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<front>
<journal-meta>
<journal-id journal-id-type="publisher">EGUsphere</journal-id>
<journal-title-group>
<journal-title>EGUsphere</journal-title>
<abbrev-journal-title abbrev-type="publisher">EGUsphere</abbrev-journal-title>
<abbrev-journal-title abbrev-type="nlm-ta">EGUsphere</abbrev-journal-title>
</journal-title-group>
<issn pub-type="epub"></issn>
<publisher><publisher-name>Copernicus Publications</publisher-name>
<publisher-loc>Göttingen, Germany</publisher-loc>
</publisher>
</journal-meta>
<article-meta>
<article-id pub-id-type="doi">10.5194/egusphere-2026-3749</article-id>
<title-group>
<article-title>Quantifying and Predicting Austral Summer Mesopause Height with a Temperature-Based Upwelling Proxy</article-title>
</title-group>
<contrib-group><contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Zhang</surname>
<given-names>Liang</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1">
<sup>1</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Liu</surname>
<given-names>Zhongfang</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1">
<sup>1</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Zhu</surname>
<given-names>Yajun</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8884-0885</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff2">
<sup>2</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
</contrib-group><aff id="aff1">
<label>1</label>
<addr-line>State Key Laboratory of Marine Geology, Tongji University, Shanghai, 200092, China</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff2">
<label>2</label>
<addr-line>State Key Laboratory of Solar Activity and Space Weather, National Space Science Center, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, 100190, China</addr-line>
</aff>
<pub-date pub-type="epub">
<day>14</day>
<month>07</month>
<year>2026</year>
</pub-date>
<volume>2026</volume>
<fpage>1</fpage>
<lpage>28</lpage>
<permissions>
<copyright-statement>Copyright: &#x000a9; 2026 Liang Zhang et al.</copyright-statement>
<copyright-year>2026</copyright-year>
<license license-type="open-access">
<license-p>This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License. To view a copy of this licence, visit <ext-link ext-link-type="uri"  xlink:href="https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/</ext-link></license-p>
</license>
</permissions>
<self-uri xlink:href="https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2026/egusphere-2026-3749/">This article is available from https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2026/egusphere-2026-3749/</self-uri>
<self-uri xlink:href="https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2026/egusphere-2026-3749/egusphere-2026-3749.pdf">The full text article is available as a PDF file from https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2026/egusphere-2026-3749/egusphere-2026-3749.pdf</self-uri>
<abstract>
<p>The mesopause, the coldest region of Earth&amp;rsquo;s atmosphere near 85&amp;ndash;100 km, is the boundary between mesosphere and thermosphere, yet its variability remains poorly quantified. Using 24 years (2002&amp;ndash;2025) of the Sounding of the Atmosphere using Broadband Emission Radiometry (SABER) temperature measurements, we show that the high-latitude austral summer mesopause height is closely linked to the T80 index&amp;mdash;a temperature- based proxy at 80 km for the strength of summer polar upwelling. On interannual timescales, the T80 index is almost perfectly correlated with the December mesopause height across 30&amp;deg; S&amp;ndash;80&amp;deg; S, with a correlation coefficient (R) of 0.98 and a sensitivity of 0.36 km K&lt;sup&gt;&amp;minus;1&lt;/sup&gt; at 60&amp;deg; S. On daily timescales, this relationship weakens but remains significant (R = 0.48) at latitudes poleward of 55&amp;deg; S. The temperature field exhibits a vertical dipole response to T80 index: stronger upwelling (lower T80) induces adiabatic cooling below ~90 km and chemical/radiative heating above ~90 km through bottom-up coupling among dynamical, microphysical, and chemical processes. This dipole temperature response shifts the temperature profile downward, thereby lowering the mesopause height. The strong month-to-month persistence of both the T80 index and mesopause temperature provides substantial predictive skill, enabling one-month-ahead forecast of December mesopause height with correlation up to 0.90. Our results indicate that internal dynamics dominate the interannual summer mesopause variability, while signals of 11-year solar cycle and long-term CO&lt;sub&gt;2&lt;/sub&gt; cooling cannot be reliably isolated from the 24-year observations.</p>
</abstract>
<counts><page-count count="28"/></counts>
<funding-group>
<award-group id="gs1">
<funding-source>National Natural Science Foundation of China</funding-source>
<award-id>42025602</award-id>
<award-id>41905059</award-id>
</award-group>
</funding-group>
</article-meta>
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