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<front>
<journal-meta>
<journal-id journal-id-type="publisher">EGUsphere</journal-id>
<journal-title-group>
<journal-title>EGUsphere</journal-title>
<abbrev-journal-title abbrev-type="publisher">EGUsphere</abbrev-journal-title>
<abbrev-journal-title abbrev-type="nlm-ta">EGUsphere</abbrev-journal-title>
</journal-title-group>
<issn pub-type="epub"></issn>
<publisher><publisher-name>Copernicus Publications</publisher-name>
<publisher-loc>Göttingen, Germany</publisher-loc>
</publisher>
</journal-meta>
<article-meta>
<article-id pub-id-type="doi">10.5194/egusphere-2026-3721</article-id>
<title-group>
<article-title>ATDT v1.0 &amp;ndash; Attribution Tool for Daily-to-monthly Temperatures and its application to record-breaking Northern European heatwave of July 2025</article-title>
</title-group>
<contrib-group><contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Toropainen</surname>
<given-names>Antti</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7274-3135</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1">
<sup>1</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Rantanen</surname>
<given-names>Mika</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4279-0322</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff2">
<sup>2</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Räisänen</surname>
<given-names>Jouni</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3657-1588</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1">
<sup>1</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
</contrib-group><aff id="aff1">
<label>1</label>
<addr-line>University of Helsinki, Institute for Atmospheric and Earth System Research/Physics, Faculty of Science, P.O. Box 64,  Helsinki, 00140, Finland</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff2">
<label>2</label>
<addr-line>Finnish Meteorological Institute, Erik Palménin aukio 1, Helsinki, 00560, Finland</addr-line>
</aff>
<pub-date pub-type="epub">
<day>22</day>
<month>07</month>
<year>2026</year>
</pub-date>
<volume>2026</volume>
<fpage>1</fpage>
<lpage>30</lpage>
<permissions>
<copyright-statement>Copyright: &#x000a9; 2026 Antti Toropainen et al.</copyright-statement>
<copyright-year>2026</copyright-year>
<license license-type="open-access">
<license-p>This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License. To view a copy of this licence, visit <ext-link ext-link-type="uri"  xlink:href="https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/</ext-link></license-p>
</license>
</permissions>
<self-uri xlink:href="https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2026/egusphere-2026-3721/">This article is available from https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2026/egusphere-2026-3721/</self-uri>
<self-uri xlink:href="https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2026/egusphere-2026-3721/egusphere-2026-3721.pdf">The full text article is available as a PDF file from https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2026/egusphere-2026-3721/egusphere-2026-3721.pdf</self-uri>
<abstract>
<p>We present here ATDT (Attribution Tool for Daily-to-monthly Temperatures), a method for quantifying the effect of climate change on local daily mean, maximum and minimum temperatures as well as their 2&amp;ndash;31-day moving averages for locations that have long observational time-series available. The method utilizes CMIP6 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6) model data and a time series of global mean temperature to estimate climate-change-induced shifts in both the mean and variance of local temperature distributions. As a case study, we apply the method to 23 weather stations in Fennoscandia for two 14-day periods in July of 2025, when an intense heatwave occurred in Northern Europe. We find that the station-specific average maximum temperatures in 12&amp;ndash;25 July were 1.5 to 2.4 &amp;deg;C higher, whereas the minimum temperatures in 19 July to 1 August were 1.4 to 2.3 &amp;deg;C higher than they would have been under pre-industrial conditions represented by the year 1900. Furthermore, we estimate that these temperatures were made 3.0&amp;ndash;14.6 times (maximum temperature) and 6.1&amp;ndash;22.9 times (minimum temperature) more likely by climate change since the year 1900. The presented method enables real-time attribution of climate change on observed temperatures and can support operational meteorologists in climate change communication.</p>
</abstract>
<counts><page-count count="30"/></counts>
<funding-group>
<award-group id="gs1">
<funding-source>Research Council of Finland</funding-source>
<award-id>362263</award-id>
<award-id>362264</award-id>
</award-group>
</funding-group>
</article-meta>
</front>
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