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<front>
<journal-meta>
<journal-id journal-id-type="publisher">EGUsphere</journal-id>
<journal-title-group>
<journal-title>EGUsphere</journal-title>
<abbrev-journal-title abbrev-type="publisher">EGUsphere</abbrev-journal-title>
<abbrev-journal-title abbrev-type="nlm-ta">EGUsphere</abbrev-journal-title>
</journal-title-group>
<issn pub-type="epub"></issn>
<publisher><publisher-name>Copernicus Publications</publisher-name>
<publisher-loc>Göttingen, Germany</publisher-loc>
</publisher>
</journal-meta>
<article-meta>
<article-id pub-id-type="doi">10.5194/egusphere-2026-3700</article-id>
<title-group>
<article-title>Towards Better Simulations of Liquid Water Path during Stratocumulus-to-Cumulus Transition: Insights from Gaussian Process Emulator, XGBoost and MAGIC Observations</article-title>
</title-group>
<contrib-group><contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Ghosh</surname>
<given-names>Pratapaditya</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5402-5479</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1">
<sup>1</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Zheng</surname>
<given-names>Xue</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9372-1776</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1">
<sup>1</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Beydoun</surname>
<given-names>Hassan</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1">
<sup>1</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Bogenschutz</surname>
<given-names>Peter</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1">
<sup>1</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Zhang</surname>
<given-names>Yunyan</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1">
<sup>1</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
</contrib-group><aff id="aff1">
<label>1</label>
<addr-line>Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, 7000 East Avenue, Livermore, CA, USA</addr-line>
</aff>
<pub-date pub-type="epub">
<day>24</day>
<month>07</month>
<year>2026</year>
</pub-date>
<volume>2026</volume>
<fpage>1</fpage>
<lpage>32</lpage>
<permissions>
<copyright-statement>Copyright: &#x000a9; 2026 Pratapaditya Ghosh et al.</copyright-statement>
<copyright-year>2026</copyright-year>
<license license-type="open-access">
<license-p>This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License. To view a copy of this licence, visit <ext-link ext-link-type="uri"  xlink:href="https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/</ext-link></license-p>
</license>
</permissions>
<self-uri xlink:href="https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2026/egusphere-2026-3700/">This article is available from https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2026/egusphere-2026-3700/</self-uri>
<self-uri xlink:href="https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2026/egusphere-2026-3700/egusphere-2026-3700.pdf">The full text article is available as a PDF file from https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2026/egusphere-2026-3700/egusphere-2026-3700.pdf</self-uri>
<abstract>
<p>Simulating Liquid Water Path (LWP) during stratocumulus-to-cumulus transition (SCT) remains challenging for storm-resolving models, with biases varying across cloud regimes. We use the storm-resolving DP-EAMxx model and a perturbed-parameter ensemble of three warm-rain microphysical parameters to investigate LWP biases during an SCT event observed in the MAGIC field campaign. Gaussian process emulators trained on observation-derived metrics of mean LWP bias and LWP decorrelation timescale bias are used to identify low-bias parameter combinations within the explored parameter space. While similar parameter constraints are obtained for the stratocumulus (Sc) and transition (Tr) phases, the low-bias parameter combinations for the cumulus (Cu) phase differ substantially, indicating requirement of a stronger reduction in autoconversion and accretion rates for a given prescribed droplet number concentration. Using an overlapping low-bias parameter set from the Sc and Tr phases, the mean LWP bias improves from &lt;span&gt;&amp;minus;&lt;/span&gt;31 and &lt;span&gt;&amp;minus;&lt;/span&gt;22 g m&lt;sup&gt;&lt;span&gt;&amp;minus;&lt;/span&gt;2&lt;/sup&gt; to &lt;span&gt;&amp;minus;&lt;/span&gt;1 and 3 g m&lt;sup&gt;&lt;span&gt;&amp;minus;&lt;/span&gt;2&lt;/sup&gt; in the Sc and Tr phases, respectively, but degrades in the Cu phase. An independent XGBoost model with SHAP attribution, trained using DP-EAMxx-simulated process-level diagnostics and meteorological state, supports the emulator sensitivities: LWP bias in Sc is strongly associated with warm-rain microphysics, whereas dynamical, radiative, and thermodynamic influences become more prominent in Tr and Cu. These results show where a limited set of parameters is effective in improving model performance and where additional sources of uncertainty likely need to be considered across regimes. More broadly, we demonstrate a proof-of-concept observation-constrained framework for the diagnosis of storm-resolving model bias.</p>
</abstract>
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<funding-group>
<award-group id="gs1">
<funding-source>U.S. Department of Energy</funding-source>
<award-id>DOE ECRP (SCW1740)</award-id>
</award-group>
<award-group id="gs2">
<funding-source>U.S. Department of Energy</funding-source>
<award-id>DOE THREAD (SCW1800)</award-id>
</award-group>
</funding-group>
</article-meta>
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