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<front>
<journal-meta>
<journal-id journal-id-type="publisher">EGUsphere</journal-id>
<journal-title-group>
<journal-title>EGUsphere</journal-title>
<abbrev-journal-title abbrev-type="publisher">EGUsphere</abbrev-journal-title>
<abbrev-journal-title abbrev-type="nlm-ta">EGUsphere</abbrev-journal-title>
</journal-title-group>
<issn pub-type="epub"></issn>
<publisher><publisher-name>Copernicus Publications</publisher-name>
<publisher-loc>Göttingen, Germany</publisher-loc>
</publisher>
</journal-meta>
<article-meta>
<article-id pub-id-type="doi">10.5194/egusphere-2026-3495</article-id>
<title-group>
<article-title>Attribution of aDGVM mismatches in biomass and tree cover across Africa</article-title>
</title-group>
<contrib-group><contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Scheiter</surname>
<given-names>Simon</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5449-841X</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1">
<sup>1</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Langan</surname>
<given-names>Liam</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0002-4765-9510</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1">
<sup>1</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
</contrib-group><aff id="aff1">
<label>1</label>
<addr-line>Senckenberg Biodiversity and Climate Research Centre (SBiK-F), Senckenberganlage 25, 60325 Frankfurt am Main, Germany</addr-line>
</aff>
<pub-date pub-type="epub">
<day>15</day>
<month>07</month>
<year>2026</year>
</pub-date>
<volume>2026</volume>
<fpage>1</fpage>
<lpage>26</lpage>
<permissions>
<copyright-statement>Copyright: &#x000a9; 2026 Simon Scheiter</copyright-statement>
<copyright-year>2026</copyright-year>
<license license-type="open-access">
<license-p>This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License. To view a copy of this licence, visit <ext-link ext-link-type="uri"  xlink:href="https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/</ext-link></license-p>
</license>
</permissions>
<self-uri xlink:href="https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2026/egusphere-2026-3495/">This article is available from https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2026/egusphere-2026-3495/</self-uri>
<self-uri xlink:href="https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2026/egusphere-2026-3495/egusphere-2026-3495.pdf">The full text article is available as a PDF file from https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2026/egusphere-2026-3495/egusphere-2026-3495.pdf</self-uri>
<abstract>
<p>Dynamic global vegetation models (DGVMs) are commonly evaluated against satellite-derived products such as biomass or tree-cover. Yet, most studies provide error metrics and maps that reveal where models fail rather than why. Here, we develop a residual-analysis framework to diagnose systematic mismatches between aDGVM results and remotely sensed aboveground biomass and tree cover and attribute them to climate, fire, and human influence. We computed grid-cell residuals between aDGVM simulations and remote-sensing estimates and modeled these residuals using generalized additive models (GAMs) with bioclimatic variables, fire activity, human footprint and population density, as well as a spatial smooth. Models were checked for concurvity and basis-dimension adequacy, and evaluated using spatial block cross-validation. For aboveground biomass, a GAM with twelve smooth terms explained 80.3 % of residual deviance (adjusted &lt;em&gt;R&lt;sup&gt;2 &lt;/sup&gt;&lt;/em&gt;= 0.798), while for tree cover, a GAM with similar structure explained 78.5 % of residual deviance (adjusted &lt;em&gt;R&lt;sup&gt;2 &lt;/sup&gt;&lt;/em&gt;= 0.78). Strikingly, bioclimatic variables dominated residuals in 82.9 % of AGB grid cells, not the processes known to be absent from aDGVM, such as nitrogen cycling and land use. This suggests that re-calibrating existing climate responses would reduce model bias more than adding missing process modules. Fire and human pressure played a proportionally larger role for tree cover (42.3 % of grid cells) than for biomass (17.3 %), reflecting distinct ecological controls on net primary production versus canopy dynamics. A persistent spatial signal after accounting for all predictors (unique &lt;em&gt;R&lt;sup&gt;2&lt;/sup&gt;&lt;/em&gt; = 11.0 % AGB, 9.6 % TC) points to unmeasured processes including soil properties, wild megafauna, and land-use history. The framework transforms descriptive DGVM error maps into quantitative, spatially explicit process attribution directly translating model-data mismatches into prioritized development targets for next-generation vegetation models.</p>
</abstract>
<counts><page-count count="26"/></counts>
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