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<front>
<journal-meta>
<journal-id journal-id-type="publisher">EGUsphere</journal-id>
<journal-title-group>
<journal-title>EGUsphere</journal-title>
<abbrev-journal-title abbrev-type="publisher">EGUsphere</abbrev-journal-title>
<abbrev-journal-title abbrev-type="nlm-ta">EGUsphere</abbrev-journal-title>
</journal-title-group>
<issn pub-type="epub"></issn>
<publisher><publisher-name>Copernicus Publications</publisher-name>
<publisher-loc>Göttingen, Germany</publisher-loc>
</publisher>
</journal-meta>
<article-meta>
<article-id pub-id-type="doi">10.5194/egusphere-2026-3631</article-id>
<title-group>
<article-title>Emergence of chaos in the tropical atmosphere: Study of the weak temperature gradient system</article-title>
</title-group>
<contrib-group><contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Vannitsem</surname>
<given-names>Stéphane</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1734-1042</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1">
<sup>1</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Demaeyer</surname>
<given-names>Jonathan</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5098-404X</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff2">
<sup>2</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
</contrib-group><aff id="aff1">
<label>1</label>
<addr-line>School of Physical and Mathematical Sciences &amp; The Asian School of the Environment, Nanyang Technological University,  Singapore</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff2">
<label>2</label>
<addr-line>Meteorological and Climatological Research Service, Royal Meteorological Institute of Belgium, Belgium</addr-line>
</aff>
<pub-date pub-type="epub">
<day>30</day>
<month>06</month>
<year>2026</year>
</pub-date>
<volume>2026</volume>
<fpage>1</fpage>
<lpage>20</lpage>
<permissions>
<copyright-statement>Copyright: &#x000a9; 2026 Stéphane Vannitsem</copyright-statement>
<copyright-year>2026</copyright-year>
<license license-type="open-access">
<license-p>This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License. To view a copy of this licence, visit <ext-link ext-link-type="uri"  xlink:href="https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/</ext-link></license-p>
</license>
</permissions>
<self-uri xlink:href="https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2026/egusphere-2026-3631/">This article is available from https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2026/egusphere-2026-3631/</self-uri>
<self-uri xlink:href="https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2026/egusphere-2026-3631/egusphere-2026-3631.pdf">The full text article is available as a PDF file from https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2026/egusphere-2026-3631/egusphere-2026-3631.pdf</self-uri>
<abstract>
<p>The atmospheric tropical belt is believed to be more predictable than the extratropics. This question is revisited here by exploring the emergence of chaos in reduced-order model versions of the vorticity equation under the weak temperature gradient hypothesis, which provides a good description of the large-scale tropical atmosphere. The analysis reveals that under fairly realistic divergence forcing amplitudes, chaos may emerge, sometimes with Lyapunov time scales of less than a day. This result contrasts with the idea of a predictable tropical atmosphere, and opens important questions on the effective origin of predictability in the Tropics.</p>
</abstract>
<counts><page-count count="20"/></counts>
</article-meta>
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