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<front>
<journal-meta>
<journal-id journal-id-type="publisher">EGUsphere</journal-id>
<journal-title-group>
<journal-title>EGUsphere</journal-title>
<abbrev-journal-title abbrev-type="publisher">EGUsphere</abbrev-journal-title>
<abbrev-journal-title abbrev-type="nlm-ta">EGUsphere</abbrev-journal-title>
</journal-title-group>
<issn pub-type="epub"></issn>
<publisher><publisher-name>Copernicus Publications</publisher-name>
<publisher-loc>Göttingen, Germany</publisher-loc>
</publisher>
</journal-meta>
<article-meta>
<article-id pub-id-type="doi">10.5194/egusphere-2026-3461</article-id>
<title-group>
<article-title>Climatic controls on interannual mass balance of Arctic glaciers and ice caps</article-title>
</title-group>
<contrib-group><contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Ma</surname>
<given-names>Xiaojun</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1">
<sup>1</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>King</surname>
<given-names>Matt</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5611-9498</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff2">
<sup>2</sup>
</xref>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff3">
<sup>3</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Bamber</surname>
<given-names>Jonathan</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2280-2819</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff4">
<sup>4</sup>
</xref>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff5">
<sup>5</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Liu</surname>
<given-names>Bin</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff6">
<sup>6</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Sun</surname>
<given-names>Wenke</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1">
<sup>1</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Wang</surname>
<given-names>Qiuyu</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0002-4624-1489</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1">
<sup>1</sup>
</xref>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff4">
<sup>4</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
</contrib-group><aff id="aff1">
<label>1</label>
<addr-line>State Key Laboratory of Earth System Numerical Modeling and Application, College of Earth and Planetary Sciences,  University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, 100049, China</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff2">
<label>2</label>
<addr-line>School of Geography, Planning, and Spatial Sciences and Institute for Marine and Antarctic Studies, University of  Tasmania, Hobart, TAS, 7001, Australia</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff3">
<label>3</label>
<addr-line>The Australian Centre for Excellence in Antarctic Science, University of Tasmania, Hobart, TAS, 7001, Australia</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff4">
<label>4</label>
<addr-line>Bristol Glaciology Centre, School of Geographical Sciences, University of Bristol, BS8 1SS, UK</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff5">
<label>5</label>
<addr-line>Chair of Data Science in Earth Observation, Department of Aerospace and Geodesy, Technical University of Munich,  Munich, 80333, Germany</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff6">
<label>6</label>
<addr-line>School of Aeronautic Engineering, Changsha University of Science and Technology, Changsha, 410114, China</addr-line>
</aff>
<pub-date pub-type="epub">
<day>08</day>
<month>07</month>
<year>2026</year>
</pub-date>
<volume>2026</volume>
<fpage>1</fpage>
<lpage>23</lpage>
<permissions>
<copyright-statement>Copyright: &#x000a9; 2026 Xiaojun Ma et al.</copyright-statement>
<copyright-year>2026</copyright-year>
<license license-type="open-access">
<license-p>This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License. To view a copy of this licence, visit <ext-link ext-link-type="uri"  xlink:href="https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/</ext-link></license-p>
</license>
</permissions>
<self-uri xlink:href="https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2026/egusphere-2026-3461/">This article is available from https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2026/egusphere-2026-3461/</self-uri>
<self-uri xlink:href="https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2026/egusphere-2026-3461/egusphere-2026-3461.pdf">The full text article is available as a PDF file from https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2026/egusphere-2026-3461/egusphere-2026-3461.pdf</self-uri>
<abstract>
<p>Interannual variability in glacier and ice cap (GIC) mass balance can be large amplitude, masking the underlying decadal trends associated with external forcing. Here we apply Independent Component Analysis (ICA) to global GIC mass anomalies derived from the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) mission and GRACE Follow-On (GRACE-FO) satellite gravimetry missions over 2002&amp;ndash;2024. We show that Arctic glacier regions dominate the leading interannual variability in the global gravimetry record, and account for more than two-thirds of recent global GIC mass loss. Two leading Arctic ICA modes explain ~75 % of interannual variance and are associated with North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO)- and Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO)-related multi-year climate variability. Multiple linear regression further shows that variability linked to these climate modes explains much of the interannual glacier-mass variability in Arctic glacier regions and significantly affects trend estimates. This effect is most pronounced in Alaska, where the uncorrected trend is about 25 % less negative than the value after accounting for this variability (&amp;minus;69 &amp;plusmn; 21 Gt yr⁻&amp;sup1; versus &amp;minus;92 &amp;plusmn; 16 Gt yr⁻&amp;sup1;). These results suggest that persistent North Atlantic and Pacific circulation variability can substantially change regional glacier mass loss, with direct implications for interpreting recent Arctic glacier change and their secular trends driven by external forcing.</p>
</abstract>
<counts><page-count count="23"/></counts>
<funding-group>
<award-group id="gs1">
<funding-source>National Natural Science Foundation of China</funding-source>
<award-id>42474007</award-id>
<award-id>42104010</award-id>
<award-id>42174097</award-id>
<award-id>41974093</award-id>
<award-id>41774088</award-id>
<award-id>41904003</award-id>
</award-group>
<award-group id="gs2">
<funding-source>Australian Research Council</funding-source>
<award-id>SR200100008</award-id>
</award-group>
<award-group id="gs3">
<funding-source>Australian Research Council</funding-source>
<award-id>FL250100022</award-id>
</award-group>
<award-group id="gs4">
<funding-source>Horizon 2020</funding-source>
<award-id>101003472</award-id>
</award-group>
</funding-group>
</article-meta>
</front>
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