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<front>
<journal-meta>
<journal-id journal-id-type="publisher">EGUsphere</journal-id>
<journal-title-group>
<journal-title>EGUsphere</journal-title>
<abbrev-journal-title abbrev-type="publisher">EGUsphere</abbrev-journal-title>
<abbrev-journal-title abbrev-type="nlm-ta">EGUsphere</abbrev-journal-title>
</journal-title-group>
<publisher><publisher-name>Copernicus Publications</publisher-name>
<publisher-loc>Göttingen, Germany</publisher-loc>
</publisher>
</journal-meta>
<article-meta>
<article-id pub-id-type="doi">10.5194/egusphere-2026-3490</article-id>
<title-group>
<article-title>TC-ANet 1: A temporally joint model for post-processing ensemble weather forecasts for in-situ locations and multiple target variables</article-title>
</title-group>
<contrib-group><contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Mlakar</surname>
<given-names>Peter</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1">
<sup>1</sup>
</xref>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff2">
<sup>2</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Faganeli Pucer</surname>
<given-names>Jana</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff2">
<sup>2</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
</contrib-group><aff id="aff1">
<label>1</label>
<addr-line>Slovenian Environment Agency, Slovenia</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff2">
<label>2</label>
<addr-line>University of Ljubljana, Faculty of Computer and Information Science, Slovenia</addr-line>
</aff>
<pub-date pub-type="epub">
<day>19</day>
<month>10</month>
<year>2026</year>
</pub-date>
<volume>2026</volume>
<fpage>1</fpage>
<lpage>39</lpage>
<permissions>
<copyright-statement>Copyright: &#x000a9; 2026 Peter Mlakar</copyright-statement>
<copyright-year>2026</copyright-year>
<license license-type="open-access">
<license-p>This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License. To view a copy of this licence, visit <ext-link ext-link-type="uri"  xlink:href="https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/</ext-link></license-p>
</license>
</permissions>
<self-uri xlink:href="https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2026/egusphere-2026-3490/">This article is available from https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2026/egusphere-2026-3490/</self-uri>
<self-uri xlink:href="https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2026/egusphere-2026-3490/egusphere-2026-3490.pdf">The full text article is available as a PDF file from https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2026/egusphere-2026-3490/egusphere-2026-3490.pdf</self-uri>
<abstract>
<p>Ensemble forecast post-processing techniques are often applied to improve the reliability of the weather forecast. These methods issue a future predictive distribution which is better calibrated and as sharp as possible. While the field of forecast post-processing has been rapidly advancing, especially with the advent of machine learning, many challenges remain: post-processing models often assume the target distribution or require specialised distributions for each target variable, they require separate models for each lead time or location, and frequently forgo the explicit modelling of the temporal correlation structure in the target variable. In this work, we aim to address the outlined shortcomings by proposing a novel post-processing method which combines normalising spline flows and flow matching. This combination allows us to efficiently estimate marginal distributions and generate temporally correlated post-processed forecasts, useful for downstream applications. We evaluate our model on the openly available EUPPBench dataset, post-processing three target weather variables: temperature, precipitation, and wind gusts. Our method achieves competitive results for both marginal and joint distribution post-processing for all considered weather variables, rivalling current state-of-the-art techniques. Furthermore, we show that our joint lead-time post-processing approach extends its performance margin in a predictor-limited environment compared to per-lead-time methods.</p>
</abstract>
<counts><page-count count="39"/></counts>
<funding-group>
<award-group id="gs1">
<funding-source>The Slovenian Research and Innovation Agency</funding-source>
<award-id>P2-0209</award-id>
</award-group>
</funding-group>
</article-meta>
</front>
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