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<front>
<journal-meta>
<journal-id journal-id-type="publisher">EGUsphere</journal-id>
<journal-title-group>
<journal-title>EGUsphere</journal-title>
<abbrev-journal-title abbrev-type="publisher">EGUsphere</abbrev-journal-title>
<abbrev-journal-title abbrev-type="nlm-ta">EGUsphere</abbrev-journal-title>
</journal-title-group>
<issn pub-type="epub"></issn>
<publisher><publisher-name>Copernicus Publications</publisher-name>
<publisher-loc>Göttingen, Germany</publisher-loc>
</publisher>
</journal-meta>
<article-meta>
<article-id pub-id-type="doi">10.5194/egusphere-2026-3664</article-id>
<title-group>
<article-title>Hydrological Modeling of Climate Change Impacts on Alpine Catchments: Shifting Snow Dynamics, Runoff Regimes, and the Frequency of Extremes</article-title>
</title-group>
<contrib-group><contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Seelig</surname>
<given-names>Simon</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2740-7260</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1">
<sup>1</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Seelig</surname>
<given-names>Magdalena</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0009-0009-3252-9551</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1">
<sup>1</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Vremec</surname>
<given-names>Matevž</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2730-494X</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1">
<sup>1</sup>
</xref>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff2">
<sup>2</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Masten</surname>
<given-names>Martin</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0009-0008-7846-5349</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1">
<sup>1</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Wagner</surname>
<given-names>Thomas</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9149-0305</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1">
<sup>1</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Krainer</surname>
<given-names>Karl</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff3">
<sup>3</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Avian</surname>
<given-names>Michael</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff4">
<sup>4</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Haslinger</surname>
<given-names>Klaus</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2237-9894</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff4">
<sup>4</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Brielmann</surname>
<given-names>Heike</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff5">
<sup>5</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Leis</surname>
<given-names>Albrecht</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0002-4154-6945</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff6">
<sup>6</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Ribis</surname>
<given-names>Markus</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff7">
<sup>7</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Obwegs</surname>
<given-names>Maria</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1">
<sup>1</sup>
</xref>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff9">
<sup>9</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Hausleber</surname>
<given-names>Matthias</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1">
<sup>1</sup>
</xref>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff10">
<sup>10</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Philippitsch</surname>
<given-names>Rudolf</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff8">
<sup>8</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Mauthner-Weber</surname>
<given-names>Richild</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff8">
<sup>8</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Überreiter</surname>
<given-names>Ernst</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff8">
<sup>8</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Winkler</surname>
<given-names>Gerfried</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1742-1242</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1">
<sup>1</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
</contrib-group><aff id="aff1">
<label>1</label>
<addr-line>Department of Earth Sciences, NAWI Graz Geocenter, University of Graz, Heinrichstraße 26, 8010 Graz, Austria</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff2">
<label>2</label>
<addr-line>Alma Mater Europaea University, Slovenska ulica 17, 2000 Maribor, Slovenia</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff3">
<label>3</label>
<addr-line>Institute of Geology, University of Innsbruck, Innrain 52, 6020 Innsbruck, Austria</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff4">
<label>4</label>
<addr-line>Department of Climate Impact Research, GeoSphere Austria, Hohe Warte 38, 1190 Vienna, Austria</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff5">
<label>5</label>
<addr-line>Team Groundwater, Environment Agency Austria, Spittelauer Lände 5, 1090 Vienna, Austria</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff6">
<label>6</label>
<addr-line>JR-AquaConSol, Steyrergasse 21, 8010 Graz, Austria</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff7">
<label>7</label>
<addr-line>geo.zt gmbh poscher beratende geologen, Saline 17, 6060 Hall in Tirol, Austria</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff8">
<label>8</label>
<addr-line>Federal Ministry of Agriculture and Forestry, Climate and Environmental Protection, Regions and Water Management, Marxergasse 2, 1030 Vienna, Austria</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff9">
<label>9</label>
<addr-line>now at Geo Group Austria ZT GmbH, Reininghausstraße 13a, 8020 Graz, Austria</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff10">
<label>10</label>
<addr-line>now at Geoconsult ZT GmbH, Leechgasse 37, 8010 Graz, Austria</addr-line>
</aff>
<pub-date pub-type="epub">
<day>22</day>
<month>07</month>
<year>2026</year>
</pub-date>
<volume>2026</volume>
<fpage>1</fpage>
<lpage>40</lpage>
<permissions>
<copyright-statement>Copyright: &#x000a9; 2026 Simon Seelig et al.</copyright-statement>
<copyright-year>2026</copyright-year>
<license license-type="open-access">
<license-p>This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License. To view a copy of this licence, visit <ext-link ext-link-type="uri"  xlink:href="https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/</ext-link></license-p>
</license>
</permissions>
<self-uri xlink:href="https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2026/egusphere-2026-3664/">This article is available from https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2026/egusphere-2026-3664/</self-uri>
<self-uri xlink:href="https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2026/egusphere-2026-3664/egusphere-2026-3664.pdf">The full text article is available as a PDF file from https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2026/egusphere-2026-3664/egusphere-2026-3664.pdf</self-uri>
<abstract>
<p>Climate change is fundamentally restructuring the alpine hydrological cycle, yet how shifting snow dynamics interact with aquifer storage to regulate downstream impacts remains poorly constrained. This interaction is particularly critical in mid- to high-altitude headwaters increasingly dominated by rainfall, where sediment accumulations such as rock glaciers act as hydrogeological buffers. To investigate these dynamics, we assess the streamflow response of 15 nested sub-catchments across five study sites in the Austrian Alps, spanning diverse climatic, geomorphic, and geological conditions. High-resolution field observations combined with satellite-derived snow data were used to calibrate a cascading modeling framework that resolves hydrological processes from individual rock glacier springs and small headwaters (&amp;lt;1 km&lt;sup&gt;2&lt;/sup&gt;) to downstream river catchments up to 200 km&lt;sup&gt;2&lt;/sup&gt;. Using an ensemble of 40 climate projections across Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) 2.6, 4.5, and 8.5, we simulate hydrological change through the 21st century. We quantify these impacts in terms of snow and runoff seasonality, magnitude and significance of hydrometeorological index alterations, and shifts in return periods of historical 10-year extremes. Our results indicate a seasonal reorganization of runoff, with the transition from snow-dominated to rain-influenced regimes progressing asynchronously across catchments. This variation in timing is mediated by elevation, morphology, local climate, and bedrock geology, resulting in contrasting responses between headwater and downstream reaches. Headwater catchments are the most vulnerable to these changes, as their localized aquifers are too small to offset declining seasonal snow storage, earlier spring melt, and intensifying summer flow deficit. In contrast, downstream aquifer systems, including karst formations and valley sediments, more effectively dampen these alterations, although they cannot fully compensate for the loss of cryospheric storage. Across all but the highest elevations, the transition toward rain-dominated regimes drives an asymmetrical shift in hydrological extremes, characterized by more pronounced high flows but less severe low flows. As snow-rich winters decline and the snow season shortens, stronger coupling between precipitation and runoff enhances catchment responsiveness, and more frequent rain-on-snow events amplify early-season peak flows. Conversely, increased winter rainfall and early snowmelt sustain aquifer recharge, thereby buffering streamflow and reducing the severity of low-flow events. Together, these responses show that subsurface storage redistributes changes in flow extremes, yet cannot counteract the broader transition toward a flashier, precipitation-driven runoff regime. This heightened responsiveness of catchment runoff to atmospheric forcing underscores the need for adaptive water management strategies that navigate simultaneous changes in seasonal water budgets, short-term variability, and the shifting frequency of extremes.</p>
</abstract>
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