches to capture damaging effects of temperature on output (level vs. growth rate impact) and find that there are notable differences in the optimal abatement strategy and the SCC. We document that climate uncertainty delivers a major contribution to the social cost of carbon. In particular, different types of climate shocks amplify each other and give an additional boost to the social cost of carbon. We also analyze the effect of risk aversion and the elasticity of intertemporal substitution on the SCC. (C) 2020 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
C1 [Hambel, Christoph; Kraft, Holger] Goethe Univ Frankfurt, Fac Econ & Business Adm, Theodor W Adorno Pl 3, D-60323 Frankfurt, Germany.
   [Schwartz, Eduardo] UCLA Anderson Sch Management, Los Angeles, CA USA.
   [Schwartz, Eduardo] Simon Fraser Univ, Vancouver, BC, Canada.
   [Schwartz, Eduardo] NBER, Cambridge, MA 02138 USA.
C3 Goethe University Frankfurt; University of California System; University
   of California Los Angeles; Simon Fraser University; National Bureau of
   Economic Research
RP Kraft, H (corresponding author), Goethe Univ Frankfurt, Fac Econ & Business Adm, Theodor W Adorno Pl 3, D-60323 Frankfurt, Germany.
EM christoph.hambel@finance.uni-frankfurt.de;
   holgerkraft@finance.uni-frankfurt.de; eduardo.schwartz@anderson.ucla.edu
RI Hambel, Christoph/AAL-7645-2021
OI Hambel, Christoph/0000-0002-8061-5210
FU Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft (DFG)
FX We thank Christian Gollier, Lars Hansen, Isabelle Mejean, (the editor),
   Frederick van der Ploeg, Armon Rezai, Christian Traeger, and anonymous
   referees for helpful comments and suggestions. We also thank
   participants of the 23rd Annual Conference of the European Association
   of Environmental and Resource Economists (EAERE 2017), the FinanceUC
   Conference, Santiago, Chile, the Santiago Finance Workshop, Chile, the
   Frankfurt-Mannheim Macro Workshop, and the joint seminar of the Humboldt
   University Berlin and ESMT for their comments and suggestions. All
   remaining errors are of course our own. Holger Kraft and Christoph
   Hambel gratefully acknowledge financial support by Deutsche
   Forschungsgemeinschaft (DFG).
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TC 39
Z9 56
U1 0
U2 31
PU ELSEVIER
PI AMSTERDAM
PA RADARWEG 29, 1043 NX AMSTERDAM, NETHERLANDS
SN 0014-2921
EI 1873-572X
J9 EUR ECON REV
JI Eur. Econ. Rev.
PD FEB
PY 2021
VL 132
AR 103642
DI 10.1016/j.euroecorev.2020.103642
EA JAN 2021
PG 25
WC Economics
WE Social Science Citation Index (SSCI)
SC Business & Economics
GA QG8GJ
UT WOS:000617819500023
DA 2026-06-14
ER

PT J
AU Gschnaller, S
AF Gschnaller, Sandra
TI The albedo loss from the melting of the Greenland ice sheet and the
   social cost of carbon
SO CLIMATIC CHANGE
LA English
DT Article
DE Social cost of carbon; Climate change; Greenland ice sheet; Snow-albedo
   feedback; Tipping
ID TIPPING POINTS; INTEGRATED ASSESSMENT; CLIMATE-CHANGE; MASS-BALANCE;
   FEEDBACK; SNOW; POLICY; DISINTEGRATION; VARIABILITY; PROJECTIONS
AB I extend the reduced Greenland ice sheet (GIS) model-module of DICE-GIS (Nordhaus, Proc Natl Acad Sci 25(116):12261-12269, 2019) by integrating snow-albedo feedback (SAF) and potential tipping of the ice sheet into the resuming DICE-GIS SAF model. The increasing global temperature no longer only results in the melting of the GIS, but also in albedo loss, which in turn impacts the strength of the SAF. As a consequence, global warming and the melting of the ice accelerate. The social cost of carbon (SCC) increases because the economic damages are not only related to intensified sea level rise, but also to accelerated global temperature rise. Accounting for the SAF raises the SCC from 37 to 41 $/t CO2 in 2020, an increase of 11%. The temperature increase is the key channel through which the SAF impacts the SCC. The long-term volume of the GIS decreases by 2%, while the additional inclusion of tipping reduces it further by up to 35%.
C1 [Gschnaller, Sandra] Ifo Inst Wirtschaftsforsch, Munich, Germany.
C3 Leibniz Association; Ifo Institut
RP Gschnaller, S (corresponding author), Ifo Inst Wirtschaftsforsch, Munich, Germany.
EM gschnallersandra@yahoo.de
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NR 66
TC 4
Z9 4
U1 2
U2 24
PU SPRINGER
PI DORDRECHT
PA VAN GODEWIJCKSTRAAT 30, 3311 GZ DORDRECHT, NETHERLANDS
SN 0165-0009
EI 1573-1480
J9 CLIMATIC CHANGE
JI Clim. Change
PD DEC
PY 2020
VL 163
IS 4
SI SI
BP 2201
EP 2231
DI 10.1007/s10584-020-02936-7
EA DEC 2020
PG 31
WC Environmental Sciences; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
WE Science Citation Index Expanded (SCI-EXPANDED); Social Science Citation Index (SSCI)
SC Environmental Sciences & Ecology; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
GA PT4IO
UT WOS:000599483400001
DA 2026-06-14
ER

PT J
AU Brown, PT
   Saunders, H
AF Brown, Patrick T.
   Saunders, Harry
TI Approximate calculations of the net economic impact of global warming
   mitigation targets under heightened damage estimates
SO PLOS ONE
LA English
DT Article
ID CLIMATE-CHANGE; INTEGRATED ASSESSMENT; SOCIAL COST; TEMPERATURE; GROWTH;
   CARBON; WEATHER; SHOCKS; RISK; UNCERTAINTY
AB Efforts to mitigate global warming are often justified through calculations of the economic damages that may occur absent mitigation. The earliest such damage estimates were speculative mathematical representations, but some more recent studies provide empirical estimates of damages on economic growth that accumulate over time and result in larger damages than those estimated previously. These heightened damage estimates have been used to suggest that limiting global warming this century to 1.5 degrees C avoids tens of trillions of 2010 US$ in damage to gross world product relative to limiting global warming to 2.0 degrees C. However, in order to estimate theneteffect on gross world product, mitigation costs associated with decarbonizing the world's energy systems must be subtracted from the benefits of avoided damages. Here, we follow previous work to parameterize the aforementioned heightened damage estimates into a schematic global climate-economy model (DICE) so that they can be weighed against mainstream estimates of mitigation costs in a unified framework. We investigate the net effect of mitigation on gross world product through finite time horizons under a spectrum of exogenously defined levels of mitigation stringency. We find that even under heightened damage estimates, the additional mitigation costs of limiting global warming to 1.5 degrees C (relative to 2.0 degrees C) are higher than the additional avoided damages this century under most parameter combinations considered. Specifically, using our central parameter values, limiting global warming to 1.5 degrees C results in a net loss of gross world product of roughly forty trillion US$ relative to 2 degrees C and achieving either 1.5 degrees C or 2.0 degrees C require a net sacrifice of gross world product, relative to a no-mitigation case, though 2100 with a 3%/year discount rate. However, the benefits of more stringent mitigation accumulate over time and our calculations indicate that stabilizing warming at 1.5 degrees C or 2.0 degrees C by 2100 would eventually confer net benefits of thousands of trillions of US$ in gross world product by 2300. The results emphasize the temporal asymmetry between the costs of mitigation and benefits of avoided damages from climate change and thus the long timeframe for which climate change mitigation investment pays off.
C1 [Brown, Patrick T.] San Jose State Univ, Dept Meteorol & Climate Sci, San Jose, CA 95192 USA.
   [Saunders, Harry] Carnegie Inst Sci, Dept Global Ecol, Stanford, CA USA.
C3 California State University System; San Jose State University; Carnegie
   Institution for Science
RP Brown, PT (corresponding author), San Jose State Univ, Dept Meteorol & Climate Sci, San Jose, CA 95192 USA.
EM patrick.brown@sjsu.edu
OI Brown, Patrick/0000-0002-5058-1718
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NR 90
TC 4
Z9 8
U1 0
U2 10
PU PUBLIC LIBRARY SCIENCE
PI SAN FRANCISCO
PA 1160 BATTERY STREET, STE 100, SAN FRANCISCO, CA 94111 USA
EI 1932-6203
J9 PLOS ONE
JI PLoS One
PD OCT 7
PY 2020
VL 15
IS 10
AR e0239520
DI 10.1371/journal.pone.0239520
PG 27
WC Multidisciplinary Sciences
WE Science Citation Index Expanded (SCI-EXPANDED); Social Science Citation Index (SSCI)
SC Science & Technology - Other Topics
GA OG3SJ
UT WOS:000581808000011
PM 33027254
OA Green Submitted, gold
DA 2026-06-14
ER

PT J
AU Bastien-Olvera, BA
   Moore, FC
AF Bastien-Olvera, Bernardo A.
   Moore, Frances C.
TI Use and non-use value of nature and the social cost of carbon
SO NATURE SUSTAINABILITY
LA English
DT Article
ID CLIMATE-CHANGE; DAMAGE COSTS; RISK; IMPACTS; GROWTH; PRICES; MODELS
AB Models used to calculate the costs of carbon emissions do not include ecological damages. This study expands an integrated assessment model to include natural capital as a form of wealth, and shows that accounting for the use and non-use value of nature has large implications for climate policy.
   Climate change is damaging ecosystems throughout the world with serious implications for human well-being. Quantifying the benefits of reducing emissions requires understanding these costs, but the unique and non-market nature of many goods provided by natural systems makes them difficult to value. Detailed representation of ecological damages in models used to calculate the costs of greenhouse gas emissions has been largely lacking. Here, we have expanded a cost-benefit integrated assessment model to include natural capital as a form of wealth. This brings benefits to people through non-use existence value and as an input into the production of ecosystem services and market goods. In our model, using central estimates for all parameters, optimal emissions reach zero by the year 2050, limiting warming to 1.5 degrees C by the year 2100. We used Monte Carlo analysis to examine the influence of several key uncertain model parameters, and examined the effect of adaptive investments in natural systems that partially offset climate damages. Overall, we show that accounting for the use and non-use value of nature has large implications for climate policy. Our analysis suggests that better understanding climate impacts on natural systems and associated welfare effects should be a high priority for future research.
C1 [Bastien-Olvera, Bernardo A.] Univ Calif Davis, Geog Grad Grp, Davis, CA 95616 USA.
   [Moore, Frances C.] Univ Calif Davis, Environm Sci & Policy Dept, Davis, CA 95616 USA.
C3 University of California System; University of California Davis;
   University of California System; University of California Davis
RP Bastien-Olvera, BA (corresponding author), Univ Calif Davis, Geog Grad Grp, Davis, CA 95616 USA.
EM bastien@ucdavis.edu
RI Bastien Olvera, Bernardo Adolfo/KII-8244-2024
OI Bastien Olvera, Bernardo Adolfo/0000-0002-3734-4267
FU National Science Foundation [1924378]; Hellman Fellows Program;
   Fulbright-Garcia Robles Fellowship; UC Davis John Muir Institute of the
   Environment Fellowship; Direct For Biological Sciences [1924378] Funding
   Source: National Science Foundation; Division Of Environmental Biology
   [1924378] Funding Source: National Science Foundation
FX This study was supported by the National Science Foundation (award
   number 1924378: 'CNH2-S: Understanding the Coupling Between Climate
   Policy and Ecosystem Change'), the Hellman Fellows Program (F.C.M.), the
   Fulbright-Garcia Robles Fellowship (B.A.B.-O.) and a UC Davis John Muir
   Institute of the Environment Fellowship (B.A.B.-O.).
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NR 54
TC 67
Z9 84
U1 3
U2 96
PU NATURE PORTFOLIO
PI BERLIN
PA HEIDELBERGER PLATZ 3, BERLIN, 14197, GERMANY
SN 2398-9629
J9 NAT SUSTAIN
JI Nat. Sustain.
PD FEB
PY 2021
VL 4
IS 2
BP 101
EP +
DI 10.1038/s41893-020-00615-0
EA SEP 2020
PG 11
WC Green & Sustainable Science & Technology; Environmental Sciences;
   Environmental Studies
WE Science Citation Index Expanded (SCI-EXPANDED); Social Science Citation Index (SSCI)
SC Science & Technology - Other Topics; Environmental Sciences & Ecology
GA QI8MO
UT WOS:000573469900002
DA 2026-06-14
ER

PT J
AU Bondarev, A
   Greiner, A
AF Bondarev, Anton
   Greiner, Alfred
TI Global warming and technical change: Multiple steady-states and policy
   options
SO CHINA ECONOMIC REVIEW
LA English
DT Article
DE Greenhouse gases; Doubly-differentiated R&D; Double dividend; Fiscal
   policy; Technology lock-in; Public spending
ID CLIMATE-CHANGE; TECHNOLOGICAL-CHANGE; GROWTH; DYNAMICS; MODEL
AB We develop an economic growth model that incorporates anthropogenic climate change and a publicly funded research sector that creates new technologies and simultaneously expands the productivities of existing technologies. Greenhouse gas emissions are affected by R&D activities both negatively, through the increase of output from productivity growth, and positively as new technologies are less polluting. We find that there may exist two different steady-states of the economy, depending on the amount of research spending: one with less new technologies being developed and the other with more technologies. Thus, a lock-in effect can arise that, however, can be overcome by raising R&D spending sufficiently such that the steady-state becomes unique. We derive the combinations of fiscal policy instruments for which that can be achieved and we study the implications for the economy and with respect to emissions. In particular, the double dividend hypothesis may hold under some specific conditions.
C1 [Bondarev, Anton] Xian Jiaotong Liverpool Univ, Int Business Sch Suzhou, Renai Rd 111, Suzhou 215123, Peoples R China.
   [Greiner, Alfred] Univ Bielefeld, PO 100131, D-33501 Bielefeld, Germany.
C3 Xi'an Jiaotong-Liverpool University; University of Bielefeld
RP Bondarev, A (corresponding author), Xian Jiaotong Liverpool Univ, Int Business Sch Suzhou, Renai Rd 111, Suzhou 215123, Peoples R China.
EM anton.bondarev@xjtlu.edu.cn; agreiner@uni-bielefeld.dec
RI Bondarev, Anton/AAD-1506-2021
OI Bondarev, Anton/0000-0003-4572-2405
FU Bundesministerium fur Bildung und Forschung (BMBF) [01LA1105C]; Swiss
   Commission for Technology and Innovation (CTI) [KTI.2014.0114]
FX This research was financially supported by the Bundesministerium fur
   Bildung und Forschung (BMBF) (grant 01LA1105C) and Swiss Commission for
   Technology and Innovation (CTI) (contract KTI.2014.0114).
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NR 29
TC 2
Z9 3
U1 0
U2 25
PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC
PI NEW YORK
PA STE 800, 230 PARK AVE, NEW YORK, NY 10169 USA
SN 1043-951X
EI 1873-7781
J9 CHINA ECON REV
JI China Econ. Rev.
PD AUG
PY 2020
VL 62
AR 101511
DI 10.1016/j.chieco.2020.101511
PG 19
WC Economics
WE Social Science Citation Index (SSCI)
SC Business & Economics
GA NM1CO
UT WOS:000567842300039
DA 2026-06-14
ER

PT J
AU Hänsel, MC
   Drupp, MA
   Johansson, DJA
   Nesje, F
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   Freeman, MC
   Groom, B
   Sterner, T
AF Haensel, Martin C.
   Drupp, Moritz A.
   Johansson, Daniel J. A.
   Nesje, Frikk
   Azar, Christian
   Freeman, Mark C.
   Groom, Ben
   Sterner, Thomas
TI Climate economics support for the UN climate targets
SO NATURE CLIMATE CHANGE
LA English
DT Article
ID SOCIAL COST; INTEGRATED ASSESSMENT; IMPULSE-RESPONSE; GROWTH;
   TEMPERATURE; DAMAGE; CO2; EQUILIBRIUM; MITIGATION; EMISSIONS
AB The economic optimality of limiting global warming to below 2 degrees C has been questioned. This analysis shows that the 2 degrees C target is economically optimal in a version of the DICE model that includes updated climate science, climate damage estimates and evidence on social discount rates.
   Under the UN Paris Agreement, countries committed to limiting global warming to well below 2 degrees C and to actively pursue a 1.5 degrees C limit. Yet, according to the 2018 Economics Nobel laureate William Nordhaus, these targets are economically suboptimal or unattainable and the world community should aim for 3.5 degrees C in 2100 instead. Here, we show that the UN climate targets may be optimal even in the Dynamic Integrated Climate-Economy (DICE) integrated assessment model, when appropriately updated. Changes to DICE include more accurate calibration of the carbon cycle and energy balance model, and updated climate damage estimates. To determine economically 'optimal' climate policy paths, we use the range of expert views on the ethics of intergenerational welfare. When updates from climate science and economics are considered jointly, we find that around three-quarters (or one-third) of expert views on intergenerational welfare translate into economically optimal climate policy paths that are consistent with the 2 degrees C (or 1.5 degrees C) target.
C1 [Haensel, Martin C.] Leibniz Assoc, Potsdam Inst Climate Impact Res, Potsdam, Germany.
   [Drupp, Moritz A.] Univ Hamburg, Dept Econ, Hamburg, Germany.
   [Drupp, Moritz A.] Univ Hamburg, Ctr Earth Syst Res & Sustainabil CEN, Hamburg, Germany.
   [Drupp, Moritz A.] CESifo, Munich, Germany.
   [Johansson, Daniel J. A.; Azar, Christian] Chalmers Univ Technol, Dept Space Earth & Environm, Div Phys Resource Theory, Gothenburg, Sweden.
   [Nesje, Frikk] Heidelberg Univ, Dept Econ, Heidelberg, Germany.
   [Nesje, Frikk] Univ Oslo, Dept Econ, Oslo, Norway.
   [Freeman, Mark C.] Univ York, York Management Sch, York, N Yorkshire, England.
   [Groom, Ben] London Sch Econ & Polit Sci, Dept Geog & Environm, London, England.
   [Groom, Ben] London Sch Econ & Polit Sci, Grantham Res Inst Climate Change & Environm, London, England.
   [Groom, Ben] Univ Exeter, Dept Econ, Dragon Capital Chair Biodivers Econ, Exeter, Devon, England.
   [Sterner, Thomas] Univ Gothenburg, Dept Econ, Gothenburg, Sweden.
C3 Potsdam Institut fur Klimafolgenforschung; University of Hamburg;
   University of Hamburg; Leibniz Association; Ifo Institut; Chalmers
   University of Technology; Ruprecht Karls University Heidelberg;
   University of Oslo; University of York - UK; University of London;
   London School Economics & Political Science; University of London;
   London School Economics & Political Science; University of Exeter;
   University of Gothenburg
RP Groom, B (corresponding author), London Sch Econ & Polit Sci, Dept Geog & Environm, London, England.; Groom, B (corresponding author), London Sch Econ & Polit Sci, Grantham Res Inst Climate Change & Environm, London, England.; Groom, B (corresponding author), Univ Exeter, Dept Econ, Dragon Capital Chair Biodivers Econ, Exeter, Devon, England.
EM B.Groom@lse.ac.uk
RI Sterner, Thomas/AGZ-2537-2022; Groom, Ben/AAP-9305-2021
OI Hänsel, Martin C/0000-0002-0242-3168; Drupp, Moritz/0000-0001-8981-0496;
   Freeman, Mark C/0000-0003-4521-2720; Nesje, Frikk/0000-0002-5675-136X;
   Groom, Ben/0000-0003-0729-143X
FU DFG under Germany's Excellence Strategy (EXC 2037) [390683824]; CREE,
   Oslo Centre for Research on Environmentally Friendly Energy (Norwegian
   Research Council) [209698]; NATCOOP (European Research Council)
   [678049]; Carl Bennet AB Foundation; MISTRA Carbon Exit; DFG under
   Germany's Exahcellence Strategy (CLICCS) [390683824]; Academy of Finland
   (AKA) [209698] Funding Source: Academy of Finland (AKA); European
   Research Council (ERC) [678049] Funding Source: European Research
   Council (ERC)
FX We thank G. Asheim, P. Courtois, M. Cropper, F. Diekert, S. Dietz, P.
   Ferraro, D. Garrick, T. Goeschl, C. Gollier, A. Gouldson, B. Harstad, C.
   Hepburn, H. Holtermann, M. Kotchen, S. Lewandowsky, J. Marotzke, K.
   Nyborg, B. O'Neill, G. Perino, M. Persson, B. Pizer, W. Rickels, M.-C.
   Riekhof, C. Traeger, M. Weitzman and S. Yeh for helpful discussions and
   A. Mahler for research assistance. The views expressed in this paper are
   those of the authors alone. M.A.D. was supported by the DFG under
   Germany's Excellence Strategy (EXC 2037 and CLICCS) project no.
   390683824, contribution to the CEN of Universitat Hamburg. F.N. is
   grateful for financial support from CREE, Oslo Centre for Research on
   Environmentally Friendly Energy (Norwegian Research Council no. 209698)
   and NATCOOP (European Research Council no. 678049). C.A. is grateful for
   financial support from Carl Bennet AB Foundation. T.S. and D.J.A.J.
   acknowledge support from MISTRA Carbon Exit and also for T.S. the
   Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services in a Changing Climate Consortium.
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NR 119
TC 132
Z9 177
U1 1
U2 91
PU NATURE PORTFOLIO
PI BERLIN
PA HEIDELBERGER PLATZ 3, BERLIN, 14197, GERMANY
SN 1758-678X
EI 1758-6798
J9 NAT CLIM CHANGE
JI Nat. Clim. Chang.
PD AUG
PY 2020
VL 10
IS 8
BP 781
EP +
DI 10.1038/s41558-020-0833-x
EA JUL 2020
PG 22
WC Environmental Sciences; Environmental Studies; Meteorology & Atmospheric
   Sciences
WE Science Citation Index Expanded (SCI-EXPANDED); Social Science Citation Index (SSCI)
SC Environmental Sciences & Ecology; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
GA MT2IN
UT WOS:000548163400006
OA Green Accepted, hybrid
DA 2026-06-14
ER

PT J
AU Sanderson, BM
   O'Neill, BC
AF Sanderson, Benjamin M.
   O'Neill, Brian C.
TI Assessing the costs of historical inaction on climate change
SO SCIENTIFIC REPORTS
LA English
DT Article
ID INTEGRATED ASSESSMENT MODELS; SOCIAL COST; CARBON; TEMPERATURE;
   EMISSION; UNCERTAINTIES; IMPACT
AB We consider alternative history scenarios in which explicit climate mitigation begins before the present day, estimating the total costs to date of delayed action. Considering a 2(1.5) degree Celsius stabilization target, peak costs are greater and reached sooner with a later start to mitigation, reaching 15(17)% of global GDP in 2085(2070) for a 1990 start and 18(35)% in 2080(2035) for a 2020 start. Further mitigation delay costs a best estimate of an additional 0.5(5) trillion dollars per year. Additional simulations show how optimal mitigation pathways evolve without imposing a warming limit, finding that median abatement levels and costs are not strongly dependent on start date. However, whereas 18(5) percent of optimal solutions starting in 1980 meet the 2(or 1.5) degree target, 5(or 0)% of 2020 simulations meet the goals. Discounted damages due to delayed mitigation action rise by 0.6 trillion US dollars per year in 2020.
C1 [Sanderson, Benjamin M.] CERFACS, Toulouse, France.
   [Sanderson, Benjamin M.] Natl Ctr Atmospher Res, POB 3000, Boulder, CO 80307 USA.
   [O'Neill, Brian C.] Univ Denver, Denver, CO USA.
C3 CERFACS; National Center Atmospheric Research (NCAR) - USA; University
   of Denver
RP Sanderson, BM (corresponding author), CERFACS, Toulouse, France.; Sanderson, BM (corresponding author), Natl Ctr Atmospher Res, POB 3000, Boulder, CO 80307 USA.
EM sanderson@cerfacs.fr
RI Sanderson, Benjamin/E-7312-2013; O'Neill, Brian/E-6531-2013
OI Sanderson, Benjamin/0000-0001-8635-4624; O'Neill,
   Brian/0000-0001-7505-8897
FU French National Research Agency [ANR-17-MPGA-0016]; National Science
   Foundation; Agence Nationale de la Recherche (ANR) [ANR-17-MPGA-0016]
   Funding Source: Agence Nationale de la Recherche (ANR)
FX Many thanks to Daniel Johansson for useful feedback. Benjamin Sanderson
   is supported by the French National Research Agency, project number
   ANR-17-MPGA-0016. Benjamin Sanderson is an affiliate scientist with the
   National Center for Atmospheric Research, sponsored by the National
   Science Foundation.
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NR 54
TC 51
Z9 67
U1 0
U2 10
PU NATURE PORTFOLIO
PI BERLIN
PA HEIDELBERGER PLATZ 3, BERLIN, 14197, GERMANY
SN 2045-2322
J9 SCI REP-UK
JI Sci Rep
PD JUN 8
PY 2020
VL 10
IS 1
AR 9173
DI 10.1038/s41598-020-66275-4
PG 12
WC Multidisciplinary Sciences
WE Science Citation Index Expanded (SCI-EXPANDED); Social Science Citation Index (SSCI)
SC Science & Technology - Other Topics
GA NB4AN
UT WOS:000560457200014
PM 32514079
OA Green Submitted, gold
DA 2026-06-14
ER

PT J
AU Glanemann, N
   Willner, SN
   Levermann, A
AF Glanemann, Nicole
   Willner, Sven N.
   Levermann, Anders
TI Paris Climate Agreement passes the cost-benefit test
SO NATURE COMMUNICATIONS
LA English
DT Article
ID SOCIAL COST; GROWTH; CARBON; TEMPERATURE; DAMAGE; WEATHER; IMPACT;
   OUTPUT; MODEL
AB The Paris Climate Agreement aims to keep temperature rise well below 2 degrees C. This implies mitigation costs as well as avoided climate damages. Here we show that independent of the normative assumptions of inequality aversion and time preferences, the agreement constitutes the economically optimal policy pathway for the century. To this end we consistently incorporate a damage-cost curve reproducing the observed relation between temperature and economic growth into the integrated assessment model DICE. We thus provide an intertemporally optimizing cost-benefit analysis of this century's climate problem. We account for uncertainties regarding the damage curve, climate sensitivity, socioeconomic future, and mitigation costs. The resulting optimal temperature is robust as can be understood from the generic temperature-dependence of the mitigation costs and the level of damages inferred from the observed temperature-growth relationship. Our results show that the politically motivated Paris Climate Agreement also represents the economically favourable pathway, if carried out properly.
C1 [Glanemann, Nicole; Willner, Sven N.; Levermann, Anders] Potsdam Inst Climate Impact Res, D-14473 Potsdam, Germany.
   [Glanemann, Nicole] WHU Otto Beishe Sch Management, D-56179 Vallendar, Germany.
   [Levermann, Anders] Potsdam Univ, Inst Phys, D-14476 Potsdam, Germany.
   [Levermann, Anders] Columbia Univ, New York, NY 10027 USA.
C3 Potsdam Institut fur Klimafolgenforschung; WHU - Otto Beisheim School of
   Management; University of Potsdam; Columbia University
RP Willner, SN (corresponding author), Potsdam Inst Climate Impact Res, D-14473 Potsdam, Germany.
EM sven.willner@pik-potsdam.de
RI ; Levermann, Anders/G-4666-2011
OI Willner, Sven/0000-0001-6798-6247; Levermann, Anders/0000-0003-4432-4704
FU Horizon 2020 Framework Programme of the European Union [641811]
FX This research has received funding from the Horizon 2020 Framework
   Programme of the European Union (grant agreement no. 641811).
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NR 63
TC 109
Z9 132
U1 0
U2 46
PU NATURE PORTFOLIO
PI BERLIN
PA HEIDELBERGER PLATZ 3, BERLIN, 14197, GERMANY
EI 2041-1723
J9 NAT COMMUN
JI Nat. Commun.
PD JAN 27
PY 2020
VL 11
IS 1
AR 110
DI 10.1038/s41467-019-13961-1
PG 11
WC Multidisciplinary Sciences
WE Science Citation Index Expanded (SCI-EXPANDED); Social Science Citation Index (SSCI)
SC Science & Technology - Other Topics
GA KK1WB
UT WOS:000512538800001
PM 31988294
OA Green Submitted, gold
DA 2026-06-14
ER

PT J
AU Dietz, S
   Venmans, F
AF Dietz, Simon
   Venmans, Frank
TI Cumulative carbon emissions and economic policy: In search of general
   principles
SO JOURNAL OF ENVIRONMENTAL ECONOMICS AND MANAGEMENT
LA English
DT Article
DE Carbon price; Climate change; Cumulative emissions; Peak warming; Social
   cost of carbon
ID CLIMATE-CHANGE; DIOXIDE; COST; PROPORTIONALITY; TARGETS; IMPACTS; RISK
AB We exploit recent advances in climate science to develop a physically consistent, yet surprisingly simple, model of climate policy. It seems that key economic models have greatly overestimated the delay between carbon emissions and warming, and ignored the saturation of carbon sinks that takes place when the atmospheric concentration of carbon dioxide rises. This has important implications for climate policy. If carbon emissions are abated, damages are avoided almost immediately. Therefore it is optimal to reduce emissions significantly in the near term and bring about a slow transition to optimal peak warming, even if optimal steady-state/peak warming is high. The optimal carbon price should start relatively high and grow relatively fast. (C) 2019 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Inc.
C1 [Dietz, Simon; Venmans, Frank] London Sch Econ & Polit Sci, ESRC Ctr Climate Change Econ & Policy, Grantham Res Inst Climate Change & Environm, London, England.
   [Dietz, Simon] London Sch Econ & Polit Sci, Dept Geog & Environm, London, England.
   [Dietz, Simon] Univ Oxford, Oxford Martin Sch, Oxford, England.
   [Dietz, Simon] Univ Oxford, Smith Sch Enterprise & Environm, Oxford, England.
   [Venmans, Frank] Univ Mons, Waroque Sch Econ & Management, Dept Microecon, Mons, Belgium.
C3 University of London; London School Economics & Political Science; UK
   Research & Innovation (UKRI); Economic & Social Research Council (ESRC);
   University of London; London School Economics & Political Science;
   University of Oxford; University of Oxford; University of Mons
RP Dietz, S (corresponding author), London Sch Econ & Polit Sci, ESRC Ctr Climate Change Econ & Policy, Grantham Res Inst Climate Change & Environm, London, England.
EM s.dietz@lse.ac.uk
RI Venmans, Frank/AER-7816-2022; Dietz, Simon/AAX-9362-2020
OI Venmans, Frank/0000-0002-4264-6606; Dietz, Simon/0000-0001-5002-018X
FU ESRC; Grantham Foundation; FNRS; ESRC [ES/R009708/1] Funding Source:
   UKRI
FX This paper has benefited from comments by Inge van den Bijgaart, Reyer
   Gerlagh, Andre Grimaud, Derek Lemoine, Rick van der Ploeg, Ivan Rudik,
   and two anonymous referees, as well as seminar participants at EAERE
   2017, FAERE 2017, SURED 2018, FEEM Milan, LSE and Oxford. We would like
   to acknowledge the financial support of the ESRC, the Grantham
   Foundation and FNRS. The authors have no conflicts of interest or
   financial interests to disclose.
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NR 45
TC 132
Z9 169
U1 2
U2 70
PU ACADEMIC PRESS INC ELSEVIER SCIENCE
PI SAN DIEGO
PA 525 B ST, STE 1900, SAN DIEGO, CA 92101-4495 USA
SN 0095-0696
EI 1096-0449
J9 J ENVIRON ECON MANAG
JI J.Environ.Econ.Manage.
PD JUL
PY 2019
VL 96
BP 108
EP 129
DI 10.1016/j.jeem.2019.04.003
PG 22
WC Business; Economics; Environmental Studies
WE Social Science Citation Index (SSCI)
SC Business & Economics; Environmental Sciences & Ecology
GA LG7VY
UT WOS:000528304900006
OA Green Submitted, hybrid
DA 2026-06-14
ER

PT J
AU Nordhaus, W
AF Nordhaus, William
TI Economics of the disintegration of the Greenland ice sheet
SO PROCEEDINGS OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES OF THE UNITED STATES OF
   AMERICA
LA English
DT Article
DE climate change; Greenland ice sheet; economics; DICE model; optimization
ID SEA-LEVEL; MODEL; PROJECTIONS; THRESHOLDS
AB Concerns about the impact on large-scale earth systems have taken center stage in the scientific and economic analysis of climate change. The present study analyzes the economic impact of a potential disintegration of the Greenland ice sheet (GIS). The study introduces an approach that combines long-run economic growth models, climate models, and reduced-form GIS models. The study demonstrates that social cost-benefit analysis and damage-limiting strategies can be usefully extended to illuminate issues with major long-term consequences, as well as concerns such as potential tipping points, irreversibility, and hysteresis. A key finding is that, under a wide range of assumptions, the risk of GIS disintegration makes a small contribution to the optimal stringency of current policy or to the overall social cost of climate change. It finds that the cost of GIS disintegration adds less than 5% to the social cost of carbon (SCC) under alternative discount rates and estimates of the GIS dynamics.
C1 [Nordhaus, William] Yale Univ, Dept Econ, New Haven, CT 06520 USA.
C3 Yale University
RP Nordhaus, W (corresponding author), Yale Univ, Dept Econ, New Haven, CT 06520 USA.
EM william.nordhaus@yale.edu
OI GUEYE, Mamadou/0009-0004-4617-5612
FU National Science Foundation; US Department of Energy; Carnegie
   Foundation
FX The author is grateful for helpful comments from many researchers and
   colleagues. Particular thanks go to Klaus Keller, who has pioneered work
   on the interface of economics and earth sciences. Additionally, I am
   grateful for feedback from Richard Alley, Eli Fenichel, Ken Gillingham,
   Matt Kotchen, Robert Mendelsohn, Joe Shapiro, Martin Weitzman, as well
   as the editor and anonymous referees. The research was supported by the
   National Science Foundation and the US Department of Energy as well as
   by a fellowship from the Carnegie Foundation. All views and errors are
   the responsibility of the author.
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NR 20
TC 30
Z9 37
U1 0
U2 35
PU NATL ACAD SCIENCES
PI WASHINGTON
PA 2101 CONSTITUTION AVE NW, WASHINGTON, DC 20418 USA
SN 0027-8424
EI 1091-6490
J9 P NATL ACAD SCI USA
JI Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U. S. A.
PD JUN 18
PY 2019
VL 116
IS 25
BP 12261
EP 12269
DI 10.1073/pnas.1814990116
PG 9
WC Multidisciplinary Sciences
WE Science Citation Index Expanded (SCI-EXPANDED)
SC Science & Technology - Other Topics
GA ID7UI
UT WOS:000471887900031
PM 31164425
OA Green Submitted, Bronze
DA 2026-06-14
ER

PT J
AU Scovronick, N
   Budolfson, M
   Dennig, F
   Errickson, F
   Fleurbaey, M
   Peng, W
   Socolow, RH
   Spears, D
   Wagner, F
AF Scovronick, Noah
   Budolfson, Mark
   Dennig, Francis
   Errickson, Frank
   Fleurbaey, Marc
   Peng, Wei
   Socolow, Robert H.
   Spears, Dean
   Wagner, Fabian
TI The impact of human health co-benefits on evaluations of global climate
   policy
SO NATURE COMMUNICATIONS
LA English
DT Article
ID AMBIENT AIR-POLLUTION; QUALITY; MODEL; MORTALITY; EMISSIONS; BURDEN
AB The health co-benefits of CO2 mitigation can provide a strong incentive for climate policy through reductions in air pollutant emissions that occur when targeting shared sources. However, reducing air pollutant emissions may also have an important co-harm, as the aerosols they form produce net cooling overall. Nevertheless, aerosol impacts have not been fully incorporated into cost-benefit modeling that estimates how much the world should optimally mitigate. Here we find that when both co-benefits and co-harms are taken fully into account, optimal climate policy results in immediate net benefits globally, overturning previous findings from cost-benefit models that omit these effects. The global health benefits from climate policy could reach trillions of dollars annually, but will importantly depend on the air quality policies that nations adopt independently of climate change. Depending on how society values better health, economically optimal levels of mitigation may be consistent with a target of 2 degrees C or lower.
C1 [Scovronick, Noah] Emory Univ, Rollins Sch Publ Hlth, Dept Environm Hlth, 1518 Clifton Rd NE, Atlanta, GA 30322 USA.
   [Scovronick, Noah; Fleurbaey, Marc; Wagner, Fabian] Princeton Univ, Woodrow Wilson Sch Publ & Int Affairs, Robertson Hall, Princeton, NJ 08544 USA.
   [Budolfson, Mark] Univ Vermont, Gund Inst Environm, Burlington, VT 05310 USA.
   [Budolfson, Mark] Univ Vermont, Dept Philosophy, Burlington, VT 05310 USA.
   [Budolfson, Mark] Harvard Univ, Edmond J Safra Ctr Eth, 124 Mt Auburn St, Cambridge, MA 02138 USA.
   [Dennig, Francis] Yale NUS Coll, Social Sci Econ, Singapore 138610, Singapore.
   [Dennig, Francis] Ctr Adv Study Behav Sci, Stanford, CA 94305 USA.
   [Errickson, Frank] Univ Calif Berkeley, Energy & Resources Grp, 310 Barrows Hall, Berkeley, CA 94720 USA.
   [Fleurbaey, Marc] Princeton Univ, Univ Ctr Human Values, 304 Louis Marx Hall, Princeton, NJ 08544 USA.
   [Peng, Wei] Penn State Univ, Sch Int Affairs, University Pk, PA 16801 USA.
   [Peng, Wei] Penn State Univ, Dept Civil & Environm Engn, University Pk, PA 16801 USA.
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   [Spears, Dean] Univ Texas Austin, Dept Econ, 2225 Speedway, Austin, TX 78712 USA.
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C3 Emory University; Rollins School Public Health; Princeton University;
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   Berkeley; Princeton University; Pennsylvania Commonwealth System of
   Higher Education (PCSHE); Pennsylvania State University; Pennsylvania
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   Higher Education (PCSHE); Pennsylvania State University; Pennsylvania
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   Texas System; University of Texas Austin; Indian Statistical Institute;
   Indian Statistical Institute Delhi; IZA Institute Labor Economics;
   International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA); Princeton
   University
RP Scovronick, N (corresponding author), Emory Univ, Rollins Sch Publ Hlth, Dept Environm Hlth, 1518 Clifton Rd NE, Atlanta, GA 30322 USA.; Scovronick, N (corresponding author), Princeton Univ, Woodrow Wilson Sch Publ & Int Affairs, Robertson Hall, Princeton, NJ 08544 USA.
EM Scovronick@emory.edu
RI ; Fleurbaey, Marc/HHS-9231-2022
OI Scovronick, Noah/0000-0003-1410-3337; Peng, Wei/0000-0002-1980-0759;
   dennig, francis/0000-0001-7362-1009; Wagner, Fabian/0000-0003-3429-2374
FU Climate Future's Initiative at Princeton University; Gund Institute for
   Environment at the University of Vermont
FX We thank Ciara Burnham and the Climate Future's Initiative at Princeton
   University for support. M. B. was also supported by a Catalyst Award
   from the Gund Institute for Environment at the University of Vermont.
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NR 59
TC 130
Z9 148
U1 3
U2 81
PU NATURE PORTFOLIO
PI BERLIN
PA HEIDELBERGER PLATZ 3, BERLIN, 14197, GERMANY
EI 2041-1723
J9 NAT COMMUN
JI Nat. Commun.
PD MAY 7
PY 2019
VL 10
AR 2095
DI 10.1038/s41467-019-09499-x
PG 12
WC Multidisciplinary Sciences
WE Science Citation Index Expanded (SCI-EXPANDED); Social Science Citation Index (SSCI)
SC Science & Technology - Other Topics
GA HX1FD
UT WOS:000467134300002
PM 31064982
OA Green Submitted, gold
DA 2026-06-14
ER

PT J
AU Lamontagne, JR
   Reed, PM
   Marangoni, G
   Keller, K
   Garner, GG
AF Lamontagne, J. R.
   Reed, P. M.
   Marangoni, G.
   Keller, K.
   Garner, G. G.
TI Robust abatement pathways to tolerable climate futures require immediate
   global action
SO NATURE CLIMATE CHANGE
LA English
DT Article
ID INTEGRATED ASSESSMENT MODELS; SOCIAL COST; CO2 EMISSIONS; SENSITIVITY;
   UNCERTAINTY
AB Disentangling the relative importance of climate change abatement policies from the human-Earth system (HES) uncertainties that determine their performance is challenging because the two are inexorably linked, and the nature of this linkage is dynamic, interactive and metric specific(1). Here, we demonstrate an approach to quantify the individual and joint roles that diverse HES uncertainties and our choices in abatement policy play in determining future climate and economic conditions, as simulated by an improved version of the Dynamic Integrated model of Climate and the Economy(2,3). Despite wide-ranging HES uncertainties, the growth rate of global abatement (a societal choice) is the primary driver of long-term warming. It is not a question of whether we can limit warming but whether we choose to do so. Our results elucidate important long-term HES dynamics that are often masked by common time-aggregated metrics. Aggressive near-term abatement will be very costly and do little to impact near-term warming. Conversely, the warming that will be experienced by future generations will mostly be driven by earlier abatement actions. We quantify probabilistic abatement pathways to tolerable climate/economic outcomes(4,5), conditional on the climate sensitivity to the atmospheric CO2 concentration. Even under optimistic assumptions about the climate sensitivity, pathways to a tolerable climate/economic future are rapidly narrowing.
C1 [Lamontagne, J. R.] Tufts Univ, Dept Civil & Environm Engn, Medford, MA 02155 USA.
   [Reed, P. M.] Cornell Univ, Sch Civil & Environm Engn, Ithaca, NY 14853 USA.
   [Marangoni, G.; Keller, K.] Penn State Univ, Earth & Environm Syst Inst, University Pk, PA 16802 USA.
   [Keller, K.] Penn State Univ, Dept Geosci, University Pk, PA 16802 USA.
   [Garner, G. G.] Rutgers State Univ, Dept Earth & Planetary Sci, Piscataway, NJ USA.
   [Marangoni, G.] Politecn Milan, Dept Management Econ & Ind Engn, Milan, Italy.
C3 Tufts University; Cornell University; Pennsylvania Commonwealth System
   of Higher Education (PCSHE); Pennsylvania State University; Pennsylvania
   State University - University Park; Pennsylvania Commonwealth System of
   Higher Education (PCSHE); Pennsylvania State University; Pennsylvania
   State University - University Park; Rutgers University System; Rutgers
   University New Brunswick; Polytechnic University of Milan
RP Lamontagne, JR (corresponding author), Tufts Univ, Dept Civil & Environm Engn, Medford, MA 02155 USA.
EM jonathan.lamontagne@tufts.edu
RI ; Marangoni, Giacomo/HTL-9547-2023; Reed, Patrick/E-4435-2014
OI Garner, Gregory/0000-0001-7864-1535; Lamontagne,
   Jonathan/0000-0003-3976-1678; Marangoni, Giacomo/0000-0003-3994-380X; 
FU National Science Foundation (NSF) through the Network for Sustainable
   Climate Risk Management under NSF [GEO-1240507]; Penn State Center for
   Climate Risk Management
FX This work was partially supported by the National Science Foundation
   (NSF) through the Network for Sustainable Climate Risk Management under
   NSF cooperative agreement GEO-1240507 as well as the Penn State Center
   for Climate Risk Management. Any opinions, findings and conclusions or
   recommendations expressed in this material are those of the authors and
   do not necessarily reflect the views of the National Science Foundation.
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NR 42
TC 47
Z9 59
U1 0
U2 23
PU NATURE PORTFOLIO
PI BERLIN
PA HEIDELBERGER PLATZ 3, BERLIN, 14197, GERMANY
SN 1758-678X
EI 1758-6798
J9 NAT CLIM CHANGE
JI Nat. Clim. Chang.
PD APR
PY 2019
VL 9
IS 4
BP 290
EP +
DI 10.1038/s41558-019-0426-8
PG 7
WC Environmental Sciences; Environmental Studies; Meteorology & Atmospheric
   Sciences
WE Science Citation Index Expanded (SCI-EXPANDED); Social Science Citation Index (SSCI)
SC Environmental Sciences & Ecology; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
GA HQ4BG
UT WOS:000462353800013
DA 2026-06-14
ER

PT J
AU Budolfson, M
   Dennig, F
   Fleurbaey, M
   Scovronick, N
   Siebert, A
   Spears, D
   Wagner, F
AF Budolfson, Mark
   Dennig, Francis
   Fleurbaey, Marc
   Scovronick, Noah
   Siebert, Asher
   Spears, Dean
   Wagner, Fabian
TI Optimal Climate Policy and the Future of World Economic Development
SO WORLD BANK ECONOMIC REVIEW
LA English
DT Article
DE climate change; climate policy; carbon tax; total factor productivity;
   population growth
ID POPULATION; CHINA
AB How much should the present generations sacrifice to reduce emissions today, in order to reduce the future harms of climate change? Within climate economics, debate on this question has been focused on so-called "ethical parameters" of social time preference and inequality aversion. We show that optimal climate policy similarly importantly depends on the future of the developing world. In particular, although global poverty is falling and the economic lives of the poor are improving worldwide, leading models of climate economics may be too optimistic about two central predictions: future population growth in poor countries, and future convergence in total factor productivity (TFP). We report results of small modifications to a standard model: under plausible scenarios for high future population growth (especially in sub-Saharan Africa) and for low future TFP convergence, we find that optimal near-term carbon taxes could be substantially larger.
C1 [Spears, Dean] Univ Texas Austin, Econ Dept, Austin, TX 78712 USA.
   [Spears, Dean] Indian Stat Inst, Delhi, India.
   [Budolfson, Mark] Univ Vermont, Philosophy Dept, Burlington, VT 05405 USA.
   [Dennig, Francis] Yale NUS Coll Singapore, Singapore, Singapore.
   [Fleurbaey, Marc] Princeton Univ, Woodrow Wilson Sch, Princeton, NJ USA.
   [Fleurbaey, Marc] Princeton Univ, Ctr Human Values, Princeton, NJ USA.
   [Scovronick, Noah] Princeton Univ, Woodrow Wilson Sch Publ & Int Affairs, Princeton, NJ 08544 USA.
   [Siebert, Asher] Columbia Univ, Int Res Inst Climate & Soc, New York, NY 10027 USA.
   [Wagner, Fabian] Int Inst Appl Syst Anal, Laxenburg, Austria.
C3 University of Texas System; University of Texas Austin; Indian
   Statistical Institute; Indian Statistical Institute Delhi; University of
   Vermont; Yale NUS College; Princeton University; Princeton University;
   Princeton University; Columbia University; International Institute for
   Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA)
RP Spears, D (corresponding author), Univ Texas Austin, Econ Dept, Austin, TX 78712 USA.; Spears, D (corresponding author), Indian Stat Inst, Delhi, India.
EM dean@riceinstitute.org; Mark.Budolfson@uvm.edu; fdennig@yale-nus.edu.sg;
   mfleurba@princeton.edu; Noah.Scovronick@princeton.edu;
   asiebert@iri.columbia.edu; fabian@iiasa.ac.at
RI Siebert, Asher/W-1615-2019; Fleurbaey, Marc/HHS-9231-2022
OI Siebert, Asher/0000-0002-7111-8722; Scovronick,
   Noah/0000-0003-1410-3337; Wagner, Fabian/0000-0003-3429-2374; dennig,
   francis/0000-0001-7362-1009
FU Population Research Center - Eunice Kennedy Shriver National Institute
   of Child Health and Human Development [P2CHD042849]
FX Dean Spears (corresponding author) is an Assistant Professor in the
   Economics Department of the University of Texas at Austin and a visiting
   economist at the Indian Statistical Institute in Delhi; his email
   address is dean@riceinstitute.org.Mark Budolfson is an Assistant
   Professor in the Philosophy Department at the University of Vermont; his
   email address isMark.Budolfson@uvm.edu.Francis Dennig is an Assistant
   Professor at Yale-NUS College in Singapore; his email address is
   fdennig@yale-nus.edu.sg.Marc Fleurbaey is Robert E. Kuenne Professor in
   the Woodrow Wilson School and the Center for Human Values at the
   University of Princeton; his email address is
   mfleurba@princeton.edu.Noah Scovronick is a Postdoctoral Research
   Associate in the Woodrow Wilson School of Public and International
   Affairs at Princeton University; his email address
   isNoah.Scovronick@princeton.edu.Asher Siebert is a postdoctoral research
   scientist at the International Research Institute for Climate and
   Society at Columbia University; his email is
   asiebert@iri.columbia.edu.Fabian Wagner is a Senior Research Scholar at
   the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis in Laxenburg,
   Austria; his email address is fabian@iiasa.ac.at.We appreciate comments
   from participants at NEUDC, the Eastern Economic Association, the
   Population Association of America annual meeting, and Princeton
   University. Errors are our own. This paper received no specific funding.
   The research of Dean Spears was supported by grant P2CHD042849,
   Population Research Center, awarded to the Population Research Center at
   the University of Texas at Austin by the Eunice Kennedy Shriver National
   Institute of Child Health and Human Development. The content is solely
   the responsibility of the authors and does not necessarily represent the
   official views of the National Institutes of Health. Supplementary
   online appendixes for this article can be found at The World Bank
   Economic Review website.
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   World Bank, 2011, WORLD DEVELOPMENT REPORT 2011: CONFLICT, SECURITY AND DEVELOPMENT, P1, DOI 10.1596/978-0-8213-8439-8
NR 42
TC 15
Z9 21
U1 1
U2 25
PU OXFORD UNIV PRESS
PI OXFORD
PA GREAT CLARENDON ST, OXFORD OX2 6DP, ENGLAND
SN 0258-6770
EI 1564-698X
J9 WORLD BANK ECON REV
JI World Bank Econ. Rev.
PD FEB
PY 2019
VL 33
IS 1
BP 21
EP 40
DI 10.1093/wber/lhx016
PG 20
WC Business, Finance; Development Studies; Economics
WE Social Science Citation Index (SSCI)
SC Business & Economics; Development Studies
GA HU0HB
UT WOS:000464950900002
PM 38884069
OA Green Submitted
DA 2026-06-14
ER

PT J
AU Howard, P
   Livermore, MA
AF Howard, Peter
   Livermore, Michael A.
TI SOCIOPOLITICAL FEEDBACKS AND CLIMATE CHANGE
SO HARVARD ENVIRONMENTAL LAW REVIEW
LA English
DT Article
ID INTERNATIONAL ENVIRONMENTAL AGREEMENTS; ECONOMIC-GROWTH; CIVIL-WAR;
   NATURAL-RESOURCES; CARBON; CONFLICT; ORGANIZATIONS; TEMPERATURE; DESIGN;
   TREATY
AB The Article investigates sociopolitical feedbacks in the economy-climate system. These feedbacks occur when climate change affects the social or political processes that determine mitigation or adaptation levels, which in turn affect future climate damages. We discuss two possible feedbacks: an economic disruption pathway and a political disruption pathway. In both, climate damages earlier in time undermine mitigation and adaptation policies, which exacerbates future climate damages. Using data on participation in multilateral environmental agreements, we explore the political disruption pathway. Coupled with prior work demonstrating the potential for climate damages to exacerbate civil conflict, our empirical analysis indicates that climate-induced political disruptions may impede climate policymaking, increasing the threat of future damages. We estimate how feedbacks of this sort affect predictions of temperature change and damages in the Dynamic Integrated Climate Economy (DICE) model. We find that, especially if feedbacks affect participation in international emissions-reduction efforts, anticipated temperature change and damages are substantially higher than currently estimated. Finally, we discuss how policymakers can respond to the existence of these feedbacks, especially by facilitating the resilience of climate policies and governance to climate-related shocks.
C1 [Howard, Peter] NYU, Sch Law, Inst Policy Integr, New York, NY 10012 USA.
   [Livermore, Michael A.] Univ Virginia, Sch Law, Law, Charlottesville, VA 22903 USA.
C3 New York University; University of Virginia
RP Howard, P (corresponding author), NYU, Sch Law, Inst Policy Integr, New York, NY 10012 USA.
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NR 135
TC 12
Z9 14
U1 0
U2 4
PU HARVARD LAW SCHOOL
PI CAMBRIDGE
PA PUBLICATIONS CTR, CAMBRIDGE, MA 02138 USA
SN 0147-8257
J9 HARVARD ENVIRON LAW
JI Harv. Environ. Law Rev.
PY 2019
VL 43
IS 1
BP 119
EP 174
PG 56
WC Environmental Studies; Law
WE Social Science Citation Index (SSCI)
SC Environmental Sciences & Ecology; Government & Law
GA VK7AH
UT WOS:000741357300002
DA 2026-06-14
ER

PT J
AU Nordhaus, W
AF Nordhaus, William
TI Projections and Uncertainties about Climate Change in an Era of Minimal
   Climate Policies
SO AMERICAN ECONOMIC JOURNAL-ECONOMIC POLICY
LA English
DT Article
ID SOCIAL COST; MODEL
AB Climate change remains one of the major international environmental challenges facing nations. Up to now, nations have adopted minimal policies to slow climate change. Moreover, there has been no major improvement in emissions trends as of the latest data. The current study uses the updated DICE model to develop new projections of trends and impacts of alternative climate policies. It also presents a new set of estimates of the uncertainties about future climate change and compares the results with those of other integrated assessment models. The study confirms past estimates of likely rapid climate change over the next century if major climate-change policies are not taken. It suggests that it is unlikely that nations can achieve the 2 degrees C target of international agreements, even if ambitious policies are introduced in the near term. The required carbon price needed to achieve current targets has risen over time as policies have been delayed.
C1 [Nordhaus, William] Yale Univ, Dept Econ, 28 Hillhouse Ave, New Haven, CT 06511 USA.
C3 Yale University
RP Nordhaus, W (corresponding author), Yale Univ, Dept Econ, 28 Hillhouse Ave, New Haven, CT 06511 USA.
EM william.nordhaus@yale.edu
OI GUEYE, Mamadou/0009-0004-4617-5612
FU Carnegie Commission of New York; US National Science Foundation; US
   Department of Energy
FX The research reported here was supported by the Carnegie Commission of
   New York, the US National Science Foundation, and the US Department of
   Energy. The views are entirely the responsibility of the author. The
   author declares that he has no relevant and material financial conflicts
   with the research described in this paper.
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NR 29
TC 240
Z9 319
U1 4
U2 148
PU AMER ECONOMIC ASSOC
PI NASHVILLE
PA 2014 BROADWAY, STE 305, NASHVILLE, TN 37203 USA
SN 1945-7731
EI 1945-774X
J9 AM ECON J-ECON POLIC
JI Am. Econ. J.-Econ. Policy
PD AUG
PY 2018
VL 10
IS 3
BP 333
EP 360
DI 10.1257/pol.20170046
PG 28
WC Economics
WE Social Science Citation Index (SSCI)
SC Business & Economics
GA GO3MH
UT WOS:000439894600012
OA Green Submitted, Bronze
DA 2026-06-14
ER

PT J
AU Barrage, L
AF Barrage, Lint
TI Be careful what you calibrate for: Social discounting in general
   equilibrium
SO JOURNAL OF PUBLIC ECONOMICS
LA English
DT Article
DE Discounting; Social discount rate; Carbon taxes; Ramsey taxation;
   Distortionary taxes; General equilibrium climate-economy model
ID OPTIMAL TAXATION; OPTIMAL TAXES; POLICY; CONSISTENT
AB Concerns about intergenerational equity have led to an influential practice of setting social utility discount rates based on ethical considerations rather than to match household behavior, particularly in climate change economics (e.g., Stern, 2006). This paper formalizes the broader policy implications of this approach in general equilibrium by characterizing jointly optimal environmental and fiscal policies in a climate-economy model with differential planner-household discounting. First, I show that decentralizing the optimal allocation requires not only high carbon prices but also fundamental changes to tax policy: If the government discounts the future less than households, implementing the optimal allocation requires an effective capital income subsidy (a negative intertemporal wedge), and, in a setting with distortionary taxation, an effective labor-consumption tax wedge that is decreasing over time. Second, if the government cannot subsidize capital income, the constrained-optimal carbon tax may be up to 50% below the present value of marginal damages (the social cost of carbon) due to the general equilibrium effects of climate policy on household savings. Third, given the choice to optimize either carbon, capital, or labor income taxes, the socially discounting planner's welfare ranking is ambiguous over a standard range of parameters. Overall, in general equilibrium, a policy-maker's choice to adopt differential social discounting may thus overturn conventional recommendations for both environmental and fiscal policy.
C1 [Barrage, Lint] Brown Univ, Providence, RI 02912 USA.
   [Barrage, Lint] NBER, Cambridge, MA 02138 USA.
C3 Brown University; National Bureau of Economic Research
RP Barrage, L (corresponding author), Brown Univ, Providence, RI 02912 USA.; Barrage, L (corresponding author), NBER, Cambridge, MA 02138 USA.
EM lint_barrage@brown.edu
OI Barrage, Lint/0000-0002-2343-4827
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NR 58
TC 25
Z9 36
U1 1
U2 24
PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE SA
PI LAUSANNE
PA PO BOX 564, 1001 LAUSANNE, SWITZERLAND
SN 0047-2727
J9 J PUBLIC ECON
JI J. Public Econ.
PD APR
PY 2018
VL 160
BP 33
EP 49
DI 10.1016/j.jpubeco.2018.02.012
PG 17
WC Economics
WE Social Science Citation Index (SSCI)
SC Business & Economics
GA GN4RI
UT WOS:000439019500003
DA 2026-06-14
ER

PT J
AU Rogelj, J
   Popp, A
   Calvin, KV
   Luderer, G
   Emmerling, J
   Gernaat, D
   Fujimori, S
   Strefler, J
   Hasegawa, T
   Marangoni, G
   Krey, V
   Kriegler, E
   Riahi, K
   van Vuuren, DP
   Doelman, J
   Drouet, L
   Edmonds, J
   Fricko, O
   Harmsen, M
   Havlík, P
   Humpenöder, F
   Stehfest, E
   Tavoni, M
AF Rogelj, Joeri
   Popp, Alexander
   Calvin, Katherine V.
   Luderer, Gunnar
   Emmerling, Johannes
   Gernaat, David
   Fujimori, Shinichiro
   Strefler, Jessica
   Hasegawa, Tomoko
   Marangoni, Giacomo
   Krey, Volker
   Kriegler, Elmar
   Riahi, Keywan
   van Vuuren, Detlef P.
   Doelman, Jonathan
   Drouet, Laurent
   Edmonds, Jae
   Fricko, Oliver
   Harmsen, Mathijs
   Havlik, Petr
   Humpenoeder, Florian
   Stehfest, Elke
   Tavoni, Massimo
TI Scenarios towards limiting global mean temperature increase below 1.5 °C
SO NATURE CLIMATE CHANGE
LA English
DT Article
ID CLIMATE-CHANGE RESEARCH; MODEL; MITIGATION; LAND; FRAMEWORK
AB The 2015 Paris Agreement calls for countries to pursue efforts to limit global-mean temperature rise to 1.5 degrees C. The transition pathways that can meet such a target have not, however, been extensively explored. Here we describe scenarios that limit end-of-century radiative forcing to 1.9 W m(-2), and consequently restrict median warming in the year 2100 to below 1.5 degrees C. We use six integrated assessment models and a simple climate model, under different socio-economic, technological and resource assumptions from five Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSPs). Some, but not all, SSPs are amenable to pathways to 1.5 degrees C. Successful 1.9 W m(-2) scenarios are characterized by a rapid shift away from traditional fossil-fuel use towards large-scale low-carbon energy supplies, reduced energy use, and carbon-dioxide removal. However, 1.9 W m(-2) scenarios could not be achieved in several models under SSPs with strong inequalities, high baseline fossil-fuel use, or scattered short-term climate policy. Further research can help policy-makers to understand the real-world implications of these scenarios.
C1 [Rogelj, Joeri; Fujimori, Shinichiro; Hasegawa, Tomoko; Krey, Volker; Riahi, Keywan; Fricko, Oliver; Havlik, Petr] IIASA, Laxenburg, Austria.
   [Rogelj, Joeri] Swiss Fed Inst Technol, Inst Atmospher & Climate Sci, Zurich, Switzerland.
   [Popp, Alexander; Luderer, Gunnar; Strefler, Jessica; Kriegler, Elmar; Humpenoeder, Florian] Leibniz Assoc, Potsdam Inst Climate Impact Res PIK, Potsdam, Germany.
   [Calvin, Katherine V.; Edmonds, Jae] Pacific Northwest Natl Lab, Joint Global Change Res Inst, College Pk, MD USA.
   [Emmerling, Johannes; Marangoni, Giacomo; Drouet, Laurent; Tavoni, Massimo] Fdn Eni Enrico Mattei, Milan, Italy.
   [Emmerling, Johannes; Marangoni, Giacomo; Drouet, Laurent; Tavoni, Massimo] Ctr Euromediterraneo Cambiamenti Climatici, Milan, Italy.
   [Gernaat, David; van Vuuren, Detlef P.; Doelman, Jonathan; Harmsen, Mathijs; Stehfest, Elke] PBL Netherlands Environm Assessment Agcy, The Hague, Netherlands.
   [Gernaat, David; van Vuuren, Detlef P.; Harmsen, Mathijs] Univ Utrecht, Copernicus Inst Sustainable Dev, Utrecht, Netherlands.
   [Fujimori, Shinichiro; Hasegawa, Tomoko] Natl Inst Environm Studies, Tsukuba, Ibaraki, Japan.
   [Tavoni, Massimo] Politecn Milan, Dept Management Econ & Ind Engn, Milan, Italy.
C3 International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA); Swiss
   Federal Institutes of Technology Domain; ETH Zurich; Potsdam Institut
   fur Klimafolgenforschung; United States Department of Energy (DOE);
   Pacific Northwest National Laboratory; Fondazione Mattei; Utrecht
   University; National Institute for Environmental Studies - Japan;
   Polytechnic University of Milan
RP Rogelj, J (corresponding author), IIASA, Laxenburg, Austria.; Rogelj, J (corresponding author), Swiss Fed Inst Technol, Inst Atmospher & Climate Sci, Zurich, Switzerland.
EM rogelj@iiasa.ac.at
RI Fujimori, Shinichiro/A-1288-2015; Drouet, Laurent/J-9894-2019; Luderer,
   Gunnar/G-2967-2012; Kriegler, Elmar/I-3048-2016; Hasegawa,
   Tomoko/AAB-2616-2019; van Vuuren, Detlef/A-4764-2009; Riahi,
   Keywan/B-6426-2011; Oliver, Fricko/ABE-5732-2020; Humpenöder,
   Florian/HHN-1081-2022; Marangoni, Giacomo/HTL-9547-2023; Rogelj,
   Joeri/I-7108-2012; Popp, Alexander/N-7064-2014; EMMERLING,
   Johannes/K-8283-2019; Krey, Volker/ABD-5070-2021; Havlík,
   Petr/H-1521-2014; Calvin, Katherine/ADF-2443-2022; Stehfest,
   Elke/AAZ-4121-2020; Strefler, Jessica/O-7556-2015
OI Fujimori, Shinichiro/0000-0001-7897-1796; Drouet,
   Laurent/0000-0002-4087-7662; Luderer, Gunnar/0000-0002-9057-6155;
   Kriegler, Elmar/0000-0002-3307-2647; Hasegawa,
   Tomoko/0000-0003-2456-5789; tavoni, massimo/0000-0001-5069-4707;
   Doelman, Jonathan/0000-0002-6842-573X; Havlik, Petr/0000-0001-5551-5085;
   van Vuuren, Detlef/0000-0003-0398-2831; Riahi,
   Keywan/0000-0001-7193-3498; Oliver, Fricko/0000-0002-6835-9883;
   Humpenöder, Florian/0000-0003-2927-9407; Marangoni,
   Giacomo/0000-0003-3994-380X; Rogelj, Joeri/0000-0003-2056-9061; Popp,
   Alexander/0000-0001-9500-1986; EMMERLING, Johannes/0000-0003-0916-9913;
   Krey, Volker/0000-0003-0307-3515; 
FU European Union [642147, 641816, 308329]; Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft
   (DFG) [SPP ED 178/3-1]; JSPS KAKENHI Grant [JP16K18177]; Ministry of
   Environment of Japan [2-1702]; Oxford Martin Visiting Fellowship
   Programme
FX We thank the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis
   (IIASA) for hosting and maintaining the SSP Scenario Database of the
   Integrated Assessment Modelling Consortium (IAMC), and thank P. Kolp for
   his reliable support with the administration of and access to scenario
   data, and administration of the database infrastructure. J.R., O.F.,
   V.K., K.R., G.L., E.K. and A.P. have received funding from the European
   Union's Horizon 2020 Research and Innovation Programme under grant
   agreement no. 642147 (CD-LINKS), no. 641816 (CRESCENDO) and the
   Framework Programme 7 under grant agreement no. 308329 (ADVANCE). J.S.
   has received funding from the Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft (DFG) in
   the SPP ED 178/3-1 (CEMICS). S.F. and T.H. are supported by JSPS KAKENHI
   Grant Number JP16K18177, and the Global Environmental Research Fund
   2-1702 of the Ministry of Environment of Japan. J.R. acknowledges the
   support of the Oxford Martin Visiting Fellowship Programme.
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NR 62
TC 1021
Z9 1174
U1 21
U2 569
PU NATURE PORTFOLIO
PI BERLIN
PA HEIDELBERGER PLATZ 3, BERLIN, 14197, GERMANY
SN 1758-678X
EI 1758-6798
J9 NAT CLIM CHANGE
JI Nat. Clim. Chang.
PD APR
PY 2018
VL 8
IS 4
BP 325
EP +
DI 10.1038/s41558-018-0091-3
PG 9
WC Environmental Sciences; Environmental Studies; Meteorology & Atmospheric
   Sciences
WE Science Citation Index Expanded (SCI-EXPANDED); Social Science Citation Index (SSCI)
SC Environmental Sciences & Ecology; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
GA GB6PV
UT WOS:000429194600020
OA Green Submitted, Bronze
HC Y
HP N
DA 2026-06-14
ER

PT J
AU Gerlagh, R
   Liski, M
AF Gerlagh, Reyer
   Liski, Matti
TI CONSISTENT CLIMATE POLICIES
SO JOURNAL OF THE EUROPEAN ECONOMIC ASSOCIATION
LA English
DT Article
ID INTEGRATED ASSESSMENT; SOCIAL COST; ECONOMICS; CARBON; GROWTH; MODELS;
   CO2
AB What are the optimal climate policies when time preferences deviate from the standard exponential discounting and decision makers cannot commit to future policies? We show that, with time-declining discounting, the delay and persistence of climate impacts provide a commitment device to policy makers. We quantify the commitment value in a climate-economy model by solving time-consistent Markov equilibrium capital and emission taxes explicitly. The returns on capital and climate investments are no longer equal, leading to a large increase in the emission tax, compared to a benchmark with equalized returns. The commitment value increases the tax by a factor of 20 in our quantitative assessment. (JEL: H43, H41, D61, D91, Q54, E21)
C1 [Gerlagh, Reyer] Univ Tilburg, Tilburg, Netherlands.
   [Liski, Matti] Aalto Univ, Espoo, Finland.
C3 Tilburg University; Aalto University
RP Gerlagh, R (corresponding author), Univ Tilburg, Tilburg, Netherlands.
EM r.gerlagh@uvt.nl; matti.liski@aalto.fi
OI Gerlagh, Reyer/0000-0001-9781-9212; Liski, Matti/0000-0002-8313-6231
FU Academy of Finland program FICCA; Aalto University project SAGA; Academy
   of Finland program New Energy
FX This paper was previously titled "Carbon prices for the next thousand
   years". We thank anonymous reviewers, the editor (Krueger), Geir Asheim,
   Larry Goulder, Bard Harstad, John Hassler, Michael Hoel, Terry Iverson,
   Larry Karp, Dave Kelly, Per Krusell, Thomas Michielsen, Rick van der
   Ploeg, Tony Smith, Sjak Smulders, Christian Traeger, Cees Withagen,
   participants at Cowles Foundation, NBER Summer Institute, and SURED
   meetings, and at seminars in Helsinki, LSE, Stockholm, Toulouse, Oxford,
   and Basel for many useful comments and discussions. Matti is grateful
   for funding from the Academy of Finland programs FICCA and New Energy,
   and from the Aalto University project SAGA.
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PU OXFORD UNIV PRESS
PI OXFORD
PA GREAT CLARENDON ST, OXFORD OX2 6DP, ENGLAND
SN 1542-4766
EI 1542-4774
J9 J EUR ECON ASSOC
JI J. Eur. Econ. Assoc.
PD FEB
PY 2018
VL 16
IS 1
BP 1
EP 44
DI 10.1093/jeea/jvx010
PG 44
WC Economics
WE Social Science Citation Index (SSCI)
SC Business & Economics
GA GB0TB
UT WOS:000428759100001
OA Green Submitted, Green Published, Bronze
DA 2026-06-14
ER

PT S
AU Hassler, J
   Krusell, P
   Olovsson, C
AF Hassler, John
   Krusell, Per
   Olovsson, Conny
BE Aghion, P
   Rey, H
TI The Consequences of Uncertainty: Climate Sensitivity and Economic
   Sensitivity to the Climate
SO ANNUAL REVIEW OF ECONOMICS, VOL 10
SE Annual Review of Economics
LA English
DT Article; Book Chapter
DE climate change; integrated assessment model; uncertainty
AB We construct an integrated assessment model with multiple energy sources-two fossil fuels and green energy-and use it to evaluate ranges of plausible estimates for the climate sensitivity, as well as for the sensitivity of the economy to climate change. Rather than focusing explicitly on uncertainty, we look at extreme scenarios defined by the upper and lower limits given in available studies in the literature. We compare optimal policy with laissez faire, and we point out the possible policy errors that could arise. By far the largest policy error arises when the climate policy is overly passive; overly zealous climate policy (i.e., a high carbon tax applied when climate change and its negative impacts on the economy are very limited) does not hurt the economy much as there is considerable substitutability between fossil and nonfossil energy sources.
C1 [Hassler, John; Krusell, Per] Inst Int Econ Studies, S-10691 Stockholm, Sweden.
   [Hassler, John; Krusell, Per] Univ Gothenburg, Dept Econ, S-40530 Gothenburg, Sweden.
   [Hassler, John; Krusell, Per] Ctr Econ & Policy Res, London EC1V 0DX, England.
   [Hassler, John] Carnegie Mellon Univ, Soc Econ Measurement, Pittsburgh, PA 15213 USA.
   [Krusell, Per] Natl Bur Econ Res, Cambridge, MA 02138 USA.
   [Olovsson, Conny] Sveriges Riksbank, S-10337 Stockholm, Sweden.
C3 University of Gothenburg; Centre for Economic Policy Research - UK;
   Carnegie Mellon University; National Bureau of Economic Research;
   Sveriges Riksbank
RP Hassler, J (corresponding author), Inst Int Econ Studies, S-10691 Stockholm, Sweden.; Hassler, J (corresponding author), Univ Gothenburg, Dept Econ, S-40530 Gothenburg, Sweden.; Hassler, J (corresponding author), Ctr Econ & Policy Res, London EC1V 0DX, England.; Hassler, J (corresponding author), Carnegie Mellon Univ, Soc Econ Measurement, Pittsburgh, PA 15213 USA.
EM john@hassler.se; per.krusell@iies.su.se; conny.olovsson@riksbank.se
FU ESRC [ES/L009633/1] Funding Source: UKRI; Economic and Social Research
   Council [ES/L009633/1] Funding Source: researchfish
CR [Anonymous], DIRECTED TECHNICAL C
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NR 17
TC 26
Z9 41
U1 1
U2 21
PU ANNUAL REVIEWS
PI PALO ALTO
PA 4139 EL CAMINO WAY, PO BOX 10139, PALO ALTO, CA 94303-0897 USA
SN 1941-1383
BN 978-0-8243-4610-2
J9 ANNU REV ECON
JI Annu. Rev. Econ.
PY 2018
VL 10
BP 189
EP 205
DI 10.1146/annurev-economics-080217-053229
PG 17
WC Economics
WE Book Citation Index – Social Sciences & Humanities (BKCI-SSH); Social Science Citation Index (SSCI)
SC Business & Economics
GA BK8WR
UT WOS:000443938800008
OA Bronze
DA 2026-06-14
ER

PT J
AU Scovronick, N
   Budolfson, MB
   Dennig, F
   Fleurbaey, M
   Siebert, A
   Socolow, RH
   Spears, D
   Wagner, F
AF Scovronick, Noah
   Budolfson, Mark B.
   Dennig, Francis
   Fleurbaey, Marc
   Siebert, Asher
   Socolow, Robert H.
   Spears, Dean
   Wagner, Fabian
TI Impact of population growth and population ethics on climate change
   mitigation policy
SO PROCEEDINGS OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES OF THE UNITED STATES OF
   AMERICA
LA English
DT Article
DE population; climate change; social cost of carbon; social welfare;
   emissions
ID ECONOMICS
AB Future population growth is uncertain and matters for climate policy: higher growth entails more emissions and means more people will be vulnerable to climate-related impacts. We show that how future population is valued importantly determines mitigation decisions. Using the Dynamic Integrated Climate-Economy model, we explore two approaches to valuing population: a discounted version of total utilitarianism (TU), which considers total wellbeing and is standard in social cost of carbon dioxide (SCC) models, and of average utilitarianism (AU), which ignores population size and sums only each time period's discounted average wellbeing. Under both approaches, as population increases the SCC increases, but optimal peak temperature decreases. The effect is larger under TU, because it responds to the fact that a larger population means climate change hurts more people: for example, in 2025, assuming the United Nations (UN)-high rather than UN-low population scenario entails an increase in the SCC of 85% under TU vs. 5% under AU. The difference in the SCC between the two population scenarios under TU is comparable to commonly debated decisions regarding time discounting. Additionally, we estimate the avoided mitigation costs implied by plausible reductions in population growth, finding that large near-term savings ($billions annually) occur under TU; savings under AU emerge in the more distant future. These savings are larger than spending shortfalls for human development policies that may lower fertility. Finally, we show that whether lowering population growth entails overall improvements in wellbeing-rather than merely cost savings-again depends on the ethical approach to valuing population.
C1 [Scovronick, Noah; Fleurbaey, Marc; Wagner, Fabian] Princeton Univ, Woodrow Wilson Sch, Princeton, NJ 08544 USA.
   [Budolfson, Mark B.] Univ Vermont, Dept Philosophy, Burlington, VT 05405 USA.
   [Dennig, Francis] Yale NUS Coll, Singapore 138527, Singapore.
   [Fleurbaey, Marc] Princeton Univ, Ctr Human Values, Princeton, NJ 08544 USA.
   [Siebert, Asher] Columbia Univ, Int Res Inst Climate & Soc, Palisades, NY 10964 USA.
   [Socolow, Robert H.] Princeton Univ, Dept Mech & Aerosp Engn, Princeton, NJ 08544 USA.
   [Spears, Dean] Univ Texas Austin, Dept Econ, Austin, TX 78712 USA.
   [Spears, Dean] Indian Stat Inst, Econ & Planning Unit, Delhi 110016, India.
   [Wagner, Fabian] Princeton Univ, Andlinger Ctr Energy & Environm, Princeton, NJ 08544 USA.
   [Wagner, Fabian] Int Inst Appl Syst Anal, A-2361 Laxenburg, Austria.
C3 Princeton University; University of Vermont; Yale NUS College; Princeton
   University; Columbia University; Princeton University; University of
   Texas System; University of Texas Austin; Indian Statistical Institute;
   Indian Statistical Institute Delhi; Princeton University; International
   Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA)
RP Scovronick, N (corresponding author), Princeton Univ, Woodrow Wilson Sch, Princeton, NJ 08544 USA.
EM Noah.Scovronick@princeton.edu
RI Fleurbaey, Marc/HHS-9231-2022; Siebert, Asher/W-1615-2019
OI Siebert, Asher/0000-0002-7111-8722; Wagner, Fabian/0000-0003-3429-2374;
   Scovronick, Noah/0000-0003-1410-3337; dennig,
   francis/0000-0001-7362-1009
FU NICHD NIH HHS [P2C HD042849] Funding Source: Medline
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NR 47
TC 52
Z9 64
U1 0
U2 50
PU NATL ACAD SCIENCES
PI WASHINGTON
PA 2101 CONSTITUTION AVE NW, WASHINGTON, DC 20418 USA
SN 0027-8424
EI 1091-6490
J9 P NATL ACAD SCI USA
JI Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U. S. A.
PD NOV 14
PY 2017
VL 114
IS 46
BP 12338
EP 12343
DI 10.1073/pnas.1618308114
PG 6
WC Multidisciplinary Sciences
WE Science Citation Index Expanded (SCI-EXPANDED); Social Science Citation Index (SSCI)
SC Science & Technology - Other Topics
GA FM6OL
UT WOS:000415173300079
PM 29087298
OA Green Submitted, Green Published, Bronze
DA 2026-06-14
ER

PT J
AU Marcucci, A
   Kypreos, S
   Panos, E
AF Marcucci, Adriana
   Kypreos, Socrates
   Panos, Evangelos
TI The road to achieving the long-term Paris targets: energy transition and
   the role of direct air capture
SO CLIMATIC CHANGE
LA English
DT Article
ID CO2 CAPTURE; AMBIENT AIR; CARBON-DIOXIDE; MERGE MODEL; ATMOSPHERE;
   STABILIZATION; EMISSIONS; COST
AB In this paper, we quantify the energy transition and economic consequences of the long-term targets from the Paris agreement, with a particular focus on the targets of limiting global warming by the end of the century to 2 and 1.5 A degrees C. The study assumes early actions and quantifies the market penetration of low carbon technologies, the emission pathways and the economic costs for an efficient reduction of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions such that the temperature limit is not exceeded. We evaluate the potential role of direct air capture (DAC) and its impact on policy costs and energy consumption. DAC is a technology that removes emissions directly from the atmosphere contributing to negative carbon emissions. We find that, with our modelling assumptions, limiting global temperature to 1.5 A degrees C is only possible when using DAC. Our results show that the DAC technology can play an important role in realising deep decarbonisation goals and in the reduction of regional and global mitigation costs with stringent targets. DAC acts a substitute to Bio-Energy with Carbon Capture and Storage (BECCS) in the stringent scenarios. For this analysis, we use the model MERGE-ETL, a technology-rich integrated assessment model with endogenous learning.
C1 [Marcucci, Adriana] Swiss Fed Inst Technol, Ctr Econ Res, CH-8092 Zurich, Switzerland.
   [Kypreos, Socrates; Panos, Evangelos] Paul Scherrer Inst, Energy Econ Grp, Villigen, Switzerland.
C3 Swiss Federal Institutes of Technology Domain; ETH Zurich; Swiss Federal
   Institutes of Technology Domain; Paul Scherrer Institute
RP Marcucci, A (corresponding author), Swiss Fed Inst Technol, Ctr Econ Res, CH-8092 Zurich, Switzerland.
EM madriana@ethz.ch; socrates.kypreos@gmail.com; evangelos.panos@psi.ch
RI ; Panos, Evangelos/L-4524-2019
OI Marcucci, Adriana/0000-0002-0427-9120; Panos,
   Evangelos/0000-0002-0620-2581
FU Swiss Competence Center for Energy Research (SCCER) CREST; SCCER-Supply
   of Electricity; Swiss Commission for Technology and Innovation (CTI)
FX S. Kypreos thanks ETSAP for supporting his participation to the
   IEW-2015. A. Marcucci and E. Panos thank the financial support of Swiss
   Competence Center for Energy Research (SCCER) CREST and SCCER-Supply of
   Electricity, which are in turn financially supported by the Swiss
   Commission for Technology and Innovation (CTI). We would also like to
   thank the three anonymous reviewers for their valuable suggestions and
   comments.
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NR 40
TC 101
Z9 124
U1 1
U2 93
PU SPRINGER
PI DORDRECHT
PA VAN GODEWIJCKSTRAAT 30, 3311 GZ DORDRECHT, NETHERLANDS
SN 0165-0009
EI 1573-1480
J9 CLIMATIC CHANGE
JI Clim. Change
PD SEP
PY 2017
VL 144
IS 2
BP 181
EP 193
DI 10.1007/s10584-017-2051-8
PG 13
WC Environmental Sciences; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
WE Science Citation Index Expanded (SCI-EXPANDED); Social Science Citation Index (SSCI)
SC Environmental Sciences & Ecology; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
GA FF5EV
UT WOS:000409001300008
OA Green Submitted
DA 2026-06-14
ER

PT J
AU Carrara, S
   Longden, T
AF Carrara, Samuel
   Longden, Thomas
TI Freight futures: The potential impact of road freight on climate policy
SO TRANSPORTATION RESEARCH PART D-TRANSPORT AND ENVIRONMENT
LA English
DT Article
DE Road freight; Transport; Climate mitigation; Integrated assessment
   models
ID VEHICLE OWNERSHIP; ENERGY; TRANSPORT; WORLDWIDE; ECONOMY; DEMAND
AB This paper describes changes to the modelling of the transport sector in the WITCH (World Induced Technical Change Hybrid) model to incorporate road freight and account for the intensity of freight with respect to GDP. Modelling freight demand based on the intensity of freight with respect to GDP allows for a focus on the importance of road freight with respect to the cost-effective achievement of climate policy targets. These climate policy targets are explored using different GDP pathways between 2005 and 2100, which are sourced from the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) database. Our modelling shows that the decarbonisation of the freight sector tends to occur in the second part of the century and that the sector decarbonises by a lower extent than the rest of the economy. Decarbonising road freight on a global scale remains a challenge even when notable progress in biofuels and electric vehicles has been accounted for. (C) 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
C1 [Carrara, Samuel] FEEM, Corso Magenta 63, I-20123 Milan, Italy.
   [Carrara, Samuel] Ctr Euromediterraneo Cambiamenti Climatici CMCC, Milan, Italy.
   [Longden, Thomas] Univ Technol Sydney, CHERE, Sydney, NSW, Australia.
C3 Fondazione Mattei; Centro Euro-Mediterraneo sui Cambiamenti Climatici
   (CMCC); University of Technology Sydney
RP Carrara, S (corresponding author), FEEM, Corso Magenta 63, I-20123 Milan, Italy.
EM samuel.carrara@feem.it
RI Carrara, Samuel/OZL-9351-2025; Longden, Thomas/I-7977-2015
OI Longden, Thomas/0000-0001-7593-659X
FU European Union's Seventh Framework Programme [308329]
FX The research leading to these results has received funding from the
   European Union's Seventh Framework Programme [FP7/2007-2013] under grant
   agreement no 308329 (ADVANCE).
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NR 26
TC 43
Z9 50
U1 0
U2 52
PU PERGAMON-ELSEVIER SCIENCE LTD
PI OXFORD
PA THE BOULEVARD, LANGFORD LANE, KIDLINGTON, OXFORD OX5 1GB, ENGLAND
SN 1361-9209
EI 1879-2340
J9 TRANSPORT RES D-TR E
JI Transport. Res. Part D-Transport. Environ.
PD AUG
PY 2017
VL 55
BP 359
EP 372
DI 10.1016/j.trd.2016.10.007
PG 14
WC Environmental Studies; Transportation; Transportation Science &
   Technology
WE Science Citation Index Expanded (SCI-EXPANDED); Social Science Citation Index (SSCI)
SC Environmental Sciences & Ecology; Transportation
GA FG3CF
UT WOS:000410013700026
DA 2026-06-14
ER

PT J
AU Belaia, M
   Funke, M
   Glanemann, N
AF Belaia, Mariia
   Funke, Michael
   Glanemann, Nicole
TI Global Warming and a Potential Tipping Point in the Atlantic
   Thermohaline Circulation: The Role of Risk Aversion
SO ENVIRONMENTAL & RESOURCE ECONOMICS
LA English
DT Article
DE Integrated assessment modeling; Risk aversion; Epstein-Zin utility;
   DICE; Thermohaline circulation; Climate sensitivity; Uncertainty
ID MERIDIONAL OVERTURNING CIRCULATION; INTEGRATED ASSESSMENT; TEMPORAL
   RESOLUTION; DECISION-MAKING; COUPLED CLIMATE; ASSET RETURNS;
   UNCERTAINTY; SUBSTITUTION; EQUITY; SENSITIVITY
AB The risk of catastrophes is one of the greatest threats of climate change. Yet, conventional assumptions shared by many integrated assessment models such as DICE lead to the counterintuitive result that higher concern about climate change risks does not lead to stronger near-term abatement efforts. This paper examines whether this result still holds in a refined DICE model that employs the Epstein-Zin utility specification and that is fully coupled with a dynamic tipping point model describing the evolution of the Atlantic thermohaline circulation (THC). Risk is captured by the possibility of a future collapse of the circulation and it is nourished by fat-tailed uncertainty about climate sensitivity. This uncertainty is assumed to resolve in the middle of the second half of this century and the near-term abatement efforts, which are undertaken before that point of time, can be adjusted afterwards. These modelling choices allow posing the question of whether aversion to this specific tipping point risk has a significant effect on near-term policy efforts. The simulations, however, provide evidence that it has little effect. For the more likely climate sensitivity values, a collapse of the circulation would occur in the more distant future. In this case, acting after learning can prevent the catastrophe, implying the remarkable insensitivity of the near-term policy to risk aversion. For the rather unlikely and high climate sensitivity values, the expected damage costs are not great enough to justify taking very costly measures to safeguard the THC. Our simulations also provide some indication that risk aversion might have some effect on near-term policy, if inertia limiting the speed of decarbonisation is accounted for. As it is highly uncertain how restrictive this kind of inertia will be, future research might investigate the effects of risk aversion if additional uncertainty about inertia is considered.
C1 [Belaia, Mariia; Funke, Michael] Univ Hamburg, Dept Econ, Von Melle Pk 5, D-20146 Hamburg, Germany.
   [Glanemann, Nicole] Potsdam Inst Climate Impact Res, Telegraphenberg A 31,POB 60 12 03, D-14412 Potsdam, Germany.
   [Belaia, Mariia] Int Max Planck Res Sch Earth Syst Modelling, Hamburg, Germany.
   [Funke, Michael] CESifo, Munich, Germany.
   [Glanemann, Nicole] WHU Otto Beisheim Sch Management, Vallendar, Germany.
C3 University of Hamburg; Potsdam Institut fur Klimafolgenforschung; Max
   Planck Society; Leibniz Association; Ifo Institut; WHU - Otto Beisheim
   School of Management
RP Belaia, M (corresponding author), Univ Hamburg, Dept Econ, Von Melle Pk 5, D-20146 Hamburg, Germany.; Belaia, M (corresponding author), Int Max Planck Res Sch Earth Syst Modelling, Hamburg, Germany.
EM mariia.belaia@wiso.uni-hamburg.de; michael.funke@uni-hamburg.de;
   nicole.glanemann@pik-potsdam.de
OI Belaia, Mariia/0000-0003-2074-8799
FU German Science Foundation through Cluster of Excellence 'Integrated
   Climate System Analysis and Prediction' (CliSAP) of the University of
   Hamburg
FX We would like to thank the anonymous referee for constructive comments
   that helped improve the contents of this paper. We are also indebted to
   the German Science Foundation for its financial support through its
   funding of the Cluster of Excellence 'Integrated Climate System Analysis
   and Prediction' (CliSAP) of the University of Hamburg. After the period
   in which the research was conducted, Nicole Glanemann changed her
   affiliation from the University of Hamburg to the Potsdam Institute for
   Climate Impact Research and WHU-Otto Beisheim School of Management in
   Vallendar. We would like to express gratitude to Frank Ackerman, Ramon
   Bueno, and Elisabeth A. Stanton for sharing the GAMS code of their
   EZ-DICE model. We would also like to acknowledge Kirsten Zickfeld for
   providing background information on the four-box THC model and for
   offering the MATLAB code. Furthermore, we are grateful to Chao Li for
   his expert advice on Atlantic thermohaline circulation. Of course, any
   remaining mistakes are solely the responsibility of the authors.
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NR 86
TC 13
Z9 17
U1 3
U2 42
PU SPRINGER
PI DORDRECHT
PA VAN GODEWIJCKSTRAAT 30, 3311 GZ DORDRECHT, NETHERLANDS
SN 0924-6460
EI 1573-1502
J9 ENVIRON RESOUR ECON
JI Environ. Resour. Econ.
PD MAY
PY 2017
VL 67
IS 1
BP 93
EP 125
DI 10.1007/s10640-015-9978-x
PG 33
WC Economics; Environmental Studies
WE Social Science Citation Index (SSCI)
SC Business & Economics; Environmental Sciences & Ecology
GA ES6XB
UT WOS:000399692800005
DA 2026-06-14
ER

PT J
AU Hwang, IC
   Reynès, F
   Tol, RSJ
AF Hwang, In Chang
   Reynes, Frederic
   Tol, Richard S. J.
TI The effect of learning on climate policy under fat-tailed risk
SO RESOURCE AND ENERGY ECONOMICS
LA English
DT Article
DE Climate policy; Fat tailed risk; Bayesian learning; Integrated
   assessment; Dynamic programming
ID UNCERTAINTY; IRREVERSIBILITY; SENSITIVITY; FEEDBACKS; INSURANCE;
   TARGETS; GROWTH
AB This paper investigates the effect of learning on climate policy under fat tailed risk about climate change. We construct an endogenous learning model with fat-tailed uncertainty about the equilibrium climate sensitivity. We find that a decision maker with a possibility of learning lowers efforts to reduce carbon emissions relative to the no-learning case. The larger the tail effect, the larger the counteracting learning effect because learning reduces the marginal benefit of emissions control compared to the case where there is no learning. The optimal decisions (summarized by the carbon tax level) in the learning case are less sensitive to the true value of the uncertain variable than the decisions in the uncertainty case. Learning lets uncertainty converge to the true value of the state in the sense that the variance approaches zero as information accumulates. (C) 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
C1 [Hwang, In Chang] Korea Environm Inst, 370 Sicheong Daero, Sejong, South Korea.
   [Reynes, Frederic] OFCE Sci Pos Econ Res Ctr, Rue St Guillaume, F-75337 Paris, France.
   [Reynes, Frederic] TNO Netherlands Org Appl Sci Res, Van Mourik Broekmanweg 6, NL-2600 AA Delft, Netherlands.
   [Tol, Richard S. J.] Univ Sussex, Dept Econ, Jubilee 281, Brighton BN1 9SL, E Sussex, England.
   [Tol, Richard S. J.] Vrije Univ Amsterdam, Inst Environm Studies, De Boelelaan 1087, NL-1081 HV Amsterdam, Netherlands.
   [Tol, Richard S. J.] Vrije Univ Amsterdam, Dept Spatial Econ, De Boelelaan 1105, NL-1081 HV Amsterdam, Netherlands.
   [Tol, Richard S. J.] Tinbergen Inst, Gustav Mahlerpl 117, NL-1082 MS Amsterdam, Netherlands.
   [Tol, Richard S. J.] CESifo, Munich, Germany.
C3 Korea Environment Institute (KEI); Netherlands Organization Applied
   Science Research; University of Sussex; Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam;
   Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam; Tinbergen Institute; Leibniz Association;
   Ifo Institut
RP Hwang, IC (corresponding author), Room 1034,Bldg B,370 Sicheong Daero, Sejong 339007, South Korea.
EM ichwang@kei.re.kr
RI Hwang, In Chang/M-5757-2013; Tol, Richard/D-5245-2011
OI Hwang, In Chang/0000-0002-4312-2476; Tol, Richard/0000-0002-8012-3988;
   Reynès, Frédéric/0000-0003-3965-1903
FU Korea Ministry of Environment (MOE) [201400130001]
FX This study was partly funded by the Korea Ministry of Environment (MOE)
   as Climate Change Correspondence Program (201400130001). An earlier
   version of the paper was presented at the 20th annual conference of the
   European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists (EAERE
   2013) (26-29 June 2013, Toulouse, France) and the summer conference of
   the Korean Environmental Economics Association (20 June 2014, Seoul,
   Korea). The authors are grateful to Reyer Gerlagh, Andreas Lange, Antony
   Millner, Hans-Peter Weikard, Cees Withagen, and two anonymous reviewers
   for their valuable comments and suggestions. All remaining errors are
   the authors.
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NR 59
TC 24
Z9 31
U1 1
U2 14
PU ELSEVIER
PI AMSTERDAM
PA RADARWEG 29, 1043 NX AMSTERDAM, NETHERLANDS
SN 0928-7655
EI 1873-0221
J9 RESOUR ENERGY ECON
JI Resour. Energy Econ.
PD MAY
PY 2017
VL 48
BP 1
EP 18
DI 10.1016/j.reseneeco.2017.01.001
PG 18
WC Economics; Energy & Fuels; Environmental Sciences; Environmental Studies
WE Social Science Citation Index (SSCI)
SC Business & Economics; Energy & Fuels; Environmental Sciences & Ecology
GA EU2RU
UT WOS:000400878100001
OA Green Submitted, Green Published, hybrid
DA 2026-06-14
ER

PT J
AU Nordhaus, WD
AF Nordhaus, William D.
TI Revisiting the social cost of carbon
SO PROCEEDINGS OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES OF THE UNITED STATES OF
   AMERICA
LA English
DT Article
DE social cost carbon; climate change; economics; DICE model
AB The social cost of carbon (SCC) is a central concept for understanding and implementing climate change policies. This term represents the economic cost caused by an additional ton of carbon dioxide emissions or its equivalent. The present study presents updated estimates based on a revised DICE model (Dynamic Integrated model of Climate and the Economy). The study estimates that the SCC is $31 per ton of CO2 in 2010 US$ for the current period (2015). For the central case, the real SCC grows at 3% per year over the period to 2050. The paper also compares the estimates with those from other sources.
C1 [Nordhaus, William D.] Yale Univ, Dept Econ, New Haven, CT 06520 USA.
C3 Yale University
RP Nordhaus, WD (corresponding author), Yale Univ, Dept Econ, New Haven, CT 06520 USA.
EM william.nordhaus@yale.edu
OI GUEYE, Mamadou/0009-0004-4617-5612
FU US National Science Foundation [GEO-1240507]; US Department of Energy
   [DE-SC0005171-001]; Directorate For Geosciences [1240507] Funding
   Source: National Science Foundation
FX The research reported here was supported by the US National Science
   Foundation Award GEO-1240507 and the US Department of Energy Award
   DE-SC0005171-001.
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   Tol RSJ, 2009, J ECON PERSPECT, V23, P29, DOI 10.1257/jep.23.2.29
NR 15
TC 825
Z9 1102
U1 24
U2 460
PU NATL ACAD SCIENCES
PI WASHINGTON
PA 2101 CONSTITUTION AVE NW, WASHINGTON, DC 20418 USA
SN 0027-8424
EI 1091-6490
J9 P NATL ACAD SCI USA
JI Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U. S. A.
PD FEB 14
PY 2017
VL 114
IS 7
BP 1518
EP 1523
DI 10.1073/pnas.1609244114
PG 6
WC Multidisciplinary Sciences
WE Science Citation Index Expanded (SCI-EXPANDED); Social Science Citation Index (SSCI)
SC Science & Technology - Other Topics
GA EK5TR
UT WOS:000393989300050
PM 28143934
OA Green Submitted, hybrid
HC Y
HP N
DA 2026-06-14
ER

PT J
AU Mathias, JD
   Anderies, JM
   Janssen, MA
AF Mathias, Jean-Denis
   Anderies, John M.
   Janssen, Marco A.
TI On our rapidly shrinking capacity to comply with the planetary
   boundaries on climate change
SO SCIENTIFIC REPORTS
LA English
DT Article
ID CARBON-DIOXIDE CAPTURE; SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT; VIABILITY THEORY; CO2
   EMISSIONS; CHANGE POLICY; SCENARIOS; REMOVAL; STORAGE; COSTS
AB The planetary boundary framework constitutes an opportunity for decision makers to define climate policy through the lens of adaptive governance. Here, we use the DICE model to analyze the set of adaptive climate policies that comply with the two planetary boundaries related to climate change: (1) staying below a CO2 concentration of 550 ppm until 2100 and (2) returning to 350 ppm in 2100. Our results enable decision makers to assess the following milestones: (1) a minimum of 33% reduction of CO2 emissions by 2055 in order to stay below 550 ppm by 2100 (this milestone goes up to 46% in the case of delayed policies); and (2) carbon neutrality and the effective implementation of innovative geoengineering technologies (10% negative emissions) before 2060 in order to return to 350 ppm in 2100, under the assumption of getting out of the baseline scenario without delay. Finally, we emphasize the need to use adaptive path-based approach instead of single point target for climate policy design.
C1 [Mathias, Jean-Denis] IRSTEA, UR LISC, 9 Ave Landais, F-63170 Aubiere, France.
   [Mathias, Jean-Denis; Anderies, John M.; Janssen, Marco A.] Arizona State Univ, Sch Sustainabil, Tempe, AZ 85287 USA.
   [Anderies, John M.] Arizona State Univ, Sch Human Evolut & Social Change, Tempe, AZ USA.
   [Anderies, John M.; Janssen, Marco A.] Arizona State Univ, Ctr Behav Inst & Environm, Tempe, AZ USA.
C3 INRAE; Arizona State University; Arizona State University-Tempe; Arizona
   State University; Arizona State University-Tempe; Arizona State
   University; Arizona State University-Tempe
RP Mathias, JD (corresponding author), IRSTEA, UR LISC, 9 Ave Landais, F-63170 Aubiere, France.; Mathias, JD (corresponding author), Arizona State Univ, Sch Sustainabil, Tempe, AZ 85287 USA.
EM jean-denis.mathias@irstea.fr
RI Mathias, Jean-Denis/R-5391-2016
OI Mathias, Jean-Denis/0000-0002-6172-9079
FU RIPS project (NSF Award Search) [1441352]; National Research Institute
   of Science and Technology for Environment and Agriculture (France);
   French National Research Agency (project VIRGO) [ANR-16-CE03-0003-01];
   Emerging Frontiers & Multidisciplinary Activities; Directorate For
   Engineering [1441352] Funding Source: National Science Foundation
FX This work was supported by a grant from RIPS project (NSF Award Search:
   Award# 1441352), a grant from the National Research Institute of Science
   and Technology for Environment and Agriculture (France) and a grant from
   the French National Research Agency (project VIRGO, ANR-16-CE03-0003-01
   grant).
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NR 55
TC 27
Z9 31
U1 0
U2 41
PU NATURE PORTFOLIO
PI BERLIN
PA HEIDELBERGER PLATZ 3, BERLIN, 14197, GERMANY
SN 2045-2322
J9 SCI REP-UK
JI Sci Rep
PD FEB 7
PY 2017
VL 7
AR 42061
DI 10.1038/srep42061
PG 9
WC Multidisciplinary Sciences
WE Science Citation Index Expanded (SCI-EXPANDED); Social Science Citation Index (SSCI)
SC Science & Technology - Other Topics
GA EJ8FV
UT WOS:000393461600001
PM 28169336
OA Green Submitted, gold
DA 2026-06-14
ER

PT J
AU González-Eguino, M
   Neumann, MB
   Arto, I
   Capellán-Perez, I
   Faria, SH
AF Gonzalez-Eguino, Mikel
   Neumann, Marc B.
   Arto, Inaki
   Capellan-Perez, Inigo
   Faria, Sergio H.
TI Mitigation implications of an ice-free summer in the Arctic Ocean
SO EARTHS FUTURE
LA English
DT Article
DE Sea-ice-albedo feedback; Arctic; Mitigation; Integrated Assessment;
   Abrupt; Rapid Climate Change; Social Sciences
ID SEA-ICE; CLIMATE-CHANGE; TEMPERATURE; ALBEDO; FUTURE; SENSITIVITY;
   ECONOMICS; MODELS
AB The rapid loss of sea ice in the Arctic is one of the most striking manifestations of climate change. As sea ice melts, more open water is exposed to solar radiation, absorbing heat and generating a sea-ice-albedo feedback that reinforces Arctic warming. Recent studies stress the significance of this feedback mechanism and suggest that ice-free summer conditions in the Arctic Ocean may occur faster than previously expected, even under low-emissions pathways. Here we use an integrated assessment model to explore the implications of a potentially rapid sea-ice-loss process. We consider a scenario leading to a full month free of sea ice in September 2050, followed by three potential trajectories afterward: partial recovery, stabilization, and continued loss of sea ice. We analyze how these scenarios affect the efforts to keep global temperature increase below 2 degrees C. Our results show that sea-ice melting in the Arctic requires more stringent mitigation efforts globally. We find that global CO2 emissions would need to reach zero levels 5-15 years earlier and that the carbon budget would need to be reduced by 20%-51% to offset this additional source of warming. The extra mitigation effort would imply an 18%-59% higher mitigation cost to society. Our results also show that to achieve the 1.5 degrees C target in the presence of ice-free summers negative emissions would be needed. This study highlights the need for a better understanding of how the rapid changes observed in the Arctic may impact our society.
C1 [Gonzalez-Eguino, Mikel; Neumann, Marc B.; Arto, Inaki; Faria, Sergio H.] Basque Ctr Climate Change, Leioa, Spain.
   [Gonzalez-Eguino, Mikel; Arto, Inaki; Capellan-Perez, Inigo] Univ Basque Country, Dept Fdn Econ Anal 1, UPV EHU, Bilbao, Spain.
   [Neumann, Marc B.; Faria, Sergio H.] Basque Fdn Sci, Ikerbasque, Bilbao, Spain.
   [Capellan-Perez, Inigo] Univ Valladolid, Res Grp Energy Econ & Syst Dynam GEEDS, Valladolid, Spain.
C3 Basque Centre for Climate Change (BC3); University of Basque Country;
   Basque Foundation for Science; Universidad de Valladolid
RP González-Eguino, M (corresponding author), Basque Ctr Climate Change, Leioa, Spain.; González-Eguino, M (corresponding author), Univ Basque Country, Dept Fdn Econ Anal 1, UPV EHU, Bilbao, Spain.
EM mikel.gonzalez@bc3research.org
RI Capellán-Pérez, Iñigo/H-6069-2015; Faria, Sérgio Henrique/K-9454-2013;
   González-Eguino, Mikel/M-6057-2013; Neumann, Marc B/B-5553-2008
OI Capellán-Pérez, Iñigo/0000-0002-3098-8027; Faria, Sérgio
   Henrique/0000-0002-8825-7518; González-Eguino,
   Mikel/0000-0002-0033-9202; Neumann, Marc B/0000-0002-4801-3279
FU European Union [642260]; Ministry of Economy and Competitiveness of
   Spain [ECO2015-68023]; Basque Government [IT-799-13]; Ramon y Cajal
   Research Fellowship of the Ministry of Economy and Competitiveness of
   Spain [RYC-2012-12167, RYC-2013-13628]
FX The authors thank Paul Hezel, Anthony Patt, and three anonymous
   reviewers for valuable comments. This study received funding from the
   European Union's Horizon 2020 research and innovation program under
   grant agreement No 642260 (TRANSrisk project). Mikel Gonzalez-Eguino and
   Inaki Arto acknowledge financial support from the Ministry of Economy
   and Competitiveness of Spain (ECO2015-68023) and the Basque Government
   (IT-799-13). Marc B. Neumann (RYC-2013-13628) and Sergio H. Faria
   (RYC-2012-12167) acknowledge financial support from the Ramon y Cajal
   Research Fellowship of the Ministry of Economy and Competitiveness of
   Spain. The authors declare that there are no conflicts of interest. All
   data and model outputs of this article are available upon request to
   Mikel Gonzalez-Eguino (mikel.gonzalez@bc3research.org).
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NR 54
TC 5
Z9 9
U1 0
U2 31
PU AMER GEOPHYSICAL UNION
PI WASHINGTON
PA 2000 FLORIDA AVE NW, WASHINGTON, DC 20009 USA
EI 2328-4277
J9 EARTHS FUTURE
JI Earth Future
PD JAN
PY 2017
VL 5
IS 1
BP 59
EP 66
DI 10.1002/2016EF000429
PG 8
WC Environmental Sciences; Geosciences, Multidisciplinary; Meteorology &
   Atmospheric Sciences
WE Science Citation Index Expanded (SCI-EXPANDED)
SC Environmental Sciences & Ecology; Geology; Meteorology & Atmospheric
   Sciences
GA EM0IK
UT WOS:000395001800006
OA Green Submitted, gold
DA 2026-06-14
ER

PT C
AU Hafeez, S
   Weller, SR
   Kellett, CM
AF Hafeez, Salman
   Weller, Steven R.
   Kellett, Christopher M.
TI Impact of Climate Model Parametric Uncertainty in an MPC Implementation
   of the DICE Integrated Assessment Model
SO IFAC PAPERSONLINE
LA English
DT Proceedings Paper
CT 20th World Congress of the International-Federation-of-Automatic-Control
   (IFAC)
CY JUL 09-14, 2017
CL Toulouse, FRANCE
SP Int Federat Automat Control, Continental Automot, Occitanie Reg, Toulouse Metropole, CNES, Univ Toulouse III, Paul Sabatier, Inria, CNRS, OPTITRACK, MDPI, ISAE Supaero, iCODE, EECI, Int Journal Automat & Comp, IEEE CAA Journal Automatica Sinica, Moveo
DE Control in economics; Climate change; Economic models
ID SOCIAL COST; OPTIMIZATION; CARBON
AB Integrated assessment models (IAMs) are a key tool in studying the interdependence of the global economy and the climate system. For example, the dollar value of carbon dioxide emissions due to anthropogenic climate damages, known as the social cost of carbon dioxide (SC-CO2), can be computed via the widely used DICE (Dynamic Integrated model of Climate and the Economy) JAM by solving an open-loop optimal control problem. The results of such an open-loop decision-making strategy, however, do not fully reflect the impacts of uncertainty in the dynamic response of the global climatic system to radiative forcing. In this paper, we propose an implementation of the DICE JAM based on model predictive control (MPC). This MPC-based approach draws a clear distinction between the climate model used by DICE for mitigation planning purposes, and the "true" global climate herein captured by a low-order emulation of a model drawn from a state-of-the-art climate model ensemble (CMIP5, the fifth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project). The closed-loop control methodology in this paper thereby quantifies the impact of parametric climate model uncertainty (plant model mismatch) on estimates of the SC-CO2 obtained from DICE. (C) 2017, IFAC (International Federation of Automatic Control) Hosting by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
C1 [Hafeez, Salman; Weller, Steven R.; Kellett, Christopher M.] Univ Newcastle, Sch Elect Engn & Comp, Callaghan, NSW 2308, Australia.
C3 University of Newcastle
RP Hafeez, S (corresponding author), Univ Newcastle, Sch Elect Engn & Comp, Callaghan, NSW 2308, Australia.
EM salman.hafeez@uon.edu.au; steven.weller@newcastle.edu.au;
   chris.kellett@newcastle.edu.au
RI Kellett, Christopher/C-1815-2008
OI Kellett, Christopher/0000-0002-8309-6807
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NR 28
TC 2
Z9 2
U1 0
U2 4
PU ELSEVIER
PI AMSTERDAM
PA RADARWEG 29, 1043 NX AMSTERDAM, NETHERLANDS
SN 2405-8963
J9 IFAC PAPERSONLINE
JI IFAC PAPERSONLINE
PY 2017
VL 50
IS 1
BP 959
EP 965
DI 10.1016/j.ifacol.2017.08.169
PG 7
WC Automation & Control Systems
WE Conference Proceedings Citation Index - Science (CPCI-S)
SC Automation & Control Systems
GA FU4TJ
UT WOS:000423845200157
OA gold
DA 2026-06-14
ER

PT J
AU Heutel, G
   Moreno-Cruz, J
   Shayegh, S
AF Heutel, Garth
   Moreno-Cruz, Juan
   Shayegh, Soheil
TI Climate tipping points and solar geoengineering
SO JOURNAL OF ECONOMIC BEHAVIOR & ORGANIZATION
LA English
DT Article
DE Solar geoengineering; Climate tipping points; Climate policy
ID ECONOMICS; POLICY; CIRCULATION
AB We study optimal climate policy in the presence of climate tipping points and solar geo-engineering. Solar geoengineering reduces temperatures without reducing greenhouse gas emissions. Climate tipping points are irreversible and uncertain events that can alter the dynamics of the climate system. We analyze three different rules related to the availability of solar geoengineering, and we model three distinct types of tipping points. Before reaching the tipping point, the introduction of solar geoengineering reduces the amount of mitigation, lowers temperatures and increases carbon concentrations. The capacity of solar geoengineering to deal with climate damages depends on the type of tipping point. Solar geoengineering is most effective at dealing with tipping points that affect the responsiveness of temperature to carbon, and it is least effective at dealing with tipping points that cause direct economic losses. (C) 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
C1 [Heutel, Garth] Georgia State Univ, Dept Econ, Atlanta, GA 30303 USA.
   [Moreno-Cruz, Juan] Georgia Inst Technol, Sch Econ, Atlanta, GA 30332 USA.
   [Shayegh, Soheil] Carnegie Inst Sci, Dept Global Ecol, Stanford, CA USA.
C3 University System of Georgia; Georgia State University; University
   System of Georgia; Georgia Institute of Technology; Carnegie Institution
   for Science
RP Moreno-Cruz, J (corresponding author), Georgia Inst Technol, Sch Econ, Atlanta, GA 30332 USA.
EM gheutel@gsu.edu; morenocruz@gatech.edu; sshayegh@carnegiescience.edu
RI ; Shayegh, Soheil/I-4109-2014
OI Moreno-Cruz, Juan/0000-0003-3707-142X; Shayegh,
   Soheil/0000-0002-8960-8244
FU Ivan Allen College of Liberal Arts
FX We thank Derek Lemoine and seminar participants at Tennessee, Stanford,
   Harvard, and the Southern Economic Association annual meeting for
   comments. This research was partly funded by the an SRG-A from the Ivan
   Allen College of Liberal Arts.
CR [Anonymous], 21355 NBER
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NR 37
TC 28
Z9 39
U1 0
U2 81
PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE BV
PI AMSTERDAM
PA PO BOX 211, 1000 AE AMSTERDAM, NETHERLANDS
SN 0167-2681
EI 1879-1751
J9 J ECON BEHAV ORGAN
JI J. Econ. Behav. Organ.
PD DEC
PY 2016
VL 132
SI SI
BP 19
EP 45
DI 10.1016/j.jebo.2016.07.002
PN B
PG 27
WC Economics
WE Social Science Citation Index (SSCI)
SC Business & Economics
GA EG1XC
UT WOS:000390826600003
DA 2026-06-14
ER

PT J
AU Yang, S
   Dong, W
   Chou, J
   Feng, J
   Wei, Z
   Guo, Y
   Wen, X
   Wei, T
   Tian, D
   Zhu, X
   Yang, Z
AF Yang, Shili
   Dong, Wenjie
   Chou, Jieming
   Feng, Jinming
   Wei, Zhigang
   Guo, Yan
   Wen, Xiaohang
   Wei, Ting
   Tian, Di
   Zhu, Xian
   Yang, Zhiyong
TI Global warming projections using the human-earth system model
   BNU-HESM1.0
SO SCIENCE BULLETIN
LA English
DT Article
DE Coupled earth system model; Global change; Climate projection; Economic
   dimension
ID CARBON-CYCLE MODELS; ATMOSPHERE-OCEAN; CLIMATE-CHANGE; SIMPLER MODEL;
   CMIP5
AB Future climate change is usually projected by coupled earth system models under specific emission scenarios designed by integrated assessment models (IAMs), and this offline approach means there is no interaction between the coupled earth system models and the IAMs. This paper introduces a new method to design possible future emission scenarios and corresponding climate change, in which a simple economic and climate damage component is added to the coupled earth system model of Beijing Normal University (BNU-ESM). With the growth of population and technological expertise and the declining emission-to-output ratio described in the Dynamic Integrated Climate-Economy model, the projected carbon emission is 13.7 Gt C, resulting in a 2.4 degrees C warming by the end of the twenty-first century (2080-2099) compared with 1980-1999. This paper also suggests the importance of the land and ocean carbon cycle in determining the CO2 concentration in the atmosphere. It is hoped that in the near future the next generation of coupled earth system models that include both the natural system and the social dimension will be developed.
C1 [Chou, Jieming; Wei, Zhigang; Guo, Yan; Zhu, Xian; Yang, Zhiyong] Beijing Normal Univ, State Key Lab Earth Surface Processes & Resource, Beijing 100875, Peoples R China.
   Beijing Normal Univ, Sch Business, Beijing 100875, Peoples R China.
   [Yang, Shili] Beijing Normal Univ, Future Earth Res Inst, Zhuhai Joint Innovat Ctr Climate Environm Ecosyst, Zhuhai, Beijing, Peoples R China.
   [Dong, Wenjie] Sun Yat Sen Univ, Atmospher Sci Sch, Guangzhou 510000, Peoples R China.
   [Feng, Jinming] Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Atmospher Phys, Key Lab Reg Climate Environm E Asia, Beijing 100029, Peoples R China.
   [Wen, Xiaohang] Chengdu Univ Informat Technol, Coll Atmospher Sci, Plateau Atmosphere & Environm Key Lab Sichuan Pro, Chengdu 610225, Peoples R China.
   [Wei, Ting] Chinese Acad Meteorol Sci, Beijing 100081, Peoples R China.
   [Tian, Di] Second Inst Oceanog, State Key Lab Satellite Ocean Environm Dynam, Hangzhou 310012, Peoples R China.
   [Yang, Shili; Chou, Jieming; Wei, Zhigang; Guo, Yan; Zhu, Xian; Yang, Zhiyong] Beijing Normal Univ, State Key Lab Earth Surface Proc & Resource Ecol, Beijing 100875, Peoples R China.
   [Yang, Shili] Beijing Normal Univ, Sch Business, Beijing 100875, Peoples R China.
   [Yang, Shili; Dong, Wenjie] Beijing Normal Univ, Zhuhai Joint Innovat Ctr Climate Environm Ecosyst, Future Earth Res Inst, Zhuhai 519087, Peoples R China.
   [Dong, Wenjie] Sun Yat Sen Univ, Atmospher Sci Sch, Guangzhou 510000, Guangdong, Peoples R China.
   [Feng, Jinming] Chinese Acad Sci, Key Lab Reg Climate Environm East Asia, Inst Atmospher Phys, Beijing 100029, Peoples R China.
   [Wen, Xiaohang] Chengdu Univ Informat Technol, Plateau Atmosphere & Environm Key Lab Sichuan Pro, Coll Atmospher Sci, Chengdu 610225, Peoples R China.
   [Wei, Ting] Chinese Acad Meteorol Sci, Beijing 100081, Peoples R China.
   [Tian, Di] Second Inst Oceanog, State Key Lab Satellite Ocean Environm Dynam, Hangzhou 310012, Zhejiang, Peoples R China.
C3 Beijing Normal University; Beijing Normal University; Beijing Normal
   University; Beijing Normal University Zhuhai; Sun Yat Sen University;
   Chinese Academy of Sciences; Institute of Atmospheric Physics, CAS;
   Chengdu University of Information Technology; China Meteorological
   Administration; Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences (CAMS);
   Ministry of Natural Resources of the People's Republic of China; Second
   Institute of Oceanography, Ministry of Natural Resources; Beijing Normal
   University; Beijing Normal University; Beijing Normal University;
   Beijing Normal University Zhuhai; Sun Yat Sen University; Chinese
   Academy of Sciences; Institute of Atmospheric Physics, CAS; Chengdu
   University of Information Technology; China Meteorological
   Administration; Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences (CAMS);
   Ministry of Natural Resources of the People's Republic of China; Second
   Institute of Oceanography, Ministry of Natural Resources
RP Dong, W (corresponding author), Beijing Normal Univ, Zhuhai Joint Innovat Ctr Climate Environm Ecosyst, Future Earth Res Inst, Zhuhai 519087, Peoples R China.
EM dongwj@bnu.edu.cn
RI Dong, Wenjie/F-4314-2012
OI Dong, Wenjie/0000-0002-9635-6292
FU National Natural Science Foundation of China [41605036, 41305053];
   National Key Research and Development Program of China [2016YFA0602703];
   National-Level Major Cultivation Project of Guangdong Province
   [2014GKXM058]; Open Project of the State Key Laboratory of Cryospheric
   Science [SKLCS-OP-2016-09]
FX This work was supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of
   China (41605036 and 41305053), the National Key Research and Development
   Program of China (2016YFA0602703), the National-Level Major Cultivation
   Project of Guangdong Province (2014GKXM058), and the Open Project of the
   State Key Laboratory of Cryospheric Science (SKLCS-OP-2016-09).
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NR 27
TC 16
Z9 20
U1 2
U2 48
PU ELSEVIER
PI AMSTERDAM
PA RADARWEG 29, 1043 NX AMSTERDAM, NETHERLANDS
SN 2095-9273
EI 2095-9281
J9 SCI BULL
JI Sci. Bull.
PD DEC
PY 2016
VL 61
IS 23
BP 1833
EP 1838
DI 10.1007/s11434-016-1176-x
PG 6
WC Multidisciplinary Sciences
WE Science Citation Index Expanded (SCI-EXPANDED)
SC Science & Technology - Other Topics
GA EF0HT
UT WOS:000390007200012
DA 2026-06-14
ER

PT J
AU Dietz, S
   Bowen, A
   Dixon, C
   Gradwell, P
AF Dietz, Simon
   Bowen, Alex
   Dixon, Charlie
   Gradwell, Philip
TI 'Climate value at risk' of global financial assets
SO NATURE CLIMATE CHANGE
LA English
DT Article
ID TEMPERATURE
AB Investors and financial regulators are increasingly aware of climate-change risks. So far, most of the attention has fallen on whether controls on carbon emissions will strand the assets of fossil-fuel companies". However, it is no less important to ask, what might be the impact of climate change itself on asset values? Here we show how a leading integrated assessment model can be used to estimate the impact of twenty-first-century climate change on the present market value of global financial assets. We find that the expected 'climate value at risk' (climate VaR) of global financial assets today is 1.8% along a business-as-usual emissions path. Taking a representative estimate of global financial assets, this amounts to US$2.5 trillion. However, much of the risk is in the tail. For example, the 99th percentile climate VaR is 16.9%, or US$24.2 trillion. These estimates would constitute a substantial write-down in the fundamental value of financial assets. Cutting emissions to limit warming to no more than 2 degrees C reduces the climate VaR by an expected 0.6 percentage points, and the 99th percentile reduction is 7.7 percentage points. Including mitigation costs, the present value of global financial assets is an expected 0.2% higher when warming is limited to no more than 2 degrees C, compared with business as usual. The 99th percentile is 9.1% higher. Limiting warming to no more than 2 degrees C makes financial sense to risk-neutral investors and even more so to the risk averse.
C1 [Dietz, Simon; Bowen, Alex] Univ London London Sch Econ & Polit Sci, ESRC Ctr Climate Change Econ & Policy, Houghton St, London WC2A 2AE, England.
   [Dietz, Simon; Bowen, Alex] Univ London London Sch Econ & Polit Sci, Grantham Res Inst Climate Change & Environm, Houghton St, London WC2A 2AE, England.
   [Dietz, Simon; Dixon, Charlie; Gradwell, Philip] Vivid Econ Ltd, Evergreen House North,160 Euston Rd,Grafton Pl, London NW1 2DX, England.
C3 UK Research & Innovation (UKRI); Economic & Social Research Council
   (ESRC); University of London; London School Economics & Political
   Science; University of London; London School Economics & Political
   Science
RP Dietz, S (corresponding author), Univ London London Sch Econ & Polit Sci, ESRC Ctr Climate Change Econ & Policy, Houghton St, London WC2A 2AE, England.; Dietz, S (corresponding author), Univ London London Sch Econ & Polit Sci, Grantham Res Inst Climate Change & Environm, Houghton St, London WC2A 2AE, England.; Dietz, S (corresponding author), Vivid Econ Ltd, Evergreen House North,160 Euston Rd,Grafton Pl, London NW1 2DX, England.
EM s.dietz@lse.ac.uk
RI Dietz, Simon/AAX-9362-2020
OI Dietz, Simon/0000-0001-5002-018X
FU UK's Economic and Social Research Council (ESRC); Grantham Foundation
   for the Protection of the Environment; Economic and Social Research
   Council [ES/K006576/1] Funding Source: researchfish; ESRC [ES/K006576/1]
   Funding Source: UKRI
FX S.D. and A.B. would like to acknowledge the support of the UK's Economic
   and Social Research Council (ESRC), and the Grantham Foundation for the
   Protection of the Environment. We are grateful for the invaluable advice
   of H. Covington and S. Waygood.
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NR 31
TC 403
Z9 512
U1 17
U2 259
PU NATURE PORTFOLIO
PI BERLIN
PA HEIDELBERGER PLATZ 3, BERLIN, 14197, GERMANY
SN 1758-678X
EI 1758-6798
J9 NAT CLIM CHANGE
JI Nat. Clim. Chang.
PD JUL
PY 2016
VL 6
IS 7
BP 676
EP 679
DI 10.1038/NCLIMATE2972
PG 4
WC Environmental Sciences; Environmental Studies; Meteorology & Atmospheric
   Sciences
WE Science Citation Index Expanded (SCI-EXPANDED); Social Science Citation Index (SSCI)
SC Environmental Sciences & Ecology; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
GA DP6LP
UT WOS:000378608900016
OA Green Submitted
DA 2026-06-14
ER

PT J
AU Grigoroudis, E
   Kanellos, FD
   Kouikoglou, VS
   Phillis, YA
AF Grigoroudis, Evangelos
   Kanellos, Fotis D.
   Kouikoglou, Vassilis S.
   Phillis, Yannis A.
TI Optimal abatement policies and related behavioral aspects of climate
   change
SO ENVIRONMENTAL DEVELOPMENT
LA English
DT Article
DE Climate change; Emissions abatement; Integrated assessment model; Public
   opinion; Human behavior
AB Climate change is one of the most urgent problems facing the earth. Its facets are multiple: environmental, economic, and social, and its consequences could become dire if drastic and concerted action is not taken immediately. This paper uses existing economic and physical models to devise CO2 emission trajectories for the whole world that optimize a neo-classical welfare function as well as an alternative function inspired by research on subjective well-being, while keeping temperature rise at 2 degrees C above preindustrial levels. These trajectories are then linked with certain behavioral traits that are strongly connected with the attitudes that would realize such policies. It is demonstrated that the 2 degrees C target is still feasible but the corresponding behavioral changes are quite demanding. Difficult as the problem might be, it is encouraging that humanity can still resolve it if no time is wasted and political action is taken immediately. (C) 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
C1 [Grigoroudis, Evangelos; Kanellos, Fotis D.; Kouikoglou, Vassilis S.; Phillis, Yannis A.] Tech Univ Crete, Sch Prod Engn & Management, Khania 73100, Greece.
C3 Technical University of Crete
RP Phillis, YA (corresponding author), Tech Univ Crete, Sch Prod Engn & Management, Khania 73100, Greece.
EM phillis@dpem.tuc.gr
RI Grigoroudis, Evangelos/D-7716-2013; Kouikoglou, Vassilis/AGE-0853-2022;
   Kanellos, Fotios/NXY-3838-2025
OI Grigoroudis, Evangelos/0000-0001-8613-9350; Kouikoglou,
   Vassilis/0000-0002-4092-8917; Kanellos, Fotios/0000-0003-0433-1395
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NR 27
TC 4
Z9 4
U1 0
U2 7
PU ELSEVIER
PI AMSTERDAM
PA RADARWEG 29, 1043 NX AMSTERDAM, NETHERLANDS
SN 2211-4645
EI 2211-4653
J9 ENVIRON DEV
JI Environ. Dev.
PD JUL
PY 2016
VL 19
BP 10
EP 22
DI 10.1016/j.envdev.7016.04.002
PG 13
WC Environmental Sciences
WE Science Citation Index Expanded (SCI-EXPANDED)
SC Environmental Sciences & Ecology
GA DT6WR
UT WOS:000381625800002
DA 2026-06-14
ER

PT J
AU Cai, YY
   Lenton, TM
   Lontzek, TS
AF Cai, Yongyang
   Lenton, Timothy M.
   Lontzek, Thomas S.
TI Risk of multiple interacting tipping points should encourage rapid
   CO2 emission reduction
SO NATURE CLIMATE CHANGE
LA English
DT Article
ID SEA-LEVEL RISE; INTEGRATED ASSESSMENT; SOCIAL COST; ICE SHEETS; CLIMATE;
   GREENLAND; ECONOMICS; IMPACT; POLICY; SUBSTITUTION
AB Evidence suggests that several elements of the climate system could be tipped into a different state by global warming, causing irreversible economic damages. To address their policy implications, we incorporated five interacting climate tipping points into a stochastic-dynamic integrated assessment model, calibrating their likelihoods and interactions on results from an existing expert elicitation. Here we show that combining realistic assumptions about policymakers' preferences under uncertainty, with the prospect of multiple future interacting climate tipping points, increases the present social cost of carbon in the model nearly eightfold from US$15 per tCO(2) to US$116 per tCO(2). Furthermore, passing some tipping points increases the likelihood of other tipping points occurring to such an extent that it abruptly increases the social cost of carbon. The corresponding optimal policy involves an immediate, massive effort to control CO2 emissions, which are stopped by mid-century, leading to climate stabilization at <1.5 degrees C above pre-industrial levels.
C1 [Cai, Yongyang] Stanford Univ, Hoover Inst, Stanford, CA 94305 USA.
   [Cai, Yongyang] Univ Chicago, Becker Friedman Inst, Chicago, IL 60636 USA.
   [Lenton, Timothy M.] Univ Exeter, Coll Life & Environm Sci, Earth Syst Sci, Exeter EX4 4QE, Devon, England.
   [Lontzek, Thomas S.] Univ Zurich, Dept Business Adm, CH-8008 Zurich, Switzerland.
C3 Stanford University; University of Chicago; University of Exeter;
   University of Zurich
RP Lenton, TM (corresponding author), Univ Exeter, Coll Life & Environm Sci, Earth Syst Sci, Exeter EX4 4QE, Devon, England.; Lontzek, TS (corresponding author), Univ Zurich, Dept Business Adm, CH-8008 Zurich, Switzerland.
EM t.m.lenton@exeter.ac.uk; lontzek@gmail.com
RI ; Lenton, Tim/X-1893-2018
OI Lontzek, Thomas/0000-0002-4789-5820; 
FU NSF [SES-0951576, SES-146364, OCI-0725070, ACI-1238993]; Zuricher
   Universitatsverein; University of Zurich; Ecosciencia Foundation; Royal
   Society; European Commission [ENV.2013.6.1-3]
FX We thank K. L. Judd and participants of the 2015 Annual Conference of
   the European Association of Environmental and Resource Economics for
   comments. Y.C. was supported by NSF (SES-0951576 and SES-146364). T.S.L.
   was supported by the Zuricher Universitatsverein, the University of
   Zurich, and the Ecosciencia Foundation. T.M.L. teas supported by a Royal
   Society Wolfson Research Merit Award and the European Commission HELIX
   project (ENV.2013.6.1-3). Supercomputer support teas provided by Blue
   Waters (NSF awards OCI-0725070 and ACI-1238993, and the state of
   Illinois).
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NR 60
TC 174
Z9 209
U1 4
U2 135
PU NATURE PORTFOLIO
PI BERLIN
PA HEIDELBERGER PLATZ 3, BERLIN, 14197, GERMANY
SN 1758-678X
EI 1758-6798
J9 NAT CLIM CHANGE
JI Nat. Clim. Chang.
PD MAY
PY 2016
VL 6
IS 5
BP 520
EP +
DI 10.1038/NCLIMATE2964
PG 9
WC Environmental Sciences; Environmental Studies; Meteorology & Atmospheric
   Sciences
WE Science Citation Index Expanded (SCI-EXPANDED); Social Science Citation Index (SSCI)
SC Environmental Sciences & Ecology; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
GA DK7SE
UT WOS:000375125200022
OA Green Submitted
DA 2026-06-14
ER

PT J
AU De Cian, E
   Sferra, F
   Tavoni, M
AF De Cian, Enrica
   Sferra, Fabio
   Tavoni, Massimo
TI The influence of economic growth, population, and fossil fuel scarcity
   on energy investments
SO CLIMATIC CHANGE
LA English
DT Article
ID INDUCED INNOVATION
AB This paper examines the dynamics of energy investments and clean energy Research and Development (R&D) using a scenario-based modeling approach. Starting from the global scenarios proposed in the RoSE model ensemble experiment, we analyze the dynamics of investments under different assumptions regarding economic and population growth as well as availability of fossil fuel resources, in the absence of a climate policy. Our analysis indicates that economic growth and the speed of income convergence across countries matters for improvements in energy efficiency, both via dedicated R&D investments but mostly through capital-energy substitution. In contrast, fossil fuel prices, by changing the relative competitiveness of energy sources, create an economic opportunity for radical innovation in the energy sector. Indeed, our results suggest that fossil fuel availability is the key driver of investments in low carbon energy innovation. However, this innovation, by itself, is not sufficient to induce emission reductions compatible with climate stabilization objectives.
C1 [De Cian, Enrica] FEEM, Venice, Italy.
   [De Cian, Enrica] Euromediterranean Ctr Climate Change CMCC, Venice, Italy.
   [Sferra, Fabio; Tavoni, Massimo] FEEM, Milan, Italy.
   [Sferra, Fabio; Tavoni, Massimo] Euromediterranean Ctr Climate Change CMCC, Milan, Italy.
C3 Fondazione Mattei; Centro Euro-Mediterraneo sui Cambiamenti Climatici
   (CMCC); Fondazione Mattei; Centro Euro-Mediterraneo sui Cambiamenti
   Climatici (CMCC)
RP De Cian, E (corresponding author), FEEM, Venice, Italy.; De Cian, E (corresponding author), Euromediterranean Ctr Climate Change CMCC, Venice, Italy.
EM enrica.decian@feem.it
RI ; DE CIAN, Enrica/AAA-1237-2021
OI tavoni, massimo/0000-0001-5069-4707; DE CIAN, Enrica/0000-0001-7134-2540
FU Stiftung Mercator
FX This work was funded by Stiftung Mercator www.stiftung-mercator.de
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NR 26
TC 22
Z9 24
U1 0
U2 17
PU SPRINGER
PI DORDRECHT
PA VAN GODEWIJCKSTRAAT 30, 3311 GZ DORDRECHT, NETHERLANDS
SN 0165-0009
EI 1573-1480
J9 CLIMATIC CHANGE
JI Clim. Change
PD MAY
PY 2016
VL 136
IS 1
BP 39
EP 55
DI 10.1007/s10584-013-0902-5
PG 17
WC Environmental Sciences; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
WE Science Citation Index Expanded (SCI-EXPANDED); Social Science Citation Index (SSCI)
SC Environmental Sciences & Ecology; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
GA DL5MV
UT WOS:000375682100004
DA 2026-06-14
ER

PT J
AU Lemoine, D
   Traeger, CP
AF Lemoine, Derek
   Traeger, Christian P.
TI Economics of tipping the climate dominoes
SO NATURE CLIMATE CHANGE
LA English
DT Article
ID POLICY; POINTS; ICE; STABILITY; FUTURE; GROWTH
AB Greenhouse gas emissions can trigger irreversible regime shifts in the climate system, known as tipping points. Multiple tipping points affect each other's probability of occurrence, potentially causing a 'domino effect'. We analyse climate policy in the presence of a potential domino effect. We incorporate three different tipping points occurring at unknown thresholds into an integrated climate-economy model. The optimal emission policy considers all possible thresholds and the resulting interactions between tipping points, economic activity, and policy responses into the indefinite future. We quantify the cost of delaying optimal emission controls in the presence of uncertain tipping points and also the benefit of detecting when individual tipping points have been triggered. We show that the presence of these tipping points nearly doubles today's optimal carbon tax and reduces peak warming along the optimal path by approximately 1 degrees C. The presence of these tipping points increases the cost of delaying optimal policy until mid-century by nearly 150%.
C1 [Lemoine, Derek] Univ Arizona, Dept Econ, McClelland Hall 401, Tucson, AZ 85721 USA.
   [Traeger, Christian P.] Univ Calif Berkeley, Dept Agr & Resource Econ, 207 Giannini Hall 3310, Berkeley, CA 94720 USA.
   [Traeger, Christian P.] Univ Oslo, Dept Econ, Postbox 1095, N-0317 Oslo, Norway.
C3 University of Arizona; University of California System; University of
   California Berkeley; University of Oslo
RP Traeger, CP (corresponding author), Univ Calif Berkeley, Dept Agr & Resource Econ, 207 Giannini Hall 3310, Berkeley, CA 94720 USA.; Traeger, CP (corresponding author), Univ Oslo, Dept Econ, Postbox 1095, N-0317 Oslo, Norway.
EM traeger@berkeley.edu
OI Lemoine, Derek/0000-0002-1298-9472
FU National Science Foundation through the Network for Sustainable Climate
   Risk Management [GEO-1240507]; Directorate For Geosciences [1240507]
   Funding Source: National Science Foundation
FX C.P.T. gratefully acknowledges support by the National Science
   Foundation through the Network for Sustainable Climate Risk Management
   GEO-1240507.
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NR 44
TC 97
Z9 123
U1 7
U2 75
PU NATURE PUBLISHING GROUP
PI LONDON
PA MACMILLAN BUILDING, 4 CRINAN ST, LONDON N1 9XW, ENGLAND
SN 1758-678X
EI 1758-6798
J9 NAT CLIM CHANGE
JI Nat. Clim. Chang.
PD MAY
PY 2016
VL 6
IS 5
BP 514
EP +
DI 10.1038/NCLIMATE2902
PG 7
WC Environmental Sciences; Environmental Studies; Meteorology & Atmospheric
   Sciences
WE Science Citation Index Expanded (SCI-EXPANDED); Social Science Citation Index (SSCI)
SC Environmental Sciences & Ecology; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
GA DK7SE
UT WOS:000375125200021
DA 2026-06-14
ER

PT J
AU Garner, G
   Reed, P
   Keller, K
AF Garner, Gregory
   Reed, Patrick
   Keller, Klaus
TI Climate risk management requires explicit representation of societal
   trade-offs
SO CLIMATIC CHANGE
LA English
DT Article
ID POLICIES; CARBON; COST
AB Strategies for managing climate-change risks impact diverse stakeholder groups that possess potentially conflicting preferences. Basic physics and economics suggest that reconciling all of these preference conflicts may not be possible. Moreover, different climate risk management strategies can yield diverse and potentially severe impacts across different global stakeholders. These preference conflicts and their uncertain impacts require an explicit understanding of the trade-offs that emerge across different risk management strategies. Traditionally, integrated assessment models (IAMs) typically aggregate the stakeholders' preferences across the entire globe into a single, a priori defined utility function. This framing hides climate risk management trade-offs as well as the inherent stakeholder compromises implicit to the resulting single "optimal" expected utility solution. Here, we analyze a simple IAM to quantify and visualize the multidimensional trade-offs among four objectives representing global concerns: (i) global economic productivity, (ii) reliable temperature stabilization, (iii) climate damages, and (iv) abatement costs. We quantify and visualize the trade-offs across these objectives and demonstrate how a traditional optimal expected utility policy implicitly eliminates many relevant policy pathways. Explicit trade-off analysis provides a richer context for exploring conflicting global policy preferences and clarifies the implications of alternative climate risk mitigation policies to better inform negotiated compromises.
C1 [Garner, Gregory; Keller, Klaus] Penn State Univ, Earth & Environm Syst Inst, University Pk, PA 16803 USA.
   [Reed, Patrick] Cornell Univ, Sch Civil & Environm Engn, Ithaca, NY 14853 USA.
   [Keller, Klaus] Penn State Univ, Dept Geosci, University Pk, PA 16803 USA.
   [Keller, Klaus] Carnegie Mellon Univ, Dept Engn & Publ Policy, Pittsburgh, PA 15213 USA.
C3 Pennsylvania Commonwealth System of Higher Education (PCSHE);
   Pennsylvania State University; Pennsylvania State University -
   University Park; Cornell University; Pennsylvania Commonwealth System of
   Higher Education (PCSHE); Pennsylvania State University; Pennsylvania
   State University - University Park; Carnegie Mellon University
RP Garner, G (corresponding author), Penn State Univ, Earth & Environm Syst Inst, University Pk, PA 16803 USA.
EM ggg121@psu.edu
RI ; Reed, Patrick/E-4435-2014; /A-6742-2013
OI Garner, Gregory/0000-0001-7864-1535; Keller, Klaus/0000-0002-5451-8687; 
FU National Science Foundation (NSF) through the Network for Sustainable
   Climate Risk Management (SCRiM) under NSF [GEO-1240507]; Penn State
   Center for Climate Risk Management; Directorate For Geosciences
   [1240507] Funding Source: National Science Foundation; Division Of
   Mathematical Sciences; Direct For Mathematical & Physical Scien
   [1107046] Funding Source: National Science Foundation
FX We thank D. Hadka for his technical support with the Borg-MOEA. We also
   thank W. Nordhaus, D. Diaz, C. and B. Forest, N. Tuana, M. Adler, D.
   Anthoff, M. Oppenheimer, R. Lempert, V. Bosetti, and the anonymous
   reviewers for invaluable input. This work was partially supported by the
   National Science Foundation (NSF) through the Network for Sustainable
   Climate Risk Management (SCRiM) under NSF cooperative agreement
   GEO-1240507 and the Penn State Center for Climate Risk Management. Any
   opinions, findings, and conclusions or recommendations expressed in this
   material are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the
   views of the NSF.
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Z9 34
U1 0
U2 13
PU SPRINGER
PI DORDRECHT
PA VAN GODEWIJCKSTRAAT 30, 3311 GZ DORDRECHT, NETHERLANDS
SN 0165-0009
EI 1573-1480
J9 CLIMATIC CHANGE
JI Clim. Change
PD FEB
PY 2016
VL 134
IS 4
BP 713
EP 723
DI 10.1007/s10584-016-1607-3
PG 11
WC Environmental Sciences; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
WE Science Citation Index Expanded (SCI-EXPANDED); Social Science Citation Index (SSCI)
SC Environmental Sciences & Ecology; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
GA DE7HV
UT WOS:000370807500016
OA hybrid
DA 2026-06-14
ER

PT C
AU Hafeez, S
   Weller, SR
   Kellett, CM
AF Hafeez, Salman
   Weller, Steven R.
   Kellett, Christopher M.
GP IEEE
TI Transient climate response in the DICE integrated assessment model of
   climate-economy
SO 2016 AUSTRALIAN CONTROL CONFERENCE (AUCC)
LA English
DT Proceedings Paper
CT Australian Control Conference (AuCC)
CY NOV 03-04, 2016
CL Newcastle, AUSTRALIA
ID SOCIAL COST; CONSTRAINTS; CARBON; OCEAN
AB Integrated assessment models (IAMs) couple the interdependent dynamics of geophysical and economic systems. By solving an optimal control problem for a nonlinear, time-varying system, IAMs enable the determination of economically optimal pathways for emissions of greenhouse gases such as carbon dioxide (CO2). Central to any IAM is a climate model capturing the dynamic response of global surface temperature to changes in net downward radiative forcing due to the atmospheric accumulation of heat-trapping greenhouse gases. The transient climate response (TCR), defined as the temperature change at the time of CO2 doubling under a scenario in which CO2 concentrations increase by 1 % y r(-1), plays a central role in quantifying the economic impacts of climate change on policy-relevant timescales. In this paper, we propose an optimization-based methodology for computing the parameters of a climate model in such a way that the resulting model exhibits a specified TCR. The methodology developed in this paper targets the climate model parameterization employed in DICE (Dynamic Integrated model of Climate and the Economy), a widely-studied IAM for which TCR is only indirectly specified. Results reported herein enable policymakers using DICE to compute optimal CO2 emissions pathways which directly reflect the TCR of state-of-the-art climate models documented in the most recent (Fifth) Assessment Report (AR5) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC).
C1 [Hafeez, Salman; Weller, Steven R.; Kellett, Christopher M.] Univ Newcastle, Sch Elect Engn & Comp Sci, Callaghan, NSW 2308, Australia.
C3 University of Newcastle
RP Hafeez, S (corresponding author), Univ Newcastle, Sch Elect Engn & Comp Sci, Callaghan, NSW 2308, Australia.
EM salman.hafeez@uon.edu.au; steven.weller@newcastle.edu.au;
   chris.kellett@newcastle.edu.au
RI Kellett, Christopher/C-1815-2008
OI Kellett, Christopher/0000-0002-8309-6807
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NR 32
TC 4
Z9 4
U1 0
U2 8
PU IEEE
PI NEW YORK
PA 345 E 47TH ST, NEW YORK, NY 10017 USA
BN 978-1-9221-0790-9
PY 2016
BP 282
EP 287
PG 6
WC Automation & Control Systems
WE Conference Proceedings Citation Index - Science (CPCI-S)
SC Automation & Control Systems
GA BH5WB
UT WOS:000401523200053
DA 2026-06-14
ER

PT J
AU Yang, SL
   Dong, WJ
   Chou, JM
   Feng, JM
   Yan, XD
   Wei, ZG
   Yuan, WP
   Guo, Y
   Tang, YL
   Jiacong, HC
AF Yang Shili
   Dong Wenjie
   Chou Jieming
   Feng Jinming
   Yan Xiaodong
   Wei Zhigang
   Yuan Wenping
   Guo Yan
   Tang Yanli
   Hu Jiacong
TI A brief introduction to BNU-HESM1.0 and its earth surface temperature
   simulations
SO ADVANCES IN ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES
LA English
DT Article
DE economic model component; earth system model; human activity; global
   change
ID CLIMATE-CHANGE; CMIP5; CO2; MODELS
AB Integrated assessment models and coupled earth system models both have their limitations in understanding the interactions between human activity and the physical earth system. In this paper, a new human-earth system model, BNU-HESM1.0, constructed by combining the economic and climate damage components of the Dynamic Integrated Model of Climate Change and Economy to the BNU-ESM model, is introduced. The ability of BNU-HESM1.0 in simulating the global CO2 concentration and surface temperature is also evaluated. We find that, compared to observation, BNU-HESM1.0 underestimates the global CO2 concentration and its rising trend during 1965-2005, due to the uncertainty in the economic components. However, the surface temperature simulated by BNU-HESM1.0 is much closer to observation, resulting from the overestimates of surface temperature by the original BNU-ESM model. The uncertainty of BNU-ESM falls within the range of present earth system uncertainty, so it is the economic and climate damage component of BNU-HESM1.0 that needs to be improved through further study. However, the main purpose of this paper is to introduce a new approach to investigate the complex relationship between human activity and the earth system. It is hoped that it will inspire further ideas that prove valuable in guiding human activities appropriate for a sustainable future climate.
C1 [Yang Shili; Dong Wenjie; Chou Jieming; Yan Xiaodong; Wei Zhigang; Yuan Wenping; Guo Yan; Tang Yanli] Beijing Normal Univ, State Key Lab Earth Surface Proc & Resource Ecol, Beijing 100875, Peoples R China.
   [Yang Shili; Dong Wenjie; Chou Jieming; Yan Xiaodong; Wei Zhigang; Yuan Wenping; Guo Yan; Hu Jiacong] Beijing Normal Univ, Future Earth Res Inst, Zhuhai Joint Innovat Ctr Climate Environm Ecosyst, Zhuhai 519087, Peoples R China.
   [Feng Jinming] Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Atmospher Phys, Key Lab Reg Climate Environm East Asia, Beijing 100029, Peoples R China.
C3 Beijing Normal University; Beijing Normal University; Beijing Normal
   University Zhuhai; Chinese Academy of Sciences; Institute of Atmospheric
   Physics, CAS
RP Dong, WJ (corresponding author), Beijing Normal Univ, State Key Lab Earth Surface Proc & Resource Ecol, Beijing 100875, Peoples R China.
EM dongwj@bnu.edu.cn
RI Yuan, Wenping/HTM-1454-2023; Dong, Wenjie/F-4314-2012
OI Yan, Xiaodong/0000-0002-0774-9140; Dong, Wenjie/0000-0002-9635-6292
FU National Key Program for Global Change Research of China [2010CB950504];
   National Basic Research Program of China (973 Program) [2012CB95570001];
   national-level major cultivation project of Guangdong Province
   [2014GKXM058]
FX This work was funded by the National Key Program for Global Change
   Research of China (Grant No. 2010CB950504), the National Basic Research
   Program of China (973 Program) (Grant No. 2012CB95570001), and the
   national-level major cultivation project of Guangdong Province entitled:
   "The construction and application of coupled earth system and social
   economic models" (Grant No. 2014GKXM058).
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NR 29
TC 20
Z9 27
U1 2
U2 36
PU SCIENCE PRESS
PI BEIJING
PA 16 DONGHUANGCHENGGEN NORTH ST, BEIJING 100717, PEOPLES R CHINA
SN 0256-1530
EI 1861-9533
J9 ADV ATMOS SCI
JI Adv. Atmos. Sci.
PD DEC
PY 2015
VL 32
IS 12
BP 1683
EP 1688
DI 10.1007/s00376-015-5050-6
PG 6
WC Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
WE Science Citation Index Expanded (SCI-EXPANDED)
SC Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
GA CT8HH
UT WOS:000363055300011
DA 2026-06-14
ER

PT J
AU Lontzek, TS
   Cai, YY
   Judd, KL
   Lenton, TM
AF Lontzek, Thomas S.
   Cai, Yongyang
   Judd, Kenneth L.
   Lenton, Timothy M.
TI Stochastic integrated assessment of climate tipping points indicates the
   need for strict climate policy
SO NATURE CLIMATE CHANGE
LA English
DT Article
ID UNCERTAINTY; ECONOMICS; PROBABILITY; TARGETS; IMPACT
AB Perhaps the most 'dangerous' aspect of future climate change is the possibility that human activities will push parts of the climate system past tipping points, leading to irreversible impacts(1). The likelihood of such large-scale singular events(2) is expected to increase with global warming(1-3), but is fundamentally uncertain(4). A key question is how should the uncertainty surrounding tipping events(1,5) affect climate policy? We address this using a stochastic integrated assessment model(6), based on the widely used deterministic DICE model(7). The temperature-dependent likelihood of tipping is calibrated using expert opinions(3), which we find to be internally consistent. The irreversible impacts of tipping events are assumed to accumulate steadily over time (rather than instantaneously(8-11)), consistent with scientific understanding(1,5). Even with conservative assumptions about the rate and impacts of a stochastic tipping event, today's optimal carbon tax is increased by similar to 50%. For a plausibly rapid, high-impact tipping event, today's optimal carbon tax is increased by >200%. The additional carbon tax to delay climate tipping grows at only about half the rate of the baseline carbon tax. This implies that the effective discount rate for the costs of stochastic climate tipping is much lower than the discount rate(7,12,13) for deterministic climate damages. Our results support recent suggestions that the costs of carbon emission used to inform policy(12,13) are being underestimated(14-16), and that uncertain future climate damages should be discounted at a low rate(17-20).
C1 [Lontzek, Thomas S.] Univ Zurich, Dept Quantitat Business Adm, CH-8008 Zurich, Switzerland.
   [Cai, Yongyang; Judd, Kenneth L.] Stanford Univ, Hoover Inst, Stanford, CA 94305 USA.
   [Cai, Yongyang] Univ Chicago, Becker Friedman Inst, Chicago, IL 60636 USA.
   [Judd, Kenneth L.] NBER, Cambridge, MA 02138 USA.
   [Lenton, Timothy M.] Univ Exeter, Coll Life & Environm Sci, Earth Syst Sci Grp, Exeter EX4 4QE, Devon, England.
C3 University of Zurich; Stanford University; University of Chicago;
   National Bureau of Economic Research; University of Exeter
RP Lontzek, TS (corresponding author), Univ Zurich, Dept Quantitat Business Adm, CH-8008 Zurich, Switzerland.
EM lontzek@gmail.com; t.m.lenton@exeter.ac.uk
RI ; Lenton, Tim/X-1893-2018
OI Lontzek, Thomas/0000-0002-4789-5820; 
FU NSF [SES-0951576, OCI-0725070, ACI-1238993]; Zuricher
   Universitatsverein; University of Zurich; Ecosciencia Foundation; Royal
   Society Wolfson Research Merit Award; European Commission HELIX Project
   [ENV.2013.6.1-3]; NERC [NE/F005474/2] Funding Source: UKRI; Natural
   Environment Research Council [NE/F005474/2] Funding Source: researchfish
FX We thank K. Arrow, B. Brock, L. Goulder and participants of the 2014
   Workshop on the Economics of Complex Systems at the Beijer Institute of
   Ecological Economics for comments. Y.C., K.L.J. and T.S.L. were
   supported by NSF (SES-0951576). T.S.L. was also supported by the
   Zuricher Universitatsverein, the University of Zurich and the
   Ecosciencia Foundation. T.M.L. was supported by a Royal Society Wolfson
   Research Merit Award and the European Commission (ENV.2013.6.1-3) HELIX
   Project. Part of this study was done while T.S.L. was visiting the
   Hoover Institution. Supercomputer support was provided by Blue Waters
   (NSF awards OCI-0725070 and ACI-1238993, and the state of Illinois) and
   by NIH (1S10OD018495-01).
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NR 30
TC 152
Z9 177
U1 1
U2 64
PU NATURE PUBLISHING GROUP
PI LONDON
PA MACMILLAN BUILDING, 4 CRINAN ST, LONDON N1 9XW, ENGLAND
SN 1758-678X
EI 1758-6798
J9 NAT CLIM CHANGE
JI Nat. Clim. Chang.
PD MAY
PY 2015
VL 5
IS 5
BP 441
EP 444
DI 10.1038/NCLIMATE2570
PG 4
WC Environmental Sciences; Environmental Studies; Meteorology & Atmospheric
   Sciences
WE Science Citation Index Expanded (SCI-EXPANDED); Social Science Citation Index (SSCI)
SC Environmental Sciences & Ecology; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
GA CI6SO
UT WOS:000354891900020
OA Green Submitted
DA 2026-06-14
ER

PT J
AU Cai, YY
   Judd, KL
   Lenton, TM
   Lontzek, TS
   Narita, D
AF Cai, Yongyang
   Judd, Kenneth L.
   Lenton, Timothy M.
   Lontzek, Thomas S.
   Narita, Daiju
TI Environmental tipping points significantly affect the cost-benefit
   assessment of climate policies
SO PROCEEDINGS OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES OF THE UNITED STATES OF
   AMERICA
LA English
DT Article
DE climate change; tipping point; ecosystem; carbon tax; relative price
   effect
ID INTEGRATED ASSESSMENT; OPTIMAL MANAGEMENT; RISK; MITIGATION; FOREST;
   SUBSTITUTABILITY; UNCERTAINTY; THRESHOLDS; SAVANNA; GROWTH
AB Most current cost-benefit analyses of climate change policies suggest an optimal global climate policy that is significantly less stringent than the level required to meet the internationally agreed 2 degrees C target. This is partly because the sum of estimated economic damage of climate change across various sectors, such as energy use and changes in agricultural production, results in only a small economic loss or even a small economic gain in the gross world product under predicted levels of climate change. However, those cost-benefit analyses rarely take account of environmental tipping points leading to abrupt and irreversible impacts on market and nonmarket goods and services, including those provided by the climate and by ecosystems. Here we show that including environmental tipping point impacts in a stochastic dynamic integrated assessment model profoundly alters cost-benefit assessment of global climate policy. The risk of a tipping point, even if it only has nonmarket impacts, could substantially increase the present optimal carbon tax. For example, a risk of only 5% loss in nonmarket goods that occurs with a 5% annual probability at 4 degrees C increase of the global surface temperature causes an immediate two-thirds increase in optimal carbon tax. If the tipping point also has a 5% impact on market goods, the optimal carbon tax increases by more than a factor of 3. Hence existing cost-benefit assessments of global climate policy may be significantly underestimating the needs for controlling climate change.
C1 [Cai, Yongyang] Univ Chicago, Becker Friedman Inst, Chicago, IL 60637 USA.
   [Cai, Yongyang; Judd, Kenneth L.] Hoover Inst War Revolut & Peace, Stanford, CA 94305 USA.
   [Lenton, Timothy M.] Univ Exeter, Coll Life & Environm Sci, Earth Syst Sci, Exeter EX4 4QE, Devon, England.
   [Lontzek, Thomas S.] Univ Zurich, Dept Business Adm, CH-8044 Zurich, Switzerland.
   [Narita, Daiju] JICA, Res Inst, Tokyo 1628433, Japan.
   [Narita, Daiju] Kiel Inst World Econ, D-24105 Kiel, Germany.
C3 University of Chicago; University of Exeter; University of Zurich;
   Leibniz Association; Institut fur Weltwirtschaft an der Universitat Kiel
   (IFW)
RP Narita, D (corresponding author), JICA, Res Inst, Tokyo 1628433, Japan.
EM Narita.Daiju@jica.go.jp
RI Lenton, Tim/X-1893-2018; Narita, Daiju/AAH-2870-2020
OI Narita, Daiju/0000-0001-5695-9913; Lontzek, Thomas/0000-0002-4789-5820
FU National Science Foundation (NSF) [SES-0951576]; German Federal Ministry
   of Education and Research; Royal Society Wolfson Research Merit Award;
   European Commission [ENV.2013.6.1-3]; Zurcher Universitatsverein;
   University of Zurich; Ecosciencia Foundation; Blue Waters (NSF)
   [OCI-0725070, ACI-1238993]; state of Illinois; National Institutes of
   Health [1S10OD018495-01]; NERC [NE/F005474/1] Funding Source: UKRI;
   Natural Environment Research Council [NE/F005474/1] Funding Source:
   researchfish
FX We thank the editor and two anonymous reviewers whose comments helped
   improve and clarify the manuscript. Y.C. was supported by the National
   Science Foundation (NSF) (SES-0951576), and D.N. had financial support
   from the German Federal Ministry of Education and Research through the
   funding program Okonomie des Klimawandels. T.M.L. was supported by a
   Royal Society Wolfson Research Merit Award and by the European
   Commission (ENV.2013.6.1-3) HELIX project. T.S.L. was supported by the
   Zurcher Universitatsverein, the University of Zurich, and the
   Ecosciencia Foundation. Supercomputer support was provided by Blue
   Waters (NSF Awards OCI-0725070 and ACI-1238993, and the state of
   Illinois), and by the National Institutes of Health (1S10OD018495-01).
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NR 42
TC 82
Z9 98
U1 5
U2 86
PU NATL ACAD SCIENCES
PI WASHINGTON
PA 2101 CONSTITUTION AVE NW, WASHINGTON, DC 20418 USA
SN 0027-8424
EI 1091-6490
J9 P NATL ACAD SCI USA
JI Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U. S. A.
PD APR 14
PY 2015
VL 112
IS 15
BP 4606
EP 4611
DI 10.1073/pnas.1503890112
PG 6
WC Multidisciplinary Sciences
WE Science Citation Index Expanded (SCI-EXPANDED); Social Science Citation Index (SSCI)
SC Science & Technology - Other Topics
GA CF9BO
UT WOS:000352856800041
PM 25825719
OA Green Submitted
DA 2026-06-14
ER

PT J
AU Moore, FC
   Diaz, DB
AF Moore, Frances C.
   Diaz, Delavane B.
TI Temperature impacts on economic growth warrant stringent mitigation
   policy
SO NATURE CLIMATE CHANGE
LA English
DT Article
ID CLIMATE-CHANGE; WEATHER; RISK
AB Integrated assessment models compare the costs of greenhouse gas mitigation with damages from climate change to evaluate the social welfare implications of climate policy proposals and inform optimal emissions reduction trajectories. However, these models have been criticized for lacking a strong empirical basis for their damage functions, which do little to alter assumptions of sustained gross domestic product (GDP) growth, even under extreme temperature scenarios(1-3). We implement empirical estimates of temperature effects on GDP growth rates in the DICE model through two pathways, total factor productivity growth and capital depreciation(4,5). This damage specification, even under optimistic adaptation assumptions, substantially slows GDP growth in poor regions but has more modest effects in rich countries. Optimal climate policy in this model stabilizes global temperature change below 2 degrees C by eliminating emissions in the near future and implies a social cost of carbon several times larger than previous estimates(6). A sensitivity analysis shows that the magnitude of climate change impacts on economic growth, the rate of adaptation, and the dynamic interaction between damages and GDP are three critical uncertainties requiring further research. In particular, optimal mitigation rates are much lower if countries become less sensitive to climate change impacts as they develop, making this a major source of uncertainty and an important subject for future research.
C1 [Moore, Frances C.] Stanford Univ, Emmett Interdisciplinary Program Environm & Resou, Stanford, CA 94305 USA.
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   [Diaz, Delavane B.] Stanford Univ, Dept Management Sci & Engn, Stanford, CA 94305 USA.
C3 Stanford University; Stanford University; Stanford University
RP Moore, FC (corresponding author), Stanford Univ, Emmett Interdisciplinary Program Environm & Resou, Stanford, CA 94305 USA.
EM fcmoore@stanford.edu
OI Diaz, Delavane/0000-0001-8289-0980
FU Neukermans Family Foundation Stanford Interdisciplinary Graduate
   Fellowship
FX We would like to thank J. Koomey, C. Reichard and M. Craxton for
   comments on the manuscript. F.C.M. is supported by the Neukermans Family
   Foundation Stanford Interdisciplinary Graduate Fellowship.
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NR 30
TC 383
Z9 476
U1 3
U2 152
PU NATURE PUBLISHING GROUP
PI LONDON
PA MACMILLAN BUILDING, 4 CRINAN ST, LONDON N1 9XW, ENGLAND
SN 1758-678X
EI 1758-6798
J9 NAT CLIM CHANGE
JI Nat. Clim. Chang.
PD FEB
PY 2015
VL 5
IS 2
BP 127
EP 131
DI 10.1038/NCLIMATE2481
PG 5
WC Environmental Sciences; Environmental Studies; Meteorology & Atmospheric
   Sciences
WE Science Citation Index Expanded (SCI-EXPANDED); Social Science Citation Index (SSCI)
SC Environmental Sciences & Ecology; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
GA CC4MO
UT WOS:000350327700020
DA 2026-06-14
ER

PT J
AU Shayegh, S
   Thomas, VM
AF Shayegh, Soheil
   Thomas, Valerie M.
TI Adaptive stochastic integrated assessment modeling of optimal greenhouse
   gas emission reductions
SO CLIMATIC CHANGE
LA English
DT Article
DE Stochastic dynamic programing; Approximate dynamic programing; Bayesian
   inference; Tipping point; Climate sensitivity
ID CATASTROPHIC CLIMATE-CHANGE; EXPERT JUDGMENTS; TIPPING POINTS; FAT
   TAILS; UNCERTAINTY; ECONOMICS; SENSITIVITY
AB We develop a method for finding optimal greenhouse gas reduction rates under ongoing uncertainty and re-evaluation of climate parameters over future decades. Uncertainty about climate change includes both overall climate sensitivity and the risk of extreme tipping point events. We incorporate both types of uncertainty into a stochastic model of climate and the economy that has the objective of reducing global greenhouse gas emissions at lowest overall cost over time. Solving this problem is computationally challenging; we introduce a two-step-ahead approximate dynamic programming algorithm to solve the finite time horizon stochastic problem. The uncertainty in climate sensitivity may narrow in the future as the behavior of the climate continues to be observed and as climate science progresses. To incorporate this future knowledge, we use a Bayesian framework to update the two correlated uncertainties over time. The method is illustrated with the DICE integrated assessment model, adding in current estimates of climate sensitivity uncertainty and tipping point risk with an endogenous updating of climate sensitivity based on the occurrence of tipping point events; the method could also be applied to other integrated assessment models with different characterizations of uncertainties and risks.
C1 [Shayegh, Soheil; Thomas, Valerie M.] Georgia Inst Technol, H Milton Stewart Sch Ind & Syst Engn, Atlanta, GA 30332 USA.
   [Thomas, Valerie M.] Georgia Inst Technol, Sch Publ Policy, Atlanta, GA 30332 USA.
C3 University System of Georgia; Georgia Institute of Technology;
   University System of Georgia; Georgia Institute of Technology
RP Shayegh, S (corresponding author), Georgia Inst Technol, H Milton Stewart Sch Ind & Syst Engn, 765 Ferst Dr, Atlanta, GA 30332 USA.
EM soheilsh@gatech.edu; valerie.thomas@isye.gatech.edu
RI Shayegh, Soheil/I-4109-2014; Thomas, Valerie/U-4531-2019
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Z9 13
U1 1
U2 26
PU SPRINGER
PI DORDRECHT
PA VAN GODEWIJCKSTRAAT 30, 3311 GZ DORDRECHT, NETHERLANDS
SN 0165-0009
EI 1573-1480
J9 CLIMATIC CHANGE
JI Clim. Change
PD JAN
PY 2015
VL 128
IS 1-2
BP 1
EP 15
DI 10.1007/s10584-014-1300-3
PG 15
WC Environmental Sciences; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
WE Science Citation Index Expanded (SCI-EXPANDED)
SC Environmental Sciences & Ecology; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
GA AW4FO
UT WOS:000346236800001
DA 2026-06-14
ER

PT C
AU Weller, SR
   Hafeez, S
   Kellett, CM
AF Weller, Steven R.
   Hafeez, Salman
   Kellett, Christopher M.
GP IEEE
TI A receding horizon control approach to estimating the social cost of
   carbon in the presence of emissions and temperature uncertainty
SO 2015 54TH IEEE CONFERENCE ON DECISION AND CONTROL (CDC)
SE IEEE Conference on Decision and Control
LA English
DT Proceedings Paper
CT 54th IEEE Conference on Decision and Control (CDC)
CY DEC 15-18, 2015
CL Osaka, JAPAN
SP Kozo Keikaku Engn, MathWorks, Springer, CYBERNET Syst, Mitsubishi Elect, Soc Ind & Appl Math, Altair, Int Journal Automat & Comp, IEEE CAA Journal Automatica Sinica, Cogent Engn, Now, IHI, IEEE
ID SUSTAINABLE POLICIES; MODEL; MPC; DESIGN
AB In this paper, we consider estimates of the dollar value of carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions due to anthropogenic climate damages, known as the social cost of carbon (SCC). Estimates of SCC are produced using integrated assessment models (IAMs) in which simplified models of the global climate system are in feedback connection with highly stylized models of global economic behavior. Approaches to optimal emissions reduction pathways are conventionally based on solutions to open-loop optimal control problems, which do not easily accommodate key uncertainties in the dynamic response of the climatic and economic sub-systems. In this paper we develop a receding horizon implementation of DICE (Dynamic Integrated model of Climate and the Economy), the most widely used IAM. We use this receding horizon control framework to compute the social cost of carbon in the presence of uncertainty in CO 2 emissions and measurements of global mean surface temperature, and to investigate the effect on the SCC of a hard constraint limiting global temperature rise to no more than 2 degrees C over pre-industrial levels.
C1 [Weller, Steven R.; Hafeez, Salman; Kellett, Christopher M.] Univ Newcastle, Sch Elect Engn & Comp Sci, Callaghan, NSW 2308, Australia.
C3 University of Newcastle
RP Weller, SR (corresponding author), Univ Newcastle, Sch Elect Engn & Comp Sci, Callaghan, NSW 2308, Australia.
EM steven.weller@newcastle.edu.au; salman.hafeez@uon.edu.au;
   chris.kellett@newcastle.edu.au
RI Kellett, Christopher/C-1815-2008
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PU IEEE
PI NEW YORK
PA 345 E 47TH ST, NEW YORK, NY 10017 USA
SN 0743-1546
EI 2576-2370
BN 978-1-4799-7886-1
J9 IEEE DECIS CONTR P
PY 2015
BP 5384
EP 5390
PG 7
WC Automation & Control Systems; Engineering, Electrical & Electronic
WE Conference Proceedings Citation Index - Science (CPCI-S)
SC Automation & Control Systems; Engineering
GA BF4PY
UT WOS:000381554505093
DA 2026-06-14
ER

PT J
AU Butler, MP
   Reed, PM
   Fisher-Vanden, K
   Keller, K
   Wagener, T
AF Butler, Martha P.
   Reed, Patrick M.
   Fisher-Vanden, Karen
   Keller, Klaus
   Wagener, Thorsten
TI Inaction and climate stabilization uncertainties lead to severe economic
   risks
SO CLIMATIC CHANGE
LA English
DT Article
ID INTEGRATED ASSESSMENT MODELS; ENDOGENOUS TECHNOLOGICAL-CHANGE;
   SENSITIVITY MEASURES; POLICY; TEMPERATURE; REDUCTIONS
AB Climate stabilization efforts must integrate the actions of many socio-economic sectors to be successful in meeting climate stabilization goals, such as limiting atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) concentration to be less than double the pre-industrial levels. Estimates of the costs and benefits of stabilization policies are often informed by Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs) of the climate and the economy. These IAMs are highly non-linear with many parameters that abstract globally integrated characteristics of environmental and socio-economic systems. Diagnostic analyses of IAMs can aid in identifying the interdependencies and parametric controls of modeled stabilization policies. Here we report a comprehensive variance-based sensitivity analysis of a doubled-CO2 stabilization policy scenario generated by the globally-aggregated Dynamic Integrated model of Climate and the Economy (DICE). We find that neglecting uncertainties considerably underestimates damage and mitigation costs associated with a doubled-CO2 stabilization goal. More than ninety percent of the states-of-the-world (SOWs) sampled in our analysis exceed the damages and abatement costs calculated for the reference case neglecting uncertainties (1.2 trillion 2005 USD, with worst case costs exceeding $60 trillion). We attribute the variance in these costs to uncertainties in the model parameters relating to climate sensitivity, global participation in abatement, and the cost of lower emission energy sources.
C1 [Butler, Martha P.] Penn State Univ, Dept Civil & Environm Engn, University Pk, PA 16802 USA.
   [Reed, Patrick M.] Cornell Univ, Dept Civil & Environm Engn, Ithaca, NY 14853 USA.
   [Fisher-Vanden, Karen] Penn State Univ, Dept Agr Econ Sociol & Educ, University Pk, PA 16802 USA.
   [Keller, Klaus] Penn State Univ, Dept Geosci, University Pk, PA 16802 USA.
   [Keller, Klaus] Penn State Univ, Earth & Environm Syst Inst, University Pk, PA 16802 USA.
   [Keller, Klaus] Carnegie Mellon Univ, Dept Engn & Publ Policy, Pittsburgh, PA 15213 USA.
   [Wagener, Thorsten] Univ Bristol, Dept Civil Engn, Bristol BS8 1TR, Avon, England.
C3 Pennsylvania Commonwealth System of Higher Education (PCSHE);
   Pennsylvania State University; Pennsylvania State University -
   University Park; Cornell University; Pennsylvania Commonwealth System of
   Higher Education (PCSHE); Pennsylvania State University; Pennsylvania
   State University - University Park; Pennsylvania Commonwealth System of
   Higher Education (PCSHE); Pennsylvania State University; Pennsylvania
   State University - University Park; Pennsylvania Commonwealth System of
   Higher Education (PCSHE); Pennsylvania State University; Pennsylvania
   State University - University Park; Carnegie Mellon University;
   University of Bristol
RP Butler, MP (corresponding author), Penn State Univ, Dept Meteorol, 503 Walker Bldg, University Pk, PA 16802 USA.
EM mpbutler@psu.edu
RI /A-6742-2013; Reed, Patrick/E-4435-2014; Wagener, Thorsten/C-2062-2008
OI Butler, Martha/0000-0003-4348-5370; Keller, Klaus/0000-0002-5451-8687;
   Reed, Patrick/0000-0002-7963-6102; Wagener, Thorsten/0000-0003-3881-5849
FU U.S. Department of Energy, Office of Science, Biological and
   Environmental Research Program, Integrated Assessment Program
   [DE-SC0005171]; NSF through the Network for Sustainable Climate Risk
   Management (SCRiM) [GEO-1240507]; Penn State Center for Climate Risk
   Management; Directorate For Geosciences [1240507] Funding Source:
   National Science Foundation
FX This work was supported by the U.S. Department of Energy, Office of
   Science, Biological and Environmental Research Program, Integrated
   Assessment Program, Grant No. DE-SC0005171, with additional support from
   NSF through the Network for Sustainable Climate Risk Management (SCRiM)
   under NSF cooperative agreement GEO-1240507 and the Penn State Center
   for Climate Risk Management. The authors thank William Nordhaus for
   making the DICE model available, and Alex Libardoni, Chris Forest and
   Roman Olson for providing their empirical climate sensitivity estimates
   and advice on their use and interpretation. The DICE model and
   documentation were accessed on 2/5/2011 from
   http://nordhaus.econ.yale.edu. Current access to the DICE model is at
   http://www.econ.yale.edu/similar
   tonordhaus/homepage/index.html. The CDICE model code is at
   https://github.com/mpbutler/CDICE2007. Sobol' sampling and sensitivity
   analysis code used in this study are from the MOEA Diagnostic Tool
   http://www.moeaframework.org. Any opinions, findings, and conclusions
   expressed in this work are those of the authors, and do not necessarily
   reflect the views of the National Science Foundation or the Department
   of Energy.
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NR 54
TC 14
Z9 17
U1 0
U2 34
PU SPRINGER
PI DORDRECHT
PA VAN GODEWIJCKSTRAAT 30, 3311 GZ DORDRECHT, NETHERLANDS
SN 0165-0009
EI 1573-1480
J9 CLIMATIC CHANGE
JI Clim. Change
PD DEC
PY 2014
VL 127
IS 3-4
BP 463
EP 474
DI 10.1007/s10584-014-1283-0
PG 12
WC Environmental Sciences; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
WE Science Citation Index Expanded (SCI-EXPANDED); Social Science Citation Index (SSCI)
SC Environmental Sciences & Ecology; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
GA AU1HP
UT WOS:000345372000007
DA 2026-06-14
ER

PT J
AU Fabert, BP
   Pottier, A
   Espagne, E
   Dumas, P
   Nadaud, F
AF Fabert, Baptiste Perrissin
   Pottier, Antonin
   Espagne, Etienne
   Dumas, Patrice
   Nadaud, Franck
TI Why are climate policies of the present decade so crucial for keeping
   the 2 A°C target credible?
SO CLIMATIC CHANGE
LA English
DT Article
ID ECONOMICS; STRATEGIES
AB Decision-makers have confirmed the long term objective of preventing a temperature increase greater than 2 A degrees C. This paper aims at appraising by means of a cost-benefit analysis whether decision makers' commitment to meet the 2 A degrees C objective is credible or not. Within the framework of a cost-benefit type integrated assessment model, we consider that the economy faces climate damages with a threshold at 2 A degrees C. We run the model for a broad set of scenarios accounting for the diversity of "worldviews" in the climate debate. For a significant share of scenarios we observe that it is considered optimal to exceed the threshold. Among those "non-compliers" we discriminate "involuntary non-compliers" who cannot avoid the exceedance due to physical constraint from "deliberate compliers" for whom the exceedance results from a deliberate costs-benefit analysis. A second result is that the later mitigation efforts begin, the more difficult it becomes to prevent the exceedance. In particular, the number of "deliberate non-compliers" dramatically increases if mitigation efforts do not start by 2020, and the influx of involuntary non-compliers become overwhelming f efforts are delayed to 2040. In light of these results we argue that the window of opportunity for reaching the 2 A degrees C objective with a credible chance of success is rapidly closing during the present decade. Further delay in finding a climate agreement critically undermines the credibility of the objective.
C1 [Fabert, Baptiste Perrissin; Pottier, Antonin; Espagne, Etienne; Nadaud, Franck] CIRED, F-94736 Nogent Sur Marne, France.
   [Dumas, Patrice] CIRAD, Montpellier, France.
C3 Universite Paris Saclay; AgroParisTech; Institut Polytechnique de Paris;
   Ecole Nationale des Ponts et Chaussees; CIRAD
RP Fabert, BP (corresponding author), CIRED, 45 Bis,Ave Belle Gabrielle, F-94736 Nogent Sur Marne, France.
EM perrissin@centre-cired.fr
RI Espagne, Etienne/OSH-8281-2025; Pottier, Antonin/Q-1171-2017
OI Espagne, Etienne/0009-0007-5419-521X; Pottier,
   Antonin/0000-0003-2890-9585
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NR 28
TC 4
Z9 6
U1 0
U2 14
PU SPRINGER
PI DORDRECHT
PA VAN GODEWIJCKSTRAAT 30, 3311 GZ DORDRECHT, NETHERLANDS
SN 0165-0009
EI 1573-1480
J9 CLIMATIC CHANGE
JI Clim. Change
PD OCT
PY 2014
VL 126
IS 3-4
BP 337
EP 349
DI 10.1007/s10584-014-1222-0
PG 13
WC Environmental Sciences; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
WE Science Citation Index Expanded (SCI-EXPANDED); Social Science Citation Index (SSCI)
SC Environmental Sciences & Ecology; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
GA AP9VD
UT WOS:000342428000005
DA 2026-06-14
ER

PT J
AU Pezzey, JCV
   Burke, PJ
AF Pezzey, John C. V.
   Burke, Paul J.
TI Towards a more inclusive and precautionary indicator of global
   sustainability
SO ECOLOGICAL ECONOMICS
LA English
DT Article
DE Global sustainability; Optimism and pessimism; Precautionary valuation
   of CO2 emissions; Unknowability and induction; Population growth;
   Technical progress
ID DANGEROUS CLIMATE-CHANGE; TECHNICAL CHANGE; UNCERTAINTY; MITIGATION;
   ECONOMICS; IMPACTS; TARGETS; POLICY; MODEL; RISK
AB We construct a hybrid, economic indicator of the sustainability of global well-being, which is more inclusive than existing indicators and incorporates an environmentally pessimistic, physical constraint on global warming. Our methodology extends the World Bank's Adjusted Net Saving (ANS) indicator to include the cost of population growth, the benefit of technical progress, and a much higher, precautionary cost of current CO2 emissions. Future warming damage is so highly unknowable that valuing emissions directly is rather arbitrary, so we use a novel, inductive approach: we modify damage and climate parameters in the deterministic DICE climate-economy model so it becomes economically optimal to control emissions in a way likely to limit warming to an agreed target, here 2 degrees C. If future emissions are optimally controlled, our ANS then suggests that current global well-being is sustainable. But if emissions remain uncontrolled, our base-case ANS is negative now and our corresponding, modified DICE model has an unsustained development path, with well-being peaking in 2065. Current ANS on an uncontrolled path may thus be a useful heuristic indicator of future unsustainability. Our inductive method might allow ANS to include other very hard-to-value, environmental threats to global sustainability, like biodiversity loss and nitrogen pollution. (C) 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
C1 [Pezzey, John C. V.] Australian Natl Univ, Fenner Sch Environm & Soc, Canberra, ACT 0200, Australia.
   [Burke, Paul J.] Australian Natl Univ, Crawford Sch Publ Policy, Canberra, ACT 0200, Australia.
C3 Australian National University; Australian National University
RP Pezzey, JCV (corresponding author), Australian Natl Univ, Fenner Sch Environm & Soc, GPO Box 4, Canberra, ACT 0200, Australia.
EM jack.pezzey@anu.edu.au
RI Pezzey, John/A-8804-2015; Burke, Paul/G-3757-2010
OI Pezzey, John/0000-0001-6473-9355; Burke, Paul/0000-0003-2715-2672
FU Australian Government's Commonwealth Environment Research Facilities
   program
FX We thank two anonymous referees for their careful, detailed comments on
   earlier drafts. We also thank Joern Fischer, Quentin Grafton, Kirk
   Hamilton, Nick Hanley, Rob Heinsohn, Charles Jenkins, Duncan McIntyre,
   Mike Raupach, Will Steffen, Mike Toman, and many others for a wealth of
   helpful comments. We thank the Australian Government's Commonwealth
   Environment Research Facilities program for financial support. All
   errors and opinions are ours.
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NR 73
TC 14
Z9 20
U1 0
U2 46
PU ELSEVIER
PI AMSTERDAM
PA RADARWEG 29, 1043 NX AMSTERDAM, NETHERLANDS
SN 0921-8009
EI 1873-6106
J9 ECOL ECON
JI Ecol. Econ.
PD OCT
PY 2014
VL 106
BP 141
EP 154
DI 10.1016/j.ecolecon.2014.07.008
PG 14
WC Ecology; Economics; Environmental Sciences; Environmental Studies
WE Science Citation Index Expanded (SCI-EXPANDED); Social Science Citation Index (SSCI)
SC Environmental Sciences & Ecology; Business & Economics
GA AP7RO
UT WOS:000342274600013
DA 2026-06-14
ER

PT J
AU Butler, MP
   Reed, PM
   Fisher-Vanden, K
   Keller, K
   Wagener, T
AF Butler, Martha P.
   Reed, Patrick M.
   Fisher-Vanden, Karen
   Keller, Klaus
   Wagener, Thorsten
TI Identifying parametric controls and dependencies in integrated
   assessment models using global sensitivity analysis
SO ENVIRONMENTAL MODELLING & SOFTWARE
LA English
DT Article
DE Integrated assessment model; Global sensitivity analysis; Sobol' method;
   Model diagnostics; Climate change
ID TECHNOLOGICAL-CHANGE; CARBON-CYCLE; CLIMATE; UNCERTAINTY; POLICY;
   THRESHOLDS
AB Integrated assessment models for climate change (IAMs) couple representations of economic and natural systems to identify and evaluate strategies for managing the effects of global climate change. In this study we subject three policy scenarios from the globally-aggregated Dynamic Integrated model of Climate and the Economy IAM to a comprehensive global sensitivity analysis using Sobol' variance decomposition. We focus on cost metrics representing diversions of economic resources from global world production. Our study illustrates how the sensitivity ranking of model parameters differs for alternative cost metrics, over time, and for different emission control strategies. This study contributes a comprehensive illustration of the negative consequences associated with using a priori expert elicitations to reduce the set of parameters analyzed in IAM uncertainty analysis. The results also provide a strong argument for conducting comprehensive model diagnostics for IAMs that explicitly account for the parameter interactions between the coupled natural and economic system components. (C) 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
C1 [Butler, Martha P.] Penn State Univ, Dept Civil & Environm Engn, University Pk, PA 16802 USA.
   [Reed, Patrick M.] Cornell Univ, Dept Civil & Environm Engn, Ithaca, NY 14853 USA.
   [Fisher-Vanden, Karen] Penn State Univ, Dept Agr Econ Sociol & Educ, University Pk, PA 16802 USA.
   [Keller, Klaus] Penn State Univ, Dept Geosci, University Pk, PA 16802 USA.
   [Keller, Klaus] Penn State Univ, Earth & Environm Syst Inst, University Pk, PA 16802 USA.
   [Keller, Klaus] Carnegie Mellon Univ, Dept Engn & Publ Policy, Pittsburgh, PA 15213 USA.
   [Wagener, Thorsten] Univ Bristol, Dept Civil Engn, Bristol BS8 1TR, Avon, England.
C3 Pennsylvania Commonwealth System of Higher Education (PCSHE);
   Pennsylvania State University; Pennsylvania State University -
   University Park; Cornell University; Pennsylvania Commonwealth System of
   Higher Education (PCSHE); Pennsylvania State University; Pennsylvania
   State University - University Park; Pennsylvania Commonwealth System of
   Higher Education (PCSHE); Pennsylvania State University; Pennsylvania
   State University - University Park; Pennsylvania Commonwealth System of
   Higher Education (PCSHE); Pennsylvania State University; Pennsylvania
   State University - University Park; Carnegie Mellon University;
   University of Bristol
RP Butler, MP (corresponding author), Penn State Univ, Dept Meteorol, University Pk, PA 16802 USA.
EM mpbutler@psu.edu
RI /A-6742-2013; Wagener, Thorsten/C-2062-2008; Reed, Patrick/E-4435-2014
OI Butler, Martha/0000-0003-4348-5370; Keller, Klaus/0000-0002-5451-8687;
   Wagener, Thorsten/0000-0003-3881-5849; Reed, Patrick/0000-0002-7963-6102
FU Directorate For Geosciences [1240507] Funding Source: National Science
   Foundation
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NR 77
TC 64
Z9 76
U1 0
U2 43
PU ELSEVIER SCI LTD
PI OXFORD
PA THE BOULEVARD, LANGFORD LANE, KIDLINGTON, OXFORD OX5 1GB, OXON, ENGLAND
SN 1364-8152
EI 1873-6726
J9 ENVIRON MODELL SOFTW
JI Environ. Modell. Softw.
PD SEP
PY 2014
VL 59
BP 10
EP 29
DI 10.1016/j.envsoft.2014.05.001
PG 20
WC Computer Science, Interdisciplinary Applications; Engineering,
   Environmental; Environmental Sciences; Water Resources
WE Science Citation Index Expanded (SCI-EXPANDED)
SC Computer Science; Engineering; Environmental Sciences & Ecology; Water
   Resources
GA AM2RZ
UT WOS:000339699800002
DA 2026-06-14
ER

PT J
AU Traeger, CP
AF Traeger, Christian P.
TI A 4-Stated DICE: Quantitatively Addressing Uncertainty Effects in
   Climate Change
SO ENVIRONMENTAL & RESOURCE ECONOMICS
LA English
DT Article
DE Climate change; Uncertainty; Integrated assessment; DICE; Dynamic
   programming; Risk aversion; Intertemporal substitution; MAGICC; Basis;
   Recursive utility
ID LONG-RUN; RISK; SUBSTITUTION; MITIGATION; GROWTH; QUOTAS; TAXES
AB We introduce a version of the DICE-2007 model designed for uncertainty analysis. DICE is a wide-spread deterministic integrated assessment model of climate change. Climate change, long-term economic development, and their interactions are highly uncertain. The quantitative analysis of optimal mitigation policy under uncertainty requires a recursive dynamic programming implementation of integrated assessment models. Such implementations are subject to the curse of dimensionality. Every increase in the dimension of the state space is paid for by a combination of (exponentially) increasing processor time, lower quality of the value or policy function approximations, and reductions of the uncertainty domain. The paper promotes a state-reduced, recursive dynamic programming implementation of the DICE-2007 model. We achieve the reduction by simplifying the carbon cycle and the temperature delay equations. We compare our model's performance and that of the DICE model to the scientific AOGCM models emulated by MAGICC 6.0 and find that our simplified model performs equally well as the original DICE model. Our implementation solves the infinite planning horizon problem in an arbitrary time step. The paper is the first to carefully analyze the quality of the value function approximation using two different types of basis functions and systematically varying the dimension of the basis. We present the closed form, continuous time approximation to the exogenous (discretely and inductively defined) processes in DICE, and we present a numerically more efficient re-normalized Bellman equation that, in addition, can disentangle risk attitude from the propensity to smooth consumption over time.
C1 Univ Calif Berkeley, Dept Agr & Resource Econ, Berkeley, CA 94720 USA.
C3 University of California System; University of California Berkeley
RP Traeger, CP (corresponding author), Univ Calif Berkeley, Dept Agr & Resource Econ, 207 Giannini Hall 3310, Berkeley, CA 94720 USA.
EM traeger@berkeley.edu
FU Directorate For Geosciences [1240507] Funding Source: National Science
   Foundation
CR [Anonymous], AM EC J EC POLICY
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NR 41
TC 49
Z9 67
U1 0
U2 23
PU SPRINGER
PI DORDRECHT
PA VAN GODEWIJCKSTRAAT 30, 3311 GZ DORDRECHT, NETHERLANDS
SN 0924-6460
EI 1573-1502
J9 ENVIRON RESOUR ECON
JI Environ. Resour. Econ.
PD SEP
PY 2014
VL 59
IS 1
BP 1
EP 37
DI 10.1007/s10640-014-9776-x
PG 37
WC Economics; Environmental Studies
WE Social Science Citation Index (SSCI)
SC Business & Economics; Environmental Sciences & Ecology
GA AN4DL
UT WOS:000340537700001
OA Green Submitted
DA 2026-06-14
ER

PT J
AU Moyer, EJ
   Woolley, MD
   Matteson, NJ
   Glotter, MJ
   Weisbach, DA
AF Moyer, Elisabeth J.
   Woolley, Mark D.
   Matteson, Nathan J.
   Glotter, Michael J.
   Weisbach, David A.
TI Climate Impacts on Economic Growth as Drivers of Uncertainty in the
   Social Cost of Carbon
SO JOURNAL OF LEGAL STUDIES
LA English
DT Article
ID LIMITS
AB We reexamine estimates of the social cost of carbon (SCC) used by agencies as the price of carbon emissions in cost-benefit analysis, focusing on those by the federal Interagency Working Group on SCC (IWG). We show that the models used by the IWG assume continued economic growth in the face of substantial temperature increases, which suggests that they may not capture the full range of possible consequences of climate change. Using the DICE integrated assessment model, we examine the possibility that climate change may directly affect productivity and find that even a modest impact of this type increases SCC estimates substantially. The SCC appears to be highly uncertain and sensitive to modeling assumptions. Understanding the impact of climate change therefore requires understanding how climate-related harms may affect productivity and economic growth. Furthermore, we suggest that misunderstandings about growth assumptions in the model may underlie the debate surrounding the proper discount rate.
C1 [Moyer, Elisabeth J.; Glotter, Michael J.] Univ Chicago, Dept Geophys Sci, Chicago, IL 60637 USA.
   [Woolley, Mark D.] Depaul Univ, Logist Management Inst, Chicago, IL 60604 USA.
   [Matteson, Nathan J.] Depaul Univ, Coll Comp & Digital Media, Chicago, IL 60604 USA.
   [Weisbach, David A.] Univ Chicago, Sch Law, Chicago, IL 60637 USA.
C3 University of Chicago; DePaul University; DePaul University; University
   of Chicago
RP Moyer, EJ (corresponding author), Univ Chicago, Dept Geophys Sci, Chicago, IL 60637 USA.
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NR 41
TC 68
Z9 85
U1 1
U2 26
PU UNIV CHICAGO PRESS
PI CHICAGO
PA 1427 E 60TH ST, CHICAGO, IL 60637-2954 USA
SN 0047-2530
EI 1537-5366
J9 J LEGAL STUD
JI J. Legal Stud.
PD JUN
PY 2014
VL 43
IS 2
BP 401
EP 425
DI 10.1086/678140
PG 25
WC Law
WE Social Science Citation Index (SSCI)
SC Government & Law
GA AS6GM
UT WOS:000344362400006
DA 2026-06-14
ER

PT J
AU Nordhaus, W
AF Nordhaus, William
TI Estimates of the Social Cost of Carbon: Concepts and Results from the
   DICE-2013R Model and Alternative Approaches
SO JOURNAL OF THE ASSOCIATION OF ENVIRONMENTAL AND RESOURCE ECONOMISTS
LA English
DT Article
DE Climate change; CO2; Externality; Social cost of carbon
ID ENVIRONMENTAL-PROTECTION; CLIMATE; ECONOMICS; TAXES
AB The social cost of carbon (SCC) is an important concept for understanding and implementing climate change policies. This term represents the economic cost caused by an additional ton of carbon dioxide emissions (or more succinctly carbon) or its equivalent. The present study describes the development of the concept, provides examples of its use in current US regulator policies, examines its analytical background, and estimates the SCC using an updated integrated assessment model, the DICE-2013R model. The study estimates that the SCC is $18.6 per ton of CO2 in 2005 US dollars and international prices for the current period (2015). For the central case, the real SCC grows at 3% per year over the period to 2050. The major open issues concerning the SCC continue to be the appropriate discount rate, the potential for catastrophic damages, the impact of incomplete harmonization of abatement policies, and the effects of distortionary taxes.
C1 [Nordhaus, William] Yale Univ, New Haven, CT 06520 USA.
C3 Yale University
RP Nordhaus, W (corresponding author), Yale Univ, New Haven, CT 06520 USA.
EM william.nordhaus@yale.edu
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NR 73
TC 346
Z9 438
U1 3
U2 145
PU UNIV CHICAGO PRESS
PI CHICAGO
PA 1427 E 60TH ST, CHICAGO, IL 60637-2954 USA
SN 2333-5955
EI 2333-5963
J9 J ASSOC ENVIRON RESO
JI J. Assoc. Environ. Resour. Econ.
PD SPR-SUM
PY 2014
VL 1
IS 1-2
BP 273
EP 312
DI 10.1086/676035
PG 40
WC Economics; Environmental Studies
WE Social Science Citation Index (SSCI)
SC Business & Economics; Environmental Sciences & Ecology
GA V3S5M
UT WOS:000218547700011
DA 2026-06-14
ER

PT J
AU Anderson, B
   Borgonovo, E
   Galeotti, M
   Roson, R
AF Anderson, Barry
   Borgonovo, Emanuele
   Galeotti, Marzio
   Roson, Roberto
TI Uncertainty in Climate Change Modeling: Can Global Sensitivity Analysis
   Be of Help?
SO RISK ANALYSIS
LA English
DT Article
DE Climate change; global sensitivity analysis; integrated assessment
   modeling; risk analysis
ID SYSTEMS-ANALYSIS; DISTANT FUTURE; RISK; ECONOMICS; POLICY; PROJECTIONS;
   STRATEGIES; MARKAL; COSTS
AB Integrated assessment models offer a crucial support to decisionmakers in climate policy making. For a full understanding and corroboration of model results, analysts ought to identify the exogenous variables that influence the model results the most (key drivers), appraise the relevance of interactions, and the direction of change associated with the simultaneous variation of uncertain variables. We show that such information can be directly extracted from the data set produced by Monte Carlo simulations. Our discussion is guided by the application to the well-known DICE model of William Nordhaus. The proposed methodology allows analysts to draw robust insights into the dependence of future atmospheric temperature, global emissions, and carbon costs and taxes on the model's exogenous variables.
C1 [Anderson, Barry; Galeotti, Marzio; Roson, Roberto] IEFE Univ Bocconi, Milan, Italy.
   [Borgonovo, Emanuele] Bocconi Univ, Dept Decis Sci, ELEUSI, I-20136 Milan, Italy.
   [Galeotti, Marzio] Dept Econ Management & Quantitat Methods DEMM, Milan, Italy.
   [Roson, Roberto] Dept Econ, Venice, Italy.
C3 Bocconi University; Bocconi University
RP Borgonovo, E (corresponding author), Bocconi Univ, Dept Decis Sci, Via Roentgen 1, I-20136 Milan, Italy.
EM emanuele.borgonovo@unibocconi.it
RI Borgonovo, Emanuele/MTF-6253-2025; Roson, Roberto/AAH-8818-2021
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NR 95
TC 87
Z9 98
U1 0
U2 29
PU WILEY
PI HOBOKEN
PA 111 RIVER ST, HOBOKEN 07030-5774, NJ USA
SN 0272-4332
EI 1539-6924
J9 RISK ANAL
JI Risk Anal.
PD FEB
PY 2014
VL 34
IS 2
BP 271
EP 293
DI 10.1111/risa.12117
PG 23
WC Public, Environmental & Occupational Health; Mathematics,
   Interdisciplinary Applications; Social Sciences, Mathematical Methods
WE Science Citation Index Expanded (SCI-EXPANDED); Social Science Citation Index (SSCI)
SC Public, Environmental & Occupational Health; Mathematics; Mathematical
   Methods In Social Sciences
GA AA8PV
UT WOS:000331358300007
PM 24111855
OA Green Submitted
DA 2026-06-14
ER

PT J
AU Lemoine, D
   Traeger, C
AF Lemoine, Derek
   Traeger, Christian
TI Watch Your Step: Optimal Policy in a Tipping Climate
SO AMERICAN ECONOMIC JOURNAL-ECONOMIC POLICY
LA English
DT Article
ID ECONOMICS; THRESHOLDS; MANAGEMENT; UNCERTAIN; SYSTEMS; POINTS; GROWTH;
   MODELS
AB We investigate the optimal policy response to the possibility of abrupt, irreversible shifts in system dynamics. The welfare cost of a tipping point emerges from the policymaker's response to altered system dynamics. Our policymaker also learns about a threshold's location by observing the system's response in each period. Simulations with a recursive, numerical climate-economy model show that tipping possibilities raise the optimal carbon tax more strongly over time. The resulting policy paths ultimately lower optimal peak warming by up to 0.5 degrees C. Different types of posttipping shifts in dynamics generate qualitatively different optimal pretipping policy paths.
C1 [Lemoine, Derek] Univ Arizona, Dept Econ, Tucson, AZ 85721 USA.
   [Traeger, Christian] Univ Calif Berkeley, Dept Agr & Resource Econ, Berkeley, CA 94720 USA.
C3 University of Arizona; University of California System; University of
   California Berkeley
RP Lemoine, D (corresponding author), Univ Arizona, Dept Econ, McClelland Hall 401,1130 E Helen St, Tucson, AZ 85721 USA.
EM dlemoine@email.arizona.edu; traeger@berkeley.edu
OI Lemoine, Derek/0000-0002-1298-9472
FU Directorate For Geosciences [1240507] Funding Source: National Science
   Foundation
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NR 52
TC 160
Z9 213
U1 4
U2 65
PU AMER ECONOMIC ASSOC
PI NASHVILLE
PA 2014 BROADWAY, STE 305, NASHVILLE, TN 37203 USA
SN 1945-7731
EI 1945-774X
J9 AM ECON J-ECON POLIC
JI Am. Econ. J.-Econ. Policy
PD FEB
PY 2014
VL 6
IS 1
BP 137
EP 166
DI 10.1257/pol.6.1.137
PG 30
WC Economics
WE Social Science Citation Index (SSCI)
SC Business & Economics
GA AA6GC
UT WOS:000331195800006
DA 2026-06-14
ER

PT J
AU van der Ploeg, F
   Withagen, C
AF van der Ploeg, Frederick
   Withagen, Cees
TI GROWTH, RENEWABLES, AND THE OPTIMAL CARBON TAX
SO INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC REVIEW
LA English
DT Article
ID FOSSIL-FUELS; SUPPLY-SIDE; CONSUMPTION; ECONOMICS; RESOURCE; IMPACTS
AB Optimal climate policy is investigated in a Ramsey growth model of the global economy with exhaustible oil reserves, an infinitely elastic supply of renewables, stock-dependent oil extraction costs, and convex climate damages. Four regimes can occur, depending on the initial social cost of oil being larger or smaller than that of renewables and depending on the initial oil stock being large or small. We also offer some policy simulations for the first and second regime, which illustrate that with a lower discount rate more oil is left in situ and renewables are phased in more quickly. We identify the conditions under which the optimal carbon tax rises or decreases. Subsidizing renewables (without a carbon tax) induces more oil to be left in situ and a quicker phasing in of renewables, but oil is depleted more rapidly initially. The net effect on global warming is ambiguous.
C1 Univ Oxford, Oxford OX13 UQ, England.
   Vrije Univ Amsterdam, Amsterdam, Netherlands.
C3 University of Oxford; Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam
RP van der Ploeg, F (corresponding author), Univ Oxford, Dept Econ, Manor Rd Bldg, Oxford OX13 UQ, England.
EM rick.vanderploeg@economics.ox.ac.uk
OI Withagen, Cees/0000-0001-6773-5886
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NR 47
TC 83
Z9 105
U1 2
U2 57
PU WILEY
PI HOBOKEN
PA 111 RIVER ST, HOBOKEN 07030-5774, NJ USA
SN 0020-6598
EI 1468-2354
J9 INT ECON REV
JI Int. Econ. Rev.
PD FEB
PY 2014
VL 55
IS 1
BP 283
EP 311
DI 10.1111/iere.12049
PG 29
WC Economics
WE Social Science Citation Index (SSCI)
SC Business & Economics
GA AA4OP
UT WOS:000331075800011
DA 2026-06-14
ER

PT J
AU Golosov, M
   Hassler, J
   Krusell, P
   Tsyvinski, A
AF Golosov, Mikhail
   Hassler, John
   Krusell, Per
   Tsyvinski, Aleh
TI OPTIMAL TAXES ON FOSSIL FUEL IN GENERAL EQUILIBRIUM
SO ECONOMETRICA
LA English
DT Article
DE Climate change; optimal policy; optimal taxes
ID CO2; ECONOMICS; GROWTH
AB We analyze a dynamic stochastic general-equilibrium (DSGE) model with an externalitythrough climate changefrom using fossil energy. Our central result is a simple formula for the marginal externality damage of emissions (or, equivalently, for the optimal carbon tax). This formula, which holds under quite plausible assumptions, reveals that the damage is proportional to current GDP, with the proportion depending only on three factors: (i) discounting, (ii) the expected damage elasticity (how many percent of the output flow is lost from an extra unit of carbon in the atmosphere), and (iii) the structure of carbon depreciation in the atmosphere. Thus, the stochastic values of future output, consumption, and the atmospheric CO2 concentration, as well as the paths of technology (whether endogenous or exogenous) and population, and so on, all disappear from the formula. We find that the optimal tax should be a bit higher than the median, or most well-known, estimates in the literature. We also formulate a parsimonious yet comprehensive and easily solved model allowing us to compute the optimal and market paths for the use of different sources of energy and the corresponding climate change. We find coalrather than oilto be the main threat to economic welfare, largely due to its abundance. We also find that the costs of inaction are particularly sensitive to the assumptions regarding the substitutability of different energy sources and technological progress.
C1 [Golosov, Mikhail] Princeton Univ, Dept Econ, Princeton, NJ 08544 USA.
   [Hassler, John; Krusell, Per] Stockholm Univ, IIES, SE-10691 Stockholm, Sweden.
   [Tsyvinski, Aleh] Yale Univ, Dept Econ, New Haven, CT 06511 USA.
C3 Princeton University; Stockholm University; Yale University
RP Golosov, M (corresponding author), Princeton Univ, Dept Econ, 111 Fisher Hall, Princeton, NJ 08544 USA.
EM golosov@princeton.edu; john@hassler.se; per.krusell@iies.su.se;
   a.tsyvinski@yale.edu
RI Tsyvinski, Aleh/T-3287-2019
FU Direct For Social, Behav & Economic Scie; Divn Of Social and Economic
   Sciences [0748815] Funding Source: National Science Foundation
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NR 71
TC 574
Z9 766
U1 21
U2 374
PU WILEY
PI HOBOKEN
PA 111 RIVER ST, HOBOKEN 07030-5774, NJ USA
SN 0012-9682
EI 1468-0262
J9 ECONOMETRICA
JI Econometrica
PD JAN
PY 2014
VL 82
IS 1
BP 41
EP 88
DI 10.3982/ECTA10217
PG 48
WC Economics; Mathematics, Interdisciplinary Applications; Social Sciences,
   Mathematical Methods; Statistics & Probability
WE Science Citation Index Expanded (SCI-EXPANDED); Social Science Citation Index (SSCI)
SC Business & Economics; Mathematics; Mathematical Methods In Social
   Sciences
GA AA7KQ
UT WOS:000331276700002
DA 2026-06-14
ER

PT J
AU Crost, B
   Traeger, CP
AF Crost, Benjamin
   Traeger, Christian P.
TI Optimal climate policy: Uncertainty versus Monte Carlo
SO ECONOMICS LETTERS
LA English
DT Article
DE Climate change; Uncertainty; Integrated assessment; Monte Carlo; Risk
   aversion; DICE
ID RISK; SUBSTITUTION
AB The integrated assessment literature frequently replicates uncertainty by averaging Monte Carlo runs of deterministic models. This Monte Carlo analysis is, in essence, an averaged sensitivity analyses. The approach resolves all uncertainty before the first time period, drawing parameters from a distribution before initiating a given model run. This paper analyzes how closely a Monte Carlo based derivation of optimal policies is to the truly optimal policy, in which the decision maker acknowledges the full set of possible future trajectories in every period. Our analysis uses a stochastic dynamic programming version of the widespread integrated assessment model DICE, and focuses on damage uncertainty. We show that the optimizing Monte Carlo approach is not only off in magnitude, but can even lead to a wrong sign of the uncertainty effect. Moreover, it can lead to contradictory policy advice, suggesting a more stringent climate policy in terms of the abatement rate and a less stringent one in terms of the expenditure on abatement. (C) 2013 Published by Elsevier B.V.
C1 [Crost, Benjamin] UC Denver, Dept Econ, Denver, CO USA.
   [Traeger, Christian P.] Univ Calif Berkeley, Dept Agr & Resource Econ, Berkeley, CA USA.
C3 University of California System; University of California Berkeley
RP Traeger, CP (corresponding author), Univ Calif Berkeley, Dept Agr & Resource Econ, 207 Giannini Hall 3310, Berkeley, CA 94720 USA.
EM traeger@berkeley.edu
OI Crost, Benjamin/0000-0001-9483-9680
FU Directorate For Geosciences [1240507] Funding Source: National Science
   Foundation
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NR 27
TC 42
Z9 50
U1 1
U2 28
PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE SA
PI LAUSANNE
PA PO BOX 564, 1001 LAUSANNE, SWITZERLAND
SN 0165-1765
EI 1873-7374
J9 ECON LETT
JI Econ. Lett.
PD SEP
PY 2013
VL 120
IS 3
BP 552
EP 558
DI 10.1016/j.econlet.2013.05.019
PG 7
WC Economics
WE Social Science Citation Index (SSCI)
SC Business & Economics
GA 212PE
UT WOS:000323994500045
DA 2026-06-14
ER

PT J
AU Ackerman, F
   Stanton, EA
   Bueno, R
AF Ackerman, Frank
   Stanton, Elizabeth A.
   Bueno, Ramon
TI CRED: A new model of climate and development
SO ECOLOGICAL ECONOMICS
LA English
DT Article
DE Climate economics; Global equity; Integrated assessment modeling
ID ABATE CARBON EMISSIONS
AB This paper describes a new model, Climate and Regional Economics of Development (CRED), which is designed to analyze the economics of climate and development choices. Its principal innovations are the treatment of global equity, calculation of the optimum interregional flows of resources, and use of McKinsey marginal abatement cost curves to project the cost of mitigation.
   The unconstrained, optimal climate policy in CRED involves very large capital flows from high-income to developing countries, to an extent that might be considered politically unrealistic. Under more realistic constraints, climate outcomes are generally worse; climate stabilization requires either moderate capital flows to developing countries, or a very low discount rate. In CRED, more equitable scenarios have better climate outcomes; the challenge of climate policy is to persuade high-income countries to accept the need for both international equity and climate protection.
   The paper ends with an agenda for further model development. A technical appendix describes the model relationships and parameters in greater detail. (C) 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
EM Frank.Ackerman@sei-us.org; Liz.Stanton@sei-us.org;
   Ramon.Bueno@sei-us.org
OI Ackerman, Frank/0000-0002-7940-482X
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NR 19
TC 17
Z9 22
U1 0
U2 38
PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE BV
PI AMSTERDAM
PA PO BOX 211, 1000 AE AMSTERDAM, NETHERLANDS
SN 0921-8009
EI 1873-6106
J9 ECOL ECON
JI Ecol. Econ.
PD JAN
PY 2013
VL 85
BP 166
EP 176
DI 10.1016/j.ecolecon.2011.04.006
PG 11
WC Ecology; Economics; Environmental Sciences; Environmental Studies
WE Science Citation Index Expanded (SCI-EXPANDED); Social Science Citation Index (SSCI)
SC Environmental Sciences & Ecology; Business & Economics
GA 086GN
UT WOS:000314672200023
DA 2026-06-14
ER

PT J
AU Botzen, WJW
   van den Bergh, JCJM
AF Botzen, W. J. Wouter
   van den Bergh, Jeroen C. J. M.
TI How sensitive is Nordhaus to Weitzman? Climate policy in DICE with an
   alternative damage function
SO ECONOMICS LETTERS
LA English
DT Article
DE Climate change; DICE model; Stern discounting
ID UNCERTAINTY; ECONOMICS
AB The damage function in the famous climate-economy model DICE has received much criticism. Weitzman (2010) has proposed an alternative approach that gives more serious attention to climate change impacts for larger temperature increases. We calculate optimal climate policy with DICE using this approach. Optimal emission abatement trajectories turn out to be very sensitive to the damage specification. We summarise the difference between the associated optimal abatement costs in NPV terms. (C) 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
C1 [Botzen, W. J. Wouter; van den Bergh, Jeroen C. J. M.] Vrije Univ Amsterdam, Inst Environm Studies, NL-1081 HV Amsterdam, Netherlands.
   [van den Bergh, Jeroen C. J. M.] ICREA, Barcelona, Spain.
   [van den Bergh, Jeroen C. J. M.] Univ Autonoma Barcelona, Inst Environm Sci & Technol, Barcelona, Spain.
   [van den Bergh, Jeroen C. J. M.] Univ Autonoma Barcelona, Dept Econ & Econ Hist, Barcelona, Spain.
   [van den Bergh, Jeroen C. J. M.] Vrije Univ Amsterdam, Fac Econ & Business Adm, NL-1081 HV Amsterdam, Netherlands.
C3 Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam; ICREA; Autonomous University of Barcelona;
   Autonomous University of Barcelona; Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam
RP Botzen, WJW (corresponding author), Vrije Univ Amsterdam, Inst Environm Studies, De Boelelaan 1087, NL-1081 HV Amsterdam, Netherlands.
EM wouter.botzen@vu.nl
RI van den Bergh, Jeroen/C-7103-2008; Botzen, Wouter/L-3123-2013
OI van den Bergh, Jeroen/0000-0003-3415-3083; Botzen,
   Wouter/0000-0002-8563-4963
FU ICREA Funding Source: Custom
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NR 13
TC 43
Z9 47
U1 0
U2 24
PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE SA
PI LAUSANNE
PA PO BOX 564, 1001 LAUSANNE, SWITZERLAND
SN 0165-1765
J9 ECON LETT
JI Econ. Lett.
PD OCT
PY 2012
VL 117
IS 1
BP 372
EP 374
DI 10.1016/j.econlet.2012.05.032
PG 3
WC Economics
WE Social Science Citation Index (SSCI)
SC Business & Economics
GA 015GO
UT WOS:000309434600100
DA 2026-06-14
ER

PT J
AU Kvale, K
   Zickfeld, K
   Bruckner, T
   Meissner, KJ
   Tanaka, K
   Weaver, AJ
AF Kvale, K.
   Zickfeld, K.
   Bruckner, T.
   Meissner, K. J.
   Tanaka, K.
   Weaver, A. J.
TI Carbon Dioxide Emission Pathways Avoiding Dangerous Ocean Impacts
SO WEATHER CLIMATE AND SOCIETY
LA English
DT Article
ID CLIMATE-CHANGE; ANTHROPOGENIC INTERFERENCE; INTEGRATED ASSESSMENT;
   SENSITIVITY-ANALYSIS; ANTARCTIC ICE; RISK; SYSTEM; CIRCULATION; MODEL;
   STRATEGIES
AB Anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases could lead to undesirable effects on oceans in coming centuries. Drawing on recommendations published by the German Advisory Council on Global Change, levels of unacceptable global marine change (so-called guardrails) are defined in terms of global mean temperature, sea level rise, and ocean acidification. A global-mean climate model [the Aggregated Carbon Cycle, Atmospheric Chemistry and Climate Model (ACC2)] is coupled with an economic module [taken from the Dynamic Integrated Climate-Economy Model (DICE)] to conduct a cost-effectiveness analysis to derive CO2 emission pathways that both minimize abatement costs and are compatible with these guardrails. Additionally, the "tolerable windows approach" is used to calculate a range of CO2 emissions paths that obey the guardrails as well as a restriction on mitigation rate. Prospects of meeting the global mean temperature change guardrail (2 degrees and 0.2 degrees C decade(-1) relative to preindustrial) depend strongly on assumed values for climate sensitivity: at climate sensitivities >3 degrees C the guardrail cannot be attained under any CO2 emissions reduction strategy without mitigation of non-CO2 greenhouse gases. The ocean acidification guardrail (0.2 unit pH decline relative to preindustrial) is less restrictive than the absolute temperature guardrail at climate sensitivities >2.5 degrees C but becomes more constraining at lower climate sensitivities. The sea level rise and rate of rise guardrails (1 m and 5 cm decade(-1)) are substantially less stringent for ice sheet sensitivities derived in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fourth Assessment Report, but they may already be committed to violation if ice sheet sensitivities consistent with semiempirical sea level rise projections are assumed.
C1 [Kvale, K.; Zickfeld, K.; Meissner, K. J.; Weaver, A. J.] Univ Victoria, Victoria, BC, Canada.
   [Bruckner, T.] Univ Leipzig, Inst Infrastruct & Resources Management, Leipzig, Germany.
   [Tanaka, K.] Int Inst Appl Syst Anal, A-2361 Laxenburg, Austria.
   [Tanaka, K.] Ctr Int Climate & Environm Res, Oslo, Norway.
   [Tanaka, K.] ETH, Inst Atmospher & Climate Sci, Zurich, Switzerland.
C3 University of Victoria; Leipzig University; International Institute for
   Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA); Swiss Federal Institutes of Technology
   Domain; ETH Zurich
RP Kvale, K (corresponding author), Univ New S Wales, Climate Change Res Ctr, Level 4 Mathews Bldg, Sydney, NSW 2052, Australia.
EM k.kvale@unsw.edu.au
RI Tanaka, Katsumasa/B-8528-2013; Kvale, Karin/T-1231-2018; Zickfeld,
   Kirsten/JVN-0763-2024; Weaver, Andrew/E-7590-2011
OI Tanaka, Katsumasa/0000-0001-9601-6442; Kvale, Karin/0000-0001-8043-5431;
   Meissner, Katrin/0000-0002-0716-7415; Bruckner,
   Thomas/0000-0002-0355-5533; 
FU Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada (NSERC);
   NSERC; Canadian Foundation for Climate and Atmospheric Sciences;
   European Community [N255568]
FX The authors thank Ed Wiebe and Michael Eby for technical support. KJM is
   grateful for research grant support under the University Faculty Award
   program and the Discovery Program from the Natural Sciences and
   Engineering Research Council of Canada (NSERC). We are grateful for
   funding support from NSERC and the Canadian Foundation for Climate and
   Atmospheric Sciences. K. Tanaka is partly supported by the Marie Curie
   Intra-European Fellowship within the 7th European Community Framework
   Programme (Proposal N255568 under FP7-PEOPLE-2009-IEF).
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NR 85
TC 5
Z9 5
U1 0
U2 34
PU AMER METEOROLOGICAL SOC
PI BOSTON
PA 45 BEACON ST, BOSTON, MA 02108-3693, UNITED STATES
SN 1948-8327
EI 1948-8335
J9 WEATHER CLIM SOC
JI Weather Clim. Soc.
PD JUL
PY 2012
VL 4
IS 3
BP 212
EP 229
DI 10.1175/WCAS-D-11-00030.1
PG 18
WC Environmental Studies; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
WE Science Citation Index Expanded (SCI-EXPANDED); Social Science Citation Index (SSCI)
SC Environmental Sciences & Ecology; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
GA 017ZN
UT WOS:000309629800006
OA Green Submitted, Bronze
DA 2026-06-14
ER

PT J
AU McInerney, D
   Lempert, R
   Keller, K
AF McInerney, David
   Lempert, Robert
   Keller, Klaus
TI What are robust strategies in the face of uncertain climate threshold
   responses? Robust climate strategies
SO CLIMATIC CHANGE
LA English
DT Article
ID MERIDIONAL OVERTURNING CIRCULATION; THERMOHALINE CIRCULATION; IMPRECISE
   PROBABILITIES; CONDITIONAL VALUE; RISK; OPTIMIZATION; SENSITIVITY;
   PORTFOLIO; ECONOMICS; MODEL
AB We use an integrated assessment model of climate change to analyze how alternative decision-making criteria affect preferred investments into greenhouse gas mitigation, the distribution of outcomes, the robustness of the strategies, and the economic value of information. We define robustness as trading a small decrease in a strategy's expected performance for a significant increase in a strategy's performance in the worst cases. Specifically, we modify the Dynamic Integrated model of Climate and the Economy (DICE-07) to include a simple representation of a climate threshold response, parametric uncertainty, structural uncertainty, learning, and different decision-making criteria. Economic analyses of climate change strategies typically adopt the expected utility maximization (EUM) framework. We compare EUM with two decision criteria adopted from the finance literature, namely Limited Degree of Confidence (LDC) and Safety First (SF). Both criteria increase the relative weight of the performance under the worst-case scenarios compared to EUM. We show that the LDC and SF criteria provide a computationally feasible foundation for identifying greenhouse gas mitigation strategies that may prove more robust than those identified by the EUM criterion. More robust strategies show higher near-term investments in emissions abatement. Reducing uncertainty has a higher economic value of information for the LDC and SF decision criteria than for EUM.
C1 [McInerney, David] Univ Chicago, Dept Geophys Sci, Chicago, IL 60637 USA.
   [Lempert, Robert] RAND Corp, Frederick S Pardee Ctr Longer Range Global Policy, Santa Monica, CA 90401 USA.
   [Keller, Klaus] Penn State, Dept Geosci, University Pk, PA 16802 USA.
   [Keller, Klaus] Penn State, Earth & Environm Syst Inst, University Pk, PA 16802 USA.
C3 University of Chicago; RAND Corporation; Pennsylvania Commonwealth
   System of Higher Education (PCSHE); Pennsylvania State University;
   Pennsylvania State University - University Park; Pennsylvania
   Commonwealth System of Higher Education (PCSHE); Pennsylvania State
   University; Pennsylvania State University - University Park
RP McInerney, D (corresponding author), Univ Chicago, Dept Geophys Sci, 5734 S Ellis Ave, Chicago, IL 60637 USA.
EM dmcinern@geosci.uchicago.edu; lempert@rand.org; klaus@psu.edu
RI /A-6742-2013; Lempert, Robert/HKW-3892-2023; McInerney,
   David/I-4896-2015
OI McInerney, David/0000-0003-4876-8281; Keller, Klaus/0000-0002-5451-8687
FU U.S. National Science Foundation [SES-0345925]; Penn State Center for
   Climate Risk Management
FX We thank David Budescu, Nathan Urban, Marlos Goes, and Brian Tuttle for
   invaluable discussions. Partial funding from the U.S. National Science
   Foundation (Grant SES-0345925), and the Penn State Center for Climate
   Risk Management, is gratefully acknowledged. Comments from the editors
   and three anonymous reviewers helped to improve the exposition of the
   manuscript considerably. Of course, all errors and opinions are ours.
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NR 68
TC 105
Z9 114
U1 1
U2 48
PU SPRINGER
PI DORDRECHT
PA VAN GODEWIJCKSTRAAT 30, 3311 GZ DORDRECHT, NETHERLANDS
SN 0165-0009
EI 1573-1480
J9 CLIMATIC CHANGE
JI Clim. Change
PD JUN
PY 2012
VL 112
IS 3-4
BP 547
EP 568
DI 10.1007/s10584-011-0377-1
PG 22
WC Environmental Sciences; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
WE Science Citation Index Expanded (SCI-EXPANDED); Social Science Citation Index (SSCI)
SC Environmental Sciences & Ecology; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
GA 943FJ
UT WOS:000304105600001
DA 2026-06-14
ER

PT J
AU Ackerman, F
   Stanton, EA
AF Ackerman, Frank
   Stanton, Elizabeth A.
TI Climate Risks and Carbon Prices: Revising the Social Cost of Carbon
SO ECONOMICS-THE OPEN ACCESS OPEN-ASSESSMENT E-JOURNAL
LA English
DT Article
DE Social cost of carbon; cost-benefit analysis; climate policy; climate
   economics
ID STABILIZATION; ECONOMICS; SCENARIOS; SYSTEM
AB The social cost of carbon - or marginal damage caused by an additional ton of carbon dioxide emissions - has been estimated by a U.S. government working group at $21/tCO(2) in 2010. That calculation, however, omits many of the biggest risks associated with climate change, and downplays the impact of current emissions on future generations. Our reanalysis explores the effects of uncertainty about climate sensitivity, the shape of the damage function, and the discount rate. We show that the social cost of carbon is uncertain across a broad range, and could be much higher than $21/tCO(2). In our case combining high climate sensitivity, high damages, and a low discount rate, the social cost of carbon could be almost $900/tCO(2) in 2010, rising to $1,500/tCO(2) in 2050.
   The most ambitious scenarios for eliminating carbon dioxide emissions as rapidly as technologically feasible (reaching zero or negative net global emissions by the end of this century) require spending up to $150 to $500 per ton of reductions of carbon dioxide emissions by 2050. Using a reasonable set of alternative assumptions, therefore, the damages from a ton of carbon dioxide emissions in 2050 could exceed the cost of reducing emissions at the maximum technically feasible rate. Once this is the case, the exact value of the social cost of carbon loses importance: the clear policy prescription is to reduce emissions as rapidly as possible, and cost-effectiveness analysis offers better insights for climate policy than cost-benefit analysis.
C1 [Ackerman, Frank; Stanton, Elizabeth A.] US Ctr, Stockholm Environm Inst, Somerville, MA 02144 USA.
RP Ackerman, F (corresponding author), US Ctr, Stockholm Environm Inst, 11 Curtis Ave, Somerville, MA 02144 USA.
EM frank.ackerman@sei-us.org
OI Ackerman, Frank/0000-0002-7940-482X
CR Ackerman F., 2010, The Social Cost of Carbon
   [Anonymous], 2008, EN TECHN PERSP 2008
   [Anonymous], 2010, Social Cost of Carbon for Regulatory Impact Analysis under Executive Order 12866
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NR 28
TC 152
Z9 185
U1 2
U2 61
PU DE GRUYTER POLAND SP Z O O
PI WARSAW
PA BOGUMILA ZUGA 32A STR, 01-811 WARSAW, MAZOVIA, POLAND
SN 1864-6042
J9 ECONOMICS-KIEL
JI Economics-Kiel
PD APR 4
PY 2012
VL 6
AR 201210
DI 10.5018/economics-ejournal.ja.2012-10
PG 26
WC Economics
WE Social Science Citation Index (SSCI)
SC Business & Economics
GA 928BS
UT WOS:000302955200001
OA Green Submitted, gold
DA 2026-06-14
ER

PT J
AU Gerlagh, R
   van der Zwaan, B
AF Gerlagh, Reyer
   van der Zwaan, Bob
TI Evaluating Uncertain CO2 Abatement over the Very Long Term
SO ENVIRONMENTAL MODELING & ASSESSMENT
LA English
DT Article
DE Climate change; Carbon dioxide emissions; Climate control; CO2 capture
   and storage (CCS); Geological leakage
ID CLIMATE; STORAGE; LEAKAGE; MODEL; SENSITIVITY; CAPTURE
AB Climate change research with the economic methodology of cost-benefit analysis is challenging because of valuation and ethical issues associated with the long delays between CO2 emissions and much of their potential damages, typically of several centuries. The large uncertainties with which climate change impacts are known today and the possibly temporary nature of some envisaged CO2 abatement options exacerbate this challenge. For example, potential leakage of CO2 from geological reservoirs, after this greenhouse gas has been stored artificially underground for climate control reasons, requires an analysis in which the uncertain climatic consequences of leakage are valued over many centuries. We here present a discussion of some of the relevant questions in this context and provide calculations with the top-down energy-environment-economy model DEMETER. Given the long-term features of the climate change conundrum as well as of technologies that can contribute to its solution, we considered it necessary extending DEMETER to cover a period from today until the year 3000, a time span so far hardly investigated with integrated assessment models of climate change.
C1 [Gerlagh, Reyer] Tilburg Univ, Dept Econ, NL-5000 LE Tilburg, Netherlands.
   [van der Zwaan, Bob] Energy Res Ctr Netherlands ECN, Policy Studies Dept, Amsterdam, Netherlands.
   [van der Zwaan, Bob] Columbia Univ, Earth Inst, Lenfest Ctr Sustainable Energy, New York, NY USA.
   [van der Zwaan, Bob] Johns Hopkins Univ, Sch Adv Int Studies, Bologna, Italy.
C3 Tilburg University; Columbia University; Johns Hopkins University
RP Gerlagh, R (corresponding author), Tilburg Univ, Dept Econ, NL-5000 LE Tilburg, Netherlands.
EM r.gerlagh@uvt.nl
RI ; van der Zwaan, Bob/F-4070-2015
OI Gerlagh, Reyer/0000-0001-9781-9212; van der Zwaan,
   Bob/0000-0001-5871-7643
FU European Community through the PLANETS [211859]; ECO2 project
FX The research leading to these results has received funding from the
   European Community's Seventh Framework Programme through the PLANETS
   project (FP7/2007-2011, grant agreement no. 211859) and ECO2 project.
   Feedback on this subject matter is acknowledged from several colleagues,
   amongst whom in particular Klaus Lackner, as well as the elaborate
   comments to this paper from two anonymous referees.
CR [Anonymous], 2006, EC CLIMATE CHANGE ST, DOI DOI 10.1378/CHEST.128.5
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NR 38
TC 15
Z9 16
U1 0
U2 13
PU SPRINGER
PI DORDRECHT
PA VAN GODEWIJCKSTRAAT 30, 3311 GZ DORDRECHT, NETHERLANDS
SN 1420-2026
EI 1573-2967
J9 ENVIRON MODEL ASSESS
JI Environ. Model. Assess.
PD MAR
PY 2012
VL 17
IS 1-2
BP 137
EP 148
DI 10.1007/s10666-011-9280-4
PG 12
WC Environmental Sciences
WE Science Citation Index Expanded (SCI-EXPANDED)
SC Environmental Sciences & Ecology
GA 873BK
UT WOS:000298855500010
OA Green Submitted, Green Accepted, hybrid
DA 2026-06-14
ER

PT J
AU Goes, M
   Tuana, N
   Keller, K
AF Goes, Marlos
   Tuana, Nancy
   Keller, Klaus
TI The economics (or lack thereof) of aerosol geoengineering
SO CLIMATIC CHANGE
LA English
DT Article
ID COST-BENEFIT-ANALYSIS; CLIMATE-CHANGE; OZONE DEPLETION; UNCERTAINTY;
   RADIATION; CIRCULATION; SENSITIVITY; THRESHOLDS; HEATWAVE; IMPACTS
AB Anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions are changing the Earth's climate and impose substantial risks for current and future generations. What are scientifically sound, economically viable, and ethically defendable strategies to manage these climate risks? Ratified international agreements call for a reduction of greenhouse gas emissions to avoid dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system. Recent proposals, however, call for a different approach: to geoengineer climate by injecting aerosol precursors into the stratosphere. Published economic studies typically neglect the risks of aerosol geoengineering due to (i) the potential for a failure to sustain the aerosol forcing and (ii) the negative impacts associated with the aerosol forcing. Here we use a simple integrated assessment model of climate change to analyze potential economic impacts of aerosol geoengineering strategies over a wide range of uncertain parameters such as climate sensitivity, the economic damages due to climate change, and the economic damages due to aerosol geoengineering forcing. The simplicity of the model provides the advantages of parsimony and transparency, but it also imposes severe caveats on the interpretation of the results. For example, the analysis is based on a globally aggregated model and is hence silent on intragenerational distribution of costs and benefits. In addition, the analysis neglects the effects of learning and has a very simplistic representation of climate change impacts. Our analysis suggests three main conclusions. First, substituting aerosol geoengineering for CO2 abatement can be an economically ineffective strategy. One key to this finding is that a failure to sustain the aerosol forcing can lead to sizeable and abrupt climatic changes. The monetary damages due to such a discontinuous aerosol geoengineering can dominate the cost-benefit analysis because the monetary damages of climate change are expected to increase with the rate of change. Second, the relative contribution of aerosol geoengineering to an economically optimal portfolio hinges critically on, thus far, deeply uncertain estimates of the damages due to aerosol forcing. Even if we assume that aerosol forcing could be deployed continuously, the aerosol geoengineering does not considerably displace CO2 abatement in the simple economic optimal growth model until the damages due to the aerosol forcing are rather low. Third, substituting aerosol geoengineering for greenhouse gas emission abatement can fail an ethical test regarding intergenerational justice. Substituting aerosol geoengineering for greenhouse gas emissions abatements constitutes a conscious risk transfer to future generations, in violation of principles of intergenerational justice which demands that present generations should not create benefits for themselves in exchange for burdens on future generations.
C1 [Goes, Marlos; Keller, Klaus] Penn State Univ, Dept Geosci, University Pk, PA 16802 USA.
   [Keller, Klaus] Earth & Environm Syst Inst, University Pk, PA USA.
   [Goes, Marlos] Univ Miami, NOAA, Atlantic Oceanog & Meteorol Lab, Cooperat Inst Marine & Atmospher Sci, Miami, FL 33149 USA.
   [Tuana, Nancy] Penn State Univ, Dept Philosophy, University Pk, PA 16802 USA.
C3 Pennsylvania Commonwealth System of Higher Education (PCSHE);
   Pennsylvania State University; Pennsylvania State University -
   University Park; University of Miami; National Oceanic Atmospheric Admin
   (NOAA) - USA; Atlantic Oceanographic & Meteorological Laboratory (AOML);
   Pennsylvania Commonwealth System of Higher Education (PCSHE);
   Pennsylvania State University; Pennsylvania State University -
   University Park
RP Keller, K (corresponding author), Penn State Univ, Dept Geosci, 436 Deike, University Pk, PA 16802 USA.
EM marlos.goes@noaa.gov; ntuana@psu.edu; klaus@psu.edu
RI ; goes, marlos/B-4273-2011; Tuana, Nancy/IAQ-6965-2023; /A-6742-2013
OI Keller, Klaus/0000-0002-5451-8687; goes, marlos/0000-0001-5874-8079; 
FU National Science Foundation; Penn State Center for Climate Risk
   Management; Penn State Rock Ethics Institute
FX We thank Seth Baum, David Budescu, Ken Davis, Robert Lempert, Felix
   Tintelnot, Sarah Polborn, Michael Oppenheimer, Nathan Urban, Elmar
   Kriegler, as well as three anonymous reviewers for helpful discussions.
   Brian Tuttle helped with editing and proofreading. The study was
   partially supported by the National Science Foundation, the Penn State
   Center for Climate Risk Management, and the Penn State Rock Ethics
   Institute. Any opinions and errors are those of the authors.
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NR 96
TC 103
Z9 122
U1 0
U2 48
PU SPRINGER
PI DORDRECHT
PA VAN GODEWIJCKSTRAAT 30, 3311 GZ DORDRECHT, NETHERLANDS
SN 0165-0009
EI 1573-1480
J9 CLIMATIC CHANGE
JI Clim. Change
PD DEC
PY 2011
VL 109
IS 3-4
BP 719
EP 744
DI 10.1007/s10584-010-9961-z
PG 26
WC Environmental Sciences; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
WE Science Citation Index Expanded (SCI-EXPANDED); Social Science Citation Index (SSCI)
SC Environmental Sciences & Ecology; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
GA 852IH
UT WOS:000297350700026
DA 2026-06-14
ER

PT J
AU Bollen, J
   Hers, S
   van der Zwaan, B
AF Bollen, Johannes
   Hers, Sebastiaan
   van der Zwaan, Bob
TI An integrated assessment of climate change, air pollution, and energy
   security policy
SO ENERGY POLICY
LA English
DT Article
DE Climate change; Air pollution; Energy security
AB This article presents an integrated assessment of climate change, air pollution, and energy security policy. Basis of our analysis is the MERGE model, designed to study the interaction between the global economy, energy use, and the impacts of climate change. For our purposes we expanded MERGE with expressions that quantify damages incurred to regional economies as a result of air pollution and lack of energy security. One of the main findings of our cost-benefit analysis is that energy security policy alone does not decrease the use of oil: global oil consumption is only delayed by several decades and oil reserves are still practically depleted before the end of the 21st century. If, on the other hand, energy security policy is integrated with optimal climate change and air pollution policy, the world's oil reserves will not be depleted, at least not before our modeling horizon well into the 22nd century: total cumulative demand for oil decreases by about 24%. More generally, we demonstrate that there are multiple other benefits of combining climate change, air pollution, and energy security policies and exploiting the possible synergies between them. These benefits can be large: for Europe the achievable CO2 emission abatement and oil consumption reduction levels are significantly deeper for integrated policy than when a strategy is adopted in which one of the three policies is omitted. Integrated optimal energy policy can reduce the number of premature deaths from air pollution by about 14,000 annually in Europe and over 3 million per year globally, by lowering the chronic exposure to ambient particulate matter. Only the optimal strategy combining the three types of energy policy can constrain the global average atmospheric temperature increase to a limit of 3 degrees C with respect to the pre-industrial level. (C) 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
C1 [van der Zwaan, Bob] ECN, Policy Studies Dept, Energy Res Ctr Netherlands, NL-1043 NT Amsterdam, Netherlands.
   [Bollen, Johannes] CPB Netherlands Bur Econ Policy Anal, NL-2508 GM The Hague, Netherlands.
   [Hers, Sebastiaan] KYOS Energy Consulting, NL-2011 ND Haarlem, Netherlands.
   [van der Zwaan, Bob] Columbia Univ, Earth Inst, Lenfest Ctr Sustainable Energy, New York, NY 10027 USA.
C3 CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy; Columbia University
RP van der Zwaan, B (corresponding author), ECN, Policy Studies Dept, Energy Res Ctr Netherlands, Radarweg 60, NL-1043 NT Amsterdam, Netherlands.
EM vanderzwaan@ecn.nl
RI van der Zwaan, Bob/F-4070-2015
OI van der Zwaan, Bob/0000-0001-5871-7643
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NR 21
TC 106
Z9 123
U1 1
U2 81
PU ELSEVIER SCI LTD
PI OXFORD
PA THE BOULEVARD, LANGFORD LANE, KIDLINGTON, OXFORD OX5 1GB, OXON, ENGLAND
SN 0301-4215
EI 1873-6777
J9 ENERG POLICY
JI Energy Policy
PD AUG
PY 2010
VL 38
IS 8
BP 4021
EP 4030
DI 10.1016/j.enpol.2010.03.026
PG 10
WC Economics; Energy & Fuels; Environmental Sciences; Environmental Studies
WE Science Citation Index Expanded (SCI-EXPANDED); Social Science Citation Index (SSCI)
SC Business & Economics; Energy & Fuels; Environmental Sciences & Ecology
GA 615EY
UT WOS:000279117500018
DA 2026-06-14
ER

PT J
AU Gerst, MD
   Howarth, RB
   Borsuk, ME
AF Gerst, Michael D.
   Howarth, Richard B.
   Borsuk, Mark E.
TI Accounting for the risk of extreme outcomes in an integrated assessment
   of climate change
SO ENERGY POLICY
LA English
DT Article
DE Uncertainty; Cost-benefit analysis; Climate change
ID ECONOMICS
AB The potential for climate catastrophes, represented by 'fat-tailed' distributions on consequences, has attracted much attention recently. To date, however, most integrated assessment models have either been largely deterministic or deterministic with ex-post sensitivity analysis. The conclusions of such analyses are likely to differ from those employing models that accurately characterize society's joint preferences concerning time and risk, especially when distributions are fat-tailed. Using a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model adapted from Nordhaus's DICE model, we show that failing to accurately account for risk can lead to substantial underestimation of the net benefits of greenhouse gas abatement. A robust finding of our analysis is that a lenient 'policy ramp' emissions reduction strategy is preferable over a more aggressive strategy such as that advocated by the Stern Review only if the model does not account for uncertainty about the climate system, the carbon cycle and economic damages, and specifies a consumption discount rate that is counterfactually higher than the historical global weighted average cost of capital of 4.0%. In the debate over uncertainty and time discounting, our results imply that what matters most in climate change assessment is the inclusion and particular specification of uncertainty rather than the precise choice of discount rate. (C) 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
C1 [Gerst, Michael D.; Borsuk, Mark E.] Dartmouth Coll, Thayer Sch Engn, Hanover, NH 03755 USA.
   [Howarth, Richard B.] Dartmouth Coll, Environm Studies Program, Hanover, NH 03755 USA.
C3 Dartmouth College; Dartmouth College
RP Borsuk, ME (corresponding author), Dartmouth Coll, Thayer Sch Engn, Hanover, NH 03755 USA.
EM mark.borsuk@dartmouth.edu
RI Borsuk, Mark/AAV-1663-2020
OI Borsuk, Mark/0000-0002-5121-1110; Howarth, Richard/0000-0003-3182-7345;
   Gerst, Michael/0000-0002-5281-3228
FU United States Environmental Protection Agency [RD-83366601-0]
FX Although the research described in this article has been funded wholly
   or in part by the United States Environmental Protection Agency through
   grant #RD-83366601-0 to Borsuk and Howarth, it has not been subjected to
   the Agency s required peer and policy review and therefore does not
   necessarily reflect the views of the Agency, and no official endorsement
   should be inferred.
CR ACKERMAN F, ECOLOGICAL IN PRESS
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NR 35
TC 20
Z9 23
U1 0
U2 26
PU ELSEVIER SCI LTD
PI OXFORD
PA THE BOULEVARD, LANGFORD LANE, KIDLINGTON, OXFORD OX5 1GB, OXON, ENGLAND
SN 0301-4215
EI 1873-6777
J9 ENERG POLICY
JI Energy Policy
PD AUG
PY 2010
VL 38
IS 8
BP 4540
EP 4548
DI 10.1016/j.enpol.2010.04.008
PG 9
WC Economics; Energy & Fuels; Environmental Sciences; Environmental Studies
WE Science Citation Index Expanded (SCI-EXPANDED); Social Science Citation Index (SSCI)
SC Business & Economics; Energy & Fuels; Environmental Sciences & Ecology
GA 615EY
UT WOS:000279117500069
DA 2026-06-14
ER

PT J
AU Ackerman, F
   Stanton, EA
   Bueno, R
AF Ackerman, Frank
   Stanton, Elizabeth A.
   Bueno, Ramon
TI Fat tails, exponents, extreme uncertainty: Simulating catastrophe in
   DICE
SO ECOLOGICAL ECONOMICS
LA English
DT Article
DE Climate economics; Catastrophic risk; Climate sensitivity; Integrated
   assessment models; DICE model; Monte Carlo analysis
ID CLIMATE-CHANGE; ECONOMICS
AB The problem of low-probability, catastrophic risk is increasingly central to discussion of climate science and policy. But the integrated assessment models (IAMs) of climate economics rarely incorporate this possibility. What modifications are needed to analyze catastrophic economic risks in an IAM? We explore this question using DICE, a well-known IAM. We examine the implications of a fat-tailed probability distribution for the climate sensitivity parameter, a focus of recent work by Martin Weitzman, and the shape of the damage function, one of the issues raised by the Stern Review. Forecasts of disastrous economic outcomes in DICE can result from the interaction of these two innovations, but not from either one alone. (C) 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
C1 [Ackerman, Frank; Stanton, Elizabeth A.; Bueno, Ramon] Stockholm Environm Inst, Somerville, MA 02114 USA.
RP Ackerman, F (corresponding author), Stockholm Environm Inst, 11 Curtis Ave, Somerville, MA 02114 USA.
EM frank.ackerman@sei-us.org; liz.stanton@sei-us.org;
   ramon.bueno@sei-us.org
OI Ackerman, Frank/0000-0002-7940-482X
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   Ackerman F, 2006, CLIM POLICY, V6, P509
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   Ackerman F, 2009, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V95, P297, DOI 10.1007/s10584-009-9570-x
   Baer P., 2007, The Worth of an Ice-Sheet - A Critique of the Treatment of Catastrophic Impacts in the Stern Review
   Cline W., 1992, The economics of global warming
   Cline W.R., 2004, GLOBAL CRISES GLOBAL
   Dietz Simon., 2007, WORLD ECONOMICS, V8, P121
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   Hope C., 2006, Integrated Assessment Journal, V6, P19
   International Panel on Climate Change, 2007, CLIM CHANG 2007
   Newbold SC, 2009, ENVIRON RESOUR ECON, V44, P351, DOI 10.1007/s10640-009-9290-8
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   Nordhaus W.D., 2000, WARMING WORLD EC MOD
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NR 22
TC 93
Z9 115
U1 1
U2 32
PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE BV
PI AMSTERDAM
PA PO BOX 211, 1000 AE AMSTERDAM, NETHERLANDS
SN 0921-8009
J9 ECOL ECON
JI Ecol. Econ.
PD JUN 15
PY 2010
VL 69
IS 8
BP 1657
EP 1665
DI 10.1016/j.ecolecon.2010.03.013
PG 9
WC Ecology; Economics; Environmental Sciences; Environmental Studies
WE Science Citation Index Expanded (SCI-EXPANDED); Social Science Citation Index (SSCI)
SC Environmental Sciences & Ecology; Business & Economics
GA 614VQ
UT WOS:000279088300008
DA 2026-06-14
ER

PT S
AU Greiner, A
   Grüne, L
   Semmler, W
AF Greiner, Alfred
   Gruene, Lars
   Semmler, Willi
BE Cuaresma, JC
   Palokangas, T
   Taraasyev, A
TI Growth and Climate Change: Threshold and Multiple Equilibria
SO DYNAMIC SYSTEMS, ECONOMIC GROWTH, AND THE ENVIRONMENT
SE Dynamic Modeling and Econometrics of Economics and Finance
LA English
DT Article; Book Chapter
ID ADAPTIVE-GRID SCHEME; CIRCULATION
AB In this paper we analyze a basic growth model where we allow for global warming. As concerns global warming we assume that the climate system is characterized by feedback effects such that the ability of the earth to emit radiation to space is reduced as the global surface temperature rises. We first study the model assuming that abatement spending is fixed exogenously and demonstrate with the use of numerical examples that the augmented model may give rise to multiple equilibria and thresholds. Then, we analyze the social optimum where both consumption and abatement are set optimally and show that the long-run equilibrium is unique in this case. In the context of our model with multiple equilibria initial conditions are more important for policy actions than discount rates. Our analysis thus supports the view that policy actions against global warming are urgently needed.
C1 [Greiner, Alfred] Univ Bielefeld, Dept Business Adm & Econ, D-33501 Bielefeld, Germany.
   [Gruene, Lars] Univ Bayreuth, Math Inst, D-95440 Bayreuth, Germany.
   [Semmler, Willi] New Sch, New Sch Social Res, Dept Econ, New York, NY 10003 USA.
C3 University of Bielefeld; University of Bayreuth; The New School
RP Greiner, A (corresponding author), Univ Bielefeld, Dept Business Adm & Econ, POB 100131, D-33501 Bielefeld, Germany.
EM agreiner@wiwi.uni-bielefeld.de; lars.gruene@uni-bayreuth.de;
   semmlerw@newschool.edu
RI ; Grüne, Lars/G-3721-2014
OI Semmler, Willi/0000-0002-8384-8159; 
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NR 29
TC 14
Z9 22
U1 0
U2 1
PU SPRINGER
PI DORDRECHT
PA PO BOX 17, 3300 AA DORDRECHT, NETHERLANDS
SN 1566-0419
BN 978-3-642-02131-2
J9 DYNAM MOD ECON ECON
PY 2010
VL 12
BP 63
EP 78
DI 10.1007/978-3-642-02132-9_4
D2 10.1007/978-3-642-02132-9
PG 16
WC Economics; Environmental Sciences; Environmental Studies; Mathematics,
   Interdisciplinary Applications
WE Book Citation Index – Social Sciences & Humanities (BKCI-SSH); Book Citation Index – Science (BKCI-S)
SC Business & Economics; Environmental Sciences & Ecology; Mathematics
GA BME15
UT WOS:000271967100004
OA Green Accepted
DA 2026-06-14
ER

PT J
AU Kosugi, T
AF Kosugi, T.
TI Integrated Assessment for Setting Greenhouse Gas Emission Targets under
   the Condition of Great Uncertainty about the Probability and Impact of
   Abrupt Climate Change
SO JOURNAL OF ENVIRONMENTAL INFORMATICS
LA English
DT Article
DE catastrophe; climate change; global warming; hazard function; integrated
   assessment model; irreversibility; stochastic model
ID POLICY
AB In this paper the mid-21st-century target level for industrial carbon dioxide emissions is analyzed, taking into account the very large uncertainty about abrupt climate change. Following a brief review of integrated assessments of abrupt climate change, this study introduces an extension of DICE-2007, an integrated assessment model for climate policy analysis, which contains a hazard function that connects the rise in air temperature with the probability of abrupt change. The probability of abrupt change under a certain air temperature conditions and the economic impact of abrupt change are treated as widely variable parameters. Graphic indications of the combination of these parameters for several emission targets using the extended model show the necessity of developing adaptation measures to control the economic loss from abrupt change to below 8%, as well as to restrain global industrial carbon emissions in 2055 to the same level as those in 2005, assuming a most likely equilibrium climate sensitivity of 3 degrees C. Although a more stringent emissions target may be suggested in the spirit of precaution, it may lead to excessive carbon reduction from the viewpoint of cost-benefit balancing.
C1 Ritsumeikan Univ, Coll Policy Sci, Kita Ku, Kyoto 6038577, Japan.
C3 Ritsumeikan University
RP Kosugi, T (corresponding author), Ritsumeikan Univ, Coll Policy Sci, Kita Ku, 56-1 Toji In Kitamachi, Kyoto 6038577, Japan.
EM kosugi@sps.ritsumei.ac.jp
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NR 35
TC 12
Z9 12
U1 0
U2 21
PU INT SOC ENVIRON INFORM SCI
PI REGINA
PA 4246 ALBERT ST, REGINA, SASKATCHEWAN S4S 3R9, CANADA
SN 1726-2135
EI 1684-8799
J9 J ENVIRON INFORM
JI J. Environ. Inform.
PD DEC
PY 2009
VL 14
IS 2
BP 89
EP 99
DI 10.3808/jei.200900157
PG 11
WC Environmental Sciences
WE Science Citation Index Expanded (SCI-EXPANDED); Social Science Citation Index (SSCI)
SC Environmental Sciences & Ecology
GA 545LY
UT WOS:000273734900003
DA 2026-06-14
ER

PT J
AU Bollen, J
   van der Zwaan, B
   Brink, C
   Eerens, H
AF Bollen, Johannes
   van der Zwaan, Bob
   Brink, Corjan
   Eerens, Hans
TI Local air pollution and global climate change: A combined cost-benefit
   analysis
SO RESOURCE AND ENERGY ECONOMICS
LA English
DT Article
DE Air pollution; Climate change; Damage costs; Cost-benefit analysis
ID ANCILLARY BENEFITS; POLICIES; CANCER
AB This article presents the findings of a combined cost-benefit analysis of local air pollution and global climate change, two subjects that are usually studied separately. Yet these distinct environmental problems are closely related, since they are both driven by the nature of present energy production and consumption patterns. Our study demonstrates the mutual relevance of, and interaction between, policies designed to address these two environmental challenges individually. Given the many dimensions air pollution control and climate change management have in common, it is surprising that they have only little been analyzed in combination so far. We attempt to cover at least part of the existing gap in the literature by assessing how costs and benefits of technologies and strategies that jointly tackle these two environmental problems can best be balanced. By using specific technological options that cut down local air pollution, e.g. related to particulate emissions, one may concurrently reduce CO2 emissions and thus contribute to diminishing global climate change. Inversely, some of the long-term climate change strategies simultaneously improve the quality of air in the short run. We have extended the well-established MERGE model by including emissions of particulate matter, and show that integrated environmental policies generate net global welfare benefits. We also demonstrate that the discounted benefits of local air pollution reduction significantly outweigh those of global climate change mitigation, at least by a factor of 2, but in most cases of our sensitivity analysis much more. Still, we do not argue to only restrict energy policy today to what should be our first priority, local air pollution control, and wait with the reduction of greenhouse gas emissions. Instead, we propose to design policies that simultaneously address these issues, as their combination creates an additional climate change bonus. As such, climate change mitigation proves an ancillary benefit of air pollution reduction, rather than the other way around. (C) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
C1 [Bollen, Johannes; Brink, Corjan; Eerens, Hans] Netherlands Environm Assessment Agcy, PBL, NL-3720 AH Bilthoven, Netherlands.
   [van der Zwaan, Bob] Energy Res Ctr Netherlands, ECN, Policy Studies Dept, NL-1040 AW Amsterdam, Netherlands.
   [van der Zwaan, Bob] Columbia Univ, Lenfest Ctr Sustainable Energy, Earth Inst, New York, NY 10027 USA.
C3 Netherlands National Institute for Public Health & the Environment;
   Columbia University
RP Bollen, J (corresponding author), Netherlands Environm Assessment Agcy, PBL, POB 303, NL-3720 AH Bilthoven, Netherlands.
EM Johannes.Bollen@pbl.nl
RI van der Zwaan, Bob/F-4070-2015
OI van der Zwaan, Bob/0000-0001-5871-7643
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NR 34
TC 139
Z9 164
U1 3
U2 106
PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE BV
PI AMSTERDAM
PA PO BOX 211, 1000 AE AMSTERDAM, NETHERLANDS
SN 0928-7655
EI 1873-0221
J9 RESOUR ENERGY ECON
JI Resour. Energy Econ.
PD AUG
PY 2009
VL 31
IS 3
BP 161
EP 181
DI 10.1016/j.reseneeco.2009.03.001
PG 21
WC Economics; Energy & Fuels; Environmental Sciences; Environmental Studies
WE Social Science Citation Index (SSCI)
SC Business & Economics; Energy & Fuels; Environmental Sciences & Ecology
GA 465YS
UT WOS:000267627400002
OA hybrid
DA 2026-06-14
ER

PT J
AU de Bruin, KC
   Dellink, RB
   Tol, RSJ
AF de Bruin, Kelly C.
   Dellink, Rob B.
   Tol, Richard S. J.
TI AD-DICE: an implementation of adaptation in the DICE model
SO CLIMATIC CHANGE
LA English
DT Article
ID CLIMATE-CHANGE; EXCHANGE-RATES; TRADE
AB Integrated Assessment Models (IAMS) have helped us over the past decade to understand the interactions between the environment and the economy in the context of climate change. Although it has also long been recognized that adaptation is a powerful and necessary tool to combat the adverse effects of climate change, most IAMS have not explicitly included the option of adaptation in combating climate change. This paper adds to the IAM and climate change literature by explicitly including adaptation in an IAM, thereby making the trade-offs between adaptation and mitigation visible. Specifically, a theoretical framework is created and used to implement adaptation as a decision variable into the DICE model. We use our new AD-DICE model to derive the adaptation cost functions implicit in the DICE model. In our set-up, adaptation and mitigation decisions are separable and AD-DICE can mimic DICE when adaptation is optimal. We find that our specification of the adaptation costs is robust with respect to the mitigation policy scenarios and parameter values. Our numerical results show that adaptation is a powerful option to combat climate change, as it reduces most of the potential costs of climate change in earlier periods, while mitigation does so in later periods.
C1 [de Bruin, Kelly C.; Dellink, Rob B.] Wageningen Univ, Environm Econ & Nat Resources Grp, NL-6706 KN Wageningen, Netherlands.
   [Dellink, Rob B.; Tol, Richard S. J.] Vrije Univ Amsterdam, Inst Environm Studies, Amsterdam, Netherlands.
   [Tol, Richard S. J.] Econ & Social Res Inst, Dublin, Ireland.
   [Tol, Richard S. J.] Vrije Univ Amsterdam, Dept Spatial Econ, Amsterdam, Netherlands.
   [Tol, Richard S. J.] Carnegie Mellon Univ, Dept Engn & Publ Policy, Pittsburgh, PA 15213 USA.
C3 Wageningen University & Research; Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam; Economic
   & Social Research Institute (ESRI); Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam;
   Carnegie Mellon University
RP de Bruin, KC (corresponding author), Wageningen Univ, Environm Econ & Nat Resources Grp, Hollandseweg 1, NL-6706 KN Wageningen, Netherlands.
EM kelly.debruin@wur.nl
RI ; Tol, Richard/D-5245-2011
OI Dellink, Rob/0000-0002-9892-2278; Tol, Richard/0000-0002-8012-3988; de
   Bruin, Kelly/0000-0001-6291-6397
CR [Anonymous], ENVIRON PLANN A
   DEBRUIN KC, INTEGRATED IN PRESS
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NR 28
TC 145
Z9 172
U1 3
U2 42
PU SPRINGER
PI DORDRECHT
PA VAN GODEWIJCKSTRAAT 30, 3311 GZ DORDRECHT, NETHERLANDS
SN 0165-0009
J9 CLIMATIC CHANGE
JI Clim. Change
PD JUL
PY 2009
VL 95
IS 1-2
BP 63
EP 81
DI 10.1007/s10584-008-9535-5
PG 19
WC Environmental Sciences; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
WE Science Citation Index Expanded (SCI-EXPANDED); Social Science Citation Index (SSCI)
SC Environmental Sciences & Ecology; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
GA 462OL
UT WOS:000267365400006
OA Green Submitted, hybrid
DA 2026-06-14
ER

PT J
AU McInerney, D
   Keller, K
AF McInerney, David
   Keller, Klaus
TI Economically optimal risk reduction strategies in the face of uncertain
   climate thresholds
SO CLIMATIC CHANGE
LA English
DT Article
ID CONSTRAINED EVOLUTIONARY OPTIMIZATION; THERMOHALINE CIRCULATION; GROWTH;
   SYSTEM; MODEL; CO2
AB Anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions may trigger climate threshold responses, such as a collapse of the North Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (MOC). Climate threshold responses have been interpreted as an example of "dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system" in the sense of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). One UNFCCC objective is to "prevent" such dangerous anthropogenic interference. The current uncertainty about important parameters of the coupled natural - human system implies, however, that this UNFCCC objective can only be achieved in a probabilistic sense. In other words, climate management can only reduce - but not entirely eliminate - the risk of crossing climate thresholds. Here we use an integrated assessment model of climate change to derive economically optimal risk-reduction strategies. We implement a stochastic version of the DICE model and account for uncertainty about four parameters that have been previously identified as dominant drivers of the uncertain system response. The resulting model is, of course, just a crude approximation as it neglects, for example, some structural uncertainty and focuses on a single threshold, out of many potential climate responses. Subject to this caveat, our analysis suggests five main conclusions. First, reducing the numerical artifacts due to sub-sampling the parameter probability density functions to reasonable levels requires sample sizes exceeding 10(3). Conclusions of previous studies that are based on much smaller sample sizes may hence need to be revisited. Second, following a business-as-usual (BAU) scenario results in odds for an MOC collapse in the next 150 years exceeding 1 in 3 in this model. Third, an economically "optimal" strategy (that maximizes the expected utility of the decision-maker) reduces carbon dioxide(CO2) emissions by approximately 25% at the end of this century, compared with BAU emissions. Perhaps surprisingly, this strategy leaves the odds of an MOC collapse virtually unchanged compared to a BAU strategy. Fourth, reducing the odds for an MOC collapse to 1 in 10 would require an almost complete decarbonization of the economy within a few decades. Finally, further risk reductions (e.g., to 1 in 100) are possible in the framework of the simple model, but would require faster and more expensive reductions in CO2 emissions.
C1 [McInerney, David; Keller, Klaus] Penn State Univ, Dept Geosci, University Pk, PA 16802 USA.
C3 Pennsylvania Commonwealth System of Higher Education (PCSHE);
   Pennsylvania State University; Pennsylvania State University -
   University Park
RP McInerney, D (corresponding author), Penn State Univ, Dept Geosci, University Pk, PA 16802 USA.
EM dmcinern@geosc.psu.edu
RI McInerney, David/I-4896-2015; /A-6742-2013
OI McInerney, David/0000-0003-4876-8281; Keller, Klaus/0000-0002-5451-8687;
   
FU National Science Foundation (SES) [0345925]; Direct For Social, Behav &
   Economic Scie; Divn Of Social and Economic Sciences [0345925] Funding
   Source: National Science Foundation
FX We thank Brian Tuttle, Alex Robinson and Robert Lempert (as well as the
   anonymous reviewers) for helpful inputs. Thomas Runarsson provided the
   source code for the SRES algorithms. Support from the National Science
   Foundation (SES # 0345925) is gratefully acknowledged. Any opinions,
   findings and conclusions or recommendations expressed in this material
   are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of the
   funding entity.
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NR 31
TC 37
Z9 43
U1 1
U2 17
PU SPRINGER
PI DORDRECHT
PA VAN GODEWIJCKSTRAAT 30, 3311 GZ DORDRECHT, NETHERLANDS
SN 0165-0009
EI 1573-1480
J9 CLIMATIC CHANGE
JI Clim. Change
PD NOV
PY 2008
VL 91
IS 1-2
BP 29
EP 41
DI 10.1007/s10584-006-9137-z
PG 13
WC Environmental Sciences; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
WE Science Citation Index Expanded (SCI-EXPANDED); Social Science Citation Index (SSCI)
SC Environmental Sciences & Ecology; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
GA 364YF
UT WOS:000260371000004
DA 2026-06-14
ER

PT J
AU Bahn, O
   Haurie, A
   Malhamé, R
AF Bahn, O.
   Haurie, A.
   Malhame, R.
TI A stochastic control model for optimal timing of climate policies
SO AUTOMATICA
LA English
DT Article
DE stochastic control; piecewise deterministic Markov process; climate
   policies; environmental hedging strategies
ID SYSTEMS
AB A stochastic control model is proposed as a paradigm for the design of optimal timing of greenhouse gas (GHG) emission abatement. The resolution of uncertainty concerning climate sensitivity and the technological breakthrough providing access to a carbon-free production economy are modeled as controlled stochastic jump processes. The optimal policy is characterized using the dynamic programming solution to a piecewise deterministic optimal control problem. A numerical illustration is developed with a set of parameters calibrated on recently proposed models for integrated assessment of climate policies. The results are interpreted and the insights they provide on the timing issue of climate policy are discussed. (c) 2008 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
C1 [Bahn, O.] HEC Montreal, GERAD, Montreal, PQ, Canada.
   [Bahn, O.] HEC Montreal, MQG, Montreal, PQ, Canada.
   [Haurie, A.] GERAD, Geneva, Switzerland.
   [Haurie, A.] ORDECSYS, Geneva, Switzerland.
   [Malhame, R.] Ecole Polytech, Montreal, PQ H3C 3A7, Canada.
   [Haurie, A.] Univ Geneva, Dept Mangement Sci HEC, CH-1211 Geneva 4, Switzerland.
C3 Universite de Montreal; HEC Montreal; Universite de Montreal; HEC
   Montreal; Universite de Montreal; Polytechnique Montreal; University of
   Geneva
RP Bahn, O (corresponding author), HEC Montreal 3000, Dept Management Sci Chemin Cote St Catherine Mont, Montreal, PQ H3T 2A7, Canada.
EM olivier.bahn@hec.ca
RI Bahn, Olivier/R-2609-2019
OI Malhamé, Roland/0000-0002-2809-0891
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NR 35
TC 38
Z9 41
U1 1
U2 13
PU PERGAMON-ELSEVIER SCIENCE LTD
PI OXFORD
PA THE BOULEVARD, LANGFORD LANE, KIDLINGTON, OXFORD OX5 1GB, ENGLAND
SN 0005-1098
EI 1873-2836
J9 AUTOMATICA
JI Automatica
PD JUN
PY 2008
VL 44
IS 6
BP 1545
EP 1558
DI 10.1016/j.automatica.2008.03.004
PG 14
WC Automation & Control Systems; Engineering, Electrical & Electronic
WE Science Citation Index Expanded (SCI-EXPANDED); Social Science Citation Index (SSCI)
SC Automation & Control Systems; Engineering
GA 317EX
UT WOS:000257003700010
DA 2026-06-14
ER

PT J
AU Keller, K
   McInerney, D
   Bradford, DF
AF Keller, Klaus
   McInerney, David
   Bradford, David F.
TI Carbon dioxide sequestration: how much and when?
SO CLIMATIC CHANGE
LA English
DT Article
ID TECHNOLOGICAL-CHANGE; ATMOSPHERIC CO2; CLIMATE; REDUCTION; IMPACTS;
   CAPTURE; HISTORY; MODEL
AB Carbon dioxide (CO2) sequestration has been proposed as a key component in technological portfolios for managing anthropogenic climate change, since it may provide a faster and cheaper route to significant reductions in atmospheric CO2 concentrations than abating CO2 production. However, CO2 sequestration is not a perfect substitute for CO2 abatement because CO2 may leak back into the atmosphere (thus imposing future climate change impacts) and because CO2 sequestration requires energy (thus producing more CO2 and depleting fossil fuel resources earlier). Here we use analytical and numerical models to assess the economic efficiency of CO2 sequestration and analyze the optimal timing and extent of CO2 sequestration. The economic efficiency factor of CO2 sequestration can be expressed as the ratio of the marginal net benefits of sequestering CO2 and avoiding CO2 emissions. We derive an analytical solution for this efficiency factor for a simplified case in which we account for CO2 leakage, discounting, the additional fossil fuel requirement of CO2 sequestration, and the growth rate of carbon taxes. In this analytical model, the economic efficiency of CO2 sequestration decreases as the CO2 tax growth rate, leakage rates and energy requirements for CO2 sequestration increase. Increasing discount rates increases the economic efficiency factor. In this simple model, short-term sequestration methods, such as afforestation, can even have negative economic efficiencies. We use a more realistic integrated-assessment model to additionally account for potentially important effects such as learning-by-doing and socio-economic inertia on optimal strategies. We measure the economic efficiency of CO2 sequestration by the ratio of the marginal costs of CO2 sequestration and CO2 abatement along optimal trajectories. We show that the positive impacts of investments in CO2 sequestration through the reduction of future marginal CO2 sequestration costs and the alleviation of future inertia constraints can initially exceed the marginal sequestration costs. As a result, the economic efficiencies of CO2 sequestration can exceed 100% and an optimal strategy will subsidize CO2 sequestration that is initially more expensive than CO2 abatement. The potential economic value of a feasible and acceptable CO2 sequestration technology is equivalent - in the adopted utilitarian model - to a one-time investment of several percent of present gross world product. It is optimal in the chosen economic framework to sequester substantial CO2 quantities into reservoirs with small or zero leakage, given published estimates of marginal costs and climate change impacts. The optimal CO2 trajectories in the case of sequestration from air can approach the pre-industrial level, constituting geoengineering. Our analysis is silent on important questions (e.g., the effects of model and parametric uncertainty, the potential learning about these uncertainties, or ethical dimension of such geoengineering strategies), which need to be addressed before our findings can be translated into policy-relevant recommendations.
C1 [Keller, Klaus] Penn State Univ, Dept Geosci, University Pk, PA 16802 USA.
   [McInerney, David] Univ Chicago, Dept Geophys Sci, Chicago, IL 60637 USA.
   [Bradford, David F.] Princeton Univ, Woodrow Wilson Sch Publ & Int Affairs, Princeton, NJ 08544 USA.
   [Bradford, David F.] Princeton Univ, Dept Econ, Princeton, NJ 08544 USA.
   [Bradford, David F.] NYU, Sch Law, New York, NY 10003 USA.
C3 Pennsylvania Commonwealth System of Higher Education (PCSHE);
   Pennsylvania State University; Pennsylvania State University -
   University Park; University of Chicago; Princeton University; Princeton
   University; New York University
RP Keller, K (corresponding author), Penn State Univ, Dept Geosci, University Pk, PA 16802 USA.
EM kkeller@geosc.psu.edu
RI /A-6742-2013; McInerney, David/I-4896-2015
OI Keller, Klaus/0000-0002-5451-8687; McInerney, David/0000-0003-4876-8281
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NR 53
TC 35
Z9 43
U1 0
U2 94
PU SPRINGER
PI DORDRECHT
PA VAN GODEWIJCKSTRAAT 30, 3311 GZ DORDRECHT, NETHERLANDS
SN 0165-0009
EI 1573-1480
J9 CLIMATIC CHANGE
JI Clim. Change
PD JUN
PY 2008
VL 88
IS 3-4
BP 267
EP 291
DI 10.1007/s10584-008-9417-x
PG 25
WC Environmental Sciences; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
WE Science Citation Index Expanded (SCI-EXPANDED)
SC Environmental Sciences & Ecology; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
GA 309QU
UT WOS:000256476100003
DA 2026-06-14
ER

PT J
AU Ranjan, R
AF Ranjan, Ram
TI The future of global warming: will it be emissions control or
   environmental damages?
SO MITIGATION AND ADAPTATION STRATEGIES FOR GLOBAL CHANGE
LA English
DT Article
DE Global warming; Technological change; Risk perception; Probability
   weighting
AB This paper explores the role of risk perceptions in influencing public policy related to global warming. It solves for the optimal paths for emissions, abatement and investment in pollution-eliminating research by incorporating perceived risks into public decision making. It also compares the impact of differential risk perceptions on international collaboration on carbon abatement. Key findings are that the perception of risks related to environmental damages and technological breakthroughs plays an important role in determining the level of mitigation efforts. A high level of perceived risk of environmental damages discourages investment in pollution-eliminating research as there are few benefits from eliminating pollution after damages are realized. Other options that allow for sequestering carbon from the atmosphere may still remain viable. Another key finding is that when it comes to effort sharing between nations, differential mitigation efforts are primarily caused due to the differences in abatement technology, benefits from emissions and research capabilities. However, such differences could be accentuated or mitigated depending upon the differences in risk perception of developed and developing countries.
C1 CSIRO, Wembley, WA 6913, Australia.
C3 Commonwealth Scientific & Industrial Research Organisation (CSIRO)
RP Ranjan, R (corresponding author), CSIRO, Private Bag 5, Wembley, WA 6913, Australia.
EM ram.ranjan@csiro.au
OI ranjan, ram/0000-0002-8756-9392
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NR 29
TC 0
Z9 0
U1 1
U2 6
PU SPRINGER
PI DORDRECHT
PA VAN GODEWIJCKSTRAAT 30, 3311 GZ DORDRECHT, NETHERLANDS
SN 1381-2386
J9 MITIG ADAPT STRAT GL
JI Mitig. Adapt. Strateg. Glob. Chang.
PD MAY
PY 2008
VL 13
IS 4
BP 401
EP 418
DI 10.1007/s11027-007-9119-0
PG 18
WC Environmental Sciences
WE Science Citation Index Expanded (SCI-EXPANDED)
SC Environmental Sciences & Ecology
GA V13JM
UT WOS:000207663100005
DA 2026-06-14
ER

PT J
AU Keller, K
   Hall, M
   Kim, SR
   Bradford, DF
   Oppenheimer, M
AF Keller, K
   Hall, M
   Kim, SR
   Bradford, DF
   Oppenheimer, M
TI Avoiding dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system
SO CLIMATIC CHANGE
LA English
DT Article
ID ANTARCTIC ICE-SHEET; ECONOMICS; FUTURE; MODEL; UNCERTAINTY; COLLAPSE;
   IMPACTS; INERTIA
AB The UN Framework Convention on Climate Change calls for the avoidance of "dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system". Among the many plausible choices, dangerous interference with the climate system may be interpreted as anthropogenic radiative forcing causing distinct and widespread climate change impacts such as a widespread demise of coral reefs or a disintegration of the West Antarctic ice sheet. The geological record and numerical models suggest that limiting global warming below critical temperature thresholds significantly reduces the likelihood of these eventualities. Here we analyze economically optimal policies that may ensure this risk-reduction. Reducing the risk of a widespread coral reef demise implies drastic reductions in greenhouse gas emissions within decades. Virtually unchecked greenhouse gas emissions to date (combined with the inertia of the coupled natural and human systems) may have already committed future societies to a widespread demise of coral reefs. Policies to reduce the risk of a West Antarctic ice sheet disintegration allow for a smoother decarbonization of the economy within a century and may well increase consumption in the long run.
C1 Penn State Univ, Dept Geosci, University Pk, PA 16802 USA.
   Brookings Inst, Washington, DC 20036 USA.
   Princeton Univ, Woodrow Wilson Sch Publ & Int Affairs, Princeton, NJ 08544 USA.
   Princeton Univ, Dept Econ, Princeton, NJ 08544 USA.
   NYU, Sch Law, New York, NY 10003 USA.
   Natl Bur Econ Res, Cambridge, MA 02138 USA.
   CESifo, Munich, Germany.
   Princeton Univ, Dept Geosci, Princeton, NJ 08544 USA.
C3 Pennsylvania Commonwealth System of Higher Education (PCSHE);
   Pennsylvania State University; Pennsylvania State University -
   University Park; Brookings Institution; Princeton University; Princeton
   University; New York University; National Bureau of Economic Research;
   Leibniz Association; Ifo Institut; Princeton University
RP Keller, K (corresponding author), Penn State Univ, Dept Geosci, University Pk, PA 16802 USA.
EM kkeller@geosc.psu.edu
RI ; Oppenheimer, Michael/ACV-2153-2022; /A-6742-2013
OI Keller, Klaus/0000-0002-5451-8687; Oppenheimer,
   Michael/0000-0002-9708-5914; 
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NR 48
TC 38
Z9 46
U1 0
U2 14
PU SPRINGER
PI DORDRECHT
PA VAN GODEWIJCKSTRAAT 30, 3311 GZ DORDRECHT, NETHERLANDS
SN 0165-0009
EI 1573-1480
J9 CLIMATIC CHANGE
JI Clim. Change
PD DEC
PY 2005
VL 73
IS 3
BP 227
EP 238
DI 10.1007/s10584-005-0426-8
PG 12
WC Environmental Sciences; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
WE Science Citation Index Expanded (SCI-EXPANDED); Social Science Citation Index (SSCI)
SC Environmental Sciences & Ecology; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
GA 000SF
UT WOS:000234482000002
DA 2026-06-14
ER

PT J
AU Greiner, A
   Semmler, W
AF Greiner, A
   Semmler, W
TI Economic growth and global warming: A model of multiple equilibria and
   thresholds
SO JOURNAL OF ECONOMIC BEHAVIOR & ORGANIZATION
LA English
DT Article
DE thresholds; multiple equilibria; global warming; endogenous growth
ID CLIMATE POLICY; CIRCULATION
AB We presume a simple endogenous growth model where global warming affects economic growth and analyze the dynamics of the competitive economy and of the social optimum. Our regulatory instrument is an emission tax rate. We demonstrate that for certain values of the emission tax ratio the competitive economy exhibits multiple equilibria and a threshold may exist that separates the domains of attraction for the growth paths. There exist paths to high growth rates and low temperature and low growth rates and high temperature. For the planner's problem the long-run equilibrium is unique unless the damage of global warming is very small. (c) 2005 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
C1 Univ Bielefeld, Dept Econ, D-33501 Bielefeld, Germany.
   New Sch Univ, Grad Fac, Dept Econ, New York, NY 10003 USA.
C3 University of Bielefeld; The New School
RP Greiner, A (corresponding author), Univ Bielefeld, Dept Econ, POB 100131, D-33501 Bielefeld, Germany.
EM agreiner@wiwi.uni-bielefeld.de
OI Semmler, Willi/0000-0002-8384-8159
CR [Anonymous], 2001, 1065 KIEL I WORLD EC
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NR 25
TC 15
Z9 16
U1 0
U2 14
PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE BV
PI AMSTERDAM
PA PO BOX 211, 1000 AE AMSTERDAM, NETHERLANDS
SN 0167-2681
J9 J ECON BEHAV ORGAN
JI J. Econ. Behav. Organ.
PD AUG
PY 2005
VL 57
IS 4
BP 430
EP 447
DI 10.1016/j.jebo.2005.04.007
PG 18
WC Economics
WE Social Science Citation Index (SSCI)
SC Business & Economics
GA 970OL
UT WOS:000232319400005
DA 2026-06-14
ER

PT J
AU Weber, M
   Barth, V
   Hasselmann, K
AF Weber, M
   Barth, V
   Hasselmann, K
TI A multi-actor dynamic integrated assessment model (MADIAM) of induced
   technological change and sustainable economic growth
SO ECOLOGICAL ECONOMICS
LA English
DT Article
DE dynamic integrated assessment; induced technological change;
   socioeconomic modelling; climate change; multi-actor scenarios
ID CLIMATE-CHANGE; OCEAN-CIRCULATION; CO2 ABATEMENT; SENSITIVITY; SYSTEM;
   COSTS
AB Interactions between climate and the socioeconomic system are investigated with a Multi-Actor Dynamic Integrated Assessment Model (MADIAM) obtained by coupling a nonlinear impulse response model of the climate sub-system (NICCS) to a multi-actor dynamic economic model (MADEM). The core of MADEM describes an economy driven by the opposing forces of business, striving to increase profits by investments in human and physical capital, and the erosion of profits through business competition, enhanced by labour wage pressure. The principal driver of economic growth is the increase in labour productivity (or human capital) generated by endogeneous technological change. In the presence of climate change, these basic interactions are modified by government taxes on CO2 emissions, which are recycled into the economy as various subsidies, by climate-related changes in consumer preferences, and by modified business investment decisions in response to these actions. The combined effect of the climate-response strategies of the different actors determines the form of the induced technological change that ultimately governs the evolution of the coupled climate-socioeconomic system. To clarify the individual roles of the actors, the model is set up in a systems-analytical way, with prescribed control algorithms for the different actors, rather than in the traditional single-actor cost/benefit optimization mode.
   In the reference 'moderate mitigation' scenario, business investments in energy and carbon efficiency, induced by government CO2 taxes, yield the largest contribution to emissions reduction. Direct government mitigation actions through carbon taxes are more effective with regard to both emission reductions and economic growth if a significant fraction of carbon taxes are recycled into investments in energy and carbon efficiency, i.e. into induced technological change. The influence of consumer preferences, often neglected in integrated assessment analyses, can also be effective in guiding business investments. The chosen examples are intended as illustrations rather than to provide quantitative predictions. (c) 2005 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
C1 Max Planck Inst Meteorol, D-20146 Hamburg, Germany.
   Carl von Ossietzky Univ Oldenburg, GELENA Res Grp, D-26111 Oldenburg, Germany.
C3 Max Planck Society; Carl von Ossietzky Universitat Oldenburg
RP Weber, M (corresponding author), Max Planck Inst Meteorol, Bundesstr 53, D-20146 Hamburg, Germany.
EM michael.weber@dkrz.de
RI Barth, Volker/LVA-0889-2024
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NR 49
TC 34
Z9 38
U1 1
U2 32
PU ELSEVIER
PI AMSTERDAM
PA RADARWEG 29, 1043 NX AMSTERDAM, NETHERLANDS
SN 0921-8009
EI 1873-6106
J9 ECOL ECON
JI Ecol. Econ.
PD AUG 1
PY 2005
VL 54
IS 2-3
BP 306
EP 327
DI 10.1016/j.ecolecon.2004.12.035
PG 22
WC Ecology; Economics; Environmental Sciences; Environmental Studies
WE Science Citation Index Expanded (SCI-EXPANDED); Social Science Citation Index (SSCI)
SC Environmental Sciences & Ecology; Business & Economics
GA 956ZW
UT WOS:000231339900012
DA 2026-06-14
ER

PT J
AU Keller, K
   Bolker, BM
   Bradford, DF
AF Keller, K
   Bolker, BM
   Bradford, DF
TI Uncertain climate thresholds and optimal economic growth
SO JOURNAL OF ENVIRONMENTAL ECONOMICS AND MANAGEMENT
LA English
DT Article
DE climate policy; climate thresholds; abrupt climate change; North
   Atlantic thermohaline circulation; optimal growth model; learning;
   uncertainty
ID OCEAN-ATMOSPHERE MODEL; QUASI-OPTION VALUE; THERMOHALINE CIRCULATION;
   GLOBAL OPTIMIZATION; POLICY; STABILITY; SYSTEM; CO2; EMISSION; RATES
AB We explore the combined effects of a climate threshold (a potential ocean thermohaline circulation collapse), parameter uncertainty, and learning in an optimal economic growth model. Our analysis shows that significand), reducing carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions may be Justified to avoid or delay even small (and arguably realistic) damages from an uncertain and irreversible climate change-even when future learning about the system is considered. Parameter uncertainty about the threshold specific damages and the CO2 level triggering a threshold can act to decrease near-term CO2 abatements that maximize expected utility. (C) 2003 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
C1 Penn State Univ, Dept Geosci, University Pk, PA 16802 USA.
   Univ Florida, Dept Zool, Gainesville, FL 32611 USA.
   Princeton Univ, Woodrow Wilson Sch Publ & Int Affairs, Princeton, NJ 08544 USA.
   NYU, Sch Law, New York, NY 10012 USA.
   Princeton Univ, Dept Econ, Princeton, NJ 08544 USA.
   Natl Bur Econ Res, Cambridge, MA 02138 USA.
C3 Pennsylvania Commonwealth System of Higher Education (PCSHE);
   Pennsylvania State University; Pennsylvania State University -
   University Park; State University System of Florida; University of
   Florida; Princeton University; New York University; Princeton
   University; National Bureau of Economic Research
RP Keller, K (corresponding author), Penn State Univ, Dept Geosci, University Pk, PA 16802 USA.
EM kkeller@geosc.psu.edu
RI /A-6742-2013
OI Keller, Klaus/0000-0002-5451-8687; Bolker, Benjamin/0000-0002-2127-0443
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NR 62
TC 177
Z9 213
U1 1
U2 34
PU ACADEMIC PRESS INC ELSEVIER SCIENCE
PI SAN DIEGO
PA 525 B ST, STE 1900, SAN DIEGO, CA 92101-4495 USA
SN 0095-0696
EI 1096-0449
J9 J ENVIRON ECON MANAG
JI J.Environ.Econ.Manage.
PD JUL
PY 2004
VL 48
IS 1
BP 723
EP 741
DI 10.1016/j.jeem.2003.10.003
PG 19
WC Business; Economics; Environmental Studies
WE Social Science Citation Index (SSCI)
SC Business & Economics; Environmental Sciences & Ecology
GA 833UO
UT WOS:000222365700006
DA 2026-06-14
ER

PT J
AU Popp, D
AF Popp, D
TI ENTICE: endogenous technological change in the DICE model of global
   warming
SO JOURNAL OF ENVIRONMENTAL ECONOMICS AND MANAGEMENT
LA English
DT Article
DE climate change; endogenous technological change; induced innovation; R&D
ID INDUCED INNOVATION; CO2 ABATEMENT; PATENTS
AB Despite growing empirical evidence of the link between environmental policy and innovation, most economic models of environmental policy treat technology as exogenous. For long-term problems such as climate change, this omission may be significant. In this paper, I modify the DICE model of climate change (Managing the Global Commons: the Economics of the Greenhouse Effect, MIT press, Cambridge, MA, 1994; Warming the World: Economic Models of Global Warming., MIT press, Cambridge, MA, 2000) to allow for induced innovation in the energy sector. Ignoring induced technological change overstates the welfare costs of an optimal carbon tax policy by 9.4%. However, cost savings, rather than increased environmental benefits, appear to drive the welfare gains, as the effect of induced innovation on emissions and mean global temperature is small. Sensitivity analysis shows that potential crowding out of other R&D and market failures in the R&D sector are the most important limiting factors to the potential of induced innovation. Differences in these key assumptions explain much of the variation in the findings of other similar models. (C) 2003 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
C1 Syracuse Univ, Dept Publ Adm, Ctr Environm Policy Adm, Maxwell Sch, Syracuse, NY 13244 USA.
   Natl Bur Econ Res, Cambridge, MA 02138 USA.
C3 Syracuse University; National Bureau of Economic Research
RP Popp, D (corresponding author), Syracuse Univ, Dept Publ Adm, Ctr Environm Policy Adm, Maxwell Sch, 400 Eggers Hall, Syracuse, NY 13244 USA.
EM dcpopp@maxwell.syr.edu
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NR 37
TC 311
Z9 377
U1 3
U2 100
PU ACADEMIC PRESS INC ELSEVIER SCIENCE
PI SAN DIEGO
PA 525 B ST, STE 1900, SAN DIEGO, CA 92101-4495 USA
SN 0095-0696
EI 1096-0449
J9 J ENVIRON ECON MANAG
JI J.Environ.Econ.Manage.
PD JUL
PY 2004
VL 48
IS 1
BP 742
EP 768
DI 10.1016/j.jeem.2003.09.002
PG 27
WC Business; Economics; Environmental Studies
WE Social Science Citation Index (SSCI)
SC Business & Economics; Environmental Sciences & Ecology
GA 833UO
UT WOS:000222365700007
DA 2026-06-14
ER

PT J
AU Fiddaman, TS
AF Fiddaman, TS
TI Exploring policy options with a behavioral climate-economy model
SO SYSTEM DYNAMICS REVIEW
LA English
DT Article
AB Many integrated energy-economy-climate models have been developed to address climate change policy. While these models are quite varied in scope, most share a common core of economic optimization and equilibrium assumptions. By contrast, system dynamics models of energv-economy interactions focus on disequilibrium dynamics, with behavioral decision rules and explicit stocks and flows of capital, labor, resources and money. This article tests climate policies using a system dynamics model that includes many features missing from economic models. Among these are endogenous technological change and boundedly rational decision making, Energy requirements are embodied in capital, and energy production capacity depends on explicit capital stocks. The search for optimal policies is decoupled from other decisions, and uses criteria that are fair across generations. Earlier experiments with the model, briefly reported here, indicate that these features greatly alter policy outcomes. The model is used to test a family of emissions permit and tax policies like the Kyoto Protocol under a range of assumptions. Uncertainty is included in the analysis through Monte Carlo simulation. Results suggest that nearly all police options are a net benefit, and that the landscape for policy choice is more forgiving than generally supposed. However, implementation remains a critical issue, and the viability of tradeable permits is questionable. Carbon tax policies are found to outperform fixed emissions permits in nearly all circumstances. The model used in this article is available at http://www.sd3.info. Copyright (C) 2002 John Wiley Sons. Ltd.
C1 Ventana Syst Inc, Olalla, WA 98539 USA.
C3 Roche Holding; Ventana Medical Systems, Inc.
RP Fiddaman, TS (corresponding author), Ventana Syst Inc, 8105 SE Nelson Rd, Olalla, WA 98539 USA.
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NR 32
TC 108
Z9 124
U1 1
U2 35
PU JOHN WILEY & SONS LTD
PI W SUSSEX
PA BAFFINS LANE CHICHESTER, W SUSSEX PO19 1UD, ENGLAND
SN 0883-7066
J9 SYST DYNAM REV
JI Syst. Dyn. Rev.
PD SUM
PY 2002
VL 18
IS 2
BP 243
EP 267
DI 10.1002/sdr.241
PG 25
WC Management; Social Sciences, Mathematical Methods
WE Social Science Citation Index (SSCI)
SC Business & Economics; Mathematical Methods In Social Sciences
GA 578XU
UT WOS:000177147000013
OA Bronze
DA 2026-06-14
ER

PT J
AU Dowlatabadi, H
AF Dowlatabadi, H
TI Bumping against a gas ceiling
SO CLIMATIC CHANGE
LA English
DT Article
ID CLIMATE-CHANGE; OSCILLATIONS; MODEL
AB The adoption of physical thresholds as a ceiling for permitted climate change sidesteps contentious issues such as: policy cost, impact valuation, discounting and equity. In this paper I offer some reflections on the concept of tolerable climate change. I also use an integrated climate assessment model (ICAM-3) to demonstrate how uncertainties in our understanding of socioeconomic and earth systems reduce the probability of success in keeping climate change within a pre-defined tolerable range. Finally, I explore the implications of socioeconomic thresholds for welfare loss in pursuit of a climate policy (e.g., tax rebellions). Crossing such regional socioeconomic thresholds will lead to local failures to pursue climate change mitigation policies - increasing the probability of straying beyond the tolerable window of global climate change. Given various uncertainties and the dynamics of the socioeconomic and the earth systems, the odds of success in staying within a climate change window of Delta T less than or equal to 2 degrees C, and Delta T/yr less than or equal to 0.015 degrees C are estimated to be no higher than 25% over the next century. A risk-risk tradeoff approach appears to hold promise, but while adoption of a larger window of tolerance increases the probability of success, it also opens the window specification criteria to contention.
C1 Carnegie Mellon Univ, Dept Engn & Publ Policy, Ctr Integrated Study Human Dimens Global Change, Pittsburgh, PA 15213 USA.
C3 Carnegie Mellon University
RP Dowlatabadi, H (corresponding author), Carnegie Mellon Univ, Dept Engn & Publ Policy, Ctr Integrated Study Human Dimens Global Change, 5000 Forbes Ave,Schenley Pk, Pittsburgh, PA 15213 USA.
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NR 27
TC 12
Z9 14
U1 0
U2 5
PU KLUWER ACADEMIC PUBL
PI DORDRECHT
PA SPUIBOULEVARD 50, PO BOX 17, 3300 AA DORDRECHT, NETHERLANDS
SN 0165-0009
J9 CLIMATIC CHANGE
JI Clim. Change
PD AUG
PY 2000
VL 46
IS 3
BP 391
EP 407
DI 10.1023/A:1005611713386
PG 17
WC Environmental Sciences; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
WE Science Citation Index Expanded (SCI-EXPANDED)
SC Environmental Sciences & Ecology; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
GA 352XG
UT WOS:000089244200011
DA 2026-06-14
ER

PT J
AU Roughgarden, T
   Schneider, SH
AF Roughgarden, T
   Schneider, SH
TI Climate change policy: quantifying uncertainties for damages and optimal
   carbon taxes
SO ENERGY POLICY
LA English
DT Article
DE optimal carbon tax; climate policy; greenhouse gas abatement; integrated
   assessment of climate change
ID INTEGRATED ASSESSMENT; GREENHOUSE GASES; EXPERT JUDGMENTS; ATMOSPHERIC
   CO2; EDITORIAL ESSAY; EMISSIONS; ECONOMICS; MODEL; DICE; TARGETS
AB Controversy surrounds climate change policy analyses because of uncertainties in climatic effects, impacts, mitigation costs and their distributions. Here we address uncertainties in impacts, and provide a method for quantitative estimation of the policy implications of such uncertainties. To calculate an "optimal" control rate or carbon tax a climate-economy model can be used on estimates of climate damages resulting from warming scenarios and several other key assumptions. The dynamic integrated climate-economy (DICE) model, in its original specification? suggested that an efficient policy for slowing global warming would incorporate only a relatively modest amount of abatement of greenhouse gas emissions, via the mechanism of a small (about $5 per ton initially) carbon tax. Here, the DICE model is reformulated to reflect several alternate published estimates and opinions of the possible damages from climatic change. Our analyses show that incorporating most of these alternate damage estimates into DICE results in a significantly more aggressive optimal policy than that suggested by the original model using a single damage function. In addition, statistical distributions of these damage estimates are constructed and used in a probabilistic analysis of optimal carbon tax rates, resulting in mostly much larger (but occasionally smaller) carbon taxes than those of DICE using point values of damage estimates. In view of the large uncertainties in estimates of climate damages, a probabilistic formulation that links many of the structural and data uncertainties and thus acknowledges the wide range of "optimal" policies is essential to policy analysis, since point values or "best guesses" deny policy makers the opportunity to consider low probability, but policy-relevant, outliers. Our presentation is offered as a prototypical example of a method to represent such uncertainties explicitly in an integrated assessment. (C) 1999 Published by Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.
C1 Stanford Univ, Dept Biol Sci, Inst Int Studies, Stanford, CA 94305 USA.
   Cornell Univ, Dept Comp Sci, Ithaca, NY 14853 USA.
C3 Stanford University; Cornell University
RP Schneider, SH (corresponding author), Stanford Univ, Dept Biol Sci, Inst Int Studies, Stanford, CA 94305 USA.
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NR 47
TC 122
Z9 137
U1 0
U2 62
PU ELSEVIER SCI LTD
PI OXFORD
PA THE BOULEVARD, LANGFORD LANE, KIDLINGTON, OXFORD OX5 1GB, OXON, ENGLAND
SN 0301-4215
J9 ENERG POLICY
JI Energy Policy
PD JUL
PY 1999
VL 27
IS 7
BP 415
EP 429
DI 10.1016/S0301-4215(99)00030-0
PG 15
WC Economics; Energy & Fuels; Environmental Sciences; Environmental Studies
WE Science Citation Index Expanded (SCI-EXPANDED); Social Science Citation Index (SSCI)
SC Business & Economics; Energy & Fuels; Environmental Sciences & Ecology
GA 253QB
UT WOS:000083566300004
DA 2026-06-14
ER

PT J
AU Hasselmann, K
   Hasselmann, S
   Giering, R
   Ocana, V
   VonStorch, H
AF Hasselmann, K
   Hasselmann, S
   Giering, R
   Ocana, V
   VonStorch, H
TI Sensitivity study of optimal CO2 emission paths using a simplified
   structural integrated assessment model (SIAM)
SO CLIMATIC CHANGE
LA English
DT Article
ID CLIMATE RESPONSE; GREENHOUSE GASES
AB A structurally highly simplified globally integrated coupled climate-economic costs model SIAM (Structural Integrated Assessment Model) is used to compute optimal paths of global CO2 emissions that minimize the net sum of climate damage and mitigation costs. The model is used to study the sensitivity of the computed optimal emission paths with respect to various critical input assumptions. The climate module is represented by a linearized impulse-response model calibrated against a coupled ocean-atmosphere general circulation climate model and a three-dimensional global carbon-cycle model. The cost terms are represented by strongly simplified expressions designed for maximal transparency with respect to sensitive input assumptions. These include the discount rates for mitigation and damage costs, the inertia of the socio-economic system, and the dependence of climate damages on the change in temperature and the rate of change of temperature. Different assumptions regarding these parameters are believed to be the cause of the marked divergences of existing cost-benefit analyses based on more sophisticated economic models.
   The long memory of the climate system implies that very long time horizons of several hundred years need to be considered to optimize CO2 emissions on time scales relevant for a policy of sustainable development. Cost-benefit analyses over shorter time scales of a century or two can lead to dangerous underestimates of the long term climatic impact of increasing greenhouse-gas emissions. To avert a major long term global warming, CO2 emissions need to be reduced ultimately to very low levels. However, the draw-down can be realized as a gradual transition process over many decades and even centuries. This should nevertheless not be interpreted as providing a time cushion for inaction: the transition becomes more costly the longer the necessary mitigation policies are delayed. However, the long time horizon provides adequate flexibility for later adjustments. Short term energy conservation alone is insufficient and can be viewed only as a useful measure in support of the necessary long term transition to carbon-free energy technologies. For standard climate damage cost expressions, optimal emission paths limiting long term global warming to acceptable sustainable development levels are recovered only if climate damage costs are not significantly discounted. Discounting of climate damages at normal economic rates yields emission paths that are only weakly reduced relative to business as usual scenarios, resulting in high global warming levels that are incompatible with the generally accepted requirements of sustainable development. The solutions are nevertheless logically consistent with the underlying discounting assumption, namely that the occurrence of global warming damages in the distant future as a result of present human activities is of negligible concern today. It follows that a commitment to long term sustainable development, if it in fact exists, should be expressed by an intertemporal relation for the value of the earth's future climate which does not degrade significantly over the time horizon relevant for climate change. Since the future climate is a common assett whose value cannot be determined on the market, the appropriate discount rate for future climate damages should be determined by an assessment of the public willingness to pay today for the mitigation of future climate change.
   To translate our general conclusions into quantitative cost estimates required by decision makers, the present exploratory study needs to be extended using more detailed disaggregated climate damage and mitigation cast estimates and more realistic socioeconomic models, including multi-actor interactions, inherent variability, the role of uncertainty and adaptive control strategies.
RP Hasselmann, K (corresponding author), MAX PLANCK INST METEOROL, BUNDESSTR 55, D-20146 HAMBURG, GERMANY.
RI von Storch, Hans/J-4165-2012
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NR 46
TC 109
Z9 119
U1 0
U2 37
PU SPRINGER
PI DORDRECHT
PA VAN GODEWIJCKSTRAAT 30, 3311 GZ DORDRECHT, NETHERLANDS
SN 0165-0009
EI 1573-1480
J9 CLIMATIC CHANGE
JI Clim. Change
PD OCT
PY 1997
VL 37
IS 2
BP 345
EP 386
DI 10.1023/A:1005339625015
PG 42
WC Environmental Sciences; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
WE Science Citation Index Expanded (SCI-EXPANDED)
SC Environmental Sciences & Ecology; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
GA XZ628
UT WOS:A1997XZ62800004
OA Green Submitted
DA 2026-06-14
ER

PT J
AU Schultz, PA
   Kasting, JF
AF Schultz, PA
   Kasting, JF
TI Optimal reductions in CO2 emissions
SO ENERGY POLICY
LA English
DT Article
DE optimal reductions; CO2 emissions
ID ATMOSPHERIC CARBON-DIOXIDE; COST-BENEFIT-ANALYSIS; CLIMATE-CHANGE;
   MODEL; POLICY; OCEAN
AB Current optimizing climate-economy models use CO2 uptake functions that greatly underestimate both peak atmospheric CO2 concentrations and the time horizon of elevated CO2. As a result these models underestimate potential global warming damages, Here, a more realistic, but practical, carbon cycle parameterization is developed that can be incorporated within an optimizing climate-economy model framework, This method is utilized in conjunction with the DICE model (Nordhaus, 1994) to estimate optimal reductions in CO2 emissions. The results are shown to be extremely sensitive to the pure rate of time preference, rho. For rho=3% (Nordhaus' preferred value), our model predicts an optimal CO2 emission reduction of 13% by the year 2045, as compared to 11% in the original DICE model, But, for rho=0% the optimal emissions reduction rises to 79% in the year 2045 and to 97% by the year 2200, We argue that energy policy should be guided by the rho=0% results for both economic and ethical reasons, A steady-state analysis performed using the DICE model supports the argument that large fractional reductions in CO2 emissions should be undertaken. (C) 1997 Elsevier Science Ltd.
RP Schultz, PA (corresponding author), PENN STATE UNIV,CTR EARTH SYST SCI,DEPT GEOSCI,UNIVERSITY PK,PA 16802, USA.
RI /AAF-6851-2020
OI Schultz, Peter/0000-0003-2056-5191
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NR 49
TC 36
Z9 40
U1 2
U2 63
PU ELSEVIER SCI LTD
PI OXFORD
PA THE BOULEVARD, LANGFORD LANE, KIDLINGTON, OXFORD, OXON, ENGLAND OX5 1GB
SN 0301-4215
J9 ENERG POLICY
JI Energy Policy
PD APR
PY 1997
VL 25
IS 5
BP 491
EP 500
DI 10.1016/S0301-4215(97)00027-X
PG 10
WC Economics; Energy & Fuels; Environmental Sciences; Environmental Studies
WE Science Citation Index Expanded (SCI-EXPANDED); Social Science Citation Index (SSCI)
SC Business & Economics; Energy & Fuels; Environmental Sciences & Ecology
GA YA142
UT WOS:A1997YA14200003
PM 11542949
DA 2026-06-14
ER

PT J
AU Nordhaus, WD
   Popp, D
AF Nordhaus, WD
   Popp, D
TI What is the value of scientific knowledge? An application to global
   warming using the PRICE model
SO ENERGY JOURNAL
LA English
DT Article
AB Governments must cope with the enormous uncertainties about both future climate change as well as the costs and benefits of slowing climate change. This study analyses the value of improved information about a variety of geophysical and economic processes. The value of information is estimated using the ''PRICE model'' which is a probabilistic extension of earlier models of the economics of global warming. The study uses five different approaches to estimating the value of information about all uncertain parameters and about individual parameters. It is estimated that the value of early information is between $1 and $2 billion for each year that resolution of uncertainty is moved toward the present. We estimate that the most important uncertain variables are the damages of climate change and the costs of reducing greenhouse gas emissions. Resolving the uncertainties about these two parameters would contribute 75 percent of the value of improved knowledge.
RP Nordhaus, WD (corresponding author), YALE UNIV,DEPT ECON,POB 208268 YALE STN,NEW HAVEN,CT 06511, USA.
OI GUEYE, Mamadou/0009-0004-4617-5612
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NR 16
TC 114
Z9 131
U1 0
U2 26
PU INT ASSOC ENERGY ECONOMICS
PI CLEVAND
PA 28790 CHAGRIN BLVD, STE 210, CLEVAND, OH 44122
SN 0195-6574
J9 ENERGY J
JI Energy J.
PY 1997
VL 18
IS 1
BP 1
EP 45
PG 45
WC Economics; Energy & Fuels; Environmental Studies
WE Science Citation Index Expanded (SCI-EXPANDED)
SC Business & Economics; Energy & Fuels; Environmental Sciences & Ecology
GA WC954
UT WOS:A1997WC95400002
DA 2026-06-14
ER

PT J
AU Kolstad, CD
AF Kolstad, CD
TI Learning and stock effects in environmental regulation: The case of
   greenhouse gas emissions
SO JOURNAL OF ENVIRONMENTAL ECONOMICS AND MANAGEMENT
LA English
DT Article
ID OPTIMAL TRANSITION PATH; QUASI-OPTION VALUE; WASTE ACCUMULATION;
   DYNAMICS; IRREVERSIBILITY; PRESERVATION; UNCERTAINTY; INFORMATION;
   FLEXIBILITY; DISPOSAL
AB This paper concerns the optimal regulation of greenhouse gases that lead to global climate change. In particular, we focus on uncertainty and learning (which, over time, resolves uncertainty). We present an empirical stochastic model of climate-economy interactions and present results on the tension between postponing control until more is known vs acting now before irreversible climate change takes place. Uncertainty in our model is in the damage caused by global warming. The results suggest that a temporary carbon tax may dominate a permanent one because a temporary tax may induce increased flexibility. (C) 1996 Academic Press, Inc.
RP Kolstad, CD (corresponding author), UNIV CALIF SANTA BARBARA,DEPT ECON,SANTA BARBARA,CA 93106, USA.
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NR 51
TC 166
Z9 186
U1 0
U2 27
PU ACADEMIC PRESS INC JNL-COMP SUBSCRIPTIONS
PI SAN DIEGO
PA 525 B ST, STE 1900, SAN DIEGO, CA 92101-4495
SN 0095-0696
J9 J ENVIRON ECON MANAG
JI J.Environ.Econ.Manage.
PD JUL
PY 1996
VL 31
IS 1
BP 1
EP 18
DI 10.1006/jeem.1996.0028
PG 18
WC Business; Economics; Environmental Studies
WE Social Science Citation Index (SSCI)
SC Business & Economics; Environmental Sciences & Ecology
GA UZ753
UT WOS:A1996UZ75300001
DA 2026-06-14
ER

PT J
AU MANNE, A
   MENDELSOHN, R
   RICHELS, R
AF MANNE, A
   MENDELSOHN, R
   RICHELS, R
TI A MODEL FOR EVALUATING REGIONAL AND GLOBAL EFFECTS OF GHG REDUCTION
   POLICIES
SO ENERGY POLICY
LA English
DT Article
DE CLIMATE CHANGE; INTEGRATED ASSESSMENT; COST-BENEFIT ANALYSIS
AB MERGE provides a framework for thinking about climate change management proposals.  The model is designed to be sufficiently flexible to be used to explore alternative views on a wide range of contentious issues, eg costs, damages, valuation and discounting.  We begin with a description of the model's individual components and show how they fit together.  We then provide an initial application to illustrate how the framework can be used in the assessment of alternative policy options.  Given the level of uncertainty which pervades the climate debate, it would be unrealistic to expect cost-benefit analysis to lead to consensus on a bottom line - at least any time soon.  Rather, models such as MERGE should be viewed as research tools capable of providing insights into which aspects of the debate may be most important.  In this way, they can help focus the discussion and identify the areas where additional research may have the highest pay-off.
C1 YALE UNIV,SCH FORESTRY & ENVIRONM STUDIES,NEW HAVEN,CT 06511.
   ELECT POWER RES INST,PALO ALTO,CA 94303.
C3 Yale University; Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI)
RP MANNE, A (corresponding author), STANFORD UNIV,DEPT OPERAT RES,STANFORD,CA 94305, USA.
RI Mendelsohn, Robert/GZA-9112-2022
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NR 23
TC 387
Z9 457
U1 1
U2 32
PU BUTTERWORTH-HEINEMANN LTD
PI OXFORD
PA LINACRE HOUSE JORDAN HILL, OXFORD, OXON, ENGLAND OX2 8DP
SN 0301-4215
J9 ENERG POLICY
JI Energy Policy
PD JAN
PY 1995
VL 23
IS 1
BP 17
EP 34
DI 10.1016/0301-4215(95)90763-W
PG 18
WC Economics; Energy & Fuels; Environmental Sciences; Environmental Studies
WE Science Citation Index Expanded (SCI-EXPANDED); Social Science Citation Index (SSCI)
SC Business & Economics; Energy & Fuels; Environmental Sciences & Ecology
GA QX096
UT WOS:A1995QX09600006
OA hybrid
DA 2026-06-14
ER

PT J
AU NORDHAUS, WD
AF NORDHAUS, WD
TI ROLLING THE DICE - AN OPTIMAL TRANSITION PATH FOR CONTROLLING GREENHOUSE
   GASES
SO RESOURCE AND ENERGY ECONOMICS
LA English
DT Article; Proceedings Paper
CT SYMP ON LONG-RANGE EXTERNALITIES, AT THE 1992 ANNUAL MEETING OF THE
   AMERICAN ASSOC FOR THE ADVANCEMENT OF SCIENCE
CY FEB, 1992
CL CHICAGO, IL
SP AMER ASSOC ADV SCI
ID ECONOMICS
AB Economic analyses of efficient policies to slow climate change require combining economic and scientific approaches. The present study presents a dynamic integrated climate-economy ('DICE') model. This model can be used to investigate alternative approaches to slowing climate change. Evaluation of five policies suggest that a modest carbon tax would be an efficient approach to slow global warming, while rigid emissions-stabilization approaches would impose significant net economic costs.
RP NORDHAUS, WD (corresponding author), YALE UNIV,COWLES FDN,BOX 1972,YALE STN,NEW HAVEN,CT 06520, USA.
OI GUEYE, Mamadou/0009-0004-4617-5612
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NR 28
TC 276
Z9 337
U1 5
U2 75
PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE BV
PI AMSTERDAM
PA PO BOX 211, 1000 AE AMSTERDAM, NETHERLANDS
SN 0928-7655
J9 RESOUR ENERGY ECON
JI Resour. Energy Econ.
PD MAR
PY 1993
VL 15
IS 1
BP 27
EP 50
DI 10.1016/0928-7655(93)90017-O
PG 24
WC Economics; Energy & Fuels; Environmental Sciences; Environmental Studies
WE Conference Proceedings Citation Index - Social Science &amp; Humanities (CPCI-SSH); Social Science Citation Index (SSCI)
SC Business & Economics; Energy & Fuels; Environmental Sciences & Ecology
GA LG757
UT WOS:A1993LG75700003
DA 2026-06-14
ER

PT J
AU NORDHAUS, WD
AF NORDHAUS, WD
TI AN OPTIMAL TRANSITION PATH FOR CONTROLLING GREENHOUSE GASES
SO SCIENCE
LA English
DT Article
ID ECONOMICS
AB Designing efficient policies to slow global warming requires an approach that combines economic tools with relations from the natural sciences. The dynamic integrated climate-economy (DICE) model presented here, an intertemporal general-equilibrium model of economic growth and climate change, can be used to investigate alternative approaches to slowing climate change. Evaluation of five policies suggests that a modest carbon tax would be an efficient approach to slow global warming, whereas rigid emissions- or climate-stabilization approaches would impose significant net economic costs.
RP NORDHAUS, WD (corresponding author), YALE UNIV,COWLES FDN,BOX 1972 YALE STN,NEW HAVEN,CT 06520, USA.
OI GUEYE, Mamadou/0009-0004-4617-5612
CR [Anonymous], 1992, POLICY IMPLICATIONS
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   Nordhaus W.D., 1991, ENERG J, V12, P37, DOI [DOI 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-VOL12-NO1-4, 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol12-No1-4]
   NORDHAUS WD, 1991, ECON J, V101, P920, DOI 10.2307/2233864
   NORDHAUS WD, 1991, AM ECON REV, V81, P146
   NORDHAUS WD, 1992, 1009 YAL U COWL F DI
   NORDHAUS WD, 1991, 1990 P WORKSH EC EN
   NORDHAUS WD, IN PRESS POLICIES EC
   Nordhaus WilliamD., 1979, Efficient Use of Energy Resources"
   Ramsey FP, 1928, ECON J, V38, P543, DOI 10.2307/2224098
   SCHLESINGER ME, 1990, J CLIMATE, V3, P1233
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NR 18
TC 602
Z9 735
U1 10
U2 255
PU AMER ASSOC ADVANCEMENT SCIENCE
PI WASHINGTON
PA 1200 NEW YORK AVE, NW, WASHINGTON, DC 20005
SN 0036-8075
J9 SCIENCE
JI Science
PD NOV 20
PY 1992
VL 258
IS 5086
BP 1315
EP 1319
DI 10.1126/science.258.5086.1315
PG 5
WC Multidisciplinary Sciences
WE Science Citation Index Expanded (SCI-EXPANDED); Social Science Citation Index (SSCI)
SC Science & Technology - Other Topics
GA JY958
UT WOS:A1992JY95800025
PM 17778354
DA 2026-06-14
ER

EF