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<front>
<journal-meta>
<journal-id journal-id-type="publisher">EGUsphere</journal-id>
<journal-title-group>
<journal-title>EGUsphere</journal-title>
<abbrev-journal-title abbrev-type="publisher">EGUsphere</abbrev-journal-title>
<abbrev-journal-title abbrev-type="nlm-ta">EGUsphere</abbrev-journal-title>
</journal-title-group>
<issn pub-type="epub"></issn>
<publisher><publisher-name>Copernicus Publications</publisher-name>
<publisher-loc>Göttingen, Germany</publisher-loc>
</publisher>
</journal-meta>
<article-meta>
<article-id pub-id-type="doi">10.5194/egusphere-2026-3766</article-id>
<title-group>
<article-title>Overcoming multimodalities in age&amp;ndash;depth model posteriors using On&amp;ndash;the&amp;ndash;fly Probability Enhanced Sampling and Parallel Tempering</article-title>
</title-group>
<contrib-group><contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Kjellson</surname>
<given-names>Hanna</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0009-0002-1809-0473</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1">
<sup>1</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Nilsson</surname>
<given-names>Andreas</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1">
<sup>1</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Irbäck</surname>
<given-names>Anders</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1">
<sup>1</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
</contrib-group><aff id="aff1">
<label>1</label>
<addr-line>Department of Earth and Environmental Science, Lund University, Sölvegatan 12, 223 62, Lund, Sweden</addr-line>
</aff>
<pub-date pub-type="epub">
<day>15</day>
<month>07</month>
<year>2026</year>
</pub-date>
<volume>2026</volume>
<fpage>1</fpage>
<lpage>21</lpage>
<permissions>
<copyright-statement>Copyright: &#x000a9; 2026 Hanna Kjellson et al.</copyright-statement>
<copyright-year>2026</copyright-year>
<license license-type="open-access">
<license-p>This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License. To view a copy of this licence, visit <ext-link ext-link-type="uri"  xlink:href="https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/</ext-link></license-p>
</license>
</permissions>
<self-uri xlink:href="https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2026/egusphere-2026-3766/">This article is available from https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2026/egusphere-2026-3766/</self-uri>
<self-uri xlink:href="https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2026/egusphere-2026-3766/egusphere-2026-3766.pdf">The full text article is available as a PDF file from https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2026/egusphere-2026-3766/egusphere-2026-3766.pdf</self-uri>
<abstract>
<p>Bayesian age-depth models are central to paleoclimate research, linking depth in natural archives to calendar age. When synchronizing variable data from different sites, inference in these models requires sampling from high-dimensional, often multimodal posteriors. Consequently, standard samplers become trapped in local optima, miss plausible chronologies, and bias downstream analyses. Here, we investigate two enhanced sampling approaches, On-the-fly Probability Enhanced Sampling (OPES) and Parallel Tempering (PT), and find that tempering only the likelihood components that drive multimodality can improve exploration. Our results suggest that OPES and PT combined with targeted tempering provide robust age-depth models with implications for a wide range of applications in Earth sciences, including paleoclimate and paleomagnetic reconstructions.</p>
</abstract>
<counts><page-count count="21"/></counts>
<funding-group>
<award-group id="gs1">
<funding-source>European Research Council</funding-source>
<award-id>101125394</award-id>
</award-group>
</funding-group>
</article-meta>
</front>
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<back>
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</article>