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<front>
<journal-meta>
<journal-id journal-id-type="publisher">EGUsphere</journal-id>
<journal-title-group>
<journal-title>EGUsphere</journal-title>
<abbrev-journal-title abbrev-type="publisher">EGUsphere</abbrev-journal-title>
<abbrev-journal-title abbrev-type="nlm-ta">EGUsphere</abbrev-journal-title>
</journal-title-group>
<issn pub-type="epub"></issn>
<publisher><publisher-name>Copernicus Publications</publisher-name>
<publisher-loc>Göttingen, Germany</publisher-loc>
</publisher>
</journal-meta>
<article-meta>
<article-id pub-id-type="doi">10.5194/egusphere-2026-3738</article-id>
<title-group>
<article-title>Isolating the boreal winter response to the Pinatubo and Krakatoa eruptions using large-ensemble single-forcing simulations</article-title>
</title-group>
<contrib-group><contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Garfinkel</surname>
<given-names>Chaim I.</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7258-666X</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1">
<sup>1</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Avisar</surname>
<given-names>David</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1">
<sup>1</sup>
</xref>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff2">
<sup>2</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Huo</surname>
<given-names>Wenjuan</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9807-4726</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff3">
<sup>3</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Kuchar</surname>
<given-names>Ales</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3672-6626</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff4">
<sup>4</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Minobe</surname>
<given-names>Shoshiro</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9487-9006</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff5">
<sup>5</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Osprey</surname>
<given-names>Scott</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8751-1211</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff6">
<sup>6</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Perny</surname>
<given-names>Katharina</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4454-9794</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff4">
<sup>4</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Wright</surname>
<given-names>Jonathon S.</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6551-7017</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff7">
<sup>7</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
</contrib-group><aff id="aff1">
<label>1</label>
<addr-line>Fredy &amp; Nadine Herrmann Institute of Earth Sciences, The Hebrew University of Jerusalem, Israel</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff2">
<label>2</label>
<addr-line>Department of Applied Mathematics, Israel Institute for Biological Research, Ness Ziona, Israel</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff3">
<label>3</label>
<addr-line>GEOMAR Helmholtz Centre for Ocean Research, Kiel, Germany</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff4">
<label>4</label>
<addr-line>Institute of Meteorology and Climatology, BOKU University, Vienna, Austria</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff5">
<label>5</label>
<addr-line>Department of Earth and Planetary Sciences, Hokkaido University, Sapporo, Japan</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff6">
<label>6</label>
<addr-line>Department of Physics, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff7">
<label>7</label>
<addr-line>Department of Earth System Science, Institute for Global Change Studies, Ministry of Education Key Laboratory for Earth System Modeling, Tsinghua University, Beijing, China</addr-line>
</aff>
<pub-date pub-type="epub">
<day>24</day>
<month>07</month>
<year>2026</year>
</pub-date>
<volume>2026</volume>
<fpage>1</fpage>
<lpage>24</lpage>
<permissions>
<copyright-statement>Copyright: &#x000a9; 2026 Chaim I. Garfinkel et al.</copyright-statement>
<copyright-year>2026</copyright-year>
<license license-type="open-access">
<license-p>This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License. To view a copy of this licence, visit <ext-link ext-link-type="uri"  xlink:href="https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/</ext-link></license-p>
</license>
</permissions>
<self-uri xlink:href="https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2026/egusphere-2026-3738/">This article is available from https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2026/egusphere-2026-3738/</self-uri>
<self-uri xlink:href="https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2026/egusphere-2026-3738/egusphere-2026-3738.pdf">The full text article is available as a PDF file from https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2026/egusphere-2026-3738/egusphere-2026-3738.pdf</self-uri>
<abstract>
<p>The Northern Hemisphere wintertime circulation response to the eruptions of Krakatoa and Pinatubo is revisited in large ensembles from eight modeling centers with only one time-varying external forcing: volcanic eruptions. All eight models show a warming of the tropical lower stratosphere. In six of the models, the meridional temperature gradient in the winter stratosphere is enhanced, leading to a strengthened stratospheric polar vortex, a positive phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation, a poleward shift in storm tracks, and warm surface temperatures during the winter over subpolar Eurasia. While this warming over subpolar Eurasia is statistically significant in the multi-model mean and in four of the individual models, at least 34 eruptions are needed before it can be robustly distinguished from the global mean cooling with 5 % confidence. An El Ni&lt;span&gt;&amp;ntilde;&lt;/span&gt;o response is evident shortly after eruption in these models, which transitions from a Central Pacific morphology in the first winter to an East Pacific morphology in the second, and subsequently to an La Ni&lt;span&gt;&amp;ntilde;&lt;/span&gt;a response in the third and fourth winters. While these ENSO responses require 48 or more eruptions to emerge from the noise, they nonetheless lead to surface impacts over North America. However, these surface impacts do not resemble those classically associated with ENSO in the first year after eruption, likely because the tropical precipitation response differs as well due to the large-scale reduction in tropical precipitation. There is substantial diversity in the magnitude of these responses across models, likely owing to differences in tropical stratospheric diabatic heating despite the models using the same forcing.</p>
</abstract>
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